The Rise and Fall of HIV in High-Prevalence Countries: A Challenge for Mathematical Modeling

Several countries with generalized, high-prevalence HIV epidemics, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, have experienced rapid declines in transmission. These HIV epidemics, often with rapid onsets, have generally been attributed to a combination of factors related to high-risk sexual behavior. The subsequent declines in these countries began prior to widespread therapy or implementation of any other major biomedical prevention. This change has been construed as evidence of behavior change, often on the basis of mathematical models, but direct evidence for behavior changes that would explain these declines is limited. Here, we look at the structure of current models and argue that the common “fixed risk per sexual contact" assumption favors the conclusion of substantial behavior changes. We argue that this assumption ignores reported non-linearities between exposure and risk. Taking this into account, we propose that some of the decline in HIV transmission may be part of the natural dynamics of the epidemic, and that several factors that have traditionally been ignored by modelers for lack of precise quantitative estimates may well hold the key to understanding epidemiologic trends.     

Antiretroviral therapy and demand for HIV testing: Evidence from Zambia

This paper examines the effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on demand for HIV testing and of ART-induced testing on demand for risky sexual behavior. I provide a model of sexual behavior decision-making under uncertainty and estimate the structural parameters of the model using nationally representative survey data from Zambia on HIV testing decisions before and after the introduction of ART. The empirical results indicate that although the introduction of ART appears to have increased HIV testing rates by upwards of 50 percent, the ART allocation process may have limited the prevention benefit of ART-induced testing. Simulation results show that eliminating this prevention inefficiency while holding the supply of ART constant would increase the prevention impact of ART-induced testing more than four-fold. More generally, the analysis indicates that existing studies which examine “universal” testing or quasi-experimental testing programs understate the efficacy of standard voluntary counseling and testing programs.     

Predictors of Inconsistent Condom Use among a Hard to Reach Population of Young Women with Multiple Sexual Partners in Peri-Urban South Africa

Background

Evidence suggests that multiple concurrent sexual partnering may be a key driver of the high HIV prevalence among young women in South Africa. However, little is known about whether and to what extent women who have multiple sexual partners also engage in other high risk sexual behaviors such as inconsistent condom use. And yet, multiple concurrent sexual partnering is of little epidemiological relevance if all partners in these sexual networks use condoms consistently. This study assesses the prevalence of sexual risk behaviors and HIV, and predictors of inconsistent condom use among women aged 16–24 with multiple sexual partners in a peri-urban setting in South Africa.

Methods

We used Respondent Driven Sampling, a sampling strategy for hard-to-reach populations to recruit 259 women aged 16–24 in a bio-behavioral cross-sectional survey in the Western Cape province. Estimates of population proportions and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using the Respondent-Driven Sampling Analysis Tool 5.6 (RDSAT). The primary outcome was inconsistent condom use in the past three months.

Results

Young women reported an average of 7 partners in the past 3 months and a high prevalence of sexual risk behaviors: concurrency (87%), transactional sex (91%) and age mixing (59%). Having >5 sexual partners in the last 3 months doubled the risk of unprotected sex (OR 2.43, CI 1.39–4.25). HIV prevalence was 4% among 16–19 year olds, increasing threefold (12%) at age 20–24.

Discussion

Multiple sexual partnering, where a high number of partners are acquired in a short space of time, is a fertile context for unprotected and risky sexual behavior. The young women featured in this survey present with a constellation of high-risk sexual behaviors that cluster to form a risk syndrome. Carefully tailored repeat bio-behavioral surveillance surveys are recommended for this sub-population.     

广西靖西县1997—2012年HIV/AIDS流行病学特征分析

目的了解广西靖西县1997—2012年HIV/AIDS流行病学状况,分析流行趋势,为制定艾滋病防治措施提供科学依据。方法采用描述流行病学分析方法,对靖西县1997—2012年艾滋病疫情监测资料进行分析。结果靖西县1997—2012年累计报告HIV/AIDS 147例,其中HIV感染者60例,AIDS病人47例,死亡40例;男性95例,女性52例,男女性别比为1.83∶1;以20~49岁青壮年为主,这些年龄组发病率为3.24/10万;传播途径以性接触传播为主,占90.48%;其次为静脉注射毒品传播,占6.80%。结论靖西县艾滋病流行近年呈明显上升趋势,艾滋病已经从高危人群向普通人群扩散传播,性接触传播已经成为艾滋病的主要传播途径,应加强对高危人群性行为的干预,遏制艾滋病传播蔓延。     

The Epidemiology of HIV and Prevention Needs of Men Who Have Sex with Men in Abidjan,Cote d’Ivoire

To determine HIV prevalence and associated risk factors among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire. We conducted a cross-sectional RDS survey of MSM in Abidjan from October 2011 to February 2012. Eligibility criteria included age ≥ 18 years and having had oral or anal sex with another man in the last 12 months. Weighted data analysis was conducted with RDSAT and SAS. We enrolled 603 participants, of whom 601 (99.7%) completed the questionnaire and 581 (96.7%) consented to HIV testing. HIV population prevalence was estimated as 18.0% (95% CI: 13.0-23.1); 86.4% (95% CI: 75.1-94.9) of HIV-positive MSM were unaware of their serostatus. In multivariable analysis, adjusting for age, education, and income, HIV infection was associated with unprotected sex at last sex with a woman, more than two male anal sex partners in last 12 months, inconsistent condom use during anal sex with a man, self-perceived risk of HIV, history of forced sex, history of physical abuse due to MSM status, and not receiving last HIV test result prior to study. HIV prevalence among MSM in Abidjan is more than four times as high as that of general population men. MSM engage in high-risk sexual behavior and most HIV-positive MSM are unaware of their serostatus. Greater access to HIV prevention, care, and treatment services targeted to MSM is necessary.     

Patterns and Distribution of HIV among Adult Men and Women in India

Background

While the estimated prevalence of HIV in India experienced a downward revision in 2007, the patterning and distribution of HIV in the population remains unclear. We examined the individual and state-level socioeconomic patterning of individual HIV status among adult men and women in India as well as the patterning of other individual demographic and behavioral determinants of HIV status.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We conducted logistic regression models accounting for the survey design using nationally representative, cross-sectional data on 100,030 women and men from the 2005–2006 India National Family Health survey which, for the first time, provided objective assessments of HIV seroprevalence. Although there was a weak relationship between household wealth and risk of being HIV-positive, there was a clear negative relationship between individual education attainment and risk of being HIV-positive among both men and women. A 1000 Rupee change in the per capita net state domestic product was associated with a 4% and 5% increase in the risk for positive HIV status among men and women, respectively. State-level income inequality was associated with increased risk of HIV for men. Marital status and selected sexual behavior indicators were significant predictors of HIV status among women whereas the age effect was the most dominant predictor of HIV infection among men.

Conclusions/Significance

Although the prevalence of HIV in India is low, the lack of strong wealth patterning in the risk of HIV suggests a more generalized distribution of HIV risk than some of India''s high-risk group HIV prevention policies have assumed. The positive association between state economic development and individual risk for HIV is intriguing and requires further scrutiny.     

Is self-deception an effective non-cooperative strategy?

Robert Trivers has proposed perhaps the only serious adaptationist account of self-deception—that the primary function of self-deception is to better deceive others. But this account covers only a subset of cases and needs further refinement. A better evolutionary account of self-deception and cognitive biases more generally will more rigorously recognize the various ways in which false beliefs affect both the self and others. This article offers formulas for determining the optimal doxastic orientation, giving special consideration to conflicted self-deception as an alternative to outright self-delusion. A novel taxonomy of self-deception, as it relates to the beliefs held by others, is also presented. While Trivers makes a plausible case for the adaptive value of certain cognitive biases, a more fragmented and nuanced account of the social forces impacting the evolution of self-deception is needed.     

HIV prevention for indigenous people of the Amazon basin.

This study identifies theoretically-based predictors of condom use in a sample of 251 sexually active adults recruited from Sao Gabriel da Cachoeira and six indigneous communities of the Upper Rio Negro region of Amazonas Brazil. The information-motivation-behavioral skills (IMB) model of AIDS-preventive behavior was used to describe the roles of HIV/AIDS knowledge, experiences with and attitudes toward condom use, peer influences, perceived vulnerability, monogamy and behavioral skills. A predictive path analytic model revealed significant predictors of more condom use including male gender, greater sexual HIV knowledge, positive experiences and attitudes about condom use, multiple partners, and greater behavioral skills. Results suggest that attention to behavioral skills for negotiating safer sex and instruction in the correct use of condoms are important elements in reducing high risk behaviors. Increasing the specific knowledge level of indigenous people regarding the complexities of sexual transmission of HIV is crucial and should be addressed. Heightening individuals' understanding of the limited protection of serial monogamy, and the need to conduct gender-specific training for behavior change to reduce transmission of HIV should be an additional goal of Brazilian health professionals. Obstacles to the implementation of the IMB HIV prevention program in Amazonas are noted and an alternative Brazilian HIV/AIDS prevention program is discussed.     

High Incidence Is Not High Exposure: What Proportion of Prevention Trial Participants Are Exposed to HIV?

Objective

Randomized clinical trials of HIV prevention in high-risk populations of women often assume that all participants have similar exposure to HIV. However, a substantial fraction of women enrolled in the trial may have no or low exposure to HIV. Our objective was to estimate the proportion of women exposed to HIV throughout a hypothetical high-risk study population.

Methods

A stochastic individual-based model was developed to simulate the sexual behavior and the risk of HIV acquisition for a cohort of sexually active HIV-uninfected women in high HIV prevalence settings. Key behavior and epidemic assumptions in the model were based on published studies on HIV transmission in South Africa. The prevalence of exposure, defined as the proportion of women who have sex with HIV-infected partner, and HIV incidence were evaluated.

Results

Our model projects that in communities with HIV incidence rate of 1 per 100 person years, only 5-6% of women are exposed to HIV annually while in communities with an HIV incidence of 5 per 100 person years 20-25% of women are exposed to HIV. Approximately 70% of the new infections are acquired from partners with asymptomatic HIV.

Conclusions

Mathematical models suggest that a high proportion of women enrolled in HIV prevention trials may be unexposed to HIV even when incidence rates are high. The relationship between HIV exposure and other risk factors should be carefully analyzed when future clinical trials are planned.     

Effects of public health educational campaigns and the role of sex workers on the spread of HIV/AIDS among heterosexuals

This paper presents a sex-structured model for heterosexual transmission of HIV/AIDS in which the population is divided into three subgroups: susceptibles, infectives and AIDS cases. The subgroups are further divided into two classes, consisting of individuals involved in high-risk sexual activities and individuals involved in low-risk sexual activities. The model considers the movement of individuals from high to low sexual activity groups as a result of public health educational campaigns. Thus, in this case public health educational campaigns are resulting in the split of the population into risk groups. The equilibrium and epidemic threshold, which is known as the basic reproductive number (R0), are obtained, and stability (local and global) of the disease-free equilibrium is investigated. The model is extended to incorporate sex workers, and their role in the spread of HIV/AIDS in settings with heterosexual transmission is explored. Comprehensive analytic and numerical techniques are employed in assessing the possible community benefits of public health educational campaigns in controlling HIV/AIDS. From the study, we conclude that the presence of sex workers enlarges the epidemic threshold R0, thus fuels the epidemic among the heterosexuals, and that public health educational campaigns among the high-risk heterosexual population reduces R0, thus can help slow or eradicate the epidemic.     

QUANTITATIVE BEHAVIORAL STUDY OF BOTTLENOSE DOLPHINS IN SWIM-WITH-DOLPHIN PROGRAMS IN THE UNITED STATES

The behavior of dolphins in four Swim-With-Dolphin programs was compared by type of Swim encounter, defined by the presence ("Controlled") or absence ("Not-Controlled") of explicit trainer regulation of interactions between dolphins and human swimmers. Dolphin-swimmer interactions involving aggressive, submissive, or sexual behavior were designated as "high-risk" in the Swim context; sexual behavior was included as high-risk based on analyses that demonstrated co-occurrence of sexual and agonistic behaviors. High-risk activity comprised a substantial proportion of dolphin-swimmer social activity during Not-Controlled Swims. In contrast, high-risk activity rarely occurred during Controlled Swims, even though agonistic and sexual behaviors were normal components of the same dolphins' free-time social repertoire. These results indicated that direct trainer control of dolphin-swimmer interactions virtually eliminated high-risk activity from the Swim context, and thereby diminished the potential for dolphin distress, swimmer injury, and rejection of dolphins from Swim programs due to swimmer injury. This study illustrates effective use of quantitative behavioral sampling techniques for evaluation of captive management concerns and promotes broader use of these techniques for a better understanding of cetacean behavior.     

Risky behaviour and HIV prevalence among Zambian men

The objective of this paper is to identify demographic, social and behavioural risk factors for HIV infection among men in Zambia. In particular, the role of alcohol, condom use and number of sex partners is highlighted as being significant in the prevalence of HIV. Multivariate logistic regressions were used to analyse the latest cross-sectional population-based demographic health survey for Zambia (2007). The survey included socioeconomic variables and HIV serostatus for consenting men (N = 4434). Risk for HIV was positively related to wealth status. Men who considered themselves to be at high risk of being HIV positive were most likely to be HIV positive. Respondents who, along with their sexual partner, were drunk during the last three times they had sexual intercourse were more likely to be HIV positive (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.60; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00-2.56). Men with more than two sexual life partners and inconsistent condom use had a higher risk for being HIV positive (OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.45-2.46; and OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.10-2.02, respectively). HIV prevention programmes in Zambia should focus even more on these behavioural risk factors.     

Paranoia,self-deception and overconfidence

Self-deception, paranoia, and overconfidence involve misbeliefs about the self, others, and world. They are often considered mistaken. Here we explore whether they might be adaptive, and further, whether they might be explicable in Bayesian terms. We administered a difficult perceptual judgment task with and without social influence (suggestions from a cooperating or competing partner). Crucially, the social influence was uninformative. We found that participants heeded the suggestions most under the most uncertain conditions and that they did so with high confidence, particularly if they were more paranoid. Model fitting to participant behavior revealed that their prior beliefs changed depending on whether the partner was a collaborator or competitor, however, those beliefs did not differ as a function of paranoia. Instead, paranoia, self-deception, and overconfidence were associated with participants’ perceived instability of their own performance. These data are consistent with the idea that self-deception, paranoia, and overconfidence flourish under uncertainty, and have their roots in low self-esteem, rather than excessive social concern. The model suggests that spurious beliefs can have value–self-deception is irrational yet can facilitate optimal behavior. This occurs even at the expense of monetary rewards, perhaps explaining why self-deception and paranoia contribute to costly decisions which can spark financial crashes and devastating wars.     

Screening for Drug and Alcohol Use Disorders and Their Association with HIV-Related Sexual Risk Behaviors among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Peru

Background

Peru''s HIV epidemic is concentrated among men who have sex with men (MSM). The contribution of alcohol use disorders (AUDs) to known high-risk behaviors associated with HIV transmission in this context has not been well characterized.

Methods

Between June and October 2011, 5,148 sexually active MSM were recruited using convenience sampling in five cities to participate in a cross-sectional bio-behavioral survey. Five high-risk sexual criteria previously associated with incident HIV infection in this setting were selected a priori as the dependent outcomes. Screening for AUDs used the validated Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) and AUDS were stratified by severity. Unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios (AOR) were computed to establish the independent correlates of the five dependent outcomes.

Results

The majority (62.8%) of participants met screening criteria for having an AUD, which were independently correlated with each of the following high-risk sexual risk behaviors in the previous 6 months: 1) >5 sexual partners [AOR = 1.76; (1.54–2.02)]; 2) sex with an HIV-infected partner [AOR = 1.29; (1.03–1.62)]; 3) having a sexually transmitted infection [AOR = 1.38; (1.13–1.68)]; 4) being a sex worker [AOR = 1.61; (1.40–1.87)]; and 5) unprotected sex during last encounter [AOR = 1.22; (1.09–1.38)]. Recent drug use was also correlated with having >5 sexual partners [AOR = 1.42 (1.19–1.71)], sex work [AOR = 1.97 (1.63–2.39)] and unprotected sex during last encounter [AOR = 1.31 (1.11–1.54)]. For each dependent variable, the association with AUDs significantly increased with increasing AUD severity.

Conclusions

AUDs are highly prevalent among MSM in Peru and are associated with increased HIV risk-taking behaviors that are associated with HIV transmission. Strategies that target problematic drinking such as medication-assisted therapy, behavioral counseling and structural interventions could potentially reduce risky behaviors and ultimately reduce HIV transmission among MSM in Peru.     

Childhood sexual abuse and HIV risk among crack-using commercial sex workers in San Salvador, El Salvador: a qualitative analysis

This article explores the relationship between childhood sexual abuse (CSA) and later HIV risk. It draws on qualitative, in-depth interviews with 40 women who either used crack or engaged in commercial sex work in the greater metropolitan area of San Salvador, El Salvador, 28 of whom experienced CSA. Although the relationship between CSA and later HIV risk has been clearly demonstrated, the processes that lead women who have experienced CSA to experience HIV risk are unclear. The theoretical model presented here incorporates the psychological effects of CSA, particularly stigmatization, as well as its social consequences and the larger context of poverty in which these women live. The meanings women draw from past abuse experiences and their rationale for choices made help explain the association between CSA and later risk as mediated through sex work and crack addiction. Self-report data gathered in this study indicate that HIV prevalence may be considerably higher in this high-risk population than Salvadoran national rates.     

Women's lives and sex: Implications for AIDS prevention

Preliminary findings from the Women and AIDS program, a research grants program of the International Center for Research on Women in Washington, D.C. that supports 17 studies in developing countries worldwide, provide a glimpse into the complex interaction between women's social and economic status and risk of HIV infection. In many settings, the cultural norms that demand sexual fidelity and docile and acquiescent sexual behavior among women permit — and sometimes even encourage —early sexual experimentation, multiple partnerships, and aggressive and dominating sexual behavior among men. Drawing upon the findings from the program, the paper analyzes how such cultural norms, together with women's social and economic dependency, can limit a woman's ability to negotiate safer sex with her partner; restrict her access to information and knowledge about her body; force her to sometimes barter sex for survival; increase her vulnerability to physical violence in sexual interaction; and compromise her self-esteem. The findings highlight the limitations of the current HIV/AIDS prevention strategy for reducing women's risk of HIV, and underline the urgency for an approach to prevention that is grounded in the realities of women's lives and sexual experiences — an approach that recognizes the relationship between the dynamics of gender relations, sexual behavior, and HIV risk.     

Preparing for the Rollout of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP): A Vignette Survey to Identify Intended Sexual Behaviors among Women in Kenya and South Africa if Using PrEP

Introduction

Several clinical trials have demonstrated the efficacy of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in reducing HIV risk. One concern with introducing PrEP is whether users will engage in riskier sexual behaviors.

Methods

We assessed the effect that PrEP may have on sexual risk behaviors by administering a survey to 799 women in Bondo, Kenya, and Pretoria, South Africa. Participants were asked about their sexual behavior intentions twice — once as if they were taking PrEP and once as if they were not taking PrEP — within four risk situations (vignettes). They responded using a 5-point ordinal scale. We used a series of linear mixed effects models with an unstructured residual covariance matrix to estimate the between- and within-subject differences in the mean likelihood of engaging in risky sexual behavior across the PrEP and non-PrEP contexts. We also calculated the total percentage of participants who reported a greater likelihood of engaging in risky sexual behavior if taking PrEP than if not taking PrEP, by vignette.

Results

We found statistically significant differences in the mean likelihood of engaging in risky sexual behavior with the between-subject comparison (-0.17, p < 0.01) and with the within-subject comparison (-0.31, p < 0.001). Depending on the vignette, 27% to 40% of participants reported a greater likelihood of engaging in risky sexual behavior if taking PrEP than if not taking PrEP.

Conclusions

Our findings indicate that modest increases in risky sexual behavior could occur with PrEP. Although responses from the majority of participants suggest they would not be more likely to engage in risky sexual behavior if they took PrEP, a substantial proportion might. Programs rolling out PrEP should be prepared to assist similar women in making informed choices about reducing their risk of HIV and about their sexual health beyond HIV prevention.     

Prevalence of Consensual Male–Male Sex and Sexual Violence,and Associations with HIV in South Africa: A Population-Based Cross-Sectional Study

Background

In sub-Saharan Africa the population prevalence of men who have sex with men (MSM) is unknown, as is the population prevalence of male-on-male sexual violence, and whether male-on-male sexual violence may relate to HIV risk. This paper describes lifetime prevalence of consensual male–male sexual behavior and male-on-male sexual violence (victimization and perpetration) in two South African provinces, socio-demographic factors associated with these experiences, and associations with HIV serostatus.

Methods and Findings

In a cross-sectional study conducted in 2008, men aged 18–49 y from randomly selected households in the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal provinces provided anonymous survey data and dried blood spots for HIV serostatus assessment. Interviews were completed in 1,737 of 2,298 (75.6%) of enumerated and eligible households. From these households, 1,705 men (97.1%) provided data on lifetime history of same-sex experiences, and 1,220 (70.2%) also provided dried blood spots for HIV testing. 5.4% (n = 92) of participants reported a lifetime history of any consensual sexual activity with another man; 9.6% (n = 164) reported any sexual victimization by a man, and 3.0% (n = 51) reported perpetrating sexual violence against another man. 85.0% (n = 79) of men with a history of consensual sex with men reported having a current female partner, and 27.7% (n = 26) reported having a current male partner. Of the latter, 80.6% (n = 21/26) also reported having a female partner. Men reporting a history of consensual male–male sexual behavior are more likely to have been a victim of male-on-male sexual violence (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 7.24; 95% CI 4.26–12.3), and to have perpetrated sexual violence against another man (aOR = 3.10; 95% CI 1.22–7.90). Men reporting consensual oral/anal sex with a man were more likely to be HIV+ than men with no such history (aOR = 3.11; 95% CI 1.24–7.80). Men who had raped a man were more likely to be HIV+ than non-perpetrators (aOR = 3.58; 95% CI 1.17–10.9).

Conclusions

In this sample, one in 20 men (5.4%) reported lifetime consensual sexual contact with a man, while about one in ten (9.6%) reported experience of male-on-male sexual violence victimization. Men who reported having had sex with men were more likely to be HIV+, as were men who reported perpetrating sexual violence towards other men. Whilst there was no direct measure of male–female concurrency (having overlapping sexual relationships with men and women), the data suggest that this may have been common. These findings suggest that HIV prevention messages regarding male–male sex in South Africa should be mainstreamed with prevention messages for the general population, and sexual health interventions and HIV prevention interventions for South African men should explicitly address male-on-male sexual violence. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

The effect of structural behavior change on the spread of HIV in a one-sex population.

Within a preferred mixing type of model for the spread of HIV in a one-sex population, the effects of structural behavior change, that is movements of individuals from one activity class to another, with accompanying changes of contact pattern are investigated. It is concluded that such behavior change makes it more difficult for an epidemic to arise if the contact pattern is of the restricted type, whereas the effect is indeterminate in the proportional mixing case. Some of the problems in analyzing sexual activity data from a population within which this behavior change mechanism is at work are also commented upon.