大兴安岭林区10小时时滞可燃物湿度的模拟

随着森林防火预报精细化的需求,小时尺度可燃物湿度的准确模拟成为火险预报的关键。利用2010年8月连续无降雨天气条件下我国大兴安岭林区10h时滞可燃物湿度和相应气象因子的半小时动态观测资料,从可燃物的失水和吸水过程对目前广泛使用的Fosberg模型和Van Wagner模型进行评估,进而发展了准确模拟10h时滞可燃物失水和吸水过程的可燃物湿度模型。结果表明:Fosberg模型对10h时滞可燃物的失水过程模拟较好(R²=0.96,P<0.01),而Van Wagner模型对10h时滞可燃物的吸水过程模拟较好(R²=0.83,P<0.01),但均不能独立地准确模拟10h时滞可燃物的湿度变化。通过分析可燃物失水与吸水过程,考虑可燃物在静风条件下的水汽交换,优化了Van Wagner模型参数,建立了综合反映可燃物失水与吸水过程的10h时滞可燃物湿度模型。据比较,该模型可准确地模拟10h时滞可燃物的湿度变化(R²=0.88,P<0.01),可为精细化火险预报提供技术支撑。     

Heat budget and fire behaviour associated with the opening of serotinous cones in two Pinus species

Abstract. We have constructed a heat budget for the transient heating of cones showing that there is a logarithmic relationship between the time (sec) to serotinous cone opening, releasing viable seeds, or cone ignition and temperature (°K) in the convective column above a fire. The rate of opening at a given temperature is controlled by a thermal time constant which is the ratio of the thermal resistance of a cone to convection, to the heating capacity of a cone by conduction. The observed times to cone opening and ignition fit the logarithmic relationship as predicted by the heat budget model. In order to understand the fire behaviour that results in cone opening and ignition, we changed the variables of temperature and time to the fire behaviour variables of fire intensity (kW/m) and fire rate of spread (m/min). Cones borne high in the canopy open in fires with low rates of spread and high fuel consumption, where intensity = rate of spread × fuel consumption × heat of ignition, but not when the rate of spread is high and fuel consumption low.     

Stratigraphic context and direct dating of the Neandertal mandible from Cova del Gegant (Sitges, Barcelona)

Stratigraphic study of the Cova del Gegant’s sedimentary fill revealed different cycles of accumulation of typical interior cave and delta facies. A precise chronology for these deposits, the faunal remains and stone tools contained therein was obtained by radiocarbon, U-Th and OSL. Our results indicate that the Upper Pleistocene archaeological sequence dates between 49.3 ± 1.8 ka BP, the U-Th age of the overlying flowstone, and 60.0 ± 3.9 ka BP, the OSL age of the basal deposits. We have also directly dated the site’s Neandertal mandible to 52.3 ± 2.3 ka by U-Th.     

Spatial patterns and drivers of fire occurrence and its future trend under climate change in a boreal forest of Northeast China

Understanding the spatial patterns of fire occurrence and its response to climate change is vital to fire risk mitigation and vegetation management. Focusing on boreal forests in Northeast China, we used spatial point pattern analysis to model fire occurrence reported from 1965 to 2009. Our objectives were to quantitate the relative importance of biotic, abiotic, and human influences on patterns of fire occurrence and to map the spatial distribution of fire occurrence density (number of fires occurring over a given area and time period) under current and future climate conditions. Our results showed human‐caused fires were strongly related to human activities (e.g. landscape accessibility), including proximity to settlements and roads. In contrast, fuel moisture and vegetation type were the most important controlling factors on the spatial pattern of lightning fires. Both current and future projected spatial distributions of the overall (human‐ + lightning‐caused) fire occurrence density were strongly clustered along linear components of human infrastructure. Our results demonstrated that the predicted change in overall fire occurrence density is positively related to the degree of temperature and precipitation change, although the spatial pattern of change is expected to vary spatially according to proximity to human ignition sources, and in a manner inconsistent with predicted climate change. Compared to the current overall fire occurrence density (median value: 0.36 fires per 1000 km² per year), the overall fire occurrence density is projected to increase by 30% under the CGCM3 B1 scenario and by 230% under HadCM3 A2 scenario in 2081–2100, respectively. Our results suggest that climate change effects may not outweigh the effects of human influence on overall fire occurrence over the next century in this cultural landscape. Accurate forecasts of future fire‐climate relationships should account for anthropogenic influences on fire ignition density, such as roads and proximity to settlements.     

Abandonment chronology of glacial Lake Agassiz's Northwestern outlet

Spillway scour lakes and basins in northwestern Saskatchewan were cored to determine when the spillways were abandoned. The cores contained the target contact of organic muck (gyttja) overlying inorganic sand or silty-clay rhythmites. New AMS radiocarbon dates on terrestrial macrofossils, in conjunction with previously published and unpublished data from the area, indicate that the spillways were abandoned between 9.07 and 9.59 ¹⁴C kyr BP (10,220-10,810 cal yr BP). Of great interest is whether the channels are associated with northwestern drainage from glacial Lake Agassiz. The radiocarbon ages recording spillway abandonment are consistent with previous work, which claims that overflow through the northwestern outlet ended ∼ 9.5 ¹⁴C kyr BP (10,700 cal yr BP); this is consistent with shifting drainage to the southern outlet at this time. The scarcity of dates from the northwestern outlets and other outlets of Lake Agassiz underscores the need to establish a tighter chronological control on outlet switching before outburst flooding from Lake Agassiz can be assumed to be the trigger for abrupt climate change.     

Negative fire feedback in a transitional forest of southeastern Amazonia

Anthropogenic understory fires affect large areas of tropical forest, particularly during severe droughts. Yet, the mechanisms that control tropical forests' susceptibility to fire remain ambiguous. We tested the widely accepted hypothesis that Amazon forest fires increase susceptibility to further burning by conducting a 150 ha fire experiment in a closed-canopy forest near the southeastern Amazon forest–savanna boundary. Forest flammability and its possible determinants were measured in adjacent 50 ha forest plots that were burned annually for 3 consecutive years (B3), once (B1), and not at all (B0). Contrary to expectation, an annual burning regime led to a decline in forest flammability during the third burn. Microclimate conditions were more favorable compared with the first burn (i.e. vapor pressure deficit increased and litter moisture decreased), yet flame heights declined and burned area halved. A slight decline in fine fuels after the second burn appears to have limited fire spread and intensity. Supporting this conclusion, fire spread rates doubled and burned area increased fivefold in B3 subplots that received fine fuel additions. Slow replacement of surface fine fuels in this forest may be explained by (i) low leaf litter production (4.3 Mg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹), half that of other Amazon forests; and (ii) low fire-induced tree and liana mortality (5.5±0.5% yr⁻¹, SE, in B3), the lowest measured in closed-canopy Amazonian forests. In this transitional forest, where severe seasonal drought removed moisture constraints on fire propagation, a lack of fine fuels inhibited the intensity and spread of recurrent fire in a negative feedback. This reduction in flammability, however, may be short-lived if delayed tree mortality or treefall increases surface fuels in future years. This study highlights that understanding fuel input rate and timing relative to fire frequency is fundamental to predicting transitional forest flammability – which has important implications for carbon emissions and potential replacement by scrub vegetation.     

Ageing culturally significant relic trees in southeast Queensland to support bushfire management strategies

Appropriate fire management strategies are needed to protect forests and large old ecologically and culturally significant trees in natural landscapes. The aim of this study was to determine the age of large old and relic trees of cultural significance that included Cypress Pine (Callitris columellaris F. Muell.), a species that is sensitive to crown scorching fires in a fire‐prone landscape, and to calibrate a tree‐growth‐rate method for estimating tree age. Twelve large trees were dated using radiocarbon (¹⁴C) dating. The trees are located on North Stradbroke Island (Indigenous name: Minjerribah), southeast Queensland (Australia) in a fire‐prone landscape where recent wildfires have destroyed many large trees. The median tree ages ranged from 155 to 369 years. These results suggest an important role of past Indigenous land management practices in protecting Cypress Pine from crown scorching fires. The tree‐growth‐rate‐based method for estimating tree age generally overestimated the age derived from radiocarbon dating. Bias correction factors were developed for correcting various measures of periodic growth rates. This study provides evidence that appropriate low‐intensity fire strategies have the potential to contribute to the survival of forests and conserve large old trees.     

Nouvelles données paléoenvironnementales dans le Sud de la France vers 30000 ans 14C BP : le cas de la grotte Marie (Hérault)

The Marie cave, discovered to the north of Montpellier, Hérault (France), has yielded a fauna of 28 vertebrates, out of which 23 are small to large mammals, notably Mammuthus primigenius. The few discovered artefacts have been attributed to the Upper Palaeolithic, which is in agreement with the two radiocarbon dates (31450 ¹⁴C yr BP for the low level, and 28680 ¹⁴C yr BP near the cave's entrance). The palynological study shows the existence (i) of a wooded steppe on the plateau, and (ii) of a riverine forest with alders in the valleys, associated with Mediterranean taxa. These data confirm the presence in Languedoc of Mediterranean species around 30000 yr BP, which qualifies the hypothesis of exclusively Spanish and Italian refuges during glacial periods.     

Τesting models for the beginnings of the Aurignacian and the advent of figurative art and music: the radiocarbon chronology of Geißenklösterle

The German site of Geißenklösterle is crucial to debates concerning the European Middle to Upper Palaeolithic transition and the origins of the Aurignacian in Europe. Previous dates from the site are central to an important hypothesis, the Kulturpumpe model, which posits that the Swabian Jura was an area where crucial behavioural developments took place and then spread to other parts of Europe. The previous chronology (critical to the model), is based mainly on radiocarbon dating, but remains poorly constrained due to the dating resolution and the variability of dates. The cause of these problems is disputed, but two principal explanations have been proposed: a) larger than expected variations in the production of atmospheric radiocarbon, and b) taphonomic influences in the site mixing the bones that were dated into different parts of the site. We reinvestigate the chronology using a new series of radiocarbon determinations obtained from the Mousterian, Aurignacian and Gravettian levels. The results strongly imply that the previous dates were affected by insufficient decontamination of the bone collagen prior to dating. Using an ultrafiltration protocol the chronometric picture becomes much clearer. Comparison of the results against other recently dated sites in other parts of Europe suggests the Early Aurignacian levels are earlier than other sites in the south of France and Italy, but not as early as recently dated sites which suggest a pre-Aurignacian dispersal of modern humans to Italy by ∼45000 cal BP. They are consistent with the importance of the Danube Corridor as a key route for the movement of people and ideas. The new dates fail to refute the Kulturpumpe model and suggest that Swabian Jura is a region that contributed significantly to the evolution of symbolic behaviour as indicated by early evidence for figurative art, music and mythical imagery.     

Late Pleistocene and Holocene whale remains (Cetacea) from Denmark and adjacent countries: Species,distribution, chronology,and trace element concentrations

We describe and review the subfossil whale bones (mammalian order Cetacea) material from the southern Scandinavian area, that is, Skagerrak, Kattegat, the inner Danish waters and the southwestern Baltic Sea. Fifteen species were identified from the subfossil records of which all, except for the bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus), have also been encountered in the modern times. Fifty-one specimens were radiocarbon dated covering 12 of the subfossil species. The dates fell in three distinct clusters with a few specimens before the last glacial maximum (LGM), a large group between LGM and the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary (ca. 17.0–11.7 cal. kyr BP), and another large group from ca. 8.0 cal. kyr BP onward. Seventeen of the radiocarbon dated specimens have been subjected to trace element analysis by Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis. Cross plots of the concentrations of Fe and Zn, and Fe and Co show that it is possible to distinguish crayfish eaters from fish/squid eaters. This can be used as a novel and independent method for the determination to species of whale remains of otherwise uncertain speciation.     

Études du Paléolithique du Japon à partir des téphras

Many studies and discussions have been made on the problem of when the earliest human beings appeared in Japan. In general, hominid fossils in the latest Pleistocene are not preserved except for coralline limestone sequence in Ryukyu islands, but earlier Paleolithic tools were excavated from volcanic ash soil with a ¹⁴C age of about 30,000–35,000 yr. BP or younger at several archeological sites in almost all Japan. Recent studies, however, show a need for revision and refinement of these ages because calibration techniques have progressed from conventional to calendar ages and high-resolution oxygen isotope chronology has given a global standard sequence. Aïra-Tn tephra (AT), the most important time-marker of the Paleolithic age in Japan, was formerly dated at 21,000–22,000 yr ¹⁴C BP by conventional radiocarbon methods but was dated again at ca. 24,500 yr ¹⁴C BP by accelerated mass spectrometry radiocarbon methods. However, it has been further calibrated to a high-resolution calendar age of 30,000 cal yr. by varve chronology of lake sediments of Suigetsu of central Japan, well matched with combined date between oxygen isotope dates based and calibration from AMS radiocarbon dates. As the earliest Paleolithic tools in south Kanto are found in volcanic ash soil significantly below AT ash and above Sambe-Ikeda ash (SI, ca.46 ka), just above the oxygen isotopic stage 3.3, they are estimated to be dated slightly older than 40 ka. Palaeo-environment at that time is estimated mild to cool climate and relatively low sea level after the oxygen isotope stage 3.3. Sill land bridges between Japan islands and continents have not been formed at major straits. We have not yet obtained useful data for calibration older than ca. 45 ka. Also, correlation of oxygen isotopic fluctuation with the terrestrial sequences is incomplete in Stage 3.     

Did tree‐Betula,Pinus and Picea survive the last glaciation along the west coast of Norway? A review of the evidence,in light of Kullman (2002)

Aim We discuss the hypotheses proposed by Kullman [Geo‐Öko 21 (2000) 141; Nordic Journal of Botany 21 (2001) 39; Journal of Biogeography 29 (2002) 1117] on the basis of radiocarbon‐dated megafossils of late‐glacial age from the central Swedish mountains that boreal trees survived the glaciation along the south‐west coast of Norway and subsequently migrated eastward early in the late‐glacial to early deglaciated parts of the central Swedish Scandes mountains. Methods We assess these hypotheses on the basis of glacial geological evidence and four lines of palaeoecological evidence, namely macrofossil records of the tree species, vegetation and climate reconstructions from plant evidence, independent climate reconstructions from other proxies for the late‐glacial environment of south‐west Norway, and the patterns of post‐glacial spread of the tree species. Location South and west Norway, central Swedish Scandes mountains (Jämtland). Results and conclusions South‐west Norway and the adjacent continental shelf were under ice at the last‐glacial maximum (LGM). The late‐glacial vegetation of south‐west Norway was treeless and summer temperatures were below the thermal limits for Betula pubescens Ehrh., Pinus sylvestris L. and Picea abies (L.) Karst. Instead of spreading immediately after the onset of Holocene warming, as might have been expected if local populations were surviving, B. pubescens showed a lag of local arrival of 600 to > 1000 years, Pinus lagged by 1500 to > 2000 years, and Picea only reached southern Norway c. 1500 years ago and has not colonized most of south‐west Norway west of the watershed. Glacial geological evidence shows the presence of an ice sheet in the Scandes at the LGM and in the Younger Dryas, which was cold‐based near or at the area where the late‐glacial‐dated megafossils were recovered by Kullman. We conclude that the samples dated by Kullman (2002) should be evaluated carefully for possible sources of contamination. All the available evidence shows that the biogeographical hypotheses, based on these radiocarbon dates taken at face value, of late‐glacial tree survival at the Norwegian coast and subsequent eastwards spread to the mountains, are unsupportable.     

A critical review of the German Paleolithic hominin record

We review the hominin fossil record from western Central Europe in light of the recent major revisions of the geochronological context. The mandible from Mauer (Homo heidelbergensis), dated to circa 500,000 years ago, continues to represent the earliest German hominin and may coincide with the occupation of Europe north of the high alpine mountain chains. Only limited new evidence is available for the Middle Pleistocene, mostly in the form of skull fragments, a pattern that may relate to taphonomic processes. These finds and their ages suggest the gradual evolution of a suite of Neandertal features during this period. Despite new finds of classic Neandertals, there is no clear proof for Neandertal burial from Germany. Alternatively, cut marks on a skull fragment from the Neandertal type site suggest special treatment of that individual. New Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon dates of previous finds leave little reliably dated evidence for anatomically modern humans (AMH) in Europe before 30,000 BP; the remains from Hahn?fersand, Binshof-Speyer, Paderborn-Sande, and Vogelherd are now of Holocene age. Thus, a correlation of AMH with the Aurignacian remains to be proven, and the general idea of a long coexistence of Neandertals and AMH in Europe may be questioned. In western Central Europe, evidence of Gravettian human fossils is also very limited, although a new double grave from lower Austria may be relevant. The only dated burial from the German Upper Paleolithic (from Mittlere Klause) falls into a time period (circa 18,600 BP) represented by only a few occupation sites in western Central Europe. A number of human remains at Magdalenian sites appear to result from variable (secondary) burial practices. In contrast, the Final Paleolithic (circa 12,000-9600 cal. BC) yields an increase of hominin finds, including multiple burials (Bonn-Oberkassel, Neuwied-Irlich), similar to the situation in western and southern Europe.     

Controls on carbon consumption during Alaskan wildland fires

A method was developed to estimate carbon consumed during wildland fires in interior Alaska based on medium‐spatial scale data (60 m cell size) generated on a daily basis. Carbon consumption estimates were developed for 41 fire events in the large fire year of 2004 and 34 fire events from the small fire years of 2006–2008. Total carbon consumed during the large fire year (2.72 × 10⁶ ha burned) was 64.7 Tg C, and the average carbon consumption during the small fire years (0.09 × 10⁶ ha burned) was 1.3 Tg C. Uncertainties for the annual carbon emissions ranged from 13% to 21%. Carbon consumed from burning of black spruce forests represented 76% of the total during large fire years and 57% during small fire years. This was the result of the widespread distribution of black spruce forests across the landscape and the deep burning of the surface organic layers common to these ecosystems. Average carbon consumed was 3.01 kg m^?2 during the large fire year and 1.69 kg m^?2 during the small fire years. Most of the carbon consumption was from burning of ground layer fuels (85% in the large fire year and 78% in small fire years). Most of the difference in average carbon consumption between large and small fire years was in the consumption of ground layer fuels (2.60 vs. 1.31 kg m^?2 during large and small fire years, respectively). There was great variation in average fuel consumption between individual fire events (0.56–5.06 kg m^?2) controlled by variations in fuel types and topography, timing of the fires during the fire season, and variations in fuel moisture at the time of burning.     

Stand Age Influence on Potential Wildfire Ignition and Spread in the Boreal Forest of Northeastern Canada

Although it has long been assumed that wildfire occurrence is independent of stand age in the North American boreal forest, recent studies indicate that young forests may influence burn rates by limiting the ignition and spread of fires for several years. Wildfires not only structure the stand-age mosaic of boreal landscapes, but also alter the likelihood and behavior of subsequent fires. Using a fire simulation model, we evaluated the effect of stand age on the magnitude and spatial patterns of burn probability (BP) in the boreal forest of northeastern Canada. Specifically, we assessed the stand age effect on the two processes driving fire likelihood, ignition and spread, by simulating tens of thousands of fires under three fire regime scenarios that vary in terms of mean fire size and number of burned patches. Assuming minimal resistance to fire ignition and spread, where only the youngest stands (≤ 10 years) are resistant to burning, mean BP is reduced by 10%; in contrast, assuming maximum resistance, where stands up to 90 years old impede wildfires, mean BP can be reduced up to 85%. Although the resistance to ignition on BP is almost identical in magnitude to that of spread, it yields substantially different spatial arrangements of BP. Furthermore, stand age resistance reduces subsequent fire activity not only within but also outside the perimeter of burned patches through a shadow effect. Our results help to untangle the role of factors contributing to stand age resistance on wildfires and offer new insights for improving the spatial mapping of fire likelihood.     

Frequency and impact of Holocene fire in eastern South Island, New Zealand

Our evaluation of pre-settlement Holocene (10 000–1000 BP) fire, using radiocarbon-dated charcoals and pollen and charcoal spectra in pollen diagrams, concludes that fires were infrequent and patchy in the eastern South Island of New Zealand. Charcoal radiocarbon dates point to three broad phases of fire frequency: infrequent patchy fires from 10 000 to 2600 BP; a slightly increased frequency between 2600 and 1000 BP; and an unprecedented increase of fires after 1000 BP, which peaked between 800 and 500 BP. We suggest that natural fire was driven more by vegetation flammability (with ignitibility and combustibility components) than climate within this rain-shadow region, that plant chemistry principally determined fire frequency, and that topography determined the extent of fire. The review suggests that there were rare spatial and temporal instances of a feedback relationship between fire and early-successional grasses in eastern South Island. This occurred only within narrow-range, cool environments, whose equilibrium communities were of flammable, phenolic-rich woody species and grasses, and was predominantly in the late pre-settlement period. Elsewhere, grasses and herbs were understorey components to otherwise low-flammability, hardwood forest and scrub.     

New Hydroxyproline Radiocarbon Dates from Sungir,Russia, Confirm Early Mid Upper Palaeolithic Burials in Eurasia

Sungir (Russia) is a key Mid-Upper Palaeolithic site in Eurasia, containing several spectacular burials that disclose early evidence for complex burial rites in the form of a range of grave goods deposited along with the dead. Dating has been particularly challenging, with multiple radiocarbon dates ranging from 19,160±270 to 28,800±240 BP for burials that are believed to be closely similar in age. There are disparities in the radiocarbon dates of human bones, faunal remains and charcoal found on the floor of burials [1], [2], [3]. Our approach has been to develop compound-specific methods using High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) to separate single amino acids, such as hydroxyproline, and thereby avoid the known human contamination on the bones themselves. Previously, we applied this technique to obtain radiocarbon dates of ∼30,000 BP for Sungir 2, Sungir 3 and a mammoth bone from the occupation levels of the site [4]. The single amino acid radiocarbon dates were in good agreement with each other compared to all the dates previously reported, supporting their reliability. Here we report new hydroxyproline dates for two more human burials from the same site, Sungir 1 and Sungir 4. All five hydroxyproline dates reported are statistically indistinguishable and support an identical age for the group. The results suggest that compound-specific radiocarbon analysis should be considered seriously as the method of choice when precious archaeological remains are to be dated because they give a demonstrably contaminant-free radiocarbon age. The new ages are, together with the previously dated ‘Red Lady of Paviland’ human in the British Isles, the earliest for Mid Upper Palaeolithic burial behaviour in Eurasia, and point to the precocious appearance of this form of rite in Europe Russia.     

Fire,Fuel Composition and Resilience Threshold in Subalpine Ecosystem

Background

Forecasting the effects of global changes on high altitude ecosystems requires an understanding of the long-term relationships between biota and forcing factors to identify resilience thresholds. Fire is a crucial forcing factor: both fuel build-up from land-abandonment in European mountains, and more droughts linked to global warming are likely to increase fire risks.

Methods

To assess the vegetation response to fire on a millennium time-scale, we analyzed evidence of stand-to-local vegetation dynamics derived from sedimentary plant macroremains from two subalpine lakes. Paleobotanical reconstructions at high temporal resolution, together with a fire frequency reconstruction inferred from sedimentary charcoal, were analyzed by Superposed Epoch Analysis to model plant behavior before, during and after fire events.

Principal Findings

We show that fuel build-up from arolla pine (Pinus cembra) always precedes fires, which is immediately followed by a rapid increase of birch (Betula sp.), then by ericaceous species after 25–75 years, and by herbs after 50–100 years. European larch (Larix decidua), which is the natural co-dominant species of subalpine forests with Pinus cembra, is not sensitive to fire, while the abundance of Pinus cembra is altered within a 150-year period after fires. A long-term trend in vegetation dynamics is apparent, wherein species that abound later in succession are the functional drivers, loading the environment with fuel for fires. This system can only be functional if fires are mainly driven by external factors (e.g. climate), with the mean interval between fires being longer than the minimum time required to reach the late successional stage, here 150 years.

Conclusion

Current global warming conditions which increase drought occurrences, combined with the abandonment of land in European mountain areas, creates ideal ecological conditions for the ignition and the spread of fire. A fire return interval of less than 150 years would threaten the dominant species and might override the resilience of subalpine forests.