全球变化与野生物种:观测和预测

由于人类活动的影响,世界正在变暖。迅速的全球变化很可能对野生物种产生巨大影响,同时伴随着城市化、农垦和造林实践所引起的自然生境的丧失和破坏。观测和预测的气候变化对野生物种的影响着眼于4个方面：生活史的时间、物种分布与种群格局、迁移对策以及重要地点。许多物种可能因气候的变化而灭绝,而气候变化所造成的野生物种分布的变化很可能对人类产生长期久远的影响。     

中国蚊传疾病及其媒介蚊类研究进展

蚊子通过吸食脊椎动物的血液获取产卵必须的营养从而繁殖后代。蚊子在吸食人血的过程中,可以传播多种严重的人类疾病,对人类健康危害极大。随着全球化的迅速发展以及全球性气候变化加剧,以登革病毒和寨卡病毒为代表的虫媒病毒分布也呈现全球化。我国地理跨度大,本土的病原和媒介丰富,并且随着我国人口增长、城市化的扩大、国际贸易频繁、国际旅游增多等因素,导致输入性的蚊传疾病也越来越多,带来的公共卫生问题也越来越受到重视。本文对我国重要的蚊传疾病（登革热、日本脑炎、疟疾、黄热病、西尼罗河热、寨卡热、基孔肯尼亚热、辛徳毕斯病等）及其媒介蚊类、分布与特性等进行系统介绍,以期为我国蚊及蚊传疾病的系统研究和综合防控提供理论基础。     

昆虫共生微生物在病虫害和疾病控制上的应用前景

昆虫与微生物之间的互利共生关系是自然界中一种常见的互作形式。昆虫的种类丰富多样并且在自然界中分布广泛,在一定程度上得益于共生微生物的帮助。随着生物技术的不断发展,越来越多的共生微生物和互利共生模式得以发现并深入研究。微生物不仅能够为昆虫的生长发育提供营养,还能合成很多生物活性物质、调节宿主的免疫、对抗捕食者和抵御病原微生物感染,成为宿主昆虫健康和适应的守护者。鉴于共生微生物与昆虫生理生态的密切联系,以及昆虫对人类经济与健康的重要影响,利用共生微生物对昆虫及虫媒病进行生物控制已经成为一个热点研究方向,并展现了良好的应用前景。本文对昆虫共生微生物的多样性、生物学功能、与宿主相互作用机制及其在病虫害和虫媒病防治中的研究进展进行综述和展望。     

气候变化对传染病爆发流行的影响研究进展

全球气候变化已影响到传染病发生、传播与变化的各个环节,从病原体及其携带者、传播途径和人体自身抵抗力等方面直接或间接影响传染病的发病趋势,从而对人类健康造成了巨大的威胁。所以加强对气候变化与传染病间关系、预测预报研究,对进一步认识、预防和控制传染病的爆发流行具有重要意义。本文首先阐述了全球气候变化对生物物种的地理分布和人类健康的影响,气候变化改变了生物物种的地理分布范围,增加了某些物种的潜在分布区域,并造成生物物侯期的改变;同时,极端气候事件成为导致种群数量波动的一个重要驱动力。气候变化对人类健康有直接和间接影响,它使得传染病发病率增加、传染病分布范围扩大、人群对疾病易感性增强。文章重点评述了气候变化对疟疾、登革热、霍乱、流行性乙型脑炎、流感、SARS、肠道传染病、鼠疫、血吸虫病等常见传染病流行机制和传播过程的影响研究进展。评述了传染病和气象因子关系分析中常用的定性和定量分析方法,传统的研究多以定性分析为主,方法较单一;目前,利用流行病学资料与同期的气象因子进行单因素相关分析、多元回归分析是常用的研究方法;主成分回归分析、逐步判别分析、灰色关联分析法、RS和GIS等方法近年来逐渐得到应用;数学建模、实验室生物学仿真实验方法是今后需强化的方向。提出了该研究领域国内外研究普遍存在和亟待解决的问题,针对目前的研究现状和存在的问题,提出了未来的研究重点和发展方向。     

鼠疫

鼠疫是危害人类最严重的烈性传染病之一,仍是对人类生命健康、社会经济发展影响最为重要的公共卫生问题。阐述了世界和中国鼠疫自然疫源地的分布、动物鼠疫流行病学、中国鼠疫自然疫源地类型及动物流行病学特点、人类鼠疫流行病学和防治。     

基于陷阱法采集的河西走廊戈壁荒漠甲虫数据集

戈壁荒漠甲虫多样性对气候变化和人类活动干扰的响应十分敏感,甲虫数量、多样性及其功能性状可用于评估戈壁荒漠生态系统的健康与稳定。戈壁荒漠甲虫分布及多样性月动态变化数据积累可为荒漠生态系统动物多样性保护与维持机制研究提供数据支撑。河西走廊中部是戈壁荒漠主要分布区之一, 2012年研究组在河西走廊中部的甘肃省临泽县北部干旱荒漠国家沙化土地封禁保护区内建立了地表甲虫分布及多样性的长期监测样地。本数据主要汇集了戈壁荒漠地表甲虫物种组成、物种照片、活动节律、数量及功能性状信息数据。该数据集可用于典型荒漠甲虫种属识别、典型甲虫种功能性状比对及其时空分布格局对气候变化及人类活动扰动的响应研究。     

养殖动物及其相关环境耐药组的研究进展

畜牧养殖业中大量抗生素的使用,导致养殖动物及其相关环境中存在大量的耐药基因/耐药细菌。这些耐药基因可以借助基因水平转移等方式在环境中进一步扩散,甚至进入食品动物随食物链传播,对生态环境、食品安全和人类健康造成极大的威胁。随着基因组学研究手段的不断进步,养殖动物及其相关环境中耐药基因的多样性和生态学分布规律被广泛揭示。文中综述了相关领域耐药基因的研究进展,探讨了其对人体健康的潜在影响,并对未来的研究方向进行了展望。     

疏勒河流域气候变化和人类活动对植被NPP的相对影响评价

气候变化和人类活动是对陆地生态系统碳循环产生重要影响的两个因素,定量评估气候变化与人类活动对植被净初级生产力(NPP)的相对影响,对深入理解其驱动机制和控制荒漠化发展具有重要意义。以疏勒河流域为研究区,利用遥感和气象数据计算潜在NPP(PNPP)及其与实际NPP(ANPP)之间的差值,分别衡量了气候变化和人类活动对流域NPP的相对影响。研究结果表明:(1)2001—2015年疏勒河流域年ANPP整体呈缓慢增加趋势,与全国和西北地区相比,普遍较低,流域植被整体生产力水平不高。流域年ANPP空间分布呈现上游祁连山区和中下游绿洲区ANPP较高,而中下游荒漠戈壁区ANPP较低的分布格局。(2)2001—2015年流域年PNPP的变化趋势表明,降水量的变化是导致疏勒河流域植被退化加剧或缓解的主要气候驱动因素,但气温的变化对植被的影响较为复杂。(3)2001—2015年流域大部分地区植被退化系人类活动造成的,但人类活动的负向影响力在减弱。(4)气候变化和人类活动对植被NPP的相对影响均表现出明显的空间异质性,其中人类活动是疏勒河流域植被变化的主要驱动因素。     

中国生物多样性适应气候变化策略研究

全球气候变化不仅给人类社会可持续发展带来严峻挑战,而且严重威胁到生物多样性及生态安全。我国是生物多样性最为丰富的国家之一,气候变化已经在对动物分布、行为和迁移,植物物候、植被和群落结构等方面造成了影响,并增加了珍稀濒危物种的灭绝风险,同时对生态系统的功能方面也造成了明显影响。未来气候变化将成为生物多样性丧失的主要驱动力之一。世界很多国家都在制定生物多样性适应气候变化的策略和采取适应行动,加强生物多样性的保护。本文在分析国外适应策略的基础上,结合中国生物多样性的现状,提出了适应气候变化的策略建议,包括制定生物多样性适应气候变化的国家战略,开展气候变化对生物多样性的影响监测和评估,针对敏感物种的就地保护和迁地保护,针对气候变化将导致退化生态系统开展恢复与重建,重点关注生物多样性适应气候变化优先区的保护,通过科学研究和国际合作,促进生物多样性适应气候变化技术的提高,期望为我国生物多样性保护和应对气候变化提供支持。     

宠物和实验动物

宠物在我国已经成为一个日渐壮大的产业和庞大的群体。宠物与人类朝夕相处,最容易成为动物源性疾病的传染源,对人类健康造成潜在威胁。为了人类自身和宠物健康,我们必须对宠物投入更多的关注。宠物和实验动物作为两种不同用途的动物,存在众多的相似点。我国已经建立了相对完善的实验动物生产、使用、质量保障和福利的管理体系。实验动物的管理体系也许可以为宠物的生产、饲养、质量保证和福利的管理体系提供借鉴。     

Climate changes, environment and infection: facts, scenarios and growing awareness from the public health community within Europe

Climate change is a current global concern and, despite continuing controversy about the extent and importance of causes and of its effects, it seems likely that it will affect the incidence and prevalence of both residual and imported infections in Europe. Climate affects mainly the range of infectious diseases, whereas weather affects the timing and intensity of outbreaks. Climate change scenarios include a change distribution of infectious diseases with warming and changes in outbreaks associated with weather extremes. The largest health impact from climate change for Europe doesn’t come from vector borne infectious diseases. This does not mean that these types of health impacts will not arise in Europe. The ranges of several vector-borne diseases or their vectors are already changing in altitude due to warming. In addition, more intense weather events create conditions conductive to outbreaks of infectious diseases: Heavy rains leave insect breeding sites, drive rodents from burrows, and contaminate clean water systems. The incidence of mosquito-borne parasitic and viral diseases, are among those diseases most sensitive to climate. Climate change affect disease transmission by shifting the vector’s geographic range and by shortening the pathogen incubation period. climate-related increases in temperature in sea surface and level would lead to higher incidence of waterborne infectious and toxin-related illnesses, such as cholera and seafood intoxication. Climate changes all around the world with impact in Europe are demonstrated by the fact that recent cases of cholera have been imported to Europe from Kenya, where spreading epidemic has been linked to the El Niño phenomenon, originated from the Pacific Ocean. Human migration and damage to health infrastructures from aberrant climate changes could indirectly contribute to disease transmission. Human susceptibility to infections might be further compounded by alterations in the human immune system caused by increased exposure to ultraviolet radiation and malnutrition due to alterations in agricultural products. Different kind of incidents in Europe with extreme weather events demonstrated effects on public health. The recent outbreak of the insect-borne Chikungunya virus in Italy in 2007 is an example of the kind of new health threat that the EU must be vigilant to confront. In addition, health effects of flooding, have been related to an excess cases of leptospirosis and campylobacter enteritis. Such examples have been demonstrated reported after flooding in the Czech Republic. Similarly, an increase of cryptosporidiosis in the United Kingdom has been related to flooding. Changing vector distributions associated with tickborne encephalitis and malaria have also been dempostrated in EU. A recently reported case of malaria in Italy in June 2008, suspected to be indigenously acquired, has shown how easily malaria could be reintroduced into several countries in the region. Another case of malaria in Greece in May 2010 affecting a young man living in a forestry region was claimed at KEELPNO-the Greek Center for disease control. Would this latest case be considered closely related to the one from Italy? If yes, then Public Health Services should elaborate plans to affront possible tickborne diseases. Heat waves are important causes of mortality on mortality are important. The deaths seen in France in 2003 from a heat wave are projected to be repeated, as heat waves become more severe. However, heat waves impacts on the transmission and severity of infectious diseases have not been elucidated. Finally scientific challenges include the elucudation of climate changes and extreme weather condition impact on infection transmission and outcome, human immune system changes and infection response, outbreak scenarios, animal and plant health and public health preparedness. European action plans to affront climate changes related health and infection problems are developed by the EU Commission at different levels and jointly by different DGs. In a few words within the EU the following points on human, animal and plant health are considered a priority: * Strengthening cooperation between the services of these three branches of health (human, animals, plants); * Developing action plans in the event of extreme weather conditions, in order to be better prepared and to react in the best way; * Gathering more reliable information on the risks of climate change whilst maintaining international cooperation, in particular with the WHO, as cooperation beyond that between Member States will be required to be more effective; * Providing additional effort to identify the most effective measures; * Improving the surveillance and the control of the animal diseases. The European Commission has decided to consider climate change, and the consequences it has on health, with greater importance whilst being aware that it is at the root of numerous diseases.     

Early effects of climate change: do they include changes in vector-borne disease?

The world's climate appears now to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Shifts in the distribution and behaviour of insect and bird species indicate that biological systems are already responding to this change. It is well established that climate is an important determinant of the spatial and temporal distribution of vectors and pathogens. In theory, a change in climate would be expected to cause changes in the geographical range, seasonality (intra-annual variability), and in the incidence rate (with or without changes in geographical or seasonal patterns). The detection and then attribution of such changes to climate change is an emerging task for scientists. We discuss the evidence required to attribute changes in disease and vectors to the early effects of anthropogenic climate change. The literature to date indicates that there is a lack of strong evidence of the impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases (i.e. malaria, dengue, leishmaniasis, tick-borne diseases). New approaches to monitoring, such as frequent and long-term sampling along transects to monitor the full latitudinal and altitudinal range of specific vector species, are necessary in order to provide convincing direct evidence of climate change effects. There is a need to reassess the appropriate levels of evidence, including dealing with the uncertainties attached to detecting the health impacts of global change.     

Impact of Land-use Change on Dengue and Malaria in Northern Thailand

Land-use change, a major constituent of global environmental change, potentially has significant consequences for human health in relation to mosquito-borne diseases. Land-use change can influence mosquito habitat, and therefore the distribution and abundance of vectors, and land use mediates human–mosquito interactions, including biting rate. Based on a conceptual model linking the landscape, people, and mosquitoes, this interdisciplinary study focused on the impacts of changes in land use on dengue and malaria vectors and dengue transmission in northern Thailand. Extensive data on mosquito presence and abundance, land-use change, and infection risk determinants were collected over 3 years. The results of the different components of the study were then integrated through a set of equations linking land use to disease via mosquito abundance. The impacts of a number of plausible scenarios for future land-use changes in the region, and of concomitant behavioral change were assessed. Results indicated that land-use changes have a detectable impact on mosquito populations and on infection. This impact varies according to the local environment but can be counteracted by adoption of preventive measures.     

Modeling the effects of biologically incorporated radionuclides and chronic low-dose ionizing radiation exposure on both cancer and chronic non-cancer diseases

Efforts to model the health effects of low-dose ionizing radiation (IR) have often focused on cancer. Meanwhile, significant evidence links IR and age-associated non-cancer diseases. Modeling of such complex processes, which are not currently well understood, is a challenging problem. In this paper we briefly overview recent successful attempts to model cancer on a population level and propose how those models may be adapted to include the impact of IR and to describe complex non-cancer diseases. We propose three classes of models which we believe are well suited for the analysis of the health effects in human populations exposed to low-dose IR. These models use biostatistical/epidemiological techniques and mathematical formulas describing the biological mechanisms of the impact of IR on human health. They can combine data from multiple sources and from distinct levels of biological/population organization. The proposed models are intrinsically multivariate and non-linear and capture the dynamic aspects of health change.     

Mosquito-borne disease and climate change in Australia: time for a reality check

Will warming climate increase the risk or prevalence of mosquito-borne disease in Australia, as has been projected in a number of scientific publications and governmental reports? Unfortunately, most of these 'predictions' do not adequately consider the current and historical distribution of the vectors and diseases, their local ecology and epidemiology and the impact of societal features and the capacity for public health interventions in Australia. Overall, a strong case can be made that we are unlikely to see significant changes in the distribution of transmission of the exotic pathogens causing malaria and dengue, and while activity of endemic arboviruses such as Murray Valley encephalitis and Ross River viruses may possibly increase in some areas, it is likely to decrease in others. The ecologies of mosquito-borne diseases can be complex and difficult to predict, and any evaluation of potential effects of changes in climate will need a detailed examination of site-specific vector, host and other factors likely to influence the outcomes on human health. Of itself, climate change as currently projected, is not likely to provide great cause for public health concern with mosquito-borne disease in Australia.     

Health at the Sub-catchment Scale: Typhoid and Its Environmental Determinants in Central Division,Fiji

EcoHealth - The impact of environmental change on transmission patterns of waterborne enteric diseases is a major public health concern. This study concerns the burden and spatial nature of enteric...     

Climate change and health with an emphasis on interactions with ultraviolet radiation: a review

Climate change is increasingly recognized as a major risk to human health, and health concerns are assuming more importance in international debates on mitigation and adaptation strategies. Health consequences of climate change will occur through direct and indirect routes, and as a result of interactions with other environmental exposures. Heatwaves will become more common and are associated with higher mortality particularly in the elderly and those with pre‐existing cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses. Warmer ambient temperatures will result in more dehydration episodes and increased risks of renal disease and, through effects on pollen seasons, there may be an increase in allergic disease such as asthma and hayfever. Other adverse effects including on air quality, food safety and security and an expanding distribution of some infectious diseases, including vector‐borne diseases, are postulated. A related but separate environmental exposure is that of ultraviolet radiation (UVR). Interactions between climate change and stratospheric ozone (and the causes of ozone depletion) will cause changes to levels of ambient UVR in the future and warmer temperatures are likely to change sun exposure behaviour. Co‐occurring effects on aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems have potential consequences for food safety, quality and supply. Climate change‐related exposures are likely to affect the incidence and distribution of diseases usually considered as caused by UVR exposure; and changes in UVR exposure will modulate the climate change effects on human health. For example, in some regions warmer temperatures due to climate change will encourage more outdoor behaviour, with likely consequences for increasing skin cancer incidence. Although many of the health outcomes of both climate change and the interaction of climate change and UVR exposure are somewhat speculative, there are risks to over‐ or under‐estimations of health risks if synergistic and antagonistic effects of co‐occurring environmental changes are not considered.     

A global view on fungal infections in humans and animals: infections caused by dimorphic fungi and dermatophytoses

Fungal infections are still underappreciated and their prevalence is underestimated, which renders them a serious public health problem. Realistic discussions about their distribution, symptoms, and control can improve management and diagnosis and contribute to refinement of preventive actions using currently available tools. This article represents an overview of dermatophytes and endemic fungi that cause infections in humans and animals. In addition, the impact of climate change on the fungal spread is discussed. The endemic fungal infections characterized in this article include coccidioidomycosis, histoplasmosis, blastomycosis, lobomycosis, emergomycosis and sporotrichosis. Moreover the geographic distribution of these fungi, which are known to be climate sensitive and/or limited to endemic tropical and subtropical areas, is highlighted. In turn, dermatophytes cause superficial fungal infections of skin, hairs and nails, which are the most prevalent mycoses worldwide with a high economic burden. Therefore, the possibility of causing zoonoses and reverse zoonoses by dermatophytes is highly important. In conclusion, the article illustrates the current issues of the epidemiology and distribution of fungal diseases, emphasizing the lack of public programmes for prevention and control of these types of infection.     

Quantifying Trends in Disease Impact to Produce a Consistent and Reproducible Definition of an Emerging Infectious Disease

The proper allocation of public health resources for research and control requires quantification of both a disease''s current burden and the trend in its impact. Infectious diseases that have been labeled as “emerging infectious diseases” (EIDs) have received heightened scientific and public attention and resources. However, the label ‘emerging’ is rarely backed by quantitative analysis and is often used subjectively. This can lead to over-allocation of resources to diseases that are incorrectly labelled “emerging,” and insufficient allocation of resources to diseases for which evidence of an increasing or high sustained impact is strong. We suggest a simple quantitative approach, segmented regression, to characterize the trends and emergence of diseases. Segmented regression identifies one or more trends in a time series and determines the most statistically parsimonious split(s) (or joinpoints) in the time series. These joinpoints in the time series indicate time points when a change in trend occurred and may identify periods in which drivers of disease impact change. We illustrate the method by analyzing temporal patterns in incidence data for twelve diseases. This approach provides a way to classify a disease as currently emerging, re-emerging, receding, or stable based on temporal trends, as well as to pinpoint the time when the change in these trends happened. We argue that quantitative approaches to defining emergence based on the trend in impact of a disease can, with appropriate context, be used to prioritize resources for research and control. Implementing this more rigorous definition of an EID will require buy-in and enforcement from scientists, policy makers, peer reviewers and journal editors, but has the potential to improve resource allocation for global health.