The manifestations of the epidemic process in shigellosis and their theoretical interpretation]

This work, based on the retrospective analysis of shigellosis morbidity among organized groups of adults, as well as the whole population of the city, demonstrates the manifestations of the epidemic process. Water supply was common in the city, while water consumption was autonomous. The organized groups of adults did not use the products of the local milk-processing factory. The following facts were established. The dynamics of morbidity in Flexner's dysentery showed the change of dominating variants of the infective agent, which reflected the action of internal mechanisms of the development of the epidemic process. The role of Sonne dysentery in the total structure of shigellosis morbidity did not correlate with the consumption of milk and milk products. The theory of the self-regulation of the parasitic system and the theory of correspondence served as the basis for the theoretical interpretation of the manifestations of the epidemic process of Shigella infections. To ascertain the real correspondence of individual Shigella species to concrete transmission factors, further investigation are necessary.     

The results of a seroepidemiologic study of Newcastle dysentery

Differences in the monthly distribution in the number of seropositive individuals among children and adults in years with different intensity of the epidemic process have been revealed. Immunity in cases of dysentery caused by S. newcastle reflects the yearly and seasonal activation of the epidemic process in this Shigella infection both in children and adults, the seroconversion characteristics observed in the year of a high morbidity level being a more objective criterion indicating the beginning of the activation of the epidemic process in dysentery caused by S. newcastle in comparison with the commonly registered morbidity level.     

Nature of the epidemic process in Sonne and Flexner dysenteries and the causes of its induction

A comparative study of the epidemic process in Sh. sonnei and Sh. flexneri dysentery in different regions of the USSR revealed that the morbidity level of Sh. sonnei dysentery changed simultaneously in the regions under study at intervals of 2-3 years. Sh. flexneri dysentery showed morbidity rises occurring at intervals 6-8 years, and their occurrence did not coincide with the periods of elevated morbidity in Sh. sonnei dysentery. The data obtained in the cohort analysis and in the study of recurrent morbidity suggest that Sh. flexneri dysentery produces more pronounced postinfection immunity than Sh. sonnei dysentery, and the immunological factor probably affects the dynamics of the epidemic of these Shigella infections.     

Changes in the etiologic structure of Sonne shigellosis in its multiyear dynamics

The dynamics of Sonne dysentery morbidity in connection with changes in the structure of S. sonnei circulating among the population of Leningrad for the period of 1959-1984 was studied. Considering such sign as the leading fermentovar, three smaller periods were established in this stretch of time. Changes in the structure of circulating shigellae were accompanied by changes in the intensity and direction of tendencies or decrease in the manifest and asymptomatic forms of infection, as well as in annual morbidity levels and seasonal rises. A slow decrease in morbidity, which started in 1974, occurs in the presence of the predominant circulation of S. sonnei, fermentovar II, among the population; this fermentovar showed greater virulence and immunogenicity than other biovars. One of the decisive moments characterizing the dynamics of the epidemic process of Sonne dysentery is the intensity of the circulation of shigellae in the S-form, and the intensity of the population immunity of the host, linked with this fact, is subject to phasic fluctuations during each annual epidemic cycle.     

The formulation of epidemiological hypotheses by using the methods of multivariate statistical analysis

The work demonstrates the main approaches to the use of the methods of multidimensional analysis for the creation of a hypothesis on the mechanism of the epidemiological process of dysentery in organized groups. The main risk factors have been established, and their role in the formation of annual, all-the-year-round and seasonal dysentery morbidity has been quantitatively evaluated. The results of analysis show the existence of diverse variants of the alimentary route of the transmission of infection, maintaining the epidemic process of dysentery, and the necessity of differentiating measures for the prophylaxis of all-the-year-round and seasonal morbidity.     

Natural population migration and the dysentery epidemic process

The complex analysis of materials obtained in different regions and territories of the Far East makes it possible to establish that the natural migration of population affects dysentery morbidity by enhancing the susceptibility of human population to this infection. The internal mechanisms of the influence exerted on morbidity by the natural migration of population is disclosed from the viewpoint of the theory of the self regulation of the epidemic process.     

Epidemiology of dysentery in Dagestan]

Analysis of material on bacterial dysentery and other acute intestinal infections morbidity in the Dagestan ASSR for a period of 15 years showed high morbidity level and its variations, with reduction and elevation in individual years, and the leading role played by Shigella flexneri among the causative agents of dysentery. The greatest incidence of dysentery was revealed among children aged under one year and between 1 and 2 years. A high bacterial dysentery incidence was recorded in Dagestan throughout the whole year. However analysis of the seasonal dysentery curve showed the beginning of elevation in July, reaching the maximum in August, and lasting four months with a decline beginning in October. The persisting activity of the water route of dysentery transmission in the Dagestan ASSR requires particular attention to the organization of good-quality water-supply to the population of the republic.     

The structure of the population morbidity with specific intestinal infections in areas with different intensities in the development of the epidemic process and an evaluation of its manifestations]

The authors analyze the morbidity structure in five enteric infections (typhoid fever, dysentery caused by Shigella flexneri and Shigella sonnei, hepatitis A, and hepatitis E (non A, non B) with the fecal/oral mechanism of the agent transmission) in three towns of Turkmenia and in the town of Novomoskovsk, Tula Province. The incidence of S. sonnei dysentery was found higher in Novomoskovsk and that of the rest enteric infections under study in Turkmenia. The incidence of typhoid fever and hepatitis E was the highest among schoolchildren and adults, whereas preschool children suffered mostly from hepatitis A and S. sonnei dysentery. The authors discuss the specific features of the epidemic process manifestation in enteric infections.     

Patterns determining the dynamics of the epidemic process in Sonne dysentery and its relation to the type of causative agent]

The results of studying the dynamics of the epidemic process of dysentery, based on the data from 3 districts of Moscow, are presented. The study revealed the periodicity of 3 years in the course of the epidemic process of dysentery, occurring against the background of a considerable predominance of Sh. sonnei, biochemical type 2. The use of the cohort method for analyzing the age structure of dysentery cases showed the possibility of using this method to find out to what extent the epidemic process repeatedly affected the same groups of population.     

Manifestations of the cyclic nature of the epidemic process in dysentery

Different forms of dysentery, especially those caused by Sh. sonnei and Sh. flexneri, have been found to differ considerably in their cyclic recurrence. The development cycles of the epidemic processes of dysentery have an objective character, occur in the presence of any tendencies in the morbidity rate, and depend on the natural factors. Thus, the cycles of increase and decrease in morbidity are 3, 6, 9, 12 years for dysentery caused by Sh. sonnei and 6, 7, 8 years for dysentery caused by Sh. flexneri.     

Seeding efficiency of the causative agent of dysentery as an index of the intensity of the epidemiologic process]

A study was made of the character and extent of interrelationship between the indices of dysentery morbidity and the indices of the seeding efficiency of dysentery bacilli persons who did not apply for medical aid. Establishment of such interrelationship permitted the authors to suggest the use of a more objective index of the seeding efficiency of dysentery bacilli, along with morbidity indices, for the assessment of the intensity of the epidemic process in this infection. On the basis of investigations carried out the authors came to the conclusion that a tendency to the increase of dysentery incidence the last few years chiefly bore a "statistical" character and was due to the improved detection of patients and carriers.     

Formation of the dysentery epidemic process in three small towns]

Data are presented concerning the epidemiological analysis of Sonnei dysentery outbreaks in three towns connected by common nutrition and water supply. The epidemic processes in these populated localites were strongly interrelated. Possibilities of the effect of the water factor on the extent of Sonnei dysentery incidence were studied as well. The results of studies led to the conclusion on the presence of numerous action forms of the water factor which should be taken into consideration in carrying out prophylactic and antiepidemic measures in Sonnei dysentery.     

The definition of the forms of the epidemic process in intestinal infections]

A method for the identification of the forms of the epidemic process in dysentery (annual, seasonal and outbreak forms) has been worked out. The method is based on the calculation of the upper limits of annual and seasonal morbidity from the data on the period of several years with the use of the formulae of binomial distribution, serving as the mathematical model of alternative random values, such as morbidity. The comparison of actual morbidity for each year of the analyzed period with the upper limits of annual and seasonal morbidity helps identify the form of the epidemic process.     

To shigellosis epidemicity in East-Slovakian region

A set of 2227 strains of Shigella sonnei isolated from dysentery patients in East-Slovakian region from 1975 through 1977 was analyzed by age and sex of patients, place and time of isolation, and by phage type, colicin type and antibiogram patterns of strains. The study showed that some phage types tended to occur in association with certain colicin types, the most common combination being that of phage type 75 and col factór Ei (86% of strains). In 1976 and 1977 this phage type gradually replaced col factor Ia that in 1975 was predominant. The rise in the incidence of these strains was striking and pointed to their intensive circulation among the population of East-Slovakian districts, particularly among children of preschool age. A hypothetic assumption is that such changes in the phage type and colicin type patterns might precede the new epidemic wave of dysentery outbreaks in the population. That would also explain e.g. the irregularity of dysentery epidemic cycles encountered in Czechoslovakia during the decade from 1972 through 1982. The analysis of strains by pattern of antibiogram showed that the percentage of strains resistant to all antimicrobials and sulphonamides tested remained virtually constant over the three years under study and did not exceed 6% of strains. Only the strains monoresistant to tetracycline were found to show a striking rise in their incidence from 5% in 1975 to 23% in 1977. In the majority of cases they were S. sonnei strains with col factor Ei.     

Epidemiology of bacillary dysentery in Algeria. I. The epidemiological aspects of dysentery in Algeria

Bacterial dysentery plays an important role among infectious diseases in Algeria. A tendency to the growth of the morbidity rate has been observed. Dysentery is irregularly spread in different zones of the country. The highest morbidity rate is registered in the Sahara zone and in the eastern part of the country. The morbidity rate among the urban population is higher than among the rural population. S. flexneri prevail in the etiological structure of dysentery infection. Of all age groups, the highest morbidity rate is observed among children during the first 2 years of life. In recent years lethality varies between 2.9% and 7.5%. Patients are hospitalized mainly on the basis of clinical symptoms.     

Epidemiological analysis of hepatitis A morbidity

A retrospective epidemiological analysis of hepatitis A morbidity for many years among the population of two neighboring towns in the temperate climatic zone of the USSR has revealed the cyclic character of the epidemic process without a perceptible decrease in its extensiveness and has determined the high-risk groups, as well as the beginning of the seasonal rise of morbidity in these groups. The results of the study indicate that different levels of hepatitis A morbidity and risk groups can be observed in these two neighboring towns. At periods of a lower morbidity level the high-risk group embraces schoolchildren, and when morbidity is at a higher level the risk group includes schoolchildren and preschool children in organized groups. Among the latter the morbidity level is influenced by factors acting all the year round and among school children, by seasonal factors. The beginning of the seasonal rise of morbidity falls on August, while in organized groups of children of preschool age the seasonal rise of hepatitis A morbidity begins 1-1.5 months later. All prophylactic measures for controlling hepatitis A should be carried out with due regard to these features of the epidemic process.     

Method for the short-term prognosis of annual morbidity indices in Sonne-type dysentery

A method for making the short-term prognosis of the annual morbidity rate in Sonne dysentery, both total and among individual groups of population, is presented. The preliminary prognosis is based on the expected data on meteorological factors, supplied by the weather forecast service, and the final prognosis, on the actual prognostic factors for June-July of the current (prognosed) year.     

Relation of the epidemiological characteristics of dysentery to the biological properties of the causative agents

The main forms of the epidemic manifestation of dysentery induced by different causative agents in 1975-1980 were revealed. During these years the cases of dysentery induced by Shigella sonnei, biovar II, were found to prevail (82.0-90.1%) both at the periods between epidemics and at the periods of the seasonal rise of morbidity. The experimental infection of white mice by intraperitoneal inoculation revealed no relationship between the seasonal rise of morbidity in dysentery and the virulence of its causative agents.     

Population migrations and the epidemic process of Flexner and Sonne dysentery

Analysis of the materials from the Khabarovsk Territory for the representative period of 25 years (1956-1980) revealed the influence of the migration of the population on the level and dynamics of morbidity in different kinds of dysentery, Flexner's dysentery shown to occur more frequently than Sonne dysentery. Intensive migrations increase the proportion of susceptible persons among the population, thus facilitating the formation and circulation of Shigella strains with pronounced virulence.     

Multiyear and seasonal hepatitis A morbidity in different population age groups in certain areas

At the areas with high activity of hepatitis A (HA) epidemic process the duration of epidemic cycles was shown to differ, the intervals between the peaks of morbidity increasing in older age groups. The beginning of seasonal rises exceeding the average annual HA morbidity level in different age groups was found to depend on the activity of the epidemic process. At the areas with the highest activity of the epidemic process children aged 1-2 years were the first to be affected by the seasonal rise of HA. Stable direct correlation between HA morbidity levels at the beginning of seasonal rises and some markers indicative of unfavorable sanitary conditions (the size of the fly population, the purity of water samples deviating from the requirement of the Government Standard) during the preceding year was demonstrated.