Independent Demographic Responses to Climate Change among Temperate and Tropical Milksnakes (Colubridae: Genus Lampropeltis)

The effects of Late Quaternary climate change have been examined for many temperate New World taxa, but the impact of Pleistocene glacial cycles on Neotropical taxa is less well understood, specifically with respect to changes in population demography. Here, we examine historical demographic trends for six species of milksnake with representatives in both the temperate and tropical Americas to determine if species share responses to climate change as a taxon or by area (i.e., temperate versus tropical environments). Using a multilocus dataset, we test for the demographic signature of population expansion and decline using non-genealogical summary statistics, as well as coalescent-based methods. In addition, we determine whether range sizes are correlated with effective population sizes for milksnakes. Results indicate that there are no identifiable trends with respect to demographic response based on location, and that species responded to changing climates independently, with tropical taxa showing greater instability. There is also no correlation between range size and effective population size, with the largest population size belonging to the species with the smallest geographic distribution. Our study highlights the importance of not generalizing the demographic histories of taxa by region and further illustrates that the New World tropics may not have been a stable refuge during the Pleistocene.     

Population size influences amphibian detection probability: implications for biodiversity monitoring programs

Monitoring is an integral part of species conservation. Monitoring programs must take imperfect detection of species into account in order to be reliable. Theory suggests that detection probability may be determined by population size but this relationship has not yet been assessed empirically. Population size is particularly important because it may induce heterogeneity in detection probability and thereby cause bias in estimates of biodiversity. We used a site occupancy model to analyse data from a volunteer-based amphibian monitoring program to assess how well different variables explain variation in detection probability. An index to population size best explained detection probabilities for four out of six species (to avoid circular reasoning, we used the count of individuals at a previous site visit as an index to current population size). The relationship between the population index and detection probability was positive. Commonly used weather variables best explained detection probabilities for two out of six species. Estimates of site occupancy probabilities differed depending on whether the population index was or was not used to model detection probability. The relationship between the population index and detectability has implications for the design of monitoring and species conservation. Most importantly, because many small populations are likely to be overlooked, monitoring programs should be designed in such a way that small populations are not overlooked. The results also imply that methods cannot be standardized in such a way that detection probabilities are constant. As we have shown here, one can easily account for variation in population size in the analysis of data from long-term monitoring programs by using counts of individuals from surveys at the same site in previous years. Accounting for variation in population size is important because it can affect the results of long-term monitoring programs and ultimately the conservation of imperiled species.     

Temporal trends in genetic data and effective population size support efficacy of management practices in critically endangered dusky gopher frogs (Lithobates sevosus)

Monitoring temporal changes in population genetic diversity and effective population size can provide vital information on future viability. The dusky gopher frog, Lithobates sevosus, is a critically endangered species found only in coastal Mississippi, with low genetic variability as a consequence of isolation and population size reduction. Conservation management practices have been implemented, but their efficacy has not been addressed. We genotyped individuals collected 1997–2014 to determine temporal trends in population genetic variation, structure, and effective size. Observed and expected heterozygosity and allelic richness revealed temporally stable, but low, levels of genetic variation. Positive levels of inbreeding were found in each year. There was weak genetic structure among years, which can be attributed to increased effects of genetic drift and inbreeding in small populations. L. sevosus exhibited an increase in effective population size, and currently has an estimated effective size of 33.0–58.6 individuals, which is approximately half the census size. This large ratio could possibly be explained by genetic compensation. We found that management practices have been effective at maintaining and improving effective size and genetic diversity, but that additional strategies need to be implemented to enhance viability of the species.     

Beyond the point of no return? A comparison of genetic diversity in captive and wild populations of two nearly extinct species of Goodeid fish reveals that one is inbred in the wild

The relative importance of genetic and non-genetic factors in extinction liability has been extensively debated. Here, we examine the levels of genetic variability at 13 (seven informative) loci in wild and captive populations of two endangered species of Mexican Goodeid fish, Ameca splendens and Zoogoneticus tequila. Allelic diversity was higher in the wild populations, and F(IS) lower. Values of theta (=4Nemu) were estimated using a coalescent approach. These implied that the effective population size of all captive populations of A. splendens were smaller than that of the wild population; qualitatively similar results were obtained using an analytical method based on within-population gene identity disequilibrium. However, the wild population of Z. tequila did not show a significantly greater estimate of theta. We used the Beaumont approach to infer population declines, and found that both species showed clear evidence of a decline in effective population size, although this was stronger and probably occurred over a longer period of time in Z. tequila than in A. splendens. The decline in Z. tequila probably occurred before captive populations were established. We discuss implications for the conservation of critically endangered populations.     

Conservation genetics of a peripherally isolated population of the wood turtle (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Glyptemys insculpta</Emphasis>) in Iowa

The North American wood turtle, Glyptemys insculpta, is a semi-aquatic species that is considered rare, threatened, or endangered over much of its range. In this study, a particularly vulnerable peripheral isolate population in Iowa has been monitored over a period of 7 years. Population census size, estimated from mark-recapture data, and age structure determined from morphology are compared with genetic variation assessed using microsatellites. For reference, the genetics and demographics of this peripheral isolate are compared to data from a more dense population nearer the core of the species range in West Virginia. Geneflow between the Iowa population and a nearby population in Minnesota also is assessed. Genetic data indicate that the Iowa population is isolated, unique, and diverse. Although the Iowa population has lower allelic richness, lower heterozygosity, and smaller genetic effective population size than does the West Virginia population, the difference is not dramatic despite its lower population size, position at the periphery of the species range, and biogeographic history. The Iowa population is not inbred, and there is no genetic signature of a recent population bottleneck. However, interpretations of recent population dynamics based on genetic data may be unduly encouraging in long-lived species such as G. insculpta. Field data suggest a nearly complete lack of recruitment in Iowa. A number of environmental and anthropogenic factors, including recent increases in summer flooding during egg incubation, may have a more negative impact on the Iowa population than on the West Virginia population.     

Effective population sizes and temporal stability of genetic structure in Rana pipiens, the northern leopard frog

Although studies of population genetic structure are very common, whether genetic structure is stable over time has been assessed for very few taxa. The question of stability over time is particularly interesting for frogs because it is not clear to what extent frogs exist in dynamic metapopulations with frequent extinction and recolonization, or in stable patches at equilibrium between drift and gene flow. In this study we collected tissue samples from the same five populations of leopard frogs, Rana pipiens, over a 22-30 year time interval (11-15 generations). Genetic structure among the populations was very stable, suggesting that these populations were not undergoing frequent extinction and colonization. We also estimated the effective size of each population from the change in allele frequencies over time. There exist few estimates of effective size for frog populations, but the data available suggest that ranid frogs may have much larger ratios of effective size (Ne) to census size (Nc) than toads (bufonidae). Our results indicate that R. pipiens populations have effective sizes on the order of hundreds to at most a few thousand frogs, and Ne/Nc ratios in the range of 0.1-1.0. These estimates of Ne/Nc are consistent with those estimated for other Rana species. Finally, we compared the results of three temporal methods for estimating Ne. Moment and pseudolikelihood methods that assume a closed population gave the most similar point estimates, although the moment estimates were consistently two to four times larger. Wang and Whitlock's new method that jointly estimates Ne and the rate of immigration into a population (m) gave much smaller estimates of Ne and implausibly large estimates of m. This method requires knowing allele frequencies in the source of immigrants, but was thought to be insensitive to inexact estimates. In our case the method may have failed because we did not know the true source of immigrants for each population. The method may be more sensitive to choice of source frequencies than was previously appreciated, and so should be used with caution if the most likely source of immigrants cannot be identified clearly.     

Evaluating the effect of stage-specific survivorship on the N(e)/N ratio

Evaluating effective population size (Ne) and the effective size to census size ratio (Ne/N) in species with Type III survivorship curves is complicated when key demographic parameters [mean (k macro) and variance (V(k)) of family size] are measured during early life stages. The method of Crow & Morton (1955) for scaling demographic data collected at a juvenile stage to expected values at adulthood is extended to consider sequential episodes of random and family correlated survival. Results show the following: (i) The order in which the episodes of random and family-correlated survival occur does not affect N(e) or N(e)/N; (ii) If a population experiences an episode of family-correlated survival, N(e)/N scaled to its expected value in a population of constant size (k macro= 2) is simply the survival rate during the family-correlated stage. If multiple such stages occur, scaled N(e)/N is the product of the survivals during all family-correlated life stages; (iii) Under the assumption of random post-enumeration survival, adjusting the variance effective size to its expected value at k macro= 2 is equivalent to computing the inbreeding effective size at the earlier life stage. Application to experimental data for hatchery populations of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) indicates that nonrandom survival during the marine phase led to estimated reductions in effective size of 0-62 (mean 19) in 12 different cohorts. This approach can provide insights into N(e)/N in highly fecund species, including some marine species in which N(e) has been estimated to be several orders of magnitude less than N.     

Genetic evidence of recent population contraction in the southernmost population of giant pandas

Anthropogenic habitat loss and fragmentation have been implicated in the endangerment and extinction of many species. Here we assess genetic variation and demographic history in the southernmost population of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) that continues to be threatened by habitat degradation and fragmentation, using noninvasive genetic sampling, mitochondrial control region sequence and 12 microsatellite loci. Compared to other giant panda populations, this population has medium-level genetic diversity based on the measure of both mitochondrial and nuclear markers. Mitochondrial DNA-based demographic analyses revealed that no historical population expansion or contraction has occurred, indicating a relatively stable population size. However, a Bayesian-coalescent method based on the observed allele distribution and allele frequencies of microsatellite clearly did detect, quantify and date a recent decrease in population size. Overall, the results indicate that a population contraction in the order of 95-96% has taken place over the last 910-999 years and is most likely due to anthropogenic habitat loss. These findings highlight the need for a greater focus on habitat protection and restoration for the long-term survival of this giant panda population.     

Effective population size is positively correlated with levels of adaptive divergence among annual sunflowers

The role of adaptation in the divergence of lineages has long been a central question in evolutionary biology, and as multilocus sequence data sets have become available for a wide range of taxa, empirical estimates of levels of adaptive molecular evolution are increasingly common. Estimates vary widely among taxa, with high levels of adaptive evolution in Drosophila, bacteria, and viruses but very little evidence of widespread adaptive evolution in hominids. Although estimates in plants are more limited, some recent work has suggested that rates of adaptive evolution in a range of plant taxa are surprisingly low and that there is little association between adaptive evolution and effective population size in contrast to patterns seen in other taxa. Here, we analyze data from 35 loci for six sunflower species that vary dramatically in effective population size. We find that rates of adaptive evolution are positively correlated with effective population size in these species, with a significant fraction of amino acid substitutions driven by positive selection in the species with the largest effective population sizes but little or no evidence of adaptive evolution in species with smaller effective population sizes. Although other factors likely contribute as well, in sunflowers effective population size appears to be an important determinant of rates of adaptive evolution.     

THE EVOLUTION OF FEMALE-BIASED SEXUAL SIZE DIMORPHISM: A POPULATION-LEVEL COMPARATIVE STUDY IN HORNED LIZARDS (PHRYNOSOMA)

Female-biased sexual size dimorphism is uncommon among vertebrates and traditionally has been attributed to asymmetric selective pressures favoring large fecund females (the fecundity-advantage hypothesis) and/or small mobile males (the small-male advantage hypothesis). I use a phylogenetically based comparative method to address these hypotheses for the evolution and maintenance of sexual size dimorphism among populations of three closely related lizard species (Phrynosoma douglasi, P. ditmarsi, and P. hernandezi). With independent contrasts I estimate evolutionary correlations among female body size, male body size, and sexual size dimorphism (SSD) to determine whether males have become small, females have become large, or both sexes have diverged concurrently in body size during the evolutionary Xhistory of this group. Population differences in degree of SSD are inversely correlated with average male body size, but are not correlated with average female body size. Thus, variation in SSD among populations has occurred predominantly through changes in male size, suggesting that selective pressures on small males may affect degree of SSD in this group. I explore three possible evolutionary mechanisms by which the mean male body size in a population could evolve: changes in size at maturity, changes in the variance of male body sizes, and changes in skewness of male body size distributions. Comparative analyses indicate that population differentiation in male body size is achieved by changes in male size at maturity, without changes in the variance or skewness of male and female size distributions. This study demonstrates the potential of comparative methods at lower taxonomic levels (among populations and closely related species) for studying microevolutionary processes that underlie population differentiation.     

X chromosome DNA variation in Drosophila virilis.

Comparisons of polymorphism patterns between distantly related species are essential in order to determine their generality. However, most work on the genus Drosophila has been done only with species of the subgenus Sophophora. In the present work, we have sequenced one intron and surrounding coding sequences of 6 X-linked genes (chorion protein s36, elav, fused, runt, suppressor of sable and zeste) from 21 strains of wild-type Drosophila virilis (subgenus Drosophila). From these data, we have estimated the average level of DNA polymorphism, inferred the effective population size and population structure of this species, and compared the results with those obtained for other Drosophila species. There is no reduction in variation at two loci close to the centromeric heterochromatin, in contrast to Drosophila melanogaster.     

Non-invasive sampling and DNA amplification for paternity exclusion,community structure,and phylogeography in wild chimpanzees

Genetic studies of free-ranging primates have been seriously impeded by difficulties of sampling tissues, including the undesirability of bleeding habituated animals, of transporting frozen samples to the laboratory, and of the inherent inadequacies of accessible variation including allozymes, mtDNA RFLP patterns and DNA fingerprints. We have developed methods of non-invasive DNA sampling and DNA-level genotyping which, when combined with a hierarchical analysis of mtDNA sequences and hypervariable nDNA simple sequence repeat (microsatellite) loci size length polymorphisms, facilitate the resolution of most questions at the individual, social group (community), population, and species (phylogenetic) levels. This approach, based on DNA amplified from shed hair, represents an important new tool for the acquisition of genetic information and will facilitate the study and management of both captive and free-ranging chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes). Our hierarchical analysis of population genetics of chimpanzees has revealed high historical levels of gene flow and large effective population sizes, as well as substantial divergence between the West African subspecies and chimpanzees from central and East Africa. At the community level, closer relatedness among philopatric males than among females supports the view that kin selection has been an evolutionary force shaping male-male cooperation in this species. Results from our study of the now relatively isolated Gombe community suggest that habitat fragmentation affects population genetic structure and possibly population viability.     

Functional habitat area as a reliable proxy for population size: case study using two butterfly species of conservation concern

Accurate estimates of population size are essential for effective conservation and restoration management of threatened species. Nevertheless, reliable methods to estimate population size, such as mark-release-recapture studies (MRR), are time and labour consuming and may generate negative impact(s) on both the habitats and organisms studied. This may complicate their use if several sites need to be studied concurrently. Consequently, there is a strong interest to develop reliable proxies of population size, e.g., to be used in Population Viability Analysis. Habitat area has often been used as an obvious proxy. For butterflies, many studies focused on the area of host plant patches, but resource-based definition of the habitat (i.e., the area containing the different ecological resources and conditions needed by the individuals) has recently gained much attention. Using two peat bog butterflies, we tested the reliability of these two measures of habitat area as proxies for population size by (1) predicting population sizes based on the product of larval habitat area by the number of emerged butterflies per spatial unit of habitat (eliminated by ground cover traps) and (2) comparing these predictions to accurate population size estimates inferred from MRR studies. Results on both species showed that: (1) adult population size was strongly related to larval habitat availability and quality when habitat was accurately defined according to functional resources, (2) resources other than the host plant have to be included in the habitat definition, (3) after careful control of its similarity, the resource-based habitat delineation can be reasonably well transferred among populations of the same species in a wider region.     

Inbreeding levels and prey abundance interact to determine fecundity in natural populations of two species of wolf spider

Long-term effective population size is expected, and has been shown, to correlate positively with various measures of population fitness. Here we examine the interacting effects of population size (as a surrogate for genetic factors) and prey consumption rates (as a surrogate for environmental quality) on fecundity in two sympatric species of wolf spider, Rabidosa punctulata and Rabidosa rabida. Population size was estimated in each of seven genetically isolated populations in each of 3 years using mark-recapture methods. Fecundity was estimated as the mean number of live offspring produced by ∼15 females sampled from each population of each species each year for 3 years. Prey consumption rates were estimated by sampling ∼300 spiders per population per year and assaying the proportion of spiders with prey. Larger populations have higher fecundity and more genetic diversity than smaller populations. Variation among populations in fecundity for a given year could be attributed most strongly to differences in population size, with variation in prey consumption rates and the interaction between population size and prey consumption playing smaller but still important roles. During the most stressful environmental conditions, the smallest populations of both species experienced disproportionately low-fecundity rates, more than doubling the estimated number of lethal equivalents during those years. The evidence presented in this paper for inbreeding-environment interactions at the population level and further evidence for a log-linear relationship between population size and fitness have important implications for conservation.     

Microsatellite analysis of a population crash and bottleneck in the Mauna Kea silversword, Argyroxiphium sandwicense ssp. sandwicense (Asteraceae), and its implications for reintroduction

The Mauna Kea silversword, Argyroxiphium sandwicense ssp. sandwicense, has experienced both a severe population crash associated with an increase in alien ungulate populations on Mauna Kea, and a population bottleneck associated with reintroduction. In this paper, we address the genetic consequences of both demographic events using eight microsatellite loci. The population crash was not accompanied by a significant reduction in number of alleles or heterozygosity. However, the population bottleneck was accompanied by significant reductions in observed number of alleles, effective number of alleles, and expected heterozygosity, though not in observed heterozygosity. The effective size of the population bottleneck was calculated using both observed heterozygosities and allele frequency variances. Both methods corroborated the historical census size of the population bottleneck of at most three individuals. The results suggest that: (i) small populations, even those that result from severe reductions in historical population size and extent, are not necessarily genetically depauperate; and (ii) species reintroduction plans need to be conceived and implemented carefully, with due consideration to the genetic impact of sampling for reintroduction.     

Next-generation phylogeography: a targeted approach for multilocus sequencing of non-model organisms

The field of phylogeography has long since realized the need and utility of incorporating nuclear DNA (nDNA) sequences into analyses. However, the use of nDNA sequence data, at the population level, has been hindered by technical laboratory difficulty, sequencing costs, and problematic analytical methods dealing with genotypic sequence data, especially in non-model organisms. Here, we present a method utilizing the 454 GS-FLX Titanium pyrosequencing platform with the capacity to simultaneously sequence two species of sea star (Meridiastra calcar and Parvulastra exigua) at five different nDNA loci across 16 different populations of 20 individuals each per species. We compare results from 3 populations with traditional Sanger sequencing based methods, and demonstrate that this next-generation sequencing platform is more time and cost effective and more sensitive to rare variants than Sanger based sequencing. A crucial advantage is that the high coverage of clonally amplified sequences simplifies haplotype determination, even in highly polymorphic species. This targeted next-generation approach can greatly increase the use of nDNA sequence loci in phylogeographic and population genetic studies by mitigating many of the time, cost, and analytical issues associated with highly polymorphic, diploid sequence markers.     

Using sample aerial surveys to estimate the abundance of the endangered Grevy’s zebra in northern Kenya

The effective management of endangered mammals requires reliable estimates of population size. This is challenging for species such as Grevy’s zebra (Equus grevyi) that are distributed over large areas at low densities. Less than 2500 Grevy’s zebra remain in the wild, scattered across 85,000 km² of savannah in northern Kenya and Ethiopia. An efficient, accurate and repeatable survey method is required to guide conservation planning for the species. Currently, total aerial counts are used to census endangered species within Kenya, but are costly in terms of resources. In this study, we evaluated the suitability of sample survey methods for Grevy’s zebra. We estimated population size using sample aerial counts for a known population of Grevy’s zebra in Lewa Wildlife Conservancy (LWC), providing the opportunity to test the accuracy of sample methods, while comparing resource costs with total count methods. We sampled one‐third of LWC using parallel 500‐ m strip transects at 1500‐ m intervals. The population estimate was comparable to the known population size and was less than half as expensive as the equivalent total count survey. Our results suggest sample aerial surveys provide an accurate and cost‐effective means of monitoring Grevy’s zebra and other endangered species in open habitats.     

A metapopulation perspective on genetic diversity and differentiation in partially self-fertilizing plants

Abstract.— Partial self-fertilization is common in higher plants. Mating system variation is known to have important consequences for how genetic variation is distributed within and among populations. Selfing is known to reduce effective population size, and inbreeding species are therefore expected to have lower levels of genetic variation than comparable out crossing taxa. However, several recent empirical studies have shown that reductions in genetic diversity within populations of inbreeding species are far greater than the expected reductions based on the reduced effective population size. Two different processes have been argued to cause these patterns, selective sweeps (or hitchhiking) and background selection. Both are expected to be most effective in reducing genetic variation in regions of low recombination rates. Selfing is known to reduce the effective recombination rate, and inbreeding taxa are thus thought to be particularly vulnerable to the effects of hitchhiking or background selection. Here I propose a third explanation for the lower-than-expected levels of genetic diversity within populations of selfing species; recurrent extinctions and recolonizations of local populations, also known as metapopulation dynamics. I show that selfing in a metapopulation setting can result in large reductions in genetic diversity within populations, far greater than expected based the lower effective population size inbreeding species is expected to have. The reason for this depends on an interaction between selfing and pollen migration.     

Sustaining genetic variation in a small population: evidence from the Mauritius kestrel

We obtained measures of genetic diversity in 10 kestrel species at a suite of 12 microsatellite loci. We estimated the relative effective size (Ne) of the species using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach, which jointly estimated the locus specific mutation rates as nuisance parameters. There was surprisingly high genetic diversity found in museum specimens of the Mauritius kestrel. Being an endemic species on a small island, it is known to have a long history of small population size. Conversely, kestrels with a continental distribution had Ne estimates that were only one order of magnitude larger and similar to each other, despite having current population sizes that were between one and three orders of magnitude larger than the Mauritius kestrel. We show how many of the theoretical results describing the effective size of a subdivided population can be captured in terms of three rates which describe the branching pattern of the gene genealogy, and that they are useful in estimating the time to migration-drift and mutation-drift equilibrium. We use this approach to argue that population subdivision has helped retain genetic diversity in the Mauritius kestrel, and that the continental species' genetic diversity has yet to reach equilibrium after the range changes following the last ice age. We draw parallels with Hewitt's observation that genetic variation seems to survive species' range compression and is rather vulnerable to range expansion.     

Methods to estimate effective population size using pedigree data: Examples in dog,sheep, cattle and horse

Background

Effective population sizes of 140 populations (including 60 dog breeds, 40 sheep breeds, 20 cattle breeds and 20 horse breeds) were computed using pedigree information and six different computation methods. Simple demographical information (number of breeding males and females), variance of progeny size, or evolution of identity by descent probabilities based on coancestry or inbreeding were used as well as identity by descent rate between two successive generations or individual identity by descent rate.

Results

Depending on breed and method, effective population sizes ranged from 15 to 133 056, computation method and interaction between computation method and species showing a significant effect on effective population size (P < 0.0001). On average, methods based on number of breeding males and females and variance of progeny size produced larger values (4425 and 356, respectively), than those based on identity by descent probabilities (average values between 93 and 203). Since breeding practices and genetic substructure within dog breeds increased inbreeding, methods taking into account the evolution of inbreeding produced lower effective population sizes than those taking into account evolution of coancestry. The correlation level between the simplest method (number of breeding males and females, requiring no genealogical information) and the most sophisticated one ranged from 0.44 to 0.60 according to species.

Conclusions

When choosing a method to compute effective population size, particular attention should be paid to the species and the specific genetic structure of the population studied.