Climatic effect of atmospheric CO2 doubling on radial tree growth in south eastern France

The climatic effect of a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ on radial growth of trees was studied in ten populations of three species in south eastern France using an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) predicting a 3°C increase of mean temperature and a light rise of precipitation. Results are based on empirical growth climate models, involving an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique. Only two of the studied populations, on the boundaries of their ecological area, are sensitive to the climatic variations. One is the larch ( Larix decidua Mill.) population located at 2300 m on elevation (near the timberline) which shows a radial growth increase. The other is the most southern French Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris L.) population which reacts with a severe growth rate reduction.     

和田地区植被覆盖变化及气候因子驱动分析

基于MODIS NDVI(2000—2016年)数据集,结合气温、降水数据,利用最大值合成法、斜率分析法及相关分析等方法,分析和田地区近17年的植被覆盖时空变化特征及其与气候因子的相关性。结果表明:(1)近17年和田地区植被覆盖的月际变化表现为先增加再减少,年际变化表现为显著上升趋势,增速为0.452/10a;(2)近17年和田地区植被覆盖增加和减少的区域分别占总面积的4.48%和0.21%,绿洲及昆仑山北部部分区域变化剧烈,高海拔区域基本不变;(3)近17年温度和降水小幅增加,增速分别为0.144/10a和0.156/10a;月尺度上,植被覆盖与温度为正相关,植被生长滞后于温度两个月;与降水以负相关为主,滞后效应不明显。(4)NDVI对气候因子响应的空间分布中,NDVI与平均温度以负相关为主,与降水以正相关为主,与降水的相关性较温度的相关性高;昆仑山北部植被对降水变化更敏感,和墨洛绿洲、策勒-于田绿洲和和田地区西南部山区对温度变化更敏感。     

Range position and climate sensitivity: The structure of among‐population demographic responses to climatic variation

Species’ distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species’ climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual temperature) will be most sensitive to local shifts in climate (i.e., warming). We tested this prediction using a dynamic species distribution model linking demographic rates to variation in temperature and precipitation for wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) in North America. Using long‐term monitoring data from 746 populations in 27 study areas, we determined how climatic variation affected population growth rates and how these relationships varied with respect to long‐term climate. Some models supported the predicted pattern, with negative effects of extreme summer temperatures in hotter areas and positive effects on recruitment for summer water availability in drier areas. We also found evidence of interacting temperature and precipitation influencing population size, such as extreme heat having less of a negative effect in wetter areas. Other results were contrary to predictions, such as positive effects of summer water availability in wetter parts of the range and positive responses to winter warming especially in milder areas. In general, we found wood frogs were more sensitive to changes in temperature or temperature interacting with precipitation than to changes in precipitation alone. Our results suggest that sensitivity to changes in climate cannot be predicted simply by knowing locations within the species’ climate envelope. Many climate processes did not affect population growth rates in the predicted direction based on range position. Processes such as species‐interactions, local adaptation, and interactions with the physical landscape likely affect the responses we observed. Our work highlights the need to measure demographic responses to changing climate.     

Human-dominated land uses favour species affiliated with more extreme climates,especially in the tropics

Rapid human population growth has driven conversion of land for uses such as agriculture, transportation and buildings. The removal of natural vegetation changes local climate, with human-dominated land uses often warmer and drier than natural habitats. Yet, it remains an open question whether land-use changes influence the composition of ecological assemblages in a direction consistent with the mechanism of local climatic change. Here, we used a global database of terrestrial vertebrates (mammals, birds, reptiles and amphibians) to test whether human-dominated land uses systematically favour species with distinctive realised climatic niches. We 1) explored the responses of community-average temperature and precipitation niches to different types of land use, 2) quantified the abundances of species with distinctive climatic niches across land uses and 3) tested for differences in emergent patterns in communities from tropical versus temperate latitudes. We found that, in comparison to species from undisturbed natural habitats, the average animal found in human-altered habitats lives in areas with higher maximum and lower minimum temperatures and higher maximum and lower minimum precipitation levels. We further found that tropical assemblages diverged more strongly than temperate assemblages between natural and human-altered habitats, possibly because tropical species are more sensitive to climatic conditions. These results strongly implicate the role of land-use change in favouring species affiliated with more extreme climatic conditions, thus systematically reshaping the composition of terrestrial biological assemblages. Our findings have the potential to inform species' vulnerability assessments and highlight the importance of preserving local climate refugia.     

近30年古尔班通古特沙漠短命植物的时空格局

基于1985—1999年的GIMMS-NDVI数据和2000—2014年的MODIS-NDVI数据提取短命植物的时空格局,结合野外调查数据和1985—2014年气象站点气温和降水数据,从不同时空尺度上分析了古尔班通古特沙漠短命植物的时空变化及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明:(1)古尔班通古特沙漠中短命植物层片整体表现出物种组成简单,优势度高、多样性和覆盖度低等特征,且层片特征主要是由优势物种所主导,在早春至盛夏期间,由于短暂的生活史造成层片整体在物候上有一个明显的起伏差异。(2)沙漠中短命植物覆盖度最高的区域为南部和中东部,北部次之,西部最少。就时间变化趋势而言,受近30年早春温度和冬春降水增加的影响,短命植物覆盖的区域面积呈现出明显的增加趋势。(3)1985—2014年间3、4月温度和冬春两季降水量呈上升趋势,而反映短命植物长势的NDVI值与冬春两季降水量也呈正相关性,但就相关性程度而言,冬季降水量与NDVI呈显著性相关(P0.05,r=0.405),而春季降水由于时滞效应并未表现出显著相关性。     

浙江省植被NDVI动态及其对气候的响应

利用GIMMS和MODIS两种归一化植被指数(NDVI)资料反演了1982—2010年浙江植被覆盖状况,结合同期研究区63个气象站点的气温、降水和湿润指数等气候指标,分析了该地区植被年际变化、月际变化及其对气候要素的响应特征。结果表明:(1)研究期间,浙江气候总体呈暖干化趋势,植被覆盖缓慢下降,主要是由于森林植被遭破坏,农业生产活动受抑制影响所致,其中NDVI显著减少的地区约占全省陆域面积的29.1%,主要发生在6—11月;(2)降水量及干湿程度对浙江植被NDVI年变化起着决定性作用。植被与气候要素年变化相关分析发现,NDVI与湿润指数关系较降水、气温更为密切,两者相关及偏相关系数均通过0.05水平的置信度检验,这表明在年际尺度上,湿度的增加增大了植被的生长势,有利于植被生长;(3)植被与气候要素月变化分析表明冬季的热量供给是影响浙江植被生长的重要因子,而植被变化对夏季降水和干湿程度的最大响应为滞后两个月;(4)农业生产水平的提高使得农作物种植区NDVI有所增加,人类活动对浙江植被覆盖的影响不可忽视。     

不同径级红松径向生长对气候变化的响应

运用树木年轮气候学方法,研究原始阔叶红松林分布区内白石砬子自然保护区(40.9° N)、长白山自然保护区(42.4° N)、凉水自然保护区(47.2° N)和胜山自然保护区(49.4° N)4个纬度样地的2个径级红松径向生长对气候变化的响应,分析不同径级红松对气候因子响应的异同,以及影响不同纬度红松径向生长的关键气候因子,探讨气候变化显著的40多年中红松径向生长的变化动态.结果表明: 2个径级红松对气候因子的响应具有很大的相似性,但是小径级(胸径为10～20 cm)红松对当年生长季的平均最低气温以及上一年的气候因子更敏感,而大径级(胸径>40 cm)红松对当年生长季的平均最高气温和平均相对湿度更敏感.影响4个纬度样地红松径向生长的关键气候因子存在一定差异:在最南端的白石砬子自然保护区是当年生长季的季均气温和季均最高气温;最北端的胜山自然保护区是低温因子,包括所有季节的平均最低气温、冬季的平均最高气温,以及除上一年生长季末期和当年生长季以外所有季节的平均气温;中间纬度的长白山自然保护区是当年生长季和生长季末期的帕尔默干旱指数(PDSI)和当年生长季的降水量;凉水自然保护区是当年生长季的平均气温.在气温不断上升的40多年,最南端的2个径级红松径向生长均显著下降,最北端均显著上升,中间2个纬度样地变化均不显著.     

Possible effects of global environmental changes on Antarctic benthos: a synthesis across five major taxa

Because of the unique conditions that exist around the Antarctic continent, Southern Ocean (SO) ecosystems are very susceptible to the growing impact of global climate change and other anthropogenic influences. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand how SO marine life will cope with expected future changes in the environment. Studies of Antarctic organisms have shown that individual species and higher taxa display different degrees of sensitivity to environmental shifts, making it difficult to predict overall community or ecosystem responses. This emphasizes the need for an improved understanding of the Antarctic benthic ecosystem response to global climate change using a multitaxon approach with consideration of different levels of biological organization. Here, we provide a synthesis of the ability of five important Antarctic benthic taxa (Foraminifera, Nematoda, Amphipoda, Isopoda, and Echinoidea) to cope with changes in the environment (temperature, pH, ice cover, ice scouring, food quantity, and quality) that are linked to climatic changes. Responses from individual to the taxon-specific community level to these drivers will vary with taxon but will include local species extinctions, invasions of warmer-water species, shifts in diversity, dominance, and trophic group composition, all with likely consequences for ecosystem functioning. Limitations in our current knowledge and understanding of climate change effects on the different levels are discussed.     

气候变化对大豆影响的研究进展

工业革命以来,全球大气中CO₂等温室气体浓度急剧升高,导致全球气温升高和降水格局发生变化.大气CO₂ 浓度升高、全球变暖、水分状况的变化将对大豆的生长发育、产量、品质等产生影响,未来气候变化下大豆生产将发生很大变化.大豆是世界及我国重要的粮食和油料作物之一,未来气候变化下大豆生产的变化将会影响全球粮油安全.本文从大气CO₂浓度升高、温度升高、水分胁迫三方面综述了气候变化对大豆影响的研究,并对未来的相关研究做了展望,为了解未来大豆的生产情况以及制定应对气候变化对大豆生产影响的相关政策提供依据.     

Perennially ice-covered Lake Hoare,Antarctica: physical environment,biology and sedimentation

Lake Hoare (77° 38 S, 162° 53 E) is a perennially ice-covered lake at the eastern end of Taylor Valley in southern Victoria Land, Antarctica. The environment of this lake is controlled by the relatively thick ice cover (3–5 m) which eliminates wind generated currents, restricts gas exchange and sediment deposition, and reduces light penetration. The ice cover is in turn largely controlled by the extreme seasonality of Antarctica and local climate. Lake Hoare and other dry valley lakes may be sensitive indicators of short term (< 100 yr) climatic and/or anthropogenic changes in the dry valleys since the onset of intensive exploration over 30 years ago. The time constants for turnover of the water column and lake ice are 50 and 10 years, respectively. The turnover time for atmospheric gases in the lake is 30–60 years. Therefore, the lake environment responds to changes on a 10–100 year timescale. Because the ice cover has a controlling influence on the lake (e.g. light penetration, gas content of water, and sediment deposition), it is probable that small changes in ice ablation, sediment loading on the ice cover, or glacial meltwater (or groundwater) inflow will affect ice cover dynamics and will have a major impact on the lake environment and biota.     

川西卧龙国家级自然保护区树木生长对气候响应的时间稳定性评估

根据川西卧龙地区岷江冷杉(Abies faxoniana)的年轮宽度资料, 分析了该地区树木生长特征及对气候响应在最近53年(1956-2008年)的异质性特征。结果表明, 在1956-1976年时段, 树木生长速率较快, 晚冬至早春(1月到4月)温度对树木生长有着明显的促进作用, 而春末5月份的高温对于树木生长有限制性影响, 而与日照时数关系不大; 在1977-2008年时段, 树轮生长主要受冬季(11月到1月)低温的限制, 另外, 日照时数对于树木生长的限制性影响明显增强。秋季到早冬(9-12月)降水在两个时段上对树木生长均有一定的限制性影响。树轮指数在1956-1976年时段与温度序列吻合较好, 而在1977-2008年时段树轮指数明显偏低, 与温度序列出现了明显的分离。1977-2008年时段内云层覆盖量增加导致太阳辐射量显著下降, 进而树木可利用的光合有效辐射也相应地降低, 这可能是树木生长速率在此时期明显较慢的主要原因。     

Summer drought exposure,stand structure,and soil properties jointly control the growth of European beech along a steep precipitation gradient in northern Germany

Increasing exposure to climate warming-related drought and heat threatens forest vitality in many regions on earth, with the trees' vulnerability likely depending on local climatic aridity, recent climate trends, edaphic conditions, and the drought acclimatization and adaptation of populations. Studies exploring tree species' vulnerability to climate change often have a local focus or model the species' entire distribution range, which hampers the separation of climatic and edaphic drivers of drought and heat vulnerability. We compared recent radial growth trends and the sensitivity of growth to drought and heat in central populations of a widespread and naturally dominant tree species in Europe, European beech (Fagus sylvatica), at 30 forest sites across a steep precipitation gradient (500–850 mm year⁻¹) of short length to assess the species' adaptive potential. Size-standardized basal area increment remained more constant during the period of accelerated warming since the early 1980s in populations with >360 mm growing season precipitation (April–September), while growth trends were negative at sites with <360 mm. Climatic drought in June appeared as the most influential climatic factor affecting radial growth, with a stronger effect at drier sites. A decadal decrease in the climatic water balance of the summer was identified as the most important factor leading to growth decline, which is amplified by higher stem densities. Inter-annual growth variability has increased since the early 1980s, and variability is generally higher at drier and sandier sites. Similarly, within-population growth synchrony is higher at sandier sites and has increased with a decrease in the June climatic water balance. Our results caution against predicting the drought vulnerability of trees solely from climate projections, as soil properties emerged as an important modulating factor. We conclude that beech is facing recent growth decline at drier sites in the centre of its distribution range, driven by climate change-related climate aridification.     

黄土高原不同植被覆被类型NDVI对气候变化的响应

植被与气候是目前研究生态与环境的重要内容。为探究黄土高原地区植被与气候因子之间的响应机制,利用线性趋势分析、Pearson相关分析、多元线性回归模型以及通径分析的方法,对黄土高原2000—2015年全区和不同植被覆被类型区内NDVI与气候因子的变化趋势以及相互作用关系进行分析。植被覆被分类数据和植被指数数据分别来源于ESA CCI-LC(The European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative Land Cover)以及MODND1T/NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index)。结果表明:(1) 2000—2015年黄土高原全区植被年NDVI_(max)显著增加的区域占总面积的74.25%,不同植被覆被类型年NDVI_(max)分别为常绿阔叶林常绿针叶林落叶阔叶林落叶针叶林镶嵌草地农田镶嵌林地草地灌木,并且都呈显著增加趋势,其中常绿阔叶林和农田增加幅度最大,为0.012/a。(2)黄土高原全区NDVI与气温、日照、降水和相对湿度等气候因子之间没有显著相关性,但在不同植被覆被类型区,气候因子对NDVI存在显著作用,且不同植被覆被类型差异明显。(3)在全区和不同植被覆被类型区NDVI仅对降水的响应比较一致,气温无论在整个区域尺度还是不同植被覆被类型区对植被的影响均不显著。(4)常绿阔叶林、落叶阔叶林、常绿针叶林及镶嵌林地等以乔木为主的植被覆被类型受年均相对湿度和年总日照时数的显著负效应驱动,草地、镶嵌草地等以草本为主的植被覆被类型则受到年总降水量的显著正效应影响。这说明对植被类型进行区分,更有利于揭示气候对植被的作用机制。     

Climatic Signals in Tree Rings of Heritiera fomes Buch.-Ham. in the Sundarbans,Bangladesh

Mangroves occur along the coastlines throughout the tropics and sub-tropics, supporting a wide variety of resources and services. In order to understand the responses of future climate change on this ecosystem, we need to know how mangrove species have responded to climate changes in the recent past. This study aims at exploring the climatic influences on the radial growth of Heritiera fomes from a local to global scale. A total of 40 stem discs were collected at breast height position from two different zones with contrasting salinity in the Sundarbans, Bangladesh. All specimens showed distinct tree rings and most of the trees (70%) could be visually and statistically crossdated. Successful crossdating enabled the development of two zone-specific chronologies. The mean radial increment was significantly higher at low salinity (eastern) zone compared to higher salinity (western) zone. The two zone-specific chronologies synchronized significantly, allowing for the construction of a regional chronology. The annual and monsoon precipitation mainly influence the tree growth of H. fomes. The growth response to local precipitation is similar in both zones except June and November in the western zone, while the significant influence is lacking. The large-scale climatic drivers such as sea surface temperature (SST) of equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean as well as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) revealed no teleconnection with tree growth. The tree rings of this species are thus an indicator for monsoon precipitation variations in Bangladesh. The wider distribution of this species from the South to South East Asian coast presents an outstanding opportunity for developing a large-scale tree-ring network of mangroves.     

Indication of antagonistic interaction between climate change and erosion on plant species richness and soil properties in semiarid Mediterranean ecosystems

We analyzed the consequences of climate change and the increase in soil erosion, as well as their interaction on plant and soil properties in semiarid Mediterranean shrublands in Eastern Spain. Current models on drivers of biodiversity change predict an additive or synergistic interaction between drivers that will increase the negative effects of each one. We used a climatic gradient that reproduces the predicted climate changes in temperature and precipitation for the next 40 years of the wettest and coldest end of the gradient; we also compared flat areas with 20° steep hillslopes. We found that plant species richness and plant cover are negatively affected by climate change and soil erosion, which in turn negatively affects soil resistance to erosion, nutrient content and water holding capacity. We also found that plant species diversity correlates weakly with plant cover but strongly with soil properties related to fertility, water holding capacity and resistance to erosion. Conversely, these soil properties correlate weaker with plant species cover. The joint effect of climate change and soil erosion on plant species richness and soil characteristics is antagonistic. That is, the absolute magnitude of change is smaller than the sum of both effects. However, there is no interaction between climate change and soil erosion on plant cover and their effects fit the additive model. The differences in the interaction model between plant cover and species richness supports the view that several soil properties are more linked to the effect that particular plant species have on soil processes than to the quantity and quality of the plant cover and biomass they support. Our findings suggest that plant species richness is a better indicator than plant cover of ecosystems services related with soil development and protection to erosion in semiarid Mediterranean climates.     

Integrated approaches to climate-crop modelling: needs and challenges

This paper discusses the need for a more integrated approach to modelling changes in climate and crops, and some of the challenges posed by this. While changes in atmospheric composition are expected to exert an increasing radiative forcing of climate change leading to further warming of global mean temperatures and shifts in precipitation patterns, these are not the only climatic processes which may influence crop production. Changes in the physical characteristics of the land cover may also affect climate; these may arise directly from land use activities and may also result from the large-scale responses of crops to seasonal, interannual and decadal changes in the atmospheric state. Climate models used to drive crop models may, therefore, need to consider changes in the land surface, either as imposed boundary conditions or as feedbacks from an interactive climate-vegetation model. Crops may also respond directly to changes in atmospheric composition, such as the concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (03) and compounds of sulphur and nitrogen, so crop models should consider these processes as well as climate change. Changes in these, and the responses of the crops, may be intimately linked with meteorological processes so crop and climate models should consider synergies between climate and atmospheric chemistry. Some crop responses may occur at scales too small to significantly influence meteorology, so may not need to be included as feedbacks within climate models. However, the volume of data required to drive the appropriate crop models may be very large, especially if short-time-scale variability is important. Implementation of crop models within climate models would minimize the need to transfer large quantities of data between separate modelling systems. It should also be noted that crop responses to climate change may interact with other impacts of climate change, such as hydrological changes. For example, the availability of water for irrigation may be affected by changes in runoff as a direct consequence of climate change, and may also be affected by climate-related changes in demand for water for other uses. It is, therefore, necessary to consider the interactions between the responses of several impacts sectors to climate change. Overall, there is a strong case for a much closer coupling between models of climate, crops and hydrology, but this in itself poses challenges arising from issues of scale and errors in the models. A strategy is proposed whereby the pursuit of a fully coupled climate-chemistry-crop-hydrology model is paralleled by continued use of separate climate and land surface models but with a focus on consistency between the models.     

湖北省地区植被覆盖变化及其对气候因子的响应

归一化植被指数(NDVI)作为一个重要的遥感参数,能够准确地反映植被覆盖程度和植被生长状况、生物物理化学性质及生态系统参数的变化,其时序数据也已成为基于生物气候特征开展大区域植被和土地覆盖分类的基本手段。基于2001—2012年MODIS-NDVI数据,利用趋势分析法以及线性相关分析等方法对湖北省植被年际变化趋势、月变化趋势进行详细分析;并且研究该区植被覆盖时空变化及其与气温和降水的关系。结果表明近12年来,研究区大部分区域植被覆盖度良好,其中鄂西北及鄂南地区NDVI值较高为0.82,鄂中东部城市NDVI值较低为0.13;2001—2012年间年均NDVI整体呈增加趋势,增速1%/10a;植被覆盖度基本不变区域占研究区总面积的92.8%,大致符合我国中部地区植被覆盖变化趋势;分析NDVI与气候因子的相关关系可知,降水量对湖北植被NDVI年变化起有重要影响;逐月NDVI与月平均气温及月降水量的回归分析表明,降水和气温对生长季不同月份的植被NDVI影响明显不同,同时呈现一定的滞后性。     

极小种群野生植物密叶红豆杉(Taxus fuana)径向生长对气候的响应

了解树木生长对气候的响应对过去气候重建和预测其对未来气候变化的响应都至关重要。就珍稀濒危树种而言,这还会有助于对其的有效保护。在中国红豆杉属珍稀濒危植物中,密叶红豆杉（Taxus fuana）分布面积最小,野外生存压力大,属于极小种群植物。本研究运用年轮生态学方法,对西藏吉隆地区开热和吉普两地的密叶红豆杉种群进行树轮盘采样,分析了吉隆地区密叶红豆杉径向生长与温度和降水相关气候因子的相关性,旨在揭示影响密叶红豆杉生长的主要气候因子。结果表明,两个种群径向生长对温度的响应不同。开热种群密叶红豆杉径向生长与各月温度多呈显著正相关;吉普种群密叶红豆杉径向生长与各月温度的相关性较弱,且多为负相关,尤以3月份的最显著。两个种群的径向生长对降水的响应也不同。冬季休眠期（12月）的降水对开热种群密叶红豆杉径向生长呈负相关,而生长季初期（5月）和生长季末期（9月）的降水呈正相关。各月的降水对吉普种群密叶红豆杉的径向生长未表现出显著的影响。研究结果可为探讨气候变化下密叶红豆杉的适宜分布区、以及密叶红豆杉的保护和可持续管理提供参考。     

Stability in a changing world – palm community dynamics in the hyperdiverse western Amazon over 17 years

Are the hyperdiverse local forests of the western Amazon undergoing changes linked to global and local drivers such as climate change, or successional dynamics? We analyzed local climatic records to assess potential climatic changes in Yasuní National Park, Ecuador, and compared two censuses (1995, 2012) of a palm community to assess changes in community structure and composition. Over 17 years, the structure and composition of this palm community remained remarkably stable. Soil humidity was significantly lower and canopy conditions were significantly more open in 2012 compared to 1995, but local climatic records showed that no significant changes in precipitation, temperature or river level have occurred during the last decade. Thus, we found no evidence of recent directional shifts in climate or the palm community in Yasuní. The absence of changes in local climate and plant community dynamics in Yasuní contrasts with recent findings from eastern Amazon, where environmental change is driving significant changes in ecosystem dynamics. Our findings suggest that until now, local forests in the northwest Amazon may have escaped pressure from climate change. The stability of this rich palm community embedded in the hyperdiverse Yasuní National Park underlines its uniqueness as a sanctuary for the protection of Amazonian diversity from global change impacts.     

Separating the effects of climate and vegetation on evapotranspiration along a successional chronosequence in the southeastern US

We combined Eddy‐covariance measurements with a linear perturbation analysis to isolate the relative contribution of physical and biological drivers on evapotranspiration (ET) in three ecosystems representing two end‐members and an intermediate stage of a successional gradient in the southeastern US (SE). The study ecosystems, an abandoned agricultural field [old field (OF)], an early successional planted pine forest (PP), and a late‐successional hardwood forest (HW), exhibited differential sensitivity to the wide range of climatic and hydrologic conditions encountered over the 4‐year measurement period, which included mild and severe droughts and an ice storm. ET and modeled transpiration differed by as much as 190 and 270 mm yr^?1, respectively, between years for a given ecosystem. Soil water supply, rather than atmospheric demand, was the principal external driver of interannual ET differences. ET at OF was sensitive to climatic variability, and results showed that decreased leaf area index (L) under mild and severe drought conditions reduced growing season (GS) ET (ET_GS) by ca. 80 mm compared with a year with normal precipitation. Under wet conditions, higher intrinsic stomatal conductance (g_s) increased ET_GS by 50 mm. ET at PP was generally larger than the other ecosystems and was highly sensitive to climate; a 50 mm decrease in ET_GS due to the loss of L from an ice storm equaled the increase in ET from high precipitation during a wet year. In contrast, ET at HW was relatively insensitive to climatic variability. Results suggest that recent management trends toward increasing the land‐cover area of PP‐type ecosystems in the SE may increase the sensitivity of ET to climatic variability.