Evolutionary potential of morphological traits across different life‐history stages

Despite accumulating examples of selection acting on heritable traits in the wild, predicted evolutionary responses are often different from observed phenotypic trends. Various explanations have been suggested for these mismatches. These include within‐individual changes across lifespan that can create important variation in genetic architecture of traits and selection acting on them, but also potential problems with the methodological approach used to predict evolutionary responses of traits. Here, we used an 8‐year data set on tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) to first assess the effects of differences among three nestling life‐history stages on the genetic (co)variances of two morphological traits (body mass and primary feather length) and the selection acting on them over three generations. We then estimated the evolutionary potential of these traits by predicting their evolutionary responses using the breeder's equation and the secondary theorem of selection approaches. Our results showed variation in strength and direction of selection and slight changes in trait variance across ages. Predicted evolutionary responses differed importantly between both approaches for half of the trait–age combinations we studied, suggesting the presence of environmentally induced correlations between focal traits and fitness possibly biasing breeder's equation predictions. Our results emphasize that predictions of evolutionary potential for morphological traits are likely to be highly variable, both in strength and direction, depending on the life stage and method used, thus mitigating our capacity to predict adaptation and persistence of wild populations.     

The danger of applying the breeder's equation in observational studies of natural populations

The breeder's equation, which predicts evolutionary change when a phenotypic covariance exists between a heritable trait and fitness, has provided a key conceptual framework for studies of adaptive microevolution in nature. However, its application requires strong assumptions to be made about the causation of fitness variation. In its univariate form, the breeder's equation assumes that the trait of interest is not correlated with other traits having causal effects on fitness. In its multivariate form, the validity of predicted change rests on the assumption that all such correlated traits have been measured and incorporated into the analysis. Here, we (i) highlight why these assumptions are likely to be seriously violated in studies of natural, rather than artificial, selection and (ii) advocate wider use of the Robertson–Price identity as a more robust, and less assumption‐laden, alternative to the breeder's equation for applications in evolutionary ecology.     

The genetic basis of traits regulating sperm competition and polyandry: can selection favour the evolution of good- and sexy-sperm?

The good-sperm and sexy-sperm (GS-SS) hypotheses predict that female multiple mating (polyandry) can fuel sexual selection for heritable male traits that promote success in sperm competition. A major prediction generated by these models, therefore, is that polyandry will benefit females indirectly via their sons' enhanced fertilization success. Furthermore, like classic 'good genes' and 'sexy son' models for the evolution of female preferences, GS-SS processes predict a genetic correlation between genes for female mating frequency (analogous to the female preference) and those for traits influencing fertilization success (the sexually selected traits). We examine the premise for these predictions by exploring the genetic basis of traits thought to influence fertilization success and female mating frequency. We also highlight recent debates that stress the possible genetic constraints to evolution of traits influencing fertilization success via GS-SS processes, including sex-linked inheritance, nonadditive effects, interacting parental genotypes, and trade-offs between integrated ejaculate components. Despite these possible constraints, the available data suggest that male traits involved in sperm competition typically exhibit substantial additive genetic variance and rapid evolutionary responses to selection. Nevertheless, the limited data on the genetic variation in female mating frequency implicate strong genetic maternal effects, including X-linkage, which is inconsistent with GS-SS processes. Although the relative paucity of studies on the genetic basis of polyandry does not allow us to draw firm conclusions about the evolutionary origins of this trait, the emerging pattern of sex linkage in genes for polyandry is more consistent with an evolutionary history of antagonistic selection over mating frequency. We advocate further development of GS-SS theory to take account of the complex evolutionary dynamics imposed by sexual conflict over mating frequency.     

Predicting evolutionary potential: A numerical test of evolvability measures

Despite sophisticated mathematical models, the theory of microevolution is mostly treated as a qualitative rather than a quantitative tool. Numerical measures of selection, constraints, and evolutionary potential are often too loosely connected to theory to provide operational predictions of the response to selection. In this paper, we study the ability of a set of operational measures of evolvability and constraint to predict short‐term selection responses generated by individual‐based simulations. We focus on the effects of selective constraints under which the response in one trait is impeded by stabilizing selection on other traits. The conditional evolvability is a measure of evolutionary potential explicitly developed for this situation. We show that the conditional evolvability successfully predicts rates of evolution in an equilibrium situation, and further that these equilibria are reached with characteristic times that are inversely proportional to the fitness load generated by the constraining characters. Overall, we find that evolvabilities and conditional evolvabilities bracket responses to selection, and that they together can be used to quantify evolutionary potential on time scales where the G‐matrix remains relatively constant.     

Contribution of maternal effects to dietary selection in Mediterranean fruit flies

Individual responses to dietary variation represent a fundamental component of fitness, and nutritional adaptation can occur over just a few generations. Maternal effects can show marked proximate responses to nutrition, but whether they contribute to longer term dietary adaptation is unclear. Here, we tested the hypotheses that maternal effects: (i) contribute to dietary adaptation, (ii) diminish when dietary conditions are constant between generations, (iii) are trait‐specific and (iv) interact with high‐ and low‐quality food. We used experimental evolution regimes in the medfly (Ceratitis capitata) to test these predictions by subjecting an outbred laboratory‐adapted population to replicated experimental evolution on either constant high calorie sugar (‘A’) or low‐calorie starch (‘S’) larval diets, with a standard adult diet across both regimes. We measured the contribution of maternal effects by comparing developmental and adult phenotypes of individuals reared on their own diet with those swapped onto the opposite diet for either one or two generations (high and low maternal effect conditions, respectively), both at the start and after 30 generations of selection. Initially, there were strong maternal effects on female body mass and male mating success but not larval survival. Interestingly, the initial maternal effects observed in female body mass and male mating success showed sex‐specific interactions when individuals from high calorie regimes were tested on low calorie diets. However, as populations responded to selection, the effects of maternal provisioning on all traits diminished. The results broadly supported the predictions. They show how the contribution of maternal effects to dietary responses evolves in a context‐dependent manner, with significant variation across different fitness‐related traits. We conclude that maternal effects can evolve during nutritional adaptation and hence may be an important life history trait to measure, rather than to routinely minimize.     

The role of maternal and paternal effects in the evolution of parental quality by sexual selection

Genetic models of maternal effects and models of mate choice have focused on the evolutionary effects of variation in parental quality. There have been, however, few attempts to combine these into a single model for the evolution of sexually selected traits. We present a quantitative genetic model that considers how male and female parental quality (together or separately) affect the expression of a sexually selected offspring trait. We allow female choice of males based on this parentally affected trait and examine the evolution of mate choice, parental quality and the indicator trait. Our model reveals a number of consequences of maternal and paternal effects. (1) The force of sexual selection owing to adaptive mate choice can displace parental quality from its natural selection optimum. (2) The force of sexual selection can displace female parental quality from its natural selection optimum even when nonadaptive mate choice occurs (e.g. runaway sexual selection), because females of higher parental quality produce more attractive sons and these sons counterbalance the loss in fitness owing to over-investment in each offspring. (3) Maternal and paternal effects can provide a source of genetic variation for offspring traits, allowing evolution by sexual selection even when those traits do not show direct genetic variation (i.e. are not heritable). (4) The correlation between paternal investment and the offspring trait influenced by the parental effects can result in adaptive mate choice and lead to the elaboration of both female preference and the male sexually selected trait. When parental effects exist, sexual selection can drive the evolution of parental quality when investment increases the attractiveness of offspring, leading to the elaboration of indicator traits and higher than expected levels of parental investment.     

One size fits all? Determinants of sperm transfer in a highly dimorphic orb‐web spider

The evolutionary significance of widespread hypo‐allometric scaling of genital traits in combination with rapid interspecific genital trait divergence has been of key interest to evolutionary biologists for many years and remains poorly understood. Here, we provide a detailed assessment of quantitative genital trait variation in males and females of the sexually highly dimorphic and cannibalistic orb‐weaving spider Argiope aurantia. We then test how this trait variation relates to sperm transfer success. In particular, we test specific predictions of the one‐size‐fits‐all and lock‐and‐key hypotheses for the evolution of genital characters. We use video‐taped staged matings in a controlled environment with subsequent morphological microdissections and sperm count analyses. We find little support for the prediction of the one‐size‐fits‐all hypothesis for the evolution of hypo‐allometric scaling of genital traits, namely that intermediate trait dimensions confer highest sperm transfer success. Likewise, our findings do not support the prediction of the lock‐and‐key hypothesis that a tight fit of male and female genital traits mediates highest sperm transfer success. We do, however, detect directional effects of a number of male and female genital characters on sperm transfer, suggesting that genital trait dimensions are commonly under selection in nature. Importantly, even though females are much larger than males, spermatheca size limits the number of sperm transferred, contradicting a previous hypothesis about the evolutionary consequences of genital size dimorphism in extremely size‐dimorphic taxa. We also find strong positive effects of male body size and copulation duration on the probability of sperm transfer and the number of sperm transferred, with implications for the evolution of extreme sexual size dimorphism and sexual cannibalism in orb weavers.     

Heritability of flight and resting metabolic rates in the Glanville fritillary butterfly

Dispersal capacity is a key life‐history trait especially in species inhabiting fragmented landscapes. Evolutionary models predict that, given sufficient heritable variation, dispersal rate responds to natural selection imposed by habitat loss and fragmentation. Here, we estimate phenotypic variance components and heritability of flight and resting metabolic rates (RMRs) in an ecological model species, the Glanville fritillary butterfly, in which flight metabolic rate (FMR) is known to correlate strongly with dispersal rate. We modelled a two‐generation pedigree with the animal model to distinguish additive genetic variance from maternal and common environmental effects. The results show that FMR is significantly heritable, with additive genetic variance accounting for about 40% of total phenotypic variance; thus, FMR has the potential to respond to selection on dispersal capacity. Maternal influences on flight metabolism were negligible. Heritability of flight metabolism was context dependent, as in stressful thermal conditions, environmentally induced variation dominated over additive genetic effects. There was no heritability in RMR, which was instead strongly influenced by maternal effects. This study contributes to a mechanistic understanding of the evolution of dispersal‐related traits, a pressing question in view of the challenges posed to many species by changing climate and fragmentation of natural habitats.     

Selection on skewed characters and the paradox of stasis

Observed phenotypic responses to selection in the wild often differ from predictions based on measurements of selection and genetic variance. An overlooked hypothesis to explain this paradox of stasis is that a skewed phenotypic distribution affects natural selection and evolution. We show through mathematical modeling that, when a trait selected for an optimum phenotype has a skewed distribution, directional selection is detected even at evolutionary equilibrium, where it causes no change in the mean phenotype. When environmental effects are skewed, Lande and Arnold's (1983) directional gradient is in the direction opposite to the skew. In contrast, skewed breeding values can displace the mean phenotype from the optimum, causing directional selection in the direction of the skew. These effects can be partitioned out using alternative selection estimates based on average derivatives of individual relative fitness, or additive genetic covariances between relative fitness and trait (Robertson–Price identity). We assess the validity of these predictions using simulations of selection estimation under moderate sample sizes. Ecologically relevant traits may commonly have skewed distributions, as we here exemplify with avian laying date — repeatedly described as more evolutionarily stable than expected — so this skewness should be accounted for when investigating evolutionary dynamics in the wild.     

Genetic architecture of survival and fitness-related traits in two populations of Atlantic salmon

The additive genetic effects of traits can be used to predict evolutionary trajectories, such as responses to selection. Non-additive genetic and maternal environmental effects can also change evolutionary trajectories and influence phenotypes, but these effects have received less attention by researchers. We partitioned the phenotypic variance of survival and fitness-related traits into additive genetic, non-additive genetic and maternal environmental effects using a full-factorial breeding design within two allopatric populations of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Maternal environmental effects were large at early life stages, but decreased during development, with non-additive genetic effects being most significant at later juvenile stages (alevin and fry). Non-additive genetic effects were also, on average, larger than additive genetic effects. The populations, generally, did not differ in the trait values or inferred genetic architecture of the traits. Any differences between the populations for trait values could be explained by maternal environmental effects. We discuss whether the similarities in architectures of these populations is the result of natural selection across a common juvenile environment.     

Evolutionary quantitative genetics of nonlinear developmental systems

In quantitative genetics, the effects of developmental relationships among traits on microevolution are generally represented by the contribution of pleiotropy to additive genetic covariances. Pleiotropic additive genetic covariances arise only from the average effects of alleles on multiple traits, and therefore the evolutionary importance of nonlinearities in development is generally neglected in quantitative genetic views on evolution. However, nonlinearities in relationships among traits at the level of whole organisms are undeniably important to biology in general, and therefore critical to understanding evolution. I outline a system for characterizing key quantitative parameters in nonlinear developmental systems, which yields expressions for quantities such as trait means and phenotypic and genetic covariance matrices. I then develop a system for quantitative prediction of evolution in nonlinear developmental systems. I apply the system to generating a new hypothesis for why direct stabilizing selection is rarely observed. Other uses will include separation of purely correlative from direct and indirect causal effects in studying mechanisms of selection, generation of predictions of medium‐term evolutionary trajectories rather than immediate predictions of evolutionary change over single generation time‐steps, and the development of efficient and biologically motivated models for separating additive from epistatic genetic variances and covariances.     

FORAGING TRAIT (CO)VARIANCES IN STICKLEBACK EVOLVE DETERMINISTICALLY AND DO NOT PREDICT TRAJECTORIES OF ADAPTIVE DIVERSIFICATION

How does natural selection shape the structure of variance and covariance among multiple traits, and how do (co)variances influence trajectories of adaptive diversification? We investigate these pivotal but open questions by comparing phenotypic (co)variances among multiple morphological traits across 18 derived lake‐dwelling populations of threespine stickleback, and their marine ancestor. Divergence in (co)variance structure among populations is striking and primarily attributable to shifts in the variance of a single key foraging trait (gill raker length). We then relate this divergence to an ecological selection proxy, to population divergence in trait means, and to the magnitude of sexual dimorphism within populations. This allows us to infer that evolution in (co)variances is linked to variation among habitats in the strength of resource‐mediated disruptive selection. We further find that adaptive diversification in trait means among populations has primarily involved shifts in gill raker length. The direction of evolutionary trajectories is unrelated to the major axes of ancestral trait (co)variance. Our study demonstrates that natural selection drives both means and (co)variances deterministically in stickleback, and strongly challenges the view that the (co)variance structure biases the direction of adaptive diversification predictably even over moderate time spans.     

ESTIMATING UNCERTAINTY IN MULTIVARIATE RESPONSES TO SELECTION

Predicting the responses to natural selection is one of the key goals of evolutionary biology. Two of the challenges in fulfilling this goal have been the realization that many estimates of natural selection might be highly biased by environmentally induced covariances between traits and fitness, and that many estimated responses to selection do not incorporate or report uncertainty in the estimates. Here we describe the application of a framework that blends the merits of the Robertson–Price Identity approach and the multivariate breeder's equation to address these challenges. The approach allows genetic covariance matrices, selection differentials, selection gradients, and responses to selection to be estimated without environmentally induced bias, direct and indirect selection and responses to selection to be distinguished, and if implemented in a Bayesian‐MCMC framework, statistically robust estimates of uncertainty on all of these parameters to be made. We illustrate our approach with a worked example of previously published data. More generally, we suggest that applying both the Robertson–Price Identity and the multivariate breeder's equation will facilitate hypothesis testing about natural selection, genetic constraints, and evolutionary responses.     

Idiosyncratic evolution of maternal effects in response to juvenile malnutrition in Drosophila

Maternal effects often affect fitness traits, but there is little experimental evidence pertaining to their contribution to response to selection imposed by novel environments. We studied the evolution of maternal effects in Drosophila populations selected for tolerance to chronic larval malnutrition. To this end, we performed pairwise reciprocal F₁ crosses between six selected (malnutrition tolerant) populations and six unselected control populations and assessed the effect of cross direction on larval growth and developmental rate, adult weight and egg‐to‐adult viability expressed under the malnutrition regime. Each pair of reciprocal crosses revealed large maternal effects (possibly including cytoplasmic genetic effects) on at least one trait, but the magnitude, sign and which traits were affected varied among populations. Thus, maternal effects contributed significantly to the response to selection imposed by the malnutrition regime, but these changes were idiosyncratic, suggesting a rugged adaptive landscape. Furthermore, although the selected populations evolved both faster growth and higher viability, the maternal effects on growth rate and viability were negatively correlated across populations. Thus, genes mediating maternal effects can evolve to partially counteract the response to selection mediated by the effects of alleles on their own carriers’ phenotype, and maternal effects may contribute to evolutionary trade‐offs between components of offspring fitness.     

REDUCED GENETIC VARIANCE AMONG HIGH FITNESS INDIVIDUALS: INFERRING STABILIZING SELECTION ON MALE SEXUAL DISPLAYS IN DROSOPHILA SERRATA

Directional selection is prevalent in nature, yet phenotypes tend to remain relatively constant, suggesting a limit to trait evolution. However, the genetic basis of this limit is unresolved. Given widespread pleiotropy, opposing selection on a trait may arise from the effects of the underlying alleles on other traits under selection, generating net stabilizing selection on trait genetic variance. These pleiotropic costs of trait exaggeration may arise through any number of other traits, making them hard to detect in phenotypic analyses. Stabilizing selection can be inferred, however, if genetic variance is greater among low‐ compared to high‐fitness individuals. We extend a recently suggested approach to provide a direct test of a difference in genetic variance for a suite of cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs) in Drosophila serrata. Despite strong directional sexual selection on these traits, genetic variance differed between high‐ and low‐fitness individuals and was greater among the low‐fitness males for seven of eight CHCs, significantly more than expected by chance. Univariate tests of a difference in genetic variance were nonsignificant but likely have low power. Our results suggest that further CHC exaggeration in D. serrata in response to sexual selection is limited by pleiotropic costs mediated through other traits.     

The relative importance of genetic and nongenetic inheritance in relation to trait plasticity in Callosobruchus maculatus

A trait's response to natural selection will reflect the nature of the inheritance mechanisms that mediate the transmission of variation across generations. The relative importance of genetic and nongenetic mechanisms of inheritance is predicted to be related to the degree of trait plasticity, with nongenetic inheritance playing a greater role in the cross‐generational transmission of more plastic traits. However, this prediction has never been tested. We investigated the influence of genetic effects and nongenetic parental effects in two morphological traits differing in degree of plasticity by manipulating larval diet quality within a cross‐generational split‐brood experiment using the seed beetle Callososbuchus maculatus. In line with predictions, we found that the more plastic trait (elytron length) is strongly influenced by both maternal and paternal effects whereas genetic variance is undetectable. In contrast, the less plastic trait (first abdominal sternite length) is not influenced by parental effects but exhibits abundant genetic variance. Our findings support the hypothesis that environment‐dependent parental effects may play a particularly important role in highly plastic traits and thereby affect the evolutionary response of such traits.     

LIMITS TO BEHAVIORAL EVOLUTION: THE QUANTITATIVE GENETICS OF A COMPLEX TRAIT UNDER DIRECTIONAL SELECTION

Replicated selection experiments provide a powerful way to study how “multiple adaptive solutions” may lead to differences in the quantitative–genetic architecture of selected traits and whether this may translate into differences in the timing at which evolutionary limits are reached. We analyze data from 31 generations (n = 17,988) of selection on voluntary wheel running in house mice. The rate of initial response, timing of selection limit, and height of the plateau varied significantly between sexes and among the four selected lines. Analyses of litter size and realized selection differentials seem to rule out counterposing natural selection as a cause of the selection limits. Animal‐model analyses showed that although the additive genetic variance was significantly lower in selected than control lines, both before and after the limits, the decrease was not sufficient to explain the limits. Moreover, directional selection promoted a negative covariance between additive and maternal genetic variance over the first 10 generations. These results stress the importance of replication in selection studies of higher‐level traits and highlight the fact that long‐term predictions of response to selection are not necessarily expected to be linear because of the variable effects of selection on additive genetic variance and maternal effects.     

THE EVOLUTION OF MATERNAL CHARACTERS

We develop quantitative-genetic models for the evolution of multiple traits under maternal inheritance, in which traits are transmitted through non-Mendelian as well as Mendelian mechanisms, and maternal selection, in which the fitness of offspring depends on their mother's phenotype as well as their own. Maternal inheritance results in time lags in the evolutionary response to selection. These cause a population to evolve for an indefinite number of generations after selection ceases and make the rate and direction of evolution change even when the strength of selection and parameters of inheritance remain constant. The rate and direction of evolution depend on the inheritance of traits that are not under selection, unlike under classical Mendelian inheritance. The models confirm earlier findings that the response to selection can be larger or smaller than what is possible with simple Mendelian inheritance, and even in a direction opposite to what selection favors. Maternal selection, in which a mother's phenotype influences her offspring's fitness, is frequency-dependent and can cause a population to evolve maladaptively away from a fitness peak, regardless of whether traits are transmitted by Mendelian or maternal inheritance. Maternal selection differs from other forms of selection in that its force depends not only on the fitness function but also on the phenotypic resemblance of parents and offspring.     

THE LANDE–KIRKPATRICK MECHANISM IS THE NULL MODEL OF EVOLUTION BY INTERSEXUAL SELECTION: IMPLICATIONS FOR MEANING,HONESTY, AND DESIGN IN INTERSEXUAL SIGNALS

The Fisher‐inspired, arbitrary intersexual selection models of Lande (1981) and Kirkpatrick (1982) , including both stable and unstable equilibrium conditions, provide the appropriate null model for the evolution of traits and preferences by intersexual selection. Like the Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium, the Lande–Kirkpatrick (LK) mechanism arises as an intrinsic consequence of genetic variation in trait and preference in the absence of other evolutionary forces. The LK mechanism is equivalent to other intersexual selection mechanisms in the absence of additional selection on preference and with additional trait‐viability and preference‐viability correlations equal to zero. The LK null model predicts the evolution of arbitrary display traits that are neither honest nor dishonest, indicate nothing other than mating availability, and lack any meaning or design other than their potential to correspond to mating preferences. The current standard for demonstrating an arbitrary trait is impossible to meet because it requires proof of the null hypothesis. The LK null model makes distinct predictions about the evolvability of traits and preferences. Examples of recent intersexual selection research document the confirmationist pitfalls of lacking a null model. Incorporation of the LK null into intersexual selection will contribute to serious examination of the extent to which natural selection on preferences shapes signals.     

Maternal environmental effects of competition influence evolutionary potential in rapeseed (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Brassica</Emphasis><Emphasis Type="Italic">rapa</Emphasis>)

Maternal environmental effects reflect the contribution of the maternal environment to the offspring phenotype. Maternal effects are prevalent in plants and animals and may undergo adaptive evolution and affect patterns of natural selection within and across generations. Here, we raise two generations of a rapeseed (Brassica rapa) population derived from a cross between a rapid-cycling and an oilseed genotype in competitive and noncompetitive settings. Maternal environment had little effect on average offspring phenotypes. Maternal genotypes, however, differed in the sensitivity of almost all offspring phenotypes to the maternal environment, demonstrating genetic variation in maternal effects for traits expressed throughout ontogeny. Maternal environment did not significantly affect progeny seed production, and maternal genotypes were not variable for this trait, indicating no evidence for direct maternal effects on offspring fitness. Maternal environment influenced natural selection in the progeny generation; disruptive selection acted on seed mass among seeds matured in the noncompetitive maternal environment versus no significant selection on this trait for seeds matured in the competitive maternal environment. Although maternal effects did not directly increase fitness, they did affect evolutionary potential and selection in the progeny generation. These results suggest that diverse phenotypes of both wild and cultivated B. rapa genotypes will depend on the maternal environment in which the seeds are matured.