Contrasting fire responses to climate and management: insights from two Australian ecosystems

This study explores effects of climate change and fuel management on unplanned fire activity in ecosystems representing contrasting extremes of the moisture availability spectrum (mesic and arid). Simulation modelling examined unplanned fire activity (fire incidence and area burned, and the area burned by large fires) for alternate climate scenarios and prescribed burning levels in: (i) a cool, moist temperate forest and wet moorland ecosystem in south‐west Tasmania (mesic); and (ii) a spinifex and mulga ecosystem in central Australia (arid). Contemporary fire activity in these case study systems is limited, respectively, by fuel availability and fuel amount. For future climates, unplanned fire incidence and area burned increased in the mesic landscape, but decreased in the arid landscape in accordance with predictions based on these limiting factors. Area burned by large fires (greater than the 95th percentile of historical, unplanned fire size) increased with future climates in the mesic landscape. Simulated prescribed burning was more effective in reducing unplanned fire activity in the mesic landscape. However, the inhibitory effects of prescribed burning are predicted to be outweighed by climate change in the mesic landscape, whereas in the arid landscape prescribed burning reinforced a predicted decline in fire under climate change. The potentially contrasting direction of future changes to fire will have fundamentally different consequences for biodiversity in these contrasting ecosystems, and these will need to be accommodated through contrasting, innovative management solutions.     

Environmental controls on the distribution and diversity of lentic Chironomidae (Insecta: Diptera) across an altitudinal gradient in tropical South America

To predict the response of aquatic ecosystems to future global climate change, data on the ecology and distribution of keystone groups in freshwater ecosystems are needed. In contrast to mid‐ and high‐latitude zones, such data are scarce across tropical South America (Neotropics). We present the distribution and diversity of chironomid species using surface sediments of 59 lakes from the Andes to the Amazon (0.1–17°S and 64–78°W) within the Neotropics. We assess the spatial variation in community assemblages and identify the key variables influencing the distributional patterns. The relationships between environmental variables (pH, conductivity, depth, and sediment organic content), climatic data, and chironomid assemblages were assessed using multivariate statistics (detrended correspondence analysis and canonical correspondence analysis). Climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) were most significant in describing the variance in chironomid assemblages. Temperature and precipitation are both predicted to change under future climate change scenarios in the tropical Andes. Our findings suggest taxa of Orthocladiinae, which show a preference to cold high‐elevation oligotrophic lakes, will likely see range contraction under future anthropogenic‐induced climate change. Taxa abundant in areas of high precipitation, such as Micropsectra and Phaenopsectra, will likely become restricted to the inner tropical Andes, as the outer tropical Andes become drier. The sensitivity of chironomids to climate parameters makes them important bio‐indicators of regional climate change in the Neotropics. Furthermore, the distribution of chironomid taxa presented here is a vital first step toward providing urgently needed autecological data for interpreting fossil chironomid records of past ecological and climate change from the tropical Andes.     

Exploring invasibility with species distribution modeling: How does fire promote cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) invasion within lower montane forests?

Aim

Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) is notorious for creating positive feedbacks that facilitate vegetation type conversion within sagebrush steppe ecosystems in the western United States. Similar dynamics may exist in adjacent lower montane forest. However, fire‐forest‐cheatgrass dynamics have not been examined. We used species distribution modeling to answer three questions about fire and invasibility in lower montane forests: (Q1) Does fire create more suitable habitat for cheatgrass? (Q2) If so, which site attributes are altered to increase site suitability? (Q3) Does fire increase connectivity among suitable habitat and enhance spread?

Location

Shoshone National Forest, Wyoming, USA.

Methods

We measured cheatgrass presence–absence in 93 plots within Interior Douglas‐fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca) forests. Random Forests predicted cheatgrass distribution with and without fire using nine site attributes: elevation, slope, aspect, solar radiation, annual precipitation, maximum temperature in July, minimum temperature in January, forest canopy cover and distance to nearest trail or road. Additionally, invasion pathways and spread were mapped using Circuitscape.

Results

Cheatgrass distribution was controlled by topographic and climate variables in the absence of fire. In particular, cheatgrass was most likely to occur at low elevation along dry, south‐ and east‐facing slopes. High‐severity fire increased potential cheatgrass distribution when forest canopy cover was reduced to below 30%. This process created new invasion pathways, which enhanced cheatgrass spread when modelled in Circuitscape.

Main conclusions

Our study showed that in the absence of fire, drier south‐ and east‐facing slopes at low elevation are most susceptible to cheatgrass invasion. However, high‐severity fire increased the total area susceptible to invasion—allowing cheatgrass to expand into previously unsuitable sites within lower montane forests in the western United States. These results are important for present day management and reflect that integrating responses to disturbance in species distribution models can be critical for making predictions about dynamically changing systems.

     

What predicts the richness of seeder and resprouter species in fire‐prone Cape fynbos: Rainfall reliability or vegetation density?

In ecosystems subject to regular canopy fires, woody species have evolved two general strategies of post‐fire regeneration. Seeder species are killed by fire and populations regenerate solely by post‐fire recruitment from a seed bank. Resprouter species survive fire and regenerate by vegetative regrowth from protected organs. Interestingly, the abundance of these strategies varies along environmental gradients and across regions. Two main hypotheses have been proposed to explain this spatial variation: the gap dependence and the environmental‐variability hypotheses. The gap‐dependence model predicts that seeders are favoured in sparse vegetation (vegetation gaps allowing effective post‐fire recruitment of seedlings), while resprouters are favoured in densely vegetated sites (seedlings being outcompeted by the rapid crown regrowth of resprouters). The environmental‐variability model predicts that seeders would prevail in reliable rainfall areas, whereas resprouters would be favoured in areas under highly variable rainfall that are prone to severe dry events (leading to high post‐fire seedling mortality). We tested these two models using distribution data, captured at the scale of quarter‐degree cells, for seeder and resprouter species of two speciose shrub genera (Aspalathus and Erica) common in fire‐prone fynbos ecosystems of the mediterranean‐climate part of the Cape Floristic Region. Contrary to the predictions of the gap‐dependence model, species number of both resprouters and seeders increased with values of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (a widely used surrogate for vegetation density), with a more marked increase for seeders. The predictions of the environmental‐variability hypothesis, by contrast, were not refuted by this study. Seeder and resprouter species of both genera showed highest richness in environments with high rainfall reliability. However, with decreasing reliability, seeder numbers dropped more quickly than those of resprouters. We conclude that the environmental‐variability model is better able to explain the abundance of woody seeder and resprouter species in Southern Hemisphere fire‐prone shrublands (fynbos and kwongan) than the gap‐dependence model.     

Solar radiation and functional traits explain the decline of forest primary productivity along a tropical elevation gradient

One of the major challenges in ecology is to understand how ecosystems respond to changes in environmental conditions, and how taxonomic and functional diversity mediate these changes. In this study, we use a trait‐spectra and individual‐based model, to analyse variation in forest primary productivity along a 3.3 km elevation gradient in the Amazon‐Andes. The model accurately predicted the magnitude and trends in forest productivity with elevation, with solar radiation and plant functional traits (leaf dry mass per area, leaf nitrogen and phosphorus concentration, and wood density) collectively accounting for productivity variation. Remarkably, explicit representation of temperature variation with elevation was not required to achieve accurate predictions of forest productivity, as trait variation driven by species turnover appears to capture the effect of temperature. Our semi‐mechanistic model suggests that spatial variation in traits can potentially be used to estimate spatial variation in productivity at the landscape scale.     

Assessing the response of forest productivity to climate extremes in Switzerland using model–data fusion

The response of forest productivity to climate extremes strongly depends on ambient environmental and site conditions. To better understand these relationships at a regional scale, we used nearly 800 observation years from 271 permanent long‐term forest monitoring plots across Switzerland, obtained between 1980 and 2017. We assimilated these data into the 3‐PG forest ecosystem model using Bayesian inference, reducing the bias of model predictions from 14% to 5% for forest stem carbon stocks and from 45% to 9% for stem carbon stock changes. We then estimated the productivity of forests dominated by Picea abies and Fagus sylvatica for the period of 1960–2018, and tested for productivity shifts in response to climate along elevational gradient and in extreme years. Simulated net primary productivity (NPP) decreased with elevation (2.86 ± 0.006 Mg C ha^?1 year^?1 km^?1 for P. abies and 0.93 ± 0.010 Mg C ha^?1 year^?1 km^?1 for F. sylvatica). During warm–dry extremes, simulated NPP for both species increased at higher and decreased at lower elevations, with reductions in NPP of more than 25% for up to 21% of the potential species distribution range in Switzerland. Reduced plant water availability had a stronger effect on NPP than temperature during warm‐dry extremes. Importantly, cold–dry extremes had negative impacts on regional forest NPP comparable to warm–dry extremes. Overall, our calibrated model suggests that the response of forest productivity to climate extremes is more complex than simple shift toward higher elevation. Such robust estimates of NPP are key for increasing our understanding of forests ecosystems carbon dynamics under climate extremes.     

Regional atmospheric CO2 inversion reveals seasonal and geographic differences in Amazon net biome exchange

Understanding tropical rainforest carbon exchange and its response to heat and drought is critical for quantifying the effects of climate change on tropical ecosystems, including global climate–carbon feedbacks. Of particular importance for the global carbon budget is net biome exchange of CO₂ with the atmosphere (NBE), which represents nonfire carbon fluxes into and out of biomass and soils. Subannual and sub‐Basin Amazon NBE estimates have relied heavily on process‐based biosphere models, despite lack of model agreement with plot‐scale observations. We present a new analysis of airborne measurements that reveals monthly, regional‐scale (~1–8 × 10⁶ km²) NBE variations. We develop a regional atmospheric CO₂ inversion that provides the first analysis of geographic and temporal variability in Amazon biosphere–atmosphere carbon exchange and that is minimally influenced by biosphere model‐based first guesses of seasonal and annual mean fluxes. We find little evidence for a clear seasonal cycle in Amazon NBE but do find NBE sensitivity to aberrations from long‐term mean climate. In particular, we observe increased NBE (more carbon emitted to the atmosphere) associated with heat and drought in 2010, and correlations between wet season NBE and precipitation (negative correlation) and temperature (positive correlation). In the eastern Amazon, pulses of increased NBE persisted through 2011, suggesting legacy effects of 2010 heat and drought. We also identify regional differences in postdrought NBE that appear related to long‐term water availability. We examine satellite proxies and find evidence for higher gross primary productivity (GPP) during a pulse of increased carbon uptake in 2011, and lower GPP during a period of increased NBE in the 2010 dry season drought, but links between GPP and NBE changes are not conclusive. These results provide novel evidence of NBE sensitivity to short‐term temperature and moisture extremes in the Amazon, where monthly and sub‐Basin estimates have not been previously available.     

Seed origin and warming constrain lodgepole pine recruitment,slowing the pace of population range shifts

Understanding how climate warming will affect the demographic rates of different ecotypes is critical to predicting shifts in species distributions. Here, we present results from a common garden, climate change experiment in which we measured seedling recruitment of lodgepole pine, a widespread North American conifer that is also planted globally. Seeds from a low‐elevation provenance had more than three‐fold greater recruitment to their third year than seeds from a high‐elevation provenance across sites within and above its native elevation range and across climate manipulations. Heating halved recruitment to the third year of both low‐ and high‐elevation seed sources across the elevation gradient, while watering more than doubled recruitment, alleviating some of the negative effects of heating. Demographic models based on recruitment data from the climate manipulations and long‐term observations of adult populations revealed that heating could effectively halt modeled upslope range expansion except when combined with watering. Simulating fire and rapid postfire forest recovery at lower elevations accelerated lodgepole pine expansion into the alpine, but did not alter final abundance rankings among climate scenarios. Regardless of climate scenario, greater recruitment of low‐elevation seeds compensated for longer dispersal distances to treeline, assuming colonization was allowed to proceed over multiple centuries. Our results show that ecotypes from lower elevations within a species’ range could enhance recruitment and facilitate upslope range shifts with climate change.     

Greater phenological sensitivity to temperature on higher Scottish mountains: new insights from remote sensing

Mountain plants are considered among the species most vulnerable to climate change, especially at high latitudes where there is little potential for poleward or uphill dispersal. Satellite monitoring can reveal spatiotemporal variation in vegetation activity, offering a largely unexploited potential for studying responses of montane ecosystems to temperature and predicting phenological shifts driven by climate change. Here, a novel remote‐sensing phenology approach is developed that advances existing techniques by considering variation in vegetation activity across the whole year, rather than just focusing on event dates (e.g. start and end of season). Time series of two vegetation indices (VI), normalized difference VI (NDVI) and enhanced VI (EVI) were obtained from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer MODIS satellite for 2786 Scottish mountain summits (600–1344 m elevation) in the years 2000–2011. NDVI and EVI time series were temporally interpolated to derive values on the first day of each month, for comparison with gridded monthly temperatures from the preceding period. These were regressed against temperature in the previous months, elevation and their interaction, showing significant variation in temperature sensitivity between months. Warm years were associated with high NDVI and EVI in spring and summer, whereas there was little effect of temperature in autumn and a negative effect in winter. Elevation was shown to mediate phenological change via a magnification of temperature responses on the highest mountains. Together, these predict that climate change will drive substantial changes in mountain summit phenology, especially by advancing spring growth at high elevations. The phenological plasticity underlying these temperature responses may allow long‐lived alpine plants to acclimate to warmer temperatures. Conversely, longer growing seasons may facilitate colonization and competitive exclusion by species currently restricted to lower elevations. In either case, these results show previously unreported seasonal and elevational variation in the temperature sensitivity of mountain vegetation activity.     

Adaptation of soil microbial growth to temperature: Using a tropical elevation gradient to predict future changes

Terrestrial biogeochemical feedbacks to the climate are strongly modulated by the temperature response of soil microorganisms. Tropical forests, in particular, exert a major influence on global climate because they are the most productive terrestrial ecosystem. We used an elevation gradient across tropical forest in the Andes (a gradient of 20°C mean annual temperature, MAT), to test whether soil bacterial and fungal community growth responses are adapted to long‐term temperature differences. We evaluated the temperature dependency of soil bacterial and fungal growth using the leucine‐ and acetate‐incorporation methods, respectively, and determined indices for the temperature response of growth: Q₁₀ (temperature sensitivity over a given 10oC range) and T_min (the minimum temperature for growth). For both bacterial and fungal communities, increased MAT (decreased elevation) resulted in increases in Q₁₀ and T_min of growth. Across a MAT range from 6°C to 26°C, the Q₁₀ and T_min varied for bacterial growth (Q_10–20 = 2.4 to 3.5; T_min = ?8°C to ?1.5°C) and fungal growth (Q_10–20 = 2.6 to 3.6; T_min = ?6°C to ?1°C). Thus, bacteria and fungi did not differ significantly in their growth temperature responses with changes in MAT. Our findings indicate that across natural temperature gradients, each increase in MAT by 1°C results in increases in T_min of microbial growth by approximately 0.3°C and Q_10–20 by 0.05, consistent with long‐term temperature adaptation of soil microbial communities. A 2°C warming would increase microbial activity across a MAT gradient of 6°C to 26°C by 28% to 15%, respectively, and temperature adaptation of microbial communities would further increase activity by 1.2% to 0.3%. The impact of warming on microbial activity, and the related impact on soil carbon cycling, is thus greater in regions with lower MAT. These results can be used to predict future changes in the temperature response of microbial activity over different levels of warming and over large temperature ranges, extending to tropical regions.     

Evidence for climate‐driven synchrony of marine and terrestrial ecosystems in northwest Australia

The effects of climate change are difficult to predict for many marine species because little is known of their response to climate variations in the past. However, long‐term chronologies of growth, a variable that integrates multiple physical and biological factors, are now available for several marine taxa. These allow us to search for climate‐driven synchrony in growth across multiple taxa and ecosystems, identifying the key processes driving biological responses at very large spatial scales. We hypothesized that in northwest (NW) Australia, a region that is predicted to be strongly influenced by climate change, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon would be an important factor influencing the growth patterns of organisms in both marine and terrestrial environments. To test this idea, we analyzed existing growth chronologies of the marine fish Lutjanus argentimaculatus, the coral Porites spp. and the tree Callitris columellaris and developed a new chronology for another marine fish, Lethrinus nebulosus. Principal components analysis and linear model selection showed evidence of ENSO‐driven synchrony in growth among all four taxa at interannual time scales, the first such result for the Southern Hemisphere. Rainfall, sea surface temperatures, and sea surface salinities, which are linked to the ENSO system, influenced the annual growth of fishes, trees, and corals. All four taxa had negative relationships with the Niño‐4 index (a measure of ENSO status), with positive growth patterns occurring during strong La Niña years. This finding implies that future changes in the strength and frequency of ENSO events are likely to have major consequences for both marine and terrestrial taxa. Strong similarities in the growth patterns of fish and trees offer the possibility of using tree‐ring chronologies, which span longer time periods than those of fish, to aid understanding of both historical and future responses of fish populations to climate variation.     

Divergent phenological response to hydroclimate variability in forested mountain watersheds

Mountain watersheds are primary sources of freshwater, carbon sequestration, and other ecosystem services. There is significant interest in the effects of climate change and variability on these processes over short to long time scales. Much of the impact of hydroclimate variability in forest ecosystems is manifested in vegetation dynamics in space and time. In steep terrain, leaf phenology responds to topoclimate in complex ways, and can produce specific and measurable shifts in landscape forest patterns. The onset of spring is usually delayed at a specific rate with increasing elevation (often called Hopkins' Law; Hopkins, 1918), reflecting the dominant controls of temperature on greenup timing. Contrary with greenup, leaf senescence shows inconsistent trends along elevation gradients. Here, we present mechanisms and an explanation for this variability and its significance for ecosystem patterns and services in response to climate. We use moderate‐resolution imaging spectro‐radiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data to derive landscape‐induced phenological patterns over topoclimate gradients in a humid temperate broadleaf forest in southern Appalachians. These phenological patterns are validated with different sets of field observations. Our data demonstrate that divergent behavior of leaf senescence with elevation is closely related to late growing season hydroclimate variability in temperature and water balance patterns. Specifically, a drier late growing season is associated with earlier leaf senescence at low elevation than at middle elevation. The effect of drought stress on vegetation senescence timing also leads to tighter coupling between growing season length and ecosystem water use estimated from observed precipitation and runoff generation. This study indicates increased late growing season drought may be leading to divergent ecosystem response between high and low elevation forests. Landscape‐induced phenological patterns are easily observed over wide areas and may be used as a unique diagnostic for sources of ecosystem vulnerability and sensitivity to hydroclimate change.     

Potential impacts of a future persistent El Niño or La Niña on three subspecies of Australian butterflies

One of the major uncertainties of 21st century climate change is the potential for shifts to the intensity and frequency of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Although this phenomenon is known to have dramatic impacts on ecosystems regionally and globally, the biological consequences of climate change‐driven shifts in future ENSO events have been unexplored. Here, we investigate the potential impacts that a persistent El Niño, La Niña, or ‘Neutral' phase may have on species distributions. Using MaxEnt, we model the distribution of climatically suitable habitat for three northeast Australian butterfly subspecies (Doleschallia bisaltide australis, Hypolimnas alimena lamina, and Mycalesis terminus terminus) across the three ENSO phases. We find that the spatial extent and quality of habitat are lowest under conditions that would characterize a persistent El Niño (hot/dry). In contrast, suitable habitat is broadest under the warm/wet conditions associated with La Niña. Statistical analyses of the difference between pair‐wise combinations of suitability maps using Hellinger distance showed that projections for each subspecies and ENSO phase combination were significantly different from other combinations. The resilience of these, and other, butterfly (sub)species to changes in ENSO will be influenced by fluctuations in the strength of these events, availability of refugia, and life‐history characteristics. However, the population dynamics of wet‐ and dry‐season phenotypes of M. t. terminus and physiological limitations to high temperatures suggest that this subspecies, in particular, may have limited resilience should the strength and frequency of El Niño events increase.     

Projected carbon stocks in the conterminous USA with land use and variable fire regimes

The dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) MC2 was run over the conterminous USA at 30 arc sec (~800 m) to simulate the impacts of nine climate futures generated by 3GCMs (CSIRO, MIROC and CGCM3) using 3 emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) in the context of the LandCarbon national carbon sequestration assessment. It first simulated potential vegetation dynamics from coast to coast assuming no human impacts and naturally occurring wildfires. A moderate effect of increased atmospheric CO₂ on water use efficiency and growth enhanced carbon sequestration but did not greatly influence woody encroachment. The wildfires maintained prairie‐forest ecotones in the Great Plains. With simulated fire suppression, the number and impacts of wildfires was reduced as only catastrophic fires were allowed to escape. This greatly increased the expansion of forests and woodlands across the western USA and some of the ecotones disappeared. However, when fires did occur, their impacts (both extent and biomass consumed) were very large. We also evaluated the relative influence of human land use including forest and crop harvest by running the DGVM with land use (and fire suppression) and simple land management rules. From 2041 through 2060, carbon stocks (live biomass, soil and dead biomass) of US terrestrial ecosystems varied between 155 and 162 Pg C across the three emission scenarios when potential natural vegetation was simulated. With land use, periodic harvest of croplands and timberlands as well as the prevention of woody expansion across the West reduced carbon stocks to a range of 122–126 Pg C, while effective fire suppression reduced fire emissions by about 50%. Despite the simplicity of our approach, the differences between the size of the carbon stocks confirm other reports of the importance of land use on the carbon cycle over climate change.     

Low‐severity fire as a mechanism of organic matter protection in global peatlands: Thermal alteration slows decomposition

Worldwide, regularly recurring wildfires shape many peatland ecosystems to the extent that fire‐adapted species often dominate plant communities, suggesting that wildfire is an integral part of peatland ecology rather than an anomaly. The most destructive blazes are smoldering fires that are usually initiated in periods of drought and can combust entire peatland carbon stores. However, peatland wildfires more typically occur as low‐severity surface burns that arise in the dormant season when vegetation is desiccated, and soil moisture is high. In such low‐severity fires, surface layers experience flash heating, but there is little loss of underlying peat to combustion. This study examines the potential importance of such processes in several peatlands that span a gradient from hemiboreal to tropical ecozones and experience a wide range of fire return intervals. We show that low‐severity fires can increase the pool of stable soil carbon by thermally altering the chemistry of soil organic matter (SOM), thereby reducing rates of microbial respiration. Using X‐ray photoelectron spectroscopy and Fourier transform infrared, we demonstrate that low‐severity fires significantly increase the degree of carbon condensation and aromatization of SOM functional groups, particularly on the surface of peat aggregates. Laboratory incubations show lower CO₂ emissions from peat subjected to low‐severity fire and predict lower cumulative CO₂ emissions from burned peat after 1–3 years. Also, low‐severity fires reduce the temperature sensitivity (Q₁₀) of peat, indicating that these fires can inhibit microbial access to SOM. The increased stability of thermally altered SOM may allow a greater proportion of organic matter to survive vertical migration into saturated and anaerobic zones of peatlands where environmental conditions physiochemically protect carbon stores from decomposition for thousands of years. Thus, across latitudes, low‐severity fire is an overlooked factor influencing carbon cycling in peatlands, which is relevant to global carbon budgets as climate change alters fire regimes worldwide.     

ENSO and NAO affect long‐term leaf litter dynamics and stoichiometry of Scots pine and European beech mixedwoods

Litterfall dynamics (production, seasonality and nutrient composition) are key factors influencing nutrient cycling. Leaf litter characteristics are modified by species composition, site conditions and water availability. However, significant evidence on how large‐scale, global circulation patterns affect ecophysiological processes at tree and ecosystem level remains scarce due to the difficulty in separating the combined influence of different factors on local climate and tree phenology. To fill this gap, we studied links between leaf litter dynamics with climate and other forest processes, such as tree‐ring width (TRW) and intrinsic water‐use efficiency (iWUE) in two mixtures of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in the south‐western Pyrenees. Temporal series (18 years) of litterfall production and elemental chemical composition were decomposed following the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method and relationships with local climate, large‐scale climatic indices, TRW and Scots pine's iWUE were assessed. Temporal trends in N:P ratios indicated increasing P limitation of soil microbes, thus affecting nutrient availability, as the ecological succession from a pine‐dominated to a beech‐dominated forest took place. A significant influence of large‐scale patterns on tree‐level ecophysiology was explained through the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on water availability. Positive NAO and negative ENSO were related to dry conditions and, consequently, to early needle shedding and increased N:P ratio of both species. Autumn storm activity appears to be related to premature leaf abscission of European beech. Significant cascading effects from large‐scale patterns on local weather influenced pine TRW and iWUE. These variables also responded to leaf stoichiometry fallen 3 years prior to tree‐ring formation. Our results provide evidence of the cascading effect that variability in global climate circulation patterns can have on ecophysiological processes and stand dynamics in mixed forests.     

Time‐since‐fire and climate interact to affect the structural recovery of an Australian semi‐arid plant community

How does time‐since‐fire influence the structural recovery of semi‐arid, eucalypt‐dominated Murray‐Mallee shrublands after fire, and is recovery affected by spatial variation in climate? We assessed the structure and dynamics of a hummock grass, Triodia scariosa N.T. Burb, and mallee eucalypts – two key structural components of mallee shrublands – using a >100 year time‐since‐fire chronosequence. The relative influence of climatic variables, both individually and combined with time‐since‐fire, was modelled to account for spatial variation in the recovery of vegetation structural components. Time‐since‐fire was the primary determinant of the structural recovery of T. scariosa and eucalypts. However, climate, notably mean annual rainfall and rainfall variability, also influenced the recovery of the eucalypt overstorey, T. scariosa cover and mean hummock height. We observed that (i) the mean number of live eucalypt stems per individual decreased while mean individual basal area increased, (ii) cover of T. scariosa peaked at ~30 years post‐fire and gradually decreased thereafter, and (iii) the ‘hummock’ form of T. scariosa occurred throughout the chronosequence, whereas the ‘ring’ form tended not to occur until ~30 years post‐fire. Time‐since‐fire was the key determinant of the structural recovery of eucalypt‐dominated mallee shrublands, but there is geographical variation in recovery related to rainfall and its variability. Fire regimes are likely to have different effects across the geographic range of mallee shrublands.     

Contrasting effects of tropical cyclones on the annual survival of a pelagic seabird in the Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclones are renowned for their destructive nature and are an important feature of marine and coastal tropical ecosystems. Over the last 40 years, their intensity, frequency and tracks have changed, partly in response to ocean warming, and future predictions indicate that these trends are likely to continue with potential consequences for human populations and coastal ecosystems. However, our understanding of how tropical cyclones currently affect marine biodiversity, and pelagic species in particular, is limited. For seabirds, the impacts of cyclones are known to be detrimental at breeding colonies, but impacts on the annual survival of pelagic adults and juveniles remain largely unexplored and no study has simultaneously explored the direct impacts of cyclones on different life‐history stages across the annual life cycle. We used a 20‐year data set on tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean, tracking data from 122 Round Island petrels and long‐term capture–mark–recapture data to explore the impacts of tropical cyclones on the survival of adult and juvenile (first year) petrels during both the breeding and migration periods. The tracking data showed that juvenile and adult Round Island petrels utilize the three cyclone regions of the Indian Ocean and were potentially exposed to cyclones for a substantial part of their annual cycle. However, only juvenile petrel survival was affected by cyclone activity; negatively by a strong cyclone in the vicinity of the breeding colony and positively by increasing cyclone activity in the Northern Indian Ocean where they spend the majority of their first year at sea. These contrasting effects raise the intriguing prospect that the projected changes in cyclones under current climate change scenarios may have positive as well as the more commonly perceived negative impacts on marine biodiversity.     

Long‐term variability and rainfall control of savanna fire regimes in equatorial East Africa

Fires burning the vast grasslands and savannas of Africa significantly influence the global carbon cycle. Projecting the impacts of future climate change on fire‐mediated biogeochemical processes in these dry tropical ecosystems requires understanding of how various climate factors influence regional fire regimes. To examine climate–vegetation–fire linkages in dry savanna, we conducted macroscopic and microscopic charcoal analysis on the sediments of the past 25 000 years from Lake Challa, a deep crater lake in equatorial East Africa. The charcoal‐inferred shifts in local and regional fire regimes were compared with previously published reconstructions of temperature, rainfall, seasonal drought severity, and vegetation dynamics to evaluate millennial‐scale drivers of fire occurrence. Our charcoal data indicate that fire in the dry lowland savanna of southeastern Kenya was not fuel‐limited during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Late Glacial, in contrast to many other regions throughout the world. Fire activity remained high at Lake Challa probably because the relatively high mean‐annual temperature (~22 °C) allowed productive C₄ grasses with high water‐use efficiency to dominate the landscape. From the LGM through the middle Holocene, the relative importance of savanna burning in the region varied primarily in response to changes in rainfall and dry‐season length, which were controlled by orbital insolation forcing of tropical monsoon dynamics. The fuel limitation that characterizes the region's fire regime today appears to have begun around 5000–6000 years ago, when warmer interglacial conditions coincided with prolonged seasonal drought. Thus, insolation‐driven variation in the amount and seasonality of rainfall during the past 25 000 years altered the immediate controls on fire occurrence in the grass‐dominated savannas of eastern equatorial Africa. These results show that climatic impacts on dry‐savanna burning are heterogeneous through time, with important implications for efforts to anticipate future shifts in fire‐mediated ecosystem processes.     

Does Fire Trigger Seed Germination in the Neotropical Savannas? Experimental Tests with Six Cerrado Species

The Cerrado (Brazilian savanna) is a biodiversity hotspot with a history of fire that goes back as far as 10 million years. Fire has influenced the evolution of several aspects of the vegetation, including reproduction and life cycles. This study tested how fire by‐products such as heat and smoke affect the germination of six species common to two Cerrado open physiognomies: wet grasslands and the campo sujo (grassland with scattered shrubs and dwarf trees). We subjected seeds collected in northern Brazil to heat shock and smoke treatments, both separately and combined, using different temperatures, exposure times, and smoke concentrations in aqueous solutions. High temperatures and smoke did not break seed dormancy nor stimulate germination of the Cerrado study species. However, seeds were not killed by high temperatures, indicating that they are fire‐tolerant. Our findings differed from those of other fire‐prone ecosystems (mostly of Mediterranean vegetation), where fire stimulates germination. Moreover, we provide important information regarding germination strategies of non‐woody Cerrado plants, showing the importance of considering the tolerance of seeds to high temperatures when evaluating fire‐related traits in fire‐prone ecosystems.