Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change

Elevated ocean temperatures can cause coral bleaching, the loss of colour from reef‐building corals because of a breakdown of the symbiosis with the dinoflagellate Symbiodinium. Recent studies have warned that global climate change could increase the frequency of coral bleaching and threaten the long‐term viability of coral reefs. These assertions are based on projecting the coarse output from atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (GCMs) to the local conditions around representative coral reefs. Here, we conduct the first comprehensive global assessment of coral bleaching under climate change by adapting the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method to the output of a low‐ and high‐climate sensitivity GCM. First, we develop and test algorithms for predicting mass coral bleaching with GCM‐resolution sea surface temperatures for thousands of coral reefs, using a global coral reef map and 1985–2002 bleaching prediction data. We then use the algorithms to determine the frequency of coral bleaching and required thermal adaptation by corals and their endosymbionts under two different emissions scenarios. The results indicate that bleaching could become an annual or biannual event for the vast majority of the world's coral reefs in the next 30–50 years without an increase in thermal tolerance of 0.2–1.0°C per decade. The geographic variability in required thermal adaptation found in each model and emissions scenario suggests that coral reefs in some regions, like Micronesia and western Polynesia, may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Advances in modelling and monitoring will refine the forecast for individual reefs, but this assessment concludes that the global prognosis is unlikely to change without an accelerated effort to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.     

Coral Luminescence Identifies the Pacific Decadal Oscillation as a Primary Driver of River Runoff Variability Impacting the Southern Great Barrier Reef

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a large-scale climatic phenomenon modulating ocean-atmosphere variability on decadal time scales. While precipitation and river flow variability in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchments are sensitive to PDO phases, the extent to which the PDO influences coral reefs is poorly understood. Here, six Porites coral cores were used to produce a composite record of coral luminescence variability (runoff proxy) and identify drivers of terrestrial influence on the Keppel reefs, southern GBR. We found that coral skeletal luminescence effectively captured seasonal, inter-annual and decadal variability of river discharge and rainfall from the Fitzroy River catchment. Most importantly, although the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events was evident in the luminescence records, the variability in the coral luminescence composite record was significantly explained by the PDO. Negative luminescence anomalies (reduced runoff) were associated with El Niño years during positive PDO phases while positive luminescence anomalies (increased runoff) coincided with strong/moderate La Niña years during negative PDO phases. This study provides clear evidence that not only ENSO but also the PDO have significantly affected runoff regimes at the Keppel reefs for at least a century, and suggests that upcoming hydrological disturbances and ecological responses in the southern GBR region will be mediated by the future evolution of these sources of climate variability.     

Dynamical seasonal prediction of summer sea surface temperatures in the Great Barrier Reef

Coral bleaching is a serious problem threatening the world coral reef systems, triggered by high sea surface temperatures (SST) which are becoming more prevalent as a result of global warming. Seasonal forecasts from coupled ocean–atmosphere models can be used to predict anomalous SST months in advance. In this study, we assess the ability of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology seasonal forecast model (POAMA) to forecast SST anomalies in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, with particular focus on the major 1998 and 2002 bleaching events. Advance warning of potential bleaching events allows for the implementation of management strategies to minimise reef damage. This study represents the first attempt to apply a dynamical seasonal model to the problem of coral bleaching and predict SST over a reef system for up to 6 months lead-time, a potentially invaluable tool for reef managers. Communicated by Geology Editor Dr Bernhard Riegl     

Large-scale stress factors affecting coral reefs: open ocean sea surface temperature and surface seawater aragonite saturation over the next 400 years

One-third of the world’s coral reefs have disappeared over the last 30 years, and a further third is under threat today from various stress factors. The main global stress factors on coral reefs have been identified as changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and changes in surface seawater aragonite saturation (Ω_arag). Here, we use a climate model of intermediate complexity, which includes an ocean general circulation model and a fully coupled carbon cycle, in conjunction with present-day observations of inter-annual SST variability to investigate three IPCC representative concentration pathways (RCP 3PD, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5), and their impact on the environmental stressors of coral reefs related to open ocean SST and open ocean Ω_arag over the next 400 years. Our simulations show that for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the threshold of 3.3 for zonal and annual mean Ω_arag would be crossed in the first half of this century. By year 2030, 66–85% of the reef locations considered in this study would experience severe bleaching events at least once every 10 years. Regardless of the concentration pathway, virtually every reef considered in this study (>97%) would experience severe thermal stress by year 2050. In all our simulations, changes in surface seawater aragonite saturation lead changes in temperatures.     

A biogeographic analysis and review of the far eastern Pacific coral reef region

New information on the presence and relative abundances of 41 reef-building (zooxanthellate) coral species at 11 eastern Pacific and 3 central Pacific localities is examined in a biogeographic analysis and review of the eastern Pacific coral reef region. The composition and origin of the coral fauna and other reef-associated taxa are assessed in the context of dispersal and vicariance hypotheses. A minimum variance cluster analysis using coral species presence–absence classification data at the 14 localities revealed three eastern Pacific reef-coral provinces: (1) equatorial– mainland Ecuador to Costa Rica, including the Galápagos and Cocos Islands; (2) northern– mainland México and the Revillagigedo Islands; (3) island group– eastern Pacific Malpelo Island and Clipperton Atoll, and central Pacific Hawaiian, Johnston and Fanning Islands. Coral species richness is relatively high in the equatorial (17–26 species per locality) and northern (18–24 species) provinces, and low at two small offshore island localities (7–10 species). A high proportion (36.6%, 15 species) of eastern Pacific coral species occurs at only one or two localities; of these, three disappeared following the 1982–83 ENSO event, three occur as death assemblages at several localities, and five are endangered with known populations of ten or fewer colonies. Principal component analysis using ordinal relative density data for the 41 species at the 14 localities indicated three main species groupings, i.e., those with high, mid, and narrow spatial distributions. These groupings correlated with species population-dynamic characteristics. These results were compared with data for riverine discharges, ocean circulation patterns, shoreline habitat characteristics, and regional sea surface temperature data to help clarify the analyses as these measures of environmental variability affect coral community composition. Local richness was highest at localities with the highest environmental variability. Recent information regarding the strong affinity between eastern and central Pacific coral faunas, abundance of teleplanic larvae in oceanic currents, high genetic similarity of numerous reef-associated species, and appearances of numerous Indo-west Pacific species in the east Pacific following ENSO activity, suggest the bridging of the east Pacific filter bridge (formerly east Pacific barrier). Accepted: 20 September 1999     

The impact of ENSO on coral heat stress in the western equatorial Pacific

The Coral Triangle encompasses an extensive region of coral reefs in the western tropical Pacific with marine resources that support millions of people. As in all other reef regions, coral reefs in the Coral Triangle have been impacted by anomalously high ocean temperature. The vast majority of bleaching observations to date have been associated with the 1998 La Niña phase of ENSO. To understand the significance of ENSO and other climatic oscillations to heat stress in the Coral Triangle, we use a 5‐km resolution Regional Ocean Model System for the Coral Triangle (CT‐ROMS) to study ocean temperature thresholds and variability for the 1960–2007 historical period. Heat‐stress events are more frequent during La Niña events, but occur under all climatic conditions, reflecting an overall warming trend since the 1970s. Mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the region increased an average of ~ 0.1 °C per decade over the time period, but with considerable spatial variability. The spatial patterns of SST and heat stress across the Coral Triangle reflect the complex bathymetry and oceanography. The patterns did not change significantly over time or with shifts in ENSO. Several regions experienced little to no heat stress over the entire period. Of particular interest to marine conservation are regions where there are few records of coral bleaching despite the presence of significant heat stress, such as in the Banda Sea. Although this may be due to under‐reporting of bleaching events, it may also be due to physical factors such as mixing and cloudiness, or biological factors that reduce sensitivity to heat stress.     

Predicting coral bleaching hotspots: the role of regional variability in thermal stress and potential adaptation rates

Sea surface temperature fields (1870–2100) forced by CO₂-induced climate change under the IPCC SRES A1B CO₂ scenario, from three World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (WCRP CMIP3) models (CCSM3, CSIRO MK 3.5, and GFDL CM 2.1), were used to examine how coral sensitivity to thermal stress and rates of adaption affect global projections of coral-reef bleaching. The focus of this study was two-fold, to: (1) assess how the impact of Degree-Heating-Month (DHM) thermal stress threshold choice affects potential bleaching predictions and (2) examine the effect of hypothetical adaptation rates of corals to rising temperature. DHM values were estimated using a conventional threshold of 1°C and a variability-based threshold of 2σ above the climatological maximum Coral adaptation rates were simulated as a function of historical 100-year exposure to maximum annual SSTs with a dynamic rather than static climatological maximum based on the previous 100 years, for a given reef cell. Within CCSM3 simulations, the 1°C threshold predicted later onset of mild bleaching every 5 years for the fraction of reef grid cells where 1°C > 2σ of the climatology time series of annual SST maxima (1961–1990). Alternatively, DHM values using both thresholds, with CSIRO MK 3.5 and GFDL CM 2.1 SSTs, did not produce drastically different onset timing for bleaching every 5 years. Across models, DHMs based on 1°C thermal stress threshold show the most threatened reefs by 2100 could be in the Central and Western Equatorial Pacific, whereas use of the variability-based threshold for DHMs yields the Coral Triangle and parts of Micronesia and Melanesia as bleaching hotspots. Simulations that allow corals to adapt to increases in maximum SST drastically reduce the rates of bleaching. These findings highlight the importance of considering the thermal stress threshold in DHM estimates as well as potential adaptation models in future coral bleaching projections.     

Coral reef crisis in deep and shallow reefs: 30 years of constancy and change in reefs of Curacao and Bonaire

Coral reefs are thought to be in worldwide decline but available data are practically limited to reefs shallower than 25 m. Zooxanthellate coral communities in deep reefs (30–40 m) are relatively unstudied. Our question is: what is happening in deep reefs in terms of coral cover and coral mortality? We compare changes in species composition, coral mortality, and coral cover at Caribbean (Curacao and Bonaire) deep (30–40 m) and shallow reefs (10–20 m) using long-term (1973–2002) data from permanent photo quadrats. About 20 zooxanthellate coral species are common in the deep-reef communities, dominated by Agaricia sp., with coral cover up to 60%. In contrast with shallow reefs, there is no decrease in coral cover or number of coral colonies in deep reefs over the last 30 years. In deep reefs, non-agaricid species are decreasing but agaricid domination will be interrupted by natural catastrophic mortality such as deep coral bleaching and storms. Temperature is a vastly fluctuating variable in the deep-reef environment with extremely low temperatures possibly related to deep-reef bleaching. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Quantifying the Hydroregime of a Temporary Pool Habitat: A Modelling Approach for Ephemeral Rock Pools in SE Botswana

Ecological and evolutionary processes in temporary rock pools operate within constraints imposed by their hydrologic regimes. These shallow pools flood when seasonal rains accumulate on impermeable substrates. Despite the ecological importance of hydrologic conditions for these ecosystems, we typically lack tools and empirical data required to understand the implications of hydrologic variability and climate change for biotic populations and communities in these habitats. In this study, we developed a hydrologic model to simulate rock pool hydrologic regimes based on rainfall, evapotranspiration, and basin geometry. The model was used to investigate long-term patterns of seasonal and inter-annual variation in hydroregime. In addition, hydrologic conditions associated with potential climate change scenarios were simulated and evaluated with respect to the biological requirements of the anostracan Branchipodopsis wolfi. The model’s output for daily inundation matched with field observations with an overall accuracy of 85% and correctly estimated complete hydroperiods with an overall accuracy of 70%. Simulations indicate large variation in individual hydroperiods (76–115%) as well as in the number of hydroperiods per year (19–23%). Furthermore, this study suggests that climate change may significantly alter the rock pool hydroregime. These findings confirm the hydrologic sensitivity of these ephemeral habitats to precipitation patterns, and their potential sensitivity to future climate change. Modelling indicates that the suitability of average inundation conditions for B. wolfi deteriorates significantly under future climate predictions. High levels of spatial and temporal variation in hydrologic conditions are dominant features of these habitats and an essential consideration for understanding population and community-level ecological processes.     

Predictability of coral bleaching from synoptic satellite and in situ temperature observations

Satellite and compiled in situ observations of sea surface temperatures have greatly increased the ability to detect anomalous and persistent warm water and are being widely used to predict climate change, coral bleaching and mortality. A field-based synoptic view of coral bleaching spanning eight countries and ∼35° of latitude in the western Indian Ocean tested the accuracy of synoptic temperature data derived from satellites and shipboard data to detect and predict bleaching during 2005. The ability to predict the degree of bleaching based on degree heating weeks data was moderate, but increased when past temperature anomalies and coral community susceptibility were included. It is estimated that slightly more than half of the bleaching response is due to anomalous warm water and nearly half due to taxa and community level acclimation or adaptation, where these two factors have opposing effects. Cumulative temperature anomalies do identify general areas with bleaching but both large over and underestimates of bleaching intensity were observed. Consequently, field observations are needed to confirm the synoptic satellite predictions for particular reefs, particularly where acclimation and reorganization of the coral community have occurred due to past bleaching events.     

Sea surface temperatures and coral reef bleaching off La Parguera, Puerto Rico (northeastern Caribbean Sea)

 Much recent attention has been given to coral reef bleaching because of its widespread occurrence, damage to reefs, and possible connection to global change. There is still debate about the relationship between temperature and widespread bleaching. We compared coral reef bleaching at La Parguera, Puerto Rico to a 30-y (1966–1995) record of sea surface temperature (SST) at the same location. The last eight years of the La Parguera SST record have all had greater than average maximum temperatures; over the past 30 y maximum summer temperature has increased 0.7 °C. Coral reef bleaching has been particularly frequent since the middle 1980s. The years 1969, 1987, 1990, and 1995 were especially noteworthy for the severity of bleaching in Puerto Rico. Seven different annual temperature indices were devised to determine the extent to which they could predict severe coral bleaching episodes. Three of these, maximum daily SST, days >29.5 °C, and days >30 °C predict correctly the four years with severe bleaching. A log-log linear relationship was found between SST and the number of days in a given year above that SST at which severe coral beaching was observed. However, the intra-annual relationship between temperature and the incidence of bleaching suggests that no one simple predictor of the onset of coral bleaching within a year may be applicable. Accepted: 17 March 1998     

On impact of transport conditions on variability of the seasonal pollen index

This discussion paper reveals the contribution of pollen transport conditions to the inter-annual variability of the seasonal pollen index (SPI). This contribution is quantified as a sensitivity of the pollen model predictions to meteorological variability and is shown to be a noticeable addition to the SPI variability caused by plant reproduction cycles. A specially designed SILAM model re-analysis of pollen seasons 1980–2014 was performed, resulting in the 35 years of the SPI predictions over Europe, which was used to compute the SPI inter-annual variability. The current paper presents the results for birch and grass. Throughout the re-analysis, the source term formulations and habitation maps were kept constant, which allowed attributing the obtained variability exclusively to the pollen release and transport conditions during the flowering seasons. It is shown that the effect is substantial: it amounts to 10–20% (grass) and 20–40% (birch) of the observed SPI year-to-year changes reported in the literature. The phenomenon has well-pronounced spatial- and species-specific patterns. The findings were compared with observation-based statistical models for the SPI prediction, showing that such models highlight the same processes as the analysis with the SILAM model.     

A Short Guide to the Climatic Variables of the Last Glacial Maximum for Biogeographers

Ecological niche models are widely used for mapping the distribution of species during the last glacial maximum (LGM). Although the selection of the variables and General Circulation Models (GCMs) used for constructing those maps determine the model predictions, we still lack a discussion about which variables and which GCM should be included in the analysis and why. Here, we analyzed the climatic predictions for the LGM of 9 different GCMs in order to help biogeographers to select their GCMs and climatic layers for mapping the species ranges in the LGM. We 1) map the discrepancies between the climatic predictions of the nine GCMs available for the LGM, 2) analyze the similarities and differences between the GCMs and group them to help researchers choose the appropriate GCMs for calibrating and projecting their ecological niche models (ENM) during the LGM, and 3) quantify the agreement of the predictions for each bioclimatic variable to help researchers avoid the environmental variables with a poor consensus between models. Our results indicate that, in absolute values, GCMs have a strong disagreement in their temperature predictions for temperate areas, while the uncertainties for the precipitation variables are in the tropics. In spite of the discrepancies between model predictions, temperature variables (BIO1-BIO11) are highly correlated between models. Precipitation variables (BIO12- BIO19) show no correlation between models, and specifically, BIO14 (precipitation of the driest month) and BIO15 (Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation)) show the highest level of discrepancy between GCMs. Following our results, we strongly recommend the use of different GCMs for constructing or projecting ENMs, particularly when predicting the distribution of species that inhabit the tropics and the temperate areas of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, because climatic predictions for those areas vary greatly among GCMs. We also recommend the exclusion of BIO14 and BIO15 from ENMs because those variables show a high level of discrepancy between GCMs. Thus, by excluding them, we decrease the level of uncertainty of our predictions. All the climatic layers produced for this paper are freely available in http://ecoclimate.org/.     

Coral mortality,recovery and reef degradation at Mexico Rocks Patch Reef Complex,Northern Belize,Central America: 1995–1997

The 1995 coral bleaching event in the western Caribbean was the first reported episode that significantly affected the Belize barrier and lagoonal patch reefs. Bleaching was attributed to a 2 mo period of warm water temperatures above 30°C. Near Ambergris Caye, barrier and patch reefs experienced up to 50% bleaching. At Mexico Rocks patch reef complex, the bleaching resulted in changes in reef health, community, and physical structure. Prior to the hyperthermal episode, patch reef surface area consisted of 47% healthy framework coral coverage, 12% secondarily colonized biotic coverage, 35% dead coral surfaces that were degraded by biological activity and physical erosion, and 6%cavities. six months after bleaching, most corals had regained their color, but, owing to coral mortality, areas of surface degradation had increased to an average 49% (p=0.029 based on Kruskal–Wallis analyses). Eighteen months after bleaching, degraded surface areas expanded to 53% (p=0.0366). Although re-coloring indicates rapid recovery for surviving corals, the persistence in dead coral surfaces suggests that reef skeletal structure recovery lags behind that of individual corals. Initial results of framework measurements indicate that bleaching events may result in an ‘imbalance’ in the carbonate production rate of coral reefs and produce mass wasting of the skeletal structure. Remapping of reef skeletal structure should establish quantitative measures for the long-term effects of bleaching on patch reef frameworks.     

Downscaled projections of Caribbean coral bleaching that can inform conservation planning

Projections of climate change impacts on coral reefs produced at the coarse resolution (~1°) of Global Climate Models (GCMs) have informed debate but have not helped target local management actions. Here, projections of the onset of annual coral bleaching conditions in the Caribbean under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 are produced using an ensemble of 33 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase‐5 models and via dynamical and statistical downscaling. A high‐resolution (~11 km) regional ocean model (MOM4.1) is used for the dynamical downscaling. For statistical downscaling, sea surface temperature (SST) means and annual cycles in all the GCMs are replaced with observed data from the ~4‐km NOAA Pathfinder SST dataset. Spatial patterns in all three projections are broadly similar; the average year for the onset of annual severe bleaching is 2040–2043 for all projections. However, downscaled projections show many locations where the onset of annual severe bleaching (ASB) varies 10 or more years within a single GCM grid cell. Managers in locations where this applies (e.g., Florida, Turks and Caicos, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic, among others) can identify locations that represent relative albeit temporary refugia. Both downscaled projections are different for the Bahamas compared to the GCM projections. The dynamically downscaled projections suggest an earlier onset of ASB linked to projected changes in regional currents, a feature not resolved in GCMs. This result demonstrates the value of dynamical downscaling for this application and means statistically downscaled projections have to be interpreted with caution. However, aside from west of Andros Island, the projections for the two types of downscaling are mostly aligned; projected onset of ASB is within ±10 years for 72% of the reef locations.     

Coral mortality associated with thermal fluctuations in the Phoenix Islands, 2002�C2005

The Phoenix Islands (Republic of Kiribati, 172–170°W and 2.5–5°S) experience intra- and inter-annual sea surface temperature variability of ≈2°C and have few local anthropogenic impacts. From July 2002, a thermal stress event occurred, which peaked at 21 Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) in January 2003 and persisted for 4 years. Such thermal stress was greater than any thermal event reported in the coral reef literature. Reef surveys were conducted in July 2000, June 2002, and May 2005, for six of the eight islands. Sampling was stratified by exposure (windward, leeward, and lagoon) and depth (5, 10, 15, and 25 m). The thermal stress event caused mass coral mortality, and coral cover declined by approximately 60% between 2002 and 2005. However, mortality varied among sites (12–100%) and among islands (42–79%) and varied in accordance with the presence of a lagoon, island size, and windward vs. leeward exposure. Leeward reefs experienced the highest and most consistent decline in coral cover. Island size and the presence of a lagoon showed positive correlations with coral mortality, most likely because of the longer water residence time enhancing heating. Windward reefs showed cooler conditions than leeward reefs. Recently dead corals were observed at depths >35 m on windward and >45 m on leeward reefs. Between-island variation in temperature had no effect on between-island variation in coral mortality. Mortality levels reported here were comparable to those reported for the most extreme thermal stress events of 9–10 DHW in other regions. These results highlight the high degree of acclimation and/or adaptation of the corals in the Phoenix Islands to their local temperature regime, and their consequent vulnerability to anomalous events. Moreover, the results suggest the need to adjust thermal stress calculations to reflect local temperature variation.     

Population dynamics of zooxanthellae during a bacterial bleaching event

Each summer 80–90% of the colonies of Oculina patagonica undergo bleaching off the Mediterranean coast of Israel. To investigate fluctuations through a yearly bleaching cycle, monthly measurements of zooxanthella density, mitotic index and chlorophyll-a concentration were conducted. Results showed (1) a significant negative correlation between sea surface temperature (SST) and zooxanthella density; (2) both significantly lower zooxanthella mitotic index and higher chlorophyll-a per zooxanthella content during the bleaching season compared with the non-bleaching period; (3) prior to bleaching, a lag between the peak of zooxanthella density and chlorophyll-a concentration followed by a similar lag during recovery. Zooxanthella density declined significantly between March and May while chlorophyll-a concentration peaked in April, and then declined. Zooxanthella density increased significantly in November while chlorophyll-a concentration increased significantly in January. We conclude that during bacterial bleaching events, zooxanthellae are severely damaged. However, by the time of the following bleaching event the coral tissues regain their “normal” (pre-bleaching) zooxanthella population density.     

Coral disease following massive bleaching in 2005 causes 60% decline in coral cover on reefs in the US Virgin Islands

In the northeast Caribbean, doldrum-like conditions combined with elevated water temperatures in the summer/fall 2005 created the most severe coral bleaching event ever documented within this region. Video monitoring of 100 randomly chosen, permanent transects at five study sites in the US Virgin Islands revealed over 90% of the scleractinian coral cover showed signs of thermal stress by paling or becoming completely white. Lower water temperatures in October allowed some re-coloring of corals; however, a subsequent unprecedented regional outbreak of coral disease affected all sites. Five known diseases or syndromes were recorded; however, most lesions showed signs similar to white plague. Nineteen scleractinian species were affected by disease, with >90% of the disease-induced lesions occurring on the genus Montastraea. The disease outbreak peaked several months after the onset of bleaching at all sites but did not occur at the same time. The mean number of disease-induced lesions increased 51-fold and the mean area of disease-associated mortality increased 13-fold when compared with pre-bleaching disease levels. In the 12 months following the onset of bleaching, coral cover declined at all sites (average loss: 51.5%, range: 42.4–61.8%) reducing the five-site average from 21.4% before bleaching to 10.3% with most mortality caused by white plague disease, not bleaching. Continued losses through October 2007 reduced the average coral cover of the five sites to 8.3% (average 2-year loss: 61.1%, range: 53.0–79.3%). Mean cover by M. annularis (complex) decreased 51%, Colpophyllia natans 78% and Agaricia agaricites 87%. Isolated disease outbreaks have been documented before in the Virgin Islands, but never as widespread or devastating as the one that occurred after the 2005 Caribbean coral-bleaching event. This study provides insight into the effects of continued seawater warming and subsequent coral bleaching events in the Caribbean and highlights the need to understand links between coral bleaching and disease.     

Sporadic Disturbances in Fluctuating Coral Reef Environments: El Nino and Coral Reef Development in the Eastern Pacific

The disastrous effects of the intense 1982–83 El Niño-SouthernOscillation (ENSO) bring new insight into the long-term developmentof eastern Pacific coral reefs. The 1988–83 ENSO sea surfacewarming event caused extensive reef coral bleaching (loss ofsymbiotic zooxanthellae), resulting in up to 70–95% coralmortality on reefs in Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador.In the Galapagos Islands (Ecuador), most coral reefs experienced>95% coral mortality. Also, several coral species experiencedextreme reductions in population size, and local and regionalextinctions. The El Niño event spawned secondary disturbances,such as increased predation and bioerosion, that continue toimpact reef-building corals. The death of Pocillopora colonieswith their crustacean guards eliminated coral barriers now allowingthe corallivore Acanthaster planci access to formerly protectedcoral prey. Sea urchins and other organisms eroded disturbedcorals at rates that exceed carbonate production, potentiallyresulting in the elimination of existing reef buildups. In otherreefbuilding regions following extensive, catastrophic coralmortality, rapid recovery often occurs through the growth ofsurviving corals, recruitment of new corals from nearby sourcepopulations, and survival of consolidated reef surfaces. Inthe eastern Pacific, however, the return of upwelling conditionsand the survival of coral predators and bioeroders hamper coralreef recovery by reducing recruitment success and eroding coralreef substrates. Thus, coral reef growth that occurs betweendisturbance events is not conserved. Repeated El Niñodisturbances, which have occurred throughout the recent geologichistory of the eastern Pacific, prevent coral communities fromincreasing in diversity and limit the development and persistenceof significant reef features. The poor development of easternPacific coral reefs throughout Holocene and perhaps much ofPleistocene time may result from recurrent thermal disturbancesof the intensity of the 1982–83 El Niño event.     

Coral colonisation of a shallow reef flat in response to rising sea level: quantification from 35?years of remote sensing data at Heron Island, Australia

Observations made on Heron Island reef flat during the 1970s–1990s highlighted the importance of rapid change in hydrodynamics and accommodation space for coral development. Between the 1940s and the 1990s, the minimum reef-flat top water level varied by some tens of centimetres, successively down then up, in rapid response to local engineering works. Coral growth followed sea-level variations and was quantified here for several coral communities using horizontal two-dimensional above water remotely sensed observations. This required seven high spatial resolution aerial photographs and Quickbird satellite images spanning 35 years: 1972, 1979, 1990, 1992, 2002, 2006 and 2007. The coral growth dynamics followed four regimes corresponding to artificially induced changes in sea levels: 1972–1979 (lowest growth rate): no detectable coral development, due to high tidal currents and minimum mean low-tide water level; 1979–1991 (higher growth rate): horizontal coral development promoted by calmer hydrodynamic conditions; 1991–2001(lower growth rate): vertical coral development, induced by increased local sea level by ~12 cm due to construction of new bund walls; 2001–2007 (highest growth rate): horizontal coral development after that vertical growth had become limited by sea level. This unique time-series displays a succession of ecological stage comprising a ‘catch-up’ dynamic in response to a rapid local sea-level rise in spite of the occurrences of the most severe bleaching events on record (1998, 2002) and the decreasing calcification rates reported in massive corals in the northern part of the Great Barrier Reef.