Modelling spatial patterns of biodiversity for conservation prioritization in North-eastern Mexico

Relationships between spatial patterns of bird and mammal species richness in north‐eastern Mexico were analysed in relation to the location of three biosphere reserves (El Abra‐Tanchipa, El Cielo, and Sierra Gorda) and 13 priority areas recently identified for conservation. Ecological niches were modelled and potential distributions delimited for 285 bird and 114 mammal species using a genetic algorithm based on locality information from museum specimens and 15 selected environmental attributes. Potential distributions were transformed into hypothesized current distributions based on species–habitat associations as reflected in a recent land‐use map. Although species richness was lower when distributions were reduced from potential to current, spatial patterns of potential and current richness were similar. Heuristic, complementarity‐based prioritization procedures were used to identify combinations of areas and sites with maximal species representation: the biosphere reserves included 79% of birds and 74% of mammal species; eight priority areas provided an additional 11% of birds and 13% of mammals; the remaining 10% of birds and 13% of mammals were concentrated in new sites across the study area.     

Nature conservation at the edge

Currently, there is an increasing need for evidence-based strategies in nature conservation, for example when designing and establishing nature reserves. In this contribution, we critically assess the ecological relevance of recent nature conservation practices in Kenya (East Africa), a region of global biodiversity hotspots. More specifically, we overlay the distribution of species richness (here based on mammals, birds, amphibians and vascular plants) with the location of nature reserves, the Kenyan agro-ecological zones (areas representing diverging agricultural potentials), and with the spatial distribution of human population density. Our analyses indicate that the majority of protected areas are located in areas with comparatively low species richness, while areas with extraordinary high levels of species richness are not adequately covered by nature reserves. Areas of high agricultural productivity (and with high human demographic pressure) are mainly reserved for high-yield agriculture; however, these regions are also characterised by high species richness. The majority of nature reserves are restricted to the semi-arid regions of Kenya, marginal for agricultural usage, but also with low levels of species richness. Based on this analysis, we prioritize areas for future protection. This single-country case illustrates that agricultural production in high-yield areas outweighs nature conservation goals, even in global biodiversity hotspot regions, and that priority setting may conflict with effective nature conservation.     

Woody plants and the prediction of climate-change impacts on bird diversity

Current methods of assessing climate-induced shifts of species distributions rarely account for species interactions and usually ignore potential differences in response times of interacting taxa to climate change. Here, we used species-richness data from 1005 breeding bird and 1417 woody plant species in Kenya and employed model-averaged coefficients from regression models and median climatic forecasts assembled across 15 climate-change scenarios to predict bird species richness under climate change. Forecasts assuming an instantaneous response of woody plants and birds to climate change suggested increases in future bird species richness across most of Kenya whereas forecasts assuming strongly lagged woody plant responses to climate change indicated a reversed trend, i.e. reduced bird species richness. Uncertainties in predictions of future bird species richness were geographically structured, mainly owing to uncertainties in projected precipitation changes. We conclude that assessments of future species responses to climate change are very sensitive to current uncertainties in regional climate-change projections, and to the inclusion or not of time-lagged interacting taxa. We expect even stronger effects for more specialized plant–animal associations. Given the slow response time of woody plant distributions to climate change, current estimates of future biodiversity of many animal taxa may be both biased and too optimistic.     

An assessment of the efficiency of protection status through determinations of biodiversity hotspots based on endemic bird species,Taiwan

Evaluations of species richness patterns have been performed at diverse scales, and biodiversity hotspots, especially endemism hotspots, have received much attention in conservation biology. We estimated the distributions of endemic bird species based on a 12-yr avian inventory project in Taiwan, identified biodiversity hotspots of endemism on a regional scale based on predictions from the ensemble forecasting framework and frequency histogram approach, and assessed the efficiency of protected areas. The results indicated that the predicted endemism hotspots were mostly located in mid- and high-elevation areas along the Central Mountain Range of Taiwan. An observed endemism hotspot was defined as one in which at least five of Taiwan's 17 endemic bird species were present. This criterion was used because the 5% of the sampled grid squares that were the richest in endemic bird species all had 5 endemic bird species or more. Seventy to seventy-one percent of the observed biodiversity hotspots matched the predicted biodiversity hotspots. This outcome was obtained whether the richness biodiversity in a grid square was based on summed predicted probability or summed predicted richness. The majority of the protected areas for these Taiwanese endemic bird species were national parks, protecting 24.1% of the predicted hotspot areas, whereas nature reserves and wildlife refuges protected less than 7%. Most of the predicted endemism hotspots were not adequately protected. We conclude that the ensemble forecasting framework and the frequency histogram approach are useful for selecting critical habitats and biodiversity hotspots for endemic species and for appraising the efficiency of the protection status provided by governments.     

Conservation planning and viability: problems associated with identifying priority sites in Swaziland using species list data

Conservation planning assessments based on species atlas data are known to select planning units containing ecotones because these areas are relatively species‐rich. However, this richness is often dependent on the presence of adjoining core habitat, so populations within these ecotones might not be viable. This suggests that atlas data may also fail to distinguish between planning units that are highly transformed by agriculture or urbanization with those from neighbouring untransformed units. These highly transformed units could also be identified as priority sites, based solely on the presence of species that require adjoining habitat patches to persist. This potential problem was investigated using bird and mammal atlas data from Swaziland and a landcover map and found that: (i) there was no correlation between planning unit species richness and proportion of natural landcover for both taxa; (ii) the priority areas that were identified for both birds and mammals were no less transformed than if the units had been chosen at random and (iii) an approach that aimed to meet conservation targets and minimize transformation levels failed to identify more viable priority areas. This third result probably arose because 4.8% of the bird species and 22% of the mammal species were recorded in only one planning unit, reducing the opportunity to choose between units when aiming to represent each species. Therefore, it is suggested that using species lists to design protected area networks at a fine spatial scale may not conserve species effectively unless population viability data are explicitly included in the analysis.     

Relationship between avian range limits and plant transition zones in Maine

Aim To determine if vegetation complexity associated with transition zones may be a contributing factor affecting bird species distributions in Maine, USA, and in increased numbers of bird species at about 45° north latitude in northeastern North America. Location Maine, USA; North America north of Mexico. Methods We delineated the ranges within Maine (86,156 km²) of 186 bird species and 240 woody plants using literature and expert review. Maps showing species richness and numbers of range limits, at 324 km² resolution, were developed for woody plants and groups of breeding birds: forest specialists, forest generalists, and those that used barren and urban habitats, early successional areas, and wetlands or open water. Two plant transition zones for Maine were identified previously, with the north–south transition zone mapped across eastern North America. Patterns in bird distribution maps were compared to woody plant maps and to transition zones. Results When the distributions of forest specialists were compared to the north–south vegetation transition zone in Maine, they were spatially coincident, but were not for other groups. Forest specialists had more species with range limits in the state (61%) than generalists (13%) or any other group. At a continental‐scale, the vegetation transition zone within eastern North America agreed fairly well with the areas of highest bird richness. Main conclusions A bird transition zone occurs in Maine and across eastern North America, akin to and overlapping the vegetation transition zone. Seasonality is likely the primary source of the inverse gradient in bird richness in the eastern USA, as reported by others. However, vegetation structure and habitat selection at very broad spatial scales appear to contribute to the reversed gradient. North of the vegetation transition zone, forest structure is simpler and coniferous forests more dominant, and this may contribute to reduced bird species richness. However, the northern (> 49°) typical gradient in bird species richness has been related to many hypotheses, and several are likely involved in the genesis of the gradient.     

Environmental factors influencing bird species diversity in Kenya

Sustainable resource management requires understanding the factors that increase or decrease species richness. Regional species richness patterns may be predicted by analysing patterns of variation in the environment. A number of studies have shown that bird species richness at a regional scale is influenced by climatic variables. We examined environmental correlates of bird species richness at a quarter degree square scale (55 × 55 km). Mean annual potential evapotranspiration accounts for 46% of the observed variation in species richness, while mean annual temperature and range annual potential evapotranspiration are significantly correlated with species richness and together account for a further 5% of the observed variation. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that environmentally available energy limits regional species richness.     

Biogeographical comparison of winter bird assemblages in urban environments in Finland

We studied biogeographical variation of urban bird assemblages in Finland. Winter birds were censused by single-visit study plot method from thirty-one centres of villages or towns along 950 km latitudinal extent. A total twenty-eight bird species was observed and the average density was 61.2 ind./10 ha. The number of dominant species in study areas varied between two and seven and their proportion of the whole assemblage was over 70%. Species richness, but not the density of birds, decreased northwards in pooled data. Higher species richness in south than in north was mainly due to the higher amount of delayed migratory birds (e.g. waterbirds, finches) and southerly distributed bird species. However, in heavily urbanized areas species richness did not decrease northwards. This observation disagreed with the hypothesis that species richness decreased northwards. Bird density, but not species richness, increased with urbanization. In particular, feral pigeon, hooded crow and house sparrow had highest densities in most urbanized areas. As only few bird species are adapted to live in urban areas, species composition and dominant bird species were almost the same in the south and in the north. These urban birds may effectively use energy rich food in feeding tables and overcome the problems of severe climate in the north. This may be the reason why bird species richness does not decrease northwards in urban areas.     

Distribution, abundance and niche breadth of birds: scale matters

We used local habitat niche breadth, local abundance and body size of non-passerine afrotropical birds in Tsavo East National Park (Kenya) to predict species distributional ranges in Kenya and across Africa. Univariate analysis revealed a significant positive correlation between local abundance and distribution only on the scale of Kenya. Performing a multiple regression analysis, local abundance, local habitat niche breadth and body size explained a significant part of the variance in bird distribution, again only on the Kenyan scale. From these results, we speculate that on continental scales distributions may be more influenced by macroclimatic conditions and historical factors, whereas distributions on regional scales are predominantly influenced by ecological factors.     

Energy density and its variation in space limit species richness of boreal forest birds

Aim An area’s ability to support species may be dependent not only on the total amount of available energy it contains but also on energy density (i.e. available energy per unit area). Acknowledging these two aspects of energy availability may increase mechanistic understanding of how increased energy availability results in increased species richness. We studied the relationship between energy density, its variation in space and boreal forest bird species richness and investigated two possible mechanisms: (1) metabolic constraints of organisms, and (2) increased resource availability for specialists. Location Protected areas in Finland’s boreal forest. Methods We tested whether bird species richness was best determined by total energy availability in an area or by energy density and its variation within the area, before and after including bird abundance in the models. We evaluated two main explanatory variables: tree growth reflecting the rate of energy production and tree volume as a measure of biomass. In addition, we modelled individual species’ responses to energy density and its variation, and evaluated the prediction of the metabolic constraints hypothesis that small species are limited by energy density whereas large species are limited by total energy availability in the area. Results Energy density and its variation were good predictors of species richness: together with abundance they explained 84% of variation in species richness (compared with 74% for abundance alone). Pure metabolic constraints were unlikely to explain this relationship. Instead, the mechanism probably involved increased habitat heterogeneity benefiting specialist species. Total energy availability was also an important factor determining species richness but its effect was indirect via abundance. Main conclusions Our results corroborate the importance of energy availability as a driver of species richness in forest bird communities, and they indicate that energy density and its variation in the landscape strongly influence species richness even after accounting for abundance.     

城市公共绿地常见木本植物组成对鸟类群落的影响

快速城市化背景下, 城市公共绿地已经成为重要的鸟类栖息地, 其中的木本植物群落构成对鸟类群落结构有显著影响, 研究木本植物配置与鸟类多样性的关系对提升城市公共绿地作为鸟类栖息地的生态服务功能有重要的理论和应用价值。我们于2009–2010年间在上海市滨江森林公园就木本植物和鸟类群落的相互关系展开研究。样线法结合样点调查共记录到鸟类10目25科64种5,368只(次), 鸟类多度全年变化显著, 峰值分别出现在4月和11月。丰富度全年也呈现双峰型变化, 峰值出现在4月和12月。全年鸟类多样性(Simpson指数)差异显著, 10月最高, 8月最低。样方调查共记录到77种木本植物, 其中有14种(乔木9种、灌木5种)出现率超过5个样方, 定义为常见种, 其果期主要集中在9月到翌年2月, 其上常见林业致病害虫的发生盛期集中在5–11月。主成分分析显示, 常见木本植物上观察到的鸟类可划分为8个鸟类集团, Spearman秩相关检验显示秋冬季常见木本植物果期与植食性、肉食性、食虫性、杂食性等多个鸟类集团的多度均呈显著正相关。说明在秋冬季鸟类迁徙高峰期不同鸟类集团均能获得丰富的食物资源。就常见木本植物对鸟类群落的重要值进行排序, 结果显示, 大叶杨(Populus lasiocarpa)、枫杨(Pterocarya stenoptera)、香樟(Cinnamomum camphora)等乔木对鸟类重要值较高, 而灌木层对鸟类的重要性整体偏低, 说明滨江森林公园的灌木层作为鸟类栖息地的功能建设尚需加强。根据以上研究结果, 我们提出了提高上海城市公园鸟类多样性的植被配置建议。     

The potential impact of dryland salinity on the threatened flora and fauna of New South Wales

Summary We used digital map overlays in a geographical information system (GIS) to quantify the potential impact of dryland salinity on the threatened flora and fauna of New South Wales (NSW). Geographical areas of conservation priority were identified based on richness of threatened species with distribution records overlapping dryland salinity. Two alternative schemes – Interim Biogeographical Regionalization for Australia (regions) and catchment boundaries (catchments) – were used to subdivide NSW. Sydney Basin, North Coast and South-western Slopes regions – and Hunter, Sydney, Macquarie, Murrumbidgee and Lachlan catchments – were identified as priority areas with more than 10 salinity-overlap species present. Five threatened plant species were identified as priority species due to more than half of their known distributions overlapping areas of dryland salinity. Threatened animal species of most concern had 10–50% of their records overlapping areas of dryland salinity. Our findings demonstrate that landscape exposure to dryland salinity should be used in conjunction with total richness of threatened species for prioritizing conservation of geographical areas with respect to the potential impact of dryland salinity on threatened species.     

Assessing the effectiveness of protected areas for conserving range-restricted rain forest butterflies in Sabah,Borneo

Rain forests on Borneo support exceptional concentrations of endemic insect biodiversity, but many of these forest-dependent species are threatened by land-use change. Totally protected areas (TPAs) of forest are key for conserving biodiversity, and we examined the effectiveness of the current TPA network for conserving range-restricted butterflies in Sabah (Malaysian Borneo). We found that mean diurnal temperature range and precipitation of the wettest quarter of the year were the most important predictors of butterfly distributions (N = 77 range-restricted species), and that species richness increased with elevation and aboveground forest carbon. On average across all species, TPAs were effective at conserving ~43% of species’ ranges, but encompassed only ~40% of areas with high species richness (i.e., containing at least 50% of our study species). The TPA network also included only 33%–40% of areas identified as high priority for conserving range-restricted species, as determined by a systematic conservation prioritization analysis. Hence, the current TPA network is reasonably effective at conserving range-restricted butterflies, although considerable areas of high species richness (6,565 km²) and high conservation priority (11,152–12,531 km²) are not currently protected. Sabah's remaining forests, and the range-restricted species they support, are under continued threat from agricultural expansion and urban development, and our study highlights important areas of rain forest that require enhanced protection.     

Biogeographical patterns of endemic terrestrial Afrotropical birds

Biogeographical zones are described for terrestrial bird species endemic to the Afrotropics using up‐to‐date distributional data and multivariate statistical techniques. This provides an objective basis for a hierarchy of subregions, provinces and districts, based on a set of rules. Results are compared to previous studies at continental and regional scales. Biogeographical zones for passerines and non‐passerines are compared and found to be similar. Peaks of species richness and narrow endemism are described for the six major subdivisions (subregions) identified by the cluster analysis. Coincidence of peaks of species richness and narrow endemism is found to be low, such that areas selected to represent high species richness tallies will often fail to represent narrow endemics. Strong regionalization of Afrotropical birds indicates the need to use a biogeographical framework in conservation priority setting exercises to ensure that unique, but species‐poor, avifaunas are not neglected.     

Spatial congruence between ecotones and range-restricted species: implications for conservation biogeography at the sub-continental scale

Aim To examine whether at a sub‐continental scale range‐limited species tend to occur close to areas of transition between vegetation boundaries more often than expected by chance. Location South Africa and Lesotho. Methods We examined the relationship between the distance of a grid square to ecological transition areas between vegetation types and both avian and frog range‐limited species richness in the quadrat. We used quadrats at a spatial resolution of quarter degree (15′ × 15′≈ 676 km²). Spatial congruence between areas representing range‐restricted species and those representing ecological transition zones was assessed using a random draw technique. Results Species richness and range size rarity are generally negatively correlated with distance to transition areas between vegetation communities when analysed for the whole region for both groups. Although this relationship becomes weaker after controlling for environmental energy and topographical heterogeneity, the explanatory power of distance to transition areas remains significant, and compared to the different biomes examined, accounts for most of the variation in bird richness (20%), frog richness (18%), range‐restricted bird species (17%) and range‐restricted frog species (16%) in the savanna biome. The random draw technique indicated that areas representing range‐restricted species were situated significantly closer in space to those areas representing transition areas between vegetation communities than expected by chance. Main conclusions We find that at the sub‐continental scale, when examined for South Africa, areas of transition between vegetation communities hold concentrations of range‐limited species in both birds and frogs. We find that South African endemic/range‐limited birds and frogs are located closer to ecological transition zones than endemics and non‐endemics combined. This has important implications for ongoing conservation planning in a biogeographical context.     

Macro‐scale bird species richness patterns of the East Asian mainland and islands: energy,area and isolation

Aim To create a map of bird species richness (BSR) in East Asia and to examine the effect of area, isolation, primary productivity, topographic heterogeneity, and human population density on BSR. Location East Asia (from 70° E to 180° E longitude), including the eastern half of the Palaearctic Region, the entire Oriental Region, and the entire Wallacea Subregion. Methods The breeding ranges of 2406 terrestrial bird species were mapped and overlaid to create a species richness map. The BSR map was transformed into a 100 × 100 km quadrat system, and BSR was analysed in relation to land area, average normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), elevation range, and average population density. Results In general, BSR declined from the Tropics to the Arctic. In mainland East Asia, however, BSR was highest around the Tropic of Cancer, and fluctuated between 30° and 50° N. Islands had lower BSR than adjacent mainland areas. The NDVI was strongly positively correlated with BSR in mainland areas and on islands. For mainland areas, NDVI explained 65% of the BSR variation, and topographic heterogeneity explained an additional 6% in ordinary least‐squares regression. On islands, NDVI explained 66% of BSR variation, island area explained 13%, and distance to mainland accounted for 1%. Main conclusions In East Asia, we suggest that primary productivity is the key factor underpinning patterns of BSR. Primary productivity sets the upper limits of the capacity of habitats to support bird species. In isolated areas such as islands and peninsulas, however, BSR might not reach the richness limits set by primary productivity because the degree of isolation and area size also can affect species richness. Other factors, such as spatial heterogeneity, biotic interactions, and perturbations, may also affect species richness. However, their effects are secondary and are not as strong as primary productivity, isolation, and area size.     

Modeling Spatial Trends in Estimated Species Richness using Breeding Bird Survey Data: A Valuable Tool in Biodiversity Assessment

We used data from the French breeding bird survey to estimate local bird species richness within sampled sites, using capture–recapture models. We investigated the possible effects of habitat structure and composition (landscape fragmentation, habitat cover and diversity) on estimated species richness at a local scale, and used the identified trends to help with modeling species richness at a large spatial scale. We performed geostatistical analyses based on spatial autocorrelation – cokriging models – to interpolate estimated species richness over the entire country, providing an opportunity to predict species-rich areas. We further compared species richness obtained with this method to species and rarity richness obtained using a national atlas of breeding birds. Estimated species richness was higher in species richness hotspots identified by the atlas. Combining informations on rare species from Atlas and species richness estimates from sound sampling based schemes should help with identifying species-rich areas for various taxa and locating biodiversity hotspots to be protected as high conservation value areas, especially in temperate zones where diversity hotspots are likely to match centers of high species richness because of very few centers of true endemicity.     

How well do Important Bird Areas represent species and minimize conservation conflict in the tropical Andes?

Where high species richness and high human population density coincide, potential exists for conflict between the imperatives of species conservation and human development. We examine the coincidence of at‐risk bird species richness and human population in the countries of the tropical Andes. We then compare the performance of the expert‐driven Important Bird Areas (IBA) scheme against a hypothetical protected‐areas network identified with a systematic reserve selection algorithm seeking to maximize at‐risk bird species representation. Our aim is to assess the degree to which: IBAs contain a higher richness of at‐risk species than would be expected by chance, IBAs contain more people than would be expected by chance, and IBAs are congruent with complementary areas that maximize species representation with an equivalent number of sites. While the correlation of richness and population was low for the region as a whole, representation of all at‐risk bird species required many sites to be located in areas of high human population density. IBA sites contained higher human population densities than expected by chance (P < 0.05) and were markedly less efficient in representing at‐risk bird species of the region than sites selected using the reserve selection algorithm. Moreover, overlap between IBAs and these latter sites was very limited. Expert‐driven selection procedures may better reflect existing sociopolitical forces, including land ownership and management regimes, but are limited in their ability to develop an efficient, integrated network of sites to represent priority species. Reserve selection algorithms may serve this end by optimizing complementarity in species representation among selected sites, whether these sites are adopted independently or as a supplement to the existing reserve network. As tools of site selection, they may be particularly useful in areas such as the tropical Andes where complex patterns of species disjunction and co‐occurrence make the development of representative reserve networks particularly difficult. Furthermore, they facilitate making spatially explicit choices about how reserve sites are located in relation to human populations. We advocate their use not in replacement of approaches such as the IBA initiative but as an additional, complementary tool in ensuring that such reserve networks are developed as efficiently as practically possible.     

Bird dietary guild richness across latitudes,environments and biogeographic regions

Aim To integrate dietary knowledge and species distributions in order to examine the latitudinal, environmental, and biogeographical variation in the species richness of avian dietary guilds (herbivores, granivores, frugivores, nectarivores, aerial insectivores, terrestrial/arboreal insectivores, carnivores, scavengers, and omnivores). Location Global. Methods We used global breeding range maps and a comprehensive dietary database of all terrestrial bird species to calculate guild species richness for grid cells at 110 × 110 km resolution. We assessed congruence of guild species richness, quantified the steepness of latitudinal gradients and examined the covariation between species richness and climate, topography, habitat diversity and biogeographic history. We evaluated the potential of current environment and biogeographic history to explain global guild distribution and compare observed richness–environment relationships with those derived from random subsets of the global species pool. Results While most guilds (except herbivores and scavengers) showed strong congruence with overall bird richness, covariation in richness between guilds varied markedly. Guilds exhibited different peaks in species richness in geographical and multivariate environmental space, and observed richness–environment relationships mostly differed from random expectations. Latitudinal gradients in species richness were steepest for terrestrial/arboreal insectivores, intermediate for frugivores, granivores and carnivores, and shallower for all other guilds. Actual evapotranspiration emerged as the strongest climatic predictor for frugivores and insectivores, seasonality for nectarivores, and temperature for herbivores and scavengers (with opposite direction of temperature effect). Differences in species richness between biogeographic regions were strongest for frugivores and nectarivores and were evident for nectarivores, omnivores and scavengers when present‐day environment was statistically controlled for. Guild richness–environment relationships also varied between regions. Main conclusions Global associations of bird species richness with environmental and biogeographic variables show pronounced differences between guilds. Geographic patterns of bird diversity might thus result from several processes including evolutionary innovations in dietary preferences and environmental constraints on the distribution and diversification of food resources.     

Forecasting potential routes for movement of endemic birds among important sites for biodiversity in the Albertine Rift under projected climate change

The ability of species to shift their distributions in response to climate change may be impeded by lack of suitable climate or habitat between species’ current and future ranges. We examined the potential for climate and forest cover to limit the movement of bird species among sites of biodiversity importance in the Albertine Rift, East Africa, a biodiversity hotspot. We forecasted future distributions of suitable climate for 12 Albertine Rift endemic bird species using species distribution models based on current climate data and projections of future climate. We used these forecasts alongside contemporary forest cover and natal dispersal estimates to project potential movement of species over time. We identified potentially important pathways for the bird species to move among 30 important bird and biodiversity areas (IBAs) that are both currently forested and projected to provide suitable climate over intervening time periods. We examined the relative constraints imposed by availability of suitable climate and forest cover on future movements. The analyses highlighted important pathways of potential dispersal lying along a north‐south axis through high elevation areas of the Albertine Rift. Both forest availability and climate suitability were projected to influence bird movement through these landscapes as they are affected by future climate change. Importantly, forest cover and areas projected to contain suitable climate in future were often dissociated in space, which could limit species’ responses to climate change. A lack of climatically suitable areas was a far greater impediment to projected movement among IBAs than insufficient forest cover. Although current forest cover appears sufficient to facilitate movement of bird species in this region, protecting the remaining forests in areas also projected to be climatically suitable for species to move through in the future should be a priority for adaptation management.