A century of fish growth in relation to climate change,population dynamics and exploitation

Marine ecosystems, particularly in high‐latitude regions such as the Arctic, have been significantly affected by human activities and contributions to climate change. Evaluating how fish populations responded to past changes in their environment is helpful for evaluating their future patterns, but is often hindered by the lack of long‐term biological data available. Using otolith increments of Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) as a proxy for individual growth, we developed a century‐scale biochronology (1924–2014) based on the measurements of 3,894 fish, which revealed significant variations in cod growth over the last 91 years. We combined mixed‐effect modeling and path analysis to relate these growth variations to selected climate, population and fishing‐related factors. Cod growth was negatively related to cod population size and positively related to capelin population size, one of the most important prey items. This suggests that density‐dependent effects are the main source of growth variability due to competition for resources and cannibalism. Growth was also positively correlated with warming sea temperatures but negatively correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, suggesting contrasting effects of climate warming at different spatial scales. Fishing pressure had a significant but weak negative direct impact on growth. Additionally, path analysis revealed that the selected growth factors were interrelated. Capelin biomass was positively related to sea temperature and negatively influenced by herring biomass, while cod biomass was mainly driven by fishing mortality. Together, these results give a better understanding of how multiple interacting factors have shaped cod growth throughout a century, both directly and indirectly.     

Larval fish body growth responses to simultaneous browning and warming

Organisms are facing global climate change and other anthropogenic pressures, but most research on responses to such changes only considers effects of single drivers. Observational studies and physiological experiments suggest temperature increases will lead to faster growth of small fish. Whether this effect of warming holds in more natural food web settings with concurrent changes in other drivers, such as darkening water color (“browning”) is, however, unknown. Here, we set up a pelagic mesocosm experiment with large bags in the Baltic Sea archipelago, inoculated with larval Eurasian perch (Perca fluviatilis) and zooplankton prey and varying in temperature and color, to answer the question how simultaneous warming and browning of coastal food webs impact body growth and survival of larval perch. We found that browning decreased body growth and survival of larval perch, whereas warming increased body growth but had no effect on survival. Based on daily fish body growth estimates based on otolith microstructure analysis, and size composition and abundance of available prey, we explain how these results may come about through a combination of physiological responses to warming and lower foraging efficiency in brown waters. We conclude that larval fish responses to climate change thus may depend on the relative rate and extent of both warming and browning, as they may even cancel each other out.     

Relationships between climate and growth of Gymnocypris selincuoensis in the Tibetan Plateau

The consequences of climate change are becoming increasingly evident in the Tibetan Plateau, represented by glaciers retreating and lakes expanding, but the biological response to climate change by plateau–lake ecosystems is poorly known. In this study, we applied dendrochronology methods to develop a growth index chronology with otolith increment widths of Selincuo naked carp (Gymnocypris selincuoensis), which is an endemic species in Lake Selincuo (4530 m), and investigated the relationships between fish growth and climate variables (regional and global) in the last three decades. A correlation analysis and principle component regression analysis between regional climate factors and the growth index chronology indicated that the growth of G. selincuoensis was significantly and positively correlated with length of the growing season and temperature‐related variables, particularly during the growing season. Most of global climate variables, which are relevant to the Asian monsoon and the midlatitude westerlies, such as El Nino Southern Oscillation Index, the Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and North America Pattern, showed negative but not significant correlations with the annual growth of Selincuo naked carp. This may have resulted from the high elevation of the Tibetan Plateau and the high mountains surrounding this area. In comparison, the Pacific Decade Oscillation (PDO) negatively affected the growth of G. selincuoensis. The reason maybe that enhancement of the PDO can lead to cold conditions in this area. Taken together, the results indicate that the Tibetan Plateau fish has been affected by global climate change, particularly during the growing season, and global climate change likely has important effects on productivity of aquatic ecosystems in this area.     

Otolith biochronology as an indicator of marine fish responses to hydroclimatic conditions and ecosystem regime shifts

Sclerochronological studies based on hard structures of marine organisms are valuable tools—both for reconstructing past climate conditions and for predicting future impacts of environmental changes on marine resources. Existing archives, which house millions of fish otoliths (ear stones) constitute an excellent basis for such research; but, they remain underutilized. The objective of this project was to identify the factors that influence the annual growth patterns of the European flounder (Platichthys flesus) based on an analysis of otolith increments. We applied linear mixed models to develop a 74-year long chronology that reflects the inter-annual variations in flounder growth rates using otolith samples collected from 1957 to 2016 in the southern part of the Baltic Sea, which is considered to be highly vulnerable to global climate change. By analyzing the widths of otolith increments we revealed the existence of common environmental factors that influence fish growth. Using a mixed modeling framework, we incorporated a recent method to identify the optimal time window for climatic factors and showed that the most significant effect of the mean Baltic Sea Index occurs during August–December, while mean sea surface temperature is most significant from April–June. Change point analysis on the developed chronology identified major alterations occurred in flounder growth in 1988, 1992 and 2006. This result is in accord with published studies on regime shifts in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. This paper reports information concerning the response of the commercially important European flounder to the changing environment that may support future ecosystem-based management of fish stocks. Moreover, the results also highlight the potential for applying biochronological techniques to identify rapid regime shifts in marine ecosystems.     

Intraspecific variation in the growth and survival of juvenile fish exposed to Eucalyptus leachate

Whilst changes in freshwater assemblages along gradients of environmental stress have been relatively well studied, we know far less about intraspecific variation to these same stressors. A stressor common in fresh waters worldwide is leachates from terrestrial plants. Leachates alter the physiochemical environment of fresh waters by lowering pH and dissolved oxygen and also releasing toxic compounds such as polyphenols and tannins, all of which can be detrimental to aquatic organisms. We investigated how chronic exposure to Eucalyptus leaf leachate affected the growth and survival of juvenile southern pygmy perch (Nannoperca australis) collected from three populations with different litter inputs, hydrology and observed leachate concentrations. Chronic exposure to elevated leachate levels negatively impacted growth and survival, but the magnitude of these lethal and sublethal responses was conditional on body size and source population. Bigger fish had increased survival at high leachate levels but overall slower growth rates. Body size also varied among populations and fish from the population exposed to the lowest natural leachate concentrations had the highest average stress tolerance. Significant intraspecific variation in both growth and survival caused by Eucalyptus leachate exposure indicates that the magnitude (but not direction) of these stress responses varies across the landscape. This raises the potential for leachate‐induced selection to operate at an among‐population scale. The importance of body size demonstrates that the timing of leachate exposure during ontogeny is central in determining the magnitude of biological response, with early life stages being most vulnerable. Overall, we demonstrate that Eucalyptus leachates are prevalent and potent selective agents that can trigger important sublethal impacts, beyond those associated with more familiar fish kills, and reiterate that dissolved organic carbon is more than just an energy source in aquatic environments.     

Experimental evidence of gradual size‐dependent shifts in body size and growth of fish in response to warming

A challenge facing ecologists trying to predict responses to climate change is the few recent analogous conditions to use for comparison. For example, negative relationships between ectotherm body size and temperature are common both across natural thermal gradients and in small‐scale experiments. However, it is unknown if short‐term body size responses are representative of long‐term responses. Moreover, to understand population responses to warming, we must recognize that individual responses to temperature may vary over ontogeny. To enable predictions of how climate warming may affect natural populations, we therefore ask how body size and growth may shift in response to increased temperature over life history, and whether short‐ and long‐term growth responses differ. We addressed these questions using a unique setup with multidecadal artificial heating of an enclosed coastal bay in the Baltic Sea and an adjacent reference area (both with unexploited populations), using before‐after control‐impact paired time‐series analyses. We assembled individual growth trajectories of ~13,000 unique individuals of Eurasian perch and found that body growth increased substantially after warming, but the extent depended on body size: Only among small‐bodied perch did growth increase with temperature. Moreover, the strength of this response gradually increased over the 24 year warming period. Our study offers a unique example of how warming can affect fish populations over multiple generations, resulting in gradual changes in body growth, varying as organisms develop. Although increased juvenile growth rates are in line with predictions of the temperature–size rule, the fact that a larger body size at age was maintained over life history contrasts to that same rule. Because the artificially heated area is a contemporary system mimicking a warmer sea, our findings can aid predictions of fish responses to further warming, taking into account that growth responses may vary both over an individual's life history and over time.     

Partial migration: growth varies between resident and migratory fish

Partial migration occurs in many taxa and ecosystems and may confer survival benefits. Here, we use otolith chemistry data to determine whether fish from a large estuarine system were resident or migratory, and then examine whether contingents display differences in modelled growth based on changes in width of otolith growth increments. Sixty-three per cent of fish were resident based on Ba : Ca of otoliths, with the remainder categorized as migratory, with both contingents distributed across most age/size classes and both sexes, suggesting population-level bet hedging. Migrant fish were in slightly better condition than resident fish based on Fulton''s K condition index. Migration type (resident versus migratory) was 56 times more likely to explain variation in growth than a model just incorporating year- and age-related growth trends. While average growth only varied slightly between resident and migratory fish, year-to-year variation was significant. Such dynamism in growth rates likely drives persistence of both life-history types. The complex relationships in growth between contingents suggest that management of species exhibiting partial migration is challenging, especially in a world subject to a changing climate.     

Size‐dependent thermal preferences in a pelagic fish

Large fish often inhabit colder waters than small fish. Using a simple bioenergetic model, we found that the optimal temperature for growth should decrease with increasing body size. We predicted that this mechanism would produce an ontogenetic change in thermal preference and then tested our predictions with Pacific salmon, Oncorhynchus spp. In a laboratory experiment, the slope of a regression of growth increment on initial size became steeper with increasing temperature, so that the optimal temperature for growth decreased with increasing body size. In field observations, larger and older salmon inhabited cooler areas, whereas smaller and younger salmon inhabited warmer areas. These patterns were consistent with a size‐dependent effect of temperature on condition factor, a parameter shown experimentally to be a measure of the most recent growth performance. Temperatures for maximising condition factor were lower for larger fish. Thus, an ontogenetic change in individual thermal preference toward cooler areas maximises the growth performance of fish, and the negative effects of climate warming on growth are hypothesised to be more severe for larger fish.     

Global warming may disproportionately affect larger adults in a predatory coral reef fish

Global warming is expected to reduce body sizes of ectothermic animals. Although the underlying mechanisms of size reductions remain poorly understood, effects appear stronger at latitudinal extremes (poles and tropics) and in aquatic rather than terrestrial systems. To shed light on this phenomenon, we examined the size dependence of critical thermal maxima (CTmax) and aerobic metabolism in a commercially important tropical reef fish, the leopard coral grouper (Plectropomus leopardus) following acclimation to current‐day (28.5 °C) vs. projected end‐of‐century (33 °C) summer temperatures for the northern Great Barrier Reef (GBR). CTmax declined from 38.3 to 37.5 °C with increasing body mass in adult fish (0.45–2.82 kg), indicating that larger individuals are more thermally sensitive than smaller conspecifics. This may be explained by a restricted capacity for large fish to increase mass‐specific maximum metabolic rate (MMR) at 33 °C compared with 28.5 °C. Indeed, temperature influenced the relationship between metabolism and body mass (0.02–2.38 kg), whereby the scaling exponent for MMR increased from 0.74 ± 0.02 at 28.5 °C to 0.79 ± 0.01 at 33 °C, and the corresponding exponents for standard metabolic rate (SMR) were 0.75 ± 0.04 and 0.80 ± 0.03. The increase in metabolic scaling exponents at higher temperatures suggests that energy budgets may be disproportionately impacted in larger fish and contribute to reduced maximum adult size. Such climate‐induced reductions in body size would have important ramifications for fisheries productivity, but are also likely to have knock‐on effects for trophodynamics and functioning of ecosystems.     

Restricted fish feeding reduces cod otolith opacity

The purpose of this work was to examine the effect of reduced feeding and constant temperature on cod otolith opacity. Three groups of juvenile cod were given restricted food rations at different times for 4 months, resulting in depressed somatic growth. Otolith opacity was measured on pictures of the otolith sections. The otolith carbonate deposited during the experimental period was generally opaque compared to the more translucent otolith material deposited prior to and after the experimental period, when the fish were kept in a pond and in sea‐cages at higher temperatures. Large variations in otolith opacity were found between individual fish both within groups and between groups. In two of the three groups significantly more translucent otolith material was deposited in response to reduced feeding. Our results show that variations in feeding and hence fish growth resulted in variation in otolith opacity, but the effect was minor compared to that of variations in ambient temperature. The combined influence of these effects, which both act on fish metabolism, are most likely controlling the seasonal opacity changes observed in wild fish. Our results help explain the variations seen in fish at constant temperatures.     

Warmer and browner waters decrease fish biomass production

Climate change studies have long focused on effects of increasing temperatures, often without considering other simultaneously occurring environmental changes, such as browning of waters. Resolving how the combination of warming and browning of aquatic ecosystems affects fish biomass production is essential for future ecosystem functioning, fisheries, and food security. In this study, we analyzed individual‐ and population‐level fish data from 52 temperate and boreal lakes in Northern Europe, covering large gradients in water temperature and color (absorbance, 420 nm). We show that fish (Eurasian perch, Perca fluviatilis) biomass production decreased with both high water temperatures and brown water color, being lowest in warm and brown lakes. However, while both high temperature and brown water decreased fish biomass production, the mechanisms behind the decrease differed: temperature affected the fish biomass production mainly through a decrease in population standing stock biomass, and through shifts in size‐ and age‐distributions toward a higher proportion of young and small individuals in warm lakes; brown water color, on the other hand, mainly influenced fish biomass production through negative effects on individual body growth and length‐at‐age. In addition to these findings, we observed that the effects of temperature and brown water color on individual‐level processes varied over ontogeny. Body growth only responded positively to higher temperatures among young perch, and brown water color had a stronger negative effect on body growth of old than on young individuals. Thus, to better understand and predict future fish biomass production, it is necessary to integrate both individual‐ and population‐level responses and to acknowledge within‐species variation. Our results suggest that global climate change, leading to browner and warmer waters, may negatively affect fish biomass production, and this effect may be stronger than caused by increased temperature or water color alone.     

Impacts of drought and predicted effects of climate change on fish growth in temperate Australian lakes

Climate change is expected to negatively impact many freshwater environments due to reductions in stream‐flow and increases in temperature. These conditions, however, can already be found today in areas experiencing significant drought; current observations of species' responses to droughts can be used to make predictions about their future responses to climate change. Using otolith analysis, we recreated golden perch (Macquaria ambigua) growth chronologies from two temperate lake populations in southeastern Australia over a 15‐year period pre‐ and during a supraseasonal drought. We related interannual growth variation to landscape‐scale changes in temperature and hydrological regimes: fish growth declined as water levels in the lakes dropped during the drought, but this effect was offset by increased growth in warmer years. We hypothesize that golden perch are responding to fluctuations in food availability and intraspecific competition related to water level and to an optimization of physiological growth conditions related to increases in growing season length. Based on our analyses, we made predictions of future growth under a number of climate change scenarios that incorporate forecast deviations in stream‐flows and air temperature. Despite climatic models predicting significant declines in future water availability, fish growth may increase due to a disproportionate lengthening of the growing season. As the two lakes are at the limit of the southerly range of golden perch, our results are consistent with previous findings of climate‐change driven latitudinal range shifts in a poleward direction. We discuss assumptions concerning the constancy of ecological interactions into the future that warrant further study. Our research provides a novel application of biochronological analysis that could be used elsewhere to further our knowledge of species responses to changing environments.     

Strong evidence for changing fish reproductive phenology under climate warming on the Tibetan Plateau

Phenological responses to climate change have been widely observed and have profound and lasting effects on ecosystems and biodiversity. However, compared to terrestrial ecosystems, the long‐term effects of climate change on species’ phenology are poorly understood in aquatic ecosystems. Understanding the long‐term changes in fish reproductive phenology is essential for predicting population dynamics and for informing management strategies, but is currently hampered by the requirement for intensive field observations and larval identification. In this study, a very low‐frequency sampling of juveniles and adults combined with otolith measurements (long axis length of the first annulus; LAFA) of an endemic Tibetan Plateau fish (Gymnocypris selincuoensis) was used to examine changes in reproductive phenology associated with climate changes from the 1970s to 2000s. Assigning individual fish to their appropriate calendar year class was assisted by dendrochronological methods (crossdating). The results demonstrated that LAFA was significantly and positively associated with temperature and growing season length. To separate the effects of temperature and the growing season length on LAFA growth, measurements of larval otoliths from different sites were conducted and revealed that daily increment additions were the main contributor (46.3%), while temperature contributed less (12.0%). Using constructed water‐air temperature relationships and historical air temperature records, we found that the reproductive phenology of G. selincuoensis was strongly advanced in the spring during the 1970s and 1990s, while the increased growing season length in the 2000s was mainly due to a delayed onset of winter. The reproductive phenology of G. selincuoensis advanced 2.9 days per decade on average from the 1970s to 2000s, and may have effects on recruitment success and population dynamics of this species and other biota in the ecosystem via the food web. The methods used in this study are applicable for studying reproductive phenological changes across a wide range of species and ecosystems.     

Relationships between fish size and otolith size of four bathydemersal fish species from the south eastern Arabian Sea,India

The objective of this study was to estimate a prey body size from the hard parts (e.g. otoliths) of a fish species frequently found in the guts of predators. Length–weight relationships between otolith size (length, height, weight and aspect ratio) and fish size (total length and weight) were determined for four fish species captured in the Arabian Sea by bottom trawl (2015 survey on‐board FORV Sagar Sampada, 200–300 m depth), off the west coast of India: Psenopsis cyanea, Pterygotrigla hemisticta, Bembrops caudimacula and Hoplostethus rubellopterus. No significant differences were noted between the size of the left and right otoliths (t test) in any of the four species. The length–weight relationship of the otolith in all four species showed a negative allometric growth pattern (t test, p < .05). The data fitted well to the regression model for otolith length (OL), otolith height (OH) and otolith weight (OW) to total length (TL) and total weight (TW). Results showed that these relationships are a helpful tool in predicting fish size from the otoliths and in calculating the biomass of these less‐studied fish species during feeding studies and palaentology.     

Response to ocean acidification in larvae of a large tropical marine fish,Rachycentron canadum

Currently, ocean acidification is occurring at a faster rate than at any time in the last 300 million years, posing an ecological challenge to marine organisms globally. There is a critical need to understand the effects of acidification on the vulnerable larval stages of marine fishes, as there is potential for large ecological and economic impacts on fish populations and the human economies that rely on them. We expand upon the narrow taxonomic scope found in the literature today, which overlooks many life history characteristics of harvested species, by reporting on the larvae of Rachycentron canadum (cobia), a large, highly mobile, pelagic‐spawning, widely distributed species with a life history and fishery value contrasting other species studied to date. We raised larval cobia through the first 3 weeks of ontogeny under conditions of predicted future ocean acidification to determine effects on somatic growth, development, otolith formation, swimming ability, and swimming activity. Cobia exhibited resistance to treatment effects on growth, development, swimming ability, and swimming activity at 800 and 2100 μatm pCO₂. However, these scenarios resulted in a significant increase in otolith size (up to 25% larger area) at the lowest pCO₂ levels reported to date, as well as the first report of significantly wider daily otolith growth increments. When raised under more extreme scenarios of 3500 and 5400 μatm pCO₂, cobia exhibited significantly reduced size‐at‐age (up to 25% smaller) and a 2–3 days developmental delay. The robust nature of cobia may be due to the naturally variable environmental conditions this species currently encounters throughout ontogeny in coastal environments, which may lead to an increased acclimatization ability even during long‐term exposure to stressors.     

Evidence for climate‐driven synchrony of marine and terrestrial ecosystems in northwest Australia

The effects of climate change are difficult to predict for many marine species because little is known of their response to climate variations in the past. However, long‐term chronologies of growth, a variable that integrates multiple physical and biological factors, are now available for several marine taxa. These allow us to search for climate‐driven synchrony in growth across multiple taxa and ecosystems, identifying the key processes driving biological responses at very large spatial scales. We hypothesized that in northwest (NW) Australia, a region that is predicted to be strongly influenced by climate change, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon would be an important factor influencing the growth patterns of organisms in both marine and terrestrial environments. To test this idea, we analyzed existing growth chronologies of the marine fish Lutjanus argentimaculatus, the coral Porites spp. and the tree Callitris columellaris and developed a new chronology for another marine fish, Lethrinus nebulosus. Principal components analysis and linear model selection showed evidence of ENSO‐driven synchrony in growth among all four taxa at interannual time scales, the first such result for the Southern Hemisphere. Rainfall, sea surface temperatures, and sea surface salinities, which are linked to the ENSO system, influenced the annual growth of fishes, trees, and corals. All four taxa had negative relationships with the Niño‐4 index (a measure of ENSO status), with positive growth patterns occurring during strong La Niña years. This finding implies that future changes in the strength and frequency of ENSO events are likely to have major consequences for both marine and terrestrial taxa. Strong similarities in the growth patterns of fish and trees offer the possibility of using tree‐ring chronologies, which span longer time periods than those of fish, to aid understanding of both historical and future responses of fish populations to climate variation.     

Climate change alters the reproductive phenology and investment of a lacustrine fish,the three‐spine stickleback

High‐latitude lakes are particularly sensitive to the effects of global climate change, demonstrating earlier ice breakup, longer ice‐free seasons, and increased water temperatures. Such physical changes have implications for diverse life‐history traits in taxa across entire lake food webs. Here, we use a five‐decade time series from an Alaskan lake to explore effects of climate change on growth and reproduction of a widely distributed lacustrine fish, the three‐spine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus). We used multivariate autoregressive state‐space (MARSS) models to describe trends in the mean length for multiple size classes and to explore the influence of physical (date of ice breakup, surface water temperature) and biological (density of con‐ and heterospecifics) factors. As predicted, mean size of age 1 and older fish at the end of the growing season increased across years with earlier ice breakup and warmer temperatures. In contrast, mean size of age 0 fish decreased over time. Overall, lower fish density and warmer water temperatures were associated with larger size for all cohorts. Earlier ice breakup was associated with larger size for age 1 and older fish but, paradoxically, with smaller size of age 0 fish. To explore this latter result, we used mixing models on age 0 size distributions, which revealed an additional cohort in years with early ice breakup, lowering the mean size of age 0 fish. Moreover, early ice breakup was associated with earlier breeding, evidenced by earlier capture of age 0 fish. Our results suggest that early ice breakup altered both timing and frequency of breeding; three‐spine stickleback spawned earlier and more often in response to earlier ice breakup date. While previous studies have shown the influence of changing conditions in northern lakes on breeding timing and growth, this is the first to document increased breeding frequency, highlighting another pathway by which climate change can alter the ecology of northern lakes.     

Warming temperatures and smaller body sizes: synchronous changes in growth of North Sea fishes

Decreasing body size has been proposed as a universal response to increasing temperatures. The physiology behind the response is well established for ectotherms inhabiting aquatic environments: as higher temperatures decrease the aerobic capacity, individuals with smaller body sizes have a reduced risk of oxygen deprivation. However, empirical evidence of this response at the scale of communities and ecosystems is lacking for marine fish species. Here, we show that over a 40‐year period six of eight commercial fish species in the North Sea examined underwent concomitant reductions in asymptotic body size with the synchronous component of the total variability coinciding with a 1–2 °C increase in water temperature. Smaller body sizes decreased the yield‐per‐recruit of these stocks by an average of 23%. Although it is not possible to ascribe these phenotypic changes unequivocally to temperature, four aspects support this interpretation: (i) the synchronous trend was detected across species varying in their life history and life style; (ii) the decrease coincided with the period of increasing temperature; (iii) the direction of the phenotypic change is consistent with physiological knowledge; and (iv) no cross‐species synchrony was detected in other species‐specific factors potentially impacting growth. Our findings support a recent model‐derived prediction that fish size will shrink in response to climate‐induced changes in temperature and oxygen. The smaller body sizes being projected for the future are already detectable in the North Sea.     

Bio‐energetics underpins the spatial response of North Sea plaice (Pleuronectes platessa L.) and sole (Solea solea L.) to climate change

Climate change is currently one of the main driving forces behind changes in species distributions, and understanding the mechanisms that underpin macroecological patterns is necessary for a more predictive science. Warming sea water temperatures are expected to drive changes in ectothermic marine species ranges due to their thermal tolerance levels. Here, we develop a mechanistic tool to predict size‐ and season‐specific distributions based on the physiology of the species and the temperature and food conditions in the sea. The effects of climate conditions on physiological‐based habitat utilization was then examined for different size‐classes of two commercially important fish species in the North Sea, plaice, Pleuronectes platessa, and sole, Solea solea. The two species provide an attractive comparison as they differ in their physiology (e.g. preferred temperature range). Combining dynamic energy budget (DEB) models with the temperature and food conditions estimated by an ecosystem model (ERSEM), allowed spatial differences in potential growth (as a proxy for habitat quality) to be estimated for 2 years with contrasting temperature and food conditions. The resulting habitat quality maps were in broad agreement with observed ontogenetic and seasonal changes in distribution as well as with the recent changes in distribution which could be attributed to an increase in coastal temperatures. Our physiological‐based model provides a powerful tool to explore the effect of climate change on the spatio‐temporal fish dynamics, predict effects of local or broad‐scale environmental changes and provide a physiological basis for observed changes in species distributions.     

Using otolith weight to age fish

The problem of determining and verifying ages of fish, from populations having a considerable variation in size at age, has been investigated using the relationship between otolith size and fish size, which has been shown by several authors to be influenced by growth rate. In such a population of Sardinella aurita Val. an index of age can be obtained for individual fish by calculating the equivalent otolith weight at a particular fish length, using the otolith weight–fish length relationship determined for each age group. This statistic not only permits a much greater proportion of fish to be assigned ages than is possible with otolith reading alone, but also enables the age groups to be verified as year classes. However, it is concluded that, although appropriate models based on otolith-fish size relationships can predict age for groups of fish in which growth rates are known or can be assumed to be consistent, such techniques have a limited application in ageing fish from wild populations with highly variable growth rates.