Temporal-spatial variation and the influence factors of precipitation in Sichuan Province, China

Precipitation is a key factor in the water cycle.At the same time,precipitation is the focus of study in meteorology and climatology,ecological environmental assessment,non-point source pollution and so on.Understanding the temporal-spatial variation and the corresponding factors of precipitation has become the object of hydrology and environmentology.Based on the annual precipitation data,we analyzed the spatial distribution of precipitation in Sichuan Province in China as well as the temporal-spatial variation and the corresponding influence factors involved.The results show that the amount of precipitation was abundant,but the spatial distribution was not consistent with it and the amount of precipitation gradually declined from the south-east to the north-west in Sichuan Province,China.Moreover,the spatial distribution was different throughout the years.The result of correlation analysis indicated that elevation,temperature and air pressure were three key factors affecting the amount and distribution of precipitation,and the correlation coefficients were -0.56,0.38 and 0.45 respectively.Notably,the relationship between the slope of topography and precipitation were significantly negative and the average correlation coefficient was -0.28.     

基于MODIS-EVI的西南地区植被覆盖时空变化及驱动因素研究

基于MODIS-EVI和气象数据,利用最大值合成法、像元二分模型、趋势分析和相关分析等方法,探讨了西南地区2001-2015年植被覆盖时空变化特征及其对气候因子的响应,并分析了温度和降水对植被覆盖时空变化的驱动作用。结果表明：（1）2001-2015年,西南地区植被EVI以0.1%/a的变化率呈波动增加趋势,但空间异质性显著,呈现出从东南向西北逐渐递减的趋势;（2）西南地区以高和极高植被覆盖度为主,极低植被覆盖度区域约占研究区总面积的8.6%,植被覆盖度增加的区域集中分布在广西省北海-钦州、贵州省邵通-毕节-遵义、四川省广元-广安以及西藏那曲等地区,植被覆盖度呈减少趋势区域主要集中在西藏拉萨-阿里地区和四川成都-阿坝州-甘孜州等地区;（3）植被EVI与同期温度和降水相关性较好,均以正相关为主。在0.05显著水平下,受降水驱动的区域呈斑块状分布在西藏自治区和青海省交界处,以及云南和广西部分地区,约占研究区总面积的3.4%;受温度驱动的区域零星分布在各省、自治区,约占研究区总面积的1.6%;受温度和降水共同驱动的区域约占研究区总面积的7.2%,主要分布在西藏自治区的阿里地区北部,青海省的三江源地区以及四川和贵州两省交界处的小部分地区;西南地区大部分区域的植被EVI指数变化表现为非气候因素驱动。     

西南地区水稻水分亏缺率时空变化特征及其影响因素

基于西南及周边地区1960—2013年气象观测资料,分析了近54年西南地区水稻生长季水分亏缺率时空变化特征,探讨了环流异常、地理环境与水分亏缺率时空变化的关系。结果表明:在空间格局上,由于受气候条件和地理环境影响,东部丘陵区水分亏缺相对较多,云贵高原水分供给相对充足,且水分亏缺区和盈余区分别呈现出“一带两中心”的分布特征;在变化趋势上,近54年西南地区水稻水分亏缺呈现“整体变干、局部变湿”的空间格局,“甘孜—钦州”一线以南地区水分亏缺率呈现增大趋势,“甘孜—钦州”一线以北地区水分亏缺率呈现“增大—减小相间”的分布格局;在影响因素上,NAO、ENSO与西南地区水稻水分亏缺率变化具有相关性。在NAO正相位时,除广西丘陵区沿海地带部分站点水分亏缺率呈下降趋势外,整个地区干旱化程度加剧;在厄尔尼诺年,西南地区水分亏缺率存在地域分异,横断山区、四川盆地和云贵高原水分亏缺率呈上升趋势,东部丘陵区水分亏缺率则呈下降趋势。全球变暖背景下,西南地区水稻水分亏缺率逐年增加,对灌溉蓄水依赖明显,增大了区域农业脆弱性。     

2000-2019年四川省植被恢复成效与影响因素

国家实施天然林资源保护工程与退耕还林等生态建设工程,为构筑长江上游生态屏障、促进长江流域经济可持续发展做出了突出贡献;评估退耕还林等生态工程实施后植被恢复成效及影响因素是促进区域植被恢复优化与生态环境改善的关键一步。基于MODIS MOD13Q1数据,应用Theil Sen斜率与Mann-Kendall趋势检验、“基线”评价方法、时空地理加权回归模型等量化不同时间尺度的植被时空变化、恢复成效和恢复机制。结果表明(1)植被覆盖状况良好,截止2019年底,四川省91%的区域植被出现增长,四川盆地东北部、四川省南部地区以及东南部乌蒙山、川西北高原地区植被覆盖较高;成都市内以及周围市区植被覆盖率较低。(2)植被恢复成效时空差异显著,占全省面积98.68%的区域植被恢复成效明显,高值区面积占比71.47%,集中于除成都平原外的四川省绝大部分区域。(3)气候变化对植被变化的影响以不显著为主,气温、降水对四川省植被恢复影响微弱,海拔和>35°坡度面积比等地理环境因子则以弱抑制作用为主。(4)在相对平稳的气候背景下,人均财政支出、耕地面积与人均GDP所代表的社会经济因素是植被恢复成效改善的重要影...     

The scale-dependent importance of habitat factors and dispersal limitation in structuring Great Lakes shoreline plant communities

Niche-based and neutral models of community structure posit distinct mechanisms underlying patterns in community structure; correlation between species’ distributions and habitat factors points to niche assembly while spatial pattern independent of habitat suggests neutral assembly via dispersal limitation. The challenge is to disentangle the relative contributions when both processes are operating, and to determine the scales at which each is important. We sampled shoreline plant communities on an island in Lake Michigan, varying the extent and the grain of sampling, and used both distance-based correlation methods and variance partitioning to quantify the proportion of the variation in plant species composition that was attributable to habitat factors and to spatial configuration independent of habitat. Our results were highly scale dependent. We found no distance decay of plant community similarity at the island scale (1−33 km). All of the explained variation (32%) in species composition among samples at this scale was attributed to habitat factors. However, at a site intensively sampled at a smaller scale (5−1,200 m), similarity of species composition did decay with distance. Using a coarse sampling grain (transects), habitat factors explained 40% of the variation, but the purely spatial component explained a comparable 22%. Analyzing plots within transects revealed variation in species composition that was still jointly determined by habitat and spatial factors (18 and 11% of the variance, respectively). For both grain sizes, most of the habitat component was spatially structured, reflecting an abrupt alongshore transition from sandy dunes to cobble beach. Space per se explained more variation in species composition at a second site where the habitat transition was more gradual; here, habitat acted as a less selective filter, allowing the signal of dispersal limitation to be detected more readily. We conclude that both adaptation to specific habitat factors and habitat-independent spatial position indicative of dispersal limitation determine plant species composition in this system. Our results support the prediction that dispersal limitation—a potentially, but not necessarily, neutral driver—is relatively more important at smaller scales.     

1983～1992年中国陆地NDVI变化的气候因子驱动分析

利用1983－1992年NOAA／AVHRR逐月的归一化植被指数（NDVI）资料和中国国家气象局全国160个基本标准气象站的月均温和降雨数据,探讨气温,降水对中国植NDVI动态变化驱动作用。首先计算了NDVI与气温,降水偏相关和复相关系数,研究了中国植被NDVI变化的气候因子驱动的区域分异规律,并据此,对中国植被NDVI变化的气候因子驱动进行了分区,共分出4个一级区,6个二级区和14个三级区,进一步表明了中国植被NDVI变化气候因子驱动的区域差异。     

Total inputs of phosphorus and nitrogen by wet deposition into Lake Taihu, China

Lake Taihu suffers from eutrophication caused by riverine nutrient inputs and air deposition. To characterize wet deposition of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) to the lake, precipitation collection and measurements of total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) and other components at five cities around Lake Taihu were made from July 2002 to June 2003. TP and TN concentrations and deposition rates exhibited strong spatial variation in the whole catchment. An inverse correlation between station-averaged TP and TN concentrations and precipitation amount was found. Maximal TP concentration in rainfall was found in Suzhou, and maximal TN in Wuxi. However, highest wet deposition rates of TP and TN were found in Suzhou, which suggests that atmospheric nutrients are mostly from the east and northwest area of Lake Taihu. Mean TP and TN deposition rates were 0.03 and 2.0 t km⁻² year⁻¹ respectively in Lake Taihu, which are greater than reported values in other areas by comparision. Total N and P contributed to the lake by wet deposition were 75 and 4720 t per year, respectively, which represent about 7.3% and 16.5% of total annual N and P inputs via inflow rivers. Wet deposition, especially N, could have significant effects on eutrophication in the lake, which shows that air deposition should be taken into account while reducing the external nutrients in the lake.     

Spatial Distribution of Soil Organic Carbon and Its Influencing Factors in Desert Grasslands of the Hexi Corridor,Northwest China

Knowledge of the distribution patterns of soil organic carbon (SOC) and factors that influence these patterns is crucial for understanding the carbon cycle. The objectives of this study were to determine the spatial distribution pattern of soil organic carbon density (SOCD) and the controlling factors in arid desert grasslands of northwest China. The above- and belowground biomass and SOCD in 260 soil profiles from 52 sites over 2.7×10⁴ km² were investigated. Combined with a satellite-based dataset of an enhanced vegetation index during 2011–2012 and climatic factors at different sites, the relationships between SOCD and biotic and abiotic factors were identified. The results indicated that the mean SOCD was 1.20 (SD:+/− 0.85), 1.73 (SD:+/− 1.20), and 2.69 (SD:+/− 1.91) kg m⁻² at soil depths of 0–30 cm, 0–50 cm, and 0–100 cm, respectively, which was smaller than other estimates in temperate grassland, steppe, and desert-grassland ecosystems. The spatial distribution of SOCD gradually decreased from the southeast to the northwest, corresponding to the precipitation gradient. SOCD increased significantly with vegetation biomass, annual precipitation, soil moisture, clay and silt content, and decreased with mean annual temperature and sand content. The correlation between BGB and SOCD was closer than the correlation between AGB and SOCD. Variables could together explain about 69.8%, 74.4%, and 78.9% of total variation in SOCD at 0–30 cm, 0–50 cm, and 0–100 cm, respectively. In addition, we found that mean annual temperature is more important than other abiotic factors in determining SOCD in arid desert grasslands in our study area. The information obtained in this study provides a basis for accurately estimating SOC stocks and assessing carbon (C) sequestration potential in the desert grasslands of northwest China.     

2000-2020年华北地区植被固碳能力时空变化特征及其气象影响分析

净生态系统生产力(NEP)是估算植被生态系统碳源/汇的重要指标,开展区域NEP时空变化特征分析,对科学评估植被生态系统固碳能力及其气候变化应对措施具有重要意义。研究基于土壤呼吸模型和TEC模型,利用2000—2020年气象数据和遥感数据,采用线性趋势分析、Hurst指数和相关分析等统计方法,对华北地区固碳能力时空变化特征、影响因素及其未来变化趋势进行分析。结果表明：2000—2020年,华北地区年均NEP为228.8 gC/m²,在空间分布上呈现从西北向东南逐步递增的趋势,总体上表现为净固碳。从变化趋势来看,华北地区生态系统的固碳能力总体呈增加趋势,分布面积占比达到88.8%,达到显著增加趋势的面积比例为54.5%(P<0.05),其中河北北部、北京北部、山西西北部、山东西部等地NEP每年每平方米增加9.0 gC以上。华北大部地区NEP年际波动较小,有79.6%的区域多处于较高稳定、高稳定的等级。从变化趋势来看,华北地区有84.9%区域NEP具有强持续性,且NEP未来仍将持续增加的区域面积占比达到51.4%。华北地区NEP的空间分布和年际变化主要受降水的影响...     

Characteristics of soil CO2 efflux variability in an aseasonal tropical rainforest in Borneo Island

Although soil carbon dioxide (CO₂) efflux from tropical forests may play an important role in global carbon (C) balance, our knowledge of the fluctuations and factors controlling soil CO₂ efflux in the Asian tropics is still poor. This study characterizes the temporal and spatial variability in soil CO₂ efflux in relation to temperature/moisture content and estimates annual efflux from the forest floor in an aseasonal intact tropical rainforest in Sarawak, Malaysia. Soil CO₂ efflux varied widely in space; the range of variation averaged 17.4 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹ in total. While most CO₂ flux rates were under 10 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹, exceptionally high fluxes were observed sporadically at several sampling points. Semivariogram analysis revealed little spatial dependence in soil CO₂ efflux. Temperature explained nearly half of the spatial heterogeneity, but the effect varied with time. Seasonal variation in CO₂ efflux had no fixed pattern, but was significantly correlated with soil moisture content. The correlation coefficient with soil moisture content (SMC) at 30 and 60 cm depth was higher than at 10 cm depths. The annual soil CO₂ efflux, estimated from the relationship between CO₂ efflux and SMC at 30 cm depth, was 165 mol m⁻² year⁻¹ (1,986 g C m⁻² year⁻¹). As this area is known to suffer severe drought every 4–5 years caused by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, the results suggest that an unpredictable dry period might affect soil CO₂ efflux, leading an annual variation in soil C balance.     

青海省植被净初级生产力(NPP)时空格局变化及其驱动因素

植被净初级生产力(NPP)作为陆地生态过程的关键参数,不仅用以估算地球支持能力和评价陆地生态系统的可持续发展,也是全球碳循环的重要组成部分和关键环节。基于2000—2014年MOD17A3年均NPP数据和气象站点气温、降水资料,采用简单差值、趋势分析、相关性分析和Hurst指数等方法,分析了青海省NPP的时空变化特征及其与气候因子的关系。结果表明:①青海省植被年均NPP在2000—2014年间整体分布呈现由南到北、由东到西递减的趋势,各生态区的空间存在显著差异,表现为Ⅱ区Ⅰ区Ⅲ区Ⅳ区Ⅴ区。②2000—2014年,青海省NPP变化趋势由北到南、由西到东呈现逐渐增加趋势,平均趋势系数为0.61,NPP值增加的区域占总面积的15%,其中显著增加区域为2.8%,轻度增加区域为12.2%。③青海省NPP值的Hurst的值域范围为0—0.39,均值为0.12,除了河流湖泊,建筑用地和未利用土地,青海省NPP变化特征为反持续性特征。④气候因子(年平均降水量和年均气温)对年均NPP的分布有影响,海拔的高低造成气温、降水和土壤的差异,间接影响植被NPP,15年土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)表现为草地面积减少最多,这是导致NPP减少的主要原因。     

Methane flux dynamics in an Irish lowland blanket bog

Pristine peatlands are a significant source of atmospheric methane (CH₄). Large spatio–temporal variation has been observed in flux rates within and between peatlands. Variation is commonly associated with water level, vegetation structure, soil chemistry and climatic variability. We measured spatial and temporal variation in CH₄ fluxes in a blanket bog during the period 2003–2005. The surface of the bog was composed of different vegetation communities (hummocks, lawns and hollows) along a water level gradient. CH₄ fluxes were measured in each community using a chamber method. Regression modelling was used to relate the fluxes with environmental variables and to integrate fluxes over the study period. Water level was the strongest controller of spatial variation; the average flux rate was lowest in hummocks and highest in hollows, ranging from 3 to 53 mg CH₄ m⁻² day⁻¹. In vegetation communities with a permanently high water level, the amount and species composition of vegetation was also a good indicator of flux rate. We observed a clear seasonal variation in flux that was chiefly controlled by temperature. The annual average flux (6.2 g CH₄ m⁻² year⁻¹) was similar to previous estimates from blanket bogs and continental raised bogs. No interannual variation was observed.     

基于信息熵的新疆降水时空变异特征研究

基于信息熵理论对新疆降水序列的时空变异性进行研究。利用边际熵研究不同时间尺度降水序列的变化特征。利用分配熵和强度熵分别研究降水量和降水天数年内和年代际(10a)分配情况。利用改进的Mann-Kendall趋势检验法分析新疆降水过程不确定性变化趋势。研究表明:(1)新疆降水量与降水天数年内分配不均匀性主要表现为由南向北减小的空间分布特征;(2)新疆不同尺度的降水序列不确定性具有明显空间特征;(3)越降水越稀少的地区,降水量与降水天数变异性就越大。本研究对该区域降水时空变异研究与水资源规划具有重要意义。     

四川省生态系统土壤保持功能空间特征及其影响因素

土壤保持是生态系统通过其结构与过程减少由于降水所导致的土壤侵蚀的作用,是生态系统重要调节服务之一。四川省位于长江上游,是我国重要的生态安全屏障区域,对其生态系统土壤保持功能的保护和土壤侵蚀的控制是维持长江中下游生态安全的重要保障。研究采用通用土壤流失方程(USLE)和统计学方法,对四川省生态系统土壤保持功能的空间特征以及影响因素展开分析,结果表明:(1) 2015年,四川省生态系统土壤保持总量为199.01亿t,平均土壤保持强度约409.43 t hm-2a-1,森林和灌丛生态系统是土壤保持功能的主体,农田生态系统仍发挥了相当数量的土壤保持作用,但农业活动中需注意采取水土保持措施;(2)空间上,土壤保持功能较强的区域主要位于地形起伏明显的盆周山地区(包括龙门山、邛崃山、大凉山和米仓山等),以巴中市、雅安市、达州市、广元市、攀枝花市、乐山市等地的平均土壤保持强度较高,以凉山州、阿坝州、甘孜州、雅安市、巴中市、达州市等地的土壤保持极重要区分布较广;(3)自然因素中,气候和地形是影响研究区生态系统土壤保持空间格局的主要因素,土壤因素在区域尺度上也表现出一定的影响,植被因素则可能在局域尺度上发挥作用。研究从土壤保持功能角度揭示了保障生态安全的重要区域,研究结果可为四川省的生态保护和侵蚀控制提供科学指导。     

滇黄精的潜在分布与气候适宜性分析

为了解滇黄精(Polygonatum kingianum)的适宜生长区,运用Maxent模型模拟其潜在分布区,探讨其引种栽培的适宜气候条件。结果表明,预测模型的AUC值为0.974~0.980,表明模型具有良好的预测能力。滇黄精主要适生区位于我国西南地区,适生面积约81.34×10~4 km~2,占全国适生区面积的88.24%。云南的高度适生区面积最大(19.96×10~4 km~2);四川次之(5.49×10~4 km~2)。75%的高度适生区分布于海拔2 492 m以下的地区,3 400 m以上的地区不适宜于滇黄精生长。最冷月最低温度、7月最低温度、5-8月太阳辐射、最干月降水量、4月和9-11月平均降水量是限制滇黄精分布的主要气候变量。因此,海拔1 400~2 100 m的亚热带地区是滇黄精最适宜的生长区。     

基于局域统计量的黑龙江省多尺度森林碳储量空间分布变化

基于黑龙江省一类样地和生态公益林监测样地(共4163块)数据,应用局域Moran I及局域统计量(局域均值及局域标准差)检验4个尺度(25、50、100和150 km)下黑龙江省森林碳储量的空间分布模式、空间变异和空间相关性,并研究了2005和2010年森林碳储量的变化.结果表明: 黑龙江省森林碳储量空间分布存在显著空间正相关,森林碳储量均为相似的变化,而且都不是空间随机发生的;研究区森林碳储量受周围环境因子影响,空间分布存在异质性,且变异较大.2005—2010年,年均森林碳储量空间分布变化存在较大差异,呈增长趋势.局域统计量是描述森林碳储量随着空间和时间变化的有效方法,可以通过ArcGIS使结果可视化.     

Natural 15N abundance in two nitrogen saturated forest ecosystems

Natural ¹⁵N abundance values were measured in needles, twigs, wood, soil, bulk precipitation, throughfall and soil water in a Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) and a Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stand receiving high loads of nitrogen in throughfall (>50 kg N ha⁻¹ year⁻¹). In the Douglas fir stand δ¹⁵N values of the vegetation ranged between −5.7 and −4.2‰ with little variation between different compartments. The vegetation of the Scots pine stand was less depleted in ¹⁵N and varied from −3.3 to −1.2‰δ¹⁵N. At both sites δ¹⁵N values increased with soil depth, from −5.7‰ and −1.2‰ in the organic layer to +4.1‰ and +4.7‰ at 70 cm soil depth in the Douglas fir and Scots pine stand, respectively. The δ¹⁵N values of inorganic nitrogen in bulk precipitation showed a seasonal variation with a mean in NH₄ ⁺-N of −0.6‰ at the Douglas fir stand and +10.8‰ at the Scots pine stand. In soil water below the organic layer NH₄ ⁺-N was enriched and NO₃ ⁻-N depleted in ¹⁵N, which was interpreted as being caused by isotope fractionation accompanying high nitrification rates in the organic layers. Mean δ¹⁵N values of NH₄ ⁺ and NO₃ ⁻ were very similar in the drainage water at 90 cm soil depth at both sites (−7.1 to −3.8‰). A dynamic N cycling model was used to test the sensitivity of the natural abundance values for the amount of N deposition, the ¹⁵N ratio of atmospheric N deposited and for the intrinsic isotope discrimination factors associated with N transformation processes. Simulated δ¹⁵N values for the N saturated ecosystems appeared particularly sensitive to the ¹⁵N ratio of atmospheric N inputs and discrimination factors during nitrification and mineralization. The N-saturated coniferous forest ecosystems studied were not characterized by elevated natural ¹⁵N abundance values. The results indicated that the natural ¹⁵N abundance values can only be used as indicators for the stage of nitrogen saturation of an ecosystem if the δ¹⁵N values of the deposited N and isotope fractionation factors are taken into consideration. Combining dynamic isotope models and natural ¹⁵N abundance values seems a promising technique for interpreting natural ¹⁵N abundance values found in these forest ecosystems. Received: 5 May 1996 / Accepted: 10 April 1997     

Variability of Mn hyperaccumulation in the Australian rainforest tree Gossia bidwillii (Myrtaceae)

This study examines the heterogeneity of the Mn-hyperaccumulative trait in natural stands of the Australian rainforest tree species Gossia bidwillii (Myrtaceae). It is the only known Mn hyperaccumulator from Australia, and has an unusual spatial distribution of Mn in its leaves. G. bidwillii occurs naturally on a range of Mn-containing substrates including ultramafic soils. Leaf samples were collected from individual trees and four small stands, over a longitudinal range of ∼600 km. While no variation in the spatial distribution of foliar Mn was detected, considerable variation in Mn concentration was found. G. bidwillii was shown to accumulate Mn when growing on a variety of substrates, and dry weight (DW) foliar Mn concentrations of all trees sampled ranged between 2,740 and 27,470 μg g⁻¹. The majority of samples exceeded 10,000 μg g⁻¹, the threshold value for Mn hyperaccumulation. The overall frequency distribution of foliar Mn concentration was found to be bimodal, with a small outlier of extreme hyperaccumulators. Highest values were obtained from trees growing on a basaltic krasnozem clay, not ultramafic soil. Soil Mn concentrations were measured, and no relationship was found between foliar Mn concentrations and extractable Mn concentrations in host substrates. Some of the variation in the Mn-hyperaccumulative trait in G. bidwillii throughout its large natural distribution may reflect the unresolved taxonomy of this most widespread species in the genus Gossia. Ability to hyperaccumulate Mn may serve as an additional diagnostic tool for resolving this taxonomy.     

Interannual NPP variation and trend of Picea schrenkiana forests under changing climate conditions in the Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang, China

The interannual net primary production variation and trends of a Picea schrenkiana forest were investigated in the context of historical changes in climate and increased atmospheric CO₂ concentration at four sites in the Tianshan Mountain range, China. Historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO₂ concentration were used as Biome–BGC model drivers to evaluate the spatial patterns and temporal trends of net primary production (NPP). The temporal dynamics of NPP of P. schrenkiana forests were different in the western, middle and eastern sites of Tianshan, which showed substantial interannual variation. Climate changes would result in increased NPP at all study sites, but only the change in NPP in the western forest (3.186 gC m⁻² year⁻¹, P < 0.05) was statistically significant. Our study also showed a higher increase in the air temperature, precipitation and NPP during 1987–2000 than 1961–1986. Statistical analysis indicates that changes in NPP are positively correlated with annual precipitation (R = 0.77–0.92) but that NPP was less sensitive to changes in air temperature. According to the simulation, increases in atmospheric CO₂ increased NPP by improving the water use efficiency. The results of this study show that the Tianshan Mount boreal forest ecosystem is sensitive to historical changes in climate and increasing atmospheric CO₂. The relative impacts of these variations on NPP interact in complex ways and are spatially variable, depending on local conditions and climate gradients. W. Sang and H. Su contributed equally to this paper, arranged in alphabetical order by surnames.     

恩施烟区无翅桃蚜在烤烟田空间动态的地统计学分析

恩施烟区是湖北省最大烟叶生产基地,桃蚜Myzuspercicae(Sulzer)是恩施烟叶最重要的害虫之一,桃蚜在田间的发生以及传播的病毒病害逐年加重,给烟业生产带来巨大损失。进一步了解桃蚜发生动态和空间分布规律,将提高对桃蚜的预测效果并为其综合防治提供理论依据。烟区和烟田之间的迁移以有翅蚜为主,田块内部的种群动态和发生规律,无翅桃蚜发挥着更加重要的作用。受寄主生理生化特性影响,不同烟叶生育期,桃蚜空间结构的差异需要进一步验证。经典的统计学方法以纯随机变量为基础,而昆虫种群的田间分布存在空间相关性,地学统计学承认空间相关性的存在,为区域化变量的空间分布分析提供新的理论和方法。在烟叶不同生育期进行无翅桃蚜的田间密度调查,运用地统计学的方法分析了其空间特征和发生动态,模拟了无翅桃蚜在烟叶不同生育期的田间分布图,并对无翅桃蚜在不同烟叶生育期田间分布格局的相关性进行了分析。结果表明:无翅桃蚜在烟叶苗期密度最小为(5.59±4.07)头/株,烟叶旺长期虫口密度最大为(14.5±9.6)头/株;种群密度变异系数均较大(0.6147-0.7281),表明其空间分布的不均匀性,并随密度的增大而减小,表明种群密度的增大一定程度上提高了种群结构的稳定性。烟叶苗期的种群分布曲线峰度最大,表现出更高的聚集性。无翅桃蚜在烟叶苗期的135°方向和团棵期的45。方向表现为随机分布。烟叶苗期的0°方向和45°方向可用线性有基台模型拟合,其他均可用球形+指数套合模型拟合,判断球形+指数套合模型是无翅桃蚜田间分布的主要模型,属于聚集型分布的范畴。块金值、基台值和变程均随田间虫口密度的增大而增大,苗期的随机程度(0.1905—0.7186)明显大于其他时期(0.0116—0.1620)。无翅桃蚜空间分布模拟图可以清晰地看出无翅桃蚜苗期迁移,旺长期后逐渐稳定的特性。无翅桃蚜的田间分布在烟叶苗期与团棵期无明显相关性,而团棵期与旺长期以及旺长期与成熟期显著相关,再次证明烟叶苗期到团棵期,无翅桃蚜的田间分布发生较大迁移,而团棵期以后基本定殖。烟叶苗期的无翅桃蚜高度聚集在少数烟株上,及早预防可以减少烟叶苗期虫口基数,有利于桃蚜种群数量的控制。首次将平面坐标系划分为4个方向,更加准确、全面地描述昆虫种群的空间分布特征。