Effect of resource subsidies on predator–prey population dynamics: a mathematical model

The influence of a resource subsidy on predator–prey interactions is examined using a mathematical model. The model arises from the study of a biological system involving arctic foxes (predator), lemmings (prey), and seal carcasses (subsidy). In one version of the model, the predator, prey and subsidy all occur in the same location; in a second version, the predator moves between two patches, one containing only the prey and the other containing only the subsidy. Criteria for feasibility and stability of the different equilibrium states are studied both analytically and numerically. At small subsidy input rates, there is a minimum prey carrying capacity needed to support both predator and prey. At intermediate subsidy input rates, the predator and prey can always coexist. At high subsidy input rates, the prey cannot persist even at high carrying capacities. As predator movement increases, the dynamic stability of the predator–prey-subsidy interactions also increases.     

Spatial heterogeneity in climate change effects decouples the long‐term dynamics of wild reindeer populations in the high Arctic

The ‘Moran effect’ predicts that dynamics of populations of a species are synchronized over similar distances as their environmental drivers. Strong population synchrony reduces species viability, but spatial heterogeneity in density dependence, the environment, or its ecological responses may decouple dynamics in space, preventing extinctions. How such heterogeneity buffers impacts of global change on large‐scale population dynamics is not well studied. Here, we show that spatially autocorrelated fluctuations in annual winter weather synchronize wild reindeer dynamics across high‐Arctic Svalbard, while, paradoxically, spatial variation in winter climate trends contribute to diverging local population trajectories. Warmer summers have improved the carrying capacity and apparently led to increased total reindeer abundance. However, fluctuations in population size seem mainly driven by negative effects of stochastic winter rain‐on‐snow (ROS) events causing icing, with strongest effects at high densities. Count data for 10 reindeer populations 8–324 km apart suggested that density‐dependent ROS effects contributed to synchrony in population dynamics, mainly through spatially autocorrelated mortality. By comparing one coastal and one ‘continental’ reindeer population over four decades, we show that locally contrasting abundance trends can arise from spatial differences in climate change and responses to weather. The coastal population experienced a larger increase in ROS, and a stronger density‐dependent ROS effect on population growth rates, than the continental population. In contrast, the latter experienced stronger summer warming and showed the strongest positive response to summer temperatures. Accordingly, contrasting net effects of a recent climate regime shift—with increased ROS and harsher winters, yet higher summer temperatures and improved carrying capacity—led to negative and positive abundance trends in the coastal and continental population respectively. Thus, synchronized population fluctuations by climatic drivers can be buffered by spatial heterogeneity in the same drivers, as well as in the ecological responses, averaging out climate change effects at larger spatial scales.     

Integrating disparate datasets to model the functional response of a marine predator: A case study of harbour porpoises in the southern North Sea

1. Quantifying consumption and prey choice for marine predator species is key to understanding their interaction with prey species, fisheries, and the ecosystem as a whole. However, parameterizing a functional response for large predators can be challenging because of the difficulty in obtaining the required data on predator diet and on the availability of multiple prey species.
2. This study modeled a multi‐species functional response (MSFR) to describe the relationship between consumption by harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) and the availability of multiple prey species in the southern North Sea. Bayesian methodology was employed to estimate MSFR parameters and to incorporate uncertainties in diet and prey availability estimates. Prey consumption was estimated from stomach content data from stranded harbour porpoises. Prey availability to harbour porpoises was estimated based on the spatial overlap between prey distributions, estimated from fish survey data, and porpoise foraging range in the days prior to stranding predicted from telemetry data.
3. Results indicated a preference for sandeels in the study area. Prey switching behavior (change in preference dependent on prey abundance) was confirmed by the favored type III functional response model. Variation in the size of the foraging range (estimated area where harbour porpoises could have foraged prior to stranding) did not alter the overall pattern of the results or conclusions.
4. Integrating datasets on prey consumption from strandings, predator foraging distribution using telemetry, and prey availability from fish surveys into the modeling approach provides a methodological framework that may be appropriate for fitting MSFRs for other predators.

     

The impact of early Quaternary climate change on the diversification and population dynamics of a South American cactus species

Aim

Climatic oscillations have been suggested to promote speciation and changes in species distributions, mostly in connection with the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). However, the LGM is just the most recent of the 20+ glacial‐interglacial periods that characterise the Quaternary. Here, we investigate the role of climatic changes and geomorphological features in shaping the evolution, distribution and population dynamics of the South American cactus Cereus hildmannianus.

Location

South‐eastern South America.

Methods

We built a large fossil‐calibrated phylogeny for cacti (family Cactaceae), comprising 128 species distributed in all subfamilies, using a Bayesian relaxed clock. We used the results to derive a secondary calibration for a population‐level phylogeny in C. hildmannianus. We amplified two plastid (trnQ‐5′rps16 and psbJ‐petA) and one nuclear marker (PhyC) for 24 populations. We estimated population dynamics, ancestral areas, and species distribution models to infer the clade's evolutionary history in time and space.

Results

Our results show a major population divergence of C. hildmannianus at c. 2.60 Ma, which is strikingly coincident with the transition of the Pliocene–Pleistocene and onset of Quaternary glaciations. This was followed by a complex phylogeographic scenario involving population expansions across ecologically diverse regions.

Main conclusions

Contrary to the dominant research focus on the LGM, our study indicates a major impact of the first Quaternary glaciation on the distribution and population divergence of a South American plant species. Further intraspecific events seem related to successive climatic changes and geomorphology, including the development of the coastal plain and its peculiar diversity. We propose that the first Quaternary glaciation acted as a major evolutionary bottleneck, whereby many warm‐adapted lineages succumbed, while those that survived could diversify and better cope with subsequent climatic oscillations.     

Climate change reduces offspring fitness in littoral spawners: a study integrating organismic response and long‐term time‐series

Integrating long‐term ecological observations with experimental findings on species response and tolerance to environmental stress supports an understanding of climate effects on population dynamics. Here, we combine the two approaches, laboratory experiments and analysis of multi‐decadal time‐series, to understand the consequences of climate anomalies and ongoing change for the population dynamics of a eurythermal littoral species, Carcinus aestuarii. For the generation of cause and effect hypotheses we investigated the thermal response of crab embryos at four developmental stages. We first measured metabolic rate variations in embryos following acute warming (16–24 °C) and after incubation at 20 and 24 °C for limited periods. All experiments consistently revealed differential thermal responses depending on the developmental stage. Temperature‐induced changes in metabolic activity of early embryonic stages of blastula and gastrula suggested the onset of abnormal development. In contrast, later developmental stages, characterized by tissue and organ differentiation, were marginally affected by temperature anomalies, indicating enhanced resilience to thermal stress. Then, we extended these findings to a larger, population scale, by analyzing a time‐series of C. aestuarii landings in the Venice lagoon from 1945 to 2010 (ripe crabs were recorded separately) in relation to temperature. Landings and extreme climatic events showed marked long‐term and short‐term variations. We found negative relationships between landings and thermal stress indices on both timescales, with time lags consistent with an impact on crab early life stages. When quantitatively evaluating the influence of thermal stress on population dynamics, we found that it has a comparable effect to that of the biomass of spawners. This work provides strong evidence that physiological responses to climatic anomalies translate into population‐level changes and that apparently tolerant species may be impacted before the ontogeny of eurythermy. These ontogenetic bottlenecks markedly shape population dynamics and require study to assess the effects of global change.     

Long‐term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia): survey methods,data management,and long‐term population trends

Long‐term observational studies conducted at large (regional) spatial scales contribute to better understanding of landscape effects on population and evolutionary dynamics, including the conditions that affect long‐term viability of species, but large‐scale studies are expensive and logistically challenging to keep running for a long time. Here, we describe the long‐term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) that has been conducted since 1991 in a large network of 4000 habitat patches (dry meadows) within a study area of 50 by 70 km in the Åland Islands in Finland. We explain how the landscape structure has been described, including definition, delimitation, and mapping of the habitat patches; methods of field survey, including the logistics, cost, and reliability of the survey; and data management using the EarthCape biodiversity platform. We describe the long‐term metapopulation dynamics of the Glanville fritillary based on the survey. There has been no long‐term change in the overall size of the metapopulation, but the level of spatial synchrony and hence the amplitude of fluctuations in year‐to‐year metapopulation dynamics have increased over the years, possibly due to increasing frequency of exceptional weather conditions. We discuss the added value of large‐scale and long‐term population studies, but also emphasize the need to integrate more targeted experimental studies in the context of long‐term observational studies. For instance, in the case of the Glanville fritillary project, the long‐term study has produced an opportunity to sample individuals for experiments from local populations with a known demographic history. These studies have demonstrated striking differences in dispersal rate and other life‐history traits of individuals from newly established local populations (the offspring of colonizers) versus individuals from old, established local populations. The long‐term observational study has stimulated the development of metapopulation models and provided an opportunity to test model predictions. This combination of empirical studies and modeling has facilitated the study of key phenomena in spatial dynamics, such as extinction threshold and extinction debt.     

A review and meta‐analysis of the effects of climate change on Holarctic mountain and upland bird populations

Mountain regions are globally important areas for biodiversity but are subject to multiple human‐induced threats, including climate change, which has been more severe at higher elevations. We reviewed evidence for impacts of climate change on Holarctic mountain bird populations in terms of physiology, phenology, trophic interactions, demography and observed and projected distribution shifts, including effects of other factors that interact with climate change. We developed an objective classification of high‐elevation, mountain specialist and generalist species, based on the proportion of their breeding range occurring in mountain regions. Our review found evidence of responses of mountain bird populations to climate (extreme weather events, temperature, rainfall and snow) and environmental (i.e. land use) change, but we know little about either the underlying mechanisms or the synergistic effects of climate and land use. Long‐term studies assessing reproductive success or survival of mountain birds in relation to climate change were rare. Few studies have considered shifts in elevational distribution over time and a meta‐analysis did not find a consistent direction in elevation change. A meta‐analysis carried out on future projections of distribution shifts suggested that birds whose breeding distributions are largely restricted to mountains are likely to be more negatively impacted than other species. Adaptation responses to climate change rely mostly on managing and extending current protected areas for both species already present, and for expected colonizing species that are losing habitat and climate space at lower elevation. However, developing effective management actions requires an improvement in the current knowledge of mountain species ecology, in the quality of climate data and in understanding the role of interacting factors. Furthermore, the evidence was mostly based on widespread species rather than mountain specialists. Scientists should provide valuable tools to assess the status of mountain birds, for example through the development of a mountain bird population index, and policy‐makers should influence legislation to develop efficient agri‐environment schemes and forestry practices for mountain birds, as well as to regulate leisure activities at higher elevations.     

Contrasting traits,contrasting environments,and considerations on population dynamics under a changing climate: an ecophysiological field study of two co‐dominant tree species

The increase in light availability resulting from canopy changes or opening is not always beneficial and can inhibit photosynthesis of tree seedlings already under other environmental stress. Tree seedlings' responses to compounded abiotic stress depend on their life‐history traits, and understanding the variations of such responses is important for understanding population dynamics under a changing climate. In this study we investigate how the photosynthesis of juveniles of two canopy tree species with different life‐history traits, Abies sachalinensis and Betula ermanii, differs in two contrasting sites at a sub‐boreal forest in northern Japan—one under a deciduous canopy (Closed site) and the other at a wide canopy opening (Open site). Seedlings at the Open site had low F_v/F_m (quantum yield of photosystem II) for a longer period than those at the Closed site. Abies sachalinensis at the Closed site showed lower F_v/F_m in spring than those at the Open site, but recovered after the canopy's new leaves flushed, indicating its acclimation to the shaded condition. Mean P_max (light‐saturated photosynthetic rate at ambient CO₂ levels) of A. sachalinensis seedlings was affected by site and air temperature, while B. ermanii seedlings were also affected by precipitation. Only B. ermanii's seedlings presented growth in the period studied, in spite of observed mid‐day drops to F_v/F_m attributed to water‐deficit‐related photoprotection. Results suggest that the climate change predicted for the Hokkaido area may increase the competitive advantage of broad‐leaved deciduous species, such as B. ermanii, in relation to evergreen conifers like A. sachalinensis.     

Bottom-up and top-down effects in a tritrophic system: the population dynamics of Plutella xylostella (L.)–Cotesia plutellae (Kurdjumov) on different host plants

Abstract.  1. The effects of host-plant resistance on the population dynamics of the Diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella L., and its solitary parasitoid, Cotesia plutellae (Kurdjumov), were studied in replicated time-series experiments.
2. Host-plant resistance did not affect the equilibrial abundance of the Diamondback moth, but it affected the dynamics of Diamondback moth populations.
3. The mean population size of Diamondback moth showed no significant difference between Brassica rapa (a susceptible host plant) and Brassica napus (a partially resistant host plant) either in the presence or absence of the parasitoid.
4. Time-series analysis suggests that the dynamics of Diamondback moth on B. rapa were underpinned by delayed density-dependent processes. In contrast, the dynamics of the moth on B. napus were influenced by a direct density-dependent process.
5. Although measures of short-term parasitism showed a significantly higher rate of parasitism by C. plutellae on Diamondback moth feeding on B. napus compared with B. rapa , this individual performance does not translate into differences in the population dynamics. Analysis shows no significant difference in the persistence time of the population-level interaction between the host and parasitoid on the two different host plants.     

Vegetation change from chronic stress events: Detection of the effects of tide gate removal and long‐term drought on a tidal marsh

Question: Chronic stress events are defined as disturbance events that exceed the lifespan of the dominant plant species, fluctuate in intensity and lack abruptness or physical destruction of biomass. Can the effects of chronic stress events be measured on vegetation communities? Did two chronic stress events, the removal of a tide gate and a four year drought, cause a temporary or permanent shift in the vegetation communities of a tidal marsh? Location: Tidal marsh in southeastern United States. Methods: Change in species composition and dominance and community change on a landscape level salinity gradient were measured between time periods ranging from four months to seven years to construct a statistical baseline reference community at freshwater, oligohaline, and mesohaline sections of a tidal marsh. Statistical shifts in the plant community were defined as changes in the plant community that fell outside of the defined baseline reference community. Results: Plant community changes outside of the reference community occurred in 13 out of 378 community comparisons. Removal of the tide gate had a greater effect on interstitial salinity levels than the drought and was most intense in the oligohaline marsh, where between 20 to 45% of the freshwa‐ter/oligohaline community types permanently converted to oligohaline community types. However, community shifts in the freshwater and oligohaline marsh induced by the drought were temporary, lasting from 1 to 3+ years. Neither chronic stress event permanently altered the mesohaline plant communities. Conclusion: The effects of chronic stress events could be detected; an extended historical record of vegetation change (18 years) was necessary to identify community shifts outside of a reference condition of the community and to determine if those shifts were permanent or temporary.