From arctic lemmings to adaptive dynamics: Charles Elton's legacy in population ecology

We shall examine the impact of Charles S. Elton's 1924 article on periodic fluctuations in animal populations on the development of modern population ecology. We argue that his impact has been substantial and that during the past 75 years of research on multi-annual periodic fluctuations in numbers of voles, lemmings, hares, lynx and game animals he has contributed much to the contemporary understanding of the causes and consequences of population regulation. Elton was convinced that the cause of the regular fluctuations was climatic variation. To support this conclusion, he examined long-term population data then available. Despite his firm belief in a climatic cause of the self-repeating periodic dynamics which many species display, Elton was insightful and far-sighted enough to outline many of the other hypotheses since put forward as an explanation for the enigmatic long-term dynamics of some animal populations. An interesting, but largely neglected aspect in Elton's paper is that it ends with speculation regarding the evolutionary consequences of periodic population fluctuations. The modern understanding of these issues will also be scrutinised here. In population ecology, Elton's 1924 paper has spawned a whole industry of research on populations displaying multi-annual periodicity. Despite the efforts of numerous research teams and individuals focusing on the origins of multi-annual population cycles, and despite the early availability of different explanatory hypotheses, we are still lacking rigorous tests of some of these hypotheses and, consequently, a consensus of the causes of periodic fluctuations in animal populations. Although Elton would have been happy to see so much effort spent on cyclic populations, we also argue that it is unfortunate if this focus on a special case of population dynamics should distract our attention from more general problems in population and community dynamics.     

中国兽类种群生态学研究进展与展望

兽类种群生态学是现代生态学的核心研究内容。Charles Sutherland Elton在20世纪20年代发现小哺乳动物种群波动现象,标志着现代种群生态学研究的开始。什么因素调节种群波动的问题一直是现代种群生态学领域的研究热点。我国兽类种群生态学研究始于20世纪50年代,迄今,已走过了70年的发展历程,并取得了重要成果。本综述基于20世纪50年代以来我国学者在主流中文期刊及科学引文索引（Science Citation Index,简称SCI）刊物发表的历史文献,分别从种群波动格局、种群统计参数变化、种群内部和外部调节等不同层面评述了我国在鼠类和大型兽类种群生态学的研究历程及现状,同时探讨了未来的研究方向。     

食物限制对鼠类生理状况的影响

食物限制对鼠类生理特征产生明显影响。限食条件下,鼠类的能量消耗下降,能量需求降低,糖类、蛋白质和脂肪等物质的代谢过程及相应的酶活性改变,细胞免疫功能降低,神经内分泌发生变化,性成熟延迟,动情周期改变,动情行为受到抑制,生殖力下降,仔代的发育受到影响,性比发生变化。现就该领域近年来的研究进展做一综述,并提出一些新的思路。     

小型哺乳动物种群周期性波动的自我调节假说

种群调节是种群生态学的一个核心问题。文章主要阐述了小型哺乳动物种群在其低数量期自我调节的4 种可能假说和相关的实验证据。其中, 有关衰老—母体效应假说近年已受到普遍重视, 而支持多态行为假说、社会生物学假说和远交假说的证据较少, 尚需更多的实验来加以验证。衰老—母体效应假说是在应激假说的基础上发展而成的。该假说认为, 母体质量会在整个高峰期的动物中发生改变, 并能够延续到衰减期和低数量期。在低数量期, 种群内的老年个体增多, 导致它们不能维持内分泌的自稳态, 可能通过影响后代的存活和生殖而维持低数量, 进而起到调节种群周期的作用。针对国际上研究的发展趋势, 我们还对未来的研究方向提出了一些建议。     

Why do populations of small rodents cycle? A new hypothesis with numerical model

Summary A hypothesis for explaining the mechanism population of cycles in small rodents and the phenomena associated with these cycles is presented and supported by a numerical model. In strongly seasonal environments, with high reproductive ability and low mortality of rodents, the population size increases to a point at which either females refrain from breeding for the entire season or progeny of these females do not survive to produce their own progeny and a large proportion of animals die of old age. This brings about a population crash. The amplitudes of the cycles are high due to dispersal of animals without home ranges to the habitat which is only seasonably available and back to permanently available habitat. Without high reproductive abilities of animals and their good survival, only annual fluctuations are possible. Seven wellknown features of the cyclic populations are explained by the model and eight new predictions concerning these populations are given. The relations to other hypotheses are discussed briefly.     

The latitudinal herbivory hypothesis revisited: To be part is to be whole

As the big data accumulation in ecology picks up pace, we now have the opportunity to test several macroecological hypotheses, such as the latitudinal herbivory hypothesis (LHH) dated from the 1990s. The LHH proposes that plant–herbivore interactions decrease as latitude increases, that is, from lower latitudinal areas (i.e., the equator) to higher latitudinal areas (i.e., the poles). This hypothesis has been challenged in recent years. In this study, we used the greatest volume dataset of leaf herbivory from the study of Zhang et al. (Journal of Ecology, 104, 2016, 1089) to test the LHH at a global scale, based on a quantile regression model. We found that the mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, and potential net primary production were heterogeneously correlated with herbivory at different quantiles or variable intervals. Although the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the global‐scale trends are in accordance with the expected latitudinal variation, the Southern Hemisphere (SH) was found to exhibit inverse trends. The latitude has a negative effect on plant–herbivore interactions in the NH and on a global scale; leaf herbivory decreased more at a given latitude in higher latitudinal areas, which is attributed to harsher survival conditions in these areas. The uniformity of leaf herbivory variability along the climate and latitude gradient in the NH and on a global scale motivates that the loosening of this herbivory variability in the SH is not significant enough to dismiss the prevalence of the LHH, a testable macroecology hypothesis.     

Numerical response of small mustelids to vole abundance: delayed or not?

One of the most studied problems in population ecology has been to understand the relative roles of top–down and bottom–up forces in regulating animal populations. This has also been a key issue in studies of vole population dyna mics. Vole populations exhibit a wide variation of dynamics, from seasonal fluctuations to multiannual variations or cyclicity. One of the hypotheses to explain cyclic population dynamics is predation by the specialist predators. A common counterargument against the predation hypothesis has been the lack of conclusive observations of the time delay in the predators’ numerical response. We studied the interaction between voles and their specialist small mustelid predators, the stoat Mustela erminea and the least weasel Mustela n. nivalis, by modelling their interaction to data sets that cover large areas of Finland. Vole abundance was monitored with biannual trappings and their predators with snow‐tracking. Results show a high dependence of the predators on the voles, and this connection is generally tighter in weasels than in stoats. Weasel abundance is affected most strongly by the vole abundance in previous spring, 8.5– 10 months earlier, while in stoats the effect of autumn abundance of voles, 2.5–6 months earlier, was the strongest. These results, together with the observation that the weasels’ effects on voles are stronger after a time lag of 6–9.5 than 2–4.5 months, indicate the existence of a time lag in weasels’ numerical response. A time lag in the predators’ numerical response is a necessary condition for the predators to drive population cycles in its prey, and therefore our results support the specialist predation hypothesis.     

小型哺乳动物种群周期性波动的外因调节假说

对小型哺乳动物种群数量周期性波动的外因调节假说进行介绍 ,概述了食物假说、捕食假说和复合因子假说的主要内容和研究进展。在少数生存环境严酷的小型哺乳动物种群中 ,食物假说能解释它们的周期性数量波动现象 ,可能作为调节因子起作用 ,但难以说明低数量期的确切机制 ,对于大多数小型哺乳动物而言 ,它更可能作为限制因子。捕食假说解释了北欧芬诺斯坎底亚地区某些种群的周期性波动 ,尤其是捕食的间接效应已引起许多学者的关注 ,但也有不支持该假说的证据。对于复合因子假说 ,近年颇受学者重视 ,其中验证食物和捕食交互及累加作用的实验证据较多 ,有的研究还包括气候、种间竞争、空间或社会行为等因素。有关复合因子的实验研究 ,尽管工作是困难和艰巨的 ,花费也是巨大的 ,但所得结果却极有价值 ,为深入理解种群动态调节理论提供了一个合理而有效的手段     

Historical diversification of a terra-firme forest bird superspecies: a phylogeographic perspective on the role of different hypotheses of Amazonian diversification

Among those few hypotheses of Amazonian diversification amenable to falsification by phylogenetic and population genetics methods, three can be singled out because of their general application to vertebrates: the riverine barrier, the refuge, and the Miocene marine incursion hypotheses. I used phylogenetic and population genetics methods to reconstruct the diversification history of the upland (terra-firme) forest superspecies Xiphorhynchus spixii/elegans (Aves: Dendrocolaptidae) in Amazonia, and to evaluate predictions of the riverine barrier, refuge, and Miocene marine incursion hypotheses. Phylogeographic and population genetics analyses of the X. spixiilelegans superspecies indicated that the main prediction of the riverine barrier hypothesis (that sister lineages occur across major rivers) hold only for populations separated by "clear-water" rivers located on the Brazilian shield, in central and eastern Amazonia; in contrast, "white-water" rivers located in western Amazonia did not represent areas of primary divergence for populations of this superspecies. The main prediction derived from the refuge hypothesis (that populations of the X. spixii/elegans superspecies would show signs of past population bottlenecks and recent demographic expansions) was supported only for populations found in western Amazonia, where paleoecological data have failed to support past rainforest fragmentation and expansion of open vegetation types; conversely, populations from the eastern and central parts of Amazonia, where paleoecological data are consistent with an historical interplay between rainforest and open vegetation types, did not show population genetics attributes expected under the refuge hypothesis. Phylogeographic and population genetics data were consistent with the prediction made by the Miocene marine incursion hypothesis that populations of the X. spixii/elegans superspecies found on the Brazilian shield were older than populations from other parts of Amazonia. In contrast, the phylogeny obtained for lineages of this superspecies falsified the predicted monophyly of Brazilian shield populations, as postulated by the Miocene marine incursion hypothesis. In general, important predictions of both riverine barrier and Miocene marine incursion hypotheses were supported, indicating that they are not mutually exclusive; in fact, the data presented herein suggest that an interaction among geology, sea level changes, and hydrography created opportunities for cladogenesis in the X. spixii/elegans superspecies at different temporal and geographical scales.     

Zooplankton research: the contribution of limnology to general ecological paradigms

Biotic interactions and density dependent processes are particularly important in the pelagic zone of a lake. Plankton has numerous properties (e.g., short life cycles, size structure) that makes them suitable objects for testing hypotheses and developing concepts relevant for general ecology. Zooplankton being in the center of aquatic food webs and influenced strongly by both bottom-up and top-down processes have often been used as models for ecological paradigms. The trophic-dynamic concept, the theory of population dynamics, and the analysis of predator-prey relationships are examples of successful contributions of zooplankton research. In recent years, zooplankton research has developed new ideas in community, population and evolutionary ecology. This is illustrated by studies on mechanisms of seasonal succession, competition and phenotypic plasticity. The new concept of physiological ecology is explained with copepod diapause behaviour. The blending of ideas from ecology and evolutionary genetics, which is undergoing a rapid development of new tools, will create new paradigms in the future, and zooplankton research will play an important part in this process.     

The form of host density-dependence and the likelihood of host-pathogen cycles in forest-insect systems

Forest-insect systems frequently show cyclic dynamics which has been of considerable interest to both experimental and theoretical ecologists. One important issue has been the manner in which density-dependence acting on the host population through resource competition influences the likelihood of population cycles. Existing models make contradictory predictions. Here, we explore two models that allow different forms of density-dependence to be examined. We find that host density-dependence can influence the persistence of the host-pathogen interaction, the likelihood of population cycles and the stability of the host-pathogen interaction. In particular, over-compensatory density-dependence is likely to lead to host-pathogen cycles while under-compensatory density-dependence can promote stability. We discuss these differences with reference to the different forms of intraspecific competition and recent developments in insect population ecology.     

Feedback structures of northern small rodent populations

Regular oscillations of northern small rodents (lemmings, voles and mice) have fascinated ecologists for decades. In particular, cycles exhibited by Fennoscandian voles have inspired population ecologists to propose several hypotheses for their underlying causes. Although there is now some agreement that the interaction with specialist predators is involved, many aspects remain enigmatic, one being the precise ecological mechanism involved in the first-order feedback effect (i.e. direct density dependence). In this paper we evaluate the relative importance of first and second-order negative feedback on small rodent dynamics in 64 data sets, assess the evidence of non-linearity in the feedback structure, and look for similarities and/or differences between species and places. A clear feature of our analysis was the highly consistent pattern of first-order dynamics across species and locations, suggesting the importance of intra-specific interactions independent of local environmental conditions. Second-order feedback generally showed a large degree of variation and appears to be strongly dependent on environmental conditions and locality. There seems to be no consistent latitudinal pattern or non-linearity in the feedback responses. We conclude that northern small rodent populations are basically regulated by both highly consistent first-order feedback (e.g. intra-specific competition, functional responses of generalist predators) and less consistent, site-specific second-order effects (e.g. numerical responses of specialist predators or food plants).     

Parasitism of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi: reviewing the evidence.

In order to understand the functioning of mycorrhizal fungi in ecosystems it is necessary to consider the full suite of possible biotic interactions in the soil. While a number of such interactions have recently been shown to be crucially important, parasitism is a highly neglected feature in the ecology of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF). A number of studies have classified some interactions between populations of bacteria and fungi with AMF as parasitism, generating discussion about its consequences at both 'parasite' and host population levels. This paper reviews these various publications, and based on a set of criteria that are necessary to demonstrate parasitism, it was concluded that parasitism has not been conclusively shown to exist in AMF, even though some data are highly suggestive of such a relationship. The difficulties in gathering data supportive of parasitism were discussed, and hypotheses for defense were offered. This paper concludes by presenting potential consequences of AMF parasitism at the population/community levels and by discussing applied aspects.     

Using nested clade analysis to assess the history of colonization and the persistence of populations of an Iberian Lizard

The distribution of the lizard Lacerta schreiberi is likely to have been severely affected by the climatic cycles that have influenced the Iberian Peninsula. Information about the species ecology and Iberian physiogeography was used to generate specific hypotheses about episodes of colonization and subsequent population persistence. These hypotheses generated predictions about the distribution of genetic variation, which were tested using nested clade analysis (NCA) supplemented by analysis of molecular variance (amova). Two predictions were confirmed by NCA; that is those that specified multiple and allopatric refugia. However, the remaining three predictions were not corroborated by the analyses. Firstly, a simple analysis of the distribution of genetic variability failed to detect an expected difference in the pattern of colonization between the inland mountain system and the coastal region. Moreover, while NCA did detect the expected genetic pattern in southern coastal populations, it was explained in terms of long-distance migration, which seems implausible because of the extent of unsuitable habitat. A more likely cause of the pattern is population fragmentation and a reduction in population size caused during the Holocene. Finally, NCA also failed to detect a northwestern population expansion, which is supported by other evidence. We conclude that NCA has a limited ability to detect range expansion led by individuals with more ancestral (interior) haplotypes.     

Do mothers prefer helpers or smaller litters? Birth sex ratio and litter size adjustment in cotton-top tamarins (Saguinus oedipus)

Sex allocation theory has been a remarkably productive field in behavioral ecology with empirical evidence regularly supporting quantitative theoretical predictions. Across mammals in general and primates in particular, however, support for the various hypotheses has been more equivocal. Population‐level sex ratio biases have often been interpreted as supportive, but evidence for small‐scale facultative adjustment has rarely been found. The helper repayment (HR) also named the local resource enhancement (LRE) hypothesis predicts that, in cooperatively breeding species, mothers invest more in the sex which assists with rearing future offspring and that this bias will be more pronounced in mothers who require extra assistance (i.e., due to inexperience or a lack of available alloparents). We tested these hypotheses in captive cotton‐top tamarins (Saguinus oedipus) utilizing the international studbook and birth records obtained through a questionnaire from ISIS‐registered institutions. Infant sex, litter size, mother's age, parity, and group composition (presence of nonreproductive subordinate males and females) were determined from these records. The HR hypothesis was supported over the entire population, which was significantly biased toward males (the “helpful” sex). We found little support for helper repayment at the individual level, as primiparous females and those in groups without alloparents did not exhibit more extreme tendencies to produce male infants. Primiparous females were, however, more likely to produce singleton litters. Singleton births were more likely to be male, which suggests that there may be an interaction between litter size adjustment and sex allocation. This may be interpreted as supportive of the HR hypothesis, but alternative explanations at both the proximate and ultimate levels are possible. These possibilities warrant further consideration when attempting to understand the ambiguous results of primate sex ratio studies so far.     

Origins of female genital diversity: Predation risk and lock‐and‐key explain rapid divergence during an adaptive radiation

The study of male genital diversity has long overshadowed evolutionary inquiry of female genitalia, despite its nontrivial diversity. Here, we identify four nonmutually exclusive mechanisms that could lead to genital divergence in females, and potentially generate patterns of correlated male–female genital evolution: (1) ecological variation alters the context of sexual selection (“ecology hypothesis”), (2) sexually antagonistic selection (“sexual‐conflict hypothesis”), (3) female preferences for male genitalia mediated by female genital traits (“female‐choice hypothesis”), and (4) selection against inter‐population mating (“lock‐and‐key hypothesis”). We performed an empirical investigation of all four hypotheses using the model system of Bahamas mosquitofish inhabiting blue holes that vary in predation risk. We found unequivocal support for the ecology hypothesis, with females exhibiting a smaller genital opening in blue holes containing piscivorous fish. This is consistent with stronger postmating female choice/conflict when predators are present, but greater premating female choice in their absence. Our results additionally supported the lock‐and‐key hypothesis, uncovering a pattern of reproductive character displacement for genital shape. We found no support for the sexual conflict or female choice hypotheses. Our results demonstrate a strong role for ecology in generating female genital diversity, and suggest that lock‐and‐key may provide a viable cause of female genital diversification.     

Cowpox virus infection in natural field vole Microtus agrestis populations: significant negative impacts on survival

1. Cowpox virus is an endemic virus circulating in populations of wild rodents. It has been implicated as a potential cause of population cycles in field voles Microtus agrestis L., in Britain, owing to a delayed density-dependent pattern in prevalence, but its impact on field vole demographic parameters is unknown. This study tests the hypothesis that wild field voles infected with cowpox virus have a lower probability of survival than uninfected individuals. 2. The effect of cowpox virus infection on the probability of an individual surviving to the next month was investigated using longitudinal data collected over 2 years from four grassland sites in Kielder Forest, UK. This effect was also investigated at the population level, by examining whether infection prevalence explained temporal variation in survival rates, once other factors influencing survival had been controlled for. 3. Individuals with a probability of infection, P(I), of 1 at a time when base survival rate was at median levels had a 22.4% lower estimated probability of survival than uninfected individuals, whereas those with a P(I) of 0.5 had a 10.4% lower survival. 4. At the population level, survival rates also decreased with increasing cowpox prevalence, with lower survival rates in months of higher cowpox prevalence. 5. Simple matrix projection models with 28 day time steps and two stages, with 71% of voles experiencing cowpox infection in their second month of life (the average observed seroprevalence at the end of the breeding season) predict a reduction in 28-day population growth rate during the breeding season from lambda = 1.62 to 1.53 for populations with no cowpox infection compared with infected populations. 6. This negative correlation between cowpox virus infection and field vole survival, with its potentially significant effect on population growth rate, is the first for an endemic pathogen in a cyclic population of wild rodents.     

High fidelity: extra‐pair fertilisations in eight Charadrius plover species are not associated with parental relatedness or social mating system

Extra‐pair paternity is a common reproductive strategy in many bird species. However, it remains unclear why extra‐pair paternity occurs and why it varies among species and populations. Plovers (Charadrius spp.) exhibit considerable variation in reproductive behaviour and ecology, making them excellent models to investigate the evolution of social and genetic mating systems. We investigated inter‐ and intra‐specific patterns of extra‐pair parentage and evaluated three major hypotheses explaining extra‐pair paternity using a comparative approach based on the microsatellite genotypes of 2049 individuals from 510 plover families sampled from twelve populations that constituted eight species. Extra‐pair paternity rates were very low (0 to 4.1% of chicks per population). No evidence was found in support of the sexual conflict or genetic compatibility hypotheses, and there was no seasonal pattern of extra‐pair paternity (EPP). The low prevalence of EPP is consistent with a number of alternative hypotheses, including the parental investment hypothesis, which suggests that high contribution to care by males restricts female plovers from engaging in extra‐pair copulations. Further studies are needed to critically test the importance of this hypothesis for mate choice in plovers.     

The importance of physiological ecology in conservation biology

Many of the threats to the persistence of populations of sensitivespecies have physiological or pathological mechanisms, and thosemechanisms are best understood through the inherently integrativediscipline of physiological ecology. The desert tortoise waslisted under the Endangered Species Act largely due to a newlyrecognized upper respiratory disease thought to cause mortalityin individuals and severe declines in populations. Numeroushypotheses about the threats to the persistence of desert tortoisepopulations involve acquisition of nutrients, and its connectionto stress and disease. The nutritional wisdom hypothesis positsthat animals should forage not for particular food items, butinstead, for particular nutrients such as calcium and phosphorusused in building bones. The optimal foraging hypothesis suggeststhat, in circumstances of resource abundance, tortoises shouldforage as dietary specialists as a means of maximizing intakeof resources. The optimal digestion hypothesis suggests thattortoises should process ingesta in ways that regulate assimilationrate. Finally, the cost-of-switching hypothesis suggests thatherbivores, like the desert tortoise, should avoid switchingfood types to avoid negatively affecting the microbe communityresponsible for fermenting plants into energy and nutrients.Combining hypotheses into a resource acquisition theory leadsto novel predictions that are generally supported by data presentedhere. Testing hypotheses, and synthesizing test results intoa theory, provides a robust scientific alternative to the popularuse of untested hypotheses and unanalyzed data to assert theneeds of species. The scientific approach should focus on hypothesesconcerning anthropogenic modifications of the environment thatimpact physiological processes ultimately important to populationphenomena. We show how measurements of such impacts as nutrientstarvation, can cause physiological stress, and that the endocrinemechanisms involved with stress can result in disease. Finally,our new syntheses evince a new hypothesis. Free molecules ofthe stress hormone corticosterone can inhibit immunity, andthe abundance of "free corticosterone" in the blood (thoughtto be the active form of the hormone) is regulated when thecorticosterone molecules combine with binding globulins. Thesex hormone, testosterone, combines with the same binding globulin.High levels of testosterone, naturally occurring in the breedingseason, may be further enhanced in populations at high densities,and the resulting excess testosterone may compete with bindingglobulins, thereby releasing corticosterone and reducing immunityto disease. This sequence could result in physiological andpathological phenomena leading to population cycles with a periodthat would be essentially impossible to observe in desert tortoise.Such cycles could obscure population fluctuations of anthropogenicorigin.     

Vole population cycles in northern and southern Europe: is there a need for different explanations for single pattern?

1. Students of population cycles in small rodents in Fennoscandia have accumulated support for the predation hypothesis, which states that the gradient in cycle length and amplitude running from southern to northern Fennoscandia reflects the relative influence of specialist and generalist predators on vole dynamics, itself modulated by the presence of snow cover. The hypothesized role of snow cover is to isolate linked specialist predators, primarily the least weasel, Mustela n. nivalis L. and their prey, primarily field voles Microtus agrestis L., from the stabilizing influence of generalist predators. 2. The predation hypothesis does not readily account for the high amplitude and regular 3-year cycles of common voles documented in agricultural areas of western, central and eastern Europe. Such cycles are rarely mentioned in the literature pertaining to Fennoscandian cycles. 3. We consider new data on population cycles and demographic patterns of common voles Microtus arvalis Pallas in south-west France. We show that the patterns are wholly consistent with five of six patterns that characterize rodent cycles in Fennoscandia and that are satisfactorily explained by the predation hypothesis. They include the: (a) existence of cycle; (b) the occurrence of long-term changes in relative abundance and type of dynamics; (c) geographical synchrony over large areas; (d) interspecific synchrony; and (e) voles are large in the increase and peak phase and small in decline and low phase, namely. There is a striking similarity between the patterns shown by common vole populations in south-west France and those from Fennoscandian cyclic rodent populations, although the former are not consistent with a geographical extension of the latitudinal gradient south of Fennoscandia. 4. It is possible that the dominant interaction leading to multiannual rodent oscillations is different in different regions. We argue, however, that advocates of the predation hypothesis should embrace the challenge of developing a widely applicable explanation to population cycles, including justifying any limits to its applicability on ecological and not geographical grounds.