Climate warming feedback from mountain birch forest expansion: reduced albedo dominates carbon uptake

Expanding high‐elevation and high‐latitude forest has contrasting climate feedbacks through carbon sequestration (cooling) and reduced surface reflectance (warming), which are yet poorly quantified. Here, we present an empirically based projection of mountain birch forest expansion in south‐central Norway under climate change and absence of land use. Climate effects of carbon sequestration and albedo change are compared using four emission metrics. Forest expansion was modeled for a projected 2.6 °C increase in summer temperature in 2100, with associated reduced snow cover. We find that the current (year 2000) forest line of the region is circa 100 m lower than its climatic potential due to land‐use history. In the future scenarios, forest cover increased from 12% to 27% between 2000 and 2100, resulting in a 59% increase in biomass carbon storage and an albedo change from 0.46 to 0.30. Forest expansion in 2100 was behind its climatic potential, forest migration rates being the primary limiting factor. In 2100, the warming caused by lower albedo from expanding forest was 10 to 17 times stronger than the cooling effect from carbon sequestration for all emission metrics considered. Reduced snow cover further exacerbated the net warming feedback. The warming effect is considerably stronger than previously reported for boreal forest cover, because of the typically low biomass density in mountain forests and the large changes in albedo of snow‐covered tundra areas. The positive climate feedback of high‐latitude and high‐elevation expanding forests with seasonal snow cover exceeds those of afforestation at lower elevation, and calls for further attention of both modelers and empiricists. The inclusion and upscaling of these climate feedbacks from mountain forests into global models is warranted to assess the potential global impacts.     

Energy feedbacks of northern high-latitude ecosystems to the climate system due to reduced snow cover during 20th century warming

The warming associated with changes in snow cover in northern high-latitude terrestrial regions represents an important energy feedback to the climate system. Here, we simulate snow cover-climate feedbacks (i.e. changes in snow cover on atmospheric heating) across the Pan-arctic over two distinct warming periods during the 20th century, 1910–1940 and 1970–2000. We offer evidence that increases in snow cover–climate feedbacks during 1970–2000 were nearly three times larger than during 1910–1940 because the recent snow-cover change occurred in spring, when radiation load is highest, rather than in autumn. Based on linear regression analysis, we also detected a greater sensitivity of snow cover–climate feedbacks to temperature trends during the more recent time period. Pan-arctic vegetation types differed substantially in snow cover–climate feedbacks. Those with a high seasonal contrast in albedo, such as tundra, showed much larger changes in atmospheric heating than did those with a low seasonal contrast in albedo, such as forests, even if the changes in snow-cover duration were similar across the vegetation types. These changes in energy exchange warrant careful consideration in studies of climate change, particularly with respect to associated shifts in vegetation between forests, grasslands, and tundra.     

Impacts of Satellite-Based Snow Albedo Assimilation on Offline and Coupled Land Surface Model Simulations

Seasonal snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is the largest component of the terrestrial cryosphere and plays a major role in the climate system through strong positive feedbacks related to albedo. The snow-albedo feedback is invoked as an important cause for the polar amplification of ongoing and projected climate change, and its parameterization across models is an important source of uncertainty in climate simulations. Here, instead of developing a physical snow albedo scheme, we use a direct insertion approach to assimilate satellite-based surface albedo during the snow season (hereafter as snow albedo assimilation) into the land surface model ORCHIDEE (ORganizing Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic EcosystEms) and assess the influences of such assimilation on offline and coupled simulations. Our results have shown that snow albedo assimilation in both ORCHIDEE and ORCHIDEE-LMDZ (a general circulation model of Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique) improve the simulation accuracy of mean seasonal (October throughout May) snow water equivalent over the region north of 40 degrees. The sensitivity of snow water equivalent to snow albedo assimilation is more pronounced in the coupled simulation than the offline simulation since the feedback of albedo on air temperature is allowed in ORCHIDEE-LMDZ. We have also shown that simulations of air temperature at 2 meters in ORCHIDEE-LMDZ due to snow albedo assimilation are significantly improved during the spring in particular over the eastern Siberia region. This is a result of the fact that high amounts of shortwave radiation during the spring can maximize its snow albedo feedback, which is also supported by the finding that the spatial sensitivity of temperature change to albedo change is much larger during the spring than during the autumn and winter. In addition, the radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere induced by snow albedo assimilation during the spring is estimated to be -2.50 W m^-2, the magnitude of which is almost comparable to that due to CO₂ (2.83 W m^-2) increases since 1750. Our results thus highlight the necessity of realistic representation of snow albedo in the model and demonstrate the use of satellite-based snow albedo to improve model behaviors, which opens new avenues for constraining snow albedo feedback in earth system models.     

Simulated responses of potential vegetation to doubled-CO2 climate change and feedbacks on near-surface temperature

Increases in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and associated changes in climate may exert large impacts on plant physiology and the density of vegetation cover. These may in turn provide feedbacks on climate through a modification of surface‐atmosphere fluxes of energy and moisture. This paper uses asynchronously coupled models of global vegetation and climate to examine the responses of potential vegetation to different aspects of a doubled‐CO₂ environmental change, and compares the feedbacks on near‐surface temperature arising from physiological and structural components of the vegetation response. Stomatal conductance reduces in response to the higher CO₂ concentration, but rising temperatures and a redistribution of precipitation also exert significant impacts on this property as well as leading to major changes in potential vegetation structure. Overall, physiological responses act to enhance the warming near the surface, but in many areas this is offset by increases in leaf area resulting from greater precipitation and higher temperatures. Interactions with seasonal snow cover result in a positive feedback on winter warming in the boreal forest regions.     

Scale matters: fire–vegetation feedbacks are needed to explain tropical tree cover at the local scale

At a broad (regional to global) spatial scale, tropical vegetation is controlled by climate; at the local scale, it is believed to be determined by interactions between disturbance, vegetation and local conditions (soil and topography) through feedback processes. It has recently been suggested that strong fire–vegetation feedback processes may not be needed to explain tree‐cover patterns in tropical ecosystems and that climate–fire determinism is an alternative possibility. This conclusion was based on the fact that it is possible to reproduce observed patterns in tropical regions (e.g. a trimodal frequency distribution of tree cover) using a simple model that does not explicitly incorporate fire–vegetation feedback processes. We argue that these two mechanisms (feedbacks versus fire–climate control) operate at different spatial and temporal scales; it is not possible to evaluate the role of a process acting at fine scales (e.g. fire–vegetation feedbacks) using a model designed to reproduce regional‐scale pattern (scale mismatch). While the distributions of forest and savannas are partially determined by climate, many studies are providing evidence that the most parsimonious explanation for their environmental overlaps is the existence of feedback processes. Climate is unlikely to be an alternative to feedback processes; rather, climate and fire–vegetation feedbacks are complementary processes at different spatial and temporal scales.     

Indirect vegetation–soil moisture feedback with application to Holocene North Africa climate1

Using a fully coupled climate–terrestrial ecosystem model, we demonstrate explicitly that an initial perturbation on vegetation induces not only a direct positive vegetation feedback, but also a significant indirect vegetation–soil moisture feedback. The indirect feedback is generated through either fractional cover change or soil moisture depletion. Both indirect feedback mechanisms are triggered by a vegetation perturbation, but involve subsequent effects of soil moisture and evaporation, indirectly. An increase in vegetation tends to reduce bare‐ground evaporation through either the area reduction in bare ground or the depletion of soil moisture; the reduced evaporation may then counter the initial plant transpiration, favoring a negative net vegetation feedback. Furthermore, grasses are more effective in inducing the indirect vegetation–soil feedbacks, because of their limited plant evapotranspiration and shallower roots that tend to change surface soil moisture, and, in turn, evaporation, effectively. In comparison, trees favor a direct positive vegetation feedback due to their strong plant transpiration on subsurface soil moisture as well as a lower albedo.     

Coupling microscale vegetation–soil water and macroscale vegetation–precipitation feedbacks in semiarid ecosystems

At macroscale, land–atmosphere exchange of energy and water in semiarid zones such as the Sahel constitutes a strong positive feedback between vegetation density and precipitation. At microscale, however, additional positive feedbacks between hydrology and vegetation such as increase of infiltration due to increase of vegetation, have been reported and have a large impact on vegetation distribution and spatial pattern formation. If both macroscale and microscale positive feedbacks are present in the same region, it is reasonable to assume that these feedback mechanisms are connected. In this study, we develop and analyse a soil‐vegetation‐atmosphere model coupling large‐scale evapotranspiration–precipitation feedback with a model of microscale vegetation–hydrology feedback to study the integration of these nonlinearities at disparate scales. From our results, two important conclusions can be drawn: (1) it is important to account for spatially explicit vegetation dynamics at the microscale in climate models (the strength of the precipitation feedback increased up to 35% by accounting for these microscale dynamics); (2) studies on resilience of ecosystems to climate change should always be cast within a framework of possible large‐scale atmospheric feedback mechanism (substantial changes in vegetation resilience resulted from incorporating macroscale precipitation feedback). Analysis of full‐coupled modelling shows that both type of feedbacks markedly influence each other and that they should both be accounted for in climate change models.     

Phenology and species determine growing‐season albedo increase at the altitudinal limit of shrub growth in the sub‐Arctic

Arctic warming is resulting in reduced snow cover and increased shrub growth, both of which have been associated with altered land surface–atmospheric feedback processes involving sensible heat flux, ground heat flux and biogeochemical cycling. Using field measurements, we show that two common Arctic shrub species (Betula glandulosa and Salix pulchra), which are largely responsible for shrub encroachment in tundra, differed markedly in albedo and that albedo of both species increased as growing season progressed when measured at their altitudinal limit. A moveable apparatus was used to repeatedly measure albedo at six precise spots during the summer of 2012, and resampled in 2013. Contrary to the generally accepted view of shrub‐covered areas having low albedo in tundra, full‐canopy prostrate B. glandulosa had almost the highest albedo of all surfaces measured during the peak of the growing season. The higher midsummer albedo is also evident in localized MODIS albedo aggregated from 2000 to 2013, which displays a similar increase in growing‐season albedo. Using our field measurements, we show the ensemble summer increase in tundra albedo counteracts the generalized effect of earlier spring snow melt on surface energy balance by approximately 40%. This summer increase in albedo, when viewed in absolute values, is as large as the difference between the forest and tundra transition. These results indicate that near future (<50 years) changes in growing‐season albedo related to Arctic vegetation change are unlikely to be particularly large and might constitute a negative feedback to climate warming in certain circumstances. Future efforts to calculate energy budgets and a sensible heating feedback in the Arctic will require more detailed information about the relative abundance of different ground cover types, particularly shrub species and their respective growth forms and phenology.     

Climate change decreases the cooling effect from postfire albedo in boreal North America

Fire is a primary disturbance in boreal forests and generates both positive and negative climate forcings. The influence of fire on surface albedo is a predominantly negative forcing in boreal forests, and one of the strongest overall, due to increased snow exposure in the winter and spring months. Albedo forcings are spatially and temporally heterogeneous and depend on a variety of factors related to soils, topography, climate, land cover/vegetation type, successional dynamics, time since fire, season, and fire severity. However, how these variables interact to influence albedo is not well understood, and quantifying these relationships and predicting postfire albedo becomes increasingly important as the climate changes and management frameworks evolve to consider climate impacts. Here we developed a MODIS‐derived ‘blue sky’ albedo product and a novel machine learning modeling framework to predict fire‐driven changes in albedo under historical and future climate scenarios across boreal North America. Converted to radiative forcing (RF), we estimated that fires generate an annual mean cooling of ?1.77 ± 1.35 W/m² from albedo under historical climate conditions (1971–2000) integrated over 70 years postfire. Increasing postfire albedo along a south–north climatic gradient was offset by a nearly opposite gradient in solar insolation, such that large‐scale spatial patterns in RF were minimal. Our models suggest that climate change will lead to decreases in mean annual postfire albedo, and hence a decreasing strength of the negative RF, a trend dominated by decreased snow cover in spring months. Considering the range of future climate scenarios and model uncertainties, we estimate that for fires burning in the current era (2016) the cooling effect from long‐term postfire albedo will be reduced by 15%–28% due to climate change.     

Implications of CO2 fertilization for future climate change in a coupled climate–carbon model

The terrestrial carbon cycle plays a critical role in determining levels of atmospheric CO₂ that result from anthropogenic carbon emissions. Elevated atmospheric CO₂ is thought to stimulate terrestrial carbon uptake, through the process of CO₂ fertilization of vegetation productivity. This negative carbon cycle feedback results in reduced atmospheric CO₂ growth, and has likely accounted for a substantial portion of the historical terrestrial carbon sink. However, the future strength of CO₂ fertilization in response to continued carbon emissions and atmospheric CO₂ rise is highly uncertain. In this paper, the ramifications of CO₂ fertilization in simulations of future climate change are explored, using an intermediate complexity coupled climate–carbon model. It is shown that the absence of future CO₂ fertilization results in substantially higher future CO₂ levels in the atmosphere, as this removes the dominant contributor to future terrestrial carbon uptake in the model. As a result, climate changes are larger, though the radiative effect of higher CO₂ on surface temperatures in the model is offset by about 30% due to reduced positive dynamic vegetation feedbacks; that is, the removal of CO₂ fertilization results in less vegetation expansion in the model, which would otherwise constitute an important positive surface albedo‐temperature feedback. However, the effect of larger climate changes has other important implications for the carbon cycle – notably to further weaken remaining carbon sinks in the model. As a result, positive climate–carbon cycle feedbacks are larger when CO₂ fertilization is absent. This creates an interesting synergism of terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks, whereby positive (climate–carbon cycle) feedbacks are amplified when a negative (CO₂ fertilization) feedback is removed.     

The role of vegetation–microclimate feedback in promoting shrub encroachment in the northern Chihuahuan desert

Many arid and semi‐arid landscapes around the world are affected by a shift from grassland to shrubland vegetation, presumably induced by climate warming, increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, and/or changing land use. This major change in vegetation cover is likely sustained by positive feedbacks with the physical environment. Recent research has focused on a feedback with microclimate, whereby cold intolerant shrubs increase the minimum nocturnal temperatures in their surroundings. Despite the rich literature on the impact of land cover change on local climate conditions, changes in microclimate resulting from shrub expansion into desert grasslands have remained poorly investigated. It is unclear to what extent such a feedback can affect the maximum extent of shrub expansion and the configuration of a stable encroachment front. Here, we focus on the case of the northern Chihuahuan desert, where creosotebush (Larrea tridentata) has been replacing grasslands over the past 100–150 years. We use a process‐based coupled atmosphere‐vegetation model to investigate the role of this feedback in sustaining shrub encroachment in the region. Simulations indicate that the feedback allows juvenile shrubs to establish in the grassland during average years and, once established, reduce their vulnerability to freeze‐induced mortality by creating a warmer microclimate. Such a feedback is crucial in extreme cold winters as it may reduce shrub mortality. We identify the existence of a critical zone in the surroundings of the encroachment front, in which vegetation dynamics are bistable: in this zone, vegetation can be stable both as grassland and as shrubland. The existence of these alternative stable states explains why in most cases the shift from grass to shrub cover is found to be abrupt and often difficult to revert.     

Long-term Impacts of Contrasting Management of Large Ungulates in the Arctic Tundra-Forest Ecotone: Ecosystem Structure and Climate Feedback

The arctic forest-tundra ecotone (FTE) represents a major transition zone between contrasting ecosystems, which can be strongly affected by climatic and biotic factors. Expected northward expansion and encroachment on arctic tundra in response to climate warming may be counteracted by natural and anthropogenic processes such as defoliating insect outbreaks and grazing/browsing regimes. Such natural and anthropogenic changes in land cover can substantially affect FTE dynamics, alter ground albedo (index of the amount of solar energy reflected back into the atmosphere) and provide important feedbacks into the climate system. We took advantage of a naturally occurring contrast between reindeer grazing regimes in a border region between northern Finland and Norway which was recently defoliated by an outbreak of the geometrid moth. We examined ecosystem-wide contrasts between potentially year-round (but mainly summer) grazed (YRG) regions in Finland and mainly winter grazed (WG) regions in Norway. We also used a remotely sensed vegetation index and albedo to quantify effects on local energy balance and potential climate feedbacks. Although differences in soil characteristics and ground vegetation cover were small, we found dramatic differences in the tree layer component of the ecosystem. Regeneration of mountain birch stands appears to have been severely hampered in the YRG regime, by limiting regeneration from basal shoots and reestablishment of individual trees from saplings. This has led to a more open forest structure and a significant 5% increase in spring albedo in the summer grazed compared to the winter grazed regions. This supports recent suggestions that ecosystem processes in the Arctic can significantly influence the climate system, and that such processes must be taken into account when developing climate change scenarios and adaptation strategies.     

Coupling dynamic models of climate and vegetation

Numerous studies have underscored the importance of terrestrial ecosystems as an integral component of the Earth's climate system. This realization has already led to efforts to link simple equilibrium vegetation models with Atmospheric General Circulation Models through iterative coupling procedures. While these linked models have pointed to several possible climate–vegetation feedback mechanisms, they have been limited by two shortcomings: (i) they only consider the equilibrium response of vegetation to shifting climatic conditions and therefore cannot be used to explore transient interactions between climate and vegetation; and (ii) the representations of vegetation processes and land-atmosphere exchange processes are still treated by two separate models and, as a result, may contain physical or ecological inconsistencies. Here we present, as a proof concept, a more tightly integrated framework for simulating global climate and vegetation interactions. The prototype coupled model consists of the GENESIS (version 2) Atmospheric General Circulation Model and the IBIS (version 1) Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. The two models are directly coupled through a common treatment of land surface and ecophysiological processes, which is used to calculate the energy, water, carbon, and momentum fluxes between vegetation, soils, and the atmosphere. On one side of the interface, GENESIS simulates the physics and general circulation of the atmosphere. On the other side, IBIS predicts transient changes in the vegetation structure through changes in the carbon balance and competition among plants within terrestrial ecosystems. As an initial test of this modelling framework, we perform a 30 year simulation in which the coupled model is supplied with modern CO₂ concentrations, observed ocean temperatures, and modern insolation. In this exploratory study, we run the GENESIS atmospheric model at relatively coarse horizontal resolution (4.5° latitude by 7.5° longitude) and IBIS at moderate resolution (2° latitude by 2° longitude). We initialize the models with globally uniform climatic conditions and the modern distribution of potential vegetation cover. While the simulation does not fully reach equilibrium by the end of the run, several general features of the coupled model behaviour emerge. We compare the results of the coupled model against the observed patterns of modern climate. The model correctly simulates the basic zonal distribution of temperature and precipitation, but several important regional biases remain. In particular, there is a significant warm bias in the high northern latitudes, and cooler than observed conditions over the Himalayas, central South America, and north-central Africa. In terms of precipitation, the model simulates drier than observed conditions in much of South America, equatorial Africa and Indonesia, with wetter than observed conditions in northern Africa and China. Comparing the model results against observed patterns of vegetation cover shows that the general placement of forests and grasslands is roughly captured by the model. In addition, the model simulates a roughly correct separation of evergreen and deciduous forests in the tropical, temperate and boreal zones. However, the general patterns of global vegetation cover are only approximately correct: there are still significant regional biases in the simulation. In particular, forest cover is not simulated correctly in large portions of central Canada and southern South America, and grasslands extend too far into northern Africa. These preliminary results demonstrate the feasibility of coupling climate models with fully dynamic representations of the terrestrial biosphere. Continued development of fully coupled climate-vegetation models will facilitate the exploration of a broad range of global change issues, including the potential role of vegetation feedbacks within the climate system, and the impact of climate variability and transient climate change on the terrestrial biosphere.     

Abrupt shifts in African savanna tree cover along a climatic gradient

Aim To describe patterns of tree cover in savannas over a climatic gradient and a range of spatial scales and test if there are identifiable climate‐related mean structures, if tree cover always increases with water availability and if there is a continuous trend or a stepwise trend in tree cover. Location Central Tropical Africa. Methods We compared a new analysis of satellite tree cover data with botanical, phytogeographical and environmental data. Results Along the climatic transect, six vegetation structures were distinguished according to their average tree cover, which can co‐occur as mosaics. The resulting abrupt shifts in tree cover were not correlated to any shifts in either environmental variables or in tree species distributions. Main conclusions A strong contrast appears between fine‐scale variability in tree cover and coarse‐scale structural states that are stable over several degrees of latitude. While climate parameters and species pools display a continuous evolution along the climatic gradient, these stable structural states have discontinuous transitions, resulting in regions containing mosaics of alternative stable states. Soils appear to have little effect inside the climatic stable state domains but a strong action on the location of the transitions. This indicates that savannas are patch dynamics systems, prone to feedbacks stabilizing their coarse‐scale structure over wide ranges of environmental conditions.     

Vegetation-atmosphere interactions and their role in global warming during the latest Cretaceous

Forest vegetation has the ability to warm Recent climate by its effects on albedo and atmospheric water vapour, but the role of vegetation in warming climates of the geologic past is poorly understood. This study evaluates the role of forest vegetation in maintaining warm climates of the Late Cretaceous by (1) reconstructing global palaeovegetation for the latest Cretaceous (Maastrichtian); (2) modelling latest Cretaceous climate under unvegetated conditions and different distributions of palaeovegetation; and (3) comparing model output with a global database of palaeoclimatic indicators. Simulation of Maastrichtian climate with the land surface coded as bare soil produces high-latitude temperatures that are too cold to explain the documented palaeogeographic distribution of forest and woodland vegetation. In contrast, simulations that include forest vegetation at high latitudes show significantly warmer temperatures that are sufficient to explain the widespread geographic distribution of high-latitude deciduous forests. These warmer temperatures result from decreased albedo and feedbacks between the land surface and adjacent oceans. Prescribing a realistic distribution of palaeovegetation in model simulations produces the best agreement between simulated climate and the geologic record of palaeoclimatic indicators. Positive feedbacks between high-latitude forests, the atmosphere, and ocean contributed significantly to high-latitude warming during the latest Cretaceous, and imply that high-latitude forest vegetation was an important source of polar warmth during other warm periods of geologic history.     

Disentangling the mechanisms behind winter snow impact on vegetation activity in northern ecosystems

Although seasonal snow is recognized as an important component in the global climate system, the ability of snow to affect plant production remains an important unknown for assessing climate change impacts on vegetation dynamics at high‐latitude ecosystems. Here, we compile data on satellite observation of vegetation greenness and spring onset date, satellite‐based soil moisture, passive microwave snow water equivalent (SWE) and climate data to show that winter SWE can significantly influence vegetation greenness during the early growing season (the period between spring onset date and peak photosynthesis timing) over nearly one‐fifth of the land surface in the region north of 30 degrees, but the magnitude and sign of correlation exhibits large spatial heterogeneity. We then apply an assembled path model to disentangle the two main processes (via changing early growing‐season soil moisture, and via changing the growth period) in controlling the impact of winter SWE on vegetation greenness, and suggest that the “moisture” and “growth period” effect, to a larger extent, result in positive and negative snow–productivity associations, respectively. The magnitude and sign of snow–productivity association is then dependent upon the relative dominance of these two processes, with the “moisture” effect and positive association predominating in Central, western North America and Greater Himalaya, and the “growth period” effect and negative association in Central Europe. We also indicate that current state‐of‐the‐art models in general reproduce satellite‐based snow–productivity relationship in the region north of 30 degrees, and do a relatively better job of capturing the “moisture” effect than the “growth period” effect. Our results therefore work towards an improved understanding of winter snow impact on vegetation greenness in northern ecosystems, and provide a mechanistic basis for more realistic terrestrial carbon cycle models that consider the impacts of winter snow processes.     

Coincident scales of forest feedback on climate and conservation in a diversity hot spot

The dynamic relationship between vegetation and climate is now widely acknowledged. Climate influences the distribution of vegetation; and through a number of feedback mechanisms vegetation affects climate. This implies that land-use changes such as deforestation will have climatic consequences. However, the spatial scales at which such feedbacks occur remain largely unknown. Here, we use a large database of precipitation and tree cover records for an area of the biodiversity-rich Atlantic forest region in south eastern Brazil to investigate the forest-rainfall feedback at a range of spatial scales from ca 10(1)-10(4) km2. We show that the strength of the feedback increases up to scales of at least 10(3) km2, with the climate at a particular locality influenced by the pattern of landcover extending over a large area. Thus, smaller forest fragments, even if well protected, may suffer degradation due to the climate responding to land-use change in the surrounding area. Atlantic forest vertebrate taxa also require large areas of forest to support viable populations. Areas of forest of ca 10(3) km2 would be large enough to support such populations at the same time as minimizing the risk of climatic feedbacks resulting from deforestation.     

GIS‐analysis of tree‐line elevation in the Swiss Alps suggests no exposure effect

Abstract. Counter intuition, an analysis of tree‐line position across the Swiss Alps based on a geographical information system (GIS) with a spatial resolution of 100 m (2.5 million points) revealed no difference in climatic tree‐line altitude with slope exposure. Through step wise discrimination procedures our analysis accounts for anthropogenic tree‐line depression. Any land cover bias affects the frequency of GIS‐points corresponding to tree‐line forests rather than the mean elevation of such points, captured by our analysis. We explain this phenomenon (1) by the absence of significant drought effects in the Alps (no disadvantages for southwest slopes), (2) by the fact that tree tops, unlike low stature vegetation, do not profit from greater radiation warming on south slopes during the growing season but are thermally coupled to free air circulation, and (3) by preliminary data for root zone temperatures during the growing season, which do not differ between south and north slopes, as long as the soil is screened by a closed forest canopy. The overall difference in season length and snow cover, often seen between south and north slopes, does not seem to affect tree‐line position but explains greater natural forest fragmentation on north slopes. It is this greater fragmentation and patchiness (avalanche tracks, snow beds etc.) which seem to have nourished the idea of a generally lower limit of tree growth and tree lines at northern slopes. These results are in line with a recently developed theory, which suggests that tree‐line elevations in humid climates correspond to similar isotherms, irrespective of latitude and thus, season length.     

Dispersal limitation drives successional pathways in Central Siberian forests under current and intensified fire regimes

Fire is a primary driver of boreal forest dynamics. Intensifying fire regimes due to climate change may cause a shift in boreal forest composition toward reduced dominance of conifers and greater abundance of deciduous hardwoods, with potential biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks to regional and global climate. This shift has already been observed in some North American boreal forests and has been attributed to changes in site conditions. However, it is unknown if the mechanisms controlling fire‐induced changes in deciduous hardwood cover are similar among different boreal forests, which differ in the ecological traits of the dominant tree species. To better understand the consequences of intensifying fire regimes in boreal forests, we studied postfire regeneration in five burns in the Central Siberian dark taiga, a vast but poorly studied boreal region. We combined field measurements, dendrochronological analysis, and seed‐source maps derived from high‐resolution satellite images to quantify the importance of site conditions (e.g., organic layer depth) vs. seed availability in shaping postfire regeneration. We show that dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers was the main factor determining postfire regeneration composition and density. Site conditions had significant but weaker effects. We used information on postfire regeneration to develop a classification scheme for successional pathways, representing the dominance of deciduous hardwoods vs. evergreen conifers at different successional stages. We estimated the spatial distribution of different successional pathways under alternative fire regime scenarios. Under intensified fire regimes, dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers is predicted to become more severe, primarily due to reduced abundance of surviving seed sources within burned areas. Increased dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers, in turn, is predicted to increase the prevalence of successional pathways dominated by deciduous hardwoods. The likely fire‐induced shift toward greater deciduous hardwood cover may affect climate–vegetation feedbacks via surface albedo, Bowen ratio, and carbon cycling.     

Snow cover manipulations alter survival of early life stages of cold‐temperate tree species

Projections of future climate suggest increases in global temperatures that are especially pronounced in winter in cold‐temperate regions. Thermal insulation provided by snow cover to litter, soil, and overwintering plants will likely be affected by changing winter temperatures and might influence future species composition and ranges. We investigated effects of changing snow cover on seed germination and sapling survival of several cold‐temperate tree species using a snow manipulation approach. Post‐winter seed germination increased or decreased with increasing snow cover, depending on species; decreased seed germination was found in species that characteristically disperse seed in summer or fall months prior to snowfall. Post‐winter sapling survival increased with increasing snow cover for all species, though some species benefitted more from increased snow cover than others. Sapling mortality was associated with root exposure, suggesting the possibility that soil frost heaving could be an important mechanism for observed effects. Our results suggest that altered snow regimes may cause re‐assembly of current species habitat relationships and may drive changes in species’ biogeographic range. However, local snow regimes also vary with associated vegetation cover and topography, suggesting that species distribution patterns may be strongly influenced by spatial heterogeneity in snow regimes and complicating future projections.