The determinants of fracture in men

Osteoporosis represents an increasingly important clinical and public health problem among older men. Estimates indicated that 1-2 million (3-6%) men aged 50 years and over in the United States have osteoporosis and 8-13 million (28- 47%) have osteopenia. The lifetime risk of suffering a hip, spine or forearm fracture for a 50-year-old man is 13%, similar to the risk for prostate cancer. The number of osteoporotic fractures in men is expected to increase dramatically due to aging of the population and secular increases in fracture rates. Identification of men who are at greatest risk of osteoporosis and the risk factors, which predispose men to fracture, are essential so that preventive steps can be taken. Data on risk factors are emerging but many questions remain. Men may fracture at a higher bone mineral density (BMD) level than women. However, estimates of volumetric BMD, which correct in part for gender differences in bone size, and risk of fracture, may actually show similar relationships in men and women. Fracture rates are similar in older African American women and Caucasian men. Improved understanding of ethnic differences in fracture could identify potential reasons for gender differences. Family history and genetic factors are also important risk factors for fractures but the specific candidate genes are not known and whether gender modifies the effects of these genetic polymorphisms on BMD and the risk of fracture is also not known. In general, lifestyle factors and anthropometric measurements show similar relationships with fractures in men and women although few comprehensive prospective studies have been conducted. Current data will be reviewed on the relationships between markers of skeletal health, genetic polymorphisms, lifestyle and anthropometric factors and fracture.     

The epidemiology of low- and high-energy distal radius fracture in middle-aged and elderly men and women in southern norway

Background

Distal radius is one of the most frequent sites for fractures in the elderly population. Despite this, there is a paucity of epidemiological data for distal radius fracture, in particular, distinguishing between high- and low-energy fractures. Our aim was to study the epidemiology of high- and low-energy distal radius fracture in middle-aged and elderly men and women in Southern Norway, and search for associates with high- or low-energy distal radius fracture in this population.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Patients with distal radius fractures aged ≥50 years were identified from all four hospitals in Southern Norway between 2004 and 2005. Age-adjusted and age-specific incidence rates for men and women were calculated, and potential associates with high- and low-energy distal radius fracture were explored both in univariate and multivariate analyses. A total of 799 individuals (118 men and 681 women) aged ≥50 years with low-energy and 84 (48 men and 36 women) with high-energy distal radius fracture were identified. The overall age-adjusted incidence rate per 10,000 person-years was 18.9 for men (low energy, 12.8 vs. high-energy, 6.1) and 75.1 for women (low energy, 71.1 vs. high energy, 4.0). In multivariate model, younger age, male gender, summer season, and living in a rural area were independently associated with an increased risk of high-energy fracture.

Conclusion

An approximately fourfold higher age-adjusted incidence rate for distal radius fracture was found among women, when compared with men. However, the proportion of patients with high-energy distal radius fracture was approximately fivefold higher in men than in women. Our data suggest that younger age, male gender, summer seasons, and living in rural areas are independent risk factors for increased risk of high-energy distal radius fracture.     

Bone density and risk of hip fracture in men and women: cross sectional analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the relative contribution of decline in bone density to the increase in risk of hip fracture with age in men and women. DESIGN: Incidence data of hip fracture from the general population were combined with the bone density distribution in a sample from the same population and with a risk estimate of low bone density known from literature. SETTING: The Netherlands. SUBJECTS: All people with a hospital admission for a hip fracture in 1993, and bone density measured in a sample of 581.4 men and women aged 55 years and over in a district of Rotterdam. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: One year cumulative risk of hip fracture by age, sex, and bone density measured at the femoral neck. RESULTS: A quarter of all hip fractures occurred in men. Men reached the same incidence as women at five years older. Controlled for age, the risk of hip fracture by bone density was similar in men and women. The risk of hip fracture increased 13-fold from age 60 to 80; decrease in bone density associated with age contributed 1.9 (95% confidence interval 1.5 to 2.4) in women and 1.6 (1.3 to 1.8) in men. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of hip fracture by age and bone density is similar in men and women. The decrease in bone density associated with age makes a limited contribution to the exponential increase of the risk of hip fracture with age.     

Do Cadmium, Lead, and Aluminum in Drinking Water Increase the Risk of Hip Fractures? A NOREPOS Study

The aim of this study was to investigate relations between cadmium, lead, and aluminum in municipality drinking water and the incidence of hip fractures in the Norwegian population. A trace metals survey in 566 waterworks was linked geographically to hip fractures from hospitals throughout the country (1994–2000). In all those supplied from these waterworks, 5,438 men and 13,629 women aged 50–85 years suffered a hip fracture. Poisson regression models were fitted, adjusting for age, region of residence, urbanization, and type of water source as well as other possibly bone-related water quality factors. Effect modification by background variables and interactions between water quality factors were examined (correcting for false discovery rate). Men exposed to a relatively high concentration of cadmium (IRR?=?1.10; 95 % CI 1.01, 1.20) had an increased risk of fracture. The association between relatively high lead and hip fracture risk was significant in the oldest age group (66–85 years) for both men (IRR?=?1.11; 95 % CI 1.02, 1.21) and women (IRR?=?1.10; 95 % CI 1.04, 1.16). Effect modification by degree of urbanization on hip fracture risk in men was also found for all three metals: cadmium, lead, and aluminum. In summary, a relatively high concentration of cadmium, lead, and aluminum measured in drinking water increased the risk of hip fractures, but the associations depended on gender, age, and urbanization degree. This study could help in elucidating the complex effects on bone health by risk factors found in the environment.     

Effect of salcatonin given intranasally on bone mass and fracture rates in established osteoporosis: a dose-response study.

OBJECTIVE--To study the dose related response of salmon calcitonin (salcatonin) given intranasally on bone mass and bone turnover and the effect of salcatonin on rates of fracture in elderly women with moderate osteoporosis. DESIGN--Double blind, placebo controlled, randomised group comparison. SETTING--Outpatient clinic for research into osteoporosis. SUBJECTS--208 healthy women aged 68-72 years who had a bone mineral content of the distal forearm on average 30% below the mean value for healthy premenopausal women. INTERVENTIONS--The 208 women were allocated randomly in blocks of four to two years of treatment with either salcatonin 50 IU, 100 IU, or 200 IU given intranasally or placebo. All groups received a calcium supplement of 500 mg. 32 of the women left the study before its end and 164 women complied with the study criteria throughout. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Bone mineral content of the distal forearm and lumbar spine and rates of vertebral and peripheral fractures after two years of treatment. RESULTS--The average changes in bone mineral content of the spine showed positive outcomes of 1% (95% confidence interval -0.1% to 1.5%) in the group treated with calcium (placebo) and 3% (1.8% to 4.2%) in the group treated with salcatonin 200 IU. There was a significant dose related response to salcatonin, manifested by an increase of 1.0%/100 IU (0.2% to 1.7%, p = 0.008). The rate of patients with new fractures was reduced significantly in the women treated with salcatonin to about one third of that in the non-salcatonin treated women (relative risk 0.23 (0.07 to 0.77)). CONCLUSION--The results suggest that, compared with calcium alone, salcatonin given intranasally reduces the rates of fracture by two thirds in elderly women with moderate osteoporosis. Furthermore, it increases spinal bone mass in a dose dependent manner.     

Epidemiology of Pelvic Fractures in Germany: Considerably High Incidence Rates among Older People

Epidemiological data about pelvic fractures are limited. Until today, most studies only analyzed inpatient data. The purpose of this study was to estimate incidence rates of pelvic fractures in the German population aged 60 years or older, based on outpatient and inpatient data. We conducted a retrospective population-based observational study based on routine data from a large health insurance company in Germany. Age and sex-specific incidence rates of first fractures between 2008 and 2011 were calculated. We also standardized incidence rates with respect to age and sex in the German population. Multiple Poisson regression models were used to evaluate the association between the risk of first pelvic fracture as outcome and sex, age, calendar year and region as independent variables. The total number of patients with a first pelvic fracture corresponded to 8,041 and during the study period 5,978 insured persons needed inpatient treatment. Overall, the standardized incidence rate of all first pelvic fractures was 22.4 [95% CI 22.0–22.9] per 10,000 person-years, and the standardized incidence rate of inpatient treated fractures 16.5 [16.1–16.9]. Our adjusted regression analysis confirmed a significant sex (RR 2.38 [2.23–2.55], p < 0.001, men as reference) and age effect (higher risk with increasing age, p < 0.001) on first fracture risk. We found a slight association between calendar year (higher risk in later years compared to 2008, p = 0.0162) and first fracture risk and a further significant association with region (RR 0.92 [0.87–0.98], p = 0.006, Westfalen-Lippe as reference). The observed incidences are considerably higher than incidences described in the international literature, even if only inpatient treated pelvic fractures are regarded. Besides which, non-inclusion of outpatient data means that a relevant proportion of pelvic fractures are not taken into account. Prevention of low energy trauma among older people remains an important issue.     

Influence of instability and muscular weakness in ethiopathogenesis of hip fractures

The aim of our study was to, in accordance with the presented theoretical presumptions, analyze the possible reasons for hip fractures of the older population in the north-eastern part of Croatia. A group of 2,696 persons (1,936 women and 760 men) with hip fractures has been analyzed during a 12 year period (from 1993. until 2005. year) in the Clinical Hospital Osijek. The date of admittance, age, gender and fracture location were recorded. In men, the incidence of total hip fracture number on the left side was greater 23.5% (p<0.01) compared to the right side, while in women this difference does not exist. Men have a greater incidence of trochanteric fractures than fractures of femoral neck on both sides, while in women this difference could be shown on the right side only. In women, a 30.5% (p<0.001) higher fracture incidence occurred in the winter compared to the summer. It has been concluded that in men the impaired neuromuscular function on the left body side caused the greater incidence of falls on this side. The more frequent multifragmental fractures of the trochanteric massive in men indicate the possible role of preserved pelvitrochanteric muscle tension in fracture characterization. Increased incidence of falls and fractures in the older female population can be interpreted with a more pronounced weakness of pelvitrochanteric muscles and consequent walking instability. Furthermore, a smaller incidence of hip fractures was noticed in the summer compared with winter. This is explained by a reduced exhaustion of pelvic muscles in summer (primarily pelvitrochanteric) and decrease in fall frequency.     

The prospective evaluation of the osteoporotic vertebral fractures incidence in a random population sample

Introduction Osteoporotic vertebral fractures are mostly incidental but in some patients may lead to clinical symptoms, characteristic deformations of the vertebral column and increase total mortality. The aim of the study was to evaluate the prevalence of osteoporotic vertebral fractures and risk factors for osteoporosis in a random sample of Szczecin inhabitants aged over 50 in the relation to the whole European population examined in the frame of EVOS (European Vertebral Osteoporosis Study) and its prospective phase - EPOS (European Prospective Osteoporosis Study). At the baseline, 607 persons were studied, including 301 women and 306 men. Material and methods The questionnaire on the risk factors for osteoporosis and the spine X-rays analysed by morphometry, were taken in all subjects. The incidence of osteoporotic vertebral deformity in the studied population was similar in both sexes (12.6% women and 10,3% men) but in men aged 50-64 fracture incidence was significantly higher in comparison with women. The prevalence of new vertebral fractures examined after 4 years was higher in women than in men (9.1 vs 6.4/1000 persons years). Among the risk factors for osteoporosis, low physical activity and prolonged immobilization in women significantly influenced the incidence of vertebral deformities. Conclusions: 1) The study shows the high incidence of risk factors and osteoporotic vertebral deformities in the population of Szczecin inhabitants aged over 50. 2) Visual assessment only with a combination with morphometry is an optimal tool for detection of incident vertebral fractures.     

Clinical Significance and Pathogenesis of Osteoporosis

The development of osteoporosis with advancing age in man is a widespread if not a universal phenomenon. The average loss between youth and old age amounts to about 15% of the skeleton but involves a much larger proportion of trabecular than of cortical bone.The principal clinical manifestation of osteoporosis is fracture, and three osteoporotic fracture syndromes can be defined: the lower forearm fracture, which predominantly affects women between the ages of 50 and 65; the fracture of the proximal femur, which affects both sexes over the age of 70; and the relatively rare vertebral crush fracture syndrome, which may present at any age but is most common in elderly women.The lower forearm fracture rate is inversely related to the mean normal lower forearm x-ray “density” of the wrist, which falls by about 30% in the 15 years following the menopause. This process, which is associated with corresponding trabecular bone loss elsewhere in the skeleton, is associated with a corresponding rise in the fasting urinary calcium excretion. Some degree of negative calcium balance, and consequent bone resorption, probably occurs in everyone during the later part of the night because calcium absorption is completed within about three to five hours of a meal. In postmenopausal women, however, the sensitivity of the bone to parathyroid hormone appears to be increased, and their nocturnal negative calcium balance therefore comes to exceed the positive balance which can be achieved during the waking hours.Femoral neck fractures in old people reflect the further progression of osteoporosis with advancing age since the fracture rate is inversely correlated with the mean thickness of the metacarpal cortex in the normal population. This progressive osteoporosis is associated with and could well result from a steady decline in calcium absorption which is at least partially attributable to vitamin-D deficiency and reversible on vitamin-D treatment.The vertebral crush fracture syndrome represents a severe degree of spinal osteoporosis which may be associated with relatively normal peripheral bones. It probably results from an accelerated negative calcium balance which mobilizes trabecular bone preferentially. Some of the factors which may contribute to this accelerated negative balance have been identified and include a reduced rate of bone turnover, impaired calcium absorption, and low oestrogen activity as judged by vaginal smears, but there may well be others as yet unidentified.     

Variations de l'incidence des fractures de l'extrémité supérieure du fémur chez les personnes agées de la région de Québec.

To estimate the incidence of fracture of the proximal end of the femur in people aged 50 years or older living in the Quebec area in 1971, 1976 and 1981 we determined the number of admissions for such fractures to the 15 acute care hospitals in the region. From 1971 to 1981 the number of fractures increased by 71%; the increases for those aged 75 to 84 years and 85 years or over were 98% and 118% respectively. The variation is only partly explained by changes in sex and age distribution of the population; the incidence rates also increased. Among men aged 75 to 84 years the incidence rate per 1000 person-years rose from 2.63 in 1971 to 5.22 in 1981, an increase of 98%; the corresponding figures for men aged 85 years or more were 9.76 and 16.91, an increase of 73%. Among women aged 75 to 84 years the rate rose from 7.28 to 8.81, an increase of 21%; the corresponding figures for women aged 85 years or more were 20.40 and 24.27, an increase of 21% and 19% respectively.     

Management of osteoporosis

Osteoporosis or osteopenia occurs in about 44 million Americans, resulting in 1.5 million fragility fractures per year. The consequences of these fractures include pain, disability, depression, loss of independence, and increased mortality. The burden to the healthcare system, in terms of cost and resources, is tremendous, with an estimated direct annual USA healthcare expenditure of about $17 billion. With longer life expectancy and the aging of the baby-boomer generation, the number of men and women with osteoporosis or low bone density is expected to rise to over 61 million by 2020. Osteoporosis is a silent disease that causes no symptoms until a fracture occurs. Any fragility fracture greatly increases the risk of future fractures. Most patients with osteoporosis are not being diagnosed or treated. Even those with previous fractures, who are at extremely high risk of future fractures, are often not being treated. It is preferable to diagnose osteoporosis by bone density testing of high risk individuals before the first fracture occurs. If osteoporosis or low bone density is identified, evaluation for contributing factors should be considered. Patients on long-term glucocorticoid therapy are at especially high risk for developing osteoporosis, and may sustain fractures at a lower bone density than those not taking glucocorticoids. All patients should be counseled on the importance of regular weight-bearing exercise and adequate daily intake of calcium and vitamin D. Exposure to medications that cause drowsiness or hypotension should be minimized. Non-pharmacologic therapy to reduce the non-skeletal risk factors for fracture should be considered. These include fall prevention through balance training and muscle strengthening, removal of fall hazards at home, and wearing hip protectors if the risk of falling remains high. Pharmacologic therapy can stabilize or increase bone density in most patients, and reduce fracture risk by about 50%. By selecting high risk patients for bone density testing it is possible to diagnose this disease before the first fracture occurs, and initiate appropriate treatment to reduce the risk of future fractures.     

Epidemiology of osteoporotic fractures

Osteoporosis constitutes a major public health problem through its association with age-related fractures. These fractures typically occur at the hip, spine and distal forearm. It has been estimated that the lifetime risk of a hip fracture in white women is 17.5%, with a comparable risk in men of 6%. Hip fractures lead to an overall reduction in survival of about 15% (relative or observed/expected survival at 5 years of 0.83), and the majority of excess deaths occur within the first 6 months following the fracture. Such fractures are also associated with considerable morbidity. Although all vertebral deformities do not come to clinical attention, the lifetime risk of clinically diagnosed vertebral fractures is about 15% in white women. Vertebral fractures tend to be associated with back pain and kyphosis, and also with an impairment of survival, though this is likely to be due to clustering of comorbidity. About one-quarter of clinically diagnosed vertebral deformities result in hospitalization.     

Epidemiologic features of cerebrovascular disease in Manitoba: incidence by age,sex and residence,with etiologic implications.

To determine the incidence of and risk factors in cerebrovascular disease in Manitoba, all 1367 new cases in defined areas (population, 660 391) in an 18-month period were studied. Pertinent data were collected from hospital records, death certificates and autopsy reports. The annual incidence of cerebrovascular disease in these areas was 138/100 000 and the incidence was generally higher in men than in women. The incidence of cerebral infarction (INF) and that of hemorrhage (HGE) were similar in men and women less than 50 years old; thereafter the incidence of INF increased faster with age than did that of HGE, the disparity being greater in men than in women, whereas the incidence of HGE increased at similar rates in the two sexes. The incidence of INF was significantly greater in men than in women in urban areas, and in men it was greater in urban than in rural areas. Elevated concentrations of serum lipids and smoking are implicated as risk factors in INF, and hypertension as a risk factor in HGE.     

Prediction of osteoporotic fractures by postural instability and bone density.

OBJECTIVE--To investigate the utility of risk factors such as bone mineral density, lifestyle, and postural stability in the prediction of osteoporotic fractures. DESIGN--Longitudinal, epidemiological, and population based survey. SETTING--City of Dubbo, New South Wales. SUBJECTS--All residents of Dubbo aged > or = 60 on 1 January 1989. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Incidence of fracture for individual subjects. RESULTS--The overall incidence of atraumatic fractures in men and women was 1.9% and 3.1% per annum respectively. The predominant sites of fracture were hip (18.9%), distal radius (18.5%), ribs and humerus (11.9% in each case), and ankle and foot (9.1% and 6.6% respectively). Major predictors of fractures in men and women were femoral neck bone mineral density, body sway, and quadriceps strength. Age, years since menopause, height, weight, and lifestyle factors were also correlated with bone mineral density and body sway and hence were indirect risk factors for fracture. Discriminant function analysis correctly identified 96% and 93% (sensitivities 88% and 81%) of men and women, respectively, who subsequently developed atraumatic fractures. Predictions based on this model indicated that a woman with a bone mineral density in the lowest quartile in the hip together with high body sway had a 8.4% probability of fracture per annum. This represented an almost 14-fold increase in risk of fracture compared with a woman in the highest bone mineral density quartile with low postural sway. An individual with all three predictors in the "highest risk" quartile had a 13.1% risk of fracture per annum. CONCLUSIONS--Bone mineral density, body sway, and muscle strength are independent and powerful synergistic predictors of fracture incidence.     

Osteoporosis in Men

ObjectiveTo review information pertinent to bone health and osteoporosis in men.MethodsA review of pertinent literature was conducted.ResultsOsteoporosis affects approximately 2 million men in the US and accounts for an estimated 600,000 fractures each year. There are significant differences in skeletal size and structure between men and women that account for differences in fracture incidence, location, and outcomes. Bone density testing is appropriate for men age 70 and older and younger men (50-69) who have risk factors for osteoporosis. Lifestyle management, including adequate calcium and vitamin D intake, appropriate physical activity, and avoidance of tobacco and heavy alcohol use, is appropriate for all men. Pharmacologic therapy to reduce fracture risk is advisable for men with a clinical diagnosis of osteoporosis (a spine or hip fracture) or a T-score of −2.5 or below in the spine, femoral neck, total hip or 1/3 radius; however, the majority of men at high risk will only be identified using a fracture risk assessment tool, such as FRAX. Alendronate, risedronate, zoledronic acid, denosumab, and teriparatide are Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved therapeutic options.ConclusionOsteoporosis in men presents an important public health problem with significant morbidity and mortality. There are recommended strategies for identifying men at high risk of fracture, and effective agents are available for treatment. (Endocr Pract. 2013;19:834-838)     

Cutaneous malignant melanoma in Scotland: incidence,survival, and mortality, 1979-94. The Scottish Melanoma Group.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the changing incidence of and mortality from cutaneous malignant melanoma in Scotland from 1979 to 1994. DESIGN: Detailed registration of clinical and pathological features, surgical and other treatment, and follow up of all cases of cutaneous malignant melanoma diagnosed from 1979 to 1994 and registered with specialist database for Scotland. SETTING: Scotland. SUBJECTS: 6288 patients with invasive primary cutaneous malignant melanoma diagnosed between 1 January 1979 and 31 December 1994. RESULTS: The annual age standardised incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma rose significantly from 3.5 to 7.8 per 100,000 per year in men and from 6.8 to 12.3 per 100,000 per year in women (P < 0.001 for both). World standardised rates increased from 2.7 to 6.0 per 100,000 per year in men and 4.6 to 8.50 per 100,000 in women. The incidence of melanoma continued to increase significantly in men of all ages during the study, but the rate stabilised in women after 1986. Mortality from cutaneous malignant melanoma was 1.3 per million per annum in men in 1979, rising to 2.3 per million per annum in 1994 (P < 0.01); it was 2.4 per million per annum in women in 1979, falling to 1.9 per million per annum in 1994 (P = 0.09). The underlying mortality trends showed a continuing rise for men but a downward trend for women that was not significant (P = 0.09). In men, melanoma free survival was 69% at 5 years and 61% at 10 years; in women the corresponding rates were 82% and 75%. Younger patients had higher survival rates, which were not entirely explained by thinner tumours. Over the 15 year period, survival rates improved by 12% overall, only partly owing to thinner tumours. CONCLUSIONS: In Scotland the incidence of melanoma in women has stabilised, while mortality associated with melanoma in women shows a downward trend.     

Effects of age on brachial artery myogenic responses in humans

The myogenic response, the inherent ability of blood vessels to rapidly respond to changes in transmural pressure, is involved in local blood flow autoregulation. Animal studies suggest that aging impairs the myogenic response. The purpose of this study was to compare the effects of changes in transmural pressure on mean blood velocity (MBV, cm/s) in young and older subjects. Twelve younger men and women (25 +/- 1 yr) were gender and body composition matched to twelve older men and women (65 +/- 1 yr). A specially designed tank raised or lowered forearm pressure by 50 mmHg within 0.2 s. Brachial artery MBV was measured directly above the site of forearm pressure change using Doppler methods. In response to increasing transmural pressure (i.e., release of +50 mmHg), older subjects compared with younger subjects had significantly lower peak MBV (Delta 12.43 +/- 1.16 vs. Delta 17.97 +/- 2.01 cm/s; P < 0.05), reduced rates in the dynamic fall of MBV after peak values were achieved (vasoconstriction) (-1.88 +/- 0.17 vs. -2.90 +/- 0.28 cm.s(-1).s(-1); P < 0.05), and lower MBV values with sustained suction. In response to decreasing transmural pressure (i.e., change to +50 mmHg), there was a significantly greater increase in MBV (Delta peak flow from trough 7.71 +/- 1.32 vs. 4.38 +/- 0.71 cm/s; P < 0.05) and a trend toward a greater rate of rise in MBV (vasodilation; 1.61 +/- 0.29 vs. 0.96 +/- 0.21 cm.s(-1).s(-1); P = 0.08) in the older subjects. Older subjects compared with the younger subjects exhibited decreased dynamic vasoconstriction, enhanced steady-state constriction, as well as evidence for enhanced dynamic vasodilation responses to sustained alterations in forearm transmural pressure.     

External Validation of the Garvan Nomograms for Predicting Absolute Fracture Risk: The Troms? Study

Background

Absolute risk estimation is a preferred approach for assessing fracture risk and treatment decision making. This study aimed to evaluate and validate the predictive performance of the Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator in a Norwegian cohort.

Methods

The analysis included 1637 women and 1355 aged 60+ years from the Tromsø study. All incident fragility fractures between 2001 and 2009 were registered. The predicted probabilities of non-vertebral osteoporotic and hip fractures were determined using models with and without BMD. The discrimination and calibration of the models were assessed. Reclassification analysis was used to compare the models performance.

Results

The incidence of osteoporotic and hip fracture was 31.5 and 8.6 per 1000 population in women, respectively; in men the corresponding incidence was 12.2 and 5.1. The predicted 5-year and 10-year probability of fractures was consistently higher in the fracture group than the non-fracture group for all models. The 10-year predicted probabilities of hip fracture in those with fracture was 2.8 (women) to 3.1 times (men) higher than those without fracture. There was a close agreement between predicted and observed risk in both sexes and up to the fifth quintile. Among those in the highest quintile of risk, the models over-estimated the risk of fracture. Models with BMD performed better than models with body weight in correct classification of risk in individuals with and without fracture. The overall net decrease in reclassification of the model with weight compared to the model with BMD was 10.6% (p = 0.008) in women and 17.2% (p = 0.001) in men for osteoporotic fractures, and 13.3% (p = 0.07) in women and 17.5% (p = 0.09) in men for hip fracture.

Conclusions

The Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator is valid and clinically useful in identifying individuals at high risk of fracture. The models with BMD performed better than those with body weight in fracture risk prediction.     

A meta-analysis of cigarette smoking,bone mineral density and risk of hip fracture: recognition of a major effect.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the magnitude and importance of the relation between smoking, bone mineral density, and risk of hip fracture according to age. DESIGN: Meta-analysis of 29 published cross sectional studies reporting the difference in bone density in 2156 smokers and 9705 non-smokers according to age, and of 19 cohort and case-control studies recording 3889 hip fractures reporting risk in smokers relative to non-smokers. RESULTS: In premenopausal women bone density was similar in smokers and non-smokers. Postmenopausal bone loss was greater in current smokers than non-smokers, bone density diminishing by about an additional 2% for every 10 year increase in age, with a difference of 6% at age 80. In current smokers relative to non-smokers the risk of hip fracture was similar at age 50 but greater thereafter by an estimated 17% at age 60, 41% at 70, 71% at 80, and 108% at 90. These estimates of relative risk by age, derived directly from a regression analysis of the studies of smoking and hip fracture, were close to estimates using the difference in bone density between smokers and non-smokers and the association between bone density and risk of hip fracture. The estimated cumulative risk of hip fracture in women in England was 19% in smokers and 12% in non-smokers to age 85; 37% and 22% to age 90. Among all women, one hip fracture in eight is attributable to smoking. Limited data in men suggest a similar proportionate effect of smoking as in women. The association was not explained by smokers being thinner, younger at menopause, and exercising less nor by actions of smoking on oestrogen, but smoking may have a direct action on bone. CONCLUSIONS: Hip fracture in old age is a major adverse effect of smoking after the menopause. The cumulative excess bone loss over decades is substantial, increasing the lifetime risk of hip fracture by about half.     

Cadmium, osteoporosis and calcium metabolism

Occupational exposure to cadmium has for long been associated with renal tubular cell dysfunction, osteomalacia with osteoporosis, hypercalciuria and renal stone formation. High environmental exposure in Japan resulting from a stable diet of cadmium contaminated rice caused itai-itai disease, fractures occurring mainly in elderly multiparous women, with a form of osteomalacia, osteoporosis and renal dysfunction. More recently a population based study in Europe, in the vicinity of zinc smelters has shown that low to moderate exposure to cadmium, with a mean urinary excretion of cadmium of the order of 1 microg/g creatinine has been associated with a decrease in bone density, an increased risk of bone fractures in women and of height loss in men. In a population-based study of residents near a cadmium smelter in China, forearm bone density was shown to decrease linearly with age and urinary cadmium in both sexes, suggesting a dose effect relationship between cadmium dose and bone mineral density. A marked increase in the prevalence of fractures was shown in the cadmium-polluted area in both sexes. Concentrations of cadmium in blood and urine were taken as exposure biomarkers, and beta2-microglobulin, retinol binding protein and albumin as biomarkers of effect. A marked dose response relationship between these indicators of exposure and effect was shown. Hypercalciuria, which may progress to osteoporosis, has been taken as a sensitive renal-tubular biomarker of a low level of cadmium exposure. Cadmium may also act directly on bone. Animal studies have shown cadmium to stimulate the formation and activity of osteoclasts, breaking down the collagen matrix in bone. Osteoporosis is the main cause of fracures in post-menopausal women, a common occurrence worldwide, giving rise to disability and a high cost to health services. The identification of cadmium, an environmental pollutant, as one causal factor is highly significant in helping to control the incidence of this complex condition.