Risk analysis reveals global hotspots for marine debris ingestion by sea turtles

Plastic marine debris pollution is rapidly becoming one of the critical environmental concerns facing wildlife in the 21st century. Here we present a risk analysis for plastic ingestion by sea turtles on a global scale. We combined global marine plastic distributions based on ocean drifter data with sea turtle habitat maps to predict exposure levels to plastic pollution. Empirical data from necropsies of deceased animals were then utilised to assess the consequence of exposure to plastics. We modelled the risk (probability of debris ingestion) by incorporating exposure to debris and consequence of exposure, and included life history stage, species of sea turtle and date of stranding observation as possible additional explanatory factors. Life history stage is the best predictor of debris ingestion, but the best‐fit model also incorporates encounter rates within a limited distance from stranding location, marine debris predictions specific to the date of the stranding study and turtle species. There is no difference in ingestion rates between stranded turtles vs. those caught as bycatch from fishing activity, suggesting that stranded animals are not a biased representation of debris ingestion rates in the background population. Oceanic life‐stage sea turtles are at the highest risk of debris ingestion, and olive ridley turtles are the most at‐risk species. The regions of highest risk to global sea turtle populations are off of the east coasts of the USA, Australia and South Africa; the east Indian Ocean, and Southeast Asia. Model results can be used to predict the number of sea turtles globally at risk of debris ingestion. Based on currently available data, initial calculations indicate that up to 52% of sea turtles may have ingested debris.     

Gastric cancer prevention targeted on risk assessment: Gastritis OLGA staging

Gastric cancer (GC) ranks among the most lethal epithelial malignancies, and its striking mortality rate prompts a global prevention strategy. Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) gastritis is the main GC promoter, and the 2014 Global Kyoto conference recognized H. pylori gastritis as a (treatable) infectious disease. It is therefore plausible that any large‐scale intervention for H. pylori eradication would result in cleansing the world of the fifth cause of cancer‐related death. Atrophic gastritis is the cancerization field in which GCs (both intestinal and diffuse histotypes) mainly develop. Discontinuing the inflammatory cascade triggered by H. pylori is tantamount to preventing GC. For patients (still infected or eradicated) who have already developed gastric atrophy, the severity/topography of the atrophic changes correlates with their cancer risk. Gastritis OLGA (Operative Link for Gastritis Assessment) staging consistently ranks the atrophy‐associated cancer risk, providing a solid clinical/biological rationale for establishing patient‐specific surveillance programs. By combining primary and secondary prevention strategies, gastric cancer is a preventable disease.