Cervical screening in Perth and Kinross since introduction of the new contract.

OBJECTIVE--To determine changes in the cervical screening service since the introduction of the new general practitioner contract on 1 April 1990. DESIGN--Analysis of computerised records of cervical screening both before and after introduction of the new contract. SETTING--General practices in Perth and Kinross Unit, Tayside. PATIENTS--A total of 30,071 women aged 21-60 on 26 general practitioner partnership lists. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Percentage average of target population for cervical screening in each practice for first three quarters on introduction of the contract. RESULTS--Perth and Kinross Unit completed a computerised cervical screening call programme in July 1989, which produced an increase from 71% to 78% in the mean percentage of women aged 20-60 who had had cervical smear tests within 5.5 years. Six months after the introduction of the new general practitioner contract the mean population coverage was increased to 85% in women aged 21-60 and only four practices had not attained the 80% upper target compared with 10 on 1 April 1990. Detailed examination of randomly selected practices immediately before the new contract was introduced showed an average artificial list inflation of 4.3% in health board records when compared with practice records, a hysterectomy rate of 6.2%, and an additional 3% of women who were considered to be ineligible for smear testing due to putative virginity or illness or infirmity, or both. There was a considerable shift away from use of well woman clinics (2.7% of smears in 1990 compared with 5.6% in 1988) for taking cervical smears, potentially threatening the long term viability of the clinics. CONCLUSION--The introduction of the new contract for general practitioners has brought about a further sustained increase in population coverage for cervical screening in a small Scottish unit with a stable population, well motivated general practitioners, and a fully integrated computerised call and recall system based on the community health index. To optimise the screening service revision of the targets levels is necessary.     

How complete can cervical screening be? The outcome of a call screening programme for women aged 20–60 years in Perth and Kinross

In this paper a computer system for cervical screening call and recall based on the Community Health Index (CHI) population data-base is described. It allows the unscreened population to be identified and located on an individual general practice basis. The results of the call programme on 9517 women aged 20-60 years listed on the CHI and with no record of a cervical smear is described. There was a 24% smear uptake in the call programme which meant that after the call programme the total population cover had risen from 71% to 78%. In addition, if women with a valid reason are excluded, and the data-base corrected for women no longer in the area, the true cover rises to 88%. An analysis of the percentage cover in each GP practice is described with the implications for implementation of screening targets for primary care.     

Six years' audit of laboratory workload and rates of referral for colposcopy in a cervical screening programme in three districts.

OBJECTIVE--To determine laboratory workload and rates of referral for colposcopy in a three district cervical screening programme during 1983-9 to assess the feasibility of accommodating call up of all women at risk, recall at three year intervals (now five year intervals), and investigation of women with all degrees of abnormality. DESIGN--Analysis of computerised screening histories dating back to 1977 of women screened in the Avon cervical screening programme. SETTING--Three district health authorities covering the population of Bristol and Weston-super-Mare, comprising 800,000 people, of whom 250,000 were female residents aged 20 to 64. SUBJECTS--196,977 Women aged 20 to 64 screened in cervical screening programme since 1983. RESULTS--Laboratory workload devoted to follow up of women with abnormalities increased sharply between 1987-8 and 1988-9, with increases of 54% (from 2075 to 3196) in the number of smears for follow up of severe dyskaryosis and invasive cancer, 40% (from 1925 to 2695) for mild and moderate dyskaryosis, and 49% (from 1793 to 2677) for borderline change. The increases were partly explained by the introduction in April 1988 of protocols for follow up and investigation based on guidance in an intercollegiate working party report. The proportion of women with mild and moderate dyskaryosis who were recommended for referral for colposcopy increased steadily from 9.9% in 1983-4 to 79.9% in 1988-9, and for borderline change the proportions were 3.5% and 13.6% respectively. Of all women tested in 1988-9, referral for colposcopy was recommended in 3%. CONCLUSIONS--The increase in laboratory follow up work identified, if it continued, could result in half of existing laboratory capacity in Avon being devoted to follow up work by 1993, with little prospect of maintaining call, recall, and quality control. Investigation of all women with minor cytological abnormalities is neither justifiable nor sustainable and will undermine the benefits of screening by increasing the rate of false positive results and the financial costs.     

Cervical screening in an inner city area: response to a call system in general practice.

To determine whether a cervical screening call system based in general practice in a deprived inner city area would increase the numbers of women who came forward for cervical smears the response to letters of invitation for screening was monitored for one year in one general practice in the Paddington and North Kensington district of London. Women aged 20-64 were identified from the computerised age-sex register. Only 16% of these women had had a smear test. A total of 750 call letters was sent out. Initially the response was poor (57 women; 22%), and 85 (32%) letters were returned marked "address unknown." After the age-sex register was updated the response to call was 330 women (44%). The response of women aged over 35 was better than the response of women aged 35 and under (229 (53%) v 101 (32%)). In the year of the study the number of women aged 20-64 on the revised register who had been screened rose by 330 (14%). A general practice based call system can improve uptake of cervical screening even in a highly mobile, socially underprivileged population.     

Preliminary results of a district call scheme for cervical screening organised in general practice.

A recognised problem with the cervical screening programme in the United Kingdom is the failure to include women who have never had a cervical smear test, who are a high risk group. The implementation of a district based call scheme in East Berkshire in 1986 is described whereby women aged 20-64 with no record of a cervical smear test who were judged to be eligible for testing by their general practitioner were sent a personal invitation from their general practitioner to attend for a test. A list of high risk unscreened women was kept by each practice, and a duplicate sent to the cytology laboratory to update the central records. Six months after each batch of invitations had been sent the resulting number of women having a smear test was assessed. Forty three of 51 practices approached agreed to participate in the five year scheme. During the first year lists were sent to the 43 participating practices. The first list was returned to the cytology laboratory by 37 practices and the second by 33; practices varied in their responses, however, some needing considerable persuasion to return the lists. Of 972 identified unscreened women from the total 3757 women listed in the lists of the family practitioner committee, 247 (25%) had a cervical smear test in response to the invitation, representing an overall increase of 7% in the screened population. The preliminary findings of the five year study have shown that screening can be improved by a systematic call scheme. Coordinated support from the area health authority in health education, monitoring of screening, and feedback of data from the scheme to practices is required to reduce the proportion of unscreened women.     

Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III (CIN III) and invasive cervical carcinoma: the yawning gap revisited and the treatment of risk

In a 3-year study of the population of Southampton and south-west Hampshire there were 10 times as many cases of CIN III compared with invasive squamous carcinoma (700 compared with 70). The peak incidence of CIN III per 1000 screened women years was in those aged 25-29 years, which was 20 years earlier than the peak incidence of invasive cervical cancer per 1000 women years at risk. Ninety percent of CIN III was diagnosed in women under 50 years. There were 14 cases of cervical glandular intraepithelial neoplasia grade III (CGIN III), three coexisting with CIN III, all in women aged under 50 years: the gap between intraepithelial and invasive lesions was not seen for glandular neoplasia. Although referral was for at least moderate dyskaryosis in 86.8% of women with CIN III or CGIN III, most had been screened previously, either having had mild abnormalities requiring repeat cytology (39.8%) or negative cytology (34.5%). Only 12 women aged > or = 50 years had previous negative cytology: 21.4% compared with 35.6% of women aged < 50 years (P = 0.034). The results of this study suggest that the best opportunity for preventing invasive squamous cell carcinoma lies in screening women aged 20-39 years when the incidence of CIN III in the screened population is highest and before the peak incidence of invasive disease. The results also indicate the importance of repeated screening and follow up of minor cytological abnormalities in the detection of CIN III. The benefit of screening must be regarded as a treatment of risk, since it is almost certain that a high proportion of CIN III regresses or persists unchanged.     

Effectiveness of a call/recall system in improving compliance with cervical cancer screening: a randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effectiveness of a simple call/recall system in improving compliance with cervical cancer screening among women not screened in the previous 3 years. DESIGN: Prospective randomized controlled study. SETTING: Two family medicine clinics (1 urban, 1 rural) affiliated with Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John''s. PARTICIPANTS: A sample of women aged 18-69 years who were listed as patients of the clinics but who had not had a Papanicolaou test (Pap test) within the 3 years before the start of the study. Of 9071 women listed as patients 1360 (15.0%) had not undergone screening in the previous 3 years. A random sample of 650 were selected, 209 of whom were excluded because they had had a hysterectomy, had had a recent Pap test, had moved or had records containing clerical errors. This left 441 women for the study. INTERVENTION: The 221 women in the intervention group were sent a letter asking them to seek a Pap test and a reminder letter 4 weeks later. The 220 in the control group were sent no letters. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Number of women who had a Pap test within 2 months and 6 months after the first letter was sent. RESULTS: Within 2 months, more women in the intervention group than in the control group had been screened (2.8% [5/178] and 1.9% (4/208] respectively). There was also a difference between the overall proportions at 6 months (10.7% [19/178] and 6.3% [13/208] respectively). None of the differences was statistically significant. CONCLUSION: A letter of invitation is not sufficient to encourage women who have never or have infrequently undergone a Pap test to come in for cervical cancer screening. The effectiveness of added recruitment methods such as opportunistic screening by physicians, follow-up by telephone and the offer of a specific appointment should be evaluated.     

Effect of Pap-smear and sociodemographic factors on cervical cancer risk in Estonia: A population-based case-control study

BackgroundLike many Eastern-European countries, Estonia struggles with ineffective cervical cancer (CC) screening. Despite a long-term organised screening programme and high overall Pap-smear coverage, CC incidence and mortality remain very high. The aim of the study was to examine the reasons for high CC incidence in Estonia by analysing the effect of Pap-smears and sociodemographic factors on CC risk.MethodsIn this population-based case-control study, women aged ≥ 25 years with an in situ/invasive CC diagnosed in Estonia in 2011–2017 were defined as cases. Using a density sampling scheme, controls were randomly selected from general population. To estimate CC risk associated with having no Pap-smears during seven years before diagnosis (cases) or index date (controls), place of residence, interruption in health insurance, and several sociodemographic factors, multivariate logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Individual-level data from three population-based registries were used.ResultsAmong 1439 cases and 4317 controls, proportion of women with no Pap-smears was 53% and 35%, respectively. Women with no Pap-smears were at higher risk for CC (OR=2.35; 95% CI: 1.85–2.98). CC risk was increased among women who were younger, living in more remote regions, lower-educated, or divorced/widowed. Interruption in health insurance was associated with a 23% risk increase. Regional differences in CC risk were observed among screened women.ConclusionTo reduce the risk of CC in Estonia, efforts are necessary to increase screening coverage among high-risk women and ensure the quality of CC screening programme. Screening approaches and communication should be tailored to the needs of different population groups. Further studies are warranted to identify the reasons for regional differences in CC risk.     

Cervical Abnormalities Are More Common among Indigenous than Other Australian Women: A Retrospective Record-Linkage Study, 2000–2011

Indigenous Australian women have much higher incidence of cervical cancer compared to non-Indigenous women. Despite an organised cervical screening program introduced 25 years ago, a paucity of Indigenous-identified data in Pap Smear Registers remains. Prevalence of cervical abnormalities detected among the screened Indigenous population has not previously been reported. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of population-based linked health records for 1,334,795 female Queensland residents aged 20–69 years who had one or more Pap smears during 2000–2011; from linked hospital records 23,483 were identified as Indigenous. Prevalence was calculated separately for Indigenous and non-Indigenous women, for cytology-detected low-grade (cLGA) and high-grade abnormalities (cHGA), and histologically confirmed high-grade abnormalities (hHGA). Odds ratios (OR) were estimated from logistic regression analysis. In 2010–2011 the prevalence of hHGA among Indigenous women (16.6 per 1000 women screened, 95% confidence interval [CI] 14.6–18.9) was twice that of non-Indigenous women (7.5 per 1000 women screened, CI 7.3–7.7). Adjusted for age, area-level disadvantage and place of residence, Indigenous women had higher prevalence of cLGA (OR 1.4, CI 1.3–1.4), cHGA (OR 2.2, CI 2.1–2.3) and hHGA (OR 2.0, CI 1.9–2.1). Our findings show that Indigenous women recorded on the Pap Smear Register have much higher prevalence for cLGA, cHGA and hHGA compared to non-Indigenous women. The renewed cervical screening program, to be implemented in 2017, offers opportunities to reduce the burden of abnormalities and invasive cancer among Indigenous women and address long-standing data deficiencies.     

Screening for asymptomatic bowel cancer in general practice.

General practitioners screened 4284 asymptomatic people aged over 40 to compare the incidence of large bowel cancer and polyps with a control general practice (4288 patients). Compliance was best in young women (60%), and overall it was 42%. Twenty six patients who had a positive Haemoccult test result (1.5% of those screened) were examined by colonoscopy and 10 had polyps. The incidence of cancers in the two groups was similar but in the control (unscreened patients) practice no polyps were found.     

Comparing the Immunogenicity of AS03-Adjuvanted 2009 Pandemic H1N1 Vaccine with Clinical Protection in Priority Risk Groups in England

In England, during pandemic 2009 H1N1, vaccine efficacy and immunogenicity population studies in priority groups were rolled out in parallel to evaluate the pandemic vaccination programme. This provided a unique opportunity to compare immunogenicity and clinical protection in the same population and thus provide insights into the correlates of protection for the pandemic H1N1 2009 vaccine in risk groups. While clinical protection from AS03-adjuvanted pandemic 2009 H1N1 vaccine was high in those aged <25 years and pregnant women, effectiveness in older adults with chronic conditions has been found to be surprisingly poor. Here we present results from the immunogenicity study derived from the same population. Individuals from priority groups eligible for pandemic vaccination attending participating general practices were recruited. Pre and post-vaccination blood samples were collected and HI antibody testing to assess immune response to vaccination performed. The final cohort consisted of 610 individuals: 60 healthy children aged <5 years; 32 healthy pregnant women; 518 individuals from risk groups. Seroconversion rate in healthy children aged <5 years (87%, 95% CI: 75% to 94%) was higher than that of risk groups combined (65%, 95% CI: 61% to 69%) (p<0.001). Multivariable analysis of risk groups showed that the size of response in those who did seroconvert was lower in those who received the 2009/10 seasonal TIV (Fold effect: 0.52, 0.35 to 0.78). Predicted immunological boosting from higher pre-vaccine titres after 2009 pandemic H1N1 vaccination only occurred in children (seroconversion rate = 92%) and not in individuals aged 10 to 39 from risk groups (seroconversion rate = 74%). The lack of clinical protection identified in the same population in older adults from risk groups could be attributed to these lower seroresponses. Current immunogenicity licensing criteria for pandemic influenza vaccine may not correlate with clinical protection in individuals with chronic disease or immunocompromised.     

Effectiveness of the public health policy for breast cancer screening in Finland: population based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of screening for breast cancer as a public health policy. DESIGN: Follow up in 1987-92 of Finnish women invited to join the screening programme in 1987-9 and of the control women (balanced by age and matched by municipality of residence), who were not invited to the service screening. SETTING: Finland. SUBJECTS: Of the Finnish women born in 1927-39, 89893 women invited for screening and 68862 controls were followed; 1584 breast cancers were diagnosed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Rate ratio of deaths from breast cancer among the women invited for screening to deaths among those not invited. RESULTS: There were 385 deaths from breast cancer, of which 127 were among the 1584 incident cases in 1987-92. The rate ratio of death was 0.76 (95% confidence interval 0.53 to 1.09). The effect was larger and significant (0.56; 0.33 to 0.95) among women aged under 56 years at entry. 20 cancers were prevented (one death prevented per 10000 screens). CONCLUSIONS: A breast screening programme can achieve a similar effect on mortality as achieved by the trials for breast cancer screening. However, it may be difficult to justify a screening programme as a public health policy on the basis of the mortality reduction only. Whether to run a screening programme as a public health policy also depends on its effects on the quality of life of the target population and what the resources would be used for if screening was not done. Given all the different dimensions in the effect, mammography based breast screening is probably justifiable as a public health policy.     

O‐110 YEAR AUDIT OF GLANDULAR CYTOLOGY REPORTS WITH SPECIAL REGARD TO THE EFFECT OF CONVERSION TO LBC

Objectives: A randomised trial in screening to improve cytology (ARTISTIC Trial) was set up to evaluate the effectiveness of human papilloma virus (HPV) testing in primary cervical screening. Design: Women attending the NHS Cervical Screening Programme in Greater Manchester were screened for HPV in addition to routine cytological testing with ThinPrep Liquid‐Based Cytology (LBC). 25 020 women aged 20–64 were screened at entry and 3 years later. Participants were randomised in a 3 : 1 ratio between those whose HPV test result was revealed and acted upon and those in whom it was concealed. Results: A total of 24 510 women (18 386 revealed and 6124 concealed) had adequate cytology and HPV results. Cytology results at entry were: 87% normal, 11% borderline or mild, 1.1% moderate and 0.6% severe dyskaryosis or worse. Prevalence of HPV decreased sharply with age, from 40% at age 20–24 to 12% at 35–39 and 7% or less above age 50, and increased with cytological grade, from 10% (normal cytology) to 31% (borderline), 70% (mild), 86% (moderate), and 96% (severe or worse). Only 60% of women with severe dyskaryosis showed HPV 16 and / or 18 infection. Conclusion: The ARTISTIC Trial has provided the largest collection of LBC samples with HPV typing in Greater Manchester population. It has shown that the HPV testing is practicable in routine screening in women aged over 30. HPV 16 and 18 are more predictive for underlying disease, but other HPV types account for 30% of high‐grade disease.     

Response by women aged 65-79 to invitation for screening for breast cancer by mammography: a pilot study.

OBJECTIVE--To determine whether there is sufficient benefit to be gained by offering screening for breast cancer with mammography to women aged 65-79, who are not normally invited for screening. DESIGN--Pilot study of women eligible for screening but not for personal invitation. The results of this study were compared with the results of routinely screened younger women (aged 50-64) from the same general practice. SETTING--One group general practice in south Manchester. PATIENTS--The 631 women aged 65-79 on the practice list. A total of 42 (7%) were excluded by the general practitioner, and 22 (4%) invitation letters were returned by the post office. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Response rates to invitation for screening assessed by three indices: crude population coverage ratio, crude invited population coverage ratio, and corrected invited population coverage ratio. RESULTS--344 Patients aged 65-79 (61% of those invited, excluding those who could not be traced) were screened compared with 77% of women aged 50-64. The three response indices were higher for younger women than older: crude population coverage ratio = 66.5%, crude invited population coverage ratio = 69.3%, corrected invited population coverage ratio = 76.8% for women aged 50-64, compared with 54.5%, 58.4%, and 60.7% respectively for women aged 65-79. All four biopsies done in the older women gave positive results, giving a cancer detection rate of 11.6/1000 compared with 4.1/1000 among younger women. CONCLUSIONS--These results show that there is a potential for high attendance at routine screening by older women if they are invited in the same way as younger women. If these results are found elsewhere the costs and benefits of screening older women should be reassessed.     

Effect of rubella vaccination programme in schools on rubella immunity in a general practice population.

Between November 1979 and January 1980 all patients aged 13-21 years who attended a general practice in Glasgow were tested for their immunity against rubella (single radial haemolysis test). All of the women in the sample should have been vaccinated at 13 as part of the rubella vaccination programme, which began in Glasgow in 1971. The programme excludes boys. Of the 77 females and 64 male patients studied, nine (11.7%) and 10 (15.6%), respectively, were susceptible to the infection. For only 34 women was evidence of vaccination documented in the practice records, and three of those either had failed to seroconvert or had antibody below detectable values. Overall there was no significant differences between the proportion of men and women who were susceptible to the disease. The rubella vaccination programme had clearly failed to reduce the number of susceptible women in this practice. Hence the immune state of all girls should be checked at about 15 years of age, so that as many as possible may be rendered immune before they leave school.     

Caries and periodontal disease of the elderly in Pomerania, Germany: results of the Study of Health in Pomerania

Objective: The aim of this study was to describe the oral health status of older adults living in north‐eastern Germany. Materials and Methods: Representative samples of adults aged 60 years or older were examined as part of Study of the Health in Pomerania, a cross‐sectional, population‐based study. Data on 1446 subjects aged 60–79 years were evaluated for coronal caries using the decayed/missing/filled teeth (DMFT) index, root caries using the root caries index (RCI), calculus, plaque, bleeding on probing, pocket depth and attachment loss. Results: The prevalence of edentulousness varied from 16% in the 60–65‐year‐old group to 30% in the 75–79‐year‐old group, whereas the median number of remaining natural teeth per subject varied from 14 in the youngest age group (60–65 years) to one in the oldest (75–79 years). Among subjects aged 60–69 years, a quarter (26%) of the teeth examined had coronal restoration against 17% in the oldest age group (70–79 years). Coronal caries was found in 2% of the teeth in both age groups. Among teeth with gingival recession, 6% had fillings on root surfaces and 2% had root caries, irrespective of age. In all, 11% of the subjects had at least one untreated coronal lesion and 27% had at least one untreated root caries lesion. Plaque score, calculus score and bleeding on probing were higher in the oldest age group (70–79 years). The prevalence of periodontal disease expressed as the presence of at least one periodontal pocket of 4 mm and more, was higher in men and among the younger subjects (men aged 60–69 years: 85% vs. 71% in 70–79‐year‐old men; women aged 60–69 years: 71% vs. 62% in 70–79‐year‐olds). The prevalence of attachment loss of 3 mm or more followed a similar pattern. Conclusions: It seems therefore that in this population, the major oral health concern is related to caries and the small number of teeth retained among the dentate subjects.     

Audit of practice based cervical smear programme: completion of the cycle.

OBJECTIVES--To determine the effectiveness of a practice based cervical screening programme and the changing pattern of abnormal smear results and to improve the quality of care provided for patients. DESIGN--Audit of practice held data on cervical screening from 1980 to 1990. Changes in the programme were made after analysis of first five years'' data. SETTING--Mixed urban and rural practice of 10,900 patients in Northumberland. SUBJECTS--Women aged 20-65 who had not had a hysterectomy. RESULTS--2356 (85.1%) of the 2767 targeted women had a test during 1980-5 and 2498 (89.5%) of the 2790 women had a test during 1985-90. Inviting women aged 20-25 to attend for a test increased coverage from 45.8% (146/319) in 1980-5 to 82.5% (282/342) in 1985-90. The proportion of women with abnormalities requiring hospital referral rose in the second half of the study, especially among younger women (from 17/39 (44%) to 45/64 (70%) in women aged 25-34). CONCLUSIONS--Practice based cervical screening programmes can be highly effective. Cytological abnormalities affect patients psychologically as well as physically and practices should provide support and explanation for patients with abnormal results. Data from individual practices should be aggregated to allow health authorities to plan secondary care effectively.     

Model of outcomes of screening mammography: information to support informed choices

Objective To provide easy to use estimates of the benefits and harms of biennial screening mammography for women aged 40, 50, 60, and 70 years.Design Markov process model, with data from BreastScreen Australia, the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, and the Australian Bureau of Statistics.Main outcome measure Age specific outcomes expressed per 1000 women over 10 years.Results For every 1000 women screened over 10 years, 167-251 (depending on age) receive an abnormal result; 56-64 of these women undergo at least one biopsy, 9-26 have an invasive cancer detected by screening, and 3-6 have ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) detected by screening. More breast cancers (both invasive and DCIS) are diagnosed among screened than unscreened women. For example, among 1000 women aged 50 who have five biennial screens, 33 breast cancers are diagnosed: 28 invasive cancers (18 detected at screening and 10 interval cancers) and five DCIS (all detected at screening). By comparison, among 1000 women aged 50 who decline screening, 20 cancers are diagnosed over 10 years. There are about 0.5, 2, 3, and 2 fewer deaths from breast cancer over 10 years per 1000 women aged 40, 50, 60, and 70, respectively, who choose to be screened compared with women who decline screening at times determined by relevant policy.Conclusion Benefits and harms of screening mammography are relatively finely balanced. Quantitative estimates such as these can be used to support individual informed choices about screening.     

P‐26CONVENTIONAL V THIN LAYER TECHNIQUES: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF BRONCHIAL SPECIMENS USING CONVENTIONAL AND TWO LBC METHODS,THINPREP AND SUREPATH

Introduction: There is ongoing debate about the terminology used in the classification of dyskaryosis, including whether BNA smears should be classified according to whether koilocytes are present or not. We explored the effect of koilocytosis in the management experiences and clinical outcomes of women with a single BNA smear. Methods: This study includes 410 women aged 20–59 years, resident in Tayside who had an ‘baseline’ BNA smear between 31/10/1999 and 31/10/2002 who were eligible for the TOMBOLA trial but who did not participate. Recommended follow‐up for these women was a repeat smear in six months. Up to three‐years follow‐up data was collected on subsequent cytological smears, colposcopy examinations and any related histology. The baseline smear was re‐read for the presence or absence of koilocytes. Women were classified according to their clinical outcomes during their three years. Results: 47% (192/410) of women were classified as having koilocytosis at baseline. The mean age was lower among these women (25 years) compared to those without koilocytosis (35 years). 55% (105/192) of women with koilocytosis at baseline had one or more negative smears and no further abnormal smears, compared to 63% (137/218) of those without koilocytosis, the difference was not statistically significant. 28% (53/192) of women with koilocytosis at baseline were referred to colposcopy after subsequent low‐grade or high‐grade smears compared to 19% (42/218) of those without koilocytosis; the difference was statistically significant. 14% (27/192) of women with koilocytosis at baseline were diagnosed with CIN2/3 or worse during follow‐up compared to 10% (21/218) of women without koilocytosis; the difference was not statistically significant. Discussion: Our results suggest that the presence or absence of koilocytosis has little impact on the clinical outcomes of women with a BNA smear.