Ecological and methodological drivers of species’ distribution and phenology responses to climate change

Climate change is shifting species’ distribution and phenology. Ecological traits, such as mobility or reproductive mode, explain variation in observed rates of shift for some taxa. However, estimates of relationships between traits and climate responses could be influenced by how responses are measured. We compiled a global data set of 651 published marine species’ responses to climate change, from 47 papers on distribution shifts and 32 papers on phenology change. We assessed the relative importance of two classes of predictors of the rate of change, ecological traits of the responding taxa and methodological approaches for quantifying biological responses. Methodological differences explained 22% of the variation in range shifts, more than the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses from traits was hindered by poor representation of species from the tropics, where temperature isotherms are moving most rapidly. Thus, the mean rate of distribution change may be underestimated by this and other global syntheses. Our analyses indicate that methodological approaches should be explicitly considered when designing, analysing and comparing results among studies. To improve climate impact studies, we recommend that (1) reanalyses of existing time series state how the existing data sets may limit the inferences about possible climate responses; (2) qualitative comparisons of species’ responses across different studies be limited to studies with similar methodological approaches; (3) meta‐analyses of climate responses include methodological attributes as covariates; and (4) that new time series be designed to include the detection of early warnings of change or ecologically relevant change. Greater consideration of methodological attributes will improve the accuracy of analyses that seek to quantify the role of climate change in species’ distribution and phenology changes.     

Effect of the plastic pollutant bisphenol A on the biology of aquatic organisms: A meta‐analysis

Plastic pollution is a global environmental concern. In particular, the endocrine‐disrupting chemical bisphenol A (BPA) is nearly ubiquitous in aquatic environments globally, and it continues to be produced and released into the environment in large quantities. BPA disrupts hormone signalling and can thereby have far‐reaching physiological and ecological consequences. However, it is not clear whether BPA has consistent effects across biological traits and phylogenetic groups. Hence, the aim of this study was to establish the current state of knowledge of the effect of BPA in aquatic organisms. We show that overall BPA exposure affected aquatic organisms negatively. It increased abnormalities, altered behaviour and had negative effects on the cardiovascular system, development, growth and survival. Early life stages were the most sensitive to BPA exposure in invertebrates and vertebrates, and invertebrates and amphibians seem to be particularly affected. These data provide a context for management efforts in the face of increasing plastic pollution. However, data availability is highly biased with respect to taxonomic groups and traits studies, and in the geographical distribution of sample collection. The latter is the case for both measurements of the biological responses and assessing pollution levels in water ways. Future research effort should be directed towards biological systems, such as studying endocrine disruption directly, and geographical areas (particularly in Africa and Asia) which we identify to be currently undersampled.     

Trait‐based approaches to analyze links between the drivers of change and ecosystem services: Synthesizing existing evidence and future challenges

Understanding the responses of biodiversity to drivers of change and the effects of biodiversity on ecosystem properties and ecosystem services is a key challenge in the context of global environmental change. We performed a systematic review and meta‐analysis of the scientific literature linking direct drivers of change and ecosystem services via functional traits of three taxonomic groups (vegetation, invertebrates, and vertebrates) to: (1) uncover trends and research biases in this field; and (2) synthesize existing empirical evidence. Our results show the existence of important biases in published studies related to ecosystem types, taxonomic groups, direct drivers of change, ecosystem services, geographical range, and the spatial scale of analysis. We found multiple evidence of links between drivers and services mediated by functional traits, particularly between land‐use changes and regulating services in vegetation and invertebrates. Seventy‐five functional traits were recorded in our sample. However, few of these functional traits were repeatedly found to be associated with both the species responses to direct drivers of change (response traits) and the species effects on the provision of ecosystem services (effect traits). Our results highlight the existence of potential “key functional traits,” understood as those that have the capacity to influence the provision of multiple ecosystem services, while responding to specific drivers of change, across a variety of systems and organisms. Identifying “key functional traits” would help to develop robust indicator systems to monitor changes in biodiversity and their effects on ecosystem functioning and ecosystem services supply.     

Terrestrial insects and climate change: adaptive responses in key traits

Understanding and predicting how adaptation will contribute to species' resilience to climate change will be paramount to successfully managing biodiversity for conservation, agriculture, and human health‐related purposes. Making predictions that capture how species will respond to climate change requires an understanding of how key traits and environmental drivers interact to shape fitness in a changing world. Current trait‐based models suggest that low‐ to mid‐latitude populations will be most at risk, although these models focus on upper thermal limits, which may not be the most important trait driving species' distributions and fitness under climate change. In this review, we discuss how different traits (stress, fitness and phenology) might contribute and interact to shape insect responses to climate change. We examine the potential for adaptive genetic and plastic responses in these key traits and show that, although there is evidence of range shifts and trait changes, explicit consideration of what underpins these changes, be that genetic or plastic responses, is largely missing. Despite little empirical evidence for adaptive shifts, incorporating adaptation into models of climate change resilience is essential for predicting how species will respond under climate change. We are making some headway, although more data are needed, especially from taxonomic groups outside of Drosophila, and across diverse geographical regions. Climate change responses are likely to be complex, and such complexity will be difficult to capture in laboratory experiments. Moving towards well designed field experiments would allow us to not only capture this complexity, but also study more diverse species.     

Bat responses to climate change: a systematic review

Understanding how species respond to climate change is key to informing vulnerability assessments and designing effective conservation strategies, yet research efforts on wildlife responses to climate change fail to deliver a representative overview due to inherent biases. Bats are a species-rich, globally distributed group of organisms that are thought to be particularly sensitive to the effects of climate change because of their high surface-to-volume ratios and low reproductive rates. We systematically reviewed the literature on bat responses to climate change to provide an overview of the current state of knowledge, identify research gaps and biases and highlight future research needs. We found that studies are geographically biased towards Europe, North America and Australia, and temperate and Mediterranean biomes, thus missing a substantial proportion of bat diversity and thermal responses. Less than half of the published studies provide concrete evidence for bat responses to climate change. For over a third of studied bat species, response evidence is only based on predictive species distribution models. Consequently, the most frequently reported responses involve range shifts (57% of species) and changes in patterns of species diversity (26%). Bats showed a variety of responses, including both positive (e.g. range expansion and population increase) and negative responses (range contraction and population decrease), although responses to extreme events were always negative or neutral. Spatial responses varied in their outcome and across families, with almost all taxonomic groups featuring both range expansions and contractions, while demographic responses were strongly biased towards negative outcomes, particularly among Pteropodidae and Molossidae. The commonly used correlative modelling approaches can be applied to many species, but do not provide mechanistic insight into behavioural, physiological, phenological or genetic responses. There was a paucity of experimental studies (26%), and only a small proportion of the 396 bat species covered in the examined studies were studied using long-term and/or experimental approaches (11%), even though they are more informative about the effects of climate change. We emphasise the need for more empirical studies to unravel the multifaceted nature of bats' responses to climate change and the need for standardised study designs that will enable synthesis and meta-analysis of the literature. Finally, we stress the importance of overcoming geographic and taxonomic disparities through strengthening research capacity in the Global South to provide a more comprehensive view of terrestrial biodiversity responses to climate change.     

Warmer and richer? Predicting the impact of climate warming on species richness in small temperate waterbodies

Climate change is expected to affect communities worldwide. Many studies focus on responses at the regional level and show an increase in species richness. However, less is known about the consequences of climate change at the local scale (in ecosystems). Small waterbodies, such as ponds, could play an important role for the assessment of the impact of future changes in climate at the local level. We evaluated here the potential changes due to climate warming in the species richness for various groups (plants, snails, beetles, dragonflies, amphibians) across 113 lowland and high altitude ponds in Switzerland. We modelled the relationships between species richness and environmental variables (including temperature) and predicted species richness changes for the end of the century (2090–2100; using the A2 IPCC scenario). Temperature rise could significantly increase pond species richness. For the five taxonomic groups pooled, species richness would potentially increase from 41 to 75 (+83%) in lowland ponds. In presently species‐poor high altitude ponds, the potential increase would be particularly marked, with a proportional increase (+150%; from 14 to 35 species) almost double that in lowland areas. A strong increase in species richness also resulted from models including changes in additional variables, such as landuse or water quality. Future reductions in water quality (e.g. increase in nutrients) may limit the predicted increase in lowland species richness or, conversely, result in a greater increase in species richness in high altitude areas. Nutrient enrichment is shown to affect the taxonomic groups differentially, with plant species richness the most negatively influenced. Climate warming could therefore affect species richness of temperate ponds not only regionally, but also at the local, within ecosystems‐scale; species richness could increase markedly in temperate regions, and especially so at higher altitude.     

Fish communities diverge in species but converge in traits over three decades of warming

Describing the spatial and temporal dynamics of communities is essential for understanding the impacts of global environmental change on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Trait‐based approaches can provide better insight than species‐based (i.e. taxonomic) approaches into community assembly and ecosystem functioning, but comparing species and trait dynamics may reveal important patterns for understanding community responses to environmental change. Here, we used a 33‐year database of fish monitoring to compare the spatio‐temporal dynamics of taxonomic and trait structure in North Sea fish communities. We found that the majority of variation in both taxonomic and trait structure was explained by a pronounced spatial gradient, with distinct communities in the southern and northern North Sea related to depth, sea surface temperature, salinity and bed shear stress. Both taxonomic and trait structure changed significantly over time; however taxonomically, communities in the south and north diverged towards different species, becoming more dissimilar over time, yet they converged towards the same traits regardless of species differences. In particular, communities shifted towards smaller, faster growing species with higher thermal preferences and pelagic water column position. Although taxonomic structure changed over time, its spatial distribution remained relatively stable, whereas in trait structure, the southern zone of the North Sea shifted northward and expanded, leading to homogenization. Our findings suggest that global environmental change, notably climate warming, will lead to convergence towards traits more adapted for novel environments regardless of species composition.     

Habitat is more important than climate and animal richness at shaping latitudinal variation in plant diversity in China

Species data from 249 National Nature Reserves in China were used to identify potential underlying drivers of latitudinal gradients in plant diversity. We used generalized linear models to assess correlations between predictor and plant species richness. Variance partitioning was then used to decompose the variation in plant richness into different taxonomic levels among the three groups of predictors (i.e., climate, habitat and animal). We found that species richness showed significant latitudinal trends in richness (p?<?0.001). This remained true when examining gymnosperms, angiosperms and ferns individually. Climate and habitat variables explained more variation in richness across different plant groups than did animal richness. Annual precipitation was the best climate variable across different taxonomic plants groups, and soil pH and elevation range were the best habitat variables across different taxonomic plant groups. The independent effects of habitat variables were higher than that of climate and animal variables across different taxonomic plant groups. Finally, climate, habitat heterogeneity, and animal richness explain 48.8% of the variation in total species richness, 28.2% in gymnosperm richness, 44.2% in angiosperm richness, and 38.9% in fern richness.     

Can life-history traits predict the response of forb populations to changes in climate variability?

1.  Climate change will cause changes in average temperature and precipitation as well as increased fluctuations around the mean, yet few studies have considered the impacts of altered climate variability on plant populations. We tested whether life-history traits (expected life span, generation time and seed size) can predict plant responses to increased environmental variability across similar plant species sharing the same habitat.
2.  We combined long-term demographic data on 10 prairie forb species with stochastic demography techniques to estimate the effects of potential changes in matrix element means and variances on the long-term stochastic population growth rate.
3.  For all 10 species, recruitment had higher contribution and elasticity values than survival, meaning that climate change is more likely to influence population growth through effects on recruitment than on survival for these relatively short-lived forbs. Species with longer generation times had lower elasticities to increases in matrix element variability.
4.   Synthesis. Our analysis of a unique, long-term data set suggests that longer-lived plant species will be less vulnerable to the effects of future increases in climate variability. While this relationship was previously reported for diverse taxa from many locations, our results show that it also applies within a guild of short-lived species from a single community. The generality of the pattern demonstrates the potential for using life-history traits to make predictions about which species may be the most vulnerable to climate change.     

Mammalian niche conservation through deep time

Climate change alters species distributions, causing plants and animals to move north or to higher elevations with current warming. Bioclimatic models predict species distributions based on extant realized niches and assume niche conservation. Here, we evaluate if proxies for niches (i.e., range areas) are conserved at the family level through deep time, from the Eocene to the Pleistocene. We analyze the occurrence of all mammalian families in the continental USA, calculating range area, percent range area occupied, range area rank, and range polygon centroids during each epoch. Percent range area occupied significantly increases from the Oligocene to the Miocene and again from the Pliocene to the Pleistocene; however, mammalian families maintain statistical concordance between rank orders across time. Families with greater taxonomic diversity occupy a greater percent of available range area during each epoch and net changes in taxonomic diversity are significantly positively related to changes in percent range area occupied from the Eocene to the Pleistocene. Furthermore, gains and losses in generic and species diversity are remarkably consistent with ~2.3 species gained per generic increase. Centroids demonstrate southeastern shifts from the Eocene through the Pleistocene that may correspond to major environmental events and/or climate changes during the Cenozoic. These results demonstrate range conservation at the family level and support the idea that niche conservation at higher taxonomic levels operates over deep time and may be controlled by life history traits. Furthermore, families containing megafauna and/or terminal Pleistocene extinction victims do not incur significantly greater declines in range area rank than families containing only smaller taxa and/or only survivors, from the Pliocene to Pleistocene. Collectively, these data evince the resilience of families to climate and/or environmental change in deep time, the absence of terminal Pleistocene "extinction prone" families, and provide valuable insights to understanding mammalian responses to current climate change.     

Structural and functional responses of invertebrate communities to climate change and flow regulation in alpine catchments

Understanding and predicting how biological communities respond to climate change is critical for assessing biodiversity vulnerability and guiding conservation efforts. Glacier‐ and snow‐fed rivers are one of the most sensitive ecosystems to climate change, and can provide early warning of wider‐scale changes. These rivers are frequently used for hydropower production but there is minimal understanding of how biological communities are influenced by climate change in a context of flow regulation. This study sheds light on this issue by disentangling structural (water temperature preference, taxonomic composition, alpha, beta and gamma diversities) and functional (functional traits, diversity, richness, evenness, dispersion and redundancy) effects of climate change in interaction with flow regulation in the Alps. For this, we compared environmental and aquatic invertebrate data collected in the 1970s and 2010s in regulated and unregulated alpine catchments. We hypothesized a replacement of cold‐adapted species by warming‐tolerant ones, high temporal and spatial turnover in taxa and trait composition, along with reduced taxonomic and functional diversities in consequence of climate change. We expected communities in regulated rivers to respond more drastically due to additive or synergistic effects between flow regulation and climate change. We found divergent structural but convergent functional responses between free‐flowing and regulated catchments. Although cold‐adapted taxa decreased in both of them, greater colonization and spread of thermophilic species was found in the free‐flowing one, resulting in higher spatial and temporal turnover. Since the 1970s, taxonomic diversity increased in the free flowing but decreased in the regulated catchment due to biotic homogenization. Colonization by taxa with new functional strategies (i.e. multivoltine taxa with small body size, resistance forms, aerial dispersion and reproduction by clutches) increased functional diversity but decreased functional redundancy through time. These functional changes could jeopardize the ability of aquatic communities facing intensification of ongoing climate change or new anthropogenic disturbances.     

Functional and Phylogenetic Relatedness in Temporary Wetland Invertebrates: Current Macroecological Patterns and Implications for Future Climatic Change Scenarios

In freshwater ecosystems, species compositions are known to be determined hierarchically by large to small‑scale environmental factors, based on the biological traits of the organisms. However, in ephemeral habitats this heuristic framework remains largely untested. Although temporary wetland faunas are constrained by a local filter (i.e., desiccation), we propose its magnitude may still depend on large-scale climate characteristics. If this is true, climate should be related to the degree of functional and taxonomic relatedness of invertebrate communities inhabiting seasonal wetlands. We tested this hypothesis in two ways. First, based on 52 biological traits for invertebrates, we conducted a case study to explore functional trends among temperate seasonal wetlands differing in the harshness (i.e., dryness) of their dry season. After finding evidence of trait filtering, we addressed whether it could be generalized across a broader climatic scale. To this end, a meta-analysis (225 seasonal wetlands spread across broad climatic categories: Arid, Temperate, and Cold) allowed us to identify whether an equivalent climate-dependent pattern of trait richness was consistent between the Nearctic and the Western Palearctic. Functional overlap of invertebrates increased from mild (i.e., Temperate) to harsher climates (i.e., Arid and Cold), and phylogenetic clustering (using taxonomy as a surrogate) was highest in Arid and lowest in Temperate wetlands. We show that, (i) as has been described in streams, higher relatedness than would be expected by chance is generally observed in seasonal wetland invertebrate communities; and (ii) this relatedness is not constant but climate-dependent, with the climate under which a given seasonal wetland is located determining the functional overlap and the phylogenetic clustering of the community. Finally, using a space-for-time substitution approach we suggest our results may anticipate how the invertebrate biodiversity embedded in these vulnerable and often overlooked ecosystems will be affected by long-term climate change.     

Climate‐induced changes in the distribution of freshwater fish: observed and predicted trends

1. Climate change could be one of the main threats faced by aquatic ecosystems and freshwater biodiversity. Improved understanding, monitoring and forecasting of its effects are thus crucial for researchers, policy makers and biodiversity managers. 2. Here, we provide a review and some meta‐analyses of the literature reporting both observed and predicted climate‐induced effects on the distribution of freshwater fish. After reviewing three decades of research, we summarise how methods in assessing the effects of climate change have evolved, and whether current knowledge is geographically or taxonomically biased. We conducted multispecies qualitative and quantitative analyses to find out whether the observed responses of freshwater fish to recent changes in climate are consistent with those predicted under future climate scenarios. 3. We highlight the fact that, in recent years, freshwater fish distributions have already been affected by contemporary climate change in ways consistent with anticipated responses under future climate change scenarios: the range of most cold‐water species could be reduced or shift to higher altitude or latitude, whereas that of cool‐ and warm‐water species could expand or contract. 4. Most evidence about the effects of climate change is underpinned by the large number of studies devoted to cold‐water fish species (mainly salmonids). Our knowledge is still incomplete, however, particularly due to taxonomic and geographic biases. 5. Observed and expected responses are well correlated among families, suggesting that model predictions are supported by empirical evidence. The observed effects are of greater magnitude and show higher variability than the predicted effects, however, indicating that other drivers of changes may be interacting with climate and seriously affecting freshwater fish. 6. Finally, we suggest avenues of research required to address current gaps in what we know about the climate‐induced effects on freshwater fish distribution, including (i) the need for more long‐term data analyses, (ii) the assessment of climate‐induced effects at higher levels of organisation (e.g. assemblages), (iii) methodological improvements (e.g. accounting for uncertainty among projections and species’ dispersal abilities, combining both distributional and empirical approaches and including multiple non‐climatic stressors) and (iv) systematic confrontation of observed versus predicted effects across multi‐species assemblages and at several levels of biological organisation (i.e. populations and assemblages).     

Transgenerational effects benefit offspring across diverse environments: a meta‐analysis in plants and animals

The adaptive value of transgenerational effects (the ancestor environmental effects on offspring) in changing environments has received much attention in recent years, but the related empirical evidence remains equivocal. Here, we conducted a meta‐analysis summarising 139 experimental studies in plants and animals with 1170 effect sizes to investigate the generality of transgenerational effects across taxa, traits, and environmental contexts. It was found that transgenerational effects generally enhanced offspring performance in response to both stressful and benign conditions. The strongest effects are in annual plants and invertebrates, whereas vertebrates appear to benefit mostly under benign conditions, and perennial plants show hardly any transgenerational responses at all. These differences among taxonomic/life‐history groups possibly reflect that vertebrates can avoid stressful conditions through their mobility, and longer‐lived plants have alternative strategies. In addition to environmental contexts and taxonomic/life‐history groups, transgenerational effects also varied among traits and developmental stages of ancestors and offspring, but the effects were similarly strong across three generations of offspring. By way of a more comprehensive data set and a different effect size, our results differ from those of a recent meta‐analysis, suggesting that transgenerational effects are widespread, strong and persistent and can substantially impact the responses of plants and animals to changing environments.     

Temporal and Taxonomic Variability in Response of Fauna to Riparian Restoration

Evaluating the success of restoration projects requires well‐designed studies. Among the decisions that need to be made are what taxonomic groups to study and when to conduct the monitoring. To explore how these decisions can influence assessments of restoration success, we examined species richness and composition data collected over several years on different terrestrial fauna (landbirds, rodents, bees, and beetles) at Sacramento River restoration and remnant riparian sites. Our selection of study organisms enabled us to ask whether variability in species richness among restoration sites is less for vagile taxa than for sedentary taxa, and if invertebrates display greater variability among sites than vertebrates. Our results demonstrate that responses to restoration can vary depending upon the season when it is assessed, and the taxa that are studied. For all taxa except bees, there was considerable variability in the relative performance of taxa at restoration sites from one sampling date to the next, such that the relative ranking of the sites often changed dramatically. Comparisons of β ‐diversity (variability in species richness across sites) revealed that certain taxonomic groups were more spatially variable in their response to restoration than others. Among vertebrates, sedentary taxa (rodents) had significantly higher variability in species richness across sites than highly vagile taxa (birds); however, no such pattern was observed for invertebrates. Overall, vertebrates had lower variability than invertebrates, suggesting that evaluations of restoration success based on a few better‐known taxonomic groups (e.g., birds, rodents) may be inadequate to represent the biodiversity response of other groups (e.g., insects).     

Climate extremes are associated with invertebrate taxonomic and functional composition in mountain lakes

Climate change is expected to increase climate variability and the occurrence of extreme climatic events, with potentially devastating effects on aquatic ecosystems. However, little is known about the role of climate extremes in structuring aquatic communities or the interplay between climate and local abiotic and biotic factors. Here, we examine the relative influence of climate and local abiotic and biotic conditions on biodiversity and community structure in lake invertebrates. We sampled aquatic invertebrates and measured environmental variables in 19 lakes throughout California, USA, to test hypotheses of the relationship between climate, local biotic and environmental conditions, and the taxonomic and functional structure of aquatic invertebrate communities. We found that, while local biotic and abiotic factors such as habitat availability and conductivity were the most consistent predictors of alpha diversity, extreme climate conditions such as maximum summer temperature and dry‐season precipitation were most often associated with multivariate taxonomic and functional composition. Specifically, sites with high maximum temperatures and low dry‐season precipitation housed communities containing high abundances of large predatory taxa. Furthermore, both climate dissimilarity and abiotic dissimilarity determined taxonomic turnover among sites (beta diversity). These findings suggest that while local‐scale environmental variables may predict alpha diversity, climatic variability is important to consider when projecting broad‐scale aquatic community responses to the extreme temperature and precipitation events that are expected for much of the world during the next century.     

Traits help explain species' performance away from their climate niche centre

Aim

Climate change impacts on biota are variable across sites, among species and throughout individual species' ranges. Niche theory predicts that population performance should decline as site climate becomes increasingly different from the species' climate niche centre, though studies find significant variation from these predictions. Here, we propose that predictions about climate responses can be improved by incorporating species' trait information.

Location

Europe.

Methods

We used observations of plant species abundance change over time to assess variation in climate difference sensitivity (CDS), defined as how species performance (colonization, extinction and abundance change) relates to the difference of site climate from the mean temperature and precipitation of each species' range. We then investigated if leaf economics, plant size and seed mass traits were associated with the species' CDS.

Results

Species that performed better (e.g. increased in abundance) towards sites progressively cooler than their niche centre were shorter and had more resource-acquisitive leaves (i.e. lower leaf dry matter content or LDMC) relative to species with zero or the opposite pattern of temperature difference sensitivity. This result supports the hypothesis that if sites cooler than niche centres are more stressful for a species, then shorter stature is advantageous compared with taller species. The LDMC result suggests the environment selects for more resource-acquisitive leaf strategies towards relatively cooler climates with shorter growing seasons, counter to expectations that conservative strategies would be favoured in such environments. We found few consistent relationships between precipitation difference sensitivities and traits.

Main Conclusions

The results supported key a priori foundations on how trait-based plant strategies dictate species responses to climate variation away from their niche centre. Furthermore, plant height emerged as the most consistent trait that varied with species CDS, suggesting height will be key for theory development around species response to climate change.     

Salamander morph frequencies do not evolve as predicted in response to 40 years of climate change

The global climate is changing rapidly, yet biotic responses remain uncertain. Most studies focus on changes in species ranges or plastic responses like phenology, but adaptive evolution could be equally important. Studying evolutionary responses is challenging given limited historical data and a poor understanding of genetically variable traits under selection. We take advantage of a historical dataset to test for an adaptive response to climate change in a widespread, polymorphic amphibian, the eastern red‐backed salamander Plethodon cinereus. We resurveyed color morph frequencies across New England to test for an adaptive shift in response to climate change. We modeled historical and present‐day morph proportions as a function of climate and tested the accuracy of predictions both within and across different time periods. Our models showed moderate accuracy when predicting morph frequencies within time periods, but poor accuracy across time periods. Despite substantial changes in climate and significant relationships between morph frequency and climate variables within periods, we found no evidence for the predicted shift in morph frequencies across New England. The relationship between climate and color morph frequencies is likely more complex than originally suggested, potentially involving the interplay of additional factors such as microclimate variation, land use changes, and frequency‐dependent selection. Model extrapolation and changes in the correlation structure of climate variables also likely contributed to poor predictive ability. Evolution could provide a means to moderate the effects of climate change on many species. However, we often do not understand the direct links between climate variation, traits, and fitness. Therefore, forecasting climate‐mediated evolution remains an ongoing and important challenge for understanding climate change threats to species.     

The importance of phylogeny to the study of phenological response to global climate change

Climate change has resulted in major changes in the phenology—i.e. the timing of seasonal activities, such as flowering and bird migration—of some species but not others. These differential responses have been shown to result in ecological mismatches that can have negative fitness consequences. However, the ways in which climate change has shaped changes in biodiversity within and across communities are not well understood. Here, we build on our previous results that established a link between plant species'' phenological response to climate change and a phylogenetic bias in species'' decline in the eastern United States. We extend a similar approach to plant and bird communities in the United States and the UK that further demonstrates that climate change has differentially impacted species based on their phylogenetic relatedness and shared phenological responses. In plants, phenological responses to climate change are often shared among closely related species (i.e. clades), even between geographically disjunct communities. And in some cases, this has resulted in a phylogenetically biased pattern of non-native species success. In birds, the pattern of decline is phylogenetically biased but is not solely explained by phenological response, which suggests that other traits may better explain this pattern. These results illustrate the ways in which phylogenetic thinking can aid in making generalizations of practical importance and enhance efforts to predict species'' responses to future climate change.     

Responses of foliage‐living spider assemblage composition and traits to a climatic gradient in Themeda grasslands

For speciose, but poorly known groups, such as terrestrial arthropods, functional traits present a potential avenue to assist in predicting responses to environmental change. Species turnover is common along environmental gradients, but it is unclear how this is reflected in species traits. Community‐level change in arthropod traits, other than body size, has rarely been explored across spatial scales comparable to those examined here. We hypothesized that the composition and morphological traits of spider assemblages would differ across a gradient of climate and habitat structure. We examined foliage‐living spider assemblages associated with Themeda triandra grasslands along a 900 km climatic gradient in south‐eastern Australia. We used sweep‐netting to collect T. triandra‐associated spiders and counted juveniles and identified adults. We also measured morphological traits of adult spiders and noted their hunting mode. Associations with measures of habitat structure were less consistent than relationships with climate. Both juvenile and adult spiders were more abundant in warmer sites, although species richness was not affected by temperature. We found distinct turnover in species composition along the climatic gradient, with hunting spiders, particularly crab spiders (Thomisidae), making up a greater proportion of assemblages in warmer climates. A range of traits of spiders correlated with the climatic gradient. For example, larger spider species and species that were active hunters were more common in warmer climates. Changes in morphological traits across species, rather than within species drove the morphology‐climate relationship. Strong climate‐trait correlations suggest that it may be possible to predict changes in functional traits of assemblages in response to anthropogenic disturbances such as climate change.