Implications of CO2 fertilization for future climate change in a coupled climate–carbon model

The terrestrial carbon cycle plays a critical role in determining levels of atmospheric CO₂ that result from anthropogenic carbon emissions. Elevated atmospheric CO₂ is thought to stimulate terrestrial carbon uptake, through the process of CO₂ fertilization of vegetation productivity. This negative carbon cycle feedback results in reduced atmospheric CO₂ growth, and has likely accounted for a substantial portion of the historical terrestrial carbon sink. However, the future strength of CO₂ fertilization in response to continued carbon emissions and atmospheric CO₂ rise is highly uncertain. In this paper, the ramifications of CO₂ fertilization in simulations of future climate change are explored, using an intermediate complexity coupled climate–carbon model. It is shown that the absence of future CO₂ fertilization results in substantially higher future CO₂ levels in the atmosphere, as this removes the dominant contributor to future terrestrial carbon uptake in the model. As a result, climate changes are larger, though the radiative effect of higher CO₂ on surface temperatures in the model is offset by about 30% due to reduced positive dynamic vegetation feedbacks; that is, the removal of CO₂ fertilization results in less vegetation expansion in the model, which would otherwise constitute an important positive surface albedo‐temperature feedback. However, the effect of larger climate changes has other important implications for the carbon cycle – notably to further weaken remaining carbon sinks in the model. As a result, positive climate–carbon cycle feedbacks are larger when CO₂ fertilization is absent. This creates an interesting synergism of terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks, whereby positive (climate–carbon cycle) feedbacks are amplified when a negative (CO₂ fertilization) feedback is removed.     

Increases in the flux of carbon belowground stimulate nitrogen uptake and sustain the long-term enhancement of forest productivity under elevated CO₂

The earth's future climate state is highly dependent upon changes in terrestrial C storage in response to rising concentrations of atmospheric CO?. Here we show that consistently enhanced rates of net primary production (NPP) are sustained by a C-cascade through the root-microbe-soil system; increases in the flux of C belowground under elevated CO? stimulated microbial activity, accelerated the rate of soil organic matter decomposition and stimulated tree uptake of N bound to this SOM. This process set into motion a positive feedback maintaining greater C gain under elevated CO? as a result of increases in canopy N content and higher photosynthetic N-use efficiency. The ecosystem-level consequence of the enhanced requirement for N and the exchange of plant C for N belowground is the dominance of C storage in tree biomass but the preclusion of a large C sink in the soil.     

Twentieth century increase of Scots pine radial growth in NE Spain shows strong climate interactions

Stem radial growth responds to environmental conditions, and has been widely used as a proxy to study long‐term patterns of tree growth and to assess the impact of environmental changes on growth patterns. In this study, we use a tree ring dataset from the Catalan Ecological and Forest Inventory to study the temporal variability of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stem growth during the 20th century across a relatively large region (Catalonia, NE Spain) close to the southern limit of the distribution of the species. Basal area increment (BAI) was modelled as a function of tree size and environmental variables by means of mixed effects models. Our results showed an overall increase of 84% in Scots pine BAI during the 20th century, consistent with most previous studies for temperate forests. This trend was associated with increased atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and, possibly, with a general increase in nutrient availability, and we interpreted it as a fertilization effect. Over the same time period, there was also a marked increase in temperature across the study region (0.19 °C per decade on average). This warming had a negative impact on radial growth, particularly at the drier sites, but its magnitude was not enough to counteract the fertilization effect. In fact, the substantial warming observed during the 20th century in the study area did not result in a clear pattern of increased summer drought stress because of the large variability in precipitation, which did not show any clear time trend. But the situation may change in the future if temperatures continue to rise and/or precipitation becomes scarcer. Such a change could potentially reverse the temporal trend in growth, particularly at the driest sites, and is suggested in our data by the relative constancy of radial growth after ca. 1975, coinciding with the warmer period. If this situation is representative of other relatively dry, temperate forests, the implications for the regional carbon balance would be substantial.     

CO2 fertilization in temperate FACE experiments not representative of boreal and tropical forests

Results from free-air CO₂ enrichment (FACE) experiments in temperate climates indicate that the response of forest net primary productivity (NPP) to elevated CO₂ might be highly conserved across a broad range of productivities. In this study, we show that the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model reproduces the magnitude of the NPP enhancement at temperate forest FACE experiments. A global application of the model suggests that the response found in the experiments might also be representative of the average response of forests globally. However, the predicted NPP enhancement in tropical forests is more than twice as high as in boreal forests, suggesting that currently available FACE results are not applicable to these ecosystems. The modeled geographic pattern is to a large extent driven by the temperature dependence of the relative affinities of the primary assimilation enzyme (Rubisco) for CO₂ and O₂.     

Growth enhancement due to global atmospheric change as predicted by terrestrial ecosystem models: consistent with US forest inventory data

Small reported growth enhancement factors based on analyses of forest inventory data from the eastern USA ( Caspersen et al. 2000 , Science, 290, 1148–1151) have been interpreted as evidence against CO₂ fertilization in natural forests. We show to the contrary that growth enhancement in response to rising CO₂, as found in ecosystems with experimental CO₂ enrichment and implemented in terrestrial ecosystem models, is consistent with the data that have been presented within their uncertainties. Comparing forest inventory data with results of an empirical model of age‐dependent biomass accumulation, we find that growth enhancement of plausible magnitude could not be detected in these data, even if it were present. Although forest regrowth due to land‐use change is recognized as an important cause of carbon uptake by eastern US forests, forest inventory data do not provide a basis for eliminating environmentally induced growth enhancement as a substantial contribution to the global terrestrial carbon sink.     

How uncertainties in future climate change predictions translate into future terrestrial carbon fluxes

We forced a global terrestrial carbon cycle model by climate fields of 14 ocean and atmosphere general circulation models (OAGCMs) to simulate the response of terrestrial carbon pools and fluxes to climate change over the next century. These models participated in the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2), where a 1% per year increase of atmospheric CO₂ was prescribed. We obtain a reduction in net land uptake because of climate change ranging between 1.4 and 5.7 Gt C yr^?1 at the time of atmospheric CO₂ doubling. Such a reduction in terrestrial carbon sinks is largely dominated by the response of tropical ecosystems, where soil water stress occurs. The uncertainty in the simulated land carbon cycle response is the consequence of discrepancies in land temperature and precipitation changes simulated by the OAGCMs. We use a statistical approach to assess the coherence of the land carbon fluxes response to climate change. The biospheric carbon fluxes and pools changes have a coherent response in the tropics, in the Mediterranean region and in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. This is because of a good coherence of soil water content change in the first two regions and of temperature change in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Then we evaluate the carbon uptake uncertainties to the assumptions on plant productivity sensitivity to atmospheric CO₂ and on decomposition rate sensitivity to temperature. We show that these uncertainties are on the same order of magnitude than the uncertainty because of climate change. Finally, we find that the OAGCMs having the largest climate sensitivities to CO₂ are the ones with the largest soil drying in the tropics, and therefore with the largest reduction of carbon uptake.     

The response of soil CO2 flux to changes in atmospheric CO2, nitrogen supply and plant diversity

We measured soil CO₂ flux over 19 sampling periods that spanned two growing seasons in a grassland Free Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment (FACE) experiment that factorially manipulated three major anthropogenic global changes: atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration, nitrogen (N) supply, and plant species richness. On average, over two growing seasons, elevated atmospheric CO₂ and N fertilization increased soil CO₂ flux by 0.57 µmol m^?2 s^?1 (13% increase) and 0.37 µmol m^?2 s^?1 (8% increase) above average control soil CO₂ flux, respectively. Decreases in planted diversity from 16 to 9, 4 and 1 species decreased soil CO₂ flux by 0.23, 0.41 and 1.09 µmol m^?2 s^?1 (5%, 8% and 21% decreases), respectively. There were no statistically significant pairwise interactions among the three treatments. During 19 sampling periods that spanned two growing seasons, elevated atmospheric CO₂ increased soil CO₂ flux most when soil moisture was low and soils were warm. Effects on soil CO₂ flux due to fertilization with N and decreases in diversity were greatest at the times of the year when soils were warm, although there were no significant correlations between these effects and soil moisture. Of the treatments, only the N and diversity treatments were correlated over time; neither were correlated with the CO₂ effect. Models of soil CO₂ flux will need to incorporate ecosystem CO₂ and N availability, as well as ecosystem plant diversity, and incorporate different environmental factors when determining the magnitude of the CO₂, N and diversity effects on soil CO₂ flux.     

Forest productivity under elevated CO₂ and O₃: positive feedbacks to soil N cycling sustain decade-long net primary productivity enhancement by CO₂

The accumulation of anthropogenic CO? in the Earth's atmosphere, and hence the rate of climate warming, is sensitive to stimulation of plant growth by higher concentrations of atmospheric CO?. Here, we synthesise data from a field experiment in which three developing northern forest communities have been exposed to factorial combinations of elevated CO? and O?. Enhanced net primary productivity (NPP) (c. 26% increase) under elevated CO? was sustained by greater root exploration of soil for growth-limiting N, as well as more rapid rates of litter decomposition and microbial N release during decay. Despite initial declines in forest productivity under elevated O?, compensatory growth of O? -tolerant individuals resulted in equivalent NPP under ambient and elevated O?. After a decade, NPP has remained enhanced under elevated CO? and has recovered under elevated O? by mechanisms that remain un-calibrated or not considered in coupled climate-biogeochemical models simulating interactions between the global C cycle and climate warming.     

CO2 balance of boreal, temperate, and tropical forests derived from a global database

Terrestrial ecosystems sequester 2.1 Pg of atmospheric carbon annually. A large amount of the terrestrial sink is realized by forests. However, considerable uncertainties remain regarding the fate of this carbon over both short and long timescales. Relevant data to address these uncertainties are being collected at many sites around the world, but syntheses of these data are still sparse. To facilitate future synthesis activities, we have assembled a comprehensive global database for forest ecosystems, which includes carbon budget variables (fluxes and stocks), ecosystem traits (e.g. leaf area index, age), as well as ancillary site information such as management regime, climate, and soil characteristics. This publicly available database can be used to quantify global, regional or biome‐specific carbon budgets; to re‐examine established relationships; to test emerging hypotheses about ecosystem functioning [e.g. a constant net ecosystem production (NEP) to gross primary production (GPP) ratio]; and as benchmarks for model evaluations. In this paper, we present the first analysis of this database. We discuss the climatic influences on GPP, net primary production (NPP) and NEP and present the CO₂ balances for boreal, temperate, and tropical forest biomes based on micrometeorological, ecophysiological, and biometric flux and inventory estimates. Globally, GPP of forests benefited from higher temperatures and precipitation whereas NPP saturated above either a threshold of 1500 mm precipitation or a mean annual temperature of 10 °C. The global pattern in NEP was insensitive to climate and is hypothesized to be mainly determined by nonclimatic conditions such as successional stage, management, site history, and site disturbance. In all biomes, closing the CO₂ balance required the introduction of substantial biome‐specific closure terms. Nonclosure was taken as an indication that respiratory processes, advection, and non‐CO₂ carbon fluxes are not presently being adequately accounted for.