How heritable is individual susceptibility to death? The results of an analysis of survival data on Danish, Swedish and Finnish twins.

Molecular epidemiological studies confirm a substantial contribution of individual genes to variability in susceptibility to disease and death for humans. To evaluate the contribution of all genes to susceptibility and to estimate individual survival characteristics, survival data on related individuals (eg twins or other relatives) are needed. Correlated gamma-frailty models of bivariate survival are used in a joint analysis of survival data on more than 31,000 pairs of Danish, Swedish and Finnish male and female twins using the maximum likelihood method. Additive decomposition of frailty into genetic and environmental components is used to estimate heritability in frailty. The estimate of the standard deviation of frailty from the pooled data is about 1.5. The hypothesis that variance in frailty and correlations of frailty for twins are similar in the data from all three countries is accepted. The estimate of narrow-sense heritability in frailty is about 0.5. The age trajectories of individual hazards are evaluated for all three populations of twins and both sexes. The results of our analysis confirm the presence of genetic influences on individual frailty and longevity. They also suggest that the mechanism of these genetic influences may be similar for the three Scandinavian countries. Furthermore, results indicate that the increase in individual hazard with age is more rapid than predicted by traditional demographic life tables.     

A class of goodness of fit tests for a copula based on bivariate right-censored data

The copula of a bivariate distribution, constructed by making marginal transformations of each component, captures all the information in the bivariate distribution about the dependence between two variables. For frailty models for bivariate data the choice of a family of distributions for the random frailty corresponds to the choice of a parametric family for the copula. A class of tests of the hypothesis that the copula is in a given parametric family, with unspecified association parameter, based on bivariate right censored data is proposed. These tests are based on first making marginal Kaplan-Meier transformations of the data and then comparing a non-parametric estimate of the copula to an estimate based on the assumed family of models. A number of options are available for choosing the scale and the distance measure for this comparison. Significance levels of the test are found by a modified bootstrap procedure. The procedure is used to check the appropriateness of a gamma or a positive stable frailty model in a set of survival data on Danish twins.     

Genes, Demography, and Life Span: The Contribution of Demographic Data in Genetic Studies on Aging and Longevity

In population studies on aging, the data on genetic markers are often collected for individuals from different age groups. The purpose of such studies is to identify, by comparison of the frequencies of selected genotypes, "longevity" or "frailty" genes in the oldest and in younger groups of individuals. To address questions about more-complicated aspects of genetic influence on longevity, additional information must be used. In this article, we show that the use of demographic information, together with data on genetic markers, allows us to calculate hazard rates, relative risks, and survival functions for respective genes or genotypes. New methods of combining genetic and demographic information are discussed. These methods are tested on simulated data and then are applied to the analysis of data on genetic markers for two haplogroups of human mtDNA. The approaches suggested in this article provide a powerful tool for analyzing the influence of candidate genes on longevity and survival. We also show how factors such as changes in the initial frequencies of candidate genes in subsequent cohorts, or secular trends in cohort mortality, may influence the results of an analysis.     

Genetic maternal effects on human life span through the inheritance of mitochondrial DNA.

Ageing consists of an accumulation of changes with time both at the molecular and cellular levels, accompanying an increased susceptibility to diseases and death. If maternally inherited mitochondrial genes are involved in defining the nature and timing of ageing, and if there are genetic differences in their susceptibility to damage, a maternal contribution could be found in the inheritance of life span. The present study explores the inheritance pattern of longevity and discovers a significant genetic maternal component in human life span.     

A bivariate quantitative genetic model for a linear Gaussian trait and a survival trait

With the increasing use of survival models in animal breeding to address the genetic aspects of mainly longevity of livestock but also disease traits, the need for methods to infer genetic correlations and to do multivariate evaluations of survival traits and other types of traits has become increasingly important. In this study we derived and implemented a bivariate quantitative genetic model for a linear Gaussian and a survival trait that are genetically and environmentally correlated. For the survival trait, we considered the Weibull log-normal animal frailty model. A Bayesian approach using Gibbs sampling was adopted. Model parameters were inferred from their marginal posterior distributions. The required fully conditional posterior distributions were derived and issues on implementation are discussed. The two Weibull baseline parameters were updated jointly using a Metropolis-Hasting step. The remaining model parameters with non-normalized fully conditional distributions were updated univariately using adaptive rejection sampling. Simulation results showed that the estimated marginal posterior distributions covered well and placed high density to the true parameter values used in the simulation of data. In conclusion, the proposed method allows inferring additive genetic and environmental correlations, and doing multivariate genetic evaluation of a linear Gaussian trait and a survival trait.     

Independent chemical regulation of health and senescent spans in Drosophila

Curcumin feeding of Drosophila larvae or young adults inhibits TOR and other known longevity genes and induces an extended health span in a normal-lived Ra strain adult. Combining larval curcumin feeding with an adult dietary restriction (DR) diet does not yield an additive effect. The age-specific mortality rate is decreased and is comparable with that of genetically selected long-lived La animals. Feeding Ra adults with the drug their whole life, or only during the senescent span, results in a weak negative effect on median longevity with no increase in maximum lifespan. The La strain shows no response to this DR mimetic. Thus, curcumin acts in a life stage-specific manner to extend the health span. Histone deacetylase inhibitors decrease the longevity of Ra animals if administered over the health span only or over the entire adult lifespan, but these inhibitors increase longevity when administered in the transition or senescent spans. Their major effect is a reduction in the mortality rate of older flies, raising the possibility of reducing frailty in older organisms. Their life stage-specific effects are complementary to that of curcumin. Use of stage-specific drugs may enable targeted increases in health or senescent spans, and thus selectively increase the quality of life.     

Human senescence

Human life expectancy has increased dramatically through improvements in public health, housing, nutrition and general living standards. Lifespan is now limited chiefly by intrinsic senescence and its associated frailty and diseases. Understanding the biological basis of the ageing process is a major scientific challenge that will require integration of molecular, cellular, genetic and physiological approaches. This article reviews progress that has been made to date, particularly with regard to the genetic contribution to senescence and longevity, and assesses the scale of the task that remains.     

Economic and social correlates of infant mortality: A cross‐sectional and longitudinal analysis of 63 selected countries

Abstract

Genealogical records containing birth and death dates for completed families have been analyzed to compare the longevity of twins, sibs and parents. The data are restricted to twins and sibs who survived to adulthood and married. The findings, similar to those found with respect to fertility (Wyshak and White, 1969), show that twins, especially male twins, are disadvantaged in comparison with their male sibs. Sib‐sib and parent‐offspring correlation analysis confirmed that there is a genetic component in the determination of life span, but environmental factors contribute more to the total variation. No evidence of a stronger maternal than paternal effect was found. Twin bearers also lived longer than nontwin bearers. Even among persons who survived to age SO or more, parents of twins had more children and lived slightly longer than their twin and nontwin offspring. Regression analysis for persons who survived to SO or longer indicated that, in addition to life span of parents, secularity (year of death) and fertility (number of children borne) were the best predictors of longevity, though only a small proportion of the variation could be accounted for by these and other demographic variables. Life span has shown a consistent increase over time from the seventeenth century through the nineteenth century, while fertility has tended to decline. However, among persons surviving to age SO, when the relation between secularity and fertility and secularity and longevity is controlled, a significant correlation between fertility and longevity remains. This relation, observed in populations that did not practice voluntary family size limitation, would not be found in contemporary data. Maternal mortality accounted for the shorter life span of women than for men; eliminating its effect gives women a slight advantage. The fertility and longevity experience of migrants who survived to age SO is more favorable than that of persons who did not migrate.     

Estimating haplotype relative risks on human survival in population-based association studies

Association-based linkage disequilibrium (LD) mapping is an increasingly important tool for localizing genes that show potential influence on human aging and longevity. As haplotypes contain more LD information than single markers, a haplotype-based LD approach can have increased power in detecting associations as well as increased robustness in statistical testing. In this paper, we develop a new statistical model to estimate haplotype relative risks (HRRs) on human survival using unphased multilocus genotype data from unrelated individuals in cross-sectional studies. Based on the proportional hazard assumption, the model can estimate haplotype risk and frequency parameters, incorporate observed covariates, assess interactions between haplotypes and the covariates, and investigate the modes of gene function. By introducing population survival information available from population statistics, we are able to develop a procedure that carries out the parameter estimation using a nonparametric baseline hazard function and estimates sex-specific HRRs to infer gene-sex interaction. We also evaluate the haplotype effects on human survival while taking into account individual heterogeneity in the unobserved genetic and nongenetic factors or frailty by introducing the gamma-distributed frailty into the survival function. After model validation by computer simulation, we apply our method to an empirical data set to measure haplotype effects on human survival and to estimate haplotype frequencies at birth and over the observed ages. Results from both simulation and model application indicate that our survival analysis model is an efficient method for inferring haplotype effects on human survival in population-based association studies.     

The heritability of mortality due to heart diseases: a correlated frailty model applied to Danish twins.

Data of the Danish Twin Registry on monozygotic and dizygotic twins are used to analyse genetic and environmental influences on susceptibility to heart diseases for males and females, respectively. The sample includes 7955 like-sexed twin pairs born between 1870 and 1930. Follow-up was from 1 January 1943 to 31 December 1993 which results in truncation (twin pairs were included in the study if both individuals were still alive at the beginning of the follow-up) and censoring (nearly 40% of the study population was still alive at the end of the follow-up). We use the correlated gamma-frailty model for the genetic analysis of frailty to account for this censoring and truncation. During the follow-up 9370 deaths occurred, 3393 deaths were due to heart diseases in general, including 2476 deaths due to coronary heart disease (CHD). Proportions of variance of frailty attributable to genetic and environmental factors were analyzed using the structural equation model approach. Different standard biometric models are fitted to the data to evaluate the magnitude and nature of genetic and environmental factors on mortality. Using the best fitting model heritability of frailty (liability to death) was found to be 0.55 (0.07) and 0.53 (0.11) with respect to heart diseases and CHD, respectively, for males and 0.52 (0.10) and 0.58 (0.14) for females in a parametric analysis. A semi-parametric analysis shows very similar results. These analyses may indicate the existence of a strong genetic influence on individual frailty associated with mortality caused by heart diseases and CHD in both, males and females. The nature of genetic influences on frailty with respect to heart diseases and CHD is probably additive. No evidence for dominance and shared environment was found.     

Genotype-environment interaction for quantitative trait loci affecting life span in Drosophila melanogaster

The nature of genetic variation for Drosophila longevity in a population of recombinant inbred lines was investigated by estimating quantitative genetic parameters and mapping quantitative trait loci (QTL) for adult life span in five environments: standard culture conditions, high and low temperature, and heat-shock and starvation stress. There was highly significant genetic variation for life span within each sex and environment. In the analysis of variance of life span pooled over sexes and environments, however, the significant genetic variation appeared in the genotype x sex and genotype x environment interaction terms. The genetic correlation of longevity across the sexes and environments was not significantly different from zero in these lines. We estimated map positions and effects of QTL affecting life span by linkage to highly polymorphic roo transposable element markers, using a multiple-trait composite interval mapping procedure. A minimum of 17 QTL were detected; all were sex and/or environment-specific. Ten of the QTL had sexually antagonistic or antagonistic pleiotropic effects in different environments. These data provide support for the pleiotropy theory of senescence and the hypothesis that variation for longevity might be maintained by opposing selection pressures in males and females and variable environments. Further work is necessary to assess the generality of these results, using different strains, to determine heterozygous effects and to map the life span QTL to the level of genetic loci.     

A bivariate quantitative genetic model for a threshold trait and a survival trait

Many of the functional traits considered in animal breeding can be analyzed as threshold traits or survival traits with examples including disease traits, conformation scores, calving difficulty and longevity. In this paper we derive and implement a bivariate quantitative genetic model for a threshold character and a survival trait that are genetically and environmentally correlated. For the survival trait, we considered the Weibull log-normal animal frailty model. A Bayesian approach using Gibbs sampling was adopted in which model parameters were augmented with unobserved liabilities associated with the threshold trait. The fully conditional posterior distributions associated with parameters of the threshold trait reduced to well known distributions. For the survival trait the two baseline Weibull parameters were updated jointly by a Metropolis-Hastings step. The remaining model parameters with non-normalized fully conditional distributions were updated univariately using adaptive rejection sampling. The Gibbs sampler was tested in a simulation study and illustrated in a joint analysis of calving difficulty and longevity of dairy cattle. The simulation study showed that the estimated marginal posterior distributions covered well and placed high density to the true values used in the simulation of data. The data analysis of calving difficulty and longevity showed that genetic variation exists for both traits. The additive genetic correlation was moderately favorable with marginal posterior mean equal to 0.37 and 95% central posterior credibility interval ranging between 0.11 and 0.61. Therefore, this study suggests that selection for improving one of the two traits will be beneficial for the other trait as well.     

IS GREATER FEMALE LONGEVITY A GENERAL FINDING AMONG ANIMALS?

(A) There are data showing beyond question a gender gap, with women living longer than men, especially in economically developed societies. There is greater male vulnerability to the major causes of human death. (B) In lower animals there are data suggesting a female survival advantage to adult life in many species, but the observations do not consider longevity or survival to an advanced age. (C) In laboratory rodents kept under controlled conditions the relationship of sex to longevity is variable, with males sometimes showing greater longevity than females and with life span being dependent on factors like breeding and diet. (D) Similar genetic and hormonal processes operate in humans and in non-human mammals including the genetic mechanism of sex determination, the hormonal consequences of sex determination, and the effects of hormones on processes which affect longevity such as cholesterol levels and immune functions. (E) Causes of death in humans and animals are different, and it seems unlikely, therefore, that the same mechanisms could be determinants of longevity in all mammalian species. (F) Human male and female longevity continue to change, and it is likely that the gender gap will narrow, with societal and medical changes in post-industrial societies reducing the male disadvantages in behaviour and in the handling of cholesterol. (G) It remains an important question whether part of the gender gap seen in humans is based on other differences in the basic biology of males and females.     

High-resolution mapping of quantitative trait loci affecting increased life span in Drosophila melanogaster

Limited life span and senescence are near-universal characteristics of eukaryotic organisms, controlled by many interacting quantitative trait loci (QTL) with individually small effects, whose expression is sensitive to the environment. Analyses of mutations in model organisms have shown that genes affecting stress resistance and metabolism affect life span across diverse taxa. However, there is considerable segregating variation for life span in nature, and relatively little is known about the genetic basis of this variation. Replicated lines of Drosophila that have evolved increased longevity as a correlated response to selection for postponed senescence are valuable resources for identifying QTL affecting naturally occurring variation in life span. Here, we used deficiency complementation mapping to identify at least 11 QTL on chromosome 3 that affect variation in life span between five old (O) lines selected for postponed senescence and their five base (B) population control lines. Most QTL were sex specific, and all but one affected multiple O lines. The latter observation is consistent with alleles at intermediate frequency in the base population contributing to the response to selection for postponed senescence. The QTL were mapped with high resolution and contained from 12 to 170 positional candidate genes.     

Shortest-Path Network Analysis Is a Useful Approach toward Identifying Genetic Determinants of Longevity

Background

Identification of genes that modulate longevity is a major focus of aging-related research and an area of intense public interest. In addition to facilitating an improved understanding of the basic mechanisms of aging, such genes represent potential targets for therapeutic intervention in multiple age-associated diseases, including cancer, heart disease, diabetes, and neurodegenerative disorders. To date, however, targeted efforts at identifying longevity-associated genes have been limited by a lack of predictive power, and useful algorithms for candidate gene-identification have also been lacking.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We have utilized a shortest-path network analysis to identify novel genes that modulate longevity in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Based on a set of previously reported genes associated with increased life span, we applied a shortest-path network algorithm to a pre-existing protein–protein interaction dataset in order to construct a shortest-path longevity network. To validate this network, the replicative aging potential of 88 single-gene deletion strains corresponding to predicted components of the shortest-path longevity network was determined. Here we report that the single-gene deletion strains identified by our shortest-path longevity analysis are significantly enriched for mutations conferring either increased or decreased replicative life span, relative to a randomly selected set of 564 single-gene deletion strains or to the current data set available for the entire haploid deletion collection. Further, we report the identification of previously unknown longevity genes, several of which function in a conserved longevity pathway believed to mediate life span extension in response to dietary restriction.

Conclusions/Significance

This work demonstrates that shortest-path network analysis is a useful approach toward identifying genetic determinants of longevity and represents the first application of network analysis of aging to be extensively validated in a biological system. The novel longevity genes identified in this study are likely to yield further insight into the molecular mechanisms of aging and age-associated disease.     

Genetic influence on human lifespan and longevity

There is an intense search for longevity genes in both animal models and humans. Human family studies have indicated that a modest amount of the overall variation in adult lifespan (approximately 20–30%) is accounted for by genetic factors. But it is not known if genetic factors become increasingly important for survival at the oldest ages. We study the genetic influence on human lifespan and how it varies with age using the almost extinct cohorts of Danish, Finnish and Swedish twins born between 1870 and 1910 comprising 20,502 individuals followed until 2003–2004. We first estimate mean lifespan of twins by lifespan of co-twin and then turn to the relative recurrence risk of surviving to a given age. Mean lifespan for male monozygotic (MZ) twins increases 0.39 [95% CI (0.28, 0.50)] years for every year his co-twin survives past age 60 years. This rate is significantly greater than the rate of 0.21 (0.11, 0.30) for dizygotic (DZ) males. Females and males have similar rates and these are negligible before age 60 for both MZ and DZ pairs. We moreover find that having a co-twin surviving to old ages substantially and significantly increases the chance of reaching the same old age and this chance is higher for MZ than for DZ twins. The relative recurrence risk of reaching age 92 is 4.8 (2.2, 7.5) for MZ males, which is significantly greater than the 1.8 (0.10, 3.4) for DZ males. The patterns for females and males are very similar, but with a shift of the female pattern with age that corresponds to the better female survival. Similar results arise when considering only those Nordic twins that survived past 75 years of age. The present large population based study shows genetic influence on human lifespan. While the estimated overall strength of genetic influence is compatible with previous studies, we find that genetic influences on lifespan are minimal prior to age 60 but increase thereafter. These findings provide a support for the search for genes affecting longevity in humans, especially at advanced ages.     

Molecular mechanisms of yeast longevity.

The genetic analysis of yeast longevity has illuminated the underlying molecular mechanisms of aging that invoke the importance of metabolic regulation, genetic stability and stress resistance in determination of life span. The RAS genes have emerged as important modulators of life-maintenance processes and of life span itself.