Dendroecological analysis of defoliator outbreaks on Nothofagus pumilio and their relation to climate variability in the Patagonian Andes

In the temperate forests of the southern Andes, Nothofagus pumilio, the dominant species of the most extensive forest type, experiences severe defoliation caused by caterpillars of the Ormiscodes genus (Lepidoptera: Saturniidae). This study uses tree rings to reconstruct the history of Ormiscodes outbreaks for the 1850–2005 period and examines relationships between outbreaks and climate variability. We used local climate records to compare outbreak–climate relationships in the northern Patagonian Andes (c. 41°S) and the cooler southern Patagonian Andes (c. 49°S). We also examined relationships between outbreak events and regional climate variability driven by variability in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation. Although relationships between Ormiscodes outbreaks and climate proved to be complex, in northern Patagonia defoliation events are associated with drier and warmer than average growing seasons. Warming and drying trends in Patagonia during the latter part of the 20th century have been linked to a positive trend in SAM. During the post‐1976 period of accelerated warming in Patagonia, widespread defoliation outbreaks have occurred in both northern and southern Patagonia but the increase in frequency of events has been greater in the south. In southern Patagonia the increases in frequency of outbreaks in the late 20th century appear to be unprecedented over the c. 150 year tree‐ring record of reconstructed outbreaks. These results are consistent with the greater magnitude of recent warming in southern Patagonia, and suggest that under predicted warmer and drier climates in the 21st century, defoliator outbreaks may continue to increase in frequency. This study is the first systematic reconstruction of past insect outbreaks in South America and provides a preliminary understanding of how climate variability affects defoliator outbreaks in Patagonian Nothofagus forests.     

Climate change and outbreaks of the geometrids Operophtera brumata and Epirrita autumnata in subarctic birch forest: evidence of a recent outbreak range expansion

1. Range expansions mediated by recent climate warming have been documented for many insect species, including some important forest pests. However, whether climate change also influences the eruptive dynamics of forest pest insects, and hence the ecological and economical consequences of outbreaks, is largely unresolved. 2. Using historical outbreak records covering more than a century, we document recent outbreak range expansions of two species of cyclic geometrid moth, Operophtera brumata Bkh. (winter moth) and Epirrita autumnata L. (autumnal moth), in subarctic birch forest of northern Fennoscandia. The two species differ with respect to cold tolerance, and show strikingly different patterns in their recent outbreak range expansion. 3. We show that, during the past 15-20 years, the less cold-tolerant species O. brumata has experienced a pronounced north-eastern expansion into areas previously dominated by E. autumnata outbreaks. Epirrita autumnata, on the other hand, has expanded the region in which it exhibits regular outbreaks into the coldest, most continental areas. Our findings support the suggestion that recent climate warming in the region is the most parsimonious explanation for the observed patterns. 4. The presence of O. brumata outbreaks in regions previously affected solely by E. autumnata outbreaks is likely to increase the effective duration of local outbreaks, and hence have profound implications for the subarctic birch forest ecosystem.     

气候变化对中国农作物虫害发生的影响

基于1961—2010年全国农区527个气象站点气象资料、全国病虫害资料以及农作物种植面积等资料,对全国虫害发生面积与气象因子采用相关分析法,分析了气象要素变化对虫害发生的影响。结果表明:气候变化背景下,年平均温度、平均降水强度分别以0.27℃.10a-1、0.24mm.(d.10a)-1的速度增长,年日照时数以47.40h.10a-1的速度减小;年降水量增长速率为0.14mm.10a-1,但波动较大;虫害发生面积率距平与平均温度、平均降水强度距平呈显著正相关,平均温度、平均降水强度分别每增加1℃、1mm.d-1,虫害发生面积率增加0.648、0.713,虫害发生面积将增加0.96、1.06亿hm2次;虫害发生面积率距平与年日照时数距平呈显著负相关,其每降低100h,虫害发生面积率增加0.40,虫害发生面积将增加0.59亿hm2次;总体上,虫害发生面积率距平与年降水量距平的关系不明显。虫害发生面积率距平与年平均小雨量、微雨量雨日数、小雨量雨日数距平呈显著负相关,3个因子分别每减少1mm、1d、1d,虫害发生面积率增加0.014、0.066、0.052,发生面积将增加0.02、0.10、0.08亿hm2次。     

The implications of predicted climate change for insect pests in the UK, with emphasis on non-indigenous species

Recent estimates for global warming predict increases in global mean surface air temperatures (relative to 1990) of between 1 and 3.5 °C, by 2100. The impact of such changes on agricultural systems in mid- to high-latitude regions are predicted to be less severe than in low-latitude regions, and possibly even beneficial, although the influence of pests and diseases is rarely taken into account. Most studies have concluded that insect pests will generally become more abundant as temperatures increase, through a number of inter-related processes, including range extensions and phenological changes, as well as increased rates of population development, growth, migration and over-wintering. A gradual, continuing rise in atmospheric CO₂ will affect pest species directly (i.e. the CO₂ fertilization effect) and indirectly (via interactions with other environmental variables). However, individual species responses to elevated CO₂ vary: consumption rates of insect herbivores generally increase, but this does not necessarily compensate fully for reduced leaf nitrogen. The consequent effects on performance are strongly mediated via the host species. Some recent experiments under elevated CO₂ have suggested that aphids may become more serious pests, although other studies have discerned no significant effects on sap-feeding homopterans. However, few, if any of these experiments have fully considered the effects on pest population dynamics. Climate change is also considered from the perspective of changes in the distribution and abundance of species and communities. Marked changes in the distribution of well-documented species – including Odonata, Orthoptera and Lepidoptera – in north-western Europe, in response to unusually hot summers, provide useful indications of the potential effects of climate change. Migrant pests are expected to respond more quickly to climate change than plants, and may be able to colonize newly available crops/habitats. Range expansions, and the removal of edge effects, could result in the increased abundance of species presently near the northern limits of their ranges in the UK. However, barriers to range expansions, or shifts, may include biotic (competition, predation, parasitism and disease), as well as abiotic, factors. Climatic phenomena, ecosystem processes and human activities are interactive and interdependent, making long-term predictions extremely tenuous. Nevertheless, it appears prudent to prepare for the possibility of increases in the diversity and abundance of pest species in the UK, in the context of climate change.     

The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition

Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9‐year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km², that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle overwinter survival and provides evidence that the increasing trend in minimum winter temperatures over time in North America is an important driver of increased mountain pine beetle reproduction across the region. Although we demonstrate a consistent effect of warmer minimum winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle reproductive rates that is evident at the landscape and regional scales, this effect is overwhelmed by the effect of competition for resources within trees at the site level. Our results suggest that detection of the effects of a warming climate on bark beetle populations at small spatial scales may be difficult without accounting for negative density dependence due to competition for resources.     

Population dynamics in changing environments: the case of an eruptive forest pest species

In recent decades we have seen rapid and co‐occurring changes in landscape structure, species distributions and even climate as consequences of human activity. Such changes affect the dynamics of the interaction between major forest pest species, such as bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae), and their host trees. Normally breeding mostly in broken or severely stressed spruce; at high population densities some bark beetle species can colonise and kill healthy trees on scales ranging from single trees in a stand to multi‐annual landscape‐wide outbreaks. In Eurasia, the largest outbreaks are caused by the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus (Linnaeus), which is common and shares a wide distribution with its main host, Norway spruce (Picea abies Karst.). A large literature is now available, from which this review aims to synthesize research relevant for the population dynamics of I. typographus and co‐occurring species under changing conditions. We find that spruce bark beetle population dynamics tend to be metastable, but that mixed‐species and age‐heterogeneous forests with good site‐matching tend to be less susceptible to large‐scale outbreaks. While large accumulations of logs should be removed and/or debarked before the next swarming period, intensive removal of all coarse dead wood may be counterproductive, as it reduces the diversity of predators that in some areas may play a role in keeping I. typographus populations below the outbreak threshold, and sanitary logging frequently causes edge effects and root damage, reducing the resistance of remaining trees. It is very hard to predict the outcome of interspecific interactions due to invading beetle species or I. typographus establishing outside its current range, as they can be of varying sign and strength and may fluctuate depending on environmental factors and population phase. Most research indicates that beetle outbreaks will increase in frequency and magnitude as temperature, wind speed and precipitation variability increases, and that mitigating forestry practices should be adopted as soon as possible considering the time lags involved.     

Potential impacts of climate change on patterns of insect herbivory on understorey plant species: A transplant experiment

Species‐specific responses to climate change will lead to changes in species interactions across multiple trophic levels. Interactions between plants and their insect herbivores, in particular, may become increasingly disrupted if mobile herbivores respond more rapidly to climatic change than their associated host plants. We present a multispecies transplant experiment aimed at assessing potential climatic impacts on patterns of leaf herbivory. Four shrubby understorey plant species were transplanted outside their native range into a climate 2.5°C warmer in annual mean temperature. After 12 months, we assessed the types and amount of herbivore leaf damage, compared with plants transplanted to a control site within their native range. The overall amount of foliage loss to herbivores ranged from approximately 3–10% across species and sites, a range consistent with most estimates of leaf loss in other studies. The most common types of leaf damage were sucking and chewing and this pattern was consistent for all four plant species at all sites. There were no significant differences in levels and patterns of herbivory between control and warm sites for three out of four plant species. This suggests that with moderate climate warming, most herbivory will continue to be dominated by chewers and suckers, and that the overall level of foliage loss will be similar to that experienced presently.     

Predicting insect pest status under climate change scenarios: combining experimental data and population dynamics modelling

Climate change could profoundly affect the status of agricultural insect pests. Several approaches have been used to predict how the temperature and precipitation changes could modify the abundances, distributions or status of insect pests. In this article it is demonstrated how the use of simple models, such as Ricker’s classic equation, including a mechanistic representation of the influence of exogenous forces may improve our predictive capacity of the dynamic behaviour of insect populations. Using data from classical experiments in population ecology, we evaluate how temperature and humidity influence the density of two stored grain insect pest, Tribolium confusum and Callosobruchus chinensis, and then, using the A2 and B2 scenarios proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the previous modelling, we develop predictions over the future pest status of T. confusum along South America austral region, and specifically for eight cities in the continental Chilean territory. Tribolium confusum and C. chinensis show qualitatively different responses to the exogenous forcing of temperature and humidity, respectively. Our simulations predict a change in the equilibrium density of T. confusum from 10 to 14% under the moderate B2 scenario and 12 to 22% under the extreme A2 scenario to the period, 2071–2100. Both results imply a severe change in the pest status of this species in the southern region. This study illustrates how the use of theoretically based models may improve our predictive capacity. This approach provides an opportunity to examine the link between invasive species and climate change and how new suitable habitat may become available for species whose niche space is limited in some degree by climatic conditions. The use of different scenarios allows us to examine the sensitivity of the predictions, and to improve the communication with the general public and decision‐makers; a key aspect in integrated pest management.     

气候变化对阔叶红松林潜在地理分布区的影响

物种地理分布主要取决于它对气候、地形等环境因子的适应性。基于22个环境因子和阔叶红松林的4类主要建群树种——红松、紫椴、水曲柳和蒙古栎的地理分布数据,采用最大熵模型模拟了阔叶红松林的潜在分布区域,并分析决定阔叶红松林地理分布的主要气候和地形因子,最后利用政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)发布的3种排放场景(SRES-A2、SRES-A1B、SRES-B1)下2020、2050、2080年的气候数据预测阔叶红松林的未来潜在分布区。结果表明:各树种的受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC值)都大于0.8,说明模型有很好的预测能力;影响阔叶红松林分布的主导环境因子是年降雨量、季节性降雨量、海拔、年平均温度、最湿季度的平均温度。在基准气候条件下,阔叶红松林的高度适宜分布区主要分布在长白山和小兴安岭地区,占研究区总面积的11.69%,低度适宜区面积、不适宜区面积分别占研究区总面积的23%和65.31%。模型预测结果显示,未来在A2、A1B和B1气候情景下,阔叶红松林高度适宜区的南界与北界都向北移动,其面积有缩减的趋势,而低度适宜区的面积有增加的趋势。     

Fecundity of the autumnal moth depends on pooled geometrid abundance without a time lag: implications for cyclic population dynamics

1. The abundance and fecundity-related body size variation of the cyclic autumnal moth Epirrita autumnata were monitored from the early increase phase and throughout the outbreak to the end of the density decline in northernmost Norway during 1999-2006. Another geometrid, the winter moth Operophtera brumata, did not increase in density until the autumnal moth had its post-peak in 2004, and was at its own peak concurrent with the steeply declining autumnal moth abundance in 2005-06. 2. The body size variables measured (forewing lengths of males and females and hind femur lengths of males) of the autumnal moth showed a similar density-dependent response, i.e. increasing density was associated with decreasing body size and fecundity. Nevertheless, regression analyses clearly ranked the pooled geometrid abundance without a time lag as the best predictor for the body size variation, ahead of the abundance of the autumnal moth or past abundance of all geometrids. 3. Nondelayed effects of lowered food quality and absolute shortage of foliage under congested conditions are the most plausible reasons for reduced body size. 4. Two most commonly proposed causal factors of the autumnal moth population cycle, i.e. delayed inducible resistance of the host plant (mountain birch Betula pubescens czerepanovii) and delayed density-dependent parasitism by specialized hymenopteran parasitoids, cannot easily explain the diverging population trends between the autumnal and winter moths. 5. We suggest that either the inducible resistance of the host tree or the host utilization of the most important parasitoids and/or pathogens have to be strictly species-specific between these closely related moth species to produce the population dynamics observed. That fecundity of the autumnal moth was best related to the pooled geometrid abundance weakens support for the former hypothesis, while our lack of host-specific information limits conclusions about the role of natural enemies.     

Disentangling effects of uncertainties on population projections: climate change impact on an epixylic bryophyte

Assessment of future ecosystem risks should account for the relevant uncertainty sources. This means accounting for the joint effects of climate variables and using modelling techniques that allow proper treatment of uncertainties. We investigate the influence of three of the IPCC's scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (special report on emission scenarios (SRES)) on projections of the future abundance of a bryophyte model species. We also compare the relative importance of uncertainty sources on the population projections. The whole chain global climate model (GCM)-regional climate model-population dynamics model is addressed. The uncertainty depends on both natural- and model-related sources, in particular on GCM uncertainty. Ignoring the uncertainties gives an unwarranted impression of confidence in the results. The most likely population development of the bryophyte Buxbaumia viridis towards the end of this century is negative: even with a low-emission scenario, there is more than a 65 per cent risk for the population to be halved. The conclusion of a population decline is valid for all SRES scenarios investigated. Uncertainties are no longer an obstacle, but a mandatory aspect to include in the viability analysis of populations.     

The effects of phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation on forecasts of species range shifts under climate change

Species are the unit of analysis in many global change and conservation biology studies; however, species are not uniform entities but are composed of different, sometimes locally adapted, populations differing in plasticity. We examined how intraspecific variation in thermal niches and phenotypic plasticity will affect species distributions in a warming climate. We first developed a conceptual model linking plasticity and niche breadth, providing five alternative intraspecific scenarios that are consistent with existing literature. Secondly, we used ecological niche‐modeling techniques to quantify the impact of each intraspecific scenario on the distribution of a virtual species across a geographically realistic setting. Finally, we performed an analogous modeling exercise using real data on the climatic niches of different tree provenances. We show that when population differentiation is accounted for and dispersal is restricted, forecasts of species range shifts under climate change are even more pessimistic than those using the conventional assumption of homogeneously high plasticity across a species' range. Suitable population‐level data are not available for most species so identifying general patterns of population differentiation could fill this gap. However, the literature review revealed contrasting patterns among species, urging greater levels of integration among empirical, modeling and theoretical research on intraspecific phenotypic variation.     

Impacts of climate change on fire activity and fire management in the circumboreal forest

Forest fires are a significant and natural element of the circumboreal forest. Fire activity is strongly linked to weather, and increased fire activity due to climate change is anticipated or arguably has already occurred. Recent studies suggest a doubling of area burned along with a 50% increase in fire occurrence in parts of the circumboreal by the end of this century. Fire management agencies' ability to cope with these increases in fire activity is limited, as these organizations operate with a narrow margin between success and failure; a disproportionate number of fires may escape initial attack under a warmer climate, resulting in an increase in area burned that will be much greater than the corresponding increase in fire weather severity. There may be only a decade or two before increased fire activity means fire management agencies cannot maintain their current levels of effectiveness.     

气候变化对长白山阔叶红松林冠层蒸腾影响的模拟

应用基于过程的碳水耦合多层模型对长白山阔叶红松林冠层蒸腾量进行了模拟和模型验证,并模拟了冠层蒸腾量对未来气候变化的响应.结果表明:多层模型可以较好地模拟长白山阔叶红松林冠层蒸腾量,模拟值与涡动相关技术观测的实测值拟合较好.冠层蒸腾对气候变化响应的模拟显示,气温升高,潜热通量(LE)增加;土壤含水量减少,LE减少;大气CO2浓度增加,LE减少.在研究假定的气候变化情景下,LE对0～20 cm土壤含水量减少10%、CO2浓度增加190μmol·mol-1的联合变化的响应最敏感,对气温增加3.6℃、土壤含水量减少10%的联合变化的响应不敏感.     

Combined effects of climate and biotic interactions on the elevational range of a phytophagous insect

1. The ranges of many species have expanded in cool regions but contracted at warm margins in response to recent climate warming, but the mechanisms behind such changes remain unclear. Particular debate concerns the roles of direct climatic limitation vs. the effects of interacting species in explaining the location of low latitude or low elevation range margins. 2. The mountains of the Sierra de Guadarrama (central Spain) include both cool and warm range margins for the black-veined white butterfly, Aporia crataegi, which has disappeared from low elevations since the 1970s without colonizing the highest elevations. 3. We found that the current upper elevation limit to A. crataegi's distribution coincided closely with that of its host plants, but that the species was absent from elevations below 900 m, even where host plants were present. The density of A. crataegi per host plant increased with elevation, but overall abundance of the species declined at high elevations where host plants were rare. 4. The flight period of A. crataegi was later at higher elevations, meaning that butterflies in higher populations flew at hotter times of year; nevertheless, daytime temperatures for the month of peak flight decreased by 6.2 degrees C per 1 km increase in elevation. 5. At higher elevations A. crataegi eggs were laid on the south side of host plants (expected to correspond to hotter microclimates), whereas at lower sites the (cooler) north side of plants was selected. Field transplant experiments showed that egg survival increased with elevation. 6. Climatic limitation is the most likely explanation for the low elevation range margin of A. crataegi, whereas the absence of host plants from high elevations sets the upper limit. This contrasts with the frequent assumption that biotic interactions typically determine warm range margins, and thermal limitation cool margins. 7. Studies that have modelled distribution changes in response to climate change may have underestimated declines for many specialist species, because range contractions will be exacerbated by mismatch between the future distribution of suitable climate space and the availability of resources such as host plants.     

Effects of climate change and crop planting structure on the abundance of cotton bollworm,Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)

The interactions between plants and insects play an important role in ecosystems. Climate change and cropping patterns can affect herbivorous pest insect dynamics. Understanding the reasons for population fluctuations can help improve integrated pest management strategies. Here, a 25‐year dataset on climate, cropping planting structure, and the population dynamics of cotton bollworms (Helicoverpa armigera) from Bachu County, south Xinjiang, China, was analyzed to assess the effects of changes in climate and crop planting structure on the population dynamics of H. armigera. The three generations of H. armigera showed increasing trends in population size with climate warming, especially in the third generation. The relative abundances of the first and second generations decreased, but that of the third generation increased. Rising temperature and precipitation produced different impacts on the development of different generations. The population numbers of H. armigera increased with the increase in the non‐Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton‐planted area. Asynchrony of abrupt changes existed among climate change, crop flowering dates, and the phenology of H. armigera moths. The asynchronous responses in crop flowering dates and phenology of H. armigera to climate warming would expand in the future. The primary factors affecting the first, second, and third generations of moths were T_mean in June, the last appearance date of the second generation of moths, and the duration of the third generation of moths, respectively. To reduce the harm to crops caused by H. armigera, Bt cotton should be widely planted.     

气候变化对植物-传粉昆虫的分布区和物候及其互作关系的影响

全球气候变化对生态系统的影响是人类社会面临的紧迫而又严峻的挑战。气候变化带来的极端气候事件的增多, 直接影响到生态系统生产力和服务功能。本文总结了气候变化对植物-传粉昆虫互作的研究进展, 强调植物-传粉昆虫互作网络结构和其时空演变的解析, 以及互作关系和功能性状重组研究的重要性。近年来在气温持续上升背景下对植物-传粉昆虫互作关系影响的研究也受到了更多关注, 这些研究主要集中在两方面: 一是植物和传粉昆虫分布区的变化, 包括部分种群可能灭绝; 二是物候的变化, 即植物花期和传粉昆虫活动期的改变。植物与传粉昆虫任何一方在空间或时间上的改变, 都会导致传粉关系的错配或丢失。此外, 也可能导致植物-传粉昆虫双方的功能性状及其耦合的改变, 从而影响其互作关系的稳定。建议在今后的研究中关注: (1)覆盖生物多样性的多个尺度的研究; (2)对植物-传粉者互作网络的长期监测; (3)重要指示物种繁殖适合度评价; (4)植物-传粉昆虫互作双方功能性状在时间和空间尺度上的变化, 及其互作关系的重组; (5)关键植物和传粉昆虫类群的评估和保护。     

Effect of climate change on mast-seeding species: frequency of mass flowering and escape from specialist insect seed predators

Global surface temperatures are expected to increase by several degrees in the next century, with potentially large but poorly understood impacts on ecological interactions. Here we propose potential effects of increased temperatures on ecologically dominant New Zealand grasses (Chionochloa spp.) that mass flower and mast seed. Twenty-two years’ data from five masting Chionochloa species in New Zealand showed that the cue for heavy flowering was unusually high temperature in the summer of the year before flowering. Attack by predispersal insect seed predators was much reduced in mast years, apparently because predator populations were satiated. Increased temperatures would greatly decrease interannual variation in Chionochloa flowering, allowing seed predator populations to increase and potentially to devastate the seed crop annually. Similar responses are likely in masting species worldwide. This previously unrecognized effect of global warming could have widespread impacts on temperate ecosystems.     

Projected climate change effects on Rocky Mountain and Great Plains birds: generalities of biodiversity consequences

Climate change effects on biodiversity are already manifested, and yet no predictive knowledge characterizes the likely nature of these effects. Previous studies suggested an influence of topography on these effects, a possibility tested herein. Bird species with distributions restricted to montane (26 species) and Great Plains (19 species) regions of central and western North America were modeled, and climate change effects on their distributions compared: in general, plains species were more heavily influenced by climate change, with drastic area reductions (mode 35% of distributional area lost under assumption of no dispersal) and dramatic spatial movements (0–400 km shift of range centroid under assumption of no dispersal) of appropriate habitats. These results suggest an important generality regarding climate change effects on biodiversity, and provide useful guidelines for conservation planning.     

Deconstructing the eradication of new world screwworm in North America: retrospective analysis and climate warming effects

Before its eradication from North America, the subtropical‐tropical new world screwworm fly Cochliomyia hominivorax (Coquerel) invaded southwestern temperate areas of the U.S.A., where it caused myiasis in wildlife and livestock. Outbreaks of the fly occurred during years when adult migrants were carried northward on North American monsoon winds from the northern areas of Mexico and south Texas. We deconstruct, retrospectively, the biology and the effect of weather on the eradication of the fly in North America. Screwworm was found to be an ideal candidate for eradication using the sterile insect technique (SIT) because females mate only once, whereas males are polygynous, and, although it has a high reproductive potential, field population growth rates are low in tropical areas. In northern areas, eradication was enhanced by cool‐cold weather, whereas eradication in tropical Mexico and Central America is explained by the SIT. Despite low average efficacy of SIT releases (approximately 1.7%), the added pressure of massive SIT releases reduced intrinsically low fly populations, leading to mate‐limited extinction. Non‐autochthonous cases of myiasis occur in North America and, if the fly reestablishes, climate warming by 2045–2055 will expand the area of favourability and increase the frequency and severity of outbreaks.