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1.

This study aimed to estimate (1) the number of avoidable lung cancer cases attributable to residential radon in Finland in 2017, separately by age, sex, dwelling type and smoking status, (2) the impact of residential radon alone and the joint effect of residential radon and smoking on the number of lung cancers and (3) the potential decrease in the number of radon-attributable lung cancers if radon concentrations exceeding specified action levels (100, 200 and 300 Bq m?3) would have been mitigated to those levels. Population-based surveys of radon concentrations and smoking patterns were used. Observed radon levels were contrasted with 25 Bq m?3 representing a realistic minimum level of exposure. Lung cancer risk estimates for radon and smoking were derived from literature. Lastly, the uncertainty due to the estimation of exposure and risk was quantified using a computationally derived uncertainty interval. At least 3% and at most 8% of all lung cancers were estimated as being attributable to residential radon. For small cell carcinoma, the proportion of cases attributable to radon was 8–13%. Among smokers, the majority of the radon-related cases were attributable to the joint effect of radon and smoking. Reduction of radon exposure to 100 Bq m?3 action level would eliminate approximately 30% of radon-attributable cases. Estimates were low compared with the literature, given the (relatively high) radon levels in Finland. This was mainly due to the lower radon levels and higher smoking prevalence in flats than in houses and a more realistic point of comparison, factors which have been ignored in previous studies. The results can guide actions in radon protection and in prevention of lung cancers.

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2.
Based on theoretical estimates and various correlation studies, it has been suggested that ingestion of radon in drinking water represents an increased risk for cancer. Such a risk has never been conclusively shown in epidemiological or experimental animal studies, however, and it has been questioned whether the radon level in the drinking water is of any significance in terms of overall radon exposure. Using primary DNA damage as a biological marker for an ongoing exposure to ionising radiation, the present study was undertaken to investigate whether people with different types of residential radon exposures differed with regard to their levels of DNA damage in circulating lymphocytes. DNA damage was measured in coded blood samples from 125 residents living in 45 households with different levels of radon-222 in the drinking water (10-2410 Bq/l) and indoor air (35-1025 Bq/m3) using alkaline single cell gel electrophoresis (the 'Comet' assay). Increased levels of radon in indoor air (>200 Bq/m3) were found to be associated with an increased level of DNA damage in peripheral lymphocytes (P相似文献   

3.
4.
This study is a comprehensive analysis of the latest follow-up of the Colorado uranium miners cohort using the two-stage clonal expansion model with particular emphasis on effects related to age and exposure. The model provides a framework in which the hazard function for lung cancer mortality incorporates detailed information on exposure to radon and radon progeny from hard rock and uranium mining together with information on cigarette smoking. Even though the effect of smoking on lung cancer risk is explicitly modeled, a significant birth cohort effect is found which shows a linear increase in the baseline lung cancer risk with birth year of the miners in the cohort. The analysis based on the two-stage clonal expansion model suggests that exposure to radon affects both the rate of initiation of intermediate cells in the pathway to cancer and the rate of proliferation of intermediate cells. However, in contrast to the promotional effect of radon, which is highly significant, the effect of radon on the rate of initiation is found to be not significant. The model is also used to study the inverse dose-rate effect. This effect is evident for radon exposures typical for mines but is predicted to be attenuated, and for longer exposures even reversed, for the more protracted and lower radon exposures in homes. The model also predicts the drop in risk with time after exposure ceases. For residential exposures, lung cancer risks are compared with the estimates from the BEIR VI report. While the risk estimates are in agreement with those derived from residential studies, they are about two- to fourfold lower than those reported in the BEIR VI report.  相似文献   

5.
Radon is recognized as a public health concern for indoor exposure. Precise quantification derived from occupational exposure in miners is still needed for estimating the risk and the factors that modify the dependence on cumulated exposure. The present paper reports on relationship between radon exposure and lung cancer risk in French and Czech cohorts of uranium miners (n = 10,100). Miners from these two cohorts are characterized by low levels of exposure (average cumulated exposure of less than 60 WLM) protracted over a long period (mean duration of exposure of 10 years) and by a good quality of individual exposure estimates (95% of annual exposures based on radon measurements). The modifying effect of the quality of exposure on the risk is analyzed. A total of 574 lung cancer deaths were observed, which is 187% higher than expected from the national statistics. This significantly elevated risk is strongly associated with cumulated radon exposure. The estimated overall excess relative risk per WLM is 0.027 (95% CI: 0.017-0.043, related to measured exposures). For age at exposure of 30 and 20 years since exposure, the ERR/WLM is 0.042, and this value decreases by approximately 50% for each 10-year increase in age at exposure and time since exposure. The present study emphasizes that the quality of exposure estimates is an important factor that may substantially influence results. Time since exposure and simultaneously age at exposure were the most important effect modifiers. No inverse exposure-rate effect below 4 WL was observed. The results are consistent with estimates of the BEIR VI report using the concentration model at an exposure rate below 0.5 WL.  相似文献   

6.
This study assessed the relationship between radon decay product (RDP) exposure and mortality and cancer incidence in a cohort of 17,660 Eldorado uranium workers first employed in 1932-1980 and followed up through 1999. The analysis was based on substantially revised identifying information and dosimetry for workers from the Beaverlodge and Port Radium uranium mines and for the first time includes workers from a radium and uranium refinery and processing facility in Port Hope, Canada. Overall, male workers had lower mortality rates of all causes and all cancers and lower incidence rates of all cancers compared with the general Canadian male population, a likely healthy worker effect. Individual cancer rates were also reduced except for lung cancer mortality (SMR = 1.31, P < 0.001) and incidence (SIR = 1.23, P < 0.001). The excess relative risk per 100 WLM (ERR/100 WLM) of lung cancer mortality (N = 618, ERR/100 WLM = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.37, 0.78, P < 0.01) and incidence (N = 626, ERR/100 WLM = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.37, 0.81, P < 0.001) increased linearly with increasing RDP exposure. Adjustment for effect modification by time since exposure, exposure rate and age at risk resulted in comparable estimates of risk of lung cancer for all three uranium worksites. RDP exposures and γ-ray doses were not associated with any other cancer site or other cause of death. The risk estimates are in agreement with the results of the pooled analysis of 11 miner cohorts and more recent studies of uranium workers. The current analysis provides more precise risk estimates and compares the findings from the mortality study with the incidence study. Future follow-up of the cohort and joint analysis with other uranium miners' studies should shed more light on the effects of low RDP exposures as experienced by current workers as well as help to understand and address the health risks associated with residential radon.  相似文献   

7.
A two-mutation carcinogenesis model was used to calculate the expected lung cancer incidence caused by both smoking and exposure to radon in two populations, i.e. those of the Netherlands and Sweden. The model parameters were taken from a previous analysis of lung cancer in smokers and uranium miners and the model was applied to the two populations taking into account the smoking habits and exposure to radon. For both countries, the smoking histories and indoor radon exposure data for the period 1910-1995 were reconstructed and used in the calculations. Compared with the number of lung cancer cases observed in 1995 among both males and females in the two countries, the calculations show that between 72% and 94% of the registered lung cancer cases may be attributable to the combined effects of radon and smoking. In the Netherlands, a portion of about 4% and in Sweden, a portion of about 20% of the lung cancer cases (at ages 0-80 years) may be attributable to radon exposure, the numbers for males being slightly lower than for females. In the Netherlands, the proportions of lung cancers attributable to smoking are 91% for males and 71% for females; in Sweden, the figures are 70% and 56%, respectively. The risk from radon exposure is dependent on gender and cigarette smoking: the excess absolute risk for continuous exposure to 100 Bq m-3 ranges between 0.003 and 0.006 and compares well with current estimates, e.g. 0.0043 of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). The excess relative risk for continuous exposure to 100 Bq m-3 shows a larger variation, ranging generally between 0.1 for smokers and 1.0 for non-smokers. The results support the assumption that exposure to (indoor) radon, even at a level as low as background radiation, causes lung cancer proportional to the dose and is consistent with risk factors derived from the miners data.  相似文献   

8.

Background

Although exposure to UV radiation is the major risk factor for skin cancer, theoretical models suggest that radon exposure can contribute to risk, and this is supported by ecological studies. We sought to confirm or refute an association between long-term exposure to residential radon and the risk for malignant melanoma (MM) and non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) using a prospective cohort design and long-term residential radon exposure.

Methods

During 1993–1997, we recruited 57,053 Danish persons and collected baseline information. We traced and geocoded all residential addresses of the cohort members and calculated radon concentrations at each address lived in from 1 January 1971 until censor date. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate incidence rate-ratios (IRR) and confidence intervals (CI) for the risk associated with radon exposure for NMSC and MM, and effect modification was assessed.

Results

Over a mean follow-up of 13.6 years of 51,445 subjects, there were 3,243 cases of basal cell carcinoma (BCC), 317 cases of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and 329 cases of MM. The adjusted IRRs per 100 Bq/m3 increase in residential radon levels for BCC, SCC and MM were 1.14 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.27), 0.90 (95% CI: 0.70, 1.37) and 1.08 (95% CI: 0.77, 1.50), respectively. The association between radon exposure and BCC was stronger among those with higher socio-economic status and those living in apartments at enrollment.

Conclusion and Impact

Long-term residential radon exposure may contribute to development of basal cell carcinoma of the skin. We cannot exclude confounding from sunlight and cannot conclude on causality, as the relationship was stronger amongst persons living in apartments and non-existent amongst those living in single detached homes.  相似文献   

9.
Radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. Since the previous quantitative risk assessment of indoor radon conducted in France, input data have changed such as, estimates of indoor radon concentrations, lung cancer rates and the prevalence of tobacco consumption. The aim of this work was to update the risk assessment of lung cancer mortality attributable to indoor radon in France using recent risk models and data, improving the consideration of smoking, and providing results at a fine geographical scale. The data used were population data (2012), vital statistics on death from lung cancer (2008–2012), domestic radon exposure from a recent database that combines measurement results of indoor radon concentration and the geogenic radon potential map for France (2015), and smoking prevalence (2010). The risk model used was derived from a European epidemiological study, considering that lung cancer risk increased by 16% per 100 becquerels per cubic meter (Bq/m3) indoor radon concentration. The estimated number of lung cancer deaths attributable to indoor radon exposure is about 3000 (1000; 5000), which corresponds to about 10% of all lung cancer deaths each year in France. About 33% of lung cancer deaths attributable to radon are due to exposure levels above 100 Bq/m3. Considering the combined effect of tobacco and radon, the study shows that 75% of estimated radon-attributable lung cancer deaths occur among current smokers, 20% among ex-smokers and 5% among never-smokers. It is concluded that the results of this study, which are based on precise estimates of indoor radon concentrations at finest geographical scale, can serve as a basis for defining French policy against radon risk.  相似文献   

10.
The assessment of the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) for alpha-radiation was held in the cases of inhalation of radon progeny and incorporation of plutonium in lungs. It is based on simulation of lung cancer radiation risk for different types of radiation. Specific radiation risk models developed according to the results of direct epidemiological studies are used for the simulation. These include two published risk models for uranium miners and nuclear workers of the Mayak facilities in the former Soviet Union. Additionally two lung cancer risk models are developed and described for the following cases: population indoor radon exposure and low-linear-energy-transfer reference radiation exposure. By the results of lifetime lung cancer risk simulation the RBE values range from 11 to 12 and from 1.7 to 4.9 for the cases of plutonium incorporation and of radon progeny exposure accordingly. The significant uncertainty of radiation risk models results in significant variation of RBE assessments. Rough estimations of RBE values 90% confidence interval are from unit fraction to 25 and from 2 to 50 for the cases of radon progeny exposure and plutonium incorporation accordingly.  相似文献   

11.
The risks and dose conversion coefficients for residential and occupational exposures due to radon were determined with applying the epidemiological risk models to ICRP representative populations. The dose conversion coefficient for residential radon was estimated with a value of 1.6 mSv year?1 per 100 Bq m?3 (3.6 mSv per WLM), which is significantly lower than the corresponding value derived from the biokinetic and dosimetric models. The dose conversion coefficient for occupational exposures with applying the risk models for miners was estimated with a value of 14 mSv per WLM, which is in good accordance with the results of the dosimetric models. To resolve the discrepancy regarding residential radon, the ICRP approaches for the determination of risks and doses were reviewed. It could be shown that ICRP overestimates the risk for lung cancer caused by residential radon. This can be attributed to a wrong population weighting of the radon-induced risks in its epidemiological approach. With the approach in this work, the average risks for lung cancer were determined, taking into account the age-specific risk contributions of all individuals in the population. As a result, a lower risk coefficient for residential radon was obtained. The results from the ICRP biokinetic and dosimetric models for both, the occupationally exposed working age population and the whole population exposed to residential radon, can be brought in better accordance with the corresponding results of the epidemiological approach, if the respective relative radiation detriments and a radiation-weighting factor for alpha particles of about ten are used.  相似文献   

12.
Ecologic U.S. county data suggest negative associations between residential radon exposure and lung cancer mortality (LCM) that are inconsistent with clearly positive ones revealed by individual data on underground miners. If this inconsistency is due to competing effects of induced cell killing vs. mutations in alpha-radiation exposed bronchial epithelium, then linear extrapolation from miner data may overestimate typical residential radon risks. To investigate the plausibility of this hypothesis, a biologically based “cytodynamic 2-stage” (CD2) cancer-risk model was fit to combined 1950 to 1954 age-specific person-year data on white females of age 40+ y in 2821 U.S. counties (~90% never-smokers), and on five cohorts of underground miners who never smoked, conditional on a realistic rate of alpha-radiation-induced killing of human lung cells, and on linear-no-threshold dose-response relations for both processes assumed to affect cancer risk (alpha-induced mutations and cell killing). As summarized previously (Bogen, K.T., Hum. Exper. Toxicol. 17:691-6, 1998), a good CD2 fit was obtained that involved biologically plausible parameter values and (without further optimization) also predicted inverse dose-rate effects observed in the nonsmoking miners. The present paper reports mathematical details of the CD2 model used, as well as additional modeling results involving the same combined data set. The results obtained are consistent with the hypotheses that low-level radon exposure is nonlinearly related to LCM risk, and that current linear no-threshold extrapolation models overestimate LCM risk associated with relatively low residential radon concentrations (<~200?Bq m?3). Testing this hypothesis would require more extensive individual-level epidemiological data relating residential radon exposures to LCM than are currently available.  相似文献   

13.
Personal genome tests are now offered direct-to-consumer (DTC) via genetic variants identified by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for common diseases. Tests report risk estimates (age-specific and lifetime) for various diseases based on genotypes at multiple loci. However, uncertainty surrounding such risk estimates has not been systematically investigated. With breast cancer as an example, we examined the combined effect of uncertainties in population incidence rates, genotype frequency, effect sizes, and models of joint effects among genetic variants on lifetime risk estimates. We performed simulations to estimate lifetime breast cancer risk for carriers and noncarriers of genetic variants. We derived population-based cancer incidence rates from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program and comparative international data. We used data for non-Hispanic white women from 2003 to 2005. We derived genotype frequencies and effect sizes from published GWAS and meta-analyses. For a single genetic variant in FGFR2 gene (rs2981582), combination of uncertainty in these parameters produced risk estimates where upper and lower 95% simulation intervals differed by more than 3-fold. Difference in population incidence rates was the largest contributor to variation in risk estimates. For a panel of five genetic variants, estimated lifetime risk of developing breast cancer before age 80 for a woman that carried all risk variants ranged from 6.1% to 21%, depending on assumptions of additive or multiplicative joint effects and breast cancer incidence rates. Epidemiologic parameters involved in computation of disease risk have substantial uncertainty, and cumulative uncertainty should be properly recognized. Reliance on point estimates alone could be seriously misleading.  相似文献   

14.
A population-based case-control study on risk factors for childhood malignancies was used to investigate a previously reported association between elevated indoor radon concentrations and childhood cancer, with special regard to leukaemia. The patients were all children suffering from leukaemia and common solid tumours (nephroblastoma, neuroblastoma, rhabdomyosarcoma, central nervous system (CNS) tumours) diagnosed between July 1988 and June 1993 in Lower Saxony (Germany) and aged less than 15 years. Two population-based control groups were matched by age and gender to the leukaemia patients. Long-term (1 year) radon measurements were performed in those homes where the children had been living for at least 1 year, with particular attention being paid to those rooms where they had stayed most of the time. Due to the sequential study design, radon measurements in these rooms could only be done for 36% (82 leukaemias, 82 solid tumours and 209 controls) of the 1038 families initially contacted. Overall mean indoor radon concentrations (27 Bq m–3) were low compared with the measured levels in other studies. Using a prespecified cutpoint of 70 Bq m–3, no association with indoor radon concentrations was seen for the leukaemias (odds ratio (OR): 1.30; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.32–5.33); however, the risk estimates were elevated for the solid tumours (OR: 2.61; 95% CI: 0.96–7.13), mainly based on 6 CNS tumours. We did not find any evidence for an association between indoor radon and childhood leukaemia, which is in line with a recently published American case-control study. There is little support for an association with CNS tumours in the literature. Received: 14 December 1998 / Accepted in revised form: 10 June 1999  相似文献   

15.
In this study we analyzed the relationships and patterns of spatial variation from morphological cranial variability of 17 population samples representing the ancient inhabitants of the central territory of Argentina (archaeologically known as "Sierras Centrales") and other pre-Hispanic populations from different ecological and geographic regions of the Southern Cone of South America (Argentina and Uruguay), based on the analysis of 10 craniofacial measurements. Results obtained from D2 distances can be interpreted as evidence of a similar biological history for the populations that inhabited the Sierras Centrales and the population of Santiago del Estero. Matrix correlation analysis demonstrated that craniometric variation is significantly influenced by geography, suggesting that populations that lived at lower geographical distance share more biological similarity. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis suggests a clinal pattern for the biological variation, although Moran's I estimates calculated for each variable demonstrate that only nasal height and breadth show this spatial pattern of variation. Results from spatial regression techniques show a significant effect of altitude modeling nasal shape, in agreement with previous studies suggesting that nasal morphology is strongly influenced by environment variables.  相似文献   

16.
Molecular estimates of the age of angiosperms have varied widely, and many greatly predate the Early Cretaceous appearance of angiosperms in the fossil record, but there have been few attempts to assess confidence limits on ages. Experiments with rbcL and 18S data using maximum likelihood suggest that previous angiosperm age estimates were too old because they assumed equal rates across sites-use of a gamma distribution of rates to correct for site-to-site variation gives 10-30 my (million years) younger ages-and relied on herbaceous angiosperm taxa with high rates of molecular evolution. Ages based on first and second codon positions of rbcL are markedly older than those based on third positions, which conflict with the fossil record in being too young, but all examined data partitions of rbcL and 18S depart substantially from a molecular clock. Age estimates are surprisingly insensitive to different views on seed-plant relationships. Randomization schemes were used to quantify confidence intervals due to phylogenetic uncertainty, substitutional noise, and lineage effects (deviations from a molecular clock). Estimates of the age of crown-group angiosperms range from 68 to 281 mya (million years ago), depending on data, tree, and assumptions, with most ~140-190 mya (Early Jurassic-earliest Cretaceous). Approximate 95% confidence intervals on ages are wider for rbcL than 18S, ranging up to 160 my for phylogenetic uncertainty, 90 my for substitutional noise, and 70 my for lineage effects. These intervals overlap the oldest occurrences of angiosperms in the fossil record, as well as some estimates from previous molecular studies.  相似文献   

17.
Quantitative risk assessments in public health settings intend to describe the hazard of a specific exposure in a given population on the basis of epidemiological and/or experimental results. Two different risk quantities, the absolute lifetime excess risk and the loss-of-lifetime, which differ in their definition of hazard, are discussed and compared. For both measures estimation procedures are derived and the relationship between the various estimates which are currently in use are investigated. It is shown that the two most common estimators can be written as special cases of a more general concept. This leads to conclusions about the assumptions on which different estimation procedures are implicitly based. For all discussed estimators variance estimates are derived. The analytical results for both risk parameters will be elucidated by an example on lung cancer risk due to residential radon in Germany.  相似文献   

18.
Radon is a ubiquitous natural carcinogen derived from the three primordial radionuclides of the uranium series (238U and 235U) and thorium series (232Th). In general, it is present at very low concentrations in the outdoor or indoor environment, but a number of scenarios can give rise to significant radiological exposures. Historically, these scenarios were not recognised, and took many centuries to understand the links between the complex behaviour of radon and progeny decay and health risks such as lung cancer. However, in concert with the rapid evolution in the related sciences of nuclear physics and radiological health in the first half of the twentieth century, a more comprehensive understanding of the links between radon, its progeny and health impacts such as lung cancer has evolved. It is clear from uranium miner studies that acute occupational exposures lead to significant increases in cancer risk, but chronic or sub-chronic exposures, such as indoor residential settings, while suggestive of health risks, still entails various uncertainties. At present, prominent groups such as the BEIR or UNSCEAR committees argue that the ‘linear no threshold’ (LNT) model is the most appropriate model for radiation exposure management, based on their detailed review and analysis of uranium miner, residential, cellular or molecular studies. The LNT model implies that any additional or excess exposure to radon and progeny increases overall risks such as lung cancer. A variety of engineering approaches are available to address radon exposure problems. Where high radon scenarios are encountered, such as uranium mining, the most cost effective approach is well-engineered ventilation systems. For residential radon problems, various options can be assessed, including building design and passive or active ventilation systems. This paper presents a very broad but thorough review of radon sources, its behaviour (especially the importance of its radioactive decay progeny), common mining and non-mining scenarios which can give rise to significant radon and progeny exposures, followed by a review of associated health impacts, culminating in typical engineering approaches to reduce exposures and rehabilitate wastes.  相似文献   

19.
In order to evaluate the effect of indoor exposure to radon and thoron on the development of lung cancer in the population of two towns of Sverdlovsk Region, epidemiologic studies were conducted using a multifactarial method of analysis. Both towns, Pervouralsk and Karpinsk, are located within the geological area with the gamma-radiation exposure dose ranging from 5 to 12 mu r/hr, and are characterized by an increased cancer incidence rate--323.1 and 364.6 cases per 100,000 of population, respectively. The mean values of the voluminous indoor activity (VA) of radon in Pervouralsk and Karpinsk were 23 and 75 Bq/m3 (with maximal indices of radon VA being 395 and 739 Bq/m3), equivalent equilibrium concentrations (EEC) of residential radon and thoron were 0.6 and 2.5 Bq/m3 (maximal indices of EEC of thoron being 5 and 13 Bq/m3), respectively. The results of multifactorial analysis of 22 different lung cancer risk factors carried out using the pattern recognition method proved that the contribution of thoron and radon in the development of lung cancer in the population of Pervouralsk and Karpinsk was not significant--0.5 and 0.6%, respectively. The calculations performed in a monofactorial model of risk evaluation BEIR VI gave different results--11-16% and 35-52% for the towns of Pervouralsk and Karpinsk, respectively. The discussion of the results provides arguments for the reliability and adequacy of the application of multifactorial method of radiation risk evaluation as compared to the traditionally applied monofactorial method.  相似文献   

20.
Pennello GA  Devesa SS  Gail MH 《Biometrics》1999,55(3):774-781
Commonly used methods for depicting geographic variation in cancer rates are based on rankings. They identify where the rates are high and low but do not indicate the magnitude of the rates nor their variability. Yet such measures of variability may be useful in suggesting which types of cancer warrant further analytic studies of localized risk factors. We consider a mixed effects model in which the logarithm of the mean Poisson rate is additive in fixed stratum effects (e.g., age effects) and in logarithms of random relative risk effects associated with geographic areas. These random effects are assumed to follow a gamma distribution with unit mean and variance 1/alpha, similar to Clayton and Kaldor (1987, Biometrics 43, 671-681). We present maximum likelihood and method-of-moments estimates with standard errors for inference on alpha -1/2, the relative risk standard deviation (RRSD). The moment estimates rely on only the first two moments of the Poisson and gamma distributions but have larger standard errors than the maximum likelihood estimates. We compare these estimates with other measures of variability. Several examples suggest that the RRSD estimates have advantages compared to other measures of variability.  相似文献   

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