Filter-feeding gelatinous macrozooplankton response to climate change and implications for benthic food supply and global carbon cycle

It is often suggested that gelatinous zooplankton may benefit from anthropogenic pressures of all kinds and in particular from climate change. Large pelagic tunicates, for example, are likely to be favored over other types of macrozooplankton due to their filter-feeding mode, which gives them access to small preys thought to be less affected by climate change than larger preys. In this study, we provide model-based estimate of potential community changes in macrozooplankton composition and estimate for the first time their effects on benthic food supply and on the ocean carbon cycle under two 21st-century climate-change scenarios. Forced with output from an Earth System Model climate projections, our ocean biogeochemical model simulates a large reduction in macrozooplankton biomass in response to anthropogenic climate change, but shows that gelatinous macrozooplankton are less affected than nongelatinous macrozooplankton, with global biomass declines estimated at −2.8% and −3.5%, respectively, for every 1°C of warming. The inclusion of gelatinous macrozooplankon in our ocean biogeochemical model has a limited effect on anthropogenic carbon uptake in the 21st century, but impacts the projected decline in particulate organic matter fluxes in the deep ocean. In subtropical oligotrophic gyres, where gelatinous zooplankton dominate macrozooplankton, the decline in the amount of organic matter reaching the seafloor is reduced by a factor of 2 when gelatinous macrozooplankton are considered (−17.5% vs. −29.7% when gelatinous macrozooplankton are not considered, all for 2100 under RCP8.5). The shift to gelatinous macrozooplankton in the future ocean therefore buffers the decline in deep carbon fluxes and should be taken into account when assessing potential changes in deep carbon storage and the risks that deep ecosystems may face when confronted with a decline in their food source.     

Climate change undermines the global functioning of marine food webs

Sea water temperature affects all biological and ecological processes that ultimately impact ecosystem functioning. In this study, we examine the influence of temperature on global biomass transfers from marine secondary production to fish stocks. By combining fisheries catches in all coastal ocean areas and life‐history traits of exploited marine species, we provide global estimates of two trophic transfer parameters which determine biomass flows in coastal marine food web: the trophic transfer efficiency (TTE) and the biomass residence time (BRT) in the food web. We find that biomass transfers in tropical ecosystems are less efficient and faster than in areas with cooler waters. In contrast, biomass transfers through the food web became faster and more efficient between 1950 and 2010. Using simulated changes in sea water temperature from three Earth system models, we project that the mean TTE in coastal waters would decrease from 7.7% to 7.2% between 2010 and 2100 under the ‘no effective mitigation’ representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), while BRT between trophic levels 2 and 4 is projected to decrease from 2.7 to 2.3 years on average. Beyond the global trends, we show that the TTEs and BRTs may vary substantially among ecosystem types and that the polar ecosystems may be the most impacted ecosystems. The detected and projected changes in mean TTE and BRT will undermine food web functioning. Our study provides quantitative understanding of temperature effects on trophodynamic of marine ecosystems under climate change.     

Twenty‐first‐century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins

Climate change effects on marine ecosystems include impacts on primary production, ocean temperature, species distributions, and abundance at local to global scales. These changes will significantly alter marine ecosystem structure and function with associated socio‐economic impacts on ecosystem services, marine fisheries, and fishery‐dependent societies. Yet how these changes may play out among ocean basins over the 21st century remains unclear, with most projections coming from single ecosystem models that do not adequately capture the range of model uncertainty. We address this by using six marine ecosystem models within the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish‐MIP) to analyze responses of marine animal biomass in all major ocean basins to contrasting climate change scenarios. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), total marine animal biomass declined by an ensemble mean of 15%–30% (±12%–17%) in the North and South Atlantic and Pacific, and the Indian Ocean by 2100, whereas polar ocean basins experienced a 20%–80% (±35%–200%) increase. Uncertainty and model disagreement were greatest in the Arctic and smallest in the South Pacific Ocean. Projected changes were reduced under a low (RCP2.6) emissions scenario. Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, biomass projections were highly correlated with changes in net primary production and negatively correlated with projected sea surface temperature increases across all ocean basins except the polar oceans. Ecosystem structure was projected to shift as animal biomass concentrated in different size‐classes across ocean basins and emissions scenarios. We highlight that climate change mitigation measures could moderate the impacts on marine animal biomass by reducing biomass declines in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins. The range of individual model projections emphasizes the importance of using an ensemble approach in assessing uncertainty of future change.     

Big in the benthos: Future change of seafloor community biomass in a global,body size‐resolved model

Deep‐water benthic communities in the ocean are almost wholly dependent on near‐surface pelagic ecosystems for their supply of energy and material resources. Primary production in sunlit surface waters is channelled through complex food webs that extensively recycle organic material, but lose a fraction as particulate organic carbon (POC) that sinks into the ocean interior. This exported production is further rarefied by microbial breakdown in the abyssal ocean, but a residual ultimately drives diverse assemblages of seafloor heterotrophs. Advances have led to an understanding of the importance of size (body mass) in structuring these communities. Here we force a size‐resolved benthic biomass model, BORIS, using seafloor POC flux from a coupled ocean‐biogeochemistry model, NEMO‐MEDUSA, to investigate global patterns in benthic biomass. BORIS resolves 16 size classes of metazoans, successively doubling in mass from approximately 1 μg to 28 mg. Simulations find a wide range of seasonal responses to differing patterns of POC forcing, with both a decline in seasonal variability, and an increase in peak lag times with increasing body size. However, the dominant factor for modelled benthic communities is the integrated magnitude of POC reaching the seafloor rather than its seasonal pattern. Scenarios of POC forcing under climate change and ocean acidification are then applied to investigate how benthic communities may change under different future conditions. Against a backdrop of falling surface primary production (?6.1%), and driven by changes in pelagic remineralization with depth, results show that while benthic communities in shallow seas generally show higher biomass in a warmed world (+3.2%), deep‐sea communities experience a substantial decline (?32%) under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Our results underscore the importance for benthic ecology of reducing uncertainty in the magnitude and seasonality of seafloor POC fluxes, as well as the importance of studying a broader range of seafloor environments for future model development.     

Going with the flow: the role of ocean circulation in global marine ecosystems under a changing climate

Ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced productivity are widely considered to be the major stressors to ocean ecosystems induced by emissions of CO₂. However, an overlooked stressor is the change in ocean circulation in response to climate change. Strong changes in the intensity and position of the western boundary currents have already been observed, and the consequences of such changes for ecosystems are beginning to emerge. In this study, we address climatically induced changes in ocean circulation on a global scale but relevant to propagule dispersal for species inhabiting global shelf ecosystems, using a high‐resolution global ocean model run under the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario. The ¼ degree model resolution allows improved regional realism of the ocean circulation beyond that of available CMIP5‐class models. We use a Lagrangian approach forced by modelled ocean circulation to simulate the circulation pathways that disperse planktonic life stages. Based on trajectory backtracking, we identify present‐day coastal retention, dominant flow and dispersal range for coastal regions at the global scale. Projecting into the future, we identify areas of the strongest projected circulation change and present regional examples with the most significant modifications in their dominant pathways. Climatically induced changes in ocean circulation should be considered as an additional stressor of marine ecosystems in a similar way to ocean warming or acidification.     

Global patterns and predictions of seafloor biomass using random forests

A comprehensive seafloor biomass and abundance database has been constructed from 24 oceanographic institutions worldwide within the Census of Marine Life (CoML) field projects. The machine-learning algorithm, Random Forests, was employed to model and predict seafloor standing stocks from surface primary production, water-column integrated and export particulate organic matter (POM), seafloor relief, and bottom water properties. The predictive models explain 63% to 88% of stock variance among the major size groups. Individual and composite maps of predicted global seafloor biomass and abundance are generated for bacteria, meiofauna, macrofauna, and megafauna (invertebrates and fishes). Patterns of benthic standing stocks were positive functions of surface primary production and delivery of the particulate organic carbon (POC) flux to the seafloor. At a regional scale, the census maps illustrate that integrated biomass is highest at the poles, on continental margins associated with coastal upwelling and with broad zones associated with equatorial divergence. Lowest values are consistently encountered on the central abyssal plains of major ocean basins The shift of biomass dominance groups with depth is shown to be affected by the decrease in average body size rather than abundance, presumably due to decrease in quantity and quality of food supply. This biomass census and associated maps are vital components of mechanistic deep-sea food web models and global carbon cycling, and as such provide fundamental information that can be incorporated into evidence-based management.     

Spatial and body‐size dependent response of marine pelagic communities to projected global climate change

Temperature, oxygen, and food availability directly affect marine life. Climate models project a global warming of the ocean's surface (~+3 °C), a de‐oxygenation of the ocean's interior (~?3%) and a decrease in total marine net primary production (~?8%) under the ‘business as usual’ climate change scenario (RCP8.5). We estimated the effects of these changes on biological communities using a coupled biogeochemical (PISCES) – ecosystems (APECOSM) model forced by the physical outputs of the last generation of the IPSL‐CM Earth System Model. The APECOSM model is a size‐structured bio‐energetic model that simulates the 3D dynamical distributions of three interactive pelagic communities (epipelagic, mesopelagic, and migratory) under the effects of multiple environmental factors. The PISCES‐APECOSM model ran from 1850 to 2100 under historical forcing followed by RCP8.5. Our RCP8.5 simulation highlights significant changes in the spatial distribution, biomass, and maximum body‐size of the simulated pelagic communities. Biomass and maximum body‐size increase at high latitude over the course of the century, reflecting the capacity of marine organisms to respond to new suitable environment. At low‐ and midlatitude, biomass and maximum body‐size strongly decrease. In those regions, large organisms cannot maintain their high metabolic needs because of limited and declining food availability. This resource reduction enhances the competition and modifies the biomass distribution among and within the three communities: the proportion of small organisms increases in the three communities and the migrant community that initially comprised a higher proportion of small organisms is favored. The greater resilience of small body‐size organisms resides in their capacity to fulfill their metabolic needs under reduced energy supply and is further favored by the release of predation pressure due to the decline of large organisms. These results suggest that small body‐size organisms might be more resilient to climate change than large ones.     

Kelp carbon sink potential decreases with warming due to accelerating decomposition

Cycling of organic carbon in the ocean has the potential to mitigate or exacerbate global climate change, but major questions remain about the environmental controls on organic carbon flux in the coastal zone. Here, we used a field experiment distributed across 28° of latitude, and the entire range of 2 dominant kelp species in the northern hemisphere, to measure decomposition rates of kelp detritus on the seafloor in relation to local environmental factors. Detritus decomposition in both species were strongly related to ocean temperature and initial carbon content, with higher rates of biomass loss at lower latitudes with warmer temperatures. Our experiment showed slow overall decomposition and turnover of kelp detritus and modeling of coastal residence times at our study sites revealed that a significant portion of this production can remain intact long enough to reach deep marine sinks. The results suggest that decomposition of these kelp species could accelerate with ocean warming and that low-latitude kelp forests could experience the greatest increase in remineralization with a 9% to 42% reduced potential for transport to long-term ocean sinks under short-term (RCP4.5) and long-term (RCP8.5) warming scenarios. However, slow decomposition at high latitudes, where kelp abundance is predicted to expand, indicates potential for increasing kelp-carbon sinks in cooler (northern) regions. Our findings reveal an important latitudinal gradient in coastal ecosystem function that provides an improved capacity to predict the implications of ocean warming on carbon cycling. Broad-scale patterns in organic carbon decomposition revealed here can be used to identify hotspots of carbon sequestration potential and resolve relationships between carbon cycling processes and ocean climate at a global scale.

Cycling of organic carbon in the ocean has the potential to mitigate or exacerbate global climate change, but how is this influenced by the environment? A field experiment at 35 sites spanning 12 geographic regions allows measurement of decomposition rates and changes in carbon content of kelp detritus in coastal habitats, revealing a strong influence of an ocean-temperature gradient on decomposition.     

The meagre future of benthic fauna in a coastal sea—Benthic responses to recovery from eutrophication in a changing climate

Nutrient loading and climate change affect coastal ecosystems worldwide. Unravelling the combined effects of these pressures on benthic macrofauna is essential for understanding the future functioning of coastal ecosystems, as it is an important component linking the benthic and pelagic realms. In this study, we extended an existing model of benthic macrofauna coupled with a physical–biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea to study the combined effects of changing nutrient loads and climate on biomass and metabolism of benthic macrofauna historically and in scenarios for the future. Based on a statistical comparison with a large validation dataset of measured biomasses, the model showed good or reasonable performance across the different basins and depth strata in the model area. In scenarios with decreasing nutrient loads according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan but also with continued recent loads (mean loads 2012–2014), overall macrofaunal biomass and carbon processing were projected to decrease significantly by the end of the century despite improved oxygen conditions at the seafloor. Climate change led to intensified pelagic recycling of primary production and reduced export of particulate organic carbon to the seafloor with negative effects on macrofaunal biomass. In the high nutrient load scenario, representing the highest recorded historical loads, climate change counteracted the effects of increased productivity leading to a hyperbolic response: biomass and carbon processing increased up to mid‐21st century but then decreased, giving almost no net change by the end of the 21st century compared to present. The study shows that benthic responses to environmental change are nonlinear and partly decoupled from pelagic responses and indicates that benthic–pelagic coupling might be weaker in a warmer and less eutrophic sea.     

Consistent trophic amplification of marine biomass declines under climate change

The impact of climate change on the marine food web is highly uncertain. Nonetheless, there is growing consensus that global marine primary production will decline in response to future climate change, largely due to increased stratification reducing the supply of nutrients to the upper ocean. Evidence to date suggests a potential amplification of this response throughout the trophic food web, with more dramatic responses at higher trophic levels. Here we show that trophic amplification of marine biomass declines is a consistent feature of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Earth System Models, across different scenarios of future climate change. Under the business‐as‐usual Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) global mean phytoplankton biomass is projected to decline by 6.1% ± 2.5% over the twenty‐first century, while zooplankton biomass declines by 13.6% ± 3.0%. All models project greater relative declines in zooplankton than phytoplankton, with annual zooplankton biomass anomalies 2.24 ± 1.03 times those of phytoplankton. The low latitude oceans drive the projected trophic amplification of biomass declines, with models exhibiting variable trophic interactions in the mid‐to‐high latitudes and similar relative changes in phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Under the assumption that zooplankton biomass is prey limited, an analytical explanation of the trophic amplification that occurs in the low latitudes can be derived from generic plankton differential equations. Using an ocean biogeochemical model, we show that the inclusion of variable C:N:P phytoplankton stoichiometry can substantially increase the trophic amplification of biomass declines in low latitude regions. This additional trophic amplification is driven by enhanced nutrient limitation decreasing phytoplankton N and P content relative to C, hence reducing zooplankton growth efficiency. Given that most current Earth System Models assume that phytoplankton C:N:P stoichiometry is constant, such models are likely to underestimate the extent of negative trophic amplification under projected climate change.     

Aboveground Forest Biomass and the Global Carbon Balance

The long‐term net flux of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere has been dominated by two factors: changes in the area of forests and per hectare changes in forest biomass resulting from management and regrowth. While these factors are reasonably well documented in countries of the northern mid‐latitudes as a result of systematic forest inventories, they are uncertain in the tropics. Recent estimates of carbon emissions from tropical deforestation have focused on the uncertainty in rates of deforestation. By using the same data for biomass, however, these studies have underestimated the total uncertainty of tropical emissions and may have biased the estimates. In particular, regional and country‐specific estimates of forest biomass reported by three successive assessments of tropical forest resources by the FAO indicate systematic changes in biomass that have not been taken into account in recent estimates of tropical carbon emissions. The ‘changes’ more likely represent improved information than real on‐the‐ground changes in carbon storage. In either case, however, the data have a significant effect on current estimates of carbon emissions from the tropics and, hence, on understanding the global carbon balance.     

Tree‐ring analysis and modeling approaches yield contrary response of circumboreal forest productivity to climate change

Circumboreal forest ecosystems are exposed to a larger magnitude of warming in comparison with the global average, as a result of warming‐induced environmental changes. However, it is not clear how tree growth in these ecosystems responds to these changes. In this study, we investigated the sensitivity of forest productivity to climate change using ring width indices (RWI) from a tree‐ring width dataset accessed from the International Tree‐Ring Data Bank and gridded climate datasets from the Climate Research Unit. A negative relationship of RWI with summer temperature and recent reductions in RWI were typically observed in continental dry regions, such as inner Alaska and Canada, southern Europe, and the southern part of eastern Siberia. We then developed a multiple regression model with regional meteorological parameters to predict RWI, and then applied to these models to predict how tree growth will respond to twenty‐first‐century climate change (RCP8.5 scenario). The projections showed a spatial variation and future continuous reduction in tree growth in those continental dry regions. The spatial variation, however, could not be reproduced by a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). The DGVM projected a generally positive trend in future tree growth all over the circumboreal region. These results indicate that DGVMs may overestimate future wood net primary productivity (NPP) in continental dry regions such as these; this seems to be common feature of current DGVMs. DGVMs should be able to express the negative effect of warming on tree growth, so that they simulate the observed recent reduction in tree growth in continental dry regions.     

Roles of food web and heterotrophic microbial processes in upper ocean biogeochemistry: Global patterns and processes

The growth and dynamics of plankton in the ocean vary with natural cycles, global climate change and the long-term evolution of ecosystems. The ocean is a large reservoir for CO₂ and the food webs in the upper ocean play critical roles in regulating the global carbon cycle, changes in atmospheric CO₂ and associated global warming. Microheterotrophs are a key component of the upper ocean food webs. Here, we report on the results of an analysis of the distribution of bacteria and related properties in the World Ocean. We found that, for the data set as a whole, there is a significant latitudinal gradient in all field-measured and computed bacterial properties, except growth rate. Gradients were, for the most part, driven by an equator-ward increase in the Southern Hemisphere. The biomass, rates of production and respiration and dissolved organic carbon concentrations were significantly higher in the Northern than the Southern hemispheres. In contrast, growth rates were the same in the two hemispheres. We conclude that the lower biomass and production in the Southern Hemisphere reflects greater top-down control by microbial grazers, which would be due to a lower abundance or activity of omnivorous zooplankton in the Southern than Northern Hemispheres. These large spatial differences in dynamics, structure and activity of the bacterial community and the microbial food web will be reflected in different patterns of carbon cycling, export and air–sea exchange of CO₂ and the potential ability of the ocean to sequester carbon.     

Predicting the responses of forest distribution and aboveground biomass to climate change under RCP scenarios in southern China

In the past three decades, our global climate has been experiencing unprecedented warming. This warming has and will continue to significantly influence the structure and function of forest ecosystems. While studies have been conducted to explore the possible responses of forest landscapes to future climate change, the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios under the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) have not been widely used in quantitative modeling research of forest landscapes. We used LANDIS‐II, a forest dynamic landscape model, coupled with a forest ecosystem process model (PnET‐II), to simulate spatial interactions and ecological succession processes under RCP scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. We also modeled a control scenario of extrapolating current climate conditions to examine changes in distribution and aboveground biomass (AGB) among five different forest types for the period of 2010–2100 in Taihe County in southern China, where subtropical coniferous plantations dominate. The results of the simulation show that climate change will significantly influence forest distribution and AGB. (i) Evergreen broad‐leaved forests will expand into Chinese fir and Chinese weeping cypress forests. The area percentages of evergreen broad‐leaved forests under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and the control scenarios account for 18.25%, 18.71%, 18.85% and 17.46% of total forest area, respectively. (ii) The total AGB under RCP4.5 will reach its highest level by the year 2100. Compared with the control scenarios, the total AGB under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 increases by 24.1%, 64.2% and 29.8%, respectively. (iii) The forest total AGB increases rapidly at first and then decreases slowly on the temporal dimension. (iv) Even though the fluctuation patterns of total AGB will remain consistent under various future climatic scenarios, there will be certain responsive differences among various forest types.     

Ocean iron fertilization may amplify climate change pressures on marine animal biomass for limited climate benefit

Climate change scenarios suggest that large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will be required to maintain global warming below 2°C, leading to renewed attention on ocean iron fertilization (OIF). Previous OIF modelling has found that while carbon export increases, nutrient transport to lower latitude ecosystems declines, resulting in a modest impact on atmospheric CO₂. However, the interaction of these CDR responses with ongoing climate change is unknown. Here, we combine global ocean biogeochemistry and ecosystem models to show that, while stimulating carbon sequestration, OIF may amplify climate-induced declines in tropical ocean productivity and ecosystem biomass under a high-emission scenario, with very limited potential atmospheric CO₂ drawdown. The ‘biogeochemical fingerprint’ of climate change, that leads to depletion of upper ocean major nutrients due to upper ocean stratification, is reinforced by OIF due to greater major nutrient consumption. Our simulations show that reductions in upper trophic level animal biomass in tropical regions due to climate change would be exacerbated by OIF within ~20 years, especially in coastal exclusive economic zones (EEZs), with potential implications for fisheries that underpin the livelihoods and economies of coastal communities. Any fertilization-based CDR should therefore consider its interaction with ongoing climate-driven changes and the ensuing ecosystem impacts in national EEZs.     

Modelling past and future peatland carbon dynamics across the pan‐Arctic

The majority of northern peatlands were initiated during the Holocene. Owing to their mass imbalance, they have sequestered huge amounts of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. Although recent syntheses have filled some knowledge gaps, the extent and remoteness of many peatlands pose challenges to developing reliable regional carbon accumulation estimates from observations. In this work, we employed an individual‐ and patch‐based dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ‐GUESS) with peatland and permafrost functionality to quantify long‐term carbon accumulation rates in northern peatlands and to assess the effects of historical and projected future climate change on peatland carbon balance. We combined published datasets of peat basal age to form an up‐to‐date peat inception surface for the pan‐Arctic region which we then used to constrain the model. We divided our analysis into two parts, with a focus both on the carbon accumulation changes detected within the observed peatland boundary and at pan‐Arctic scale under two contrasting warming scenarios (representative concentration pathway—RCP8.5 and RCP2.6). We found that peatlands continue to act as carbon sinks under both warming scenarios, but their sink capacity will be substantially reduced under the high‐warming (RCP8.5) scenario after 2050. Areas where peat production was initially hampered by permafrost and low productivity were found to accumulate more carbon because of the initial warming and moisture‐rich environment due to permafrost thaw, higher precipitation and elevated CO₂ levels. On the other hand, we project that areas which will experience reduced precipitation rates and those without permafrost will lose more carbon in the near future, particularly peatlands located in the European region and between 45 and 55°N latitude. Overall, we found that rapid global warming could reduce the carbon sink capacity of the northern peatlands in the coming decades.     

Thermoregulatory traits combine with range shifts to alter the future of montane ant assemblages

Predicting and understanding the biological response to future climate change is a pressing challenge for humanity. In the 21st century, many species will move into higher latitudes and higher elevations as the climate warms. In addition, the relative abundances of species within local assemblages are likely to change. Both effects have implications for how ecosystems function. Few biodiversity forecasts, however, take account of both shifting ranges and changing abundances. We provide a novel analysis predicting the potential changes to assemblage‐level relative abundances in the 21st century. We use an established relationship linking ant abundance and their colour and size traits to temperature and UV‐B to predict future abundance changes. We also predict future temperature driven range shifts and use these to alter the available species pool for our trait‐mediated abundance predictions. We do this across three continents under a low greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP2.6) and a business‐as‐usual scenario (RCP8.5). Under RCP2.6, predicted changes to ant assemblages by 2100 are moderate. On average, species richness will increase by 26%, while species composition and relative abundance structure will be 26% and 30% different, respectively, compared with modern assemblages. Under RCP8.5, however, highland assemblages face almost a tripling of species richness and compositional and relative abundance changes of 66% and 77%. Critically, we predict that future assemblages could be reorganized in terms of which species are common and which are rare: future highland assemblages will not simply comprise upslope shifts of modern lowland assemblages. These forecasts reveal the potential for radical change to montane ant assemblages by the end of the 21st century if temperature increases continue. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating trait–environment relationships into future biodiversity predictions. Looking forward, the major challenge is to understand how ecosystem processes will respond to compositional and relative abundance changes.     

Processes of organic carbon in mangrove ecosystems

In addition to carbon accumulation in plants, processes of organic carbon in mangrove ecosystems include origins of sediment organic carbon, carbon fluxes between mangroves and their adjacent systems (coastal waters and atmosphere), and cycling processes. Sediment organic carbon originates from suspending solids in coastal waters, mangrove plants and benthic algae. In mangroves with low organic carbon content in sediments, tidal seawater is the main origin of sediment organic carbon, while in mangroves with high sediment organic carbon contents, sediment organic carbon mainly originates from mangrove plants. Due to tidal flush, there is large material exchange between mangrove ecosystems and their adjacent coastal waters. In China, exports of organic carbon in litter falls and dissolved organic carbon from mangroves to their adjacent coastal waters have not been documented. Processes of mangrove litter falls, including production, decomposition, export and animal consumption, determine linkages among organic carbon among mangrove plants, secondary production and coastal ocean. Consumers especially benthic animals may influence organic carbon in mangrove ecosystems, because (1) their consumption rates are high, and their selective feeding on some food sources will change the relative quantities of export, bury and mineralization of organic carbon from different origins; (2) their consumption is much more than assimilation, resulting in the changes in sizes, forms and qualities of non-assimilated organic matters, and then the changes in availability of export, consumption or mineralization of organic carbon. Respiration and sulfate reduction are important mineralization processes of organic carbon in mangrove sediments. Mineralization rates of organic carbon in mangrove sediments are influenced by quantities, activities and particle sizes of organic matters, and other factors such as forest ages, root activities and animal burrowing activities. Researches on processes of mangrove organic carbon should be based on open systems, and ecological processes of organic carbon should be coupled with vegetation restoration.     

Processes of organic carbon in mangrove ecosystems

In addition to carbon accumulation in plants, processes of organic carbon in mangrove ecosystems include origins of sediment organic carbon, carbon fluxes between mangroves and their adjacent systems (coastal waters and atmosphere), and cycling processes. Sediment organic carbon originates from suspending solids in coastal waters, mangrove plants and benthic algae. In mangroves with low organic carbon content in sediments, tidal seawater is the main origin of sediment organic carbon, while in mangroves with high sediment organic carbon contents, sediment organic carbon mainly originates from mangrove plants. Due to tidal flush, there is large material exchange between mangrove ecosystems and their adjacent coastal waters. In China, exports of organic carbon in litter falls and dissolved organic carbon from mangroves to their adjacent coastal waters have not been documented. Processes of mangrove litter falls, including production, decomposition, export and animal consumption, determine linkages among organic carbon among mangrove plants, secondary production and coastal ocean. Consumers especially benthic animals may influence organic carbon in mangrove ecosystems, because (1) their consumption rates are high, and their selective feeding on some food sources will change the relative quantities of export, bury and mineralization of organic carbon from different origins; (2) their consumption is much more than assimilation, resulting in the changes in sizes, forms and qualities of non-assimilated organic matters, and then the changes in availability of export, consumption or mineralization of organic carbon. Respiration and sulfate reduction are important mineralization processes of organic carbon in mangrove sediments. Mineralization rates of organic carbon in mangrove sediments are influenced by quantities, activities and particle sizes of organic matters, and other factors such as forest ages, root activities and animal burrowing activities. Researches on processes of mangrove organic carbon should be based on open systems, and ecological processes of organic carbon should be coupled with vegetation restoration.     

Bottom‐up and top‐down effects of browning and warming on shallow lake food webs

Productivity and trophic structure of aquatic ecosystems result from a complex interplay of bottom‐up and top‐down forces that operate across benthic and pelagic food web compartments. Projected global changes urge the question how this interplay will be affected by browning (increasing input of terrestrial dissolved organic matter), nutrient enrichment and warming. We explored this with a process‐based model of a shallow lake food web consisting of benthic and pelagic components (abiotic resources, primary producers, grazers, carnivores), and compared model expectations with the results of a browning and warming experiment in nutrient‐poor ponds harboring a boreal lake community. Under low nutrient conditions, the model makes three major predictions. (a) Browning reduces light and increases nutrient supply; this decreases benthic and increases pelagic production, gradually shifting productivity from the benthic to the pelagic habitat. (b) Because of active habitat choice, fish exert top‐down control on grazers and benefit primary producers primarily in the more productive of the two habitats. (c) Warming relaxes top‐down control of grazers by fish and decreases primary producer biomass, but effects of warming are generally small compared to effects of browning and nutrient supply. Experimental results were consistent with most model predictions for browning: light penetration, benthic algal production, and zoobenthos biomass decreased, and pelagic nutrients and pelagic algal production increased with browning. Also consistent with expectations, warming had negative effects on benthic and pelagic algal biomass and weak effects on algal production and zoobenthos and zooplankton biomass. Inconsistent with expectations, browning had no effect on zooplankton and warming effects on fish depended on browning. The model is applicable also to nutrient‐rich systems, and we propose that it is a useful tool for the exploration of the consequences of different climate change scenarios for productivity and food web dynamics in shallow lakes, the worldwide most common lake type.