Past, current and future thermal profiles of green turtle nesting grounds: Implications from climate change

Sex determination and hatching success in sea turtles is temperature dependent and as a result global warming poses a threat to sea turtles. Warmer sand temperatures may skew sea turtle population′s sex ratios towards predominantly females and decrease hatching success. Therefore, understanding the rates at which sand temperatures are likely to increase as climate change progresses is warranted. We recorded sand temperature and used historical sea surface and air temperature to model past and to predict future sand temperature under various scenarios of global warming at key sea turtle nesting grounds (n = 7) used by the northern Great Barrier Reef (nGBR) green turtle, Chelonia mydas, population. Reconstructed temperatures from 1990 to the present suggest that sand temperatures at the nesting sites studied have not changed significantly during the last 18 years. Current thermal profile at the nesting grounds suggests a bias towards female hatchling production into this population. Inter-beach thermal variance was observed at some nesting grounds with open areas in the sand dune at northern facing beaches having the warmest incubating environments. Our model projections suggest that a near complete feminization of hatchling output into this population will occur by 2070 under an extreme scenario of climate change (A1T emission scenario). Importantly, we found that some nesting grounds will still produce male hatchlings, under the most extreme scenario of climate change, this finding differs from predictions for other locations. Information from this study provides a better understanding of possible future changes in hatching success and sex ratios at each site and identifies important male producing regions. This allowed us to suggest strategies that can be used at a local scale to offset some of the impacts of warmer incubating temperatures to sea turtles.     

Climate change affects the early-life history of a freshwater turtle in a severely drying region

Freshwater turtles are one of the most threatened vertebrate groups. Climate change is a major threat to these species, with impacts affecting all life-history stages. There is currently a limited understanding of how changes in climate may alter the environmental triggers for hatching and emergence from the nests of freshwater turtle hatchlings. This precludes making predictions about how climate change may impact freshwater turtle recruitment success. The southwestern snake-necked turtle (Chelodina oblonga) is endemic to south-western Australia, a global biodiversity hotspot that has undergone severe climatic drying. Recruitment failure is thought to be occurring in many populations of the species. However, there is little understanding as to how environmental change may be influencing recruitment. This study aimed to: (1) determine the incubation duration and hatching and hatchling emergence success of C. oblonga, (2) determine if the species exhibits hatching or emergence synchrony and/or delayed emergence and (3) quantify the effects of temperature and rainfall on hatchling emergence. Using this information, the study assesses how climatic drying and warming may be impacting C. oblonga's early life-history. Between 2018 and 2020 nest sites were monitored around a large urban wetland with weekly assessments of egg and hatchling status. Incubation duration and hatching and hatchling emergence success were calculated, and generalized linear models were built to determine how temperature and/or rainfall predicted emergence. Hatchlings either emerged shortly after hatching or overwintered in the nest, and both hatching and emergence were asynchronous. Both emergence periods were positively associated with temperature and rainfall. This study reveals that incubation duration, hatching success, hatchling emergence and survival are all likely to be impacted by recent and projected climate change, and especially drying. Warming and drying are predicted for many temperate regions globally, and it is therefore important that their impacts on the early life history of freshwater turtles be better understood.     

Relationship between tropical cyclones and the distribution of sea turtle nesting grounds

Aim This study examines the relationship between the distribution of existing sea turtle nesting sites and historical patterns of tropical cyclone events to investigate whether cyclones influence the current distribution of sea turtle nesting sites. The results, together with information on predicted cyclone activity and other key environmental variables, will help in the identification and prediction of future nesting sites for sea turtles as changes to the coastal environment continue. Location Queensland, Australia. Methods We used data on the nesting distribution of seven populations of four species of sea turtles [green (Chelonia mydas), flatback (Natator depressus), hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata) and loggerhead (Caretta caretta)] from the eastern Queensland coast, and tropical cyclone track data from 1969 to 2007 to explore the relationship between (1) sea turtle nesting phenology and cyclone season, and (2) sea turtle nesting sites and cyclone distribution. Furthermore, using two green turtle populations as a case study, we investigated the relationship between cyclone disturbance and sea turtle reproductive output, nesting site and season. Bootstrapping was used to explore if current sea turtle nesting sites are located in areas with lower or higher cyclone frequency than areas where turtles are currently not nesting. Results All populations of sea turtles studied here were disturbed by cyclone activity during the study period. The exposure (frequency) of tropical cyclones that crossed each nesting site varied greatly among and within the various sea turtle populations. This was mainly a result of the spatial distribution of each population’s nesting sites. Bootstrapping indicated that nesting sites generally have experienced lower cyclone activity than other areas that are available for nesting. Main conclusions Tropical cyclones might have been sufficiently detrimental to sea turtle hatching success on the eastern Queensland coast that through a natural selection process turtles in this region are now nesting in areas with lower cyclone activity. Therefore, it is important that future studies that predict climate or range shifts for sea turtle nesting distributions consider future cyclone activity as one of the variables in their model.     

Investigating the potential impacts of climate change on a marine turtle population

Recent increases in global temperatures have affected the phenology and survival of many species of plants and animals. We investigated a case study of the effects of potential climate change on a thermally sensitive species, the loggerhead sea turtle, at a breeding location at the northerly extent of the range of regular nesting in the United States. In addition to the physical limits imposed by temperature on this ectothermic species, sea turtle primary sex ratio is determined by the temperature experienced by eggs during the middle third of incubation. We recorded sand temperatures and used historical air temperatures (ATs) at Bald Head Island, NC, to examine past and predict future sex ratios under scenarios of warming. There were no significant temporal trends in primary sex ratio evident in recent years and estimated mean annual sex ratio was 58% female. Similarly, there were no temporal trends in phenology but earlier nesting and longer nesting seasons were correlated with warmer sea surface temperature. We modelled the effects of incremental increases in mean AT of up to 7.5°C, the maximum predicted increase under modelled scenarios, which would lead to 100% female hatchling production and lethally high incubation temperatures, causing reduction in hatchling production. Populations of turtles in more southern parts of the United States are currently highly female biased and are likely to become ultra‐biased with as little as 1°C of warming and experience extreme levels of mortality if warming exceeds 3°C. The lack of a demonstrable increase in AT in North Carolina in recent decades coupled with primary sex ratios that are not highly biased means that the male offspring from North Carolina could play an increasingly important role in the future viability of the loggerhead turtle in the Western Atlantic.     

Protracted rainfall decreases temperature within leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) clutches in Grenada, West Indies: Ecological implications for a species displaying temperature dependent sex determination

Protracted or intense rainfall may affect the reproductive success of reptilian species on a number of levels ranging from the availability of prey, the integrity of the nesting site and the subsequent survivability of offspring. For sea turtles (a species displaying temperature sex determination) nesting throughout the tropics and subtropics, rainfall has previously been shown to influence the development environment of clutches; in its extreme resulting in high levels of egg or hatchling mortality. Yet when compared to other abiotic variables affecting clutch success, rainfall has received relatively little attention. We therefore examined how fluctuations in local rainfall at a tropical nesting site for leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) affected the nest environment. Temperature data loggers placed within clutches (n = 8) revealed that protracted rainfall had a marked cooling effect on nests, so that seasonally improbable male-producing temperatures (< 29.75 °C) were produced. We use these data to explore how rainfall may ultimately influence the sex ratios of sea turtle hatchlings both within and between nesting seasons, and discuss the importance of robust estimates of rainfall for future demographic models.     

Communal nesting under climate change: fitness consequences of higher incubation temperatures for a nocturnal lizard

Communal nesting lizards may be vulnerable to climate warming, particularly if air temperatures regulate nest temperatures. In southeastern Australia, velvet geckos Oedura lesueurii lay eggs communally inside rock crevices. We investigated whether increases in air temperatures could elevate nest temperatures, and if so, how this could influence hatching phenotypes, survival, and population dynamics. In natural nests, maximum daily air temperature influenced mean and maximum daily nest temperatures, implying that nest temperatures will increase under climate warming. To determine whether hotter nests influence hatchling phenotypes, we incubated eggs under two fluctuating temperature regimes to mimic current ‘cold’ nests (mean = 23.2 °C, range 10–33 °C) and future ‘hot’ nests (27.0 °C, 14–37 °C). ‘Hot’ incubation temperatures produced smaller hatchlings than did cold temperature incubation. We released individually marked hatchlings into the wild in 2014 and 2015, and monitored their survival over 10 months. In 2014 and 2015, hot‐incubated hatchlings had higher annual mortality (99%, 97%) than cold‐incubated (11%, 58%) or wild‐born hatchlings (78%, 22%). To determine future trajectories of velvet gecko populations under climate warming, we ran population viability analyses in Vortex and varied annual rates of hatchling mortality within the range 78– 96%. Hatchling mortality strongly influenced the probability of extinction and the mean time to extinction. When hatchling mortality was >86%, populations had a higher probability of extinction (PE: range 0.52– 1.0) with mean times to extinction of 18–44 years. Whether future changes in hatchling survival translate into reduced population viability will depend on the ability of females to modify their nest‐site choices. Over the period 1992–2015, females used the same communal nests annually, suggesting that there may be little plasticity in maternal nest‐site selection. The impacts of climate change may therefore be especially severe on communal nesting species, particularly if such species occupy thermally challenging environments.     

Do long-term changes in sea surface temperature at the breeding areas affect the breeding dates and reproduction performance of Mediterranean loggerhead turtles? Implications for climate change

Global climate change is likely to have an important influence on the phenology, behaviour and population dynamics of many species. We investigate climatic related changes in the breeding phenology of Mediterranean loggerhead marine turtles Caretta caretta over a 19 year period and the potential relationship between these changes and reproductive success and performance. We found that the studied population has experienced fluctuating sea surface temperatures (SST) with an increasing trend during the last century. With increasing spring SST there is a trend towards earlier nesting. However, there is no significant relationship between SST and nesting season, defined as the duration between the first recorded emergence and the last nest laid. Our analyses indicate that marine turtles display phenological changes, and thus maintain favorable thermal conditions at the nesting sites. Furthermore, increasing spring SST was correlated with decreasing clutch size and increasing hatching success that resulted in an apparent lack of correlation between SST and hatchling production. This apparent independence might be misleading since it only holds for a limited range of SST values. Thus, if we estimate the effect of climate change on loggerhead population growth as neutral, based on the apparent independence between SST and total number of hatchlings, we will be underestimating the population extinction risk.     

Climate change resilience of a globally important sea turtle nesting population

Few studies have looked into climate change resilience of populations of wild animals. We use a model higher vertebrate, the green sea turtle, as its life history is fundamentally affected by climatic conditions, including temperature‐dependent sex determination and obligate use of beaches subject to sea level rise (SLR). We use empirical data from a globally important population in West Africa to assess resistance to climate change within a quantitative framework. We project 200 years of primary sex ratios (1900–2100) and create a digital elevation model of the nesting beach to estimate impacts of projected SLR. Primary sex ratio is currently almost balanced, with 52% of hatchlings produced being female. Under IPCC models, we predict: (a) an increase in the proportion of females by 2100 to 76%–93%, but cooler temperatures, both at the end of the nesting season and in shaded areas, will guarantee male hatchling production; (b) IPCC SLR scenarios will lead to 33.4%–43.0% loss of the current nesting area; (c) climate change will contribute to population growth through population feminization, with 32%–64% more nesting females expected by 2120; (d) as incubation temperatures approach lethal levels, however, the population will cease growing and start to decline. Taken together with other factors (degree of foraging plasticity, rookery size and trajectory, and prevailing threats), this nesting population should resist climate change until 2100, and the availability of spatial and temporal microrefugia indicates potential for resilience to predicted impacts, through the evolution of nest site selection or changes in nesting phenology. This represents the most comprehensive assessment to date of climate change resilience of a marine reptile using the most up‐to‐date IPCC models, appraising the impacts of temperature and SLR, integrated with additional ecological and demographic parameters. We suggest this as a framework for other populations, species and taxa.     

Sea turtle species vary in their susceptibility to tropical cyclones

Severe climatic events affect all species, but there is little quantitative knowledge of how sympatric species react to such situations. We compared the reproductive seasonality of sea turtles that nest sympatrically with their vulnerability to tropical cyclones (in this study, “tropical cyclone” refers to tropical storms and hurricanes), which are increasing in severity due to changes in global climate. Storm surges significantly decreased reproductive output by lowering the number of nests that hatched and the number of hatchlings that emerged from nests, but the severity of this effect varied by species. Leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) began nesting earliest and most offspring hatched before the tropical cyclone season arrived, resulting in little negative effect. Loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nested intermediately, and only nests laid late in the season were inundated with seawater during storm surges. Green turtles (Chelonia mydas) nested last, and their entire nesting season occurred during the tropical cyclone season; this resulted in a majority (79%) of green turtle nests incubating in September, when tropical cyclones are most likely to occur. Since this timing overlaps considerably with the tropical cyclone season, the developing eggs and nests are extremely vulnerable to storm surges. Increases in the severity of tropical cyclones may cause green turtle nesting success to worsen in the future. However, published literature suggests that loggerhead turtles are nesting earlier in the season and shortening their nesting seasons in response to increasing sea surface temperatures caused by global climate change. This may cause loggerhead reproductive success to improve in the future because more nests will hatch before the onset of tropical cyclones. Our data clearly indicate that sympatric species using the same resources are affected differently by tropical cyclones due to slight variations in the seasonal timing of nesting, a key life history process.     

Impact of Clutch Relocation on Green Turtle Offspring

ABSTRACT For species with temperature-dependent sex determination, such as marine turtles, global climate change poses numerous threats. At the nesting beach, rising temperatures are predicted to further skew already female-biased sex ratios and increase embryonic mortality; sea-level rise and resultant coastal squeeze may leave few alternative breeding habitats in developed regions. As a result, clutch relocation, a commonly used management tool to reduce egg loss, may become necessary for safeguarding populations. Although studies have examined the impact of relocation on clutch success, few have examined the impact of this practice on the sex or phenotypic characteristics of hatchlings produced. We used a randomized block design experiment to examine effects of relocation on green turtle (Chelonia mydas) clutches. We compared hatching success, thermal conditions, and size (length and mass) of hatchlings from in situ control clutches with those subjected to 2 relocation methods, while controlling for maternal and other environmental effects. Relocated clutches did not vary significantly from control clutches in incubation temperature or inferred sex ratios during the critical middle third of incubation when sex is thought to be determined. Hatchling size was also unaffected by relocation. Both relocation methods, however, resulted in a 20% reduction in hatching success in comparison to in situ clutches. Clutch relocation is, however, likely to affect the population primary sex ratio, when clutches are relocated from sites in proximity to the sea where tidal inundation is a threat. Here, cooler conditions are likely to produce more males than are the warmer female-producing temperatures higher up the beach. For clutches at risk, relocation is a viable process and does not appear to affect hatchling size or predicted sex ratios if relocation sites are selected in areas utilized by other females. We urge caution, however, when moving clutches from potentially male-producing sites, particularly given predicted impacts of climate change on already female-biased sex ratios.     

Maternal health status correlates with nest success of leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) from Florida

Of the seven sea turtle species, the critically endangered leatherback sea turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) exhibits the lowest and most variable nest success (i.e., hatching success and emergence success) for reasons that remain largely unknown. In an attempt to identify or rule out causes of low reproductive success in this species, we established the largest sample size (n = 60–70 for most values) of baseline blood parameters (protein electrophoresis, hematology, plasma biochemistry) for this species to date. Hematologic, protein electrophoretic and biochemical values are important tools that can provide information regarding the physiological condition of an individual and population health as a whole. It has been proposed that the health of nesting individuals affects their reproductive output. In order to establish correlations with low reproductive success in leatherback sea turtles from Florida, we compared maternal health indices to hatching success and emergence success of their nests. As expected, hatching success (median = 57.4%) and emergence success (median = 49.1%) in Floridian leatherbacks were low during the study period (2007–2008 nesting seasons), a trend common in most nesting leatherback populations (average global hatching success = ∼50%). One protein electrophoretic value (gamma globulin protein) and one hematologic value (red blood cell count) significantly correlated with hatching success and emergence success. Several maternal biochemical parameters correlated with hatching success and/or emergence success including alkaline phosphatase activity, blood urea nitrogen, calcium, calcium∶phosphorus ratio, carbon dioxide, cholesterol, creatinine, and phosphorus. Our results suggest that in leatherbacks, physiological parameters correlate with hatching success and emergence success of their nests. We conclude that long-term and comparative studies are needed to determine if certain individuals produce nests with lower hatching success and emergence success than others, and if those individuals with evidence of chronic suboptimal health have lower reproductive success.     

High thermal variance in naturally incubated turtle nests produces faster offspring

The effects of climate change on populations are complex and difficult to predict, and can result in mismatches between interdependent organisms or between organisms and their environment. Reptiles with temperature-dependent sex determination may be able to compensate for potential skews in offspring sex ratio caused by climate change by selecting cooler (i.e., shadier) nest sites. Although changing nest location may prevent sex ratio skews, it may also affect thermally sensitive performance traits in offspring. I tested righting, sprinting, and swimming performance in hatchling painted turtles (Chrysemys picta), produced by female turtles from five populations across the species’ geographic range, nesting in a common-garden environment. I found that speed of hatchling performance was faster in hatchlings whose mothers originated from warmer climates, and that nests with higher mean daily variation in incubation temperature produced faster hatchlings. These results suggest that the increased temperatures predicted by climate change models could result in hatchling turtles that are faster at sprinting and swimming; however, it is not yet known how these performance measures translate into fitness.     

Reconciling Biodiversity with Fishing: A Holistic Strategy for Pacific Sea Turtle Recovery

Recovery of sea turtle populations requires addressing: multiple sources of mortality; nonmarket, diffuse benefits with costs localized on the poor; and a transboundary resource with incomplete jurisprudence, markets, and institutions. Holistic recovery strategies include: beach conservation protecting nesting females, their eggs, and critical breeding habitat to maximize hatchling production; enhanced at-sea survival of turtles on the high seas and in commercial coastal fisheries; and reduced artisanal coastal fisheries mortality of turtles. The traditional approach of focusing long-term sustained conservation efforts on the nesting beaches has by itself led to increases in several sea turtle populations. However, current conservation is inadequate to reverse declines in other cases such as the critically endangered leatherback populations in the Pacific. This article discusses policy instruments comprising a holistic recovery strategy that reconciles fishing with biodiversity conservation.     

Impact of marine heatwaves for sea turtle nest temperatures

There are major concerns about the ecological impact of extreme weather events. In the oceans, marine heatwaves (MHWs) are an increasing threat causing, for example, recent devastation to coral reefs around the world. We show that these impacts extend to adjacent terrestrial systems and could negatively affect the breeding of endangered species. We demonstrate that during an MHW that resulted in major coral bleaching and mortality in a large, remote marine protected area, anomalously warm temperatures also occurred on sea turtle nesting beaches. Granger causality testing showed that variations in sea surface temperature strongly influenced sand temperatures on beaches. We estimate that the warm conditions on both coral reefs and sandy beaches during the MHW were unprecedented in the last 70 years. Model predictions suggest that the most extreme female-biased hatchling sex ratio and the lowest hatchling survival in nests in the last 70 years both occurred during the heatwave. Our work shows that predicted increases in the frequency and intensity of MHWs will likely have growing impacts on sea turtle nesting beaches as well as other terrestrial coastal environments.     

Fine-scale thermal adaptation in a green turtle nesting population

The effect of climate warming on the reproductive success of ectothermic animals is currently a subject of major conservation concern. However, for many threatened species, we still know surprisingly little about the extent of naturally occurring adaptive variation in heat-tolerance. Here, we show that the thermal tolerances of green turtle (Chelonia mydas) embryos in a single, island-breeding population have diverged in response to the contrasting incubation temperatures of nesting beaches just a few kilometres apart. In natural nests and in a common-garden rearing experiment, the offspring of females nesting on a naturally hot (black sand) beach survived better and grew larger at hot incubation temperatures compared with the offspring of females nesting on a cooler (pale sand) beach nearby. These differences were owing to shallower thermal reaction norms in the hot beach population, rather than shifts in thermal optima, and could not be explained by egg-mediated maternal effects. Our results suggest that marine turtle nesting behaviour can drive adaptive differentiation at remarkably fine spatial scales, and have important implications for how we define conservation units for protection. In particular, previous studies may have underestimated the extent of adaptive structuring in marine turtle populations that may significantly affect their capacity to respond to environmental change.     

Forecasting range expansion into ecological traps: climate‐mediated shifts in sea turtle nesting beaches and human development

Some species are adapting to changing environments by expanding their geographic ranges. Understanding whether range shifts will be accompanied by increased exposure to other threats is crucial to predicting when and where new populations could successfully establish. If species overlap to a greater extent with human development under climate change, this could form ecological traps which are attractive to dispersing individuals, but the use of which substantially reduces fitness. Until recently, the core nesting range for the Critically Endangered Kemp's ridley sea turtle (Lepidochelys kempii) was ca. 1000 km of sparsely populated coastline in Tamaulipas, Mexico. Over the past twenty‐five years, this species has expanded its range into populated areas of coastal Florida (>1500 km outside the historical range), where nesting now occurs annually. Suitable Kemp's ridley nesting habitat has persisted for at least 140 000 years in the western Gulf of Mexico, and climate change models predict further nesting range expansion into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and northern Atlantic Ocean. Range expansion is 6–12% more likely to occur along uninhabited stretches of coastline than are current nesting beaches, suggesting that novel nesting areas will not be associated with high levels of anthropogenic disturbance. Although the high breeding‐site fidelity of some migratory species could limit adaptation to climate change, rapid population recovery following effective conservation measures may enhance opportunities for range expansion. Anticipating the interactive effects of past or contemporary conservation measures, climate change, and future human activities will help focus long‐term conservation strategies.     

Microclimate modelling of beach sand temperatures reveals high spatial and temporal variation at sea turtle rookeries

The continual development of ecological models and availability of high-resolution gridded climate surfaces have stimulated studies that link climate variables to functional traits of organisms. A primary constraint of these studies is the ability to reliably predict the microclimate that an organism experiences using macroscale climate inputs. This is particularly important in regions where access to empirical information is limited. Here, we contrast correlative models based on both ambient and sea surface temperatures to mechanistic modelling approaches to predict beach sand temperatures at depths relevant to sea turtle nesting. We show that mechanistic models are congruent with correlative models at predicting sand temperatures. We used these predictions to explore thermal variation across 46 mainland and island beaches that span the geographical range of sea turtle nesting in Western Australia. Using high resolution gridded climate surfaces and site-specific soil reflectance, we predict almost 9 °C variation in average annual temperatures between beaches, and nearly 10 °C variation in average temperatures during turtle nesting seasons. Validation of models demonstrated that predictions were typically within 2 °C of observations and, although most sites had high correlations (r² > 0.7), predictive capacity varied between sites. An advantage of the mechanistic model demonstrated here is that it can be used to explore the impacts of climate change on sea turtle nesting beach temperatures as, unlike correlative models, it can be forced with novel combinations of environmental variables.     

Direct and transgenerational effects of an experimental heatwave on early life stages in a freshwater snail

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Degrees of disruption: projected temperature increase has catastrophic consequences for reproduction in a tropical ectotherm

Although climate change models predict relatively modest increases in temperature in the tropics by the end of the century, recent analyses identify tropical ectotherms as the organisms most at risk from climate warming. Because metabolic rate in ectotherms increases exponentially with temperature, even a small rise in temperature poses a physiological threat to tropical ectotherms inhabiting an already hot environment. If correct, the metabolic theory of climate warming has profound implications for global biodiversity, since tropical insects and arachnids constitute the vast majority of animal species. Predicting how climate change will translate into fitness consequences for tropical arthropods requires an understanding of the effects of temperature increase on the entire life history of the species. Here, in a comprehensive case study of the fitness consequences of the projected temperature increase for the tropics, we conducted a split‐brood experiment on the neotropical pseudoscorpion, Cordylochernes scorpioides, in which 792 offspring from 33 females were randomly assigned at birth to control‐ and high‐temperature treatments for rearing through the adult stage. The diurnally varying, control treatment temperature was determined from long‐term, average daily temperature minima and maxima in the pseudoscorpion's native habitat. In the high temperature treatment, increasing temperature by the 3.5 °C predicted for the tropics significantly reduced survival and accelerated development at the cost of reduced adult size and a dramatic decrease in level of sexual dimorphism. The most striking effects, however, involved reproductive traits. Reared at high temperature, males produced 45% as many sperm as control males, and females failed to reproduce. Sequencing of the mitochondrial ND2 gene revealed two highly divergent haplogroups that differed substantially in developmental rate and survivorship but not in reproductive response to high temperature. Our findings suggest that reproduction may be the Achilles’ heel of tropical ectotherms, as climate warming subjects them to an increasingly adverse thermal environment.     

Demographic effects of temperature‐dependent sex determination: will tuatara survive global warming?

Global climate change is of particular concern for small and isolated populations of reptiles with temperature-dependent sex determination because low genetic variation can limit adaptive response in pivotal temperatures, leading to skewed sex ratios. We explore the demographic consequences of skewed sex ratios on the viability of a tuatara population characterized by low genetic diversity. We studied the rare species of tuatara ( Sphenodon guntheri ) on the 4 ha North Brother Island in New Zealand over two nesting seasons and captured 477 individuals, with a 60% male bias in the adult population. Females first breed at 15 years and have extremely low rates of gravidity, producing clutches of three to eight eggs every 9 years. Simulations of the population using population viability analysis showed that the current population is expected to persist for at least 2000 years at hatchling sex ratios of up to 75% male, but populations with 85% male hatchlings are expected to become extinct within approximately 300 years (some eight generations). Incorporation of inbreeding depression increased the probability of extinction under male biased sex ratios, with no simulated populations surviving at hatchling sex ratios >75% male. Because recent models have predicted that climate change could lead to the production of all male S. guntheri hatchlings by 2085, we examined whether periodic intervention to produce mixed or female biased sex ratios would allow the population to survive if only males were produced in natural nests. We show that intervention every 2–3 years could buffer the effects of climate change on population sex ratios, but translocation to cooler environs might be more cost-effective. Climate change threatens tuatara populations because neither modified nesting behaviour nor adaptive response of the pivotal temperature can modify hatchling sex ratios fast enough in species with long generation intervals.