Benchmark Dose Profiles for Joint‐Action Quantal Data in Quantitative Risk Assessment

Summary Benchmark analysis is a widely used tool in public health risk analysis. Therein, estimation of minimum exposure levels, called Benchmark Doses (BMDs), that induce a prespecified Benchmark Response (BMR) is well understood for the case of an adverse response to a single stimulus. For cases where two agents are studied in tandem, however, the benchmark approach is far less developed. This article demonstrates how the benchmark modeling paradigm can be expanded from the single‐dose setting to joint‐action, two‐agent studies. Focus is on response outcomes expressed as proportions. Extending the single‐exposure setting, representations of risk are based on a joint‐action dose–response model involving both agents. Based on such a model, the concept of a benchmark profile (BMP) – a two‐dimensional analog of the single‐dose BMD at which both agents achieve the specified BMR – is defined for use in quantitative risk characterization and assessment. The resulting, joint, low‐dose guidelines can improve public health planning and risk regulation when dealing with low‐level exposures to combinations of hazardous agents.     

Simultaneous confidence bands for log‐logistic regression with applications in risk assessment

In risk assessment, it is often desired to make inferences on the low dose levels at which a specific benchmark risk is attained. Applications of simultaneous hyperbolic confidence bands for low‐dose risk estimation with quantal data under different dose‐response models (multistage, Abbott‐adjusted Weibull, and Abbott‐adjusted log‐logistic models) have appeared in the literature. The use of simultaneous three‐segment bands under the multistage model has also been proposed recently. In this article, we present explicit formulas for constructing asymptotic one‐sided simultaneous hyperbolic and three‐segment bands for the simple log‐logistic regression model. We use the simultaneous construction to estimate upper hyperbolic and three‐segment confidence bands on extra risk and to obtain lower limits on the benchmark dose by inverting the upper bands on risk under the Abbott‐adjusted log‐logistic model. Monte Carlo simulations evaluate the characteristics of the simultaneous limits. An example is given to illustrate the use of the proposed methods and to compare the two types of simultaneous limits at very low dose levels.     

Confidence bands for low-dose risk estimation with quantal response data

We study the use of simultaneous confidence bands for low-dose risk estimation with quantal response data, and derive methods for estimating simultaneous upper confidence limits on predicted extra risk under a multistage model. By inverting the upper bands on extra risk, we obtain simultaneous lower bounds on the benchmark dose (BMD). Monte Carlo evaluations explore characteristics of the simultaneous limits under this setting, and a suite of actual data sets are used to compare existing methods for placing lower limits on the BMD.     

Multiplicity-adjusted inferences in risk assessment: benchmark analysis with quantal response data

A primary objective in quantitative risk or safety assessment is characterization of the severity and likelihood of an adverse effect caused by a chemical toxin or pharmaceutical agent. In many cases data are not available at low doses or low exposures to the agent, and inferences at those doses must be based on the high-dose data. A modern method for making low-dose inferences is known as benchmark analysis, where attention centers on the dose at which a fixed benchmark level of risk is achieved. Both upper confidence limits on the risk and lower confidence limits on the "benchmark dose" are of interest. In practice, a number of possible benchmark risks may be under study; if so, corrections must be applied to adjust the limits for multiplicity. In this short note, we discuss approaches for doing so with quantal response data.     

Statistical Evaluation of Toxicological Experimental Design for Bayesian Model Averaged Benchmark Dose Estimation with Dichotomous Data

A method is presented to statistically evaluate toxicity study design for dose– response assessment aimed at minimizing the uncertainty in resulting Benchmark dose (BMD) estimates. Although the BMD method has been accepted as a valuable tool for risk assessment, the traditional no observed adverse effect level (NOAEL)/lowest observed adverse effective level (LOAEL) approach is still the principal basis for toxicological study design. To develop similar protocols for experimental design for BMD estimation, methods are needed that account for variability in experimental outcomes, and uncertainty in dose–response model selection and model parameter estimates. Based on Bayesian model averaging (BMA) BMD estimation, this study focuses on identifying the study design criteria that can reduce the uncertainty in BMA BMD estimates by using a Monte Carlo pre-posterior analysis on BMA BMD predictions. The results suggest that (1) as more animals are tested there is less uncertainty in BMD estimates; (2) one relatively high dose is needed and other doses can then be appropriately spread over the resulting dose scale; (3) placing different numbers of animals in different dose groups has very limited influence on improving BMD estimation; and (4) when the total number of animals is fixed, using more (but smaller) dose groups is a preferred strategy.     

Discriminant analysis for longitudinal data with multiple continuous responses and possibly missing data

Summary .  Multiple outcomes are often used to properly characterize an effect of interest. This article discusses model-based statistical methods for the classification of units into one of two or more groups where, for each unit, repeated measurements over time are obtained on each outcome. We relate the observed outcomes using multivariate nonlinear mixed-effects models to describe evolutions in different groups. Due to its flexibility, the random-effects approach for the joint modeling of multiple outcomes can be used to estimate population parameters for a discriminant model that classifies units into distinct predefined groups or populations. Parameter estimation is done via the expectation-maximization algorithm with a linear approximation step. We conduct a simulation study that sheds light on the effect that the linear approximation has on classification results. We present an example using data from a study in 161 pregnant women in Santiago, Chile, where the main interest is to predict normal versus abnormal pregnancy outcomes.     

Multiset sparse redundancy analysis for high‐dimensional omics data

Redundancy Analysis (RDA) is a well‐known method used to describe the directional relationship between related data sets. Recently, we proposed sparse Redundancy Analysis (sRDA) for high‐dimensional genomic data analysis to find explanatory variables that explain the most variance of the response variables. As more and more biomolecular data become available from different biological levels, such as genotypic and phenotypic data from different omics domains, a natural research direction is to apply an integrated analysis approach in order to explore the underlying biological mechanism of certain phenotypes of the given organism. We show that the multiset sparse Redundancy Analysis (multi‐sRDA) framework is a prominent candidate for high‐dimensional omics data analysis since it accounts for the directional information transfer between omics sets, and, through its sparse solutions, the interpretability of the result is improved. In this paper, we also describe a software implementation for multi‐sRDA, based on the Partial Least Squares Path Modeling algorithm. We test our method through simulation and real omics data analysis with data sets of 364,134 methylation markers, 18,424 gene expression markers, and 47 cytokine markers measured on 37 patients with Marfan syndrome.     

Analysis of continuous covariables in epidemiological studies: Dose‐response modelling and confounder adjustment

The analysis of continuous covariables with regression models commonly used in epidemiology are reviewed and compared. While some methods have been in use for decades, other more recent methods are not yet common or have not yet been formally described. It is shown that recently developed methods such as fractional polynomials and others are very useful to obtain dose‐response curves or for confounder adjustment. Different methods have their specific merits making it difficult to give general recommendations. The application of some of the methods is demonstrated with real data examples from epidemiological studies. Some suggestions for practical strategies in analysing continuous covariables are given.     

A semiparametric cure model for interval‐censored data

There is a growing interest in the analysis of survival data with a cured proportion particularly in tumor recurrences studies. Biologically, it is reasonable to assume that the recurrence time is mainly affected by the overall health condition of the patient that depends on some covariates such as age, sex, or treatment type received. We propose a semiparametric frailty‐Cox cure model to quantify the overall health condition of the patient by a covariate‐dependent frailty that has a discrete mass at zero to characterize the cured patients, and a positive continuous part to characterize the heterogeneous health conditions among the uncured patients. A multiple imputation estimation method is proposed for the right‐censored case, which is further extended to accommodate interval‐censored data. Simulation studies show that the performance of the proposed method is highly satisfactory. For illustration, the model is fitted to a set of right‐censored melanoma incidence data and a set of interval‐censored breast cosmesis data. Our analysis suggests that patients receiving treatment of radiotherapy with adjuvant chemotherapy have a significantly higher probability of breast retraction, but also a lower hazard rate of breast retraction among those patients who will eventually experience the event with similar health conditions. The interpretation is very different to those based on models without a cure component that the treatment of radiotherapy with adjuvant chemotherapy significantly increases the risk of breast retraction.     

An additive‐multiplicative mean residual life model for right‐censored data

Many studies have focused on determining the effect of the body mass index (BMI) on the mortality in different cohorts. In this article, we propose an additive‐multiplicative mean residual life (MRL) model to assess the effects of BMI and other risk factors on the MRL function of survival time in a cohort of Chinese type 2 diabetic patients. The proposed model can simultaneously manage additive and multiplicative risk factors and provide a comprehensible interpretation of their effects on the MRL function of interest. We develop an estimation procedure through pseudo partial score equations to obtain parameter estimates. We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators and conduct simulations to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method. The application of the procedure to a study on the life expectancy of type 2 diabetic patients reveals new insights into the extension of the life expectancy of such patients.     

Normal frailty probit model for clustered interval‐censored failure time data

Clustered interval‐censored data commonly arise in many studies of biomedical research where the failure time of interest is subject to interval‐censoring and subjects are correlated for being in the same cluster. A new semiparametric frailty probit regression model is proposed to study covariate effects on the failure time by accounting for the intracluster dependence. Under the proposed normal frailty probit model, the marginal distribution of the failure time is a semiparametric probit model, the regression parameters can be interpreted as both the conditional covariate effects given frailty and the marginal covariate effects up to a multiplicative constant, and the intracluster association can be summarized by two nonparametric measures in simple and explicit form. A fully Bayesian estimation approach is developed based on the use of monotone splines for the unknown nondecreasing function and a data augmentation using normal latent variables. The proposed Gibbs sampler is straightforward to implement since all unknowns have standard form in their full conditional distributions. The proposed method performs very well in estimating the regression parameters as well as the intracluster association, and the method is robust to frailty distribution misspecifications as shown in our simulation studies. Two real‐life data sets are analyzed for illustration.     

Use of in vivo genetic toxicity data for risk assessment

Mutagenicity studies have been used to identify specific agents as potential carconogens or other human health hazards; however, they have been used minimally for risk assessment or in determining permissible levels of human exposure. The poor predictive value of in vitro mutagenesis tests for carcinogenic activity and a lack of mechanistic understanding of the roles of mutagens in the induction of specific cancers have made these tests unattractive for the purpose of risk assessment. However, the limited resources available for carcinogen testing and large number of chemicals which need to be evaluated necessitate the incorporation of more efficient methods into the evaluation process. In vivo genetic toxicity testing can be recommended for this purpose because in vivo assays incorporate the metabolic activation pathways that are relevant to humans. We propose the use of a multiple end-point in vivo comprehensive testing protocol (CTP) using rodents. Studies using sub-acute exposure to low levels of test agents by routes consistent with human exposure can be a useful adjunct to methods currently used to provide data for risk assessment. Evaluations can include metabolic and pharmacokinetic endpoints, in addition to genetic toxicity studies, in order to provide a comprehensive examination of the mechanism of toxicity of the agent. A parallelogram approach can be used to estimate effects in non-accessible human tissues by using data from accessible human tissues and analogous tissues in animals. A categorical risk assessment procedure can be used which would consider, in order of priority, genetic damage in man, genetic damage in animals that is highly relevant to disease outcome (mutation, chromosome damage), and data from animals that is of less certain relevance to disease. Action levels of environmental exposure would be determined based on the lowest observed effect levels or the highest observed no effect levels, using sub-acute low level exposure studies in rodents. As an example, the known genotoxic effects of benzene exposure at low levels in man and animals are discussed. The lowest observed genotoxic effects were observed at about 1–10 parts per million for man and 0.04–0.1 parts per million in subacute animal studies. If genetic toxicity is to achieve a prominent role in evaluating carcinogens and characterizing germ-cell mutagens, minimal testing requirements must be established to ascertain the risk associated with environmental mutagen exposure. The use of the in vivo approach described here should provide the information needed to meet this goal. In addition, it should allow truly epigenetic or non-genotoxic carcinogens to be distinguished from the genotoxic carcinogens that are not detected by in vitro methods.     

Data‐independent acquisition‐based SWATH‐MS for quantitative proteomics: a tutorial

Many research questions in fields such as personalized medicine, drug screens or systems biology depend on obtaining consistent and quantitatively accurate proteomics data from many samples. SWATH‐MS is a specific variant of data‐independent acquisition (DIA) methods and is emerging as a technology that combines deep proteome coverage capabilities with quantitative consistency and accuracy. In a SWATH‐MS measurement, all ionized peptides of a given sample that fall within a specified mass range are fragmented in a systematic and unbiased fashion using rather large precursor isolation windows. To analyse SWATH‐MS data, a strategy based on peptide‐centric scoring has been established, which typically requires prior knowledge about the chromatographic and mass spectrometric behaviour of peptides of interest in the form of spectral libraries and peptide query parameters. This tutorial provides guidelines on how to set up and plan a SWATH‐MS experiment, how to perform the mass spectrometric measurement and how to analyse SWATH‐MS data using peptide‐centric scoring. Furthermore, concepts on how to improve SWATH‐MS data acquisition, potential trade‐offs of parameter settings and alternative data analysis strategies are discussed.     

Accounting for tagging‐to‐harvest mortality in a Brownie tag‐recovery model by incorporating radio‐telemetry data

The Brownie tag‐recovery model is useful for estimating harvest rates but assumes all tagged individuals survive to the first hunting season; otherwise, mortality between time of tagging and the hunting season will cause the Brownie estimator to be negatively biased. Alternatively, fitting animals with radio transmitters can be used to accurately estimate harvest rate but may be more costly. We developed a joint model to estimate harvest and annual survival rates that combines known‐fate data from animals fitted with transmitters to estimate the probability of surviving the period from capture to the first hunting season, and data from reward‐tagged animals in a Brownie tag‐recovery model. We evaluated bias and precision of the joint estimator, and how to optimally allocate effort between animals fitted with radio transmitters and inexpensive ear tags or leg bands. Tagging‐to‐harvest survival rates from >20 individuals with radio transmitters combined with 50–100 reward tags resulted in an unbiased and precise estimator of harvest rates. In addition, the joint model can test whether transmitters affect an individual's probability of being harvested. We illustrate application of the model using data from wild turkey, Meleagris gallapavo, to estimate harvest rates, and data from white‐tailed deer, Odocoileus virginianus, to evaluate whether the presence of a visible radio transmitter is related to the probability of a deer being harvested. The joint known‐fate tag‐recovery model eliminates the requirement to capture and mark animals immediately prior to the hunting season to obtain accurate and precise estimates of harvest rate. In addition, the joint model can assess whether marking animals with radio transmitters affects the individual's probability of being harvested, caused by hunter selectivity or changes in a marked animal's behavior.