Cryptococcal Meningitis Treatment Strategies in Resource-Limited Settings: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Background

Cryptococcal meningitis (CM) is the most common form of meningitis in Africa. World Health Organization guidelines recommend 14-d amphotericin-based induction therapy; however, this is impractical for many resource-limited settings due to cost and intensive monitoring needs. A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed to guide stakeholders with respect to optimal CM treatment within resource limitations.

Methods and Findings:

We conducted a decision analysis to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of six CM induction regimens: fluconazole (800–1,200 mg/d) monotherapy, fluconazole + flucytosine (5FC), short-course amphotericin (7-d) + fluconazole, 14-d of amphotericin alone, amphotericin + fluconazole, and amphotericin + 5FC. We computed actual 2012 healthcare costs in Uganda for medications, supplies, and personnel, and average laboratory costs for three African countries. A systematic review of cryptococcal treatment trials in resource-limited areas summarized 10-wk survival outcomes. We modeled one-year survival based on South African, Ugandan, and Thai CM outcome data, and survival beyond one-year on Ugandan and Thai data. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were determined and used to calculate the cost-effectiveness ratio and ICER. The cost of hospital care ranged from $154 for fluconazole monotherapy to $467 for 14 d of amphotericin + 5FC. Based on 18 studies investigating outcomes for HIV-infected individuals with CM in resource-limited settings, the estimated mean one-year survival was lowest for fluconazole monotherapy, at 40%. The cost-effectiveness ratio ranged from $20 to $44 per QALY. Overall, amphotericin-based regimens had higher costs but better survival. Short-course amphotericin (1 mg/kg/d for 7 d) with fluconazole (1,200 mg/d for14 d) had the best one-year survival (66%) and the most favorable cost-effectiveness ratio, at $20.24/QALY, with an ICER of $15.11 per additional QALY over fluconazole monotherapy. The main limitation of this study is the pooled nature of a systematic review, with a paucity of outcome data with direct comparisons between regimens.

Conclusions

Short-course (7-d) amphotericin induction therapy coupled with high-dose (1,200 mg/d) fluconazole is “very cost effective” per World Health Organization criteria and may be a worthy investment for policy-makers seeking cost-effective clinical outcomes. More head-to-head clinical trials are needed on treatments for this neglected tropical disease. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary.     

Neurocognitive Function in HIV Infected Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy

Objective

To describe factors associated with neurocognitive (NC) function in HIV-positive patients on stable combination antiretroviral therapy.

Design

We undertook a cross-sectional analysis assessing NC data obtained at baseline in patients entering the Protease-Inhibitor-Monotherapy-Versus-Ongoing-Triple therapy (PIVOT) trial.

Main outcome measure

NC testing comprised of 5 domains. Raw results were z-transformed using standard and demographically adjusted normative datasets (ND). Global z-scores (NPZ-5) were derived from averaging the 5 domains and percentage of subjects with test scores >1 standard deviation (SD) below population means in at least two domains (abnormal Frascati score) calculated. Patient characteristics associated with NC results were assessed using multivariable linear regression.

Results

Of the 587 patients in PIVOT, 557 had full NC results and were included. 77% were male, 68% Caucasian and 28% of Black ethnicity. Mean (SD) baseline and nadir CD4+ lymphocyte counts were 553(217) and 177(117) cells/µL, respectively, and HIV RNA was <50 copies/mL in all. Median (IQR) NPZ-5 score was −0.5 (−1.2/−0) overall, and −0.3 (−0.7/0.1) and −1.4 (−2/−0.8) in subjects of Caucasian and Black ethnicity, respectively. Abnormal Frascati scores using the standard-ND were observed in 51%, 38%, and 81%, respectively, of subjects overall, Caucasian and Black ethnicity (p<0.001), but in 62% and 69% of Caucasian and Black subjects using demographically adjusted-ND (p = 0.20). In the multivariate analysis, only Black ethnicity was associated with poorer NPZ-5 scores (P<0.001).

Conclusions

In this large group of HIV-infected subjects with viral load suppression, ethnicity but not HIV-disease factors is closely associated with NC results. The prevalence of abnormal results is highly dependent on control datasets utilised.

Trial registry

ClinicalTrials.gov, {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT01230580","term_id":"NCT01230580"}}NCT01230580     

Cost-Effectiveness of Tenofovir Instead of Zidovudine for Use in First-Line Antiretroviral Therapy in Settings without Virological Monitoring

Background

The most recent World Health Organization (WHO) antiretroviral treatment guidelines recommend the inclusion of zidovudine (ZDV) or tenofovir (TDF) in first-line therapy. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis with emphasis on emerging patterns of drug resistance upon treatment failure and their impact on second-line therapy.

Methods

We used a stochastic simulation of a generalized HIV-1 epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa to compare two strategies for first-line combination antiretroviral treatment including lamivudine, nevirapine and either ZDV or TDF. Model input parameters were derived from literature and, for the simulation of resistance pathways, estimated from drug resistance data obtained after first-line treatment failure in settings without virological monitoring. Treatment failure and cost effectiveness were determined based on WHO definitions. Two scenarios with optimistic (no emergence; base) and pessimistic (extensive emergence) assumptions regarding occurrence of multidrug resistance patterns were tested.

Results

In the base scenario, cumulative proportions of treatment failure according to WHO criteria were higher among first-line ZDV users (median after six years 36% [95% simulation interval 32%; 39%]) compared with first-line TDF users (31% [29%; 33%]). Consequently, a higher proportion initiated second-line therapy (including lamivudine, boosted protease inhibitors and either ZDV or TDF) in the first-line ZDV user group 34% [31%; 37%] relative to first-line TDF users (30% [27%; 32%]). At the time of second-line initiation, a higher proportion (16%) of first-line ZDV users harboured TDF-resistant HIV compared with ZDV-resistant viruses among first-line TDF users (0% and 6% in base and pessimistic scenarios, respectively). In the base scenario, the incremental cost effectiveness ratio with respect to quality adjusted life years (QALY) was US$83 when TDF instead of ZDV was used in first-line therapy (pessimistic scenario: US$ 315), which was below the WHO threshold for high cost effectiveness (US$ 2154).

Conclusions

Using TDF instead of ZDV in first-line treatment in resource-limited settings is very cost-effective and likely to better preserve future treatment options in absence of virological monitoring.     

Cost-Effectiveness of HIV Drug Resistance Testing to Inform Switching to Second Line Antiretroviral Therapy in Low Income Settings

Background

To guide future need for cheap resistance tests for use in low income settings, we assessed cost-effectiveness of drug resistance testing as part of monitoring of people on first line ART - with switching from first to second line ART being conditional on NNRTI drug resistance mutations being identified.

Methods

An individual level simulation model of HIV transmission, progression and the effect of ART which accounts for adherence and resistance development was used to compare outcomes of various potential monitoring strategies in a typical low income setting in sub-Saharan Africa. Underlying monitoring strategies considered were based on clinical disease, CD4 count or viral load. Within each we considered a strategy in which no further measures are performed, one with a viral load measure to confirm failure, and one with both a viral load measure and a resistance test. Predicted outcomes were assessed over 2015–2025 in terms of viral suppression, first line failure, switching to second line regimen, death, HIV incidence, disability-adjusted-life-years averted and costs. Potential future low costs of resistance tests ($30) were used.

Results

The most effective strategy, in terms of DALYs averted, was one using viral load monitoring without confirmation. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for this strategy was $2113 (the same as that for viral load monitoring with confirmation). ART monitoring strategies which involved resistance testing did not emerge as being more effective or cost effective than strategies not using it. The slightly reduced ART costs resulting from use of resistance testing, due to less use of second line regimens, was of similar magnitude to the costs of resistance tests.

Conclusion

Use of resistance testing at the time of first line failure as part of the decision whether to switch to second line therapy was not cost-effective, even though the test was assumed to be very inexpensive.     

Mortality of Patients Lost to Follow-Up in Antiretroviral Treatment Programmes in Resource-Limited Settings: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

The retention of patients in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes is an important issue in resource-limited settings. Loss to follow up can be substantial, but it is unclear what the outcomes are in patients who are lost to programmes.

Methods and Findings

We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), Indian Medlars Centre (IndMed) and African Index Medicus (AIM) databases and the abstracts of three conferences for studies that traced patients lost to follow up to ascertain their vital status. Main outcomes were the proportion of patients traced, the proportion found to be alive and the proportion that had died. Where available, we also examined the reasons why some patients could not be traced, why patients found to be alive did not return to the clinic, and the causes of death. We combined mortality data from several studies using random-effects meta-analysis. Seventeen studies were eligible. All were from sub-Saharan Africa, except one study from India, and none were conducted in children. A total of 6420 patients (range 44 to 1343 patients) were included. Patients were traced using telephone calls, home visits and through social networks. Overall the vital status of 4021 patients could be ascertained (63%, range across studies: 45% to 86%); 1602 patients had died. The combined mortality was 40% (95% confidence interval 33%–48%), with substantial heterogeneity between studies (P<0.0001). Mortality in African programmes ranged from 12% to 87% of patients lost to follow-up. Mortality was inversely associated with the rate of loss to follow up in the programme: it declined from around 60% to 20% as the percentage of patients lost to the programme increased from 5% to 50%. Among patients not found, telephone numbers and addresses were frequently incorrect or missing. Common reasons for not returning to the clinic were transfer to another programme, financial problems and improving or deteriorating health. Causes of death were available for 47 deaths: 29 (62%) died of an AIDS defining illness.

Conclusions

In ART programmes in resource-limited settings a substantial minority of adults lost to follow up cannot be traced, and among those traced 20% to 60% had died. Our findings have implications both for patient care and the monitoring and evaluation of programmes.     

Change in Vitamin D Levels Occurs Early after Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation and Depends on Treatment Regimen in Resource-Limited Settings

Study Background

Vitamin D has wide-ranging effects on the immune system, and studies suggest that low serum vitamin D levels are associated with worse clinical outcomes in HIV. Recent studies have identified an interaction between antiretrovirals used to treat HIV and reduced serum vitamin D levels, but these studies have been done in North American and European populations.

Methods

Using a prospective cohort study design nested in a multinational clinical trial, we examined the effect of three combination antiretroviral (cART) regimens on serum vitamin D levels in 270 cART-naïve, HIV-infected adults in nine diverse countries, (Brazil, Haiti, Peru, Thailand, India, Malawi, South Africa, Zimbabwe and the United States). We evaluated the change between baseline serum vitamin D levels and vitamin D levels 24 and 48 weeks after cART initiation.

Results

Serum vitamin D levels decreased significantly from baseline to 24 weeks among those randomized to efavirenz/lamivudine/zidovudine (mean change: −7.94 [95% Confidence Interval (CI) −10.42, −5.54] ng/ml) and efavirenz/emtricitabine/tenofovir-DF (mean change: −6.66 [95% CI −9.40, −3.92] ng/ml) when compared to those randomized to atazanavir/emtricitabine/didanosine-EC (mean change: −2.29 [95% CI –4.83, 0.25] ng/ml). Vitamin D levels did not change significantly between week 24 and 48. Other factors that significantly affected serum vitamin D change included country (p<0.001), season (p<0.001) and baseline vitamin D level (p<0.001).

Conclusion

Efavirenz-containing cART regimens adversely affected vitamin D levels in patients from economically, geographically and racially diverse resource-limited settings. This effect was most pronounced early after cART initiation. Research is needed to define the role of Vitamin D supplementation in HIV care.     

The Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy in a Cohort of HIV Infected Patients Going in and out of the San Francisco County Jail

Background

Jails are an important venue of HIV care and a place for identification, treatment and referral for care. HIV infected inmates in the San Francisco County jail are offered antiretroviral treatment (ART), which many take only while in jail. We evaluated the effect of ART administration in a cohort of jail inmates going in and out of jail over a nine year period.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In this retrospective study, we examined inmates with HIV going in and out of jail. Inmates were categorized by patterns of ART use: continuous ART - ART both in and out of jail, intermittent ART - ART only in jail; never on ART - eligible by national guidelines, but refused ART. CD4 and HIV viral load (VL) were compared over time in these groups. Over a 9 year period, 512 inmates were studied: 388 (76%) on intermittent ART, 79 (15%) on continuous ART and 45(9%) never-on ART. In a linear mixed model analysis, inmates on intermittent ART were 1.43; 95%CI (1.03, 1.99) times and those never on ART were 2.89; 95%CI (1.71, 4.87) times more likely to have higher VL than inmates on continuous ART. Furthermore, Inmates on intermittent ART and never-on ART lost 1.60; 95%CI (1.06, 2.13) and 1.97; 95%CI (0.96, 3.00) more CD4 cells per month, respectively, compared to continuously treated inmates. The continuous ART inmates gained 0.67CD4 cells/month.

Conclusions/Significance

Continuous ART therapy in jail inmate''s benefits CD4 cell counts and control of VL especially compared to those who never took ART. Although jail inmates on intermittent ART were more likely to lose CD4 cells and experience higher VL over time than those on continuous ART, CD4 cell loss was slower in these inmates as compared to inmates never on ART. Further studies are needed to evaluate whether or not intermittent ART provides some benefit in outcome if continuous ART is not possible or likely.     

Cost-Effectiveness of HIV Testing Referral Strategies among Tuberculosis Patients in India

Background

Indian guidelines recommend routine referral for HIV testing of all tuberculosis (TB) patients in the nine states with the highest HIV prevalence, and selective referral for testing elsewhere. We assessed the clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of alternative HIV testing referral strategies among TB patients in India.

Methods and Findings

We utilized a computer model of HIV and TB disease to project outcomes for patients with active TB in India. We compared life expectancy, cost, and cost-effectiveness for three HIV testing referral strategies: 1) selective referral for HIV testing of those with increased HIV risk, 2) routine referral of patients in the nine highest HIV prevalence states with selective referral elsewhere (current standard), and 3) routine referral of all patients for HIV testing. TB-related data were from the World Health Organization. HIV prevalence among TB patients was 9.0% in the highest prevalence states, 2.9% in the other states, and 4.9% overall. The selective referral strategy, beginning from age 33.50 years, had a projected discounted life expectancy of 16.88 years and a mean lifetime HIV/TB treatment cost of US$100. The current standard increased mean life expectancy to 16.90 years with additional per-person cost of US$10; the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was US$650/year of life saved (YLS) compared to selective referral. Routine referral of all patients for HIV testing increased life expectancy to 16.91 years, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$730/YLS compared to the current standard. For HIV-infected patients cured of TB, receiving antiretroviral therapy increased survival from 4.71 to 13.87 years. Results were most sensitive to the HIV prevalence and the cost of second-line antiretroviral therapy.

Conclusions

Referral of all patients with active TB in India for HIV testing will be both effective and cost-effective. While effective implementation of this strategy would require investment, routine, voluntary HIV testing of TB patients in India should be recommended.     

HIV/HCV共感染者抗逆转录病毒治疗后免疫恢复情况

由于具有相同的传播途径,人类免疫缺陷病毒(Human immunodeficiency virus,HIV)和丙型肝炎病毒(Hepatitis C virus,HCV)共感染非常普遍,但是关于合并感染的程度,两种病毒之间的相互关系,在艾滋病抗逆转录病毒治疗(Antiretroviral therapy,ART)前后,HCV合并感染对HIV患者免疫细胞恢复的影响仍不明确。为了通过分析CD4⁺和CD8⁺T淋巴细胞数的变化,以了解辽宁省HIV/HCV共感染者ART后免疫恢复的情况,本研究从辽宁省艾滋病抗病毒治疗数据库中筛选符合要求的HIV感染者和HIV/HCV共感染者,收集感染者基本人口学资料及HCV抗体检测结果、HIV/HCV共感染途径等资料。采用t检验或卡方检验进行组间比较,采用Kaplan-Meier乘积极限法绘制生存分析函数图。结果显示,本研究共纳入HIV感染者12742人,HIV/HCV共感染者340人。HIV感染者和HIV/HCV共感染者的不同人口学特征均差异显著(P<0.001)。HIV感染和HIV/HCV共感染者ART治疗后CD4⁺细胞数和CD4⁺/CD8⁺比值显著升高(P<0.05),CD8⁺细胞数比ART前显著下降(P<0.05)。HIV/HCV共感染者随着ART时长,CD4⁺T淋巴细胞数恢复情况始终显著低于HIV感染者(P<0.05)。生存分析曲线表明,HCV/HIV共感染者从艾滋病诊断开始随着ART的治疗CD4⁺细胞恢复情况显著低于HIV感染者,Log-Rank检验统计量为4.483(P=0.034)。本研究揭示,HCV感染对ART患者CD4⁺和CD8⁺T淋巴细胞的恢复有影响。ART后HIV/HCV共感染者中CD4⁺T淋巴细胞计数的改善低于HIV单一感染者,并且单一感染患者对ART的反应比合并感染患者更好。因此,建议在启动ART之前,对每个感染HIV的患者进行HCV抗体筛查。     

The Clinical and Economic Impact of Point-of-Care CD4 Testing in Mozambique and Other Resource-Limited Settings: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Background

Point-of-care CD4 tests at HIV diagnosis could improve linkage to care in resource-limited settings. Our objective is to evaluate the clinical and economic impact of point-of-care CD4 tests compared to laboratory-based tests in Mozambique.

Methods and Findings

We use a validated model of HIV testing, linkage, and treatment (CEPAC-International) to examine two strategies of immunological staging in Mozambique: (1) laboratory-based CD4 testing (LAB-CD4) and (2) point-of-care CD4 testing (POC-CD4). Model outcomes include 5-y survival, life expectancy, lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Input parameters include linkage to care (LAB-CD4, 34%; POC-CD4, 61%), probability of correctly detecting antiretroviral therapy (ART) eligibility (sensitivity: LAB-CD4, 100%; POC-CD4, 90%) or ART ineligibility (specificity: LAB-CD4, 100%; POC-CD4, 85%), and test cost (LAB-CD4, US$10; POC-CD4, US$24). In sensitivity analyses, we vary POC-CD4-specific parameters, as well as cohort and setting parameters to reflect a range of scenarios in sub-Saharan Africa. We consider ICERs less than three times the per capita gross domestic product in Mozambique (US$570) to be cost-effective, and ICERs less than one times the per capita gross domestic product in Mozambique to be very cost-effective. Projected 5-y survival in HIV-infected persons with LAB-CD4 is 60.9% (95% CI, 60.9%–61.0%), increasing to 65.0% (95% CI, 64.9%–65.1%) with POC-CD4. Discounted life expectancy and per person lifetime costs with LAB-CD4 are 9.6 y (95% CI, 9.6–9.6 y) and US$2,440 (95% CI, US$2,440–US$2,450) and increase with POC-CD4 to 10.3 y (95% CI, 10.3–10.3 y) and US$2,800 (95% CI, US$2,790–US$2,800); the ICER of POC-CD4 compared to LAB-CD4 is US$500/year of life saved (YLS) (95% CI, US$480–US$520/YLS). POC-CD4 improves clinical outcomes and remains near the very cost-effective threshold in sensitivity analyses, even if point-of-care CD4 tests have lower sensitivity/specificity and higher cost than published values. In other resource-limited settings with fewer opportunities to access care, POC-CD4 has a greater impact on clinical outcomes and remains cost-effective compared to LAB-CD4. Limitations of the analysis include the uncertainty around input parameters, which is examined in sensitivity analyses. The potential added benefits due to decreased transmission are excluded; their inclusion would likely further increase the value of POC-CD4 compared to LAB-CD4.

Conclusions

POC-CD4 at the time of HIV diagnosis could improve survival and be cost-effective compared to LAB-CD4 in Mozambique, if it improves linkage to care. POC-CD4 could have the greatest impact on mortality in settings where resources for HIV testing and linkage are most limited. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Poor Clinical Outcomes for HIV Infected Children on Antiretroviral Therapy in Rural Mozambique: Need for Program Quality Improvement and Community Engagement

Introduction

Residents of Zambézia Province, Mozambique live from rural subsistence farming and fishing. The 2009 provincial HIV prevalence for adults 15–49 years was 12.6%, higher among women (15.3%) than men (8.9%). We reviewed clinical data to assess outcomes for HIV-infected children on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in a highly resource-limited setting.

Methods

We studied rates of 2-year mortality and loss to follow-up (LTFU) for children <15 years of age initiating cART between June 2006–July 2011 in 10 rural districts. National guidelines define LTFU as >60 days following last-scheduled medication pickup. Kaplan-Meier estimates to compute mortality assumed non-informative censoring. Cumulative LTFU incidence calculations treated death as a competing risk.

Results

Of 753 children, 29.0% (95% CI: 24.5, 33.2) were confirmed dead by 2 years and 39.0% (95% CI: 34.8, 42.9) were LTFU with unknown clinical outcomes. The cohort mortality rate was 8.4% (95% CI: 6.3, 10.4) after 90 days on cART and 19.2% (95% CI: 16.0, 22.3) after 365 days. Higher hemoglobin at cART initiation was associated with being alive and on cART at 2 years (alive: 9.3 g/dL vs. dead or LTFU: 8.3–8.4 g/dL, p<0.01). Cotrimoxazole use within 90 days of ART initiation was associated with improved 2-year outcomes Treatment was initiated late (WHO stage III/IV) among 48% of the children with WHO stage recorded in their records. Marked heterogeneity in outcomes by district was noted (p<0.001).

Conclusions

We found poor clinical and programmatic outcomes among children taking cART in rural Mozambique. Expanded testing, early infant diagnosis, counseling/support services, case finding, and outreach are insufficiently implemented. Our quality improvement efforts seek to better link pregnancy and HIV services, expand coverage and timeliness of infant diagnosis and treatment, and increase follow-up and adherence.     

Persistent Inflammation and Endothelial Activation in HIV-1 Infected Patients after 12 Years of Antiretroviral Therapy

Objective

The study investigated markers of inflammation and endothelial activation in HIV infected patients after 12 years of successful combination antiretroviral treatment (cART).

Methods

Inflammation and endothelial activation were assessed by measuring levels of immunoglobulins, β2-microglobulin, interleukin (IL) 8, tumor necrosis factor α (TNFα), vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (sVCAM-1), intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1), sE-Selectin, and sP-Selectin.

Results

HIV infected patients had higher levels of β2-microglobulin, IL-8, TNFα, and sICAM-1 than uninfected controls, and HIV infected patients lacked correlation between platelet counts and sP-Selectin levels found in uninfected controls.

Conclusion

Discrete signs of systemic and vascular inflammation persist even after very long term cART.     

Long-Term Survival in HIV Positive Patients with up to 15 Years of Antiretroviral Therapy

Background

Life expectancy has increased for newly diagnosed HIV patients since the inception of combination antiretroviral treatment (cART), but there remains a need to better understand the characteristics of long-term survival in HIV-positive patients. We examined long-term survival in HIV-positive patients receiving cART in the Australian HIV Observational Database (AHOD), to describe changes in mortality compared to the general population and to develop longer-term survival models.

Methods

Data were examined from 2,675 HIV-positive participants in AHOD who started cART. Standardised mortality ratios (SMR) were calculated by age, sex and calendar year across prognostic characteristics using Australian Bureau of Statistics national data as reference. SMRs were examined by years of duration of cART by CD4 and similarly by viral load. Survival was analysed using Cox-proportional hazards and parametric survival models.

Results

The overall SMR for all-cause mortality was 3.5 (95% CI: 3.0–4.0). SMRs by CD4 count were 8.6 (95% CI: 7.2–10.2) for CD4<350 cells/µl; 2.1 (95% CI: 1.5–2.9) for CD4 = 350–499 cells/µl; and 1.5 (95% CI: 1.1–2.0) for CD4≥500 cells/µl. SMRs for patients with CD4 counts <350 cells/µL were much higher than for patients with higher CD4 counts across all durations of cART. SMRs for patients with viral loads greater than 400 copies/ml were much higher across all durations of cART. Multivariate models demonstrated improved survival associated with increased recent CD4, reduced recent viral load, younger patients, absence of HBVsAg-positive ever, year of HIV diagnosis and incidence of ADI. Parametric models showed a fairly constant mortality risk by year of cART up to 15 years of treatment.

Conclusion

Observed mortality remained fairly constant by duration of cART and was modelled accurately by accepted prognostic factors. These rates did not vary much by duration of treatment. Changes in mortality with age were similar to those in the Australian general population.