Habitat quality of source patches and connectivity in fragmented landscapes

Because spatial connectivity is critical to dispersal success and persistence of species in highly fragmented landscapes, the way that we envision and measure connectivity is consequential for biodiversity conservation. Connectivity metrics used for predictive modeling of spatial turnover and patch occupancy for metapopulations, such as with Incidence Function Models (IFM), incorporate distances to and sizes of possible source populations. Here, our focus is on whether habitat quality of source patches also is considered in these connectivity metrics. We propose that effective areas (weighted by habitat quality) of source patches should be better surrogates for population size and dispersal potential compared to unadjusted patch areas. Our review of a representative sample of the literature revealed that only 12.5% of studies incorporated habitat quality of source patches into IFM-type connectivity metrics. Quality of source patches generally was not taken into account in studies even if habitat quality of focal patches was included in analyses. We provide an empirical example for a metapopulation of a rare wetland species, the round-tailed muskrat (Neofiber alleni), demonstrating that a connectivity metric based on effective areas of source patches better predicts patch colonization and occupancy than a metric that used simple patch areas. The ongoing integration of landscape ecology and metapopulation dynamics could be hastened by incorporating habitat quality of source patches into spatial connectivity metrics applied to species conservation in fragmented landscapes.     

生态保护区外斑块对景观连接度的影响评价

快速的城市化过程带来的生境斑块破碎化及损失会影响物种迁移、捕食等生态活动,对生物多样性构成威胁。然而,现有生态保护区可能无法覆盖其内生物的必要活动范围。生态保护区外的生境斑块对于维持生态过程也具有重要作用,因此识别生态保护区外的关键斑块并加以保护非常重要。以北京市延庆区为研究区,划分两种生境斑块,即核心生境斑块和潜在生境斑块,并基于图论构建生境网络。考虑地表覆盖类型、坡度、人类活动等因素构建生境阻力面。结合未来土地利用类型变化的模拟,研究城市化过程对区域生境网络和景观连接度的影响,选用CLUE-S模型模拟土地利用类型变化的格局。结合生境斑块特征和未来城市土地利用变化情况设计了3种未来生境变化情景。利用连接概率指数(PC)和网络连接度变化率(dI)评价不同生境变化情景下生态保护区外潜在生境斑块的景观连接度重要性,判断保护优先顺序,并分析景观格局变化对不同迁移能力物种的影响。结果表明：生态保护区外的全部潜在生境斑块对维持生境整体景观连接度有最大2.15%的影响,单个潜在生境斑块对维持景观连接度有最大0.28%的影响。此外,景观格局及其变化对不同迁移能力物种的影响差异显著,因此需针对保护物种和城市生境特征设计保护方案,研究区需要优先保护大中型斑块和位于关键位置的小型斑块。为了满足对生物多样性保护的需求,建议在区分生境斑块保护优先顺序时考虑生境斑块对景观连接度的贡献和城市化扩展过程的压力。研究为城市生物多样性保护和生境管理提供了方法参考。     

基于MSPA与最小路径方法的巴中西部新城生态网络构建

目前快速城市化导致了生境斑块的日益破碎化,景观之间的连通性不断降低。构建生态网络可以连接破碎的生境斑块,增加绿地景观的连通性,对生物多样性保护具有重要意义。以高度景观破碎化的四川省巴中西部新城为研究区,采用形态学空间格局分析(MSPA)方法,提取出对研究区生态网络构建具有重要生态意义的核心区和桥接区两类景观要素,并选用整体连通性(IIC)、可能连通性(PC)和斑块重要性(d I)等景观指数,分别对核心区和桥接区进行景观连接度评价,遴选出对维持景观连通性贡献最大的10个核心区生境斑块作为生态网络的源地,并根据斑块对维持景观连通的重要性程度将其他核心区和桥接区进行类型划分,以此作为景观阻力的赋值依据,融入消费面模型中,最后采用最小路径方法构建了研究区潜在的生态网络,并基于重力模型对重要生态廊道进行了识别与提取,在此基础上有针对性地提出了生态网络优化的对策。研究结果表明,MSPA方法能够科学的辨识出研究区内对生态保护具有重要意义的结构性要素,例如作为物种栖息地的核心区和物种迁移通道的桥接区,这些要素是生态网络的重要组成部分;景观连通性的计算,明确了研究区景观要素的保护重点,为最小路径方法中的景观阻力赋值提供了重要的参考信息;基于MSPA与最小路径方法的生态网络分析框架综合了现有景观结构性要素识别、连通性分析以及物种潜在迁移路径分析等方法,将景观中潜在的生态源地和结构性廊道的连通性作为构建生态网络的重要基础和主要依据,从而使得生态网络的构建更科学。研究结果可为高度破碎化地区生态网络的构建提供重要的参考与依据,对其他地区生态网络的构建也具有一定的借鉴意义。     

Landscape connectivity dynamics based on network analysis in the Xishuangbanna Nature Reserve,China

Lack of landscape connectivity and habitat loss is major threats to biodiversity and ecosystem integrity in nature reserves aimed at conservation. In this study, we used structural pattern and functional connectivity metrics to analyze the spatial patterns and landscape connectivity of habitat patches for the Shangyong sub-reserve of the Xishuangbanna Nature Reserve from 1970, 1990, and 2000. On the basis of vegetation and land cover data, we applied the equivalent connected area ECA(PC) indicator to analyze the changes in forest connectivity. Four distance thresholds (2, 4, 8, 12 km) were considered to compare the patch importance of connectivity by dECA values. The results showed the declining trends of landscape connectivity measured by ECA(PC) index from 1970 to 2000. The importance of connectivity in each forest patch varied with the increment of dispersal distances at the patch level, and some important habitat patches, which exhibit a potential to enhance landscape connectivity, should be given more attention. The least-cost pathways based on network structure were displayed under four dispersal distances in three periods. The results showed that the number of paths among the fragments of forest patches exhibited radical increases for larger dispersal distances. Further correlation analyses of AWF, ECA (IIC), and ECA (PC) showed the weakest and least-frequent correlations with the structural pattern indices, while H presented more significant correlations with the PD fragmentation metric. Furthermore, Kendall's rank correlations between the forest patch area and functional connectivity indicators showed that dECA (PC) and dAWF indicators should provided the area-based prioritization of habitat patches. Moreover, the low-rank correlations showed that dF and dLCP can be considered as effective and appropriate indicators for the evaluation of habitat features and network patterns.     

Identifying multiscale habitat factors influencing koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) occurrence and management in Ballarat, Victoria, Australia

Summary   Modelling for the conservation of koala ( Phascolarctos cinereus ) populations has primarily focused on natural habitat variables (e.g. tree species, soil types and soil moisture). Until recently, limited consideration has been given to modelling the effects of the landscape context (e.g. habitat area, habitat configuration and roads). Yet, the combined influence of natural habitats and anthropogenic impacts at multiple spatial scales are likely to be important determinants of where koala populations occur and remain viable in human-modified landscapes. The study tested the importance of multiscale habitat variables on koala occurrence in Ballarat, Victoria, Australia. The models focused at three spatial scales: site ( <  1 ha), patch (1–100 ha), and landscape (100–1000 s ha). Logistic regression and hierarchical partitioning analyses were used to rank alternative models and key explanatory variables.
The results showed that an increased likelihood of koala presence in fragmented landscapes in the urban–forest interface (as opposed to larger blocks of forest habitat) can best be explained by the positive effects of soil fertility and the presence of preferred koala tree species in these fragmented areas. If koalas are to be effectively conserved in Ballarat, it is critical to (i) protect remaining core areas of high-quality habitat, including regenerating areas; (ii) protect scattered habitat patches which provide connectivity; and (iii) develop and implement habitat restoration programmes to improve habitat connectivity and enhance opportunities for safe koala movement between habitat patches intersected by main roads.     

基于景观连接度的土地整理生态效应评价

近年来,土地整理区的生物多样性保护和景观功能的维持受到广泛关注。本文选取贵州省道真县洛龙镇国家重点土地整理项目区,运用基于结构与功能相结合景观连接度模型(综合连接度(IIC)和连接度概率(PC)),计算了500、1000、2000、3000和4000m种群迁移扩散距离阈值情景下,土地整理前后各生境斑块对景观连接度的重要程度,识别重要斑块变化范围,从功能角度评价整理后的生态效应。结果表明:连接度指数能较好地识别土地整理前后各生境斑块的重要类别及其改变;其中,巨型斑块所占面积最大,分别占总面积的57.0%和57.2%;小型斑块数目整理前后分别占斑块总数的48.0%和48.9%;空间上,斑块的重要性分布也产生一定的变化。整理后生境斑块的连通性较整理前也有所下降,IIC和PC平均值分别为0.434和0.680,且随着距离阈值的增大,连接度逐渐增大。巨型斑块对生境斑块景观连通性的相对重要值最大,中型斑块和大型斑块次之,小型斑块最低。研究表明,土地整理过程中,大面积生境斑块和"踏脚石"斑块对维持土地整理生态效益具有重要作用。     

Multispecies assessment of core areas and connectivity of desert carnivores in central Iran

Aim

Central Iran is a priority area for biodiversity conservation, which is threatened by encroachment on core habitats and fragmentation by roads. The goal of this study was to identify core areas and connectivity corridors for a set of desert carnivores by predicting habitat suitability and calculating resistant kernel, factorial least‐cost path modelling and graph network indices.

Location

Iran.

Methods

We used an ensemble model (EM) of habitat suitability methods to predict the potential habitats of leopard, cheetah, caracal, wild cat, sand cat and grey wolf and used resistant kernel and factorial least‐cost path modelling to identify important core habitats and corridors between patches. We also used a graph network analysis to quantify the importance of each core patch to landscape connectivity.

Results

Potential habitats of the studied carnivores appeared to be strongly influenced by prey density, annual precipitation, topographical roughness, shrubland density and anthropogenic factors. Most of the core patches were covered by protected areas and no‐hunting areas. This may be attributed to the relatively high resistance outside protected areas leading to isolated occupied patches. Patch importance to connectivity was significantly correlated with patch extent, density of dispersing individuals and probability of occurrence in the core patch.

Main conclusions

Our findings revealed that prey abundance in core habitat is critically important, and has higher influence than habitat area per se. In addition, our analysis provided the first map of landscape connectivity for multiple species in Iran and revealed that conserving these species requires integrated landscape‐level management to reduce mortality risk and protect core areas and linkages among them. These results will assist the development of multispecies conservation strategies to protect core areas for carnivores.

     

Identifying potential conservation areas in the Cuitzeo Lake basin,Mexico by multitemporal analysis of landscape connectivity

Lake Cuitzeo basin is an important ecological area subjected to strong human pressure on forest covers that are key elements for the long-term support of biodiversity. We studied landscape connectivity changes for the years 1975, 1996, 2000, 2003 and 2008 to identify potential conservation areas in the basin. We modeled potential distributions of the Mexican bobcat (Lynx rufus escuinapae) and the ringtail (Bassariscus astutus) – two terrestrial mammal focal species with contrasting dispersal capacities – and we determined their habitat availability and suitability in the basin. We then identified their optimal habitat patches and produced landscape cumulative resistance maps, estimated least-cost paths (graph theory approach), and elaborated current flow maps (circuit theory approach). For evaluation of landscape connectivity, we applied an integral index of connectivity (IIC) to each study period, and determined individual habitat patch contribution to the overall landscape connectivity. The IIC index had very low values associated with reduced availability of focal species habitat. However, our study showed the conservation importance of the surface of optimal habitat patch areas. The combined application of a graph-based approach and current flow mapping were useful, and complementary both in terms of estimating potential dispersal corridors and identifying high probability dispersal areas. This indicated that landscape connectivity analysis is a useful tool for identification of potential conservation areas and for local landscape planning.     

Incidence and population dynamics of the leaf beetle Gonioctena olivacea in dynamic habitats

In natural as well as in cultural landscapes, disturbance and succession are responsible for the emergence and subsequent disappearance of suitable habitat patches. The dynamics of habitat patches has important consequences for the spatial structure and dynamics of regional populations. However, there are only few studies quantifying both patch dynamics and incidence of insect species in a dynamic landscape over several years. I studied the incidence and population dynamics of the leaf beetle Gonioctena olivacea in a system of dynamic patches of the host plant Scotch broom Cytisus scoparius . The incidence of the beetle was most strongly affected by patch area, whereas connectivity, patch quality, patch age, and landscape context had no or only a minor effect when analysed with logistic regression. The size of local beetle populations was highly fluctuating between the years; however, the population dynamics of the local populations was not synchronous. Adjacent patches did not show higher degrees of synchrony than patches separated by large distances. In the three years of study, local populations became extinct through demographic or environmental stochasticity and patch destruction. Each year >10% of the patches disappeared. The extinction rate of beetles in persistent patches was decreasing with increasing patch area. On the other hand, patches newly emerged and were rapidly colonized by the beetle. The colonization rate depended on patch connectivity. Obviously, Gonioctena olivacea was capable of persisting in this system with high turnover of patches owing to its high dispersal power.     

丹顶鹤多尺度生境选择机制——以黄河三角洲自然保护区为例

生境在鸟类生活史中发挥着重要的作用,关系到鸟类的生存和繁衍。由于鸟类对环境变化的响应发生在等级序列空间尺度上,基于多尺度的研究更能深入刻画鸟类-环境之间关系。以丹顶鹤(Grus japonensis)为研究对象,以其迁徙和越冬的重要地区-黄河三角洲自然保护区为研究区域,应用等级方差分解法和等级划分法,分析丹顶鹤与微生境、斑块、景观尺度因子之间的关系,探求丹顶鹤生境选择的主要影响因素和尺度。等级方差分解结果表明,在第1等级水平,景观尺度因子与微生境、斑块尺度因子之间的联合效应大于独立效应,景观尺度因子的独立效应大于微生境和斑块尺度因子;在第2等级水平,景观尺度上的景观组成因子重要性大于景观结构因子,微生境尺度上的植被和水分因子为重要影响因素。等级划分结果表明,景观尺度上,翅碱蓬滩涂、水体面积大小是主要影响因素;微生境尺度上,植被盖度和水深为主要限制因子;在斑块尺度上,斑块类型对丹顶鹤生境选择最为重要。研究认为,在黄河三角洲自然保护区,景观尺度是影响丹顶鹤生境选择的主要尺度,景观尺度因子通过与微生境和斑块尺度因子的独立和联合作用制约着丹顶鹤在保护区的生境选择和空间分布格局。建议加强对翅碱蓬滩涂、芦苇沼泽、水体等湿地生境的保护和管理,规范和控制保护区内人类活动强度。     

Landscape-scale habitat fragmentation is positively related to biodiversity,despite patch-scale ecosystem decay

Positive effects of habitat patch size on biodiversity are often extrapolated to infer negative effects of habitat fragmentation on biodiversity at landscape scales. However, such cross-scale extrapolations typically fail. A recent, landmark, patch-scale analysis (Chase et al., 2020, Nature 584, 238–243) demonstrates positive patch size effects on biodiversity, that is, ‘ecosystem decay’ in small patches. Other authors have already extrapolated this result to infer negative fragmentation effects, that is, higher biodiversity in a few large than many small patches of the same cumulative habitat area. We test whether this extrapolation is valid. We find that landscape-scale patterns are opposite to their analogous patch-scale patterns: for sets of patches with equal total habitat area, species richness and evenness decrease with increasing mean size of the patches comprising that area, even when considering only species of conservation concern. Preserving small habitat patches will, therefore, be key to sustain biodiversity amidst ongoing environmental crises.     

Internal Habitat Quality Determines the Effects of Fragmentation on Austral Forest Climbing and Epiphytic Angiosperms

Habitat fragmentation has become one of the major threats to biodiversity worldwide, particularly in the case of forests, which have suffered enormous losses during the past decades. We analyzed how changes in patch configuration and habitat quality derived from the fragmentation of austral temperate rainforests affect the distribution of six species of forest-dwelling climbing and epiphytic angiosperms. Epiphyte and vine abundance is primarily affected by the internal characteristics of patches (such as tree size, the presence of logging gaps or the proximity to patch edges) rather than patch and landscape features (such as patch size, shape or connectivity). These responses were intimately related to species-specific characteristics such as drought- or shade-tolerance. Our study therefore suggests that plant responses to fragmentation are contingent on both the species'' ecology and the specific pathways through which the study area is being fragmented, (i.e. extensive logging that shaped the boundaries of current forest patches plus recent, unregulated logging that creates gaps within patches). Management practices in fragmented landscapes should therefore consider habitat quality within patches together with other spatial attributes at landscape or patch scales.     

Remnants fragments preserve genetic diversity of the old forest lichen <Emphasis Type="Italic">Lobaria pulmonaria</Emphasis> in a fragmented Mediterranean mountain forest

Fragmentation represents a serious threat to biodiversity worldwide, however its effects on epiphytic organisms is still poorly understood. We study the effect of habitat fragmentation on the genetic population structure and diversity of the red-listed epiphytic lichen, Lobaria pulmonaria, in a Mediterranean forest landscape. We tested the relative importance of forest patch quality, matrix surrounding fragments and connectivity on the genetic variation within populations and the differentiation among them. A total of 855 thalli were sampled in 44 plots (400 m²) of 31 suitable forest fragments (beeches and oaks), in the Sierra de Ayllón in central Spain. Variables related to landscape attributes of the remnant forest patches such as size and connectivity and also the nature of the matrix or tree species had no significant effects on the genetic diversity of L. pulmonaria. Values of genetic diversity (Nei’s) were only affected by habitat quality estimated as the age patches. Most of the variation (76%) in all populations was observed at the smallest sampled unit (plots). Using multiple regression analysis, we found that habitat quality is more important in explaining the genetic structure of the L. pulmonaria populations than spatial distance. The relatively high level of genetic diversity of the species in old forest patches regardless of patch size indicates that habitat quality in a highly structured forest stand determines the population size and distribution pattern of this species and its associated lichen community. Thus, conservation programmes of Mediterranean mountain forests have to prioritize area and habitat quality of old forest patches.     

Influence of Patch Factors and Connectivity on the Avifauna of Fragmented Polylepis Forest in the Ecuadorian Andes

Human‐induced alteration of habitat is a major threat to biodiversity worldwide, especially in areas of high biological diversity and endemism. Polylepis (Rosaceae) forest, a unique forest habitat in the high Andes of South America, presently occurs as small and isolated patches in grassland dominated landscapes. We examine how the avian community is likely influenced by patch characteristics (i.e., area, plant species composition) and connectivity in a landscape composed of patches of Polylepis forest surrounded by páramo grasslands in Cajas National Park in the Andes of southern Ecuador. We used generalized linear mixed models and an information‐theoretic approach to identify the most important variables probably influencing birds inhabiting 26 forest patches. Our results indicated that species richness was associated with area of a patch and floristic composition, particularly the presence of Gynoxys (Asteraceae). However, connectivity of patches probably influenced the abundance of forest and generalists species. Elsewhere, it has been proposed that effective management plans for birds using Polylepis should promote the conservation of mature Polylepis patches. Our results not only suggest this but also show that there are additional factors, such as the presence of Gynoxys plants, which will probably play a role in conservation of birds. More generally, these findings show that while easily measured attributes of the patch and landscape may provide some insights into what influences patch use by birds, knowledge of other factors, such as plant species composition, is essential for better understanding the distribution of birds in fragmented landscapes.     

基于电路理论的南京城市绿色基础设施格局优化

城市绿色基础设施的连通性与格局优化能显著提升城市的生物多样性和可持续发展能力,对维持城市生态系统的健康与稳定具有重要意义。基于电路理论构建了南京市主城区绿色基础设施景观格局,根据电流密度分析斑块、廊道重要性,并借助移动窗口搜索法识别障碍点,提出南京市景观格局优化策略。研究结果表明:(1)南京主城区景观破碎化程度较高,40%的生境斑块(约为28.18 km2)对连通性的贡献较低,南部重要廊道的数量最多,局部簇团成网,网络结构较为复杂,其次为中部,且河流廊道(秦淮河)是其主要廊道类型,北部廊道数量最少,斑块多呈孤岛分布;(2)研究区共有155处障碍点,其中84.5%面积小于5hm2,可见主城区景观连通性仍有较大的提升空间。研究丰富了城市绿色基础设施景观格局的构建方法,对南京主城区绿色基础设施的连通性与格局优化具有一定的实践指导意义与参考价值。     

Testing alternative models for the conservation of koalas in fragmented rural–urban landscapes

Abstract Predicting the various responses of different species to changes in landscape structure is a formidable challenge to landscape ecology. Based on expert knowledge and landscape ecological theory, we develop five competing a priori models for predicting the presence/absence of the Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) in Noosa Shire, south‐east Queensland (Australia). A priori predictions were nested within three levels of ecological organization: in situ (site level) habitat (<1 ha), patch level (100 ha) and landscape level (100–1000 ha). To test the models, Koala surveys and habitat surveys (n = 245) were conducted across the habitat mosaic. After taking into account tree species preferences, the patch and landscape context, and the neighbourhood effect of adjacent present sites, we applied logistic regression and hierarchical partitioning analyses to rank the alternative models and the explanatory variables. The strongest support was for a multilevel model, with Koala presence best predicted by the proportion of the landscape occupied by high quality habitat, the neighbourhood effect, the mean nearest neighbour distance between forest patches, the density of forest patches and the density of sealed roads. When tested against independent data (n = 105) using a receiver operator characteristic curve, the multilevel model performed moderately well. The study is consistent with recent assertions that habitat loss is the major driver of population decline, however, landscape configuration and roads have an important effect that needs to be incorporated into Koala conservation strategies.     

Alpine glacial relict species losing out to climate change: The case of the fragmented mountain hare population (Lepus timidus) in the Alps

Alpine and Arctic species are considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate change, which is expected to cause habitat loss, fragmentation and—ultimately—extinction of cold‐adapted species. However, the impact of climate change on glacial relict populations is not well understood, and specific recommendations for adaptive conservation management are lacking. We focused on the mountain hare (Lepus timidus) as a model species and modelled species distribution in combination with patch and landscape‐based connectivity metrics. They were derived from graph‐theory models to quantify changes in species distribution and to estimate the current and future importance of habitat patches for overall population connectivity. Models were calibrated based on 1,046 locations of species presence distributed across three biogeographic regions in the Swiss Alps and extrapolated according to two IPCC scenarios of climate change (RCP 4.5 & 8.5), each represented by three downscaled global climate models. The models predicted an average habitat loss of 35% (22%–55%) by 2100, mainly due to an increase in temperature during the reproductive season. An increase in habitat fragmentation was reflected in a 43% decrease in patch size, a 17% increase in the number of habitat patches and a 34% increase in inter‐patch distance. However, the predicted changes in habitat availability and connectivity varied considerably between biogeographic regions: Whereas the greatest habitat losses with an increase in inter‐patch distance were predicted at the southern and northern edges of the species’ Alpine distribution, the greatest increase in patch number and decrease in patch size is expected in the central Swiss Alps. Finally, both the number of isolated habitat patches and the number of patches crucial for maintaining the habitat network increased under the different variants of climate change. Focusing conservation action on the central Swiss Alps may help mitigate the predicted effects of climate change on population connectivity.     

Flight morphology corresponds to both surrounding landscape structure and local patch conditions in a highly specialized peatland butterfly (Lycaena epixanthe)

1. Movement mediates the response of populations and communities to landscape and habitat spatial structure, yet movement capability may itself be modified by selection pressures accompanying landscape change. Insect flight morphology can be affected by both the landscape surrounding habitat patches and the distribution of resources within habitat patches. 2. This study investigated the relative influence of local habitat patch conditions and surrounding landscape structure on variation in morphological traits associated with flight in the bog copper (Lycaena epixanthe), a butterfly endemic to temperate Nearctic peatlands. 3. Eight habitat patches were sampled to assess the influence of the surrounding landscape (connectivity of potential habitat and matrix composition) and patch size (an integrated proxy of resource density and spatial distribution) on investment into flight, measured by thorax and abdomen mass, and wing area. 4. The results revealed an effect of both local habitat conditions and landscape structure on flight‐related morphological traits. Increasing forest cover in the surrounding landscape, indicative of increased habitat patch isolation, corresponded with less mobile phenotypes in both sexes. Surrounding landscapes with more water were also generally associated with less mobile phenotypes. Investment into flight was greater in smaller peatlands in which host plant density is higher and more homogeneously distributed. 5. The present study highlights that morphological traits associated with mobility may be responding to both local habitat patch characteristics and surrounding landscape structure. It also supports the hypothesis that local habitat conditions contribute to morphological variation in butterflies.     

Effects of environment,habitat configuration and forest continuity on the distribution of forest plant species

In present day European landscapes many forest plant species are restricted to isolated remnants of a formerly more or less continuous forest cover. The two major objectives of this study were (1) to determine the relative importance of habitat quality (mainly in terms of soil parameters), habitat configuration (patch size and isolation) and habitat continuity for the distribution of herbaceous forest plant species in a highly fragmented landscape and (2) to examine if groups of species with different habitat requirements are affected differently. Deciduous forest patches in northwestern Germany were surveyed for the presence of a large set of forest species. For each patch, habitat quality, configuration and continuity were determined. Data were analysed by Redundancy Analysis with variation partitioning for effects on total species composition and multivariate logistic regression for effects on individual species, for two different data sets (base‐rich and base‐poor forest patches). Overall, we found strong effects of habitat quality (particularly of soil pH, water content and topographic heterogeneity in the base‐rich forest patches; and of calcium content and disturbance in the base‐poor patches), but only relatively weak effects of habitat configuration and habitat continuity. However, a number of species were positively affected by patch area and negatively affected by patch isolation. Furthermore, the relative importance of habitat configuration tended to be higher for species predominantly growing in closed forests compared to species occurring both in the forest and in the open landscape.     

Metacommunity,mainland‐island system or island communities? Assessing the regional dynamics of plant communities in a fragmented landscape

Understanding the regional dynamics of plant communities is crucial for predicting the response of plant diversity to habitat fragmentation. However, for fragmented landscapes the importance of regional processes, such as seed dispersal among isolated habitat patches, has been controversially debated. Due to the stochasticity and rarity of among‐patch dispersal and colonization events, we still lack a quantitative understanding of the consequences of these processes at the landscape‐scale. In this study, we used extensive field data from a fragmented, semi‐arid landscape in Israel to parameterize a multi‐species incidence‐function model. This model simulates species occupancy pattern based on patch areas and habitat configuration and explicitly considers the locations and the shapes of habitat patches for the derivation of patch connectivity. We implemented an approximate Bayesian computation approach for parameter inference and uncertainty assessment. We tested which of the three types of regional dynamics – the metacommunity, the mainland‐island, or the island communities type – best represents the community dynamics in the study area and applied the simulation model to estimate the extinction debt in the investigated landscape. We found that the regional dynamics in the patch‐matrix study landscape is best represented as a system of highly isolated ‘island’ communities with low rates of propagule exchange among habitat patches and consequently low colonization rates in local communities. Accordingly, the extinction rates in the local communities are the main drivers of community dynamics. Our findings indicate that the landscape carries a significant extinction debt and in model projections 33–60% of all species went extinct within 1000 yr. Our study demonstrates that the combination of dynamic simulation models with field data provides a promising approach for understanding regional community dynamics and for projecting community responses to habitat fragmentation. The approach bears the potential for efficient tests of conservation activities aimed at mitigating future losses of biodiversity.