Family effects on early survival and variance in long-term reproductive success of female cheetahs

1. While it is generally accepted that the survival of offspring within families may be correlated, the extent of correlation has been largely untested. Furthermore, the impact of such correlation on the estimated variance in females' reproductive success has rarely been quantified. 2. Here we use an exceptional data set from a long-term study of individually recognized cheetahs from the Serengeti National Park in Tanzania to formally quantify family effects in carnivores. 3. We show (i) that cubs from the same litter exhibit more similar fates than unrelated cubs when it comes to first-year survival; and (ii) that the observed variance of the long-term reproductive success of females is twice the variance expected under the assumption of complete independence of fates between cubs. 4. We suggest that family effects are likely to be widespread in vertebrates with average litter sizes > 1, and could have important consequences for population dynamics and population viability analyses.     

Predators of northern shrimp, Pandalus borealis (Pandalidae), throughout the North Atlantic

A compendium of northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) predators was assembled, thereby consolidating decades of research that described trophic interactions among relevant marine species in the North Atlantic. The importance of shrimp as prey and the impacts of predation on shrimp populations were gleaned, where possible, from the literature. The review identified 26 species that prey on shrimp within North Atlantic ecosystems. The results clarified the role of shrimp as prey within these ecosystems, confirming that they provide an abundant source of food for marine fish, mammals and invertebrates throughout the North Atlantic. The evidence supported the likelihood of predation mortality as one of the key factors regulating shrimp population dynamics. However, lacking representative estimates of shrimp consumption by predators, the net effect on predation mortality within populations was unquantifiable.     

Demographic factors and genetic variation influence population persistence under environmental change

Population persistence has been studied in a conservation context to predict the fate of small or declining populations. Persistence models have explored effects on extinction of random demographic and environmental fluctuations, but in the face of directional environmental change they should also integrate factors affecting whether a population can adapt. Here, we examine the population‐size dependence of demographic and genetic factors and their likely contributions to extinction time under scenarios of environmental change. Parameter estimates were derived from experimental populations of the rainforest species, Drosophila birchii, held in the lab for 10 generations at census sizes of 20, 100 and 1000, and later exposed to five generations of heat‐knockdown selection. Under a model of directional change in the thermal environment, rapid extinction of populations of size 20 was caused by a combination of low growth rate (r) and high stochasticity in r. Populations of 100 had significantly higher reproductive output, lower stochasticity in r and more additive genetic variance (V_A) than populations of 20, but they were predicted to persist less well than the largest size class. Even populations of 1000 persisted only a few hundred generations under realistic estimates of environmental change because of low V_A for heat‐knockdown resistance. The experimental results document population‐size dependence of demographic and adaptability factors. The simulations illustrate a threshold influence of demographic factors on population persistence, while genetic variance has a more elastic impact on persistence under environmental change.     

The challenges of conservation for declining migrants: are reserve‐based initiatives during the breeding season appropriate for the Pied Flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca?

Creating conservation policies for declining migrant species in response to global change presents a considerable challenge. Migrant species are affected by factors at breeding grounds, overwintering areas and during migration. Accordingly, reserve-based management during the breeding season is not always a suitable conservation strategy. Recent Pied Flycatcher population decline typifies the pattern for many migrants. The UK population has declined by 43% in the past decade, but explanations, and possible solutions, remain elusive. We use 15 years of data (1990–2004) from a declining British population to establish possible reasons for decline, considering: (1) breeding performance (including the influences of competition and predation); (2) weather patterns caused by the winter phase (December–March) of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which modify conditions experienced at wintering grounds and on migration; and (3) possible impacts of climate change on spring temperatures. We conclude that decreasing breeding performance is contributing to decline, but that non-breeding factors are more important. Winter NAO index is a strong predictor of breeding population, probably because it influences food abundance in Africa and at migratory stopover points. Importantly, however, year itself enhances the predictive model, indicating that influences on population remain unaccounted for by current research. Management strategies based on increasing breeding productivity cannot fully address population decline because non-breeding factors appear important. However, as breeding performance is declining, breeding-based strategies remain useful conservation tools. To this end, our research indicates that optimal placement of nestboxes as regards orientation and habitat management to increase larval food supplies could increase productivity significantly.     

兰科植物种群动态研究进展

兰科植物种群动态研究中,种群统计学分析能够很好地揭示植物个体在时空上的变化,是研究种群动态的核心.在自然生境中,许多附生兰科植物更倾向于离散或斑块状分布,可以通过集合种群研究分析斑块之间个体的基因流动,判断物种种群保护的规模.长期的种群动态研究能够获得兰科植物生活史和种群动态方面的可靠信息,以及一定环境条件下其时空波动及与种群功能之间的关系;短期的研究能够更好地理解具有结构性的独立植株与其所处的群落间的关系.本文根据种群生态学原理以及兰科植物的生态特点,从种群的密度及分布、种群统计学、种群的调节、集合种群和种群生存力分析（PVA）模型等方面阐述了国内外兰科植物种群动态研究进展.     

种群生存力分析（PVA）的方法与应用

随着人们对资源的加速利用,生境丧失和破碎化导致物种濒危问题日益严重.以岛屿生物地理学为理论起源的种群生存力分析（PVA）,通过分析和模拟种群动态过程并建立灭绝概率与种群数量之间的关系,为濒危物种保护提供了重要的理论依据和研究途径.在过去的几十年中,种群生存力分析已成为保护生物学中一项重要的研究内容.目前种群生存力分析发展稳定,但对其实际预测能力和准确性尚存质疑,应用方面也有待进一步发展.种群生存力分析的进一步完善还需要在理论和方法上的创新,特别是籍于景观生态学和可持续性科学的理念,将空间分析手段、经济社会因素纳入到物种和种群的预测和管理上,从而使其具有更完整的理论基础和更高的实用价值.为此,本文对种群生存力分析的历史、基本概念、研究方法、模型应用和准确性进行了综述,并提出了有关的研究展望.     

The influence of year-to-year variations in winter weather on the dynamics of Daphnia and Eudiaptomus in Esthwaite Water, Cumbria

1. Micro-crustacea of the genus Daphnia and Eudiaptomus have evolved different physiological mechanisms for coping with life in a rapidly changing environment. In this paper, we analyse some of the physical and biological factors influencing the winter abundance of the two species in a small lake (Esthwaite Water in Cumbria).
2. The results demonstrate that much of the year-to-year variation in their relative abundance can be related to long-term changes in the weather. The highest numbers of Daphnia were typically found in cold, calm winters when small flagellates were relatively abundant. In contrast, the highest numbers of Eudiaptomus were found in mild, windy winters when the phytoplankton community was dominated by colonial diatoms.
3. Year-to-year variations in the winter abundance of Eudiaptomus had no effect on their subsequent development but the numbers of overwintering Daphnia had a significant effect on the size of their first spring 'cohort'. The most important factor influencing the overwintering performance of the two species was the water temperature.
4. Winter air temperatures over much of Europe are influenced by the atmospheric pressure variation known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Winter water temperatures in Esthwaite Water were strongly correlated with this empirical index and there was a significant positive correlation between the NAO and the number of overwintering Eudiaptomus.     

Erratum to: Using multistate capture–mark–recapture models to quantify effects of predation on age-specific survival and population growth in black-tailed deer

Effective species management and conservation relies on accurate estimates of vital rates and an understanding of their link to environmental variables. We used multistate capture–mark–recapture models to directly quantify effects of predation on age-specific survival of black-tailed deer Odocoileus hemionus columbianus in California, USA. Survival probabilities were derived from individual encounter histories of 136 fawns and 57 adults monitored over 4 years. Based on results from our survival analysis we parameterized a Lefkovitch matrix and used elasticity analyses to investigate contributions of mortality due to predation to changes in population growth. We found strong evidence for age-specific survival including senescence. Survival of females >1 year old was consistently low (0.56 ± 0.18 for yearlings, 0.77 ± 0.13 for prime-aged females, and 0.55 ± 0.08 for senescent individuals), primarily due to high puma Puma concolor predation during summer. Predation from black bears Ursus americanus and coyotes Canis latrans was the primary cause for low annual survival of fawns (0.24 ± 0.16). Resulting estimates of population growth rates were indicative of a strongly declining population (λ = 0.82 ± 0.13). Despite high sensitivity to changes in adult survival, results from a lower-level elasticity analysis suggested that predation on fawns was the most significant individual mortality component affecting population decline. Our results provide a rare, direct link between predation, age-specific survival and the predicted population decline of a common ungulate species. The magnitude of predation was unexpected and suggests that ungulates in multi-predator systems struggle to cope with simultaneous reductions in survival probabilities from predators targeting different age classes.     

The responses of unstable food chains to enrichment

Summary This article investigates the mean abundances of trophic levels in simple models of two- and three-level food chains as a function of the rate of input of nutrients. The analysis concentrates on cases in which the equilibrium point with all species present is unstable. In most of the models, the instability arises because the consumer species become satiated when food density is high. In unstable two-level systems, bottom level abundance generally increases with increased nutrient input. The abundance of the second level may decrease with increased input. Changes in the intrinsic rate of increase and carrying capacity of the bottom level can have qualitatively opposite effects on trophic level abundances. Refuges for or immigration of the bottom level usually cause both levels to increase in mean abundance with an increased carrying capacity. A variety of different predator—prey models are discussed briefly and the results suggest that increased nutrient input will often increase the abundance of both levels; however, several circumstances can cause the top level to decrease. In three-level systems, an increased carrying capacity can cause extinction of the top level. Extinction may or may not be conditional on the initial densities of the three levels. These results may help explain the observed lack of correlation between productivity and the number of trophic levels in natural food webs, as well as the lack of very long food chains. The results suggest that patterns of abundances across productivity gradients cannot be used to assess the importance of top-down vs bottom-up effects.