Physical and Economic Impacts of Sea-Level Rise and Low Probability Flooding Events on Coastal Communities

Conventionally flood mapping typically includes only a static water level (e.g. peak of a storm tide) in coastal flood inundation events. Additional factors become increasingly important when increased water-level thresholds are met during the combination of a storm tide and increased mean sea level. This research incorporates factors such as wave overtopping and river flow in a range of flood inundation scenarios of future sea-level projections for a UK case study of Fleetwood, northwest England. With increasing mean sea level it is shown that wave overtopping and river forcing have an important bearing on the cost of coastal flood events. The method presented converts inundation maps into monetary cost. This research demonstrates that under scenarios of joint extreme surge-wave-river events the cost of flooding can be increased by up to a factor of 8 compared with an increase in extent of up to a factor of 3 relative to “surge alone” event. This is due to different areas being exposed to different flood hazards and areas with common hazard where flood waters combine non-linearly. This shows that relying simply on flood extent and volume can under-predict the actual economic impact felt by a coastal community. Additionally, the scenario inundation depths have been presented as “brick course” maps, which represent a new way of interpreting flood maps. This is primarily aimed at stakeholders to increase levels of engagement within the coastal community.     

Harbour Porpoises Phocoena phocoena in the Eastern Scheldt: A Resident Stock or Trapped by a Storm Surge Barrier?

Coastal protection measures are planned and executed worldwide to combat the effects of global warming and climate change, in particular the acceleration of sea level rise, higher storm surge flooding and extensive coastal inundation. The extent to which these defensive measures may impact coastal and estuarine ecosystems is still poorly understood. Since the building of a storm surge barrier, movement of harbour porpoises Phocoena phocoena in and out of the Eastern Scheldt tidal bay (SW-Netherlands) may be limited. To measure residency, porpoises stranded along the Dutch North Sea coast between 2006 and 2008 were sampled for muscle (n = 102) and bone tissue (n = 118), of which 9 muscle (8.8%) and 12 bone samples (10.2%) were collected from animals stranded within the Eastern Scheldt. Stable carbon (δ¹³C) was analysed to get insight into the habitat use and residency of porpoises in the Eastern Scheldt. Our data showed significantly higher δ¹³C values in the muscle of porpoises stranded within the Eastern Scheldt (µ = −17.7‰, SD = 0.4‰) compared to animals stranded along the Dutch coast (µ = −18.3‰, SD = 0.5‰). This suggests that most porpoises stranded in the Eastern Scheldt foraged there for a longer period. The distinct δ¹³C signature of animals from the Eastern Scheldt was not observed in bone tissue, suggesting a relatively recent shift in habitat use rather than life-long residency of porpoises within the Eastern Scheldt. The high number of strandings within the Eastern Scheldt suggests a higher mortality rate compared to the Dutch coastal zone. Our study indicates that along with other changes in the physical environment, the storm surge barrier may play an important role in determining the residency of porpoises in the Eastern Scheldt, and that the area might act as an ecological trap for porpoises entering it.     

Retinitis Pigmentosa Reduces the Risk of Proliferative Diabetic Retinopathy: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study

Purpose

To study the association between retinitis pigmentosa (RP) and the progression of diabetic retinopathy (DR).

Methods

Using the Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2000 of Taiwan, we identified individuals with an initial diagnosis for RP during the period of 1997–2008. A non-RP comparison group, 10-fold frequency matched by sex, age, index year and the year of diabetes diagnosed, were randomly selected from the same database. The occurrence of DR was observed for all subjects until the end of 2009. The Kaplan-Meier curves were used to illustrate the cumulative probability of developing DR for the RP group and comparison groups. The hazard ratio (HR) of DR for the RP group relative to the comparison group was estimated using Cox proportional hazards model after adjusting for potential confounders.

Results

The Kaplan-Meier curves were not statistically significant different between the RP group and the comparison group. However, the RP group had a higher cumulative probability of developing DR during the first six to seven years. The cumulative probability kept increasing and became higher in the comparison group but remained unchanged in the RP group. The HR for the RP patients comparing with the comparison group was 0.96 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.43–2.14). Stratified by severity, RP was associated with a non-statistically significant reduced risk of proliferative DR (PDR) (HR = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.16–3.14). The HR for non-proliferative DR (NPDR) was 1.08 (95% CI = 0.40–2.86).

Conclusion

In this study, RP was not statistically significant associated with the incidence of DR.     

Precipitation Increases the Occurrence of Sporadic Legionnaires’ Disease in Taiwan

Legionnaires’ disease (LD) is an acute form of pneumonia, and changing weather is considered a plausible risk factor. Yet, the relationship between weather and LD has rarely been investigated, especially using long-term daily data. In this study, daily data was used to evaluate the impacts of precipitation, temperature, and relative humidity on LD occurrence in Taiwan from 1995–2011. A time-stratified 2:1 matched-period case-crossover design was used to compare each case with self-controlled data using a conditional logistic regression analysis, and odds ratios (ORs) for LD occurrence was estimated. The city, gender and age were defined as a stratum for each matched set to modify the effects. For lag day- 0 to 15, the precipitation at lag day-11 significantly affected LD occurrence (p<0.05), and a 2.5% (95% CIs = 0.3–4.7%) increased risk of LD occurrence was associated with every 5-mm increase in precipitation. In addition, stratified analyses further showed that positive associations of precipitation with LD incidence were only significant in male and elderly groups and during the warm season ORs = 1.023–1.029). However, such an effect was not completely linear. Only precipitations at 21–40 (OR = 1.643 (95% CIs = 1.074–2.513)) and 61–80 mm (OR = 2.572 (1.106–5.978)) significantly increased the risk of LD occurrence. Moreover, a negative correlation between mean temperature at an 11-day lag and LD occurrence was also found (OR = 0.975 (0.953–0.996)). No significant association between relative humidity and LD occurrence was identified (p>0.05). In conclusion, in warm, humid regions, an increase of daily precipitation is likely to be a critical weather factor triggering LD occurrence where the risk is found particularly significant at an 11-day lag. Additionally, precipitation at 21–40 and 61–80 mm might make LD occurrence more likely.     

A Mixed Method to Evaluate Burden of Malaria Due to Flooding and Waterlogging in Mengcheng County,China: A Case Study

Background

Malaria is a highly climate-sensitive vector-borne infectious disease that still represents a significant public health problem in Huaihe River Basin. However, little comprehensive information about the burden of malaria caused by flooding and waterlogging is available from this region. This study aims to quantitatively assess the impact of flooding and waterlogging on the burden of malaria in a county of Anhui Province, China.

Methods

A mixed method evaluation was conducted. A case-crossover study was firstly performed to evaluate the relationship between daily number of cases of malaria and flooding and waterlogging from May to October 2007 in Mengcheng County, China. Stratified Cox models were used to examine the lagged time and hazard ratios (HRs) of the risk of flooding and waterlogging on malaria. Years lived with disability (YLDs) of malaria attributable to flooding and waterlogging were then estimated based on the WHO framework of calculating potential impact fraction in the Global Burden of Disease study.

Results

A total of 3683 malaria were notified during the study period. The strongest effect was shown with a 25-day lag for flooding and a 7-day lag for waterlogging. Multivariable analysis showed that an increased risk of malaria was significantly associated with flooding alone [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR)  = 1.467, 95% CI = 1.257, 1.713], waterlogging alone (AHR = 1.879, 95% CI = 1.696, 2.121), and flooding and waterlogging together (AHR = 2.926, 95% CI = 2.576, 3.325). YLDs per 1000 of malaria attributable to flooding alone, waterlogging alone and flooding and waterlogging together were 0.009 per day, 0.019 per day and 0.022 per day, respectively.

Conclusion

Flooding and waterlogging can lead to higher burden of malaria in the study area. Public health action should be taken to avoid and control a potential risk of malaria epidemics after these two weather disasters.     

Macular Cone Abnormalities in Retinitis Pigmentosa with Preserved Central Vision Using Adaptive Optics Scanning Laser Ophthalmoscopy

Purpose

To assess macular photoreceptor abnormalities in eyes with retinitis pigmentosa (RP) with preserved central vision using adaptive optics scanning laser ophthalmoscopy (AO-SLO).

Methods

Fourteen eyes of 14 patients with RP (best-corrected visual acuity 20/20 or better) and 12 eyes of 12 volunteers underwent a full ophthalmologic examination, fundus autofluorescence, spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT), and imaging with a prototype AO-SLO system. Cone density and spatial organization of the cone mosaic were assessed using AO-SLO images.

Results

In 3 eyes with RP and preserved central vision, cones formed a mostly regular mosaic pattern with small patchy dark areas, and in 10 eyes, the cone mosaic patterns were less regular, and large dark regions with missing cones were apparent. Only one eye with RP demonstrated a normal, regular cone mosaic pattern. In eyes with RP, cone density was significantly lower at 0.5 mm and 1.0 mm from the center of the fovea compared to normal eyes (P<0.001 and 0.021, respectively). At 0.5 mm and 1.0 mm from the center of the fovea, a decreased number of cones had 6 neighbors in eyes with RP (P = 0.002 for both). Greater decrease in cone density was related to disruption of the photoreceptor inner segment (IS) ellipsoid band on SD-OCT images (P = 0.044); however, dark regions were seen on AO-SLO even in areas of continuous IS ellipsoid on SD-OCT. Decreased cone density correlated thinner outer nuclear layer (P = 0.029) and thinner inner segment and outer segment thickness (P = 0.011) on SD-OCT.

Conclusions

Cone density is decreased and the regularity of the cone mosaic spatial arrangement is disrupted in eyes with RP, even when visual acuity and foveal sensitivity are good. AO-SLO imaging is a sensitive quantitative tool for detecting photoreceptor abnormalities in eyes with RP.     

Invasive grasses,climate change,and exposure to storm‐wave overtopping in coastal dune ecosystems

The world's coastal habitats are critical to human well‐being, but are also highly sensitive to human habitat alterations and climate change. In particular, global climate is increasing sea levels and potentially altering storm intensities, which may result in increased risk of flooding in coastal areas. In the Pacific Northwest (USA), coastal dunes that protect the coast from flooding are largely the product of a grass introduced from Europe over a century ago (Ammophila arenaria). An introduced congener (A. breviligulata) is displacing A. arenaria and reducing dune height. Here we quantify the relative exposure to storm‐wave induced dune overtopping posed by the A. breviligulata invasion in the face of projected multi‐decadal changes in sea level and storm intensity. In our models, altered storm intensity was the largest driver of overtopping extent, however the invasion by A. breviligulata tripled the number of areas vulnerable to overtopping and posed a fourfold larger exposure than sea‐level rise over multi‐decadal time scales. Our work demonstrates the importance of a transdisciplinary approach that draws on insights from ecology, geomorphology, and civil engineering to assess the vulnerability of ecosystem services in light of global change.     

Flooding risk analysis: A case study of Muscat Governorate,Sultanate of Oman

Muscat Governorate in the Sultanate of Oman is located along the sea of Oman and urban development has therefore had to occur in the intervening flat coastal plains and valleys along the coastline. The physical location of Muscat Governorate exposes the city to heavy rain and cyclones as they hit the coastline from the Sea of Oman. This underlying exposure plays a major role in the risk processes that lead to the emphasis of particular climate change risks including storm surge and rain-related flooding as experienced during Gonu Cyclone in 2007 and Phet Cyclone in 2010. For assessing flooding risk analysis, this study combined flooding hazard maps with major land use cover to quantify and validate the risks of flash flooding to urban area and infrastructures. Analysis identified substantial areas within the governorate exposure to high, medium, and low risks from extreme rainfall events that could lead to direct damages to roads, buildings, and other properties. This reinforces the need to protect and strengthen current defenses against these events as well as greater preparedness in disaster response.     

Natural Hazards in a Changing World: A Case for Ecosystem-Based Management

Communities worldwide are increasingly affected by natural hazards such as floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves. However, the causes of these increases remain underexplored, often attributed to climate changes or changes in the patterns of human exposure. This paper aims to quantify the effect of climate change, as well as land cover change, on a suite of natural hazards. Changes to four natural hazards (floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves) were investigated through scenario-based models using land cover and climate change drivers as inputs. Findings showed that human-induced land cover changes are likely to increase natural hazards, in some cases quite substantially. Of the drivers explored, the uncontrolled spread of invasive alien trees was estimated to halve the monthly flows experienced during extremely dry periods, and also to double fire intensities. Changes to plantation forestry management shifted the 1∶100 year flood event to a 1∶80 year return period in the most extreme scenario. Severe 1∶100 year storm-waves were estimated to occur on an annual basis with only modest human-induced coastal hardening, predominantly from removal of coastal foredunes and infrastructure development. This study suggests that through appropriate land use management (e.g. clearing invasive alien trees, re-vegetating clear-felled forests, and restoring coastal foredunes), it would be possible to reduce the impacts of natural hazards to a large degree. It also highlights the value of intact and well-managed landscapes and their role in reducing the probabilities and impacts of extreme climate events.     

Flooding tolerance of Tabebuia cassinoides: Metabolic, morphological and growth responses

Tabebuia cassinoides (Lam.) DC (Bignoniaceae) is a tree species that occurs in swampy areas of the coastal “restinga” in SE Brazil (a coastal sandy plains scrub and forest formation). To elucidate possible adaptive strategies that enable this species to occupy areas subjected to seasonal or perennial waterlogging, metabolic, morphological and growth responses of plants under flooding conditions were studied. The root system of T. cassinoides plants presented elevated amounts of ethanol (10.6 μmol g⁻¹ fresh wt) only in the first 5 d of soil water saturation. The two-fold increase in ethanol production under flooding was corroborated by an increase in ADH activity in the same period. Lactic acid concentrations did not change significantly during four months of flooding treatment. The decrease of alcoholic fermentation under hypoxia was associated with the appearing of new roots. The induction of aerenchyma formation in roots developed under flooding conditions, allowed oxygen transport from the shoot to these organs, thus maintaining an aerobic respiration. We conclude that this characteristic and the capacity to oxidize the rhizosphere are probably responsible for the survival and growth of plants while flooded and for their success in an environment, which restricts the presence of the majority of competing tree species.     

Salvage Radiotherapy after Radical Prostatectomy: Prediction of Biochemical Outcomes

Introduction

A significant proportion of patients undergoing salvage radiotherapy (RT) for biochemical recurrence (BCR) following radical prostatectomy (RP) may again experience BCR after salvage RT. Thus, we evaluated the clinical significances of different parameters on the biochemical outcome of RT in salvage setting.

Methods

We reviewed the records of 212 patients who underwent salvage RT between November 2003 and December 2012 for BCR following primary RP. BCR-free survivals after salvage RT were estimated using the Kaplan–Meier method. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to evaluate the impacts of clinicopathologic parameters on BCR following salvage RT.

Results

The overall median follow-up duration was 63.5 months. The BCR-free survival rate after salvage RT was 58.2% at 5 years. Multivariate analysis showed that a pre-RT prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level of ≤0.5 ng/mL, a pre-RT PSA doubling time (PSADT) of >4.5 months, concomitant androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) with salvage RT, and a positive surgical margin were independent predictors of favorable biochemical outcomes after salvage RT (hazard ratios [HR] = 3.012, 1.132, 2.000, and 1.805, respectively, p = less than 0.001, 0.013, 0.005, and 0.036, respectively). In the early (pre-RT PSA ≤0.5 ng/mL) salvage RT setting, concomitant ADT administration was also shown to be significantly associated with higher risk of BCR-free survival following salvage RT (HR = 2.611, p = 0.038).

Conclusion

Lower pre-RT PSA value, longer PSADT before salvage RT, concomitant ADT administration, and a positive surgical margin were significant predictors of favorable biochemical outcomes following salvage RT performed for BCR after primary RP.     

Maternal Education and Micro-Geographic Disparities in Nutritional Status among School-Aged Children in Rural Northwestern China

Objectives

Prior evidence suggests geographic disparities in the effect of maternal education on child nutritional status between countries, between regions and between urban and rural areas. We postulated its effect would also vary by micro-geographic locations (indicated by mountain areas, plain areas and the edge areas) in a Chinese minority area.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted with a multistage random sample of 1474 school children aged 5-12 years in Guyuan, China. Child nutritional status was measured by height-for-age z scores (HAZ). Linear mixed models were used to examine its association with place of residence and maternal education.

Results

Micro-geographic disparities in child nutritional status and the level of socioeconomic composition were found. Children living in mountain areas had poorer nutritional status, even after adjusting for demographic (plain versus mountain, β = 0.16, P = 0.033; edge versus mountain, β = 0.29, P = 0.002) and socioeconomic factors (plain versus mountain, β = 0.12, P = 0.137; edge versus mountain, β = 0.25, P = 0.009). The disparities significantly widened with increasing years of mothers’ schooling (maternal education*plain versus mountain: β = 0.06, P = 0.007; maternal education*edge versus mountain: β = 0.07, P = 0.005). Moreover, the association between maternal education and child nutrition was negative (β = -0.03, P = 0.056) in mountain areas but positive in plain areas (β = 0.02, P = 0.094) or in the edge areas (β = 0.04, P = 0.055).

Conclusions

Micro-geographic disparities in child nutritional status increase with increasing level of maternal education and the effect of maternal education varies by micro-geographic locations, which exacerbates child health inequity. Educating rural girls alone is not sufficient; improving unfavorable conditions in mountain areas might make such investments more effective in promoting child health. Nutrition programs targeting to the least educated groups in plain and in edge areas would be critical to their cost-effectiveness.     

Iodine Deficiency and Excess Coexist in China and Induce Thyroid Dysfunction and Disease: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background

In spite of the salt iodization, iodine deficiency disorders (IDD) have not been sustainably eliminated in China. There are coastal areas with low iodized salt coverage rates (iodine nutrition is inadequate) and other areas with excessive amounts of iodine in the drinking water.

Objective

This study aimed to clarify the association of iodine deficiencies resulting from a low coverage rate of iodized salt, excess iodine intake from drinking water with thyroid function and disease in adults.

Design

A cross-sectional study was conducted in adults in different iodine nutrition areas in three provinces in China.

Results

The prevalence of thyroid nodules was 15.52%, 8.66% and 22.17% in the iodine excess, sufficient and deficient groups, respectively. The prevalence of subclinical hypothyroidism was 20.09%, 10.41%, and 2.25% in the excess, sufficient and deficient iodine groups, respectively. The prevalence of subclinical hyperthyroidism and overt hyperthyroidism in the iodine deficient group was higher than that in the iodine excess group ( = 9.302, p = 0.002) and iodine sufficient group ( = 7.553, p = 0.006). Thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) was significantly correlated with excess iodine intake (β = 1.764,P = 0.001) and deficient iodine intake (β = −1.219, P = 0.028).

Conclusions

Thyroid nodules are more likely to be present in the iodine excess and deficient areas than in the iodine sufficient areas. Subclinical hyperthyroidism and overt hyperthyroidism are more likely to be prevalent in the iodine deficient areas than in the iodine excess or sufficient areas. Subclinical hypothyroidism is more likely to be prevalent in the high iodine intake areas than in the iodine deficient or sufficient areas. Median TSH may be deemed as an alternative indicator for monitoring the iodine nutrition status of the adult population in iodine excess and deficient areas.     

Pattern of Pseudoexfoliation Deposits on the Lens and Their Clinical Correlation- Clinical Study and Review of Literature

Purpose

To study the clinical correlates of pattern of deposits over the lens in patients with pseudoexfoliation syndrome (PXF) or pseudoexfoliation glaucoma.

Methods

This retrospective observational study screened 346 patients with PXF seen in glaucoma clinic of a tertiary hospital from 2011–2013. Details like pattern of deposits, location on the lens surface and pupillary abnormalities in slit lamp photographs and their correlation with clinical and demographic variables, were analysed.

Results

A total of 84 eyes of 42 patients with bilateral PXF were included for the study. Glaucoma was seen in 30 eyes with baseline IOP of 24+3.8 mm Hg. Comparing the type of deposits, namely classical (n = 39 eyes), radial pigmentary (RP) form (n = 39 eyes) and combined classical and radial pigmentary (CR) forms (n = 6 eyes) of deposits, pupillary ruff atrophy was common in all forms while poor dilatation was rare in the RP type (n = 5 vs n = 25 in classical forms, p<0.001). Mean deviation (MD) was worse in the classical and CR form as compared to RP type with the latter presenting much earlier, 43±3.2 years vs 48±4.1 years in CR and 56±5.7 years in classical form, p<0.001. The baseline IOP in the RP group (18±2.3 mm Hg) was significantly lower than the other two forms (CR 20±3.2 mm Hg, classical 28±2.3 mm Hg), p<0.001, with only 2 eyes on anti-glaucoma drugs at presentation.

Conclusion

Pattern of exfoliation deposits may indicate the stage and severity of the disease process in evolution with the RP representing an earlier/less severe form of pseudoexfoliation syndrome.     

The impacts of climate change on the wintering distribution of an endangered migratory bird

There is now ample evidence of the effects of anthropogenic climate change on the distribution and abundance of species. The black-faced spoonbill (Platalea minor) is an endangered migratory species and endemic to East Asia. Using a maximum entropy approach, we predicted the potential wintering distribution for spoonbills and modeled the effects of future climate change. Elevation, human influence index and precipitation during the coldest quarter contributed most to model development. Five regions, including western Taiwan, scattered locations from eastern coastal to central mainland China, coastal areas surrounding the South China Sea, northeastern coastal areas of Vietnam and sites along the coast of Japan, were found to have a high probability of presence and showed good agreement with historical records. Assuming no limits to the spread of this species, the wintering range is predicted to increase somewhat under a changing climate. However, three currently highly suitable regions (northeastern Vietnam, Taiwan and coastal areas surrounding the South China Sea) may face strong reductions in range by 2080. We also found that the center of the predicted range of spoonbills will undergo a latitudinal shift northwards by as much as 240, 450, and 600 km by 2020, 2050 and 2080, respectively. Our findings suggest that species distribution modeling can inform the current and future management of the black-faced spoonbill throughout Asia. It is clear that a strong international strategy is needed to conserve spoonbill populations under a changing climate.     

Migrant Background and Weight Gain in Early Infancy: Results from the German Study Sample of the IDEFICS Study

Objective

To examine variations in infant weight gain between children of parents with and without migrant background and to investigate how these differences are explained by pre- and perinatal factors.

Methods

We used data on birth weight and weight at six months from well-child check-up books that were collected from a population-based German sample of children in the IDEFICS study (n = 1,287). We calculated unadjusted and adjusted means for weight z-scores at birth and six months later. We applied linear regression for change in weight z-score and we calculated odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for rapid weight gain by logistic regression, adjusted for biological, social and behavioural factors.

Results

Weight z-scores for migrants and Germans differed slightly at birth, but were markedly increased for Turkish and Eastern European infants at age six months. Turkish infants showed the highest change in weight z-score during the first 6 months (ß = 0.35; 95% CI 0.14–0.56) and an increased probability of rapid weight gain compared with German infants. Examination of the joint effect of migrant and socioeconomic status (SES) showed the greatest change in weight z-scores in Turkish infants from middle SES families (ß = 0.77; 95% CI 0.40–1.14) and infants of parents from Eastern European countries with high SES (ß = 0.72; 95% CI 0.13–1.32).

Conclusions

Our results support the hypothesis that migrant background is an independent risk factor for infant weight gain and suggest that the onset of health inequalities in overweight starts in early infancy.     

α-Synuclein and Anti-α-Synuclein Antibodies in Parkinson’s Disease,Atypical Parkinson Syndromes,REM Sleep Behavior Disorder,and Healthy Controls

α-synuclein is thought to play a key role in Parkinson’s disease (PD) because it is the major protein in Lewy bodies, and because its gene mutations, duplication, and triplication are associated with early-onset PD. There are conflicting reports as to whether serum and plasma concentrations of α-synuclein and anti-α-synuclein antibodies differ between PD and control subjects. The objectives of this study were to compare the levels of α-synuclein and its antibodies between individuals with typical PD (n = 14), atypical Parkinson syndromes (n = 11), idiopathic rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder (n = 10), and healthy controls (n = 9), to assess the strength of association between these serum proteins, and to determine group sizes needed for a high probability (80% power) of detecting statistical significance for 25% or 50% differences between typical PD and control subjects for these measurements. Analysis of log-transformed data found no statistically significant differences between groups for either α-synuclein or its antibodies. The concentrations of these proteins were weakly correlated (Spearman rho = 0.16). In subjects with typical PD and atypical Parkinson syndromes, anti-α-synuclein antibody levels above 1.5 µg/ml were detected only in subjects with no more than four years of clinical disease. Power analysis indicated that 236 and 73 samples per group would be required for an 80% probability that 25% and 50% differences, respectively, in mean α-synuclein levels between typical PD and control subjects would be statistically significant; for anti-α-synuclein antibodies, 283 and 87 samples per group would be required. Our findings are consistent with those previous studies which suggested that serum concentrations of α-synuclein and its antibodies are not significantly altered in PD.     

我国极端降水变化趋势及其对城市排水压力的影响

全球气候变化对水循环具有重要影响,其中极端降水的变化,对城市排水系统产生巨大冲击,造成城市内涝、交通瘫痪及生命财产损失等问题。为了揭示我国极端降水变化的趋势和区域特征,及其对城市排水系统的压力程度,使用中国气象数据中心1951—2014年全国917个站点的逐日降水量,计算得到我国极端降水及其变化趋势的空间分布特征。并以我国289个主要地级城市为研究对象,构建了气候变化情景下的城市排水压力评估方法,预测并展望了不同时段和不同代表性浓度路径(RCPs)情景下,未来城市的排水压力情况。结果表明,我国极端降水整体上正随着全球气候变化而增加,全国年最大降水量变化速度的平均值为0.06mm/a,但并不是所有区域都具有一致性,具体表现为南部极端降水增加而北部缓解的规律。我国排水压力大的城市主要分布在南部和东北地区,城市排水基础设施完善的东部和极端降水量比较小的西部地区城市排水压力比较低,华北地区极端降水的随机性大,历史上出现的最大降水显著高于该地区常见大雨,也属于内涝风险比较大的区域。随着气候变化的影响,我国未来城市排水压力整体上升,城市未来短期排水压力相对于现有水平总体上升2.9%,具体75个城市的排水压力有所增加明显。且低应对的RCP8.5情景显著高于高应对的RCP2.6情景,这说明减缓气候变化的工作对降低我国城市内涝风险有比较大的积极意义。我国城市排水压力的变化也具有区域性,华北地区极端降水呈现减少的趋势,南部地区极端降水呈现增加趋势,加重了该地区原本就很高的城市内涝风险,需要政府采取积极措施提出有针对性的方案和考虑了气候变化的前瞻性城市排水规划,以降低城市排水压力,尽量减少城市内涝造成的经济损失。     

Hailstones: A Window into the Microbial and Chemical Inventory of a Storm Cloud

Storm clouds frequently form in the summer period in temperate climate zones. Studies on these inaccessible and short-lived atmospheric habitats have been scarce. We report here on the first comprehensive biogeochemical investigation of a storm cloud using hailstones as a natural stochastic sampling tool. A detailed molecular analysis of the dissolved organic matter in individual hailstones via ultra-high resolution mass spectrometry revealed the molecular formulae of almost 3000 different compounds. Only a small fraction of these compounds were rapidly biodegradable carbohydrates and lipids, suitable for microbial consumption during the lifetime of cloud droplets. However, as the cloud environment was characterized by a low bacterial density (Me = 1973 cells/ml) as well as high concentrations of both dissolved organic carbon (Me = 179 µM) and total dissolved nitrogen (Me = 30 µM), already trace amounts of easily degradable organic compounds suffice to support bacterial growth. The molecular fingerprints revealed a mainly soil origin of dissolved organic matter and a minor contribution of plant-surface compounds. In contrast, both the total and the cultivable bacterial community were skewed by bacterial groups (γ-Proteobacteria, Sphingobacteriales and Methylobacterium) that indicated the dominance of plant-surface bacteria. The enrichment of plant-associated bacterial groups points at a selection process of microbial genera in the course of cloud formation, which could affect the long-distance transport and spatial distribution of bacteria on Earth. Based on our results we hypothesize that plant-associated bacteria were more likely than soil bacteria (i) to survive the airborne state due to adaptations to life in the phyllosphere, which in many respects matches the demands encountered in the atmosphere and (ii) to grow on the suitable fraction of dissolved organic matter in clouds due to their ecological strategy. We conclude that storm clouds are among the most extreme habitats on Earth, where microbial life exists.