Projecting the distribution of forests in New England in response to climate change

Aim To project the distribution of three major forest types in the northeastern USA in response to expected climate change. Location The New England region of the United States. Methods We modelled the potential distribution of boreal conifer, northern deciduous hardwood and mixed oak–hickory forests using the process‐based BIOME4 vegetation model parameterized for regional forests under historic and projected future climate conditions. Projections of future climate were derived from three general circulation models forced by three global warming scenarios that span the range of likely anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Results Annual temperature in New England is projected to increase by 2.2–3.3 °C by 2041–70 and by 3.0–5.2 °C by 2071–99 with corresponding increases in precipitation of 4.7–9.5% and 6.4–11.4%, respectively. We project that regional warming will result in the loss of 71–100% of boreal conifer forest in New England by the late 21st century. The range of mixed oak–hickory forests will shift northward by 1.0–2.1 latitudinal degrees (c. 100–200 km) and will increase in area by 149–431% by the end of the 21st century. Northern deciduous hardwoods are expected to decrease in area by 26% and move upslope by 76 m on average. The upslope movement of the northern deciduous hardwoods and the increase in oak–hickory forests coincide with an approximate 556 m upslope retreat of the boreal conifer forest by 2071–99. In our simulations, rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations reduce the losses of boreal conifer forest in New England from expected losses based on climatic change alone. Main conclusion Projected climate warming in the 21st century is likely to cause the extensive loss of boreal conifer forests, reduce the extent of northern hardwood deciduous forests, and result in large increases of mixed oak–hickory forest in New England.     

Spatiotemporal variations of T/ET (the ratio of transpiration to evapotranspiration) in three forests of Eastern China

Evapotranspiration (ET), which is comprised by evaporation from soil surface (E), transpiration (T) and evaporation from the intercepted water by canopy (EI), plays an important role in maintaining global energy balance and regulating climate. Quantifying the spatiotemporal variations of T/ET (the ratio of T to ET) can improve our understandings on the role of vegetation ecophysiological processes in climate regulation. Using eddy covariance measurements at three forest ecosystems (Changbaishan temperate broad-leaved Korean pine mixed forest (CBS), Qianyanzhou subtropical coniferous plantation (QYZ) and Dinghushan subtropical evergreen mixed forest (DHS)) in north–south transect of Eastern China (NSTEC), we run the revised Shuttleworth–Wallace model (S–W model), validated its performance with the water vapor fluxes measured at two layers, and quantified the spatiotemporal variations of T/ET. The S–W model performed well in simulating ET and T/ET. The mean value of annual T/ET at three forests during the observation period all exceeded 0.6. The diurnal variation of canopy stomal conductance (G_c) dominated that of T/ET. The seasonal dynamics of T/ET was mainly shaped by that of leaf area index (LAI), vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and air temperature (T_a) through altering G_c and the portion that the energy absorbed by canopy (P_EC) at temperate forest (CBS), while the seasonal dynamics of T/ET at subtropical forests (QYZ and DHS) were mainly affected by T_a, net radiation, VPD, and soil water content through altering G_c and soil surface conductance (G_s). The variation of mean annual G_c governed the interannual varaition and spatial variation of T/ET. Therefore, forests in Eastern China played an important role in regulating climate through T and G_c primarily affected the spatial and temproal variations of the role of forest T in regulating climate.     

Persistent and pervasive compositional shifts of western boreal forest plots in Canada

Species compositional shifts have important consequences to biodiversity and ecosystem function and services to humanity. In boreal forests, compositional shifts from late‐successional conifers to early‐successional conifers and deciduous broadleaves have been postulated based on increased fire frequency associated with climate change truncating stand age‐dependent succession. However, little is known about how climate change has affected forest composition in the background between successive catastrophic fires in boreal forests. Using 1797 permanent sample plots from western boreal forests of Canada measured from 1958 to 2013, we show that after accounting for stand age‐dependent succession, the relative abundances of early‐successional deciduous broadleaves and early‐successional conifers have increased at the expense of late‐successional conifers with climate change. These background compositional shifts are persistent temporally, consistent across all forest stand ages and pervasive spatially across the region. Rising atmospheric CO₂ promoted early‐successional conifers and deciduous broadleaves, and warming increased early‐successional conifers at the expense of late‐successional conifers, but compositional shifts were not associated with climate moisture index. Our results emphasize the importance of climate change on background compositional shifts in the boreal forest and suggest further compositional shifts as rising CO₂ and warming will continue in the 21st century.     

海南三亚滨海雨林、半落叶季雨林到落叶季雨林的植物群落多样性及种间联结研究

为探索三亚沿海地区(自东向西)从滨海雨林过渡到半落叶季雨林、落叶季雨林的物种多样性及种间关系的变化趋势.该文采用植物群落学调查方法对三种植被类型进行群落调查,进一步使用物种丰富度指数(dGL)、Shannon-Wiener指数(H)、Simpson指数(P)和Pielou均匀度指数(E)来表征各植被类型的物种多样性水平...     

Forests growing under dry conditions have higher hydrological resilience to drought than do more humid forests

More frequent and intense droughts are projected during the next century, potentially changing the hydrological balances in many forested catchments. Although the impacts of droughts on forest functionality have been vastly studied, little attention has been given to studying the effect of droughts on forest hydrology. Here, we use the Budyko framework and two recently introduced Budyko metrics (deviation and elasticity) to study the changes in the water yields (rainfall minus evapotranspiration) of forested catchments following a climatic drought (2006–2010) in pine forests distributed along a rainfall gradient (P = 280–820 mm yr^?1) in the Eastern Mediterranean (aridity factor = 0.17–0.56). We use a satellite‐based model and meteorological information to calculate the Budyko metrics. The relative water yield ranged from 48% to 8% (from the rainfall) in humid to dry forests and was mainly associated with rainfall amount (increasing with increased rainfall amount) and bedrock type (higher on hard bedrocks). Forest elasticity was larger in forests growing under drier conditions, implying that drier forests have more predictable responses to drought, according to the Budyko framework, compared to forests growing under more humid conditions. In this context, younger forests were shown more elastic than older forests. Dynamic deviation, which is defined as the water yield departure from the Budyko curve, was positive in all forests (i.e., less‐than‐expected water yields according to Budyko's curve), increasing with drought severity, suggesting lower hydrological resistance to drought in forests suffering from larger rainfall reductions. However, the dynamic deviation significantly decreased in forests that experienced relatively cooler conditions during the drought period. Our results suggest that forests growing under permanent dry conditions might develop a range of hydrological and eco‐physiological adjustments to drought leading to higher hydrological resilience. In the context of predicted climate change, such adjustments are key factors in sustaining forested catchments in water‐limited regions.     

Negative impacts of high temperatures on growth of black spruce forests intensify with the anticipated climate warming

An increasing number of studies conclude that water limitations and heat stress may hinder the capacity of black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) trees, a dominant species of Canada's boreal forests, to grow and assimilate atmospheric carbon. However, there is currently no scientific consensus on the future of these forests over the next century in the context of widespread climate warming. The large spatial extent of black spruce forests across the Canadian boreal forest and associated variability in climate, demography, and site conditions pose challenges for projecting future climate change responses. Here we provide an evaluation of the impacts of climate warming and drying, as well as increasing [CO₂], on the aboveground productivity of black spruce forests across Canada south of 60°N for the period 1971 to 2100. We use a new extensive network of tree‐ring data obtained from Canada's National Forest Inventory, spatially explicit simulations of net primary productivity (NPP) and its drivers, and multivariate statistical modeling. We found that soil water availability is a significant driver of black spruce interannual variability in productivity across broad areas of the western to eastern Canadian boreal forest. Interannual variability in productivity was also found to be driven by autotrophic respiration in the warmest regions. In most regions, the impacts of soil water availability and respiration on interannual variability in productivity occurred during the phase of carbohydrate accumulation the year preceding tree‐ring formation. Results from projections suggest an increase in the importance of soil water availability and respiration as limiting factors on NPP over the next century due to warming, but this response may vary to the extent that other factors such as carbon dioxide fertilization, and respiration acclimation to high temperature, contribute to dampening these limitations.     

Tropical seasonal forests in monsson Asia: With emphasis on continental southeast Asia

This paper is intended to provide a brief review of the tropical seasonal forest, one type of the tropical moist forests in monsoon Asia. It will also focus on and summarise issues of current concern in relation to their depletion and global environmental issues. Tropical moist forests occur in the rainy tropical and monsoon tropical climate types. The tropical moist evergreen forest or the tropical rain forest, which account for two-thirds of the tropical moist forests are rich in biodiversity and contain valuable tropical hardwood. The tropical moist deciduous forest or the tropical seasonal forest which lie along the fringes of tropical rain forest, are less complex than the tropical rain forest and have more distinct wet and dry periods. Broadleaved deciduous trees of the genera Tectona, Shorea, and Dipterocarpus are predominantly in this forest type. Currently estimates have found that more than 17 million hectares of forest mainly tropical moist forests are being lost each year. There is a widespread recognition that agriculture and the burning of tropical moist forests contribute to global warming but to a much lesser extent than the combustion of fossil fuels and industrial activities in the developed world.     

Sensitivity of Siberian larch forests to climate change

The Northern Hemisphere's boreal forests, particularly the Siberian boreal forest, may have a strong effect on Earth's climate through changes in dominant vegetation and associated regional surface albedo. We show that warmer climate will likely convert Siberia's deciduous larch (Larix spp.) to evergreen conifer forests, and thus decrease regional surface albedo. The dynamic vegetation model, FAREAST, simulates Russian boreal forest composition and was used to explore the feedback between climate change and forest composition at continental, regional, and local scales. FAREAST was used to simulate the impact of changes in temperature and precipitation on total and genus‐level biomass at sites across Siberia and the Russian Far East (RFE), and for six high‐ and low‐diversity regions. Model runs with and without European Larch (Larix decidua) included in the available species pool were compared to assess the potential for this species, which is adapted to warmer climate conditions, to mitigate the effects of climate change, especially the shift to evergreen dominance. At the continental scale, when temperature is increased, larch‐dominated sites become vulnerable to early replacement by evergreen conifers. At the regional and local scales, the diverse Amur region of the RFE does not show a strong response to climate change, but the low‐diversity regions in central and southern Siberia have an abrupt vegetation shift from larch‐dominated forest to evergreen‐conifer forest in response to increased temperatures. The introduction of L. decidua prevents the collapse of larch in these low‐diversity areas and thus mitigates the response to warming. Using contemporary MODIS albedo measurements, we determined that a conversion from larch to evergreen stands in low‐diversity regions of southern Siberia would generate a local positive radiative forcing of 5.1±2.6 W m^?2. This radiative heating would reinforce the warming projected to occur in the area under climate change.     

亚热带不同次生林地凋落物持水特性及季节变化

为了解亚热带不同演替阶段次生林地的凋落物持水特性规律,选取湖南大山冲森林公园保存完好的三种亚热带典型次生林地,按两月一次采集新近的凋落物并采用水浸泡法测定凋落物持水量、持水率和吸水速率,对比分析不同森林类型凋落物持水性差异及其与凋落物碳氮凋落量的关系。结果表明：（1）三种次生林地凋落物量及组成均表现出特有的变化规律。针叶林和常绿阔叶林凋落物量以夏季5-9月最大,落叶阔叶林凋落物则以春、秋两个季节最大;（2）三种次生林地凋落物的饱和持水量、半饱和时间以及与水亲和力均呈现显著季节性变化特征。针叶林凋落物饱和持水量在5-7月达到最高为（59.68±2.91） g/m²,常绿阔叶林凋落物饱和持水量则在9月达到最高,落叶阔叶林凋落物饱和持水量在11月份达到最高为（190.60±8.81） g/m²;三种次生林凋落物的半饱和时间均以11月份为最低,且落叶阔叶林凋落物半饱和时间比其他两种次生林地更低,全年平均（0.62±0.12） h;凋落物的水亲和力系数,全年均以落叶阔叶林最大为142.72±26.12;（3）落叶阔叶林凋落物饱和持水率全年显著高于其他两种次生林（P<0.01）,且针叶林和落叶阔叶林凋落物饱和持水率均在11月份达到最大值;（4）落叶阔叶林凋落物吸水速率A值显著低于其他两种次生林（P<0.01）,而针叶林凋落物吸水速率系数B值显著高于其他两种次生林（P<0.01）;（5）凋落物饱和持水量与凋落物水亲和力和饱和持水率存在显著正相关关系,与凋落物凋落碳氮总量同样存在显著正相关关系;凋落物饱和持水率与凋落物半饱和时间、吸水速率系数A和B值存在显著负相关,与凋落物碳含量和C/N比极显著负相关,与凋落物氮含量极显著正相关（P<0.01）。综上,不同次生林类型凋落物持水性存在显著差异,凋落物持水性与凋落物碳氮量存在显著联系,该研究为深入探讨森林生态环境效应提供了支撑,丰富了森林凋落物持水特性的研究理论。     

AN ECOLOGICAL COMPARISON OF UPLAND DECIDUOUS AND EVERGREEN FORESTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS

Scrub evergreen forests cover most of the cedar breaks region of the Edwards Plateau of central Texas; however, limited strips of deciduous forests are found on north-facing slopes just below the limestone caprock. Dominant species occurring in the deciduous forests in descending order of importance include Quercus texana, Q. glaucoides, Juniperus ashei, Diospyros texana, Prunus serotina, Aesculus pavia, Juglans nigra, and Fraxinus texensis. Nineteen woody species were found in the deciduous forests. Forty-eight percent of the species were exclusive to the deciduous forest community. The deciduous forests had a statistically greater number of species/stand and a higher density. The deciduous species found in the strip forests had combined relative density, dominance and importance values of 59, 93 and 72%, respectively. Dominants in the evergreen forest were J. ashei and D. texana, which had relative density, dominance, and importance values totaling 90, 97 and 93%, respectively. Total dominance was the same for both communities; however, J. ashei dominance was 20 times higher in the evergreen forests. Soils of the deciduous forests were significantly deeper and rockier. Also, these soils had higher organic contents and water retention capacities. The potential field capacity (PFC) was 3.47 times higher for the deciduous forest soils resulting in a 2.36-fold increase in the water availability index (WAI). Factors regulating distribution and composition of the deciduous forest communities appear to be insolation and PFC, resulting in part from differences in topographic position.     

On the difference in the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 between deciduous and evergreen forests in the southeastern United States

The southeastern United States is experiencing a rapid regional increase in the ratio of pine to deciduous forest ecosystems at the same time it is experiencing changes in climate. This study is focused on exploring how these shifts will affect the carbon sink capacity of southeastern US forests, which we show here are among the strongest carbon sinks in the continental United States. Using eight‐year‐long eddy covariance records collected above a hardwood deciduous forest (HW) and a pine plantation (PP) co‐located in North Carolina, USA, we show that the net ecosystem exchange of CO₂ (NEE) was more variable in PP, contributing to variability in the difference in NEE between the two sites (ΔNEE) at a range of timescales, including the interannual timescale. Because the variability in evapotranspiration (ET) was nearly identical across the two sites over a range of timescales, the factors that determined the variability in ΔNEE were dominated by those that tend to decouple NEE from ET. One such factor was water use efficiency, which changed dramatically in response to drought and also tended to increase monotonically in nondrought years (P < 0.001 in PP). Factors that vary over seasonal timescales were strong determinants of the NEE in the HW site; however, seasonality was less important in the PP site, where significant amounts of carbon were assimilated outside of the active season, representing an important advantage of evergreen trees in warm, temperate climates. Additional variability in the fluxes at long‐time scales may be attributable to slowly evolving factors, including canopy structure and increases in dormant season air temperature. Taken together, study results suggest that the carbon sink in the southeastern United States may become more variable in the future, owing to a predicted increase in drought frequency and an increase in the fractional cover of southern pines.     

The impacts and implications of an intensifying fire regime on Alaskan boreal forest composition and albedo

Climate warming and drying are modifying the fire dynamics of many boreal forests, moving them towards a regime with a higher frequency of extreme fire years characterized by large burns of high severity. Plot‐scale studies indicate that increased burn severity favors the recruitment of deciduous trees in the initial years following fire. Consequently, a set of biophysical effects of burn severity on postfire boreal successional trajectories at decadal timescales have been hypothesized. Prominent among these are a greater cover of deciduous tree species in intermediately aged stands after more severe burning, with associated implications for carbon and energy balances. Here we investigate whether the current vegetation composition of interior Alaska supports this hypothesis. A chronosequence of six decades of vegetation regrowth following fire was created using a database of burn scars, an existing forest biomass map, and maps of albedo and the deciduous fraction of vegetation that we derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery. The deciduous fraction map depicted the proportion of aboveground biomass in deciduous vegetation, derived using a RandomForest algorithm trained with field data sets (n=69, 71% variance explained). Analysis of the difference Normalized Burn Ratio, a remotely sensed index commonly used as an indicator of burn severity, indicated that burn size and ignition date can provide a proxy of burn severity for historical fires. LIDAR remote sensing and a bioclimatic model of evergreen forest distribution were used to further refine the stratification of the current landscape by burn severity. Our results show that since the 1950s, more severely burned areas in interior Alaska have produced a vegetation cohort that is characterized by greater deciduous biomass. We discuss the importance of this shift in vegetation composition due to climate‐induced changes in fire severity for carbon sequestration in forest biomass and surface reflectance (albedo), among other feedbacks to climate.     

Sensitivity of tropical forests to climate change in the humid tropics of north Queensland

An analysis using an artificial neural network model suggests that the tropical forests of north Queensland are highly sensitive to climate change within the range that is likely to occur in the next 50–100 years. The distribution and extent of environments suitable for 15 structural forest types were estimated, using the model, in 10 climate scenarios that include warming up to 1°C and altered precipitation from –10% to +20%. Large changes in the distribution of forest environments are predicted with even minor climate change. Increased precipitation favours some rainforest types, whereas decreased rainfall increases the area suitable for forests dominated by sclerophyllous genera such as Eucalyptus and Allocasuarina. Rainforest environments respond differentially to increased temperature. The area of lowland mesophyll vine forest environments increases with warming, whereas upland complex notophyll vine forest environments respond either positively or negatively to temperature, depending on precipitation. Highland rainforest environments (simple notophyll and simple microphyll vine fern forests and thickets), the habitat for many of the region’s endemic vertebrates, decrease by 50% with only a 1°C warming. Estimates of the stress to present forests resulting from spatial shifts of forest environments (assuming no change in the present forest distributions) indicate that several forest types would be highly stressed by a 1°C warming and most are sensitive to any change in rainfall. Most forests will experience climates in the near future that are more appropriate to some other structural forest type. Thus, the propensity for ecological change in the region is high and, in the long term, significant shifts in the extent and spatial distribution of forests are likely. A detailed spatial analysis of the sensitivity to climate change indicates that the strongest effects of climate change will be experienced at boundaries between forest classes and in ecotonal communities between rainforest and open woodland.     

Multiscale modeling of spring phenology across Deciduous Forests in the Eastern United States

Phenological events, such as bud burst, are strongly linked to ecosystem processes in temperate deciduous forests. However, the exact nature and magnitude of how seasonal and interannual variation in air temperatures influence phenology is poorly understood, and model‐based phenology representations fail to capture local‐ to regional‐scale variability arising from differences in species composition. In this paper, we use a combination of surface meteorological data, species composition maps, remote sensing, and ground‐based observations to estimate models that better represent how community‐level species composition affects the phenological response of deciduous broadleaf forests to climate forcing at spatial scales that are typically used in ecosystem models. Using time series of canopy greenness from repeat digital photography, citizen science data from the USA National Phenology Network, and satellite remote sensing‐based observations of phenology, we estimated and tested models that predict the timing of spring leaf emergence across five different deciduous broadleaf forest types in the eastern United States. Specifically, we evaluated two different approaches: (i) using species‐specific models in combination with species composition information to ‘upscale’ model predictions and (ii) using repeat digital photography of forest canopies that observe and integrate the phenological behavior of multiple representative species at each camera site to calibrate a single model for all deciduous broadleaf forests. Our results demonstrate variability in cumulative forcing requirements and photoperiod cues across species and forest types, and show how community composition influences phenological dynamics over large areas. At the same time, the response of different species to spatial and interannual variation in weather is, under the current climate regime, sufficiently similar that the generic deciduous forest model based on repeat digital photography performed comparably to the upscaled species‐specific models. More generally, results from this analysis demonstrate how in situ observation networks and remote sensing data can be used to synergistically calibrate and assess regional parameterizations of phenology in models.     

A Canopy Shift in Interior Alaskan Boreal Forests: Consequences for Above- and Belowground Carbon and Nitrogen Pools during Post-fire Succession

Global change models predict that high-latitude boreal forests will become increasingly susceptible to fire activity as climate warms, possibly causing a positive feedback to warming through fire-driven emissions of CO₂ into the atmosphere. However, fire-climate feedbacks depend on forest regrowth and carbon (C) accumulation over the post-fire successional interval, which is influenced by nitrogen (N) availability. To improve our understanding of post-fire C and N accumulation patterns in boreal forests, we evaluated above- and belowground C and N pools within 70 stands throughout interior Alaska, a region predicted to undergo a shift in canopy dominance as fire severity increases. Stands represented gradients in age and successional trajectory, from black spruce (Picea mariana) self-replacement to species replacement by deciduous species of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) and Alaska paper birch (Betula neoalaskana). Stands undergoing deciduous trajectories stored proportionally more of their C and N in aboveground stemwood and had 5–7 times faster rates of aboveground net primary productivity of trees compared to stands undergoing a black spruce trajectory, which stored more of their C and N in the soil organic layer (SOL), a thick layer of mostly undecomposed mosses. Thus, as successional trajectories shift, total C and N pool sizes will remain relatively unchanged, but there will be a trade-off in pool location and a potential increase in C and N longevity due to decreased flammability and decomposition rates of deciduous stemwood. Despite often warmer, drier conditions in deciduous compared to black spruce stands, deciduous stemwood has a C:N around 10 times higher than the black spruce SOL and often remains standing for many years with reduced exposure to fungal decomposers. Thus, a fire-driven shift in successional trajectories could cause a negative feedback to climate warming because of increased pool longevity in deciduous trajectories.     

Chronic water stress reduces tree growth and the carbon sink of deciduous hardwood forests

Predicted decreases in water availability across the temperate forest biome have the potential to offset gains in carbon (C) uptake from phenology trends, rising atmospheric CO₂, and nitrogen deposition. While it is well established that severe droughts reduce the C sink of forests by inducing tree mortality, the impacts of mild but chronic water stress on forest phenology and physiology are largely unknown. We quantified the C consequences of chronic water stress using a 13‐year record of tree growth (n = 200 trees), soil moisture, and ecosystem C balance at the Morgan–Monroe State Forest (MMSF) in Indiana, and a regional 11‐year record of tree growth (n > 300 000 trees) and water availability for the 20 most dominant deciduous broadleaf tree species across the eastern and midwestern USA. We show that despite ~26 more days of C assimilation by trees at the MMSF, increasing water stress decreased the number of days of wood production by ~42 days over the same period, reducing the annual accrual of C in woody biomass by 41%. Across the deciduous forest region, water stress induced similar declines in tree growth, particularly for water‐demanding ‘mesophytic’ tree species. Given the current replacement of water‐stress adapted ‘xerophytic’ tree species by mesophytic tree species, we estimate that chronic water stress has the potential to decrease the C sink of deciduous forests by up to 17% (0.04 Pg C yr^?1) in the coming decades. This reduction in the C sink due to mesophication and chronic water stress is equivalent to an additional 1–3 days of global C emissions from fossil fuel burning each year. Collectively, our results indicate that regional declines in water availability may offset the growth‐enhancing effects of other global changes and reduce the extent to which forests ameliorate climate warming.     

Phenology model from surface meteorology does not capture satellite-based greenup estimations

Seasonal temperature change in temperate forests is known to trigger the start of spring growth, and both interannual and spatial variations in spring onset have been tied to climatic variability. Satellite dates are increasingly being used in phenology studies, but to date that has been little effort to link remotely sensed phenology to surface climate records. In this research, we use a two‐parameter spring warming phenology model to explore the relationship between climate and satellite‐based phenology. We employ daily air temperature records between 2000 and 2005 for 171 National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration weather stations located throughout New England to construct spring warming models predicting the onset of spring, as defined by the date of half‐maximum greenness (D₅₀) in deciduous forests as detected from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer. The best spring warming model starts accumulating temperatures after March 20th and when average daily temperatures exceed 5°C. The accumulated heat sums [heating degree day (HDD)] required to reach D₅₀ range from 150 to 300 degree days over New England, with the highest requirements to the south and in coastal regions. We test the ability of the spring warming model to predict phenology against a null photoperiod model (average date of onset). The spring warming model offers little improvement on the null model when predicting D₅₀. Differences between the efficacies of the two models are expressed as the ‘climate sensitivity ratio’ (CSR), which displays coherent spatial patterns. Our results suggest that northern (beech‐maple‐birch) and central (oak‐hickory) hardwood forests respond to climate differently, particularly with disparate requirements for the minimum temperature necessary to begin spring growth (3 and 6°C, respectively). We conclude that spatial location and species composition are critical factors for predicting the phenological response to climate change: satellite observations cannot be linked directly to temperature variability if species or community compositions are unknown.     

The use of open-top chambers in forests for evaluating warming effects on herbaceous understorey plants

Open-top chambers (OTCs) are widely used experimental warming devices in open-field ecosystems such as tundra and alpine heath. However, knowledge of their performance in temperate deciduous forest ecosystems is largely lacking. The application of OTCs in forests might become important in the future since the effects of climate warming on growth, reproduction, and future distribution of understorey forest herbs have rarely been investigated. Therefore, polycarbonate OTCs covered with (OTCs+GF) and without permeable polypropylene GardenFleece (OTCs−GF) were installed in a temperate deciduous forest to create an experimental warming gradient. Short-term responses in phenology, growth, and reproduction of a model understorey forest herb (Anemone nemorosa L.) to OTC installation were determined. In a second growing season, an in-depth study of multiple abiotic conditions inside OTCs−GF was performed. Both OTCs+GF and OTCs−GF raised air and soil temperature in a realistic manner (ca. +0.4°C to +1.15°C), but OTCs−GF only in the leafless period (up to +1.5°C monthly average soil temperature). The early flowering forest herb A. nemorosa also showed a clear phenotypic response to OTC installation. Based on these facts and the large ecological drawbacks associated with OTCs+GF (mostly in connection with a higher relative air humidity and a lower light quantity) and very modest abiotic changes in OTCs−GF, we encourage the use of OTCs−GF in deciduous forest ecosystems for evaluating climate-warming effects on early flowering understorey forest herbs. There is also a potential to use this warming method on later flowering species, but this needs further research.     

Composition,dynamics and disturbance regime of temperate deciduous forests in Monsoon Asia

Temperate deciduous forests in Monsoon Asia are classified into three forest types which differ in floristic composition, dynamics and disturbance regime. The cool temperate mixed deciduous broadleaf/conifer forest, dominated by Quercus spp. (mainly Q. mongolica or Q. crispula) and conifers, is distributed in northern parts of the temperate zone. The cool temperate deciduous forest, dominated by Fagus crenata, is distributed in Honshu, Japan under a humid climate through the year. The warm temperate deciduous forest dominated by Quercus spp. (mainly Q. acutissima or Q. serrata) occurs in the continental areas, the Korean Peninsula, and the Pacific Ocean side of Japan. The species diversity of cool temperate deciduous forest was lower than the other two types because of the intensive dominance of Fagus crenata. The disturbance regimes also varies among the three types; small scale treefall gaps are prevailing in the cool temperate deciduous forest, while larger scaled disturbances are important in the other two forest types. Fire seems to be important in the warm temperate deciduous forest, and both fire and large scale blowdowm seems important in the cool temperate mixed broadleaf/conifer forest. These differences in forest composition and disturbance regimes associated with climatic conditions and ancient human impacts have a close analogy with the Northeastern Hardwood forests in North America.     

A global assessment of forest surface albedo and its relationships with climate and atmospheric nitrogen deposition

We present a global assessment of the relationships between the short‐wave surface albedo of forests, derived from the MODIS satellite instrument product at 0.5° spatial resolution, with simulated atmospheric nitrogen deposition rates (N_dep), and climatic variables (mean annual temperature T_m and total annual precipitation P), compiled at the same spatial resolution. The analysis was performed on the following five forest plant functional types (PFTs): evergreen needle‐leaf forests (ENF); evergreen broad‐leaf forests (EBF); deciduous needle‐leaf forests (DNF); deciduous broad‐leaf forests (DBF); and mixed‐forests (MF). Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied in the exploratory analysis to assess the functional nature of short‐wave surface albedo relations to environmental variables. The analysis showed evident correlations of albedo with environmental predictors when data were pooled across PFTs: T_m and N_dep displayed a positive relationship with forest albedo, while a negative relationship was detected with P. These correlations are primarily due to surface albedo differences between conifer and broad‐leaf species, and different species geographical distributions. However, the analysis performed within individual PFTs, strengthened by attempts to select ‘pure’ pixels in terms of species composition, showed significant correlations with annual precipitation and nitrogen deposition, pointing toward the potential effect of environmental variables on forest surface albedo at the ecosystem level. Overall, our global assessment emphasizes the importance of elucidating the ecological mechanisms that link environmental conditions and forest canopy properties for an improved parameterization of surface albedo in climate models.