Larger temperature response of autumn leaf senescence than spring leaf‐out phenology

Climate warming is substantially shifting the leaf phenological events of plants, and thereby impacting on their individual fitness and also on the structure and functioning of ecosystems. Previous studies have largely focused on the climate impact on spring phenology, and to date the processes underlying leaf senescence and their associated environmental drivers remain poorly understood. In this study, experiments with temperature gradients imposed during the summer and autumn were conducted on saplings of European beech to explore the temperature responses of leaf senescence. An additional warming experiment during winter enabled us to assess the differences in temperature responses of spring leaf‐out and autumn leaf senescence. We found that warming significantly delayed the dates of leaf senescence both during summer and autumn warming, with similar temperature sensitivities (6–8 days delay per °C warming), suggesting that, in the absence of water and nutrient limitation, temperature may be a dominant factor controlling the leaf senescence in European beech. Interestingly, we found a significantly larger temperature response of autumn leaf senescence than of spring leaf‐out. This suggests a possible larger contribution of delays in autumn senescence, than of the advancement in spring leaf‐out, to extending the growing season under future warmer conditions.     

陆地生态系统过程对气候变暖的响应与适应

陆地生态系统包含一系列时空连续、尺度多元且互相联系的生态学过程。由于大部分生态学过程都受到温度调控, 因此气候变暖会对全球陆地生态系统产生深远的影响。近年来, 全球变化生态学的基本科学问题之一是陆地生态系统的关键过程如何响应与适应全球气候变暖。围绕该问题, 该文梳理了近年来的研究进展, 重点关注植物生理生态过程、物候期、群落动态、生产力及其分配、凋落物与土壤有机质分解、养分循环等过程对温度升高的响应与适应机理。通过定量分析近20年来发表于主流期刊的相关论文, 展望了该领域的前沿方向, 包括物种性状对生态系统过程的预测能力, 生物地球化学循环的耦合过程, 极端高温与低温事件的响应与适应机理, 不对称气候变暖的影响机理和基于过程的生态系统模拟预测等。基于这些研究进展, 该文建议进一步研究陆地生态系统如何适应气候变暖, 更多关注我国的特色生态系统类型, 并整合实验、观测或模型等研究手段开展跨尺度的合作研究。     

Moving forward in global‐change ecology: capitalizing on natural variability

Natural resources managers are being asked to follow practices that accommodate for the impact of climate change on the ecosystems they manage, while global‐ecosystems modelers aim to forecast future responses under different climate scenarios. However, the lack of scientific knowledge about short‐term ecosystem responses to climate change has made it difficult to define set conservation practices or to realistically inform ecosystem models. Until recently, the main goal for ecologists was to study the composition and structure of communities and their implications for ecosystem function, but due to the probable magnitude and irreversibility of climate‐change effects (species extinctions and loss of ecosystem function), a shorter term focus on responses of ecosystems to climate change is needed. We highlight several underutilized approaches for studying the ecological consequences of climate change that capitalize on the natural variability of the climate system at different temporal and spatial scales. For example, studying organismal responses to extreme climatic events can inform about the resilience of populations to global warming and contribute to the assessment of local extinctions. Translocation experiments and gene expression are particular useful to quantitate a species' acclimation potential to global warming. And studies along environmental gradients can guide habitat restoration and protection programs by identifying vulnerable species and sites. These approaches identify the processes and mechanisms underlying species acclimation to changing conditions, combine different analytical approaches, and can be used to improve forecasts of the short‐term impacts of climate change and thus inform conservation practices and ecosystem models in a meaningful way.     

Response and adaptation of terrestrial ecosystem processes to climate warming

陆地生态系统包含一系列时空连续、尺度多元且互相联系的生态学过程。由于大部分生态学过程都受到温度调控, 因此气候变暖会对全球陆地生态系统产生深远的影响。近年来, 全球变化生态学的基本科学问题之一是陆地生态系统的关键过程如何响应与适应全球气候变暖。围绕该问题, 该文梳理了近年来的研究进展, 重点关注植物生理生态过程、物候期、群落动态、生产力及其分配、凋落物与土壤有机质分解、养分循环等过程对温度升高的响应与适应机理。通过定量分析近20年来发表于主流期刊的相关论文, 展望了该领域的前沿方向, 包括物种性状对生态系统过程的预测能力, 生物地球化学循环的耦合过程, 极端高温与低温事件的响应与适应机理, 不对称气候变暖的影响机理和基于过程的生态系统模拟预测等。基于这些研究进展, 该文建议进一步研究陆地生态系统如何适应气候变暖, 更多关注我国的特色生态系统类型, 并整合实验、观测或模型等研究手段开展跨尺度的合作研究。     

Identifying the microbial taxa that consistently respond to soil warming across time and space

Soil microbial communities are the key drivers of many terrestrial biogeochemical processes. However, we currently lack a generalizable understanding of how these soil communities will change in response to predicted increases in global temperatures and which microbial lineages will be most impacted. Here, using high‐throughput marker gene sequencing of soils collected from 18 sites throughout North America included in a 100‐day laboratory incubation experiment, we identified a core group of abundant and nearly ubiquitous soil microbes that shift in relative abundance with elevated soil temperatures. We then validated and narrowed our list of temperature‐sensitive microbes by comparing the results from this laboratory experiment with data compiled from 210 soils representing multiple, independent global field studies sampled across spatial gradients with a wide range in mean annual temperatures. Our results reveal predictable and consistent responses to temperature for a core group of 189 ubiquitous soil bacterial and archaeal taxa, with these taxa exhibiting similar temperature responses across a broad range of soil types. These microbial ‘bioindicators’ are useful for understanding how soil microbial communities respond to warming and to discriminate between the direct and indirect effects of soil warming on microbial communities. Those taxa that were found to be sensitive to temperature represented a wide range of lineages and the direction of the temperature responses were not predictable from phylogeny alone, indicating that temperature responses are difficult to predict from simply describing soil microbial communities at broad taxonomic or phylogenetic levels of resolution. Together, these results lay the foundation for a more predictive understanding of how soil microbial communities respond to soil warming and how warming may ultimately lead to changes in soil biogeochemical processes.     

Long-term warming affects ecosystem functioning through species turnover and intraspecific trait variation

Effects of climate change on natural ecosystems can be mediated by ecological processes, but also by rapid evolutionary adaptations and/or non-heritable trait changes in organisms. So far, most studies testing the importance of inter- versus intraspecific changes for how communities and their functioning responds to climate change are either short-term laboratory experiments in highly controlled (artificial) environments, or long-term field surveys suffering from lack of experimental manipulation. Here, we quantified how community composition and functioning has changed in response to long-term warming, including the potential direct and indirect effects via immediate and delayed physiological, non-heritable plastic, ecological, evolutionary and eco-evolutionary responses. We used a site-for-time approach, sampling sites in an artificially heated basin and a nearby area to quantify how >30 years of experimental warming in situ affects benthic grazer communities and traits of grazer taxa, as well as their contribution to a key ecosystem function: grazing on filamentous algae. The community composition shifted with warming, because a non-native species was highly common, and taxa with higher mobility, became more common in the heated areas compared to the control sites. Warming altered community functioning but the underlying mechanisms varied between traits: increased metabolism was caused by intraspecific trait change, while increased grazing rate was mainly driven by species turnover. Our results suggest that both population- and community-level processes mediate the responses of natural communities to long-term environmental change, and that the ongoing warming of coastal waters is likely to alter the functioning of key marine ecosystems.     

Effects of three global change drivers on terrestrial C:N:P stoichiometry: a global synthesis

Over the last few decades, there has been an increasing number of controlled‐manipulative experiments to investigate how plants and soils might respond to global change. These experiments typically examined the effects of each of three global change drivers [i.e., nitrogen (N) deposition, warming, and elevated CO₂] on primary productivity and on the biogeochemistry of carbon (C), N, and phosphorus (P) across different terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we capitalize on this large amount of information by performing a comprehensive meta‐analysis (>2000 case studies worldwide) to address how C:N:P stoichiometry of plants, soils, and soil microbial biomass might respond to individual vs. combined effects of the three global change drivers. Our results show that (i) individual effects of N addition and elevated CO₂ on C:N:P stoichiometry are stronger than warming, (ii) combined effects of pairs of global change drivers (e.g., N addition + elevated CO₂, warming + elevated CO₂) on C:N:P stoichiometry were generally weaker than the individual effects of each of these drivers, (iii) additive interactions (i.e., when combined effects are equal to or not significantly different from the sum of individual effects) were more common than synergistic or antagonistic interactions, (iv) C:N:P stoichiometry of soil and soil microbial biomass shows high homeostasis under global change manipulations, and (v) C:N:P responses to global change are strongly affected by ecosystem type, local climate, and experimental conditions. Our study is one of the first to compare individual vs. combined effects of the three global change drivers on terrestrial C:N:P ratios using a large set of data. To further improve our understanding of how ecosystems might respond to future global change, long‐term ecosystem‐scale studies testing multifactor effects on plants and soils are urgently required across different world regions.     

Mountain soils under a changing climate and land-use

Mountain ecosystems are currently experiencing the strongest climatic warming and the largest changes in land-use during the last millennia. The impacts of these changes on soils and their roles in the cycling of carbon and nutrients are, however, largely unknown. Here, we define mountain soils as soils from mountainous areas with cool summers and cold winters and thus, soils from ecosystems that are influenced by snow and ice and where biogeochemical processes are limited by temperature. Because climatic conditions, soil properties, plant species and productivity vary at a small scale in mountains, they provide a unique natural but a seldom used laboratory to study soil processes. In this special issue, we compile different studies on soils from European mountains, reaching from the functioning of mountain soils along natural climatic gradients to responses of greenhouse gas fluxes from mountain soils to experimental warming, soil frost and changes in precipitation.     

Is the Sonoran Desert losing its cool?

Freezing temperatures strongly influence vegetation in the hottest desert of North America, in part determining both its overall boundary and distributions of plant species within. To evaluate recent variability of freezing temperatures in this context, minimum temperature data from weather stations in the Sonoran Desert are examined. Data show widespread warming trends in winter and spring, decreased frequency of freezing temperatures, lengthening of the freeze‐free season, and increased minimum temperatures per winter year. Local land use and multidecadal modes of the global climate system such as the Pacific decadal oscillation and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation do not appear to be principal drivers of this warming. Minimum temperature variability in the Sonoran Desert does, however, correspond to global temperature variability attributed to human‐dominated global warming. With warming expected to continue at faster rates throughout the 21st century, potential ecological responses may include contraction of the overall boundary of the Sonoran Desert in the south‐east and expansion northward, eastward, and upward in elevation, as well as changes to distributions of plant species within and other characteristics of Sonoran Desert ecosystems. Potential trajectories of vegetation change in the Sonoran Desert region may be affected or made more difficult to predict by uncertain changes in warm season precipitation variability and fire. Opportunities now exist to investigate ecosystem response to regional climate disturbance, as well as to anticipate and plan for continued warming in the Sonoran Desert region.     

Influence of multiple global change drivers on terrestrial carbon storage: additive effects are common

The interactive effects of multiple global change drivers on terrestrial carbon (C) storage remain poorly understood. Here, we synthesise data from 633 published studies to show how the interactive effects of multiple drivers are generally additive (i.e. not differing from the sum of their individual effects) rather than synergistic or antagonistic. We further show that (1) elevated CO₂, warming, N addition, P addition and increased rainfall, all exerted positive individual effects on plant C pools at both single‐plant and plant‐community levels; (2) plant C pool responses to individual or combined effects of multiple drivers are seldom scale‐dependent (i.e. not differing from single‐plant to plant‐community levels) and (3) soil and microbial biomass C pools are significantly less sensitive than plant C pools to individual or combined effects. We provide a quantitative basis for integrating additive effects of multiple global change drivers into future assessments of the C storage ability of terrestrial ecosystems.     

Warming weakens facilitative interactions between decomposers and detritivores,and modifies freshwater ecosystem functioning

Warming is among the major drivers of changes in biotic interactions and, in turn, ecosystem functioning. The decomposition process occurs in a chain of facilitative interactions between detritivores and microorganisms. It remains unclear, however, what effect warming may have on the interrelations between detritivores and microorganisms, and the consequences for the functioning of natural freshwater ecosystems. To address these gaps, we performed a field experiment using tank bromeliads and their associated aquatic fauna. We manipulated the presence of bacteria and detritivorous macroinvertebrates (control, “bacteria,” and “bacteria + macroinvertebrates”) under ambient and warming scenarios, and analyzed the effects on the microorganisms and ecosystem functioning (detritus mass loss, colored dissolved organic matter, and nitrogen flux). We applied antibiotic solution to eliminate or reduce bacteria from control bromeliads. After 60 days incubation, bacterial density was higher in the presence than in the absence of macroinvertebrates. In the absence of macroinvertebrates, temperature did not influence bacterial density. However, in the presence of macroinvertebrates, bacterial density decreased by 54% with warming. The magnitude of the effects of organisms on ecosystem functioning was higher in the combined presence of bacteria and macroinvertebrates. However, warming reduced the overall positive effects of detritivores on bacterial density, which in turn, cascaded down to ecosystem functioning by decreasing decomposition and nitrogen flux. These results show the existence of facilitative mechanisms between bacteria and detritivores in the decomposition process, which might collapse due to warming. Detritivores seem to contribute to nutrient cycling as they facilitate bacterial populations, probably by increasing nutrient input (feces) in the ecosystem. However, increased temperature mitigated these beneficial effects. Our results add to a growing research body that shows that warming can affect the structure of aquatic communities, and highlight the importance of considering the interactive effects between facilitation and climatic drivers on the functioning of freshwater ecosystems.     

Biodiversity mediates top–down control in eelgrass ecosystems: a global comparative‐experimental approach

Nutrient pollution and reduced grazing each can stimulate algal blooms as shown by numerous experiments. But because experiments rarely incorporate natural variation in environmental factors and biodiversity, conditions determining the relative strength of bottom–up and top–down forcing remain unresolved. We factorially added nutrients and reduced grazing at 15 sites across the range of the marine foundation species eelgrass (Zostera marina) to quantify how top–down and bottom–up control interact with natural gradients in biodiversity and environmental forcing. Experiments confirmed modest top–down control of algae, whereas fertilisation had no general effect. Unexpectedly, grazer and algal biomass were better predicted by cross‐site variation in grazer and eelgrass diversity than by global environmental gradients. Moreover, these large‐scale patterns corresponded strikingly with prior small‐scale experiments. Our results link global and local evidence that biodiversity and top–down control strongly influence functioning of threatened seagrass ecosystems, and suggest that biodiversity is comparably important to global change stressors.     

Opening the black box of plant nutrient uptake under warming predicts global patterns in community biomass and biological carbon storage

The effect of climate change on the amount of carbon stored in the different biological compartments of complex natural communities is relevant for a range of ecosystem functions and services. Temperature‐dependency of many physiological and ecological processes drives this storage capacity. As opposed to other physiological rates, the temperature‐dependence of nutrient uptake by plants has, to date, not been thoroughly investigated and therefore was not explicitly included in food web models. In a meta‐study, we extracted experimental data to establish the temperature‐dependence of the parameters determining plant nutrient uptake. Overall, we found an increase in the maximum uptake rate, as well as the half‐saturation density. As the respiration rates of plants (biomass loss) increase more strongly than the nutrient uptake rates (driving biomass gain under nutrient limitation), our results suggest that warming should decrease plant biomass. We applied these temperature‐dependent nutrient uptake rates by plants to a model of a three‐level food‐chain composed of two nutrients, a plant pool, and an herbivore pool. Having established plant nutrient uptake rates based on real data to replace the previously used assumption of logistic growth, we were able to use realistic natural nutrient deposition rates as the input variables in this model. This mechanistic model approach allowed us to show the quantitative responses of natural communities to realistic fertilization rates for the first time. We ran the model under realistic nutrient supply scenarios based on deposition data from the literature, adding a scenario of anthropogenic fertilization. We found decreases in overall community biomass with increasing temperature, but the intensity of this decrease varied strongly depending on the nutrient supply scenario. Our findings highlight the importance of including other global change drivers besides warming, as they can mediate the temperature impact on changes in global carbon storage and thus biomass‐related ecosystem services.     

A decade of climate change experiments on marine organisms: procedures,patterns and problems

The first decade of the new millennium saw a flurry of experiments to establish a mechanistic understanding of how climate change might transform the global biota, including marine organisms. However, the biophysical properties of the marine environment impose challenges to experiments, which can weaken their inference space. To facilitate strengthening the experimental evidence for possible ecological consequences of climate change, we reviewed the physical, biological and procedural scope of 110 marine climate change experiments published between 2000 and 2009. We found that 65% of these experiments only tested a single climate change factor (warming or acidification), 54% targeted temperate organisms, 58% were restricted to a single species and 73% to benthic invertebrates. In addition, 49% of the reviewed experiments had issues with the experimental design, principally related to replication of the main test‐factors (temperature or pH), and only 11% included field assessments of processes or associated patterns. Guiding future research by this inventory of current strengths and weaknesses will expand the overall inference space of marine climate change experiments. Specifically, increased effort is required in five areas: (i) the combined effects of concurrent climate and non‐climate stressors; (ii) responses of a broader range of species, particularly from tropical and polar regions as well as primary producers, pelagic invertebrates, and fish; (iii) species interactions and responses of species assemblages, (iv) reducing pseudo‐replication in controlled experiments; and (v) increasing realism in experiments through broad‐scale observations and field experiments. Attention in these areas will improve the generality and accuracy of our understanding of climate change as a driver of biological change in marine ecosystems.     

Coordinated approaches to quantify long‐term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change

Many serious ecosystem consequences of climate change will take decades or even centuries to emerge. Long‐term ecological responses to global change are strongly regulated by slow processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by long‐lived plants, and accumulation of nutrient capitals. Understanding and predicting these processes require experiments on decadal time scales. But decadal experiments by themselves may not be adequate because many of the slow processes have characteristic time scales much longer than experiments can be maintained. This article promotes a coordinated approach that combines long‐term, large‐scale global change experiments with process studies and modeling. Long‐term global change manipulative experiments, especially in high‐priority ecosystems such as tropical forests and high‐latitude regions, are essential to maximize information gain concerning future states of the earth system. The long‐term experiments should be conducted in tandem with complementary process studies, such as those using model ecosystems, species replacements, laboratory incubations, isotope tracers, and greenhouse facilities. Models are essential to assimilate data from long‐term experiments and process studies together with information from long‐term observations, surveys, and space‐for‐time studies along environmental and biological gradients. Future research programs with coordinated long‐term experiments, process studies, and modeling have the potential to be the most effective strategy to gain the best information on long‐term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change.     

Effects of climate warming on carbon fluxes in grasslands— A global meta‐analysis

Climate warming will affect terrestrial ecosystems in many ways, and warming‐induced changes in terrestrial carbon (C) cycling could accelerate or slow future warming. So far, warming experiments have shown a wide range of C flux responses, across and within biome types. However, past meta‐analyses of C flux responses have lacked sufficient sample size to discern relative responses for a given biome type. For instance grasslands contribute greatly to global terrestrial C fluxes, and to date grassland warming experiments provide the opportunity to evaluate concurrent responses of both plant and soil C fluxes. Here, we compiled data from 70 sites (in total 622 observations) to evaluate the response of C fluxes to experimental warming across three grassland types (cold, temperate, and semi‐arid), warming methods, and short (≤3 years) and longer‐term (>3 years) experiment lengths. Overall, our meta‐analysis revealed that experimental warming stimulated C fluxes in grassland ecosystems with regard to both plant production (e.g., net primary productivity (NPP) 15.4%; aboveground NPP (ANPP) by 7.6%, belowground NPP (BNPP) by 11.6%) and soil respiration (Rs) (9.5%). However, the magnitude of C flux stimulation varied significantly across cold, temperate and semi‐arid grasslands, in that responses for most C fluxes were larger in cold than temperate or semi‐arid ecosystems. In semi‐arid and temperate grasslands, ecosystem respiration (Reco) was more sensitive to warming than gross primary productivity (GPP), while the opposite was observed for cold grasslands, where warming produced a net increase in whole‐ecosystem C storage. However, the stimulatory effect of warming on ANPP and Rs observed in short‐term studies (≤3 years) in both cold and temperate grasslands disappeared in longer‐term experiments (>3 years). These results highlight the importance of conducting long‐term warming experiments, and in examining responses across a wide range of climate.     

Convergent ecosystem responses to 23‐year ambient and manipulated warming link advancing snowmelt and shrub encroachment to transient and long‐term climate–soil carbon feedback

Ecosystem responses to climate change can exert positive or negative feedbacks on climate, mediated in part by slow‐moving factors such as shifts in vegetation community composition. Long‐term experimental manipulations can be used to examine such ecosystem responses, but they also present another opportunity: inferring the extent to which contemporary climate change is responsible for slow changes in ecosystems under ambient conditions. Here, using 23 years of data, we document a shift from nonwoody to woody vegetation and a loss of soil carbon in ambient plots and show that these changes track previously shown similar but faster changes under experimental warming. This allows us to infer that climate change is the cause of the observed shifts in ambient vegetation and soil carbon and that the vegetation responses mediate the observed changes in soil carbon. Our findings demonstrate the realism of an experimental manipulation, allow attribution of a climate cause to observed ambient ecosystem changes, and demonstrate how a combination of long‐term study of ambient and experimental responses to warming can identify mechanistic drivers needed for realistic predictions of the conditions under which ecosystems are likely to become carbon sources or sinks over varying timescales.     

Urgent need for warming experiments in tropical forests

Although tropical forests account for only a fraction of the planet's terrestrial surface, they exchange more carbon dioxide with the atmosphere than any other biome on Earth, and thus play a disproportionate role in the global climate. In the next 20 years, the tropics will experience unprecedented warming, yet there is exceedingly high uncertainty about their potential responses to this imminent climatic change. Here, we prioritize research approaches given both funding and logistical constraints in order to resolve major uncertainties about how tropical forests function and also to improve predictive capacity of earth system models. We investigate overall model uncertainty of tropical latitudes and explore the scientific benefits and inevitable trade‐offs inherent in large‐scale manipulative field experiments. With a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 analysis, we found that model variability in projected net ecosystem production was nearly 3 times greater in the tropics than for any other latitude. Through a review of the most current literature, we concluded that manipulative warming experiments are vital to accurately predict future tropical forest carbon balance, and we further recommend the establishment of a network of comparable studies spanning gradients of precipitation, edaphic qualities, plant types, and/or land use change. We provide arguments for long‐term, single‐factor warming experiments that incorporate warming of the most biogeochemically active ecosystem components (i.e. leaves, roots, soil microbes). Hypothesis testing of underlying mechanisms should be a priority, along with improving model parameterization and constraints. No single tropical forest is representative of all tropical forests; therefore logistical feasibility should be the most important consideration for locating large‐scale manipulative experiments. Above all, we advocate for multi‐faceted research programs, and we offer arguments for what we consider the most powerful and urgent way forward in order to improve our understanding of tropical forest responses to climate change.     

Soil respiration under climate warming: differential response of heterotrophic and autotrophic respiration

Despite decades of research, how climate warming alters the global flux of soil respiration is still poorly characterized. Here, we use meta‐analysis to synthesize 202 soil respiration datasets from 50 ecosystem warming experiments across multiple terrestrial ecosystems. We found that, on average, warming by 2 °C increased soil respiration by 12% during the early warming years, but warming‐induced drought partially offset this effect. More significantly, the two components of soil respiration, heterotrophic respiration and autotrophic respiration showed distinct responses. The warming effect on autotrophic respiration was not statistically detectable during the early warming years, but nonetheless decreased with treatment duration. In contrast, warming by 2 °C increased heterotrophic respiration by an average of 21%, and this stimulation remained stable over the warming duration. This result challenged the assumption that microbial activity would acclimate to the rising temperature. Together, our findings demonstrate that distinguishing heterotrophic respiration and autotrophic respiration would allow us better understand and predict the long‐term response of soil respiration to warming. The dependence of soil respiration on soil moisture condition also underscores the importance of incorporating warming‐induced soil hydrological changes when modeling soil respiration under climate change.     

Arctic warming on two continents has consistent negative effects on lichen diversity and mixed effects on bryophyte diversity

Little is known about the impact of changing temperature regimes on composition and diversity of cryptogam communities in the Arctic and Subarctic, despite the well‐known importance of lichens and bryophytes to the functioning and climate feedbacks of northern ecosystems. We investigated changes in diversity and abundance of lichens and bryophytes within long‐term (9–16 years) warming experiments and along natural climatic gradients, ranging from Swedish subarctic birch forest and subarctic/subalpine tundra to Alaskan arctic tussock tundra. In both Sweden and Alaska, lichen diversity responded negatively to experimental warming (with the exception of a birch forest) and to higher temperatures along climatic gradients. Bryophytes were less sensitive to experimental warming than lichens, but depending on the length of the gradient, bryophyte diversity decreased both with increasing temperatures and at extremely low temperatures. Among bryophytes, Sphagnum mosses were particularly resistant to experimental warming in terms of both abundance and diversity. Temperature, on both continents, was the main driver of species composition within experiments and along gradients, with the exception of the Swedish subarctic birch forest where amount of litter constituted the best explanatory variable. In a warming experiment in moist acidic tussock tundra in Alaska, temperature together with soil ammonium availability were the most important factors influencing species composition. Overall, dwarf shrub abundance (deciduous and evergreen) was positively related to warming but so were the bryophytes Sphagnum girgensohnii, Hylocomium splendens and Pleurozium schreberi; the majority of other cryptogams showed a negative relationship to warming. This unique combination of intercontinental comparison, natural gradient studies and experimental studies shows that cryptogam diversity and abundance, especially within lichens, is likely to decrease under arctic climate warming. Given the many ecosystem processes affected by cryptogams in high latitudes (e.g. carbon sequestration, N₂‐fixation, trophic interactions), these changes will have important feedback consequences for ecosystem functions and climate.