Selection on flowering time in Mediterranean high-mountain plants under global warming

Under climate warming, plants will undergo novel selective pressures to adjust reproductive timing. Adjustment between reproductive phenology and environment is expected to be higher in arctic and alpine habitats because the growing season is considerably short. As early- and late-flowering species reproduce under very different environmental conditions, selective pressures on flowering phenology and potential effects of climate change are likely to differ between them. However, there is no agreement on the magnitude of the benefits and costs of early- vs. late-flowering species under a global warming scenario. In spite of its relevance, phenotypic selection on flowering phenology has rarely been explored in alpine plants and never in Mediterranean high mountain species, where selective pressures are very different due to the summer drought imposed over the short growth season. We hypothesized that late-flowering plants in Mediterranean mountains should present stronger selective pressures towards early onset of reproduction than early-flowering species, because less water is available in the soil as growing season progresses. We performed selection analyses on flowering onset and duration in two high mountain species of contrasting phenology. Since phenotypic selection can be highly context-dependent, we studied several populations of each species for 2 years, covering their local altitudinal ranges and their different microhabitats. Surrogates of biotic selective agents, like fruitset for pollinators and flower and fruit loss for flower and seed predators, were included in the analysis. Differences between the early- and the late-flowering species were less than expected. A consistent negative correlational selection of flowering onset and duration was found affecting plant fitness, i.e., plants that bloomed earlier flowered for longer periods improving plant fitness. Nevertheless, the late-flowering species may experience higher risks under climate warming because in extremely warm and dry years the earlier season does not bring about a longer flowering duration due to summer drought.     

Seasonal change in a pollinator community and the maintenance of style length variation in Mertensia fusiformis (Boraginaceae)

Background and Aims

In sub-alpine habitats, patchiness in snowpack produces marked, small-scale variation in flowering phenology. Plants in early- and late-melting patches are therefore likely to experience very different conditions during their flowering periods. Mertensia fusiformis is an early-flowering perennial that varies conspicuously in style length within and among populations. The hypothesis that style length represents an adaptation to local flowering time was tested. Specifically, it was hypothesized that lower air temperatures and higher frost risk would favour short-styled plants (with stigmas more shielded by corollas) in early-flowering patches, but that the pollen-collecting behaviour of flower visitors in late-flowering patches would favour long-styled plants.

Methods

Floral morphology was measured, temperatures were monitored and pollinators were observed in several matched pairs of early and late populations. To evaluate effects of cold temperatures on plants of different style lengths, experimental pollinations were conducted during mornings (warm) and evenings (cool), and on flowers that either had or had not experienced a prior frost. The effectiveness of different pollinators was quantified as seed set following single visits to plants with relatively short or long styles.

Key Results

Late-flowering populations experienced warmer temperatures than early-flowering populations and a different suite of pollinators. Nectar-foraging bumble-bee queens and male solitary bees predominated in early populations, whereas pollen-collecting female solitary bees were more numerous in later sites. Pollinators differed significantly in their abilities to transfer pollen to stigmas at different heights, in accordance with our prediction. However, temperature and frost sensitivity did not differ between long- and short-styled plants. Although plants in late-flowering patches tended to have longer styles than those in early patches, this difference was not consistent.

Conclusions

Seasonal change in pollinator-mediated selection on style length may help maintain variation in this trait in M. fusiformis, but adaptation to local flowering time is not apparent. The prevalence of short styles in these populations requires further explanation.     

Phytochrome B and at Least One Other Phytochrome Mediate the Accelerated Flowering Response of Arabidopsis thaliana L. to Low Red/Far-Red Ratio

We have investigated the involvement of phytochrome B in the early-flowering response of Arabidopsis thaliana L. seedlings to low red:far-red (R/FR) ratio light conditions. The phytochrome B-deficient hy3 (phyB) mutant is early flowering, and in this regard it resembles the shade-avoidance phenotype of its isogenic wild type. Seedlings carrying the hy2 mutation, resulting in a deficiency of phytochrome chromophore and hence of active phytochromes, also flower earlier than wild-type plants. Whereas hy3 or hy2 seedlings show only a slight acceleration of flowering in response to low R/FR ratio, seedlings that are doubly homozygous for both mutations flower earlier than seedlings carrying either phytochrome-related mutation alone. This additive effect clearly indicates the involvement of one or more phytochrome species in addition to phytochrome B in the flowering response as well as indicating the presence of some functional phytochrome B in hy2 seedlings. Seedlings that are homozygous for the hy3 mutation and one of the fca, fwa, or co late-flowering mutations display a pronounced early-flowering response to low R/FR ratio. A similar response to low R/FR ratio is displayed by seedlings doubly homozygous for the hy2 mutation and any one of the late-flowering mutations. Thus, placing the hy3 or hy2 mutations into a late-flowering background has the effect of uncovering a flowering response to low R/FR ratio. Seedlings that are triply homozygous for the hy3, hy2 mutations and a late-flowering mutation flower earlier than the double mutants and do not respond to low R/FR ratio. Thus, the observed flowering responses to low R/FR ratio in phytochrome B-deficient mutants can be attributed to the action of at least one other phytochrome species.     

Inheritance of plant height and flowering time in the wild potato species,Solanum verrucosum Schlechtd

The inheritance was studied of plant height and flowering time in a hybrid between the short-stemmed, late-flowering introduction CPC 1339 of Solanum verrucosum and the tall-stemmed, early-flowering introduction PI 195172 of the same species. The range of plant height in CPC 1339 served as a criterion in classifying the populations into tall and short plants from measurements at four growth stages. The averages of these four measurements were used in the genetic analysis. The observed ratios fit a hypothesis of two dominant complementary genes for tall stem. Late flowering of CPC 1339 appears recessive to early flowering. The segregation ratios can be explained on the basis of two complementary dominant genes for early flowering.     

Impact of global warming on a group of related species and their hybrids: cherry tree (Rosaceae) flowering at Mt. Takao, Japan

Climate change is affecting plant phenology worldwide. Phenological responses vary among species, but it is not clear how responses differ among closely related species. We examined a 25-yr record (1981-2005) of flowering times for 97 trees, representing 17 species and hybrids of cherry (Cerasus sp. or Prunus sp.) grown at Mt. Takao, in Tokyo, Japan. The cherry trees flowered earlier over time, by an average of 5.5 d over the 25-yr study. Earlier flowering was explained largely by a 1.8°C increase in February-March mean monthly temperatures. Most species and hybrids flowered 3-5 d earlier for each 1°C increase in temperature, but early-flowering taxa flowered as much as 9 d earlier for each 1°C increase in temperature. Flowering durations and differences in flowering times among species were greater in warm years than in cold years. Species and individual trees also flowered longer in warm years. These results show that the flowering times of closely related species may change similarly in response to climate change, but that early-flowering species may diverge from the overall trend in a predictable way. Such changes in flowering may affect gene flow and pollination as the length of the flowering season increases.     

Consequences of variation in flowering time within and among individuals of Mertensia fusiformis (Boraginaceae), an early spring wildflower

Climate change is causing many plants to flower earlier in spring, exposing them to novel selection pressures, including-potentially-pollinator shortages. Over 2 years that contrasted in timing of flowering onset, we studied reproductive strategies, pollen limitation, and selection on flowering time in Mertensia fusiformis, a self-incompatible, spring-flowering perennial. Plants opened most of their flowers early in the flowering period, especially in 2007, the early year; but selection favored early-flowering individuals only in 2008. However, resource allocation to early vs. late seed production was flexible: In 2008, but not 2007, early flowers on a plant produced more and heavier seeds. Late flowers were capable of equal seed production if fertilization of early ovules was prevented, suggesting that late flowers serve a bet-hedging function. Evidence for pollen limitation was weak, although there was a tendency for early flowers to be pollen-limited in 2007 and for late flowers to be pollen-limited in 2008. Poor reproductive success in 2007 was likely attributable less to pollen limitation than to frost damage to flowers. We suggest that plasticity in floral longevity and resource allocation among flowers will make this species resilient to short-term pollinator deficits; whether this will help or hinder future adaptation is unclear.     

The gentian orthologs of the FT/TFL1 gene family control floral initiation in Gentiana

Gentians are herbaceous perennials blooming in summer through autumn. Although they are popular ornamental flowers in Japan, the regulation of their timing of flowering has not been studied. We identified and characterized gentian orthologs of the Arabidopsis FT/TFL1 gene family to elucidate the mechanisms of flowering initiation. We isolated three gentian orthologs of FT and TFL1, denoted GtFT1, GtFT2 and GtTFL1. Since up-regulation of GtFT1 and GtFT2 as well as down-regulation of GtTFL1 promoted floral initiation in gentian plantlets, these genes affected floral initiation in a similar way to Arabidopsis FT and TFL1. The expression levels of GtFT1 and GtFT2 in leaves of late-flowering gentian increased prior to floral initiation, whereas GtTFL1 was highly expressed in shoot apical meristem at the vegetative stage and decreased drastically just before flowering initiation. Comparison of gene expression patterns showed that GtFT1 expression increased earlier in early-flowering than in late-flowering gentian, whereas the timing of the increase in GtFT2 expression was similar in early- and late-flowering plants. The GtTFL1 expression in early-flowering gentian was extremely low throughout the vegetative and reproductive stages. These results indicated that either the up-regulation of GtFT1 or the down-regulation of GtTFL1 may determine flowering time. Furthermore, we found that early-flowering but not late-flowering gentians have a 320 bp insertion in the promoter region of GtTFL1. Thus, the negligible expression of GtTFL1 in early-flowering lines may be due to this insertion, resulting in a shortened vegetative stage.     

Genetic and physiological analysis of biennialism in Hyoscyamus niger

A genetic and physiological study of biennialism in the diploid selfer Hyoscyamus niger (black henbane), an obligate long-day plant, is described. Three annual and two biennial accessions that were homozygous for their respective growth habits were selected. The early-flowering trait of two annual accessions was dominant over the late-flowering trait of the third annual accession. The late-flowering annual accession, but not the early-flowering ones, responded to vernalization. Two biennial accessions remained vegetative after more than 1 year in soil and thus had an obligate vernalization requirement. Crosses between annual and biennial accessions showed that biennialism was conferred through a single dominant gene. However, plants containing only one copy of this dominant gene were transformed from biennials into very late-flowering winter-annual plants that responded more rapidly to vernalization than biennials. Taken together, these results indicated that there were allelic differences in photoperiod-specific flowering time genes and that biennialism was a dose-dependent trait with incomplete dominance. Models for flowering time regulation in henbane involving photoperiod-, vernalization-, and most likely gibberellin-specific pathways are discussed.     

Variable flowering phenology and pollinator use in a community suggest future phenological mismatch

Recent anthropogenic climate change is strongly associated with average shifts toward earlier seasonal timing of activity (phenology) in temperate-zone species. Shifts in phenology have the potential to alter ecological interactions, to the detriment of one or more interacting species. Recent models predict that detrimental phenological mismatch may increasingly occur between plants and their pollinators. One way to test this prediction is to examine data from ecological communities that experience large annual weather fluctuations. Taking this approach, we analyzed interactions over a four-year period among 132 plant species and 665 pollinating insect species within a Mediterranean community. For each plant species we recorded onset and duration of flowering and number of pollinator species. Flowering onset varied among years, and a year of earlier flowering of a species tended to be a year of fewer species pollinating its flowers. This relationship was attributable principally to early-flowering species, suggesting that shifts toward earlier phenology driven by climate change may reduce pollination services due to phenological mismatch. Earlier flowering onset of a species also was associated with prolonged flowering duration, but it is not certain that this will counterbalance any negative effects of lower pollinator species richness on plant reproductive success. Among plants with different life histories, annuals were more severely affected by flowering–pollinator mismatches than perennials. Specialized plant species (those attracting a smaller number of pollinator species) did not experience disproportionate interannual fluctuations in phenology. Thus they do not appear to be faced with disproportionate fluctuations in pollinator species richness, contrary to the expectation that specialists are at greatest risk of losing mutualistic interactions because of climate change.     

Constraints on flowering phenology in a phryganic (East Mediterranean shrub) community

The phenological pattern of flowering at the community level was studied in a Greek phryganic ecosystem near Athens for 4 consecutive years. Flowering is strongly seasonal: 80% of the insect-pollinated flora, which consists of 133 species, blooms between February and June. There is a variably expressed secondary flowering period in autumn. The pollinating fauna follows a strongly correlated pattern of abundance. Two types of plants were distinguished: pauciflorous species bearing <10 flowers that are large compared to the plant body, and multiflorous species with many small flowers. Pauciflorous species flower in the winter half of the year, while multiflorous species flower mainly in the summer half. The mean flower life spans are 9 and 3 days, respectively. The duration of flowering (DF) for each species is 55 days on average, which is long compared to other communities. The DF shows year-to-year variations, concomitant with the vicissitudes of the climate. The start of flowering of a species is statistically correlated with the temperature in the previous month, not with rainfall; its end date of flowering only partly compensates for the time gained or lost. DF is maximal in winter. The average flower life span of species flowering at any given date varies strongly and independently of the average DF. We tested the hypothesis that flowering phenology is set by phylogenetic and life form constraints. This could not be corroborated for phylogeny, evidently because of the overriding influence of the mediterranean climate, and probably also for biogeographical reasons. In contrast, life forms and multiflorous and pauciflorous species show strong differences. Many (51) of the species are therophytes; we tested the hypothesis that because of their annual habit they would be more dependent on pollination than perennials. Thus we anticipated that therophytic species would be differentiated from perennials in their flowering phenologies. This is not corroborated. We therefore conclude that the seed bank plays a role that is analogous to that of a perennial plant body.     

Late-flowering genes interact with early-flowering genes to regulate flowering time in Arabidopsis thaliana.

To investigate the genetic mechanisms regulating the transition from the vegetative to reproductive growth in Arabidopsis, double mutants between three different early-flowering mutants, early flowering 1-1, 2-1, 3-1, (elf 1-1, 2-1, 3-1) and five different late-flowering mutants, gi-1, ft-1, fwa-1, ld-1, and fca-9, were constructed and phenotypes analyzed. Double mutants in all combinations displayed the late-flowering phenotypes which resembled their respective late-flowering parents in both flowering time and the number of vegetative leaves produced. The results indicate that five late-flowering mutants are epistatic to all three early-flowering mutants tested here. This epistatic relationship suggests that ELF1, ELF2, and ELF3 genes function upstream of these five late-flowering genes no matter if they are functioning in autonomous or photoperiod pathways. These three early-flowering genes may negatively modify the activity of most late-flowering genes to influence the time of the vegetative-to-reproductive transition in Arabidopsis.     

Direct and indirect effects of episodic frost on plant growth and reproduction in subalpine wildflowers

Frost is an important episodic event that damages plant tissues through the formation of ice crystals at or below freezing temperatures. In montane regions, where climate change is expected to cause earlier snow melt but may not change the last frost‐free day of the year, plants that bud earlier might be directly impacted by frost through damage to flower buds and reproductive structures. However, the indirect effects of frost mediated through changes in plant–pollinator interactions have rarely been explored. We examined the direct and pollinator‐mediated indirect effects of frost on three wildflower species in southwestern Colorado, USA, Delphinium barbeyi (Ranunculaceae), Erigeron speciosus (Asteraceae), and Polemonium foliosissimum (Polemoniaceae), by simulating moderate (?1 to ?5°C) frost events in early spring in plants in situ. Subsequently, we measured plant growth, and upon flowering measured flower morphology and phenology. Throughout the flowering season, we monitored pollinator visitation and collected seeds to measure plant reproduction. We found that frost had species‐specific direct and indirect effects. Frost had direct effects on two of the three species. Frost significantly reduced flower size, total flowers produced, and seed production of Erigeron. Furthermore, frost reduced aboveground plant survival and seed production for Polemonium. However, we found no direct effects of frost on Delphinium. When we considered the indirect impacts of frost mediated through changes in pollinator visitation, one species, Erigeron, incurred indirect, negative effects of frost on plant reproduction through changes in floral traits and pollinator visitation, along with direct effects. Overall, we found that flowering plants exhibited species‐specific direct and pollinator‐mediated indirect responses to frost, thus suggesting that frost may play an important role in affecting plant communities under climate change.     

Changes in flowering and abundance of Delphinium nuttallianum (Ranunculaceae) in response to a subalpine climate warming experiment

High‐altitude and high‐latitude sites are expected to be very sensitive to global warming, because the biological activity of most plants is restricted by the length of the short snow‐free season, which is determined by climate. Long‐term observational studies in subalpine meadows of the Colorado Rocky Mountains have shown a strong positive correlation between snowpack and flower production by the forb Delphinium nuttallianum. If a warmer climate reduces annual snowfall in this region then global warming might reduce fitness in D. nuttallianum. In this article we report effects of experimental warming on the abundance and flower production of D. nuttallianum. Plant abundance (both flowering and vegetative plants) was slightly greater on warmed than control plots prior to initiation of the warming treatment in 1991. Since 1994 experimental warming has had a negative effect on D. nuttallianum flower production, reducing both the abundance of flowering plants and the total number of flowers per plant. Flower bud abortion was higher in the heated plots than the controls only in 1994 and 1999. Results from both the warming experiment and analyses of unmanipulated long‐term plots suggest that global warming may affect the fecundity of D. nuttallianum, which may have cascading effects on the pollinators that depend on it and on the fecundity of plants that share similar pollinators.     

雌雄异熟植物露蕊乌头开花时间对雌雄功能期及表型性别的影响

开花时间决定了植物雌雄功能的交配机会, 最终影响繁殖成功。交配环境假说认为雌雄异熟植物开花时间的差异能引起植物表型性别的变异, 改变种群内的交配环境, 影响植物对雌雄功能的最佳性分配。为了研究开花时间对雌雄异熟植物的雌雄性别时期及表型性别的影响, 本文以毛茛科雄性先熟植物露蕊乌头(Aconitum gymnandrum)为实验材料, 记录了雄性和雌性功能期, 分析了植株开花时间、花的雌雄功能期和表型性别的关系。结果表明: 在植物同一花序内, 较晚开放的花有更长的雄性期和更短的雌性期, 性分配在时间上偏雄。雌雄功能期在时间上的相对分配随植物开花时间的变化表现出相似的趋势： 较晚开的花或较晚开花的个体, 花的雄性功能期相对于雌性功能期更长, 在时间上更偏向雄性功能。而且, 开花时间的差异影响种群内花的性比和植物个体的表型性别动态。随着开花时间由早到晚的变化, 种群内早期以雄花为主,末期以雌花为主, 种群内性别环境由偏雄向偏雌变化, 因此植株个体的平均表型性别则从偏雌转向偏雄。本文结果支持交配环境假说, 雄性先熟的露蕊乌头开花早期, 种群内花的性别比偏雄, 种群表型性别环境偏雄, 因而植物个体平均表型性别偏雌, 性别分配(即时间分配)偏向雌性功能, 而晚开花个体的平均性别偏雄, 更偏向雄性功能的分配。     

Flowering phenology as a functional trait in a tallgrass prairie

? The timing of flowering is a critical component of the ecology of plants and has the potential to structure plant communities. Yet, we know little about how the timing of flowering relates to other functional traits, species abundance, and average environmental conditions. ? Here, we assessed first flowering dates (FFDs) in a North American tallgrass prairie (Konza Prairie) for 431 herbaceous species and compared them with a series of other functional traits, environmental metrics, and species abundance across ecological contrasts. ? The pattern of FFDs among the species of the Konza grassland was shaped by local climate, can be linked to resource use by species, and patterns of species abundance across the landscape. Peak FFD for the community occurred when soils were typically both warm and wet, while relatively few species began flowering when soils tended to be the driest. Compared with late-flowering species, species that flowered early had lower leaf tissue density and were more abundant on uplands than lowlands. ? Flowering phenology can contribute to the structuring of grassland communities, but was largely independent of most functional traits. Therefore, selection for flowering phenology may be independent of general resource strategies.     

Factors related to the inter‐annual variation in plants' pollination generalization levels within a community

The number of pollinators of a plant species is considered a measure of its ecological generalization and may have important evolutionary and ecological implications. Many pollination studies report inter‐annual fluctuations in the composition of pollinators to particular species. However, the factors causing such variation are still poorly understood. Here we investigate how flowering duration and plant and pollinator assemblages influenced the inter‐annual changes in the functional generalization level of the 20 most common plant species of a semi‐natural meadow in southern Norway. We also studied the extent to which changes in generalization levels were controlled by flower‐shape and flowering time. Large inter‐annual changes in generalization levels were common and there was no relationship between the generalization level one year and the following. Generalization level of particular plant species increased with flowering duration, sampling effort, and the abundance of managed honeybees in the community. Generalization level decreased with the flowering synchrony between the focal plant species and the rest of the plant community and with the focal species’ own abundance, which we attribute to inter‐specific competition for pollinator attraction and foraging decisions made by pollinators. Plants with different flower‐shapes and flowering times did not differ in the extent of inter‐annual variation in generalization levels. Most studies do not consider the effect of the plant community on the generalization level of particular plant species. We show here that both pollinator and plant assemblages can affect the inter‐annual variation in generalization levels of plant species. Studies like ours will help to understand how pollination interactions are structured at the community level, and the ecological and evolutionary consequences that these inter‐annual changes in generalization levels may have.     

Bumblebees at an alpine site in northern Sweden: temporal development, population size, and plant utilization

The bumblebee community in an alpine valley in northern Sweden was studied for two seasons. Only two species of bumblebees, Bombus alpinus and B. hyperboreus. are common at the site. Bombus hyperhoreus is an obligate nest parasite on B. alpinus : the latter species is four times more abundant than the former. The number of captures on any given day was very low. However, the number of queens foraging in the area was estimated by a mark-reacapture method to ca 350 specimens, indicating that the queens forage over large areas. The dates for capturing queens carrying pollen in their corbiculae and the emergence of workers and males indicate that the queens only have time to produce one batch (or possibly two overlapping batches) of workers. The utilization of different plant species corresponds well with their flowering phenology at the site. The unspecialized flowers of Saxifraga oppositifolia are the main pollen and nectar source in the early part of the season. The bumblebees switch to Astragalus alpinus and Bartsia alpina as soon as they come into flower: these species show a typical bee pollination syndrome, the corbicular loads most commonly consisted of 91-100% of pollen from a single species. The change in flower utilization and the composition of the corbicular loads give no support for the hypothesis that aretie bumblebees should be more generalistic in their foraging than temperate species. The preference for Astragalus and Bartsia will probably have an effect on outcrossing in late-flowering specimens of Saxifraga oppositifolia , which has a very extended flowering period.     

Effects of flowering plant density on pollinator visitation, pollen receipt, and seed production in Delphinium barbeyi (Ranunculaceae)

Variation in flowering plant density can have conflicting effects on pollination and seed production. Dense flower patches may attract more pollinators, but flowers in those patches may also compete for pollinator visits and abiotic resources. We examined how natural and experimental conspecific flowering plant density affected pollen receipt and seed production in a protandrous, bumble bee-pollinated wildflower, Delphinium barbeyi (Ranunculaceae). We also compared floral sex ratios, pollinator visitation rates, and pollen limitation of seed set from early to late in the season to determine whether these factors mirrored seasonal changes in pollen receipt and seed production. Pollen receipt increased with natural flowering plant density, while seed production increased across lower densities and decreased across higher flower densities. Experimental manipulation of flowering plant density did not affect pollinator visitation rate, pollen receipt, or seed production. Although pollinator visitation rate increased 10-fold from early to late in the season, pollen receipt and seed set decreased over the season. Seed set was never pollen-limited. Thus, despite widespread effects of flowering plant density on plant reproduction in other species, the effects of conspecific flowering plant density on D. barbeyi pollination and seed production are minor.     

Flowering phenology in a species-rich temperate grassland is sensitive to warming but not elevated CO2

* Flowering is a critical stage in plant life cycles, and changes might alter processes at the species, community and ecosystem levels. Therefore, likely flowering-time responses to global change drivers are needed for predictions of global change impacts on natural and managed ecosystems. * Here, the impact of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) (550 micromol mol(-1)) and warming (+2 masculineC) is reported on flowering times in a native, species-rich, temperate grassland in Tasmania, Australia in both 2004 and 2005. * Elevated [CO2] did not affect average time of first flowering in either year, only affecting three out of 23 species. Warming reduced time to first flowering by an average of 19.1 d in 2004, acting on most species, but did not significantly alter flowering time in 2005, which might be related to the timing of rainfall. Elevated [CO2] and warming treatments did not interact on flowering time. * These results show elevated [CO2] did not alter average flowering time or duration in this grassland; neither did it alter the response to warming. Therefore, flowering phenology appears insensitive to increasing [CO2] in this ecosystem, although the response to warming varies between years but can be strong.     

Long‐term increases in tropical flowering activity across growth forms in response to rising CO2 and climate change

Mounting evidence suggests that anthropogenic global change is altering plant species composition in tropical forests. Fewer studies, however, have focused on long‐term trends in reproductive activity, in part because of the lack of data from tropical sites. Here, we analyze a 28‐year record of tropical flower phenology in response to anthropogenic climate and atmospheric change. We show that a multidecadal increase in flower activity is most strongly associated with rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations using yearly aggregated data. Compared to significant climatic factors, CO₂ had on average an approximately three‐, four‐, or fivefold stronger effect than rainfall, solar radiation, and the Multivariate ENSO Index, respectively. Peaks in flower activity were associated with greater solar radiation and lower rainfall during El Niño years. The effect of atmospheric CO₂ on flowering has diminished over the most recent decade for lianas and canopy trees, whereas flowering of midstory trees and shrub species continued to increase with rising CO₂. Increases in flowering were accompanied by a lengthening of flowering duration for canopy and midstory trees. Understory treelets did not show increases in flowering but did show increases in duration. Given that atmospheric CO₂ will likely continue to climb over the next century, a long‐term increase in flowering activity may persist in some growth forms until checked by nutrient limitation or by climate change through rising temperatures, increasing drought frequency and/or increasing cloudiness and reduced insolation.