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1.
Stephen Pringle Ngoni Chiweshe Peter R. Steward Peter J. Mundy Martin Dallimer 《Ecology and evolution》2019,9(21):12259-12271
The conversion of natural, or seminatural, habitats to agricultural land and changes in agricultural land use are significant drivers of biodiversity loss. Within the context of land‐sharing versus land‐sparing debates, large‐scale commercial agriculture is known to be detrimental to biodiversity, but the effects of small‐scale subsistence farming on biodiversity are disputed. This poses a problem for sustainable land‐use management in the Global South, where approximately 30% of farmland is small‐scale. Following a rapid land redistribution program in Zimbabwe, we evaluated changes in avian biodiversity by examining richness, abundance, and functional diversity. Rapid land redistribution has, in the near term, resulted in increased avian abundance in newly farmed areas containing miombo woodland and open habitat. Conversion of seminatural ranched land to small‐scale farms had a negative impact on larger‐bodied birds, but species richness increased, and birds in some feeding guilds maintained or increased abundance. We found evidence that land‐use change caused a shift in the functional traits of the communities present. However, functional analyses may not have adequately reflected the trait filtering effect of land redistribution on large species. Whether newly farmed landscapes in Zimbabwe can deliver multiple benefits in terms of food production and habitat for biodiversity in the longer term is an open question. When managing agricultural land transitions, relying on taxonomic measures of diversity, or abundance‐weighted measures of function diversity, may obscure important information. If the value of smallholder‐farmed land for birds is to be maintained or improved, it will be essential to ensure that a wide array of habitat types is retained alongside efforts to reduce hunting and persecution of large bird species. 相似文献
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Alberto G. O. P. Barretto Göran Berndes Gerd Sparovek Stefan Wirsenius 《Global Change Biology》2013,19(6):1804-1815
Does agricultural intensification reduce the area used for agricultural production in Brazil? Census and other data for time periods 1975–1996 and 1996–2006 were processed and analyzed using Geographic Information System and statistical tools to investigate whether and if so, how, changes in yield and stocking rate coincide with changes in cropland and pasture area. Complementary medium‐resolution data on total farmland area changes were used in a spatially explicit assessment of the land‐use transitions that occurred in Brazil during 1960–2006. The analyses show that in agriculturally consolidated areas (mainly southern and southeastern Brazil), land‐use intensification (both on cropland and pastures) coincided with either contraction of both cropland and pasture areas, or cropland expansion at the expense of pastures, both cases resulting in farmland stability or contraction. In contrast, in agricultural frontier areas (i.e., the deforestation zones in central and northern Brazil), land‐use intensification coincided with expansion of agricultural lands. These observations provide support for the thesis that (i) technological improvements create incentives for expansion in agricultural frontier areas; and (ii) farmers are likely to reduce their managed acreage only if land becomes a scarce resource. The spatially explicit examination of land‐use transitions since 1960 reveals an expansion and gradual movement of the agricultural frontier toward the interior (center‐western Cerrado) of Brazil. It also indicates a possible initiation of a reversed trend in line with the forest transition theory, i.e., agricultural contraction and recurring forests in marginally suitable areas in southeastern Brazil, mainly within the Atlantic Forest biome. The significant reduction in deforestation that has taken place in recent years, despite rising food commodity prices, indicates that policies put in place to curb conversion of native vegetation to agriculture land might be effective. This can improve the prospects for protecting native vegetation by investing in agricultural intensification. 相似文献
3.
Lukas Egli Carsten Meyer Christoph Scherber Holger Kreft Teja Tscharntke 《Global Change Biology》2018,24(5):2212-2228
Closing yield gaps within existing croplands, and thereby avoiding further habitat conversions, is a prominently and controversially discussed strategy to meet the rising demand for agricultural products, while minimizing biodiversity impacts. The agricultural intensification associated with such a strategy poses additional threats to biodiversity within agricultural landscapes. The uneven spatial distribution of both yield gaps and biodiversity provides opportunities for reconciling agricultural intensification and biodiversity conservation through spatially optimized intensification. Here, we integrate distribution and habitat information for almost 20,000 vertebrate species with land‐cover and land‐use datasets. We estimate that projected agricultural intensification between 2000 and 2040 would reduce the global biodiversity value of agricultural lands by 11%, relative to 2000. Contrasting these projections with spatial land‐use optimization scenarios reveals that 88% of projected biodiversity loss could be avoided through globally coordinated land‐use planning, implying huge efficiency gains through international cooperation. However, global‐scale optimization also implies a highly uneven distribution of costs and benefits, resulting in distinct “winners and losers” in terms of national economic development, food security, food sovereignty or conservation. Given conflicting national interests and lacking effective governance mechanisms to guarantee equitable compensation of losers, multinational land‐use optimization seems politically unlikely. In turn, 61% of projected biodiversity loss could be avoided through nationally focused optimization, and 33% through optimization within just 10 countries. Targeted efforts to improve the capacity for integrated land‐use planning for sustainable intensification especially in these countries, including the strengthening of institutions that can arbitrate subnational land‐use conflicts, may offer an effective, yet politically feasible, avenue to better reconcile future trade‐offs between agriculture and conservation. The efficiency gains of optimization remained robust when assuming that yields could only be increased to 80% of their potential. Our results highlight the need to better integrate real‐world governance, political and economic challenges into sustainable development and global change mitigation research. 相似文献
4.
Carbon Storage and Land-Use Strategies in Agricultural Landscapes across Three Continents 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
David R. Williams Ben Phalan Claire Feniuk Rhys E. Green Andrew Balmford 《Current biology : CB》2018,28(15):2500-2505.e4
5.
Rebecca A. Senior Jane K. Hill Pamela González del Pliego Laurel K. Goode David P. Edwards 《Ecology and evolution》2017,7(19):7897-7908
Temperature is a core component of a species' fundamental niche. At the fine scale over which most organisms experience climate (mm to ha), temperature depends upon the amount of radiation reaching the Earth's surface, which is principally governed by vegetation. Tropical regions have undergone widespread and extreme changes to vegetation, particularly through the degradation and conversion of rainforests. As most terrestrial biodiversity is in the tropics, and many of these species possess narrow thermal limits, it is important to identify local thermal impacts of rainforest degradation and conversion. We collected pantropical, site‐level (<1 ha) temperature data from the literature to quantify impacts of land‐use change on local temperatures, and to examine whether this relationship differed aboveground relative to belowground and between wet and dry seasons. We found that local temperature in our sample sites was higher than primary forest in all human‐impacted land‐use types (N = 113,894 daytime temperature measurements from 25 studies). Warming was pronounced following conversion of forest to agricultural land (minimum +1.6°C, maximum +13.6°C), but minimal and nonsignificant when compared to forest degradation (e.g., by selective logging; minimum +1°C, maximum +1.1°C). The effect was buffered belowground (minimum buffering 0°C, maximum buffering 11.4°C), whereas seasonality had minimal impact (maximum buffering 1.9°C). We conclude that forest‐dependent species that persist following conversion of rainforest have experienced substantial local warming. Deforestation pushes these species closer to their thermal limits, making it more likely that compounding effects of future perturbations, such as severe droughts and global warming, will exceed species' tolerances. By contrast, degraded forests and belowground habitats may provide important refugia for thermally restricted species in landscapes dominated by agricultural land. 相似文献
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《Ecology and evolution》2014,4(24):4701-4735
Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species’ threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project – and avert – future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups – including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems – http://www.predicts.org.uk). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015. 相似文献
8.
Matthias Forkel Mirco Migliavacca Kirsten Thonicke Markus Reichstein Sibyll Schaphoff Ulrich Weber Nuno Carvalhais 《Global Change Biology》2015,21(9):3414-3435
Identifying the relative importance of climatic and other environmental controls on the interannual variability and trends in global land surface phenology and greenness is challenging. Firstly, quantifications of land surface phenology and greenness dynamics are impaired by differences between satellite data sets and phenology detection methods. Secondly, dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) that can be used to diagnose controls still reveal structural limitations and contrasting sensitivities to environmental drivers. Thus, we assessed the performance of a new developed phenology module within the LPJmL (Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Lands) DGVM with a comprehensive ensemble of three satellite data sets of vegetation greenness and ten phenology detection methods, thereby thoroughly accounting for observational uncertainties. The improved and tested model allows us quantifying the relative importance of environmental controls on interannual variability and trends of land surface phenology and greenness at regional and global scales. We found that start of growing season interannual variability and trends are in addition to cold temperature mainly controlled by incoming radiation and water availability in temperate and boreal forests. Warming‐induced prolongations of the growing season in high latitudes are dampened by a limited availability of light. For peak greenness, interannual variability and trends are dominantly controlled by water availability and land‐use and land‐cover change (LULCC) in all regions. Stronger greening trends in boreal forests of Siberia than in North America are associated with a stronger increase in water availability from melting permafrost soils. Our findings emphasize that in addition to cold temperatures, water availability is a codominant control for start of growing season and peak greenness trends at the global scale. 相似文献
9.
Fabrizio Albanito Tim Beringer Ronald Corstanje Benjamin Poulter Anna Stephenson Joanna Zawadzka Pete Smith 《Global Change Biology Bioenergy》2016,8(1):81-95
The potential for climate change mitigation by bioenergy crops and terrestrial carbon sinks has been the object of intensive research in the past decade. There has been much debate about whether energy crops used to offset fossil fuel use, or carbon sequestration in forests, would provide the best climate mitigation benefit. Most current food cropland is unlikely to be used for bioenergy, but in many regions of the world, a proportion of cropland is being abandoned, particularly marginal croplands, and some of this land is now being used for bioenergy. In this study, we assess the consequences of land‐use change on cropland. We first identify areas where cropland is so productive that it may never be converted and assess the potential of the remaining cropland to mitigate climate change by identifying which alternative land use provides the best climate benefit: C4 grass bioenergy crops, coppiced woody energy crops or allowing forest regrowth to create a carbon sink. We do not present this as a scenario of land‐use change – we simply assess the best option in any given global location should a land‐use change occur. To do this, we use global biomass potential studies based on food crop productivity, forest inventory data and dynamic global vegetation models to provide, for the first time, a global comparison of the climate change implications of either deploying bioenergy crops or allowing forest regeneration on current crop land, over a period of 20 years starting in the nominal year of 2000 ad . Globally, the extent of cropland on which conversion to energy crops or forest would result in a net carbon loss, and therefore likely always to remain as cropland, was estimated to be about 420.1 Mha, or 35.6% of the total cropland in Africa, 40.3% in Asia and Russia Federation, 30.8% in Europe‐25, 48.4% in North America, 13.7% in South America and 58.5% in Oceania. Fast growing C4 grasses such as Miscanthus and switch‐grass cultivars are the bioenergy feedstock with the highest climate mitigation potential. Fast growing C4 grasses such as Miscanthus and switch‐grass cultivars provide the best climate mitigation option on ≈485 Mha of cropland worldwide with ~42% of this land characterized by a terrain slope equal or above 20%. If that land‐use change did occur, it would displace ≈58.1 Pg fossil fuel C equivalent (Ceq oil). Woody energy crops such as poplar, willow and Eucalyptus species would be the best option on only 2.4% (≈26.3 Mha) of current cropland, and if this land‐use change occurred, it would displace ≈0.9 Pg Ceq oil. Allowing cropland to revert to forest would be the best climate mitigation option on ≈17% of current cropland (≈184.5 Mha), and if this land‐use change occurred, it would sequester ≈5.8 Pg C in biomass in the 20‐year‐old forest and ≈2.7 Pg C in soil. This study is spatially explicit, so also serves to identify the regional differences in the efficacy of different climate mitigation options, informing policymakers developing regionally or nationally appropriate mitigation actions. 相似文献
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Reinhard Prestele Peter Alexander Mark D. A. Rounsevell Almut Arneth Katherine Calvin Jonathan Doelman David A. Eitelberg Kerstin Engström Shinichiro Fujimori Tomoko Hasegawa Petr Havlik Florian Humpenöder Atul K. Jain Tamás Krisztin Page Kyle Prasanth Meiyappan Alexander Popp Ronald D. Sands Rüdiger Schaldach Jan Schüngel Elke Stehfest Andrzej Tabeau Hans Van Meijl Jasper Van Vliet Peter H. Verburg 《Global Change Biology》2016,22(12):3967-3983
Model‐based global projections of future land‐use and land‐cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global‐scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity. 相似文献
12.
James J. Gilroy Paul Woodcock Felicity A. Edwards Charlotte Wheeler Claudia A. Medina Uribe Torbjørn Haugaasen David P. Edwards 《Global Change Biology》2014,20(7):2162-2172
With the rapidly expanding ecological footprint of agriculture, the design of farmed landscapes will play an increasingly important role for both carbon storage and biodiversity protection. Carbon and biodiversity can be enhanced by integrating natural habitats into agricultural lands, but a key question is whether benefits are maximized by including many small features throughout the landscape (‘land‐sharing’ agriculture) or a few large contiguous blocks alongside intensive farmland (‘land‐sparing’ agriculture). In this study, we are the first to integrate carbon storage alongside multi‐taxa biodiversity assessments to compare land‐sparing and land‐sharing frameworks. We do so by sampling carbon stocks and biodiversity (birds and dung beetles) in landscapes containing agriculture and forest within the Colombian Chocó‐Andes, a zone of high global conservation priority. We show that woodland fragments embedded within a matrix of cattle pasture hold less carbon per unit area than contiguous primary or advanced secondary forests (>15 years). Farmland sites also support less diverse bird and dung beetle communities than contiguous forests, even when farmland retains high levels of woodland habitat cover. Landscape simulations based on these data suggest that land‐sparing strategies would be more beneficial for both carbon storage and biodiversity than land‐sharing strategies across a range of production levels. Biodiversity benefits of land‐sparing are predicted to be similar whether spared lands protect primary or advanced secondary forests, owing to the close similarity of bird and dung beetle communities between the two forest classes. Land‐sparing schemes that encourage the protection and regeneration of natural forest blocks thus provide a synergy between carbon and biodiversity conservation, and represent a promising strategy for reducing the negative impacts of agriculture on tropical ecosystems. However, further studies examining a wider range of ecosystem services will be necessary to fully understand the links between land‐allocation strategies and long‐term ecosystem service provision. 相似文献
13.
土地利用/覆被变化通过改变生物栖息地而对物种分布产生影响。以河南省巩义市为研究区域,选取分布在该区域的哺乳动物黄鼬(Mustela sibirica)、蒙古兔(Lepus tolai)和黄喉貂(Martes flavigula)为目标物种,首先依据其生物特性和生态需求,确定了这3个物种的扩散能力;其次,基于景观连接度原理,分析了1990—2011年研究区土地利用整体变化和各类型变化情况,及其对单一物种和多物种栖息地连接度变化的影响。研究结果表明:(1)土地利用整体变化使得栖息地连接度增加,变化范围为22.22%—45.46%;(2)各土地利用类型变化对栖息地连接度的影响差异显著,连接度的升高和降低与栖息地斑块面积增加和减少密切相关;(3)基于多目标物种栖息地整体连接度空间分布图,确定了研究区目标物种保护的关键区域。 相似文献
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土地利用方式和环境因子是影响土壤粒径的重要因素,尺度不同其影响效应差异明显。研究不同尺度表层土壤粒径与土地利用、环境因子的关系对评价黄土丘陵沟壑区土壤物理性质具有积极意义。选择黄土丘陵沟壑区安塞集水区和沐浴小流域作为研究区,探讨两个尺度上表层土壤粒径含量、分布特征及其与土地利用类型和环境因子的关系。研究结果表明:(1)研究区域内表层土壤颗粒主要为砂粒和粉粒,在小流域和集水区尺度上,各粒径百分含量属于中等变异,D值为弱变异,但随着研究区由沐浴小流域变化到安塞集水区,粒径和D值的空间变异性均有所提高;(2)尺度不同,土地利用对土壤粒径的影响效应不同,在沐浴小流域不同土地利用类型的砂粒含量从高到低依次为荒草地农用地林地灌木林地园地,在集水区的变化顺序依次为荒草地灌木林地林地农用地园地,粉粒含量的次序均与砂粒相反,小流域土壤粒径分形维数D依次为灌木林地荒草地林地园地农用地,在安塞集水区为灌木林地荒草地农用地林地园地;(3)在沐浴小流域和安塞集水区,土壤颗粒分形维数与土壤砂粒、黏粒百分含量呈极显著正相关关系,与土壤粉粒百分含量呈极显著负相关关系,且砂质壤土D值高于壤土和粉壤土;(4)在沐浴小流域,植被盖度、相对海拔和坡位相对于土地利用类型、坡向和坡度对土壤粒径影响较大;而在安塞集水区植被盖度、土地利用类型和坡度对土壤粒径影响较大。 相似文献
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针对土地利用空间分形特征只存在于有限尺度域的现象,采用无标度区内离散点拟合的离差平方和平均值最小作为目标函数,提出了一种基于遗传算法的土地利用空间分形特征尺度域的识别方法,用于准确计算分形维数的有效区间范围。以武汉市武昌区水域空间分形特征为例,利用Quickbird多光谱遥感影像提取土地利用空间信息,重点讨论了基于遗传算法识别土地利用空间分形特征尺度域范围的总体思路、适应度函数和遗传算子等环节;然后分别从测定系数、标准差和无标度区间3个角度,将其同人工判断法、相关系数法以及强化系数法进行对比讨论;并结合研究区域实际的水域空间分布格局,分析不同方法计算所得半径维数的合理性。结果表明,土地利用分形特征尺度域的范围对分形维数计算结果有较大影响;相对于传统计算方法来说,遗传算法在尺度无标度区间识别上具有更高的精度,可以为土地利用空间格局分形特征的研究提供客观指导意见。 相似文献
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Questions
Changed land use, nitrogen deposition, climate change, and the spread of non-native species have repeatedly been reported as the main drivers of recent floristic changes in northern Europe. However, the relevance of the geographical scale at which floristic changes are observed is less well understood and it has only rarely been possible to quantify biodiversity loss. Therefore, we assessed changes in species richness, species composition and mean ecological indicator values (EIVs) at three nested geographic scales during two different time periods, each ca 30 years, since the mid-1900s.Location
Two parishes in central Scania, southernmost Sweden.Methods
We analyzed species presence/absence data from three inventories at ca 30-year intervals over 1957–2021 and three geographic scales (157 m2, ca 7 km2 and ca 45 km2) to document temporal trends and differences between geographic scales in terms of species richness, species composition and mean EIVs.Results
We found shifts in species composition across all geographical scales. However, the magnitude of biodiversity loss and the main drivers of these changes were scale-dependent. At the smallest spatial scale, we saw a dramatic loss of plant biodiversity with local species richness in 2021 being only 48% of that of 1960. In contrast, at the larger geographic scales no significant changes in species richness were observed because species losses were compensated for by gains of predominantly non-native species, which made up at least 78% of the new species richness. At the smallest spatial scale, changed land use (ceased grazing/mowing and intensified forestry) appeared as the main driver, while an increasing proportion of non-native species, as well as climatic changes and increasing nitrogen loads appeared relatively more important at larger geographic scales.Conclusion
Our results highlight the precarious situation for biodiversity in the region and at the same time the fundamental importance of geographic scale in studies of biodiversity change. Both the magnitude and drivers of changes may differ depending on the geographic scale and must be considered also when previously published studies are interpreted. 相似文献18.
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We model the carbon balance of European croplands between 1901 and 2000 in response to land use and management changes. The process‐based ORCHIDEE‐STICS model is applied here in a spatially explicit framework. We reconstructed land cover changes, together with an idealized history of agro‐technology. These management parameters include the treatment of straw and stubble residues, application of mineral fertilizers, improvement of cultivar species and tillage. The model is integrated for wheat and maize during the period 1901–2000 forced by climate each 1/2‐hour, and by atmospheric CO2, land cover change and agro‐technology each year. Several tests are performed to identify the most sensitive agro‐technological parameters that control the net biome productivity (NBP) in the 1990s, with NBP equaling for croplands the soil C balance. The current NBP is a small sink of 0.16 t C ha?1 yr?1. The value of NBP per unit area reflects past and current management, and to a minor extent the shrinking areas of arable land consecutive to abandonment during the 20th Century. The uncertainty associated with NBP is large, with a 1‐sigma error of 0.18 t C ha?1 yr?1 obtained from a qualitative, but comprehensive budget of various error terms. The NBP uncertainty is dominated by unknown historical agro‐technology changes (47%) and model structure (27%), with error in climate forcing playing a minor role. A major improvement to the framework would consist in using a larger number of representative crops. The uncertainty of historical land‐use change derived from three different reconstructions, has a surprisingly small effect on NBP (0.01 t C ha?1 yr?1) because cropland area remained stable during the past 20 years in all the tested land use forcing datasets. Regional cross‐validation of modeled NBP against soil C inventory measurements shows that our results are consistent with observations, within the uncertainties of both inventories and model. Our estimation of cropland NBP is however likely to be biased towards a sink, given that inventory data from different regions consistently indicate a small source whereas we model a small sink. 相似文献
20.
Louise Mair Philip J. Harrison Mari Jönsson Swantje Löbel Jenni Nordén Juha Siitonen Tomas Lämås Anders Lundström Tord Snäll 《Ecology and evolution》2017,7(1):368-378
The extensive spatial and temporal coverage of many citizen science datasets (CSD) makes them appealing for use in species distribution modeling and forecasting. However, a frequent limitation is the inability to validate results. Here, we aim to assess the reliability of CSD for forecasting species occurrence in response to national forest management projections (representing 160,366 km2) by comparison against forecasts from a model based on systematically collected colonization–extinction data. We fitted species distribution models using citizen science observations of an old‐forest indicator fungus Phellinus ferrugineofuscus. We applied five modeling approaches (generalized linear model, Poisson process model, Bayesian occupancy model, and two MaxEnt models). Models were used to forecast changes in occurrence in response to national forest management for 2020‐2110. Forecasts of species occurrence from models based on CSD were congruent with forecasts made using the colonization–extinction model based on systematically collected data, although different modeling methods indicated different levels of change. All models projected increased occurrence in set‐aside forest from 2020 to 2110: the projected increase varied between 125% and 195% among models based on CSD, in comparison with an increase of 129% according to the colonization–extinction model. All but one model based on CSD projected a decline in production forest, which varied between 11% and 49%, compared to a decline of 41% using the colonization–extinction model. All models thus highlighted the importance of protected old forest for P. ferrugineofuscus persistence. We conclude that models based on CSD can reproduce forecasts from models based on systematically collected colonization–extinction data and so lead to the same forest management conclusions. Our results show that the use of a suite of models allows CSD to be reliably applied to land management and conservation decision making, demonstrating that widely available CSD can be a valuable forecasting resource. 相似文献