Maternal antibodies contribute to sex-based difference in hantavirus transmission dynamics

Individuals often differ in their ability to transmit disease and identifying key individuals for transmission is a major issue in epidemiology. Male hosts are often thought to be more important than females for parasite transmission and persistence. However, the role of infectious females, particularly the transient immunity provided to offspring through maternal antibodies (MatAbs), has been neglected in discussions about sex-biased infection transmission. We examined the effect of host sex upon infection dynamics of zoonotic Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) in semi-natural, experimental populations of bank vole (Myodes glareolus). Populations were founded with either females or males that were infected with PUUV, whereas the other sex was immunized against PUUV infection. The likelihood of the next generation being infected was lower when the infected founders were females, underlying the putative importance of adult males in PUUV transmission and persistence in host populations. However, we show that this effect probably results from transient immunity that infected females provide to their offspring, rather than any sex-biased transmission efficiency per se. Our study proposes a potential contrasting nature of female and male hosts in the transmission dynamics of hantaviruses.     

Impact of myxomatosis in relation to local persistence in wild rabbit populations: the role of waning immunity and the reproductive period

Many diseases are less severe when they are contracted in early life. For highly lethal diseases, such as myxomatosis in rabbits, getting infected early in life can represent the best chance for an individual to survive the disease. For myxomatosis, early infections are attenuated by maternal antibodies. This may lead to the immunisation of the host, preventing the subsequent development of the lethal form of the disease. But early infection of young individuals requires specific demographic and epidemiological contexts, such as a high transmission rate of the pathogen agent. To investigate other factors involved in the impact of such diseases, we have built a stochastic model of a rabbit metapopulation infected by myxomatosis. We show that the impact of the pathogen agent can be reduced by early infections only when the agent has a long local persistence time and/or when the host subpopulations are highly connected. The length of the reproductive period and the duration of acquired immunity are also important factors influencing the persistence of the pathogen and thus, the impact of the disease. Besides confirming the role of classical factors in the persistence of a pathogen agent, such as the size of the subpopulation or the degree of connectivity, our results highlight novel factors that can modulate the impact of diseases whose severity increase with age.     

Severity of chronic Chagas disease is associated with cytokine/antioxidant imbalance in chronically infected individuals

Understanding the pathogenic mechanisms in chronic Chagas disease, a major cause of morbidity and mortality in Latin America, is essential for the design of rational therapeutic strategies. In this paper we show that the development of Chagas disease is a consequence of a long-term and complex relationship between parasite persistence and maladapted homeostatic mechanisms in the host which leads to pathologic changes. We performed a retrospective study on 50 patients with chronic Chagas disease and 50 healthy control individuals. The specific immune response was detected by ELISA and IHA tests using autochthonous antigens, inflammatory process with the cytokine tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha and nitric oxide (NO), and antioxidant protection with glutathione peroxidase and superoxide dismutase (SOD) levels. We developed generalised linear modelling procedures to assess simultaneously which explanatory variables and/or their interactions better explained disease severity in patients. Our results show the existence of a strong relationship between anti-Trypanosoma cruzi levels and chronic Chagas disease (P<0.0001). Taken together, the statistical data indicate both cumulative and complementary effects, where the increase in TNF-alpha (P=0.004) and NO (P=0.005) levels correlated with a reduction in glutathione peroxidase (P=0.0001) and SOD (P=0.01) levels drives the disease pathology in chronically infected patients. Our findings may have important implications for understanding host susceptibility to develop severe chronic infectious disease. In addition we show putative targets for the design of new therapeutic strategies to prevent disease progression, considering both specific treatment against the aetiological agent and modulation of the different immunopathological reactions in chronically infected individuals with chronic Chagas disease.     

Experience versus effort: what explains dynamic heterogeneity with respect to age?

Age‐related patterns of survival and reproduction have been explained by accumulated experience (‘experience hypothesis’), increased effort (‘effort hypothesis’), and intrinsic differences in phenotypes (‘selection hypothesis’). We examined the experience and effort hypotheses using a 40‐year data set in a population of Leach's storm‐petrels Oceanodroma leucorhoa, long‐lived seabirds for which the effect of phenotypic variation has been previously demonstrated. Age was quantified by time since recruitment (‘breeding age’). The best model of adult survival included a positive effect of breeding age (1, 2, 3+ years), sex (male > female), and year. Among‐individuals variation (fixed heterogeneity) accounted for 31.6% of the variance in annual reproductive success. We further examined within‐individual patterns in reproductive success (dynamic heterogeneity) in the subset of individuals with at least five breeding attempts. Three distinct phases characterized reproductive success – early increase, long asymptotic peak, late decline. No effect of early reproductive output on longevity was found, however, early success was positively correlated with lifetime reproductive success. Reproductive success was lower earlier than later in life. Among the few natally philopatric individuals in the population, age of first breeding had no effect on longevity, lifetime reproductive success, or early reproductive success. No support for the effort hypothesis was found in this population. Instead, age‐specific patterns of survival and reproduction in these birds are best explained by the experience hypothesis over and above the effect of intrinsic differences among individuals.     

Inertia: the discrepancy between individual and common good in dispersal and prospecting behaviour

The group selection debate of the 1960s made it clear that evolution does not necessarily increase population performance. Individuals can be selected to have traits that diminish a common good and make population persistence difficult. At the extreme, the discrepancy between levels of selection is predicted to make traits evolve towards values at which a population can no longer persist (evolutionary suicide). Dispersal and prospecting are prime examples of traits that have a strong influence on population persistence under environmental and demographic stochasticity. Theory predicts that an ‘optimal’ dispersal strategy from a population point of view can differ considerably from that produced by individual‐level selection. Because dispersal is frequently risky or otherwise costly, individuals are often predicted to disperse less than would be ideal for population performance (persistence or size). We define this discrepancy as ‘inertia’ and examine current knowledge of its occurrence and effects on population dynamics in nature. We argue that inertia is potentially widespread but that a framework is currently lacking for predicting precisely the extent to which it has a real influence on population persistence. The opposite of inertia, ‘hypermobility’ (more dispersal by individuals than would maximize population performance) remains a possibility: it is known that highest dispersal rates do not lead to best expected population performance, and examples of such high dispersal evolving exist at least in the theoretical literature. We also show, by considering prospecting behaviour, that similar issues arise in species with advanced cognitive and learning abilities. Individual prospecting strategies and the information acquired during dispersal are known to influence the decisions and therefore the fate of individuals and, as a corollary, populations. Again, the willingness of individuals to sample environments might evolve to levels that are not optimal for populations. This conflict can take intriguing forms. For example, better cognitive abilities of individuals may not always lead to better population‐level performance. Simulation studies have found that ‘blind’ dispersal can lead to better connected metapopulations than cognitively more advanced habitat choice rules: the latter can lead to too many individuals sticking to nearby safe habitat. The study of the mismatch between individual and population fitness should not be a mere intellectual exercise. Population managers typically need to take a population‐level view of performance, which may necessitate human intervention if it differs from what is selected for. We conclude that our knowledge of inertia and hypermobility would advance faster if theoretical studies—without much additional effort—quantified the population consequences of the evolving traits and compared this with hypothetical (not selectively favoured) dispersal rules, and if empirical studies were similarly conducted with the differing levels of selection in mind.     

How do toxicants affect epidemiological dynamics?

Populations are formed of their constituent interacting individuals, each with their own respective within‐host biological processes. Infection not only spreads within the host organism but also spreads between individuals. Here we propose and study a multilevel model which links the within‐host statuses of immunity and parasite density to population epidemiology under sublethal and lethal toxicant exposure. We analyse this nested model in order to better understand how toxicants impact the spread of disease within populations. We demonstrate that outbreak of infection within a population is completely determined by the level of toxicant exposure, and that it is maximised by intermediate toxicant dosage. We classify the population epidemiology into five phases of increasing toxicant exposure and calculate the conditions under which disease will spread, showing that there exists a threshold toxicant level under which epidemics will not occur. In general, higher toxicant load results in either extinction of the population or outbreak of infection. The within‐host statuses of the individual host also determine the outcome of the epidemic at the population level. We discuss applications of our model in the context of environmental epidemiology, predicting that increased exposure to toxicants could result in greater risk of epidemics within ecological systems. We predict that reducing sublethal toxicant exposure below our predicted safe threshold could contribute to controlling population level disease and infection.     

Malaria infection increases bird attractiveness to uninfected mosquitoes

The epidemiology of vector‐borne pathogens is largely determined by the host‐choice behaviour of their vectors. Here, we investigate whether a Plasmodium infection renders the host more attractive to host‐seeking mosquitoes. For this purpose, we work on a novel experimental system: the avian malaria parasite Plasmodium relictum, and its natural vector, the mosquito Culex pipiens. We provide uninfected mosquitoes with a choice between an uninfected bird and a bird undergoing either an acute or a chronic Plasmodium infection. Mosquito choice is assessed by microsatellite typing of the ingested blood. We show that chronically infected birds attract significantly more vectors than either uninfected or acutely infected birds. Our results suggest that malaria parasites manipulate the behaviour of uninfected vectors to increase their transmission. We discuss the underlying mechanisms driving this behavioural manipulation, as well as the broader implications of these effects for the epidemiology of malaria.     

Parasite abundance contributes to condition‐dependent dispersal in a wild population of large herbivore

Parasite abundance has been shown to have major consequences for host fitness components such as survival and reproduction. However, although natal dispersal is a key life history trait, whether an individual's decision to disperse or not is influenced by the abundance of parasites it carries remains mostly unknown. Current and opposing hypotheses suggest that infected individuals should either be philopatric to avoid the energetic costs of dispersal (condition dependence) or disperse to escape from heavily parasitised habitats. From intensive monitoring of a roe deer population inhabiting a multi‐use and spatially heterogeneous agricultural landscape, we evaluated the link between an individual's parasite abundance and its propensity to disperse, while accounting for confounding effects of body mass. Dispersal propensity generally decreased with both increasing nematode abundance and with decreasing body mass. Within the dispersing segment of the population, individuals with high nematode abundance left their natal home range later in the season than less parasitised deer. These results clearly show that parasite abundance is an important component of condition‐dependent dispersal in large herbivores. However, unexpectedly, three individuals that were both heavily parasitised and of low body mass dispersed. We suggest that this ‘leave it’ response to high parasite levels in the natal habitat could represent a last ditch attempt to improve reproductive prospects, constituting a form of emergency life history strategy.     

Looking for a needle in a haystack: inference about individual fitness components in a heterogeneous population

Studies of wild vertebrates have provided evidence of substantial differences in lifetime reproduction among individuals and the sequences of life history ‘states’ during life (breeding, nonbreeding, etc.). Such differences may reflect ‘fixed’ differences in fitness components among individuals determined before, or at the onset of reproductive life. Many retrospective life history studies have translated this idea by assuming a ‘latent’ unobserved heterogeneity resulting in a fixed hierarchy among individuals in fitness components. Alternatively, fixed differences among individuals are not necessarily needed to account for observed levels of individual heterogeneity in life histories. Individuals with identical fitness traits may stochastically experience different outcomes for breeding and survival through life that lead to a diversity of ‘state’ sequences with some individuals living longer and being more productive than others, by chance alone. The question is whether individuals differ in their underlying fitness components in ways that cannot be explained by observable ‘states’ such as age, previous breeding success, etc. Here, we compare statistical models that represent these opposing hypotheses, and mixtures of them, using data from kittiwakes. We constructed models that accounted for observed covariates, individual random effects (unobserved heterogeneity), first‐order Markovian transitions between observed states, or combinations of these features. We show that individual sequences of states are better accounted for by models incorporating unobserved heterogeneity than by models including first‐order Markov processes alone, or a combination of both. If we had not considered individual heterogeneity, models including Markovian transitions would have been the best performing ones. We also show that inference about age‐related changes in fitness components is sensitive to incorporation of underlying individual heterogeneity in models. Our approach provides insight into the sources of individual heterogeneity in life histories, and can be applied to other data sets to examine the ubiquity of our results across the tree of life.     

Age‐dependence and individual heterogeneity in reproductive success of greater sage‐grouse

Research on iteroparous species has shown that reproductive success may increase with age until the onset of senescence. However, from the population perspective, increased reproductive success with age could be a consequence of within‐individual variation (e.g. ageing, breeding experience, foraging ability hypotheses), between‐individual variation (e.g. individual heterogeneity, frailty, selection, delayed breeding hypotheses), or a combination thereof. We evaluated within‐ and between‐individual variation in reproductive success of greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; sage‐grouse), a galliforme of conservation concern throughout western North America. We monitored female reproductive activity from 1998–2010 and used generalized linear mixed models incorporating within‐subject centering to evaluate and separate within‐ and between‐individual effects. We detected positive effects of within‐individual variation on nest initiation and success where ageing increased the likelihood of both parameters, which appears to support the breeding experience and/or foraging ability hypotheses. However, nest initiation was also affected by between‐individual variation whereby the likelihood of initiation was higher for individuals with higher mean age (i.e. survived longer), as is predicted by the frailty and selection hypotheses. Our results indicate both within‐ and between‐individual variation affect reproductive output of sage‐grouse, but the effects of each varied by measure of reproductive output. Our results corroborate previous findings that suggest population age parameters (i.e. cross‐sectional) should be interpreted with caution due to potential entanglement of within‐ and between‐individual processes. Moreover, the relative role and strength of within‐ and between‐individual processes appeared to vary by measure of reproductive output in our results, which further emphasizes the need for longitudinal analysis of age effects, even in relatively short‐lived iteroparous animals, to adequately interpret biological processes.     

Infection of the fittest: devil facial tumour disease has greatest effect on individuals with highest reproductive output

Emerging infectious diseases rarely affect all members of a population equally and determining how individuals’ susceptibility to infection is related to other components of their fitness is critical to understanding disease impacts at a population level and for predicting evolutionary trajectories. We introduce a novel state‐space model framework to investigate survival and fecundity of Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii) affected by a transmissible cancer, devil facial tumour disease. We show that those devils that become host to tumours have otherwise greater fitness, with higher survival and fecundity rates prior to disease‐induced death than non‐host individuals that do not become infected, although high tumour loads lead to high mortality. Our finding that individuals with the greatest reproductive value are those most affected by the cancer demonstrates the need to quantify both survival and fecundity in context of disease progression for understanding the impact of disease on wildlife populations.     

Reinfection induced disease in a spatial SIRI model

Spatial models are widely used in epidemiology to investigate persistence and extinction of disease as well as their spatial patterns. One of the most important issues in studying epidemic models is the role of infection on the persistence and extinction of the disease. In this paper, we investigate a spatial susceptible–infected–recovered–infected model using cellular automata. We show that, in the regime where disease disappears in the susceptible–infected–recovered–susceptible model, spiral and target waves will emerge in the two-dimensional space due to the reinfection. The obtained results may point out that reinfection has great influence on the epidemic spreading, which enriches the findings of spatiotemporal dynamics in epidemic models.     

Fatal disease and demographic Allee effect: population persistence and extinction

If a healthy stable host population at the disease-free equilibrium is subject to the Allee effect, can a small number of infected individuals with a fatal disease cause the host population to go extinct? That is, does the Allee effect matter at high densities? To answer this question, we use a susceptible–infected epidemic model to obtain model parameters that lead to host population persistence (with or without infected individuals) and to host extinction. We prove that the presence of an Allee effect in host demographics matters even at large population densities. We show that a small perturbation to the disease-free equilibrium can eventually lead to host population extinction. In addition, we prove that additional deaths due to a fatal infectious disease effectively increase the Allee threshold of the host population demographics.     

Disease hotspots or hot species? Infection dynamics in multi‐host metacommunities controlled by species identity,not source location

Pathogen persistence in host communities is influenced by processes operating at the individual host to landscape‐level scale, but isolating the relative contributions of these processes is challenging. We developed theory to partition the influence of host species, habitat patches and landscape connectivity on pathogen persistence within metacommunities of hosts and pathogens. We used this framework to quantify the contributions of host species composition and habitat patch identity on the persistence of an amphibian pathogen across the landscape. By sampling over 11 000 hosts of six amphibian species, we found that a single host species could maintain the pathogen in 91% of observed metacommunities. Moreover, this dominant maintenance species contributed, on average, twice as much to landscape‐level pathogen persistence compared to the most influential source patch in a metacommunity. Our analysis demonstrates substantial inequality in how species and patches contribute to pathogen persistence, with important implications for targeted disease management.     

Body mass and sex‐biased parasitism in wood mice Apodemus sylvaticus

Male sex‐biased parasitism (SBP) occurs across a range of mammalian taxa and two contrasting sets of hypotheses have been suggested for its establishment. The first invokes body size per se and suggests that larger individuals are either a larger target for parasites, trade off growth at the expense of immunity or cope better with parasitism than smaller individuals. The second suggests a sex‐specific handicap whereby males have reduced immunocompetence compared to females due to the immunodepressive effects of testosterone. The current study investigated whether sex‐biased parasitism is driven by host ‘body size’ or ‘sex’ using a rodent–tick (Apodemus sylvaticus–Ixodes ricinus) system. Moreover, the presence or absence of large mammals at study sites were used to control the presence of immature ticks infesting wood mice, allowing the impacts of parasitism on host body mass and female reproduction to be assessed. As expected, male mice had greater tick loads than females and analyses suggested this sex‐bias was driven by body mass as opposed to sex. It is therefore likely that larger individuals are a larger target for parasites, trade off growth at the expense of immunity or adapt behavioural responses to parasitism based on their body size. Parasite load had no effect on host body mass or female reproductive output suggesting individuals may alter behaviour or life history strategies to compensate for costs incurred through parasitism. Overall, this study lends support to the ‘body size’ hypothesis for the formation of sex‐biased parasitism.     

Fatal disease and demographic Allee effect: population persistence and extinction

If a healthy stable host population at the disease-free equilibrium is subject to the Allee effect, can a small number of infected individuals with a fatal disease cause the host population to go extinct? That is, does the Allee effect matter at high densities? To answer this question, we use a susceptible-infected epidemic model to obtain model parameters that lead to host population persistence (with or without infected individuals) and to host extinction. We prove that the presence of an Allee effect in host demographics matters even at large population densities. We show that a small perturbation to the disease-free equilibrium can eventually lead to host population extinction. In addition, we prove that additional deaths due to a fatal infectious disease effectively increase the Allee threshold of the host population demographics.     

The epidemiological consequences of immune priming

Exposure to low doses of pathogens that do not result in the host becoming infectious may ‘prime’ the immune response and increase protection to subsequent challenge. There is increasing evidence that such immune priming is a widespread and important feature of invertebrate host–pathogen interactions. Immune priming clearly has implications for individual hosts but will also have population-level implications. We present a susceptible–primed–infectious model—in contrast to the classic susceptible–infectious–recovered framework—to investigate the impacts of immune priming on pathogen persistence and population stability. We describe impacts of immune priming on the epidemiology of the disease in both constant and seasonal environments. A key result is that immune priming may act to destabilize population dynamics. In particular, when the proportion of individuals becoming primed rather than infected is high, but this priming does not confer full immunity, the population may be strongly destabilized through the generation of limit cycles. We discuss the implications of our model both in the context of invertebrate immunity and more widely.     

Population dynamics of mosquito-borne disease: persistence in a completely heterogeneous environment

We investigate the persistence of a mosquito-borne disease (malaria) in a system where mosquitoes and hosts are grouped in patches containing any number of individuals. A mosquito from any one of vector patches can bite, and take blood meals, in any one of m host patches. We confirm our earlier result (C. Dye and G. Hasibeder, 1986, Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. 80, 69-77) that nonhomogeneous host selection by mosquitoes leads to basic reproductive rates (which measure the persistence of infection in the system) greater than or equal to those obtained under uniform host selection. We find, in addition, that strong associations between particular groups of mosquitoes and hosts lead to still higher basic reproductive rates. Exacting fieldwork would be required to find out how much higher.     

A significant productive in vivo infection of resting cells with simian immunodeficiency virus in a macaque with AIDS

Identifying the cells that can be infected with HIV in vivo and thus potentially persist as latent reservoirs is of high priority. Here, we report the major infected cells in a chronically simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV)‐infected macaque that developed AIDS and encephalitis. A majority of the infected cells were detected as non‐proliferating resting cells. SIV‐infected non‐proliferating resting cells were found to be playing an important role in viral pathogenesis, persistence, or reservoir formation.     

Dominant network interactions are not correlated with resource availability: a case study using mistletoe host interactions

Network theory in ecology has been central to understanding species co‐occurrence patterns, specialization and community stability. However, network theory has traditionally focused on the ‘higher’ trophic level where exploitation of network ‘partners’ (i.e. individual interactions in response to resource availability) have remained underappreciated. In this study we tested how clumping and host availability influenced mistletoe–host interactions in a semi‐arid woodland, central Australia. We used a hierarchical approach that evaluated individual interactions by modifying the traditional randomization technique to simulate clumping and host exploitation. Using published literature we then compared our results with mistletoes from other genera. We found that mistletoes clump on fewer trees than predicted, even though interaction strength was no different from random expectations, and we found no evidence that common trees were heavily infected as predicted by the host availability hypothesis. The rate of host exploitation (measured as the proportion of trees infected) in semi‐arid Australia is similar to that for mistletoe genera in other parts of the world. We hypothesize that specific host trees act as a focal point for infection that facilitates the spread and overall population size of mistletoes. Overall our results indicate that resources, such as the number of trees in a mistletoe network, are less important than clumping of individual plants. We suggest that exploitation of available resources may play a similar role in other networks that extend beyond antagonistic relationships such as parasite or herbivore interactions.