Evolutionary rescue by beneficial mutations in environments that change in space and time

A factor that may limit the ability of many populations to adapt to changing conditions is the rate at which beneficial mutations can become established. We study the probability that mutations become established in changing environments by extending the classic theory for branching processes. When environments change in time, under quite general conditions, the establishment probability is approximately twice the ‘effective selection coefficient’, whose value is an average that gives most weight to a mutant''s fitness in the generations immediately after it appears. When fitness varies along a gradient in a continuous habitat, increased dispersal generally decreases the chance a mutation establishes because mutations move out of areas where they are most adapted. When there is a patch of favourable habitat that moves in time, there is a maximum speed of movement above which mutations cannot become established, regardless of when and where they first appear. This critical speed limit, which is proportional to the mutation''s maximum selective advantage, represents an absolute constraint on the potential of locally adapted mutations to contribute to evolutionary rescue.     

Haploids adapt faster than diploids across a range of environments

Despite a great deal of theoretical attention, we have limited empirical data about how ploidy influences the rate of adaptation. We evolved isogenic haploid and diploid populations of Saccharomyces cerevisiae for 200 generations in seven different environments. We measured the competitive fitness of all ancestral and evolved lines against a common competitor and find that in all seven environments, haploid lines adapted faster than diploids, significantly so in three environments. We apply theory that relates the rates of adaptation and measured effective population sizes to the properties of beneficial mutations. We obtained rough estimates of the average selection coefficients in haploids between 2% and 10% for these first selected mutations. Results were consistent with semi-dominant to dominant mutations in four environments and recessive to additive mutations in two other environments. These results are consistent with theory that predicts haploids should evolve faster than diploids at large population sizes.     

Adaptation genomics: the next generation

Understanding the genetics of how organisms adapt to changing environments is a fundamental topic in modern evolutionary ecology. The field is currently progressing rapidly because of advances in genomics technologies, especially DNA sequencing. The aim of this review is to first briefly summarise how next generation sequencing (NGS) has transformed our ability to identify the genes underpinning adaptation. We then demonstrate how the application of these genomic tools to ecological model species means that we can start addressing some of the questions that have puzzled ecological geneticists for decades such as: How many genes are involved in adaptation? What types of genetic variation are responsible for adaptation? Does adaptation utilise pre-existing genetic variation or does it require new mutations to arise following an environmental change?     

Haldane's sieve and adaptation from the standing genetic variation

We consider populations that adapt to a sudden environmental change by fixing alleles found at mutation-selection balance. In particular, we calculate probabilities of fixation for previously deleterious alleles, ignoring the input of new mutations. We find that "Haldane's sieve"--the bias against the establishment of recessive beneficial mutations--does not hold under these conditions. Instead probabilities of fixation are generally independent of dominance. We show that this result is robust to patterns of sex expression for both X-linked and autosomal loci. We further show that adaptive evolution is invariably slower at X-linked than autosomal loci when evolution begins from mutation-selection balance. This result differs from that obtained when adaptation uses new mutations, a finding that may have some bearing on recent attempts to distinguish between hitchhiking and background selection by contrasting the molecular population genetics of X-linked vs. autosomal loci. Last, we suggest a test to determine whether adaptation used new mutations or previously deleterious alleles from the standing genetic variation.     

Adaptation from standing genetic variation

Populations adapt to novel environments in two distinct ways: selection on pre-existing genetic variation and selection on new mutations. These alternative sources of beneficial alleles can result in different evolutionary dynamics and distinct genetic outcomes. Compared with new mutations, adaptation from standing genetic variation is likely to lead to faster evolution, the fixation of more alleles of small effect and the spread of more recessive alleles. There is potential to distinguish between adaptation from standing variation and that from new mutations by differences in the genomic signature of selection. Here we review these approaches and possible examples of adaptation from standing variation in natural populations. Understanding how the source of genetic variation affects adaptation will be integral for predicting how populations will respond to changing environments.     

The rate of adaptation in asexuals

I study the population genetics of adaptation in asexuals. I show that the rate of adaptive substitution in an asexual species or nonrecombining chromosome region is a bell-shaped function of the mutation rate: at some point, increasing the mutation rate decreases the rate of substitution. Curiously, the mutation rate that maximizes the rate of adaptation depends solely on the strength of selection against deleterious mutations. In particular, adaptation is fastest when the genomic rate of mutation, U, equals the harmonic mean of selection coefficients against deleterious mutations, where we assume that selection for favorable alleles is milder than that against deleterious ones. This simple result is independent of the shape of the distribution of effects among favorable and deleterious mutations, population size, and the action of clonal interference. In the course of this work, I derive an approximation to the probability of fixation of a favorable mutation in an asexual genome or nonrecombining chromosome region in which both favorable and deleterious mutations occur.     

Divergent evolution during an experimental adaptive radiation

How repeatable a process is evolution? Comparative studies of multicellular eukaryotes and experimental studies with unicellular prokaryotes document the repeated evolution of adaptive phenotypes during similar adaptive radiations, suggesting that the outcome of adaptive radiation is broadly reproducible. The goal of this study was to test this hypothesis by using phenotypic traits to infer the genetic basis of adaptation to simple carbon-limited environments in an extensive adaptive radiation. We used a clone of the bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens to found two sets of experimental lines. The first set of lines was allowed to adapt to one of 23 novel environments for 1100 generations while the second set of lines was allowed to accumulate mutations by drift for 2000 generations. All lines were then assayed in the 95 environments provided by Biolog microplates to determine the phenotypic consequences of selection and drift. Replicate selection lines propagated in a common environment evolved similar adaptive components of their phenotype but showed extensive variation in non-adaptive phenotypic traits. This variation in non-adaptive phenotypic traits primarily resulted from the ascendance of different beneficial mutations in different lines. We argue that these results reconcile experimental and comparative approaches to studying adaptation by demonstrating that the convergent phenotypic evolution that occurs during adaptive radiation may be associated with radically different sets of beneficial mutations.     

ADAPTATION TO DIFFERENT RATES OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN CHLAMYDOMONAS

We investigate how different rates of environmental change affect adaptive outcomes and dynamics by selecting Chlamydomonas populations for over 200 generations in environments where the rate of change varies. We find that slower rates of environmental change result in end populations that grow faster and pay a lower cost of adaptation than populations that adapt to a sudden change of the same magnitude. We detected partial selective sweeps in adapting populations by monitoring changes in marker frequency in each population. Although populations adapting to a sudden environmental change showed evidence of mutations of large effect segregating early on, populations adapting to slow rates of change showed patterns that were consistent with mutations of relatively small effect occurring at less predictable times. This work suggests that rates of environmental change may fundamentally alter adaptive dynamics and outcomes of adaptation by changing the size and timing of fitness increases. We suggest that using mutations of smaller effect during adaptation may result in lower levels of pleiotropy and historical constraints, which could in turn result in higher fitness by the end of the experiment.     

Evolution of pleiotropic costs in experimental populations

The fitness of populations adapting to new environments is expected to decline in different environments, but empirical studies often do not lend support for such adaptation costs. We test the idea that the initial fitness of the selected populations in the environment where the cost is estimated is key for interpreting tests of ecological trade‐offs. We isolated single clones of the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae every ~250 generations from replicate experimental lineages that had been selected during 5000 generations in a glucose‐limited environment. We then selected these clones in a galactose‐limited environment for ~120 generations. Finally, we estimated single‐clone fitness in both environments, before and after selection on galactose. The pleiotropic effects on glucose of selection on galactose evolved from positive to negative as fitness in glucose increased, providing strong support for the importance of initial fitness for determining the sign and magnitude of pleiotropic effects. This demonstrates that the sign of pleiotropic effects for fitness following adaptation to a new environment can change during long‐term adaptation to an original environment. We also found no relationship between the size of the fitness changes in galactose and glucose, such that pleiotropic effects in glucose became relatively smaller as the sizes of direct effects on galactose increased.     

Genetic correlations and sex‐specific adaptation in changing environments

Females and males have conflicting evolutionary interests. Selection favors the evolution of different phenotypes within each sex, yet divergence between the sexes is constrained by the shared genetic basis of female and male traits. Current theory predicts that such “sexual antagonism” should be common: manifesting rapidly during the process of adaptation, and slow in its resolution. However, these predictions apply in temporally stable environments. Environmental change has been shown empirically to realign the direction of selection acting on shared traits and thereby alleviate signals of sexually antagonistic selection. Yet there remains no theory for how common sexual antagonism should be in changing environments. Here, we analyze models of sex‐specific evolutionary divergence under directional and cyclic environmental change, and consider the impact of genetic correlations on long‐run patterns of sex‐specific adaptation. We find that environmental change often aligns directional selection between the sexes, even when they have divergent phenotypic optima. Nevertheless, some forms of environmental change generate persistent sexually antagonistic selection that is difficult to resolve. Our results reinforce recent empirical observations that changing environmental conditions alleviate conflict between males and females. They also generate new predictions regarding the scope for sexually antagonistic selection and its resolution in changing environments.     

Selection history and epistatic interactions impact dynamics of adaptation to novel environmental stresses

In rapidly changing environments, selection history may impact the dynamics of adaptation. Mutations selected in one environment may result in pleiotropic fitness trade-offs in subsequent novel environments, slowing the rates of adaptation. Epistatic interactions between mutations selected in sequential stressful environments may slow or accelerate subsequent rates of adaptation, depending on the nature of that interaction. We explored the dynamics of adaptation during sequential exposure to herbicides with different modes of action in Chlamydomonas reinhardtii. Evolution of resistance to two of the herbicides was largely independent of selection history. For carbetamide, previous adaptation to other herbicide modes of action positively impacted the likelihood of adaptation to this herbicide. Furthermore, while adaptation to all individual herbicides was associated with pleiotropic fitness costs in stress-free environments, we observed that accumulation of resistance mechanisms was accompanied by a reduction in overall fitness costs. We suggest that antagonistic epistasis may be a driving mechanism that enables populations to more readily adapt in novel environments. These findings highlight the potential for sequences of xenobiotics to facilitate the rapid evolution of multiple-drug and -pesticide resistance, as well as the potential for epistatic interactions between adaptive mutations to facilitate evolutionary rescue in rapidly changing environments.     

Fine‐scale temporal adaptation within a salmonid population: mechanism and consequences

We demonstrate a clear example of local adaptation of seasonal timing of spawning and embryo development. The consequence is a population of pink salmon that is segmented into spawning groups that use the same limited habitat. We synthesize published observations with results of new analyses to demonstrate that genetic variation of these traits results in survival differentials related to that variation, and that density‐dependent embryo mortality and seasonally variable juvenile mortality are a mechanism of selection. Most examples of local adaptation in natural systems depend on observed correlations between environments and fitness traits, but do not fully demonstrate local adaptation: that the trait is genetically determined, exhibits different fitness in common environments or across different environments, and its variation is mechanistically connected to fitness differences. The geographic or temporal scales of local adaptation often remain obscure. Here, we show that heritable, fine‐scale differences of timing of reproductive migration in a pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) resulted in temporal structure that persisted several generations; the differences enable a density‐dependent population to pack more spawners into limited spawning habitat, that is, enhance its fitness. A balanced trade‐off of survivals results because embryos from early‐migrating fish have a lower freshwater survival (harsh early physical conditions and disturbance by late spawners), but emigrant fry from late‐migrating fish have lower marine survivals (timing of their vernal emergence into the estuarine environment). Such fine‐scale local adaptations increase the genetic portfolio of the populations and may provide a buffer against the impacts of climate change.     

RUNAWAY COEVOLUTION: ADAPTATION TO HERITABLE AND NONHERITABLE ENVIRONMENTS

Populations evolve in response to the external environment, whether abiotic (e.g., climate) or biotic (e.g., other conspecifics). We investigated how adaptation to biotic, heritable environments differs from adaptation to abiotic, nonheritable environments. We found that, for the same selection coefficients, the coadaptive process between genes and heritable environments is much faster than genetic adaptation to an abiotic nonheritable environment. The increased rate of adaptation results from the positive association generated by reciprocal selection between the heritable environment and the genes responding to it. These associations result in a runaway process of adaptive coevolution, even when the genes creating the heritable environment and genes responding to the heritable environment are unlinked. Although tightening the degree of linkage accelerates the coadaptive process, the acceleration caused by a comparable amount of inbreeding is greater, because inbreeding has a cumulative effect on reducing functional recombination over generations. Our results suggest that that adaptation to local abiotic environmental variation may result in the rapid diversification of populations and subsequent reproductive isolation not directly but rather via its effects on heritable environments and the genes responding to them.     

ADAPTATION AND MALADAPTATION IN SELFING AND OUTCROSSING SPECIES: NEW MUTATIONS VERSUS STANDING VARIATION

Evolution of selfing from outcrossing recurrently occurred in many lineages, especially in flowering plants. Evolution of selfing induces dramatic changes in the population genetics functioning but its consequences on the dynamics of adaptation have been overlooked. We studied a simple one‐locus model of adaptation where a population experiences an environmental change at a given time. We first determined the effect of the mating system on the genetic bases and the speed of adaptation, focusing on the dominance of beneficial mutations and the respective part of standing variation and new mutations. Then, we assumed that the environmental change is associated with population decline to determine the effect of the mating system on the probability of population extinction. Extending previous results, we found that adaptation is more efficient and extinction less likely in outcrossers when beneficial mutations are dominant and codominant and when standing variation plays a significant role in adaptation. However, given adaptation does occur, it is usually more rapid in selfers than in outcrossers. Our results bear implications for the evolution of the selfing syndrome, the dynamics of the domestication process, and the dead‐end hypothesis that posits that selfing lineages are doomed to extinction on the long run.     

Estimating the distribution of selection coefficients from phylogenetic data with applications to mitochondrial and viral DNA

The distribution of selection coefficients of new mutations is of key interest in population genetics. In this paper we explore how codon-based likelihood models can be used to estimate the distribution of selection coefficients of new amino acid replacement mutations from phylogenetic data. To obtain such estimates we assume that all mutations at the same site have the same selection coefficient. We first estimate the distribution of selection coefficients from two large viral data sets under the assumption that the viral population size is the same along all lineages of the phylogeny and that the selection coefficients vary among sites. We then implement several new models in which the lineages of the phylogeny may have different population sizes. We apply the new models to a data set consisting of the coding regions from eight primate mitochondrial genomes. The results suggest that there might be little power to determine the exact shape of the distribution of selection coefficient but that the normal and gamma distributions fit the data significantly better than the exponential distribution.     

Adaptive evolution in invasive species

Many emerging invasive species display evidence of rapid adaptation. Contemporary genetic studies demonstrate that adaptation to novel environments can occur within 20 generations or less, indicating that evolutionary processes can influence invasiveness. However, the source of genetic or epigenetic variation underlying these changes remains uncharacterised. Here, we review the potential for rapid adaptation from standing genetic variation and from new mutations, and examine four types of evolutionary change that might promote or constrain rapid adaptation during the invasion process. Understanding the source of variation that contributes to adaptive evolution in invasive plants is important for predicting future invasion scenarios, identifying candidate genes involved in invasiveness, and, more generally, for understanding how populations can evolve rapidly in response to novel and changing environments.     

Mutability of demographic noise in microbial range expansions

Demographic noise, the change in the composition of a population due to random birth and death events, is an important driving force in evolution because it reduces the efficacy of natural selection. Demographic noise is typically thought to be set by the population size and the environment, but recent experiments with microbial range expansions have revealed substantial strain-level differences in demographic noise under the same growth conditions. Many genetic and phenotypic differences exist between strains; to what extent do single mutations change the strength of demographic noise? To investigate this question, we developed a high-throughput method for measuring demographic noise in colonies without the need for genetic manipulation. By applying this method to 191 randomly-selected single gene deletion strains from the E. coli Keio collection, we find that a typical single gene deletion mutation decreases demographic noise by 8% (maximal decrease: 81%). We find that the strength of demographic noise is an emergent trait at the population level that can be predicted by colony-level traits but not cell-level traits. The observed differences in demographic noise from single gene deletions can increase the establishment probability of beneficial mutations by almost an order of magnitude (compared to in the wild type). Our results show that single mutations can substantially alter adaptation through their effects on demographic noise and suggest that demographic noise can be an evolvable trait of a population.Subject terms: Bacterial evolution, Population genetics, Population dynamics, Population genetics, Biofilms     

The number of mutations selected during adaptation in a laboratory population of Saccharomyces cerevisiae

There is currently limited empirical and theoretical support for the prevailing view that adaptation typically results from the fixation of many mutations, each with small phenotypic effects. Recent theoretical work suggests that, on the contrary, most of the phenotypic change during an episode of adaptation can result from the selection of a few mutations with relatively large effects. I studied the genetics of adaptation by populations of budding yeast to a culture regime of daily hundredfold dilution and transfer in a glucose-limited minimal liquid medium. A single haploid genotype isolated after 2000 generations showed a 76% fitness increase over its ancestor. This evolved haploid was crossed with its ancestor, and tetrad dissections were used to isolate a complete series of six meiotic tetrads. The Castle-Wright estimator of the number of loci at which adaptive mutations had been selected, modified to account for linkage and variation among mutations in the size of their effect, is 4.4. The estimate for a second haploid genotype, isolated from a separate population and with a fitness gain of 60%, was 2.7 loci. Backcrosses to the ancestor with the first evolved genotype support the inference that adaptation resulted primarily from two to five mutations. These backcrosses also indicated that deleterious mutations had hitchhiked with adaptive mutations in this evolved genotype.     

Predicting population genetic change in an autocorrelated random environment: Insights from a large automated experiment

Most natural environments exhibit a substantial component of random variation, with a degree of temporal autocorrelation that defines the color of environmental noise. Such environmental fluctuations cause random fluctuations in natural selection, affecting the predictability of evolution. But despite long-standing theoretical interest in population genetics in stochastic environments, there is a dearth of empirical estimation of underlying parameters of this theory. More importantly, it is still an open question whether evolution in fluctuating environments can be predicted indirectly using simpler measures, which combine environmental time series with population estimates in constant environments. Here we address these questions by using an automated experimental evolution approach. We used a liquid-handling robot to expose over a hundred lines of the micro-alga Dunaliella salina to randomly fluctuating salinity over a continuous range, with controlled mean, variance, and autocorrelation. We then tracked the frequencies of two competing strains through amplicon sequencing of nuclear and choloroplastic barcode sequences. We show that the magnitude of environmental fluctuations (determined by their variance), but also their predictability (determined by their autocorrelation), had large impacts on the average selection coefficient. The variance in frequency change, which quantifies randomness in population genetics, was substantially higher in a fluctuating environment. The reaction norm of selection coefficients against constant salinity yielded accurate predictions for the mean selection coefficient in a fluctuating environment. This selection reaction norm was in turn well predicted by environmental tolerance curves, with population growth rate against salinity. However, both the selection reaction norm and tolerance curves underestimated the variance in selection caused by random environmental fluctuations. Overall, our results provide exceptional insights into the prospects for understanding and predicting genetic evolution in randomly fluctuating environments.     

Evolutionary potential of Chamaecrista fasciculata in relation to climate change. I. Clinal patterns of selection along an environmental gradient in the great plains

Climate change will alter natural selection on native plant populations. Little information is available to predict how selection will change in the future and how populations will respond. Insight can be obtained by comparing selection regimes in current environments to selection regimes in environments similar to those predicted for the future. To mimic predicted temporal change in climate, three natural populations of the annual legume Chamaecrista fasciculata were sampled from a climate gradient in the Great Plains and progeny of formal crosses were reciprocally planted back into common gardens across this climate gradient. In each garden, native populations produced significantly more seed than the other populations, providing strong evidence of local adaptation. Phenotypic selection analysis conducted by site showed that plants with slower reproductive development, more leaves, and thicker leaves were favored in the most southern garden. Evidence of clinal variation in selection regimes was also found; selection coefficients were ordered according to the latitude of the common gardens. The adaptive value of native traits was indicated by selection toward the mean of local populations. Repeated clinal patterns in linear and nonlinear selection coefficients among populations and within and between sites were found. To the extent that temporal change in climate into the future will parallel the differences in selection across this spatial gradient, this study suggests that selection regimes will be displaced northward and different trait values will be favored in natural populations.