Natural selection and the maximization of fitness

The notion that natural selection is a process of fitness maximization gets a bad press in population genetics, yet in other areas of biology the view that organisms behave as if attempting to maximize their fitness remains widespread. Here I critically appraise the prospects for reconciliation. I first distinguish four varieties of fitness maximization. I then examine two recent developments that may appear to vindicate at least one of these varieties. The first is the ‘new’ interpretation of Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection, on which the theorem is exactly true for any evolving population that satisfies some minimal assumptions. The second is the Formal Darwinism project, which forges links between gene frequency change and optimal strategy choice. In both cases, I argue that the results fail to establish a biologically significant maximization principle. I conclude that it may be a mistake to look for universal maximization principles justified by theory alone. A more promising approach may be to find maximization principles that apply conditionally and to show that the conditions were satisfied in the evolution of particular traits.     

The role of selection and historical factors in driving population differentiation along an elevational gradient in an island bird

Adaptation to local environmental conditions and the range dynamics of populations can influence evolutionary divergence along environmental gradients. Thus, it is important to investigate patterns of both phenotypic and genetic variations among populations to reveal the respective roles of these two types of factors in driving population differentiation. Here, we test for evidence of phenotypic and genetic structure across populations of a passerine bird (Zosterops borbonicus) distributed along a steep elevational gradient on the island of Réunion. Using 11 microsatellite loci screened in 401 individuals from 18 localities distributed along the gradient, we found that genetic differentiation occurred at two spatial levels: (i) between two main population groups corresponding to highland and lowland areas, respectively, and (ii) within each of these two groups. In contrast, several morphological traits varied gradually along the gradient. Comparison of neutral genetic differentiation (F_ST) and phenotypic differentiation (P_ST) showed that P_ST largely exceeds F_ST at several morphological traits, which is consistent with a role for local adaptation in driving morphological divergence along the gradient. Overall, our results revealed an area of secondary contact midway up the gradient between two major, cryptic, population groups likely diverged in allopatry. Remarkably, local adaptation has shaped phenotypic differentiation irrespective of population history, resulting in different patterns of variation along the elevational gradient. Our findings underscore the importance of understanding both historical and selective factors when trying to explain variation along environmental gradients.     

Impacts of environmental heterogeneity on natural selection in a wild bird population*

Natural selection has been studied for several decades, resulting in the computation of thousands of selection estimates. Although the importance of environmental conditions on selection has often been suggested, published estimates rarely take into account the effects of environmental heterogeneity on selection patterns. Here, we estimated linear and nonlinear viability selection gradients on morphological traits of 12-day old nestlings in a wild population of tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) across a large-scale heterogeneous study system in southern Québec, Canada. We assessed the environmental drivers of nestling survival and evaluated their effects on strength and direction of selection gradients. Separate analyses of environmental variables showed that high temperatures and heavy rainfall caused stronger positive linear selection on morphological traits. Weaker linear selection was also measured in more extensively cultivated areas. Both strength and shape of nonlinear quadratic and correlational components of selection were modified by environmental variables. Considering all environmental variables revealed that precipitation since hatching affected patterns of linear selection on traits, while temperatures since hatching shaped nonlinear selection patterns. Our study underlines the importance of quantifying linear and nonlinear natural selection under various environmental conditions and how the evolutionary response of traits may be affected by ongoing human-induced environmental changes.     

Evolutionary stasis of a heritable morphological trait in a wild fish population despite apparent directional selection

Comparing observed versus theoretically expected evolutionary responses is important for our understanding of the evolutionary process, and for assessing how species may cope with anthropogenic change. Here, we document directional selection for larger female size in Atlantic salmon, using pedigree‐derived estimates of lifetime reproductive success as a fitness measure. We show the trait is heritable and, thus, capable of responding to selection. The Breeder's Equation, which predicts microevolution as the product of phenotypic selection and heritability, predicted evolution of larger size. This was at odds, however, with the observed lack of either phenotypic or genetic temporal trends in body size, a so‐called “paradox of stasis.” To investigate this paradox, we estimated the additive genetic covariance between trait and fitness, which provides a prediction of evolutionary change according to Robertson's secondary theorem of selection (STS) that is unbiased by missing variables. The STS prediction was consistent with the observed stasis. Decomposition of phenotypic selection gradients into genetic and environmental components revealed a potential upward bias, implying unmeasured factors that covary with trait and fitness. These results showcase the power of pedigreed, wild population studies—which have largely been limited to birds and mammals—to study evolutionary processes on contemporary timescales.     

Stabilizing natural selection on the early expression of a secondary sexual trait in a passerine bird

Natural selection is a central tenet of evolutionary theory, yet the estimation of the direction and intensity of selection remains problematic. Here, we assess the strength of selection on the early expression of a secondary sexual ornament, bill colour, in male European blackbirds (Turdus merula) using 5 years of capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data. The best-fitting model consisted of a quadratic relationship between survival rate and bill colour, indicating stabilizing natural selection on the early expression of a secondary sexual trait. There was no evidence for sexual selection acting on bill colour in the first year. We suggest that the consideration of early selection and the adoption of refined statistical methods may reveal patterns of selection in the wild that have, as yet, remained undetected.     

Multivariate selection and intersexual genetic constraints in a wild bird population

When selection differs between the sexes for traits that are genetically correlated between the sexes, there is potential for the effect of selection in one sex to be altered by indirect selection in the other sex, a situation commonly referred to as intralocus sexual conflict (ISC). While potentially common, ISC has rarely been studied in wild populations. Here, we studied ISC over a set of morphological traits (wing length, tarsus length, bill depth and bill length) in a wild population of great tits (Parus major) from Wytham Woods, UK. Specifically, we quantified the microevolutionary impacts of ISC by combining intra‐ and intersex additive genetic (co)variances and sex‐specific selection estimates in a multivariate framework. Large genetic correlations between homologous male and female traits combined with evidence for sex‐specific multivariate survival selection suggested that ISC could play an appreciable role in the evolution of this population. Together, multivariate sex‐specific selection and additive genetic (co)variance for the traits considered accounted for additive genetic variance in fitness that was uncorrelated between the sexes (cross‐sex genetic correlation = ?0.003, 95% CI = ?0.83, 0.83). Gender load, defined as the reduction in a population's rate of adaptation due to sex‐specific effects, was estimated at 50% (95% CI = 13%, 86%). This study provides novel insights into the evolution of sexual dimorphism in wild populations and illustrates how quantitative genetics and selection analyses can be combined in a multivariate framework to quantify the microevolutionary impacts of ISC.     

Fluctuations in the Size of Isolated Single-Species Populations and Natural Selection

This paper discusses the basic types of dynamical behavior of populations obtained in discrete models, such as monotonous dynamics, stable limited cycles, and chaotic variations. All these modes are shown to have possibly arisen in the evolution of limited populations under the effect of density-independent selection. This effect together with that of density-dependent non-selective factors has been termed F-selection, which is characterized by independence of relative fitnesses from population density, whereas populations may be ecologically limited; in other words, absolute fitnesses prove to be a function of population size. The characteristic of F-selection is to be not sensitive to changes in population size but to lead to fluctuations, that create conditions for achieving density-dependent selection.     

How to quantify (the response to) sexual selection on traits

Natural selection operates via fitness components like mating success, fecundity, and longevity, which can be understood as intermediaries in the causal process linking traits to fitness. In particular, sexual selection occurs when traits influence mating or fertilization success, which, in turn, influences fitness. We show how to quantify both these steps in a single path analysis, leading to better estimates of the strength of sexual selection. Our model controls for confounding variables, such as body size or condition, when estimating the relationship between mating and reproductive success. Correspondingly, we define the Bateman gradient and the Jones index using partial rather than simple regressions, which better captures how they are commonly interpreted. The model can be applied both to purely phenotypic data and to quantitative genetic parameters estimated using information on relatedness. The phenotypic approach breaks down selection differentials into a sexually selected and a “remainder” component. The quantitative genetic approach decomposes the estimated evolutionary response to selection analogously. We apply our method to analyze sexual selection in male dusky pipefish, Syngnathus floridae, and in two simulated datasets. We highlight conceptual and statistical limitations of previous path‐based approaches, which can lead to substantial misestimation of sexual selection.     

Natural selection on the genetical component of variance in body condition in a wild bird population

Although there is substantial evidence that skeletal measures of body size are heritable in wild animal populations, it is frequently assumed that the nonskeletal component of body weight (or ‘condition’) is determined primarily by environmental factors, in particular nutritional state. We tested this assumption by quantifying the genetic and environmental components of variance in fledgling body condition index (=relative body weight) in a natural population of collared flycatchers (Ficedula albicollis), and compared the strength of natural selection on individual breeding values with that on phenotypic values. A mixed model analysis of the components of variance, based on an ‘animal model’ and using 18 years of data on 17 717 nestlings, revealed a significant additive genetic component of variance in body condition, which corresponded to a narrow sense heritability (h²) of 0.30 (SE=0.03). Nongenetic contributions to variation in body condition were large, but there was no evidence of dominance variance nor of contributions from early maternal or common environment effects (pre‐manipulation environment) in condition at fledging. Comparison of pre‐ and post‐selection samples revealed virtually identical h² of body condition index, despite the fact that there was a significant decrease (35%) in the levels of additive genetic variance from fledging to breeding. The similar h² in the two samples occurred because the environmental component of variance was also reduced by selection, suggesting that natural selection was acting on both genotypic and environmental variation. The effects of selection on genetic variance were confirmed by calculation of the selection differentials for both phenotypic values and best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP) estimates of breeding values: there was positive directional selection on condition index both at the phenotypic and the genotypic level. The significant h² of body condition index is consistent with data from human and rodent populations showing significant additive genetic variance in relative body mass and adiposity, but contrasts with the common assumption in ecology that body condition reflects an individual’s nongenetic nutritional state. Furthermore, the substantial reduction in the additive genetic component of variance in body condition index suggests that selection on environmental deviations cannot alone explain the maintenance of additive genetic variation in heritable traits, but that other mechanisms are needed to explain the moderate to high heritabilities of traits under consistent and strong directional selection.     

Fisher'S geometrical model of fitness landscape and variance in fitness within a changing environment

The fitness of an individual can be simply defined as the number of its offspring in the next generation. However, it is not well understood how selection on the phenotype determines fitness. In accordance with Fisher's fundamental theorem, fitness should have no or very little genetic variance, whereas empirical data suggest that is not the case. To bridge these knowledge gaps, we follow Fisher's geometrical model and assume that fitness is determined by multivariate stabilizing selection toward an optimum that may vary among generations. We assume random mating, free recombination, additive genes, and uncorrelated stabilizing selection and mutational effects on traits. In a constant environment, we find that genetic variance in fitness under mutation-selection balance is a U-shaped function of the number of traits (i.e., of the so-called "organismal complexity"). Because the variance can be high if the organism is of either low or high complexity, this suggests that complexity has little direct costs. Under a temporally varying optimum, genetic variance increases relative to a constant optimum and increasingly so when the mutation rate is small. Therefore, mutation and changing environment together can maintain high genetic variance. These results therefore lend support to Fisher's geometric model of a fitness landscape.     

Fisher’s fundamental theorem of inclusive fitness and the change in fitness due to natural selection when conspecifics interact

Competition and cooperation is fundamental to evolution by natural selection, both in animals and plants. Here, I investigate the consequences of such interactions for response in fitness due to natural selection. I provide quantitative genetic expressions for heritable variance and response in fitness due to natural selection when conspecifics interact. Results show that interactions among conspecifics generate extra heritable variance in fitness, and that interacting with kin is the key to evolutionary success because it translates the extra heritable variance into response in fitness. This work also unifies Fisher’s fundamental theorem of natural selection (FTNS) and Hamilton’s inclusive fitness (IF). The FTNS implies that natural selection maximizes fitness, whereas Hamilton proposed maximization of IF. This work shows that the FTNS describes the increase in IF, rather than direct fitness, at a rate equal to the additive genetic variance in fitness. Thus, Hamilton’s IF and Fisher’s FTNS both describe the maximization of IF.     

The effect of inbreeding on natural selection in a seed‐feeding beetle

Little is known about how inbreeding alters selection on ecologically relevant traits. Inbreeding could affect selection by changing the distribution of traits and/or fitness, or by changing the causal effect of traits on fitness. Here, I test whether selection on egg size varies with the degree of inbreeding in the seed‐feeding beetle, Stator limbatus. There was strong directional selection favoring large eggs for both inbred and outbred beetles; offspring from smaller eggs had lower survivorship on a resistant host. Inbreeding treatment had no effect on the magnitude of selection on egg size; all selection coefficients were between ~0.078 and 0.096, regardless of treatment. However, inbreeding depression declined with egg size; this is because the difference in fitness between inbreds and outbreds did not change, but average fitness increased, with egg size. A consequence of this is that populations that differ in mean egg size should experience different magnitudes of inbreeding depression (all else being equal) and thus should differ in the magnitude of selection on traits that affect mating, simply as a consequence of variation in egg size. Also, maternal traits (such as egg size) that mediate stressfulness of the environment for offspring can mediate the severity of inbreeding depression.     

Sea‐level rise,habitat loss,and potential extirpation of a salt marsh specialist bird in urbanized landscapes

Sea‐level rise (SLR) impacts on intertidal habitat depend on coastal topology, accretion, and constraints from surrounding development. Such habitat changes might affect species like Belding's savannah sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis beldingi; BSSP), which live in high‐elevation salt marsh in the Southern California Bight. To predict how BSSP habitat might change under various SLR scenarios, we first constructed a suitability model by matching bird observations with elevation. We then mapped current BSSP breeding and foraging habitat at six estuarine sites by applying the elevation‐suitability model to digital elevation models. To estimate changes in digital elevation models under different SLR scenarios, we used a site‐specific, one‐dimensional elevation model (wetland accretion rate model of ecosystem resilience). We then applied our elevation‐suitability model to the projected digital elevation models. The resulting maps suggest that suitable breeding and foraging habitat could decline as increased inundation converts middle‐ and high‐elevation suitable habitat to mudflat and subtidal zones. As a result, the highest SLR scenario predicted that no suitable breeding or foraging habitat would remain at any site by 2100 and 2110. Removing development constraints to facilitate landward migration of high salt marsh, or redistributing dredge spoils to replace submerged habitat, might create future high salt marsh habitat, thereby reducing extirpation risk for BSSP in southern California.     

The effects of sexual selection on trait divergence in a peripheral population with gene flow

The unique aspects of speciation and divergence in peripheral populations have long sparked much research. Unidirectional migration, received by some peripheral populations, can hinder the evolution of distinct differences from their founding populations. Here, we explore the effects that sexual selection, long hypothesized to drive the divergence of distinct traits used in mate choice, can play in the evolution of such traits in a partially isolated peripheral population. Using population genetic continent‐island models, we show that with phenotype matching, sexual selection increases the frequency of an island‐specific mating trait only when female preferences are of intermediate strength. We identify regions of preference strength for which sexual selection can instead cause an island‐specific trait to be lost, even when it would have otherwise been maintained at migration‐selection balance. When there are instead separate preference and trait loci, we find that sexual selection can lead to low trait frequencies or trait loss when female preferences are weak to intermediate, but that sexual selection can increase trait frequencies when preferences are strong. We also show that novel preference strengths almost universally cannot increase, under either mating mechanism, precluding the evolution of premating isolation in peripheral populations at the early stages of species divergence.     

Natural selection acts in opposite ways on correlated hormonal mediators of prenatal maternal effects in a wild bird population

Maternal hormones are important mediators of prenatal maternal effects. Although many experimental studies have demonstrated their potency in shaping offspring phenotypes, we know remarkably little about their adaptive value. Using long‐term data on a wild collared flycatcher (Ficedula albicollis) population, we show that natural selection acts in opposite ways on two maternally derived androgens, yolk androstenedione (A4) and yolk testosterone (T). High yolk A4 concentrations are associated with higher fitness, whereas high yolk T concentrations are associated with lower fitness. Natural selection thus favours females that produce eggs with high A4 and low T concentrations. Importantly, however, there exists a positive (non‐genetic) correlation between A4 and T, which suggests that females are limited in their ability to reach this adaptive optimum. Thereby, these results provide strong evidence for an adaptive value of differential maternal androgen deposition, and a mechanistic explanation for the maintenance of variation in maternal investment in the wild.     

The relative contribution of drift and selection to phenotypic divergence: A test case using the horseshoe bats Rhinolophus simulator and Rhinolophus swinnyi

Natural selection and drift can act on populations individually, simultaneously or in tandem and our understanding of phenotypic divergence depends on our ability to recognize the contribution of each. According to the quantitative theory of evolution, if an organism has diversified through neutral evolutionary processes (mutation and drift), variation of phenotypic characteristics between different geographic localities (B) should be directly proportional to the variation within localities (W), that is, B ∝ W. Significant deviations from this null model imply that non‐neutral forces such as natural selection are acting on a phenotype. We investigated the relative contributions of drift and selection to intraspecific diversity using southern African horseshoe bats as a test case. We characterized phenotypic diversity across the distributional range of Rhinolophus simulator (n = 101) and Rhinolophus swinnyi (n = 125) using several traits associated with flight and echolocation. Our results suggest that geographic variation in both species was predominantly caused by disruptive natural selection (B was not directly proportional to W). Evidence for correlated selection (co‐selection) among traits further confirmed that our results were not compatible with drift. Selection rather than drift is likely the predominant evolutionary process shaping intraspecific variation in traits that strongly impact fitness.     

Disentangling the effect of genes, the environment and chance on sex ratio variation in a wild bird population

Sex ratio theory proposes that the equal sex ratio typically observed in birds and mammals is the result of natural selection. However, in species with chromosomal sex determination, the same 1 : 1 sex ratio is expected under random Mendelian segregation. Here, we present an analysis of 14 years of sex ratio data for a population of song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) on Mandarte Island, at the nestling stage and at independence from parental care. We test for the presence of variance in sex ratio over and above the binomial variance expected under Mendelian segregation, and thereby quantify the potential for selection to shape sex ratio. Furthermore, if sex ratio variation is to be shaped by selection, we expect some of this extra-binomial variation to have a genetic basis. Despite ample statistical power, we find no evidence for the existence of either genetic or environmentally induced variation in sex ratio, in the nest or at independence. Instead, the sex ratio variation observed matches that expected under random Mendelian segregation. Using one of the best datasets of its kind, we conclude that female song sparrows do not, and perhaps cannot, adjust the sex of their offspring. We discuss the implications of this finding and make suggestions for future research.     

Mating patterns and determinants of individual reproductive success in brown trout (Salmo trutta) revealed by parentage analysis of an entire stream living population

Reproductive success and its determinants are difficult to infer for wild populations of species with no parental care where behavioural observations are difficult or impossible. In this study, we characterized the breeding system and provide estimates of individual reproductive success under natural conditions for an exhaustively sampled stream‐resident brown trout (Salmo trutta) population. We inferred parentage using a full probability Bayesian model that combines genetic (microsatellite) with phenotypic data. By augmenting the potential parents file with inferred parental genotypes from sib‐ship analysis in cases where large families had unsampled parents, we could make more precise inference on variance of family size. We observed both polygamous and monogamous matings and large reproductive skew for both sexes, particularly in males. Correspondingly, we found evidence for sexual selection on body size for both sexes. We show that the mating system of brown trout has the potential to be very flexible and we conjecture that environmental uncertainty could be driving the evolution and perhaps select for the maintenance of plasticity of the mating system in this species.     

The effects of selection,drift and genetic variation on life‐history trait divergence among insular populations of natterjack toad,Bufo calamita

Although loss of genetic variation is frequently assumed to be associated with loss of adaptive potential, only few studies have examined adaptation in populations with little genetic variation. On the Swedish west coast, the northern fringe populations of the natterjack toad Bufo calamita inhabit an atypical habitat consisting of offshore rock islands. There are strong among‐population differences in the amount of neutral genetic variation, making this system suitable for studies on mechanisms of trait divergence along a gradient of within‐population genetic variation. In this study, we examined the mechanisms of population divergence using Q_ST–F_ST comparisons and correlations between quantitative and neutral genetic variation. Our results suggest drift or weak stabilizing selection across the six populations included in this study, as indicated by low Q_ST–F_ST values, lack of significant population × temperature interactions and lack of significant differences among the islands in breeding pond size. The six populations included in this study differed in both neutral and quantitative genetic variation. Also, the correlations between neutral and quantitative genetic variation tended to be positive, however, the relatively small number of populations prevents any strong conclusions based on these correlations. Contrary to the majority of Q_ST–F_ST comparisons, our results suggest drift or weak stabilizing selection across the examined populations. Furthermore, the low heritability of fitness‐related traits may limit evolutionary responses in some of the populations.     

The interplay between natural and sexual selection in the evolution of sexual size dimorphism in Sceloporus lizards (Squamata: Phrynosomatidae)

Sexual size dimorphism (SSD) evolves because body size is usually related to reproductive success through different pathways in females and males. Female body size is strongly correlated with fecundity, while in males, body size is correlated with mating success. In many lizard species, males are larger than females, whereas in others, females are the larger sex, suggesting that selection on fecundity has been stronger than sexual selection on males. As placental development or egg retention requires more space within the abdominal cavity, it has been suggested that females of viviparous lizards have larger abdomens or body size than their oviparous relatives. Thus, it would be expected that females of viviparous species attain larger sizes than their oviparous relatives, generating more biased patterns of SSD. We test these predictions using lizards of the genus Sceloporus. After controlling for phylogenetic effects, our results confirm a strong relationship between female body size and fecundity, suggesting that selection for higher fecundity has had a main role in the evolution of female body size. However, oviparous and viviparous females exhibit similar sizes and allometric relationships. Even though there is a strong effect of body size on female fecundity, once phylogenetic effects are considered, we find that the slope of male on female body size is significantly larger than one, providing evidence of greater evolutionary divergence of male body size. These results suggest that the relative impact of sexual selection acting on males has been stronger than fecundity selection acting on females within Sceloporus lizards.