Survivorship of a declining population of southern elephant seals, Mirounga leonina, in relation to age, sex and cohort

This study quantified both the age- and sex-specific survival rates of juveniles and adults, and tested for interannual differences in age-specific survival rates of the southern elephant seal population at Marion Island. Pups were tagged on an annual basis from 1983 onwards at Marion Island, and a consistent recapture program yielded data that was analysed using the software package MARK to obtain maximum-likelihood estimates of survival and capture probability. On average, 1st-year survival was 0.58 and 0.62, and survival rate averaged over the first 3 years of life, 0.69 and 0.74 for males and females, respectively. From years 4 to 9, the average survival rate was 0.66 and 0.75 for males and females, respectively. Survival estimates for elephant seals in their 10th–13th year are also presented, although these are based on very small sample sizes. Averages of age-specific survival estimates from the earlier (mostly 1983–1987 cohorts) and later (mostly 1988–1992 cohorts) periods were compared and considerable reductions were observed in 4th- and 5th-year male survival, and 4th-year female survival. The comparatively low adult survival is suggested as the proximate cause, and food limitation as deduced from the decline in survival of elephant seals with comparatively high energetic demands as the ultimate cause behind the population decline at Marion Island. Although not tied in with the decline of the population, 1987, 1990 and 1993 were identified as high-mortality years. Received: 14 December 1998 / Accepted: 14 June 1999     

Comprehensive passage (COMPASS) model: a model of downstream migration and survival of juvenile salmonids through a hydropower system

Migratory fish populations are impacted worldwide by river impoundments. Efforts to restore populations will benefit from a clear understanding of survival and migration process over a wide-range of river conditions. We developed a model that estimates travel time and survival of migrating juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) through the impounded Snake and Columbia rivers in the northwestern United States. The model allows users to examine the effects of river management scenarios, such as manipulations of river flow and spill, on salmonid survival. It has four major components: dam passage and survival, reservoir survival, fish travel time, and hydrological processes. The probability that fish pass through specific routes at a dam and route-specific survival probabilities were based on hydroacoustic, radio telemetry, PIT tag, and acoustic tag data. We related reservoir mortality rate (per day and per km) to river flow, water temperature, and percentage of fish passing through spillways and then fit the relationships to PIT-tag survival data. We related fish migration rate to water velocity, percentage of fish passing through spillways, and date in the season. We applied the model to two threatened “Evolutionarily Significant Units” (as defined under the US Endangered Species Act): Snake River spring/summer Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha Walbaum) and Snake River steelhead (O. mykiss Walbaum). A sensitivity analysis demonstrated that for both species survival through the hydropower system was responsive to water temperature, river flow, and spill proportion. The two species, however, exhibited different patterns in their response. Such information is crucial for managers to effectively restore migratory fish populations in regulated rivers. Guest editors: R. L. Welcomme & G. Marmulla Hydropower, Flood Control and Water Abstraction: Implications for Fish and Fisheries     

可视荧光硅橡胶标志用于西伯利亚鲟幼鱼标志的初步评价

在渔业和水产养殖的研究中, 常采用标记(Marking)或标志(Tagging)方法来区分不同的个体或种群[1]。标志技术在鱼类个体生长、存活和种群补充和生产力研究中广泛应用, 标志回捕(Mark recapture)已成为评估渔业资源状况和洄游习性研究中的重要研究手段[2-4]。此外, 标志技术在选择育种上也得到了应用, 用以快速有效地区分不同选育群体[5]。如何提高标志检测率和保持率, 以及怎样减少标志操作对研究对象生长和存活影响, 是研究和选择标志方法时应考虑的主要问题。     

Plasma levels of alpha-1-antichymotrypsin are elevated in patients with chronic heart failure,but are of limited prognostic value

Background

There is increasing interest in utilising novel markers of cardiovascular disease risk in patients with chronic heart failure (HF). Recently, it was shown that alpha-1-antichymotrypsin (ACT), an acute-phase protein and major inhibitor of cathpesin G, plays a role in the pathophysiology of HF and may serve as a marker for myocardial distress.

Objective

To assess whether ACT is independently associated with long-term mortality in chronic HF patients.

Methods

ACT plasma levels were categorised into quartiles. Survival times were analysed using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards regression, without and with correction for clinically relevant risk factors, including sex, age, duration of HF, kidney function (MDRD), ischaemic HF aetiology and NT-proBNP.

Results

Twenty healthy individuals and 224 patients (mean age 71 years, 72 % male, median HF duration 1.6 years) with chronic HF were included. In total, 159 (71 %) patients died. The median survival time was 5.3 (95 % CI 4.5–6.1) years. ACT was significantly elevated in patients (median 433 μg/ml, IQR 279–680) in comparison with controls (median 214 μg/ml, IQR 166–271; p < 0.001). Cox regression analysis demonstrated that ACT was not independently related to long-term mortality in chronic HF patients (crude HR = 1.03, 95 % CI 0.75–1.41, p = 0.871; adjusted HR = 1.12, 95 % CI 0.78–1.60, p = 0.552), which was confirmed by Kaplan-Meier curves.

Conclusion

ACT levels are elevated in chronic HF patients, but no independent association with long-term mortality can be established.     

Habitat use and growth of age-0 whitefish,Coregonus lavaretus,and cisco,C. albula

Synopsis Local American eel stocks were studied by mark-recapture methods along 600m of tidal creeks in Great Sippewisset Marsh, Falmouth, Massachusetts, during summer 1979. The estimated stock density was 350 eels, equivalent to 875 fish ha^-1, and movement of individual American eels over the five week study was usually less than 100 m. Large American eels were found to predominate in the wide marsh creeks whereas smaller American eels predominated in narrower creeks at the landward side of the marsh. Territoriality is suggested as a mechanism for maintaining differences in distribution of size classes and a limited home range.Senior author     

Characterization of species-specifically amplified SINEs in three salmonid species—Chum salmon,pink salmon,and kokanee: The local environment of the genome may be important for the generation of a dominant source gene at a newly retroposed locus

Short interspersed repetitive elements (SINEs), known as theHpaI family, are present in the genomes of all salmonid species (Kido et al.,Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 1991, 88: 2326–2330). Recently, we showed that the retropositional efficiency of the SINE family in the lineage of chum salmon is extraordinarily high in comparison with that in other salmonid lineages (Takasaki et al.,Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 1994, 91: 10153–10157). To investigate the reason for this high efficiency, we searched for members of theHpaI SINE family that have been amplified species-specifically in pink salmon. Since the efficiency of the species-specific amplification in pink salmon is not high and since other members of the same subfamily of SINEs were also amplified species-specifically in pink salmon, the actual sequence of this subfamily might not be the cause of the high retropositional efficiency of SINEs in chum salmon. Rather, it appears that a highly dominant source gene for the subfamily may have been newly created by retroposition, and some aspect of the local environment around the site of retroposition may have been responsible for the creation of this dominant source gene in chum salmon. Furthermore, a total of 11 sequences ofHpaI SINEs that have been amplified species-specifically in three salmon lineages was compiled and characterized. Judging from the distribution of members of the same-sequence subfamily of SINEs in different lineages and from the distribution of the different-sequence subfamilies in the same lineage, we have concluded that multiple dispersed loci are responsible for the amplification of SINEs. We also discuss the additional possibility of horizontal transmission of SINEs between species. The availability of the sets of primers used for the detection of the species-specific amplifications of the SINEs provides a convenient and reliable method for identification of these salmonid species.     

Demography of Verreaux’s sifaka in a stochastic rainfall environment

In this study, we use deterministic and stochastic models to analyze the demography of Verreaux’s sifaka (Propithecus verreauxi verreauxi) in a fluctuating rainfall environment. The model is based on 16 years of data from Beza Mahafaly Special Reserve, southwest Madagascar. The parameters in the stage-classified life cycle were estimated using mark-recapture methods. Statistical models were evaluated using information-theoretic techniques and multi-model inference. The highest ranking model is time-invariant, but the averaged model includes rainfall-dependence of survival and breeding. We used a time-series model of rainfall to construct a stochastic demographic model. The time-invariant model and the stochastic model give a population growth rate of about 0.98. Bootstrap confidence intervals on the growth rates, both deterministic and stochastic, include 1. Growth rates are most elastic to changes in adult survival. Many demographic statistics show a nonlinear response to annual rainfall but are depressed when annual rainfall is low, or the variance in annual rainfall is high. Perturbation analyses from both the time-invariant and stochastic models indicate that recruitment and survival of older females are key determinants of population growth rate.     

The population biology and ecology of the Homerus swallowtail, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Papilio (Pterourus) homerus</Emphasis>, in the Cockpit Country,Jamaica

The Homerus swallowtail, Papilio (Pterourus) homerus (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae), is an endangered species of butterfly endemic to Jamaica. As the largest species of the genus Papilio in the world and the largest butterfly in the Western Hemisphere, this rare butterfly once inhabited most of Jamaica but has now dwindled into two tiny populations: an eastern population, found where the Blue Mountains and John Crow Mountains merge, and a western population in the Cockpit Country. The present research focused on the previously unstudied Cockpit Country population of P. homerus; most previous information about this species is derived from studies of the eastern population. The purpose was to estimate the size of the remaining population in the Cockpit Country using MRR protocols, while making observations to better understand its ecology. Sampling consisted of carefully netting the butterfly, marking a permanent ink number on the wing (metallic Sharpie® marker), and recording winglength, wing condition, time, and sex. The population was found to be very small, estimated at fewer than 50 flying individuals. Many observations were made about the ecology of the species. These new data suggest a conservation plan is strongly needed, coupled with a breeding program to increase numbers of this extraordinary butterfly.     

Estimating the Rate of Transfer to a Voluntary Improvement or Rehabilitation Programme Following Capture

A method is developed for determining the effectiveness of counselling individuals to undertake a voluntary improvement or rehabilitation programme following capture. This is achieved by estimating the rate of transfer. Estimates are also obtained of the number who have undertaken the programme previously and those who have not undertaken the programme. For a closed population, the estimated rate of transfer is shown to be unbiased and its variance derived. The estimate is obtained under general conditions and, in the special case, when deaths of drug addicts occur, it is shown that the estimate is approximately unbiased. The theory could also be used to estimate the tag losses/gains due to migration in biological populations when capture-recapture techniques are used.     

Spatial Mark-Recapture Method in the Estimation of Crayfish Population Size

The mark-recapture method is considered for estimation of population size of slowly moving animals like crayfish. The Petersen type estimator for closed population is generalized for situations where recaptures are spatially dependent between the capture sites, and its variance approximation is derived using point processes as models for the population. The method of quadratic forms is suggested to be used as variance estimator. Finally, a trapping design is proposed where one trap at recapture is replaced by four adjacent traps. A simulation experiment is performed to explain the robusticity of the new trapping design against movements of animals.     

A non-invasive genetic evaluation of population size,natal philopatry,and roosting behavior of non-breeding eastern imperial eagles (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Aquila heliaca</Emphasis>) in central Asia

Roughly one-third of all eagle species are considered to be threatened or endangered, but the ecology of most eagles remains poorly understood. While the pronounced territoriality of breeding adults facilitates behavioral studies, the demography of non-breeding individuals (pre-adults and non-territorial floaters) is almost completely unknown. Traditionally, limited data on pre-adult and floater movement come from wing-tagging and/or telemetry studies. As an alternative to these methods we used genetic analyses of non-invasively collected feathers to investigate the population biology of non-breeding eastern imperial eagles (Aquila heliaca) in Kazakhstan. Microsatellite profiles of shed feathers indicate that eastern imperial eagles roost communally with other raptors. Furthermore, roosts are large and dynamic: 287 non-breeding eastern imperial eagles were detected in our sample, and a mark-recapture analysis estimated the total number to be 308 ± 8. The natal origins of these individuals were investigated by comparing their microsatellite profiles to those available for >90% of the eastern imperial eagle chicks hatched at the study site over the six previous breeding seasons. Only 4% of the individuals genetically matched a chick, suggesting that the reserve may serve as a critical refugium for pre-adults and itinerant floaters. Feathers have long been recognized as a suitable source of DNA, but few studies have used wide-scale, non-invasive collections of feathers (>1,000 samples) to investigate fundamental aspects of avian biology. Our research demonstrates that non-invasive genetic analyses of feathers can be used to evaluate population size, natal philopatry, and local movements of birds that are difficult to study using traditional means.     

Demographic dynamics of the afro-tropical pig-nosed frog, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Hemisus marmoratus</Emphasis>: effects of climate and predation on survival and recruitment

We studied the population ecology of the West African pig-nosed frog, Hemisus marmoratus, to understand the relative contributions of adult survival and recruitment to population growth rate in savannah frogs using mark-recapture modelling. We marked a total of 821 adult frogs over 6 years and recaptured 74 at least once between years. Between-year adult survival was sex-specific and varied between 0.06 and 0.53 for males and 0.07–0.41 for females. Adult survival was significantly associated with annual rainfall and is cause for concern if rainfall declines further in the study region as predicted by changes in the global climate. There was a significant interaction between rainfall and sex with dry weather having a stronger negative effect on males than females. Pig-nosed frogs experienced boom and bust years with a single decline more dramatic than increases. Recruitment (in situ and immigration; 0.67–0.88) was substantially more important than adult survival (0.12–0.33) in determining realised population growth. In situ recruitment was highly variable between years with 1–36% of eggs and tadpoles released by females into the pond surviving to metamorphosis. Years of low tadpole survival were associated with high numbers of predatory tortoises. Thus, like other pond-breeding anurans, pig-nosed frogs showed highly variable juvenile recruitment, low adult survival and density-independent effects on population growth by predators and weather.