Climate change and voltinism in Californian insect pest species: sensitivity to location,scenario and climate model choice

Experimental studies of the impact of climatic change are hampered by their inability to consider multiple climate change scenarios and indeed often consider no more than simple climate sensitivity such as a uniform increase in temperature. Modelling efforts offer the ability to consider a much wider range of realistic climate projections and are therefore useful, in particular, for estimating the sensitivity of impact predictions to differences in geographical location, and choice of climate change scenario and climate model projections. In this study, we used well‐established degree‐day models to predict the voltinism of 13 agronomically important pests in California, USA. We ran these models using the projections from three Atmosphere–Ocean Coupled Global Circulation Models (AOCGCMs or GCMs), in conjunction with the SRES scenarios. We ran these for two locations representing northern and southern California. We did this for both the 2050s and 2090s. We used anova to partition the variation in the resulting voltinism among time period, climate change scenario, GCM and geographical location. For these 13 pest species, the choice of climate model explained an average of 42% of the total variation in voltinism, far more than did geographical location (33%), time period (17%) or scenario (1%). The remaining 7% of the variation was explained by various interactions, of which the location by GCM interaction was the strongest (5%). Regardless of these sources of uncertainty, a robust conclusion from our work is that all 13 pest species are likely to experience increases in the number of generations that they complete each year. Such increased voltinism is likely to have significant consequences for crop protection and production.     

Will climate change be beneficial or detrimental to the invasive swede midge in North America? Contrasting predictions using climate projections from different general circulation models

Climate change may dramatically affect the distribution and abundance of organisms. With the world's population size expected to increase significantly during the next 100 years, we need to know how climate change might impact our food production systems. In particular, we need estimates of how future climate might alter the distribution of agricultural pests. We used the climate projections from two general circulation models (GCMs) of global climate, the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis GCM (CGCM2) and the Hadley Centre model (HadCM3), for the A2 and B2 scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios in conjunction with a previously published bioclimatic envelope model (BEM) to predict the potential changes in distribution and abundance of the swede midge, Contarinia nasturtii, in North America. The BEM in conjunction with either GCM predicted that C. nasturtii would spread from its current initial invasion in southern Ontario and northwestern New York State into the Canadian prairies, northern Canada, and midwestern United States, but the magnitude of risk depended strongly on the GCM and the scenario used. When the CGCM2 projections were used, the BEM predicted an extensive shift in the location of the midges' climatic envelope through most of Ontario, Quebec, and the maritime and prairie provinces by the 2080s. In the United States, C. nasturtii was predicted to spread to all the Great Lake states, into midwestern states as far south as Colorado, and west into Washington State. When the HadCM3 was applied, southern Ontario, Saskatchewan, and Washington State were not as favourable for C. nasturtii by the 2080s. Indeed, when used with the HadCM3 climate projections, the BEM predicted the virtual disappearance of ‘very favourable’ regions for C. nasturtii. The CGCM2 projections generally caused the BEM to predict a small increase in the mean number of midge generations throughout the course of the century, whereas, the HadCM3 projections resulted in roughly the same mean number of generations but decreased variance. Predictions of the likely potential of C. nasturtii spatial spread are thus strongly dependent on the source of climate projections. This study illustrates the importance of using multiple GCMs in combination with multiple scenarios when studying the potential for spatial spread of an organism in response to climate change.     

Environmental factors determining the establishment of the African Long‐legged Buzzard Buteo rufinus cirtensis in Western Europe

Winters have become warmer under the impact of climate change, which has modified the phenology as well as the distribution ranges of birds. The African Long‐legged Buzzard Buteo rufinus cirtensis has recently colonized Europe via the Strait of Gibraltar. We aim to explain the native distribution of this species and to predict favourable areas in newly colonized parts of Europe using geospatial modelling to identify the most influential factors in this process. We applied the favourability function, a generalized linear model describing environmental favourability, for the presence/absence of breeding areas in northern Morocco and the southern Iberian Peninsula, according to a set of variables describing climate, topography, human activity, vegetation and purely spatial trends. A model was built using some known breeding sites in northern Morocco, and was used to forecast future suitable breeding areas in Europe. A second model was built with the available data for northern Morocco and Europe to explain the current distribution of breeding sites. Both models were assessed according to discrimination, calibration and parsimony criteria, and the influence of each factor was analysed using variation partitioning. We conclude that the Iberian Peninsula could provide new suitable areas for the species and facilitate its northward expansion. This result, together with the increasing number of records available, suggests that this species could soon spread throughout Europe. Steady temperatures and abundant but seasonally distributed precipitation showed the strongest predictive power in the models. This indicates a close relationship between the species’ distribution and climate in the study area, and suggests that this species finds its most favourable environments in the Mediterranean biome. Topography and vegetation, specifically cliffs and woods near hunting zones, point to a fine‐scale habitat selection for breeding. As the case of the African Long‐legged Buzzard is not a unique event, our results may be useful to determine whether a northward expansion of the Mediterranean biome could be followed by distribution shifts of bird species that have so far been restricted to Africa.     

Spatial variability in species' potential distributions during the Last Glacial Maximum under different Global Circulation Models: Relevance in evolutionary biology

Ecological niche models (ENM) have been used to reconstruct potential distributions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)—or other time periods—and this use is increasingly common in zoological studies. For this reason, we urgently need understanding factors affecting these predictions. Here, we examine how the use of different Global Circulation Models (GCMs) affects the variability in species' potential distributions during the LGM and how the degree of model extrapolation and its associated uncertainty depends on the GCM used. We develop these issues using two North American shrews, Notiosorex crawfordi and Cryptotis alticola, inhabiting two environmentally different regions. First, we compared paleoclimates in these two regions simulated by three GCMs: Community Climate System Model (CCSM), Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), and the Max‐Planck‐Institute für Meteorologie model (MPI). Then, we used maxent to estimate the LGM potential distribution of these two mammals under the three GCMs to assess the spatial variability and extrapolation uncertainty associated with idiosyncrasies of GCM. MIROC estimated noticeably more different climatic conditions than CCSM and MPI in the study areas during the LGM, and its pattern of environmental conditions was distributed differently. The MIROC scenario suggested a remarkable different prediction of potential distribution for both species, being more dramatic for the high mountain shrew, C. alticola. In particular, climatic differences among GCMs resulted in differences in the factors that limit and drive the potential distribution of the species during the LGM. Equally dramatic was the disagreement of extrapolation areas among GCMs. MIROC showed a greater number of pixels where extrapolation is required in both regions. Our findings should be taken into consideration when identifying areas of endemism, dynamic geographic barriers, and glacial refugia. When projecting into alternative scenarios of LGM climate, the idiosyncrasies of each GCM should be explicitly taken into account.     

Climate change scenarios and models yield conflicting predictions about the future risk of an invasive species in North America

• 1 The pea leafminer Liriomyza huidobrensis (Blanchard) (Diptera: Agromyzidae) is an invasive species in North America and a serious economic pest on a wide variety of crops. We developed a bioclimatic envelope model (BEM) for this species and examined the envelope's potential location in North America under various future climates.
• 2 We compared the future bioclimatic envelopes for L. huidobrensis using either simple scenarios comprising uniform changes in temperature/precipitation or climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs). Our simple scenarios were: (i) an increase of 0.1°C per degree in latitude with a 20% increase in summer precipitation and a 20% decrease in winter precipitation and (ii) an overall increase of 3°C everywhere, also with the same changes in precipitation. For GCM‐modelled climate change, we used the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis GCM (CGCM2) and the Hadley Centre climate model (HadCM3), each in combination with two scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (A2 and B2).
• 3 The BEM results using the simple scenarios were more similar to each other than to the results obtained using GCM projections. The results were also qualitatively different (i.e. spatially different and divergent) depending on which GCM‐scenario combination was used.
• 4 This modelling exercise illustrates that: (i) results using first approximation simple climate change scenarios can give predictions very different from those that use GCM‐modelled climate projections (comprising a result that has worrying implications for empirical impact research) and that (ii) different GCM‐models using the same scenario can give very different results (implying strong model dependency in projected biological impacts).

     

Mutualism influences species distribution predictions for a bromeliad‐breeding anuran under climate change

Ecological niche models, or species distribution models, have been widely used to identify potentially suitable areas for species in future climate change scenarios. However, there are inherent errors to these models due to their inability to evaluate species occurrence influenced by non‐climatic factors. With the intuit to improve the modelling predictions for a bromeliad‐breeding treefrog (Phyllodytes melanomystax, Hylidae), we investigate how the climatic suitability of bromeliads influences the distribution model for the treefrog in the context of baseline and 2050 climate change scenarios. We used point occurrence data on the frog and the bromeliad (Vriesea procera, Bromeliaceae) to generate their predicted distributions based on baseline and 2050 climates. Using a consensus of five algorithms, we compared the accuracy of the models and the geographic predictions for the frog generated from two modelling procedures: (i) a climate‐only model for P. melanomystax and V. procera; and (ii) a climate‐biotic model for P. melanomystax, in which the climatic suitability of the bromeliad was jointly considered with the climatic variables. Both modelling approaches generated strong and similar predictive power for P. melanomystax, yet climate‐biotic modelling generated more concise predictions, particularly for the year 2050. Specifically, because the predicted area of the bromeliad overlaps with the predictions for the treefrog in the baseline climate, both modelling approaches produce reasonable similar predicted areas for the anuran. Alternatively, due to the predicted loss of northern climatically suitable areas for the bromeliad by 2050, only the climate‐biotic models provide evidence that northern populations of P. melanomystax will likely be negatively affected by 2050.     

Global warming promotes biological invasion of a honey bee pest

Climate change and biological invasions are two major global environmental challenges. Both may interact, e.g. via altered impact and distribution of invasive alien species. Even though invasive species play a key role for compromising the health of honey bees, the impact of climate change on the severity of such species is still unknown. The small hive beetle (SHB, Aethina tumida, Murray) is a parasite of honey bee colonies. It is endemic to sub‐Saharan Africa and has established populations on all continents except Antarctica. Since SHBs pupate in soil, pupation performance is governed foremost by two abiotic factors, soil temperature and moisture, which will be affected by climate change. Here, we investigated SHB invasion risk globally under current and future climate scenarios. We modelled survival and development time during pupation (=pupal performance) in response to soil temperature and soil moisture using published and novel experimental data. Presence data on SHB distribution were used for model validation. We then linked the model with global soil data in order to classify areas (resolution: 10 arcmin; i.e. 18.6 km at the equator) as unsuitable, marginal and suitable for SHB pupation performance. Under the current climate, the results show that many areas globally yet uninvaded are actually suitable, suggesting considerable SHB invasion risk. Future scenarios of global warming project a vehement increase in climatic suitability for SHB and corresponding potential for invasion, especially in the temperate regions of the Northern hemisphere, thereby creating demand for enhanced and adapted mitigation and management. Our analysis shows, for the first time, effects of global warming on a honey bee pest and will help areas at risk to prepare adequately. In conclusion, this is a clear case for global warming promoting biological invasion of a pest species with severe potential to harm important pollinator species globally.     

Back to the future: using historical climate variation to project near‐term shifts in habitat suitable for coast redwood

Studies that model the effect of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems often use climate projections from downscaled global climate models (GCMs). These simulations are generally too coarse to capture patterns of fine‐scale climate variation, such as the sharp coastal energy and moisture gradients associated with wind‐driven upwelling of cold water. Coastal upwelling may limit future increases in coastal temperatures, compromising GCMs’ ability to provide realistic scenarios of future climate in these coastal ecosystems. Taking advantage of naturally occurring variability in the high‐resolution historic climatic record, we developed multiple fine‐scale scenarios of California climate that maintain coherent relationships between regional climate and coastal upwelling. We compared these scenarios against coarse resolution GCM projections at a regional scale to evaluate their temporal equivalency. We used these historically based scenarios to estimate potential suitable habitat for coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens D. Don) under ‘normal’ combinations of temperature and precipitation, and under anomalous combinations representative of potential future climates. We found that a scenario of warmer temperature with historically normal precipitation is equivalent to climate projected by GCMs for California by 2020–2030 and that under these conditions, climatically suitable habitat for coast redwood significantly contracts at the southern end of its current range. Our results suggest that historical climate data provide a high‐resolution alternative to downscaled GCM outputs for near‐term ecological forecasts. This method may be particularly useful in other regions where local climate is strongly influenced by ocean–atmosphere dynamics that are not represented by coarse‐scale GCMs.     

Simulating the effects of climate change on the distribution of an invasive plant,using a high resolution,local scale,mechanistic approach: challenges and insights

The growing economic and ecological damage associated with biological invasions, which will likely be exacerbated by climate change, necessitates improved projections of invasive spread. Generally, potential changes in species distribution are investigated using climate envelope models; however, the reliability of such models has been questioned and they are not suitable for use at local scales. At this scale, mechanistic models are more appropriate. This paper discusses some key requirements for mechanistic models and utilises a newly developed model (PSS[gt]) that incorporates the influence of habitat type and related features (e.g., roads and rivers), as well as demographic processes and propagule dispersal dynamics, to model climate induced changes in the distribution of an invasive plant (Gunnera tinctoria) at a local scale. A new methodology is introduced, dynamic baseline benchmarking, which distinguishes climate‐induced alterations in species distributions from other potential drivers of change. Using this approach, it was concluded that climate change, based on IPCC and C4i projections, has the potential to increase the spread‐rate and intensity of G. tinctoria invasions. Increases in the number of individuals were primarily due to intensification of invasion in areas already invaded or in areas projected to be invaded in the dynamic baseline scenario. Temperature had the largest influence on changes in plant distributions. Water availability also had a large influence and introduced the most uncertainty in the projections. Additionally, due to the difficulties of parameterising models such as this, the process has been streamlined by utilising methods for estimating unknown variables and selecting only essential parameters.     

Risk of genetic maladaptation due to climate change in three major European tree species

Tree populations usually show adaptations to their local environments as a result of natural selection. As climates change, populations can become locally maladapted and decline in fitness. Evaluating the expected degree of genetic maladaptation due to climate change will allow forest managers to assess forest vulnerability, and develop strategies to preserve forest health and productivity. We studied potential genetic maladaptation to future climates in three major European tree species, Norway spruce (Picea abies), silver fir (Abies alba), and European beech (Fagus sylvatica). A common garden experiment was conducted to evaluate the quantitative genetic variation in growth and phenology of seedlings from 77 to 92 native populations of each species from across Switzerland. We used multivariate genecological models to associate population variation with past seed source climates, and to estimate relative risk of maladaptation to current and future climates based on key phenotypic traits and three regional climate projections within the A1B scenario. Current risks from climate change were similar to average risks from current seed transfer practices. For all three climate models, future risks increased in spruce and beech until the end of the century, but remained low in fir. Largest average risks associated with climate projections for the period 2061–2090 were found for spruce seedling height (0.64), and for beech bud break and leaf senescence (0.52 and 0.46). Future risks for spruce were high across Switzerland. However, areas of high risk were also found in drought‐prone regions for beech and in the southern Alps for fir. Genetic maladaptation to future climates is likely to become a problem for spruce and beech by the end of this century, but probably not for fir. Consequently, forest management strategies should be adjusted in the study area for spruce and beech to maintain productive and healthy forests in the future.     

Upward elevation and northwest range shifts for alpine Meconopsis species in the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountains region

Climate change may impact the distribution of species by shifting their ranges to higher elevations or higher latitudes. The impacts on alpine plant species may be particularly profound due to a potential lack of availability of future suitable habitat. To identify how alpine species have responded to climate change during the past century as well as to predict how they may react to possible global climate change scenarios in the future, we investigate the climatic responses of seven species of Meconopsis, a representative genus endemic in the alpine meadow and subnival region of the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountains. We analyzed past elevational shifts, as well as projected shifts in longitude, latitude, elevation, and range size using historical specimen records and species distribution modeling under optimistic (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) scenarios across three general circulation models for 2070. Our results indicate that across all seven species, there has been an upward shift in mean elevation of 302.3 m between the pre‐1970s (1922–1969) and the post‐1970s (1970–2016). The model predictions suggest that the future suitable climate space will continue to shift upwards in elevation (as well as northwards and westwards) by 2070. While for most of the analyzed species, the area of suitable climate space is predicted to expand under the optimistic emission scenario, the area contracts, or, at best, shows little change under the pessimistic scenario. Species such as M. punicea, which already occupy high latitudes, are consistently predicted to experience a contraction of suitable climate space across all the models by 2070 and may consequently deserve particular attention by conservation strategies. Collectively, our results suggest that the alpine high‐latitude species analyzed here have already been significantly impacted by climate change and that these trends may continue over the coming decades.     

Modelling distribution in European stream macroinvertebrates under future climates

Climate change is predicted to have profound effects on freshwater organisms due to rising temperatures and altered precipitation regimes. Using an ensemble of bioclimatic envelope models (BEMs), we modelled the climatic suitability of 191 stream macroinvertebrate species from 12 orders across Europe under two climate change scenarios for 2080 on a spatial resolution of 5 arc minutes. Analyses included assessments of relative changes in species’ climatically suitable areas as well as their potential shifts in latitude and longitude with respect to species’ thermal preferences. Climate‐change effects were also analysed regarding species’ ecological and biological groupings, namely (1) endemicity and (2) rarity within European ecoregions, (3) life cycle, (4) stream zonation preference and (5) current preference. The BEMs projected that suitable climate conditions would persist in Europe in the year 2080 for nearly 99% of the modelled species regardless of the climate scenario. Nevertheless, a decrease in the amount of climatically suitable areas was projected for 57–59% of the species. Depending on the scenario, losses could be of 38–44% on average. The suitable areas for species were projected to shift, on average, 4.7–6.6° north and 3.9–5.4° east. Cold‐adapted species were projected to lose climatically suitable areas, while gains were expected for warm‐adapted species. When projections were analysed for different species groupings, only endemics stood out as a particular group. That is, endemics were projected to lose significantly larger amounts of suitable climatic areas than nonendemic species. Despite the uncertainties involved in modelling exercises such as this, the extent of projected distributional changes reveals further the vulnerability of freshwater organisms to climate change and implies a need to understand the consequences for ecological function and biodiversity conservation.     

Predation by polyphagous carabid beetles on eggs of a pest slug: Potential implications of climate change

Harpalus rufipes and Poecilus cupreus are two widespread polyphagous carabids which are known to destroy eggs of the pest slug Deroceras reticulatum in the laboratory. To examine the effect of temperature on the predation of the eggs of D. reticulatum by H. rufipes and P. cupreus, a laboratory experiment with different temperatures and a semi‐field experiment including simulated warming were performed. In both experiments, H. rufipes killed more eggs than P. cupreus, and the predatory activity of the former increased significantly with increasing temperature. To our knowledge, this is the first study on predatory activity of polyphagous carabids on the eggs of a pest slug performed under a climate warming scenario. Results suggest that biological pest control performed by polyphagous carabids such as H. rufipes upon pest slugs may be enhanced under predicted climate warming conditions.     

Behavioural responses of the small hive beetle to volatile components of fermenting honeybee hive products

The small hive beetle, Aethina tumida Murray (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae), is a significant pest of managed honeybees in the USA and eastern Australia. The beetle damages hives by feeding on hive products and leaving behind fermented wastes. The beetle is consistently associated with the yeast Kodamaea ohmeri (Etchells & Bell) Yamada et al. (Saccharomycetales: Metschnikowiaceae), and this yeast is the presumed agent of the fermentation. Previous work has noted that the small hive beetle is attracted to volatiles from hive products and those of the yeast K. ohmeri. In this study, we investigated how the volatile compounds from the fermenting hive products change depending upon the source of the hive material and also how these volatiles change through time. We used gas chromatography–mass spectrometry and choice‐test behavioural assays to investigate these changes using products sampled from apiaries across the established range of the beetle in eastern Australia. The starting hive products significantly affected the volatile composition of fermenting hive products, and this composition varied throughout time. We found 61.7% dissimilarity between attractive and non‐attractive fermenting hive products, and identified individual compounds that characterise each of these groups. Eleven of these individual compounds were then assessed for attractiveness, as well as testing a synthetic blend in the laboratory. In the laboratory bioassay, 82.1 ± 0.02% of beetles were trapped in blend traps. These results have strong implications for the development of an out‐of‐hive attractant trap to assist in the management of this invasive pest.     

Using the MaxEnt model for assessing the impact of climate change on the Aurasian Aleppo pine distribution in Algeria

In the context of recent climate changes and their impact on the vegetation cover in the southern shore of the Mediterranean, this paper deals with the potential distribution in the present and the future of the Aleppo pine in the north‐east of Algeria. Accordingly, this study focuses on modelling of the spatiotemporal distribution of the Aurasian Aleppo pine, by means of MaxEnt program. The models developed with MaxEnt showed good predictivity with AUC > 0.80 for the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios projected, respectively, for 2055 and 2085. The results showed that the annual thermal amplitude followed by altitude appear to be the main factors of the spatiotemporal distribution of Aleppo pine in the study area. Under current conditions, only 20% of the territory seems favourable to the presence of the Aleppo pine. However, future predictions expect an extension of the areas classified as “moderately favourable” to the Aleppo pine. In response to climate changes, the Aurasian Aleppo pine may display two contrasted tendencies: a progressive evolution in the north, and a regressive evolution in the south of the Aurès region as well as a displacement of suitable areas for Aleppo pine to the north.     

Will climate change impact the potential distribution of a native vine (Merremia peltata) which is behaving invasively in the Pacific region?

Merremia peltata is a species with uncertain status in the island nations of the Pacific region. It has been designated introduced and invasive in some countries whereas it is considered native in others. Recent increase in its abundance across some island landscapes have led to calls for its designation as an invasive species of environmental concern with biological control being suggested as a control strategy. Climate change will add to the complications of managing this species since changes in climate will influence its range limits. In this study, we develop a process‐oriented niche model of M. peltata using CLIMEX to investigate the impacts of climate change on its potential distribution. Information on the climatic requirements of M. peltata and its current geographic distribution were used to calibrate the model. The results indicate that under current climate, 273,132 km² of the land area in the region is climatically unsuitable or marginal for M. peltata whereas 664,524 km² is suitable to highly suitable. Under current climate, areas of climatic suitability for M. peltata were identified on the archipelagos of Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. By the end of the century, some archipelagos like Fiji, Hawaii, New Caledonia and Vanuatu will probably become more suitable while PNG and Solomon Islands become less suitable for M. peltata. The results can be used to inform biosecurity planning, management and conservation strategies on islands.     

Induced resistance to Mexican bean beetles in soybean: variation among genotypes and lack of correlation with constitutive resistance

Fourteen genotypes (varieties) of soybean (Glycine max) were screened for levels of induced resistance to Mexican bean beetle (Epilachna varivestis) damage, and a subset of 6 of those varieties was screened for levels of constitutive resistance to Mexican bean beetles. Experiments were carried out in the greenhouse, with damage imposed by Mexican bean beetle larvae, and levels of resistance measured by a choice test bioassay with adult beetles. We found significant variation among soybean genotypes in levels of both induced and constitutive resistance. We found no significant correlation between levels of induced and constitutive resistance measured in the same genotypes. We compare these results to past work on resistance in the soybean-Mexican bean beetle system, consider the implications of variation in both types of resistance for plant-herbivore interactions in agricultural and natural systems, and discuss the relationship between induced and constitutive resistance. Received: 30 November 1998 / Accepted: 25 June 1999     

Drought responses,phenotypic plasticity and survival of Mediterranean species in two different microclimatic sites

• Climate models predict a further drying of the Mediterranean summer. One way for plant species to persist during such climate changes is through acclimation. Here, we determine the extent to which trait plasticity in response to drought differs between species and between sites, and address the question whether there is a trade‐off between drought survival and phenotypic plasticity.
• Throughout the summer we measured physiological traits (photosynthesis – A_max, stomatal conductance – g_s, transpiration – E, leaf water potential – ψl) and structural traits (specific leaf area – SLA, leaf density – LD, leaf dry matter content – LDMC, leaf relative water content – LRWC) of leaves of eight woody species in two sites with slightly different microclimate (north‐ versus south‐facing slopes) in southern Spain. Plant recovery and survival was estimated after the summer drought period.
• We found high trait variability between species. In most variables, phenotypic plasticity was lower in the drier site. Phenotypic plasticity of SLA and LDMC correlated negatively with drought survival, which suggests a trade‐off between them. On the other hand, high phenotypic plasticity of SLA and LDMC was positively related to traits associated with rapid recovery and growth after the drought period.
• Although phenotypic plasticity is generally seen as favourable during stress conditions, here it seemed beneficial for favourable conditions. We propose that in environments with fluctuating drought periods there can be a trade‐off between drought survival and growth during favourable conditions. When climate become drier, species with high drought survival but low phenotypic plasticity might be selected for.

     

Effects of Rag1 aphid‐resistant soybean on mortality,development, and preference of brown marmorated stink bug

The brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys (Stål) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), poses a new threat to soybean, Glycine max (L.) Merrill (Fabaceae), production in the north central USA. As H. halys continues to spread and increase in abundance in the region, the interaction between H. halys and management tactics deployed for other pests must be determined. Currently, the soybean aphid, Aphis glycines Matsumura (Hemiptera: Aphididae), is the most abundant and damaging insect pest of soybean in the region. Aphid‐resistant soybean, mainly with the Rag1 gene, is commercially available for management of A. glycines. Here, experiments were performed to evaluate the effects of Rag1 aphid‐resistant soybean on the mortality, development, and preference of H. halys. In a no‐choice test, mortality of H. halys reared on Rag1 aphid‐resistant soybean pods was significantly lower than when reared on aphid‐susceptible soybean pods (28 vs. 53%). Development time, adult weight, and proportion females of surviving adults did not differ when reared on Rag1 aphid‐resistant or aphid‐susceptible soybean pods. In choice tests, H. halys exhibited a preference for Rag1 aphid‐resistant over aphid‐susceptible soybean pods after 4 h, but not after 24 h. Halyomorpha halys exhibited no preference when tested with vegetative‐stage or reproductive‐stage soybean plants. The preference by H. halys for Rag1 aphid‐resistant soybean pods and the decreased mortality when reared on these pods suggests that the use of Rag1 aphid‐resistant soybean may favor this emerging pest in the north central USA.     

Imported longhorned weevil (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) injury to soybean: physiological response and injury guild-level economic injury levels

The imported longhorned weevil, Calomycterus setarius Roelofs, is an occasional pest of soybean, Glycine max (L.), and can cause substantial defoliation of seedling soybean when the weevil is present in large numbers. Because weevil populations can reach high levels, the potential exists for significant seedling injury, so economic injury levels (EILs) are needed for imported longhorned weevil on seedling soybean. Because the bean leaf beetle, Cerotoma trifurcata (Forster), also is present on seedling soybean, injury by this insect should be included in EIL calculations. This study was conducted to (1) determine daily soybean consumption rates of imported longhorned weevil; (2) compare soybean injury responses between weevil injured and noninjured soybeans; and (3) develop multiple species EILs for imported longhorned weevil and bean leaf beetle. Field and laboratory studies were conducted in 1997 to determine weevil daily consumption rates. Field experiments were conducted in 1998 to examine physiological responses of soybean to weevil injury. Field and laboratory consumption rates were 0.16 and 0.21 cm2 per day, respectively. There were no significant differences in physiological responses (i.e., photosynthetic rates, stomatal conductance, and transpiration rates) between noninjured soybean leaflets (caged) and weevil-injured leaflets. Multiple-species EILs were developed for imported longhorned weevil and bean leaf beetle on VC through V3 soybean.