Long-term demographic surveys reveal a consistent relationship between average occupancy and abundance within local populations of a butterfly metapopulation

Species distribution models are the tool of choice for large-scale population monitoring, environmental association studies and predictions of range shifts under future environmental conditions. Available data and familiarity of the tools rather than the underlying population dynamics often dictate the choice of specific method – especially for the case of presence–absence data. Yet, for predictive purposes, the relationship between occupancy and abundance embodied in the models should reflect the actual population dynamics of the modelled species. To understand the relationship of occupancy and abundance in a heterogeneous landscape at the scale of local populations, we built a spatio-temporal regression model of populations of the Glanville fritillary butterfly Melitaea cinxia in a Baltic Sea archipelago. Our data comprised nineteen years of habitat surveys and snapshot data of land use in the region. We used variance partitioning to quantify relative contributions of land use, habitat quality and metapopulation covariates. The model revealed a consistent and positive, but noisy relationship between average occupancy and mean abundance in local populations. Patterns of abundance were highly variable across years, with large uncorrelated random variation and strong local population stochasticity. In contrast, the spatio-temporal random effect, habitat quality, population connectivity and patch size explained variation in occupancy, vindicating metapopulation theory as the basis for modelling occupancy patterns in fragmented landscapes. Previous abundance was an important predictor in the occupancy model, which points to a spillover of abundance into occupancy dynamics. While occupancy models can successfully model large-scale population structure and average occupancy, extinction probability estimates for local populations derived from occupancy-only models are overconfident, as extinction risk is dependent on actual, not average, abundance.     

On the evolution of specialization with a mechanistic underpinning in structured metapopulations

We analyze the evolution of specialization in resource utilization in a discrete-time metapopulation model using the adaptive dynamics approach. The local dynamics in the metapopulation are based on the Beverton-Holt model with mechanistic underpinnings. The consumer faces a trade-off in the abilities to consume two resources that are spatially heterogeneously distributed to patches that are prone to local catastrophes. We explore the factors favoring the spread of generalist or specialist strategies. Increasing fecundity or decreasing catastrophe probability favors the spread of the generalist strategy and increasing environmental heterogeneity enlarges the parameter domain where the evolutionary branching is possible. When there are no catastrophes, increasing emigration diminishes the parameter domain where the evolutionary branching may occur. Otherwise, the effect of emigration on evolutionary dynamics is non-monotonous: both small and large values of emigration probability favor the spread of the specialist strategies whereas the parameter domain where evolutionary branching may occur is largest when the emigration probability has intermediate values. We compare how different forms of spatial heterogeneity and different models of local growth affect the evolutionary dynamics. We show that even small changes in the resource dynamics may have outstanding evolutionary effects to the consumers.     

Environment,but not migration rate,influences extinction risk in experimental metapopulations

Ecological theory suggests that several demographic factors influence metapopulation extinction risk, including synchrony in population size between subpopulations, metapopulation size and the magnitude of fluctuations in population size. Theoretically, each of these is influenced by the rate of migration between subpopulations. Here we report on an experiment where we manipulated migration rate within metapopulations of the freshwater zooplankton Daphnia magna to examine how migration influenced each of these demographic variables, and subsequent effects on metapopulation extinction. In addition, our experimental procedures introduced unplanned but controlled differences between metapopulations in light intensity, enabling us to examine the relative influences of environmental and demographic factors. We found that increasing migration rate increased subpopulation synchrony. We failed to detect effects of migration on population size and fluctuations in population size at the metapopulation or subpopulation level, however. In contrast, light intensity did not influence synchrony, but was positively correlated with population size and negatively correlated with population fluctuation. Finally, synchrony did not influence time to extinction, while population size and the magnitude of fluctuations did. We conclude that environmental factors had a greater influence on extinction risk than demographic factors, and that metapopulation size and fluctuation were more important to extinction risk than metapopulation synchrony.     

Comparison of reintroduction and enhancement effects on metapopulation viability

Metapopulation viability depends upon a balance of extinction and colonization of local habitats by a species. Mechanisms that can affect this balance include physical characteristics related to natural processes (e.g. succession) as well as anthropogenic actions. Plant restorations can help to produce favorable metapopulation dynamics and consequently increase viability; however, to date no studies confirm this is true. Population viability analysis (PVA) allows for the use of empirical data to generate theoretical future projections in the form of median time to extinction and probability of extinction. In turn, PVAs can inform and aid the development of conservation, recovery, and management plans. Pitcher's thistle (Cirsium pitcheri) is a dune endemic that exhibited metapopulation dynamics. We projected viability of three natural and two restored populations with demographic data spanning 15–23 years to determine the degree the addition of reintroduced population affects metapopulation viability. The models were validated by comparing observed and projected abundances and adjusting parameters associated with demographic and environmental stochasticity to improve model performance. Our chosen model correctly predicted yearly population abundance for 60% of the population‐years. Using that model, 50‐year projections showed that the addition of reintroductions increases metapopulation viability. The reintroduction that simulated population performance in early‐successional habitats had the maximum benefit. In situ enhancements of existing populations proved to be equally effective. This study shows that restorations can facilitate and improve metapopulation viability of species dependent on metapopulation dynamics for survival with long‐term persistence of C. pitcheri in Indiana likely to depend on continued active management.     

Historical perspectives on population genetics and conservation of three marine turtle species

Considerable phylogeographic and population genetic research has been conducted on marine turtles. Less attention, however, has been paid to the historical patterns and processes that have led to present patterns of genetic structure, and particularly, how these populations have responded to major climatic changes in the past. To address these questions, we analyzed previously published mitochondrial haplotype data independently for three marine turtle species, the loggerhead (Caretta caretta), hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata), and green turtle (Chelonia mydas). Considering all three species, we conducted analyses on a total of 657 individuals from 36 nesting beaches in the Atlantic and Mediterranean. Our results suggest that much of the contemporary genetic structure has been significantly affected by complex patterns of historical population subdivision, long-distance dispersal, and restricted geneflow. These inferences also imply that the climatic and sea level fluctuations during the Pleistocene may have had contrasting effects on genetic structure (e.g., fragmenting versus homogenizing) and on population sizes. Estimates of historical and current effective population sizes further highlight differential demographic responses across species to historical climatic cycles. Collectively, our results provide evidence for the occurrence of historical refugia through climatic cycles and complex historical metapopulation dynamics, and identify common and unique patterns of metapopulation structure across species. These historical patterns provide a basis for predictive estimates of metapopulation responses to habitat loss, population extirpation, and global climatic change.     

A test of the metapopulation model of the species–area relationship

Abstract Aim The species–area relationship is a ubiquitous pattern. Previous methods describing the relationship have done little to elucidate mechanisms producing the pattern. Hanski & Gyllenberg (Science, 1997, 275 , 397) have shown that a model of metapopulation dynamics yields predictable species–area relationships. We elaborate on the biological interpretation of this mechanistic model and test the prediction that communities of species with a higher risk of extinction caused by environmental stochasticity should have lower species–area slopes than communities experiencing less impact of environmental stochasticity. Methods We develop the mainland–island version of the metapopulation model and show that the slope of the species–area relationship resulting from this model is related to the ratio of population growth rate to variability in population growth of individual species. We fit the metapopulation model to five data sets, and compared the fit with the power function model and Williams's (Ecology, 1995, 76 , 2607) extreme value function model. To test that communities consisting of species with a high risk of extinction should have lower slopes, we used the observation that small‐bodied species of vertebrates are more susceptible to environmental stochasticity than large‐bodied species. The data sets were divided into small and large bodied species and the model fit to both. Results and main conclusions The metapopulation model showed a good fit for all five data sets, and was comparable with the fits of the extreme value function and power function models. The slope of the metapopulation model of the species–area relationship was greater for larger than for smaller‐bodied species for each of five data sets. The slope of the metapopulation model of the species–area relationship has a clear biological interpretation, and allows for interpretation that is rooted in ecology, rather than ad hoc explanation.     

Evolutionary branching of dispersal strategies in structured metapopulations

 Dispersal polymorphism and evolutionary branching of dispersal strategies has been found in several metapopulation models. The mechanism behind those findings has been temporal variation caused by cyclic or chaotic local dynamics, or temporally and spatially varying carrying capacities. We present a new mechanism: spatial heterogeneity in the sense of different patch types with sufficient proportions, and temporal variation caused by catastrophes. The model where this occurs is a generalization of the model by Gyllenberg and Metz (2001). Their model is a size-structured metapopulation model with infinitely many identical patches. We present a generalized version of their metapopulation model allowing for different types of patches. In structured population models, defining and computing fitness in polymorphic situations is, in general, difficult. We present an efficient method, which can be applied also to other structured population or metapopulation models. Received: 6 March 2001 / Revised version: 12 February 2002 / Published online: 17 July 2002     

Anthropogenic, ecological and genetic factors in extinction and conservation

Anthropogenic factors constitute the primary deterministic causes of species declines, endangerment and extinction: land development, overexploitation, species translocations and introductions, and pollution. The primary anthropogenic factors produce ecological and genetic effects contributing to extinction risk. Ecological factors include environmental stochasticity, random catastrophes, and metapopulation dynamics (local extinction and colonization) that are intensified by habitat destruction and fragmentation. Genetic factors include hybridization with nonadapted gene pools, and selective breeding and harvesting. In small populations stochastic factors are especially important, including the ecological factors of Allee effect, edge effects, and demographic stochasticity, and the genetic factors of inbreeding depression, loss of genetic variability, and fixation of new deleterious mutations. All factors affecting extinction risk are expressed, and can be evaluated, through their operation on population dynamics.     

Long‐term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia): survey methods,data management,and long‐term population trends

Long‐term observational studies conducted at large (regional) spatial scales contribute to better understanding of landscape effects on population and evolutionary dynamics, including the conditions that affect long‐term viability of species, but large‐scale studies are expensive and logistically challenging to keep running for a long time. Here, we describe the long‐term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) that has been conducted since 1991 in a large network of 4000 habitat patches (dry meadows) within a study area of 50 by 70 km in the Åland Islands in Finland. We explain how the landscape structure has been described, including definition, delimitation, and mapping of the habitat patches; methods of field survey, including the logistics, cost, and reliability of the survey; and data management using the EarthCape biodiversity platform. We describe the long‐term metapopulation dynamics of the Glanville fritillary based on the survey. There has been no long‐term change in the overall size of the metapopulation, but the level of spatial synchrony and hence the amplitude of fluctuations in year‐to‐year metapopulation dynamics have increased over the years, possibly due to increasing frequency of exceptional weather conditions. We discuss the added value of large‐scale and long‐term population studies, but also emphasize the need to integrate more targeted experimental studies in the context of long‐term observational studies. For instance, in the case of the Glanville fritillary project, the long‐term study has produced an opportunity to sample individuals for experiments from local populations with a known demographic history. These studies have demonstrated striking differences in dispersal rate and other life‐history traits of individuals from newly established local populations (the offspring of colonizers) versus individuals from old, established local populations. The long‐term observational study has stimulated the development of metapopulation models and provided an opportunity to test model predictions. This combination of empirical studies and modeling has facilitated the study of key phenomena in spatial dynamics, such as extinction threshold and extinction debt.     

Evolutionary suicide and evolution of dispersal in structured metapopulations

 We study the evolution of dispersal in a structured metapopulation model. The metapopulation consists of a large (infinite) number of local populations living in patches of habitable environment. Dispersal between patches is modelled by a disperser pool and individuals in transit between patches are exposed to a risk of mortality. Occasionally, local catastrophes eradicate a local population: all individuals in the affected patch die, yet the patch remains habitable. We prove that, in the absence of catastrophes, the strategy not to migrate is evolutionarily stable. Under a given set of environmental conditions, a metapopulation may be viable and yet selection may favor dispersal rates that drive the metapopulation to extinction. This phenomenon is known as evolutionary suicide. We show that in our model evolutionary suicide can occur for catastrophe rates that increase with decreasing local population size. Evolutionary suicide can also happen for constant catastrophe rates, if local growth within patches shows an Allee effect. We study the evolutionary bifurcation towards evolutionary suicide and show that a discontinuous transition to extinction is a necessary condition for evolutionary suicide to occur. In other words, if population size smoothly approaches zero at a boundary of viability in parameter space, this boundary is evolutionarily repelling and no suicide can occur. Received: 10 November 2000 / Revised version: 13 February 2002 / Published online: 17 July 2002     

Correlated extinctions, colonizations and population fluctuations in a highly connected ringlet butterfly metapopulation

 The persistence of metapopulations is likely to be highly dependent on whether population dynamics are correlated among habitat patches as a result of migration between patches and spatially-correlated environmental stochasticity (weather effects). We examined whether population dynamics of the ringlet butterfly, Aphantopus hyperantus, were synchronous in an area of approximately 0.5 km², with respect to extinction, colonization and population fluctuations. Monks Wood Butterfly Monitoring Scheme transect count data from 1973 to 1995, revealed (A) a major environmental perturbation, the drought of 1976, which caused synchronized extinctions of A. hyperantus in subsequent years, (B) synchronized recolonization in years following the large number of apparent extinctions, and (C) population changes by A. hyperantus were highly correlated in many of the 14 sections of the transect, presumably reflecting similar responses to environmental stochasticity, and the exchange of individuals among sections. However, extinction and population synchrony depended on habitat type. Following the 1976 drought, A. hyperantus apparently became extinct from the most open and most shady habitats it occupied, with some persistence in habitats of intermediate shading, thus showing retraction to core populations in central parts of an environmental gradient, albeit with an average shift to relatively open habitat. Populations at extreme ends of the environmental gradient occupied by A. hyperantus fluctuated least synchronously, suggesting a potential buffering effect of habitat heterogeneity, but this was not crucial to survival after the 1976 drought. Thus, not all habitats are equally important to persistence. Correlated temporal dynamics, variation in habitat quality and the interaction between habitat quality and temporal environmental stochasticity are important determinants of metapopulation persistence and should be incorporated in metapopulation models. Received: 26 April 1996 / Accepted: 17 July 1996     

Demographic consequences of population subdivision on the long-furred woolly mouse opossum (Micoureus paraguayanus) from the Atlantic Forest

Habitat destruction and fragmentation severely affected the Atlantic Forest. Formerly contiguous populations may become subdivided into a larger number of smaller populations, threatening their long-term persistence. The computer package VORTEX was used to simulate the consequences of habitat fragmentation and population subdivision on Micoureus paraguayanus, an endemic arboreal marsupial of the Atlantic Forest. Scenarios simulated hypothetical populations of 100 and 2000 animals being partitioned into 1–10 populations, linked by varying rates of inter-patch dispersal, and also evaluated male-biased dispersal. Results demonstrated that a single population was more stable than an ensemble of populations of equal size, irrespective of dispersal rate. Small populations (10–20 individuals) exhibited high instability due to demographic stochasticity, and were characterized by high rates of extinction, smaller values for metapopulation growth and larger fluctuations in population size and growth rate. Dispersal effects on metapopulation persistence were related to the size of the populations and to the sexes that were capable of dispersing. Male-biased dispersal had no noticeable effects on metapopulation extinction dynamics, whereas scenarios modelling dispersal by both sexes positively affected metapopulation dynamics through higher growth rates, smaller fluctuations in growth rate, larger final metapopulation sizes and lower probabilities of extinction. The present study highlights the complex relationships between metapopulation size, population subdivision, habitat fragmentation, rate of inter-patch dispersal and sex-biased dispersal and indicates the importance of gaining a better understanding of dispersal and its interactions with correlations between disturbance events.     

Metapopulation dynamics in a changing climate: Increasing spatial synchrony in weather conditions drives metapopulation synchrony of a butterfly inhabiting a fragmented landscape

Habitat fragmentation and climate change are both prominent manifestations of global change, but there is little knowledge on the specific mechanisms of how climate change may modify the effects of habitat fragmentation, for example, by altering dynamics of spatially structured populations. The long‐term viability of metapopulations is dependent on independent dynamics of local populations, because it mitigates fluctuations in the size of the metapopulation as a whole. Metapopulation viability will be compromised if climate change increases spatial synchrony in weather conditions associated with population growth rates. We studied a recently reported increase in metapopulation synchrony of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Finnish archipelago, to see if it could be explained by an increase in synchrony of weather conditions. For this, we used 23 years of butterfly survey data together with monthly weather records for the same period. We first examined the associations between population growth rates within different regions of the metapopulation and weather conditions during different life‐history stages of the butterfly. We then examined the association between the trends in the synchrony of the weather conditions and the synchrony of the butterfly metapopulation dynamics. We found that precipitation from spring to late summer are associated with the M. cinxia per capita growth rate, with early summer conditions being most important. We further found that the increase in metapopulation synchrony is paralleled by an increase in the synchrony of weather conditions. Alternative explanations for spatial synchrony, such as increased dispersal or trophic interactions with a specialist parasitoid, did not show paralleled trends and are not supported. The climate driven increase in M. cinxia metapopulation synchrony suggests that climate change can increase extinction risk of spatially structured populations living in fragmented landscapes by altering their dynamics.     

A unifying framework for metapopulation dynamics

Many biologically important processes, such as genetic differentiation, the spread of disease, and population stability, are affected by the (natural or enforced) subdivision of populations into networks of smaller, partly isolated, subunits. Such "metapopulations" can have extremely complex dynamics. We present a new general model that uses only two functions to capture, at the metapopulation scale, the main behavior of metapopulations. We show how complex, structured metapopulation models can be translated into our generalized framework. The metapopulation dynamics arising from some important biological processes are illustrated: the rescue effect, the Allee effect, and what we term the "antirescue effect." The antirescue effect captures instances where high migration rates are deleterious to population persistence, a phenomenon that has been largely ignored in metapopulation conservation theory. Management regimes that ignore a significant antirescue effect will be inadequate and may actually increase extinction risk. Further, consequences of territoriality and conspecific attraction on metapopulation-level dynamics are investigated. The new, simplified framework can incorporate knowledge from epidemiology, genetics, and population biology in a phenomenological way. It opens up new possibilities to identify and analyze the factors that are important for the evolution and persistence of the many spatially subdivided species.     

Reconstructing Local Population Dynamics in Noisy Metapopulations—The Role of Random Catastrophes and Allee Effects

Reconstructing the dynamics of populations is complicated by the different types of stochasticity experienced by populations, in particular if some forms of stochasticity introduce bias in parameter estimation in addition to error. Identification of systematic biases is critical when determining whether the intrinsic dynamics of populations are stable or unstable and whether or not populations exhibit an Allee effect, i.e., a minimum size below which deterministic extinction should follow. Using a simulation model that allows for Allee effects and a range of intrinsic dynamics, we investigated how three types of stochasticity—demographic, environmental, and random catastrophes— affect our ability to reconstruct the intrinsic dynamics of populations. Demographic stochasticity aside, which is only problematic in small populations, we find that environmental stochasticity—positive and negative environmental fluctuations—caused increased error in parameter estimation, but bias was rarely problematic, except at the highest levels of noise. Random catastrophes, events causing large-scale mortality and likely to be more common than usually recognized, caused immediate bias in parameter estimates, in particular when Allee effects were large. In the latter case, population stability was predicted when endogenous dynamics were actually unstable and the minimum viable population size was overestimated in populations with small or non-existent Allee effects. Catastrophes also generally increased extinction risk, in particular when endogenous Allee effects were large. We propose a method for identifying data points likely resulting from catastrophic events when such events have not been recorded. Using social spider colonies (Anelosimus spp.) as models for populations, we show that after known or suspected catastrophes are accounted for, reconstructed growth parameters are consistent with intrinsic dynamical instability and substantial Allee effects. Our results are applicable to metapopulation or time series data and are relevant for predicting extinction in conservation applications or the management of invasive species.     

Metapopulation dynamics in a regional population of the blue-winged grasshopper (Oedipoda caerulescens; Linnaeus, 1758)

For two consecutive years we registered the presence (or absence) of blue winged grasshoppers (Oedipoda caerulescens; Linnaeus, 1758) on 312 habitat patches of differing size in a region of more than 3000 ha. The data show that presence of grasshoppers on a habitat patch is dependent on patch size as well as on patch isolation. We used an ecological incidence model to describe the metapopulation dynamics of the regional population and derived the parameters for this model from presence-absence data and observations of Oedipoda dispersion. The analysis shows that local extinction of grasshopper populations is influenced by strong fluctuations of environmental conditions and that for a number of small patches in our region recolonization is important for the presence of O. caerulescens. Colonization probability, as derived using the incidence model, is in good agreement with estimates from a population genetical analysis.     

Asynchronization of local population dynamics and persistence of a metapopulation: a lesson from an endangered composite plant, Aster kantoensis

Fragmentation of a large habitat makes local populations less linked to others, and a whole population structure changes to a metapopulation. The smaller a local population is, the more strengthened extinction factors become. Then, frequent extinctions of local populations threaten persistence of the metapopulation unless recolonizations occur rapidly enough after local extinctions. Spatially structured models have been more widely used for predicting future population dynamics and for assessing the extinction risk of a metapopulation. In this article, we first review such spatially structured models that have been applied to conservation biology, focusing on effects of asynchronization among local population dynamics on persistence of the whole metapopulation. Second, we introduce our ongoing project on extinction risk assessment of an endangered composite biennial plant, Aster kantoensis, in the riverside habitat, based on a lattice model for describing its spatiotemporal population dynamics. The model predicted that the extinction risk of A. kantoensis depends on both the frequency of flood occurrence and the time to coverage of a local habitat by other competitively stronger perennials. Finally, we present a measure (Hassell and Pacala's CV ²) for quantifying the effect of asynchronization among local population dynamics on the persistence of a whole metapopulation in conservation ecology. Received: January 12, 2000 / Accepted: February 8, 2000     

Long-term dynamics in a metapopulation of the American pika

A 20-yr study of a metapopulation of the American pika revealed a regional decline in occupancy in one part of a large network of habitat patches. We analyze the possible causes of this decline using a spatially realistic metapopulation model, the incidence function model. The pika metapopulation is the best-known mammalian example of a classical metapopulation with significant population turnover, and it satisfies closely the assumptions of the incidence function model, which was parameterized with data on patch occupancy. The model-predicted incidences of patch occupancy are consistent with observed incidences, and the model predicts well the observed turnover rate between four metapopulation censuses. According to model predictions, the part of the metapopulation where the decline has been observed is relatively unstable and prone to large oscillations in patch occupancy, whereas the other part of the metapopulation is predicted to be persistent. These results demonstrate how extinction-colonization dynamics may produce spatially correlated patterns of patch occupancy without any spatially correlated processes in local dynamics or extinction rate. The unstable part of the metapopulation gives an empirical example of multiple quasi equilibria in metapopulation dynamics. Phenomena similar to those observed here may cause fluctuations in species' range limits.     

Evolution of Dispersal in a Structured Metapopulation Model in Discrete Time

In this article, a structured metapopulation model in discrete time with catastrophes and density-dependent local growth is introduced. The fitness of a rare mutant in an environment set by the resident is defined, and an efficient method to calculate fitness is presented. With this fitness measure evolutionary analysis of this model becomes feasible. This article concentrates on the evolution of dispersal. The effect of catastrophes, dispersal cost, and local dynamics on the evolution of dispersal is investigated. It is proved that without catastrophes, if all population–dynamical attractors are fixed points, there will be selection for no dispersal. A new mechanism for evolutionary branching is also found: Even though local population sizes approach fixed points, catastrophes can cause enough temporal variability, so that evolutionary branching becomes possible.     

Population dynamics of two small pelagic fish in the central-south area off Chile: delayed density-dependence and biological interaction

It is widely believed that environmental variability is the main cause for fluctuations in commercially exploited small pelagic fish populations around the world. Nevertheless, density-dependent factors also can drive population dynamics. In this paper, we analyzed thirteen years of a relative abundance index of two clupeoids fish populations coexisting in the central-south area off Chile, namely the common sardine, Strangomera bentincki, and anchovy, Engraulis ringens. We applied the classical diagnostic tools of time series analysis to the observed time-series. Also, the realized per capita population growth rate was studied with the aim of detecting the feedback structure that is characterizing the population dynamics of the two species. The analysis suggests that population fluctuations of the two species have an important density-dependent component, displaying first-order (direct density-dependent) and second-order (delayed density-dependent) simultaneously. The density-dependent component explained 70.5 and 55.6 % of the realized per capita population growth rate of common sardine and anchovy, respectively. The deterministic skeleton model showed an asymptotic convergence to equilibrium density. In presence of a stochastic environment, fluctuations were reproduced for the species showing a component of fluctuation with a period of 4 year. The intrinsic dynamics of each species is typical of interacting species resulting from trophic interactions. It is postulated that the second-order dynamics of S. bentincki and E. ringens in central-south Chile, may be the result from interactions with a specialist predator (the fishing fleet), interacting with exogenous environmental factors.