Natural selection, fitness entropy, and the dynamics of coevolution

The coevolutionary dynamics of interacting populations were studied by combining continuous time Lotka-Volterra models of population growth with single-locus genetic models of weak selection. The effects of natural selection on population growth were evaluated using Ginzburg's fitness entropy function as a measure of the deviation of a population's initial allele frequencies from their polymorphic equilibrium values. This entropy measure was used to relate the dynamics of a community composed of evolving populations to the dynamics of a "reference community" whose populations are initially in genetic equilibrium. Specifically, a quantity called the "selective difference area" was defined as the total difference between the population size trajectories of a reference and evolving population. The selective difference area represents the amount of extra life a species would realize if the entire community were at genetic equilibrium. It was shown that this selective difference area is a simple linear function of the initial fitness entropies of each species. This prediction is independent of the strength of selection and holds for any arbitrary set of initial population densities. Numerical examples were presented to illustrate the results. Under the assumption of weak selection, a generalization for arbitrary population growth models was outlined.     

A multilocus analysis of intraspecific competition and stabilizing selection on a quantitative trait

The equilibrium structure of an additive, diallelic multilocus model of a quantitative trait under frequency- and density-dependent selection is derived. The trait is under stabilizing selection and mediates intraspecific competition as induced, for instance, by differential resource utilization. It is assumed that stabilizing selection is weak, but the strength of competition may be arbitrary relative to it. Density dependence is caused by population regulation, which may be of a very general kind. The number and effects of loci are arbitrary, and stabilizing selection is not necessarily symmetric with respect to the range of phenotypic values. All previously studied models of intraspecific competition for a continuum of resources known to the author reduce to a special case of the present model if overall selection is weak. Therefore, in this case our results are applicable as approximations to all these models. Our central result is the (nearly) complete characterization of the equilibrium and stability structure in terms of all parameters. It is derived under the sole assumption that selection is weak enough relative to recombination to ignore linkage disequilibrium. In particular, necessary and sufficient conditions on the strength of competition relative to stabilizing selection are found that ensure the maintenance of multilocus polymorphism and the occurrence of disruptive selection. In this case, explicit formulas for the number of polymorphic loci at equilibrium, the allele frequencies, the genetic variance, and the strength of disruptive selection are obtained. For two loci, the effects of linkage are investigated analytically; for several loci, they are studied numerically.     

Frequency- and density-dependent selection on a quantitative character

The equilibrium distribution of a quantitative character subject to frequency- and density-dependent selection is found under different assumptions about the genetical basis of the character that lead to a normal distribution in a population. Three types of models are considered: (1) one-locus models, in which a single locus has an additive effect on the character, (2) continuous genotype models, in which one locus or several loci contribute additively to a character, and there is an effectively infinite range of values of the genotypic contributions from each locus, and (3) correlation models, in which the mean and variance of the character can change only through selection at modifier loci. It is shown that the second and third models lead to the same equilibrium values of the total population size and the mean and variance of the character. One-locus models lead to different equilibrium values because of constraints on the relationship between the mean and variance imposed by the assumptions of those models.——The main conclusion is that, at the equilibrium reached under frequency- and density-dependent selection, the distribution of a normally distributed quantitative character does not depend on the underlying genetic model as long as the model imposes no constraints on the mean and variance.     

Efficient social contracts and group selection

We consider the Stag Hunt in terms of Maynard Smith’s famous Haystack model. In the Stag Hunt, contrary to the Prisoner’s Dilemma, there is a cooperative equilibrium besides the equilibrium where every player defects. This implies that in the Haystack model, where a population is partitioned into groups, groups playing the cooperative equilibrium tend to grow faster than those at the non-cooperative equilibrium. We determine under what conditions this leads to the takeover of the population by cooperators. Moreover, we compare our results to the case of an unstructured population and to the case of the Prisoner’s Dilemma. Finally, we point to some implications our findings have for three distinct ideas: Ken Binmore’s group selection argument in favor of the evolution of efficient social contracts, Sewall Wright’s Shifting Balance theory, and the equilibrium selection problem of game theory.     

Perfect simulation from population genetic models with selection

We consider using the ancestral selection graph (ASG) to simulate samples from population genetic models with selection. Currently the use of the ASG to simulate samples is limited. This is because the computational requirement for simulating samples increases exponentially with the selection rate and also due to needing to simulate a sample of size one from the population at equilibrium. For the only case where the distribution of a sample of size one is known, that of parent-independent mutations, more efficient simulation algorithms exist. We will show that by applying the idea of coupling from the past to the ASG, samples can be simulated from a general K-allele model without knowledge of the distribution of a sample of size one. Furthermore, the computation involved in generating such samples appears to be less than that of simulating the ASG until its ultimate ancestor. In particular, in the case of genic selection with parent-independent mutations, the computational requirement increases only quadratically with the selection rate. The algorithm is demonstrated by simulating samples at a microsatellite locus.     

Polymorphism with selection and genotype-dependent migration

For a single autosomal locus with multiple alleles both an island and a multiple-niche model with discrete nonoverlapping generations are formulated for the maintenance of genetic variability. Both models incorporate viability selection in an arbitrary way and allow for genotypic differences in the pertinent migration structure. Random drift is ignored, and mating is at random. A global analysis is given for the island model in the neutral case. For a subdivided population, conditions are derived for the existence of a protected polymorphism, and the model is examined in some special two-niche cases. Of particular consideration is the loss of neutral alleles due solely to population regulation and genotype-dependent migration, and the possible existence of equilibrium clines without selection.M. M. was supported by USPHS Pre-doctoral training grant No. GM 7197 to the University of Chicago; this work represents part of the author's Doctoral dissertation.     

Polymorphism with migration and selection

Summary Two single-locus, deterministic models with discrete nonoverlapping generations are formulated for the maintenance of genetic variation in each of two distinct biological situations. The first two models are applicable to an autosomal locus in an hermaphroditic plant population with mixed selfing and random mating. They describe the interaction of migration and viability selection for, respectively, an island migration model and for a subdivided population. Pollen as well as seed may disperse. Sufficient conditions are derived and discussed for the existence of protected polymorphism in the diallelic case. The remaining two models are pertinent to migration and selection at a single X-linked locus. An island model is again considered as well as that of a subdivided population. Mating is at random, selection occurs only through viability differences, and the migration structure for males and females may differ. For a diallelic population, protection conditions are derived and discussed vis-à-vis the autosomal case.M.M. was supported by a U.S. Public Health Service training grant (Grant No. GM780).     

Natural selection and fitness entropy in a density-regulated population

The entropy H(p_o,p*) of a population with the initial allele frequency p_o given the equilibrium polymorphic frequency p* has been proposed as a measure of natural selection. In the present paper, we have extended this concept to include a particular aspect of density-dependent selection. We compared size trajectory of a population initially at genetic equilibrium, N(t), with the size trajectories of populations not initially at p*,N(t), but which do eventually converge to a common equilibrium allele frequency and equilibrium density, N*. The following experimentally testable hyopthesis was established. The total area defined by the difference between the trajectories of N(t) and N(t) as they converge to N* is directly proportional to the fitness entropy when population size is transformed using the density-dependent fitness value. Two properties of this relationship were noted. First, it is independent of the magnitude of natural selection and, secondly, it does not depend upon the initial population density as long as the equilibrium and nonequilibrium populations have the same initial numbers. This hypothesis was evaluated with experimental data on the flour beetle Tribolium castaneum.     

Mutation and selection in a large population

In this paper we study a large, but finite population, in which mutation and selection occur at a single genetic locus in a diploid organism. We provide theoretical results for the equilibrium allele frequencies, their variances and covariances and their equilibrium distribution, when the population size is larger than the reciprocal of the mean allelic mutation rate. We are also able to infer that the equilibrium distribution of allele frequencies takes the form of a constrained multivariate Gaussian distribution. Our results provide a rapid way of obtaining useful information in the case of complex mutation and selection schemes when the population size is large. We present numerical simulations to test the applicability of our theoretical formulations. The results of these simulations are in very reasonable agreement with the theoretical predictions.     

Evolution at a multiallelic locus under migration and uniform selection

The semilinear parabolic system that describes the evolution of the gene frequencies in the diffusion approximation for migration and selection at a multiallelic locus is investigated. The population occupies a finite habitat of arbitrary dimensionality and shape. The drift and diffusion coefficients may depend on position, but the selection coefficients do not. It is established that if p is a uniform equilibrium point under pure selection, then p is a migration-selection equilibrium, and that generically the introduction of migration does not change the stability of p. It is also proved that if p is a uniform, globally asymptotically stable, internal equilibrium point under pure selection, then the gene frequencies converge to p when both migration and selection are present. Thus, in this case, after a sufficiently long time, there is no genetic indication of the spatial distribution of the population.     

Multilocus selection in subdivided populations I. Convergence properties for weak or strong migration

The dynamics and equilibrium structure of a deterministic population-genetic model of migration and selection acting on multiple multiallelic loci is studied. A large population of diploid individuals is distributed over finitely many demes connected by migration. Generations are discrete and nonoverlapping, migration is irreducible and aperiodic, all pairwise recombination rates are positive, and selection may vary across demes. It is proved that, in the absence of selection, all trajectories converge at a geometric rate to a manifold on which global linkage equilibrium holds and allele frequencies are identical across demes. Various limiting cases are derived in which one or more of the three evolutionary forces, selection, migration, and recombination, are weak relative to the others. Two are particularly interesting. If migration and recombination are strong relative to selection, the dynamics can be conceived as a perturbation of the so-called weak-selection limit, a simple dynamical system for suitably averaged allele frequencies. Under nondegeneracy assumptions on this weak-selection limit which are generic, every equilibrium of the full dynamics is a perturbation of an equilibrium of the weak-selection limit and has the same stability properties. The number of equilibria is the same in both systems, equilibria in the full (perturbed) system are in quasi-linkage equilibrium, and differences among allele frequencies across demes are small. If migration is weak relative to recombination and epistasis is also weak, then every equilibrium is a perturbation of an equilibrium of the corresponding system without migration, has the same stability properties, and is in quasi-linkage equilibrium. In both cases, every trajectory converges to an equilibrium, thus no cycling or complicated dynamics can occur.      

General analysis of frequency-dependent sexual selection at a multi-allelic locus

A general model is analyzed in which arbitrarily frequency-dependent selection acts on one sex of a diploid population with several alleles at one locus, as a result of viability or mating-success differences. The existence of boundary and polymorphic equilibria is examined, and conditions for local stability, internal and external, are obtained. The status of Hardy-Weinberg approximations in studying stability and approach to equilibria is also considered. The general principles are then applied to two specific models: one where genotypes fall into two phenotypic classes; and one with a hierarchy of dominance where viability and sexual selection are opposed. In the latter case it is found that, of all the equilibria present, there is one and only one which could possibly be stable: the existence of a unique globally stable equilibrium might then be inferred.     

Observability in strategic models of viability selection

Strategic models of frequency-dependent viability selection, in terms of mathematical systems theory, are considered as a dynamic observation system. Using a general sufficient condition for observability of nonlinear systems with invariant manifold, it is studied whether, observing certain phenotypic characteristics of the population, the development of its genetic state can be recovered, at least near equilibrium.     

Natural selection and density-dependent population growth

Natural selection was studied in the context of density-dependent population growth using a single locus, continuous time model for the rates of change of population size and allele frequency. The maximization principle of density-dependent selection was applied to a class of fitness expressions with explicit recruitment and mortality terms. Three general results were obtained: First, at low population densities, the genetic basis of selection is the difference between the mean recruitment rate and the mean mortality rate. Second, at densities much higher than the equilibrium population size, selection is expected to act to minimize the mean mortality rate. Third, as the population approaches its equilibrium density, selection is predicted to maximize the ratio of the mean recruitment rate to the mean mortality rate.     

Simulating natural selection in landscape genetics

Linking landscape effects to key evolutionary processes through individual organism movement and natural selection is essential to provide a foundation for evolutionary landscape genetics. Of particular importance is determining how spatially-explicit, individual-based models differ from classic population genetics and evolutionary ecology models based on ideal panmictic populations in an allopatric setting in their predictions of population structure and frequency of fixation of adaptive alleles. We explore initial applications of a spatially-explicit, individual-based evolutionary landscape genetics program that incorporates all factors--mutation, gene flow, genetic drift and selection--that affect the frequency of an allele in a population. We incorporate natural selection by imposing differential survival rates defined by local relative fitness values on a landscape. Selection coefficients thus can vary not only for genotypes, but also in space as functions of local environmental variability. This simulator enables coupling of gene flow (governed by resistance surfaces), with natural selection (governed by selection surfaces). We validate the individual-based simulations under Wright-Fisher assumptions. We show that under isolation-by-distance processes, there are deviations in the rate of change and equilibrium values of allele frequency. The program provides a valuable tool (cdpop v1.0; http://cel.dbs.umt.edu/software/CDPOP/) for the study of evolutionary landscape genetics that allows explicit evaluation of the interactions between gene flow and selection in complex landscapes.     

Models of sexual selection on a quantitative genetic trait when preference is acquired by sexual imprinting

The evolution of a quantitative genetic trait under stabilizing viability selection and sexual selection is modeled for a polygynous species in which female mating preferences are acquired by sexual imprinting on the parents and by exposure to the surviving population at large. Stabilizing viability selection acts equally on both sexes in the case of a sexually monomorphic trait and on males only in the case of a dimorphic trait. A genetically fixed sensory or perceptual bias defines the origin of the scale on which the trait is measured, and the possibility is incorporated that female preferences may deviate asymmetrically from the familiar-either toward or away from this origin. When viability selection is strong relative to sexual selection, the models predict that the mean trait value will evolve to the viability optimum. With intermediate ratios of the strength of viability to sexual selection, a stable equilibrium can occur on either side of this viability optimum, depending on the direction of asymmetry in female preferences. When viability selection is relatively weak and certain other conditions are also satisfied, runaway selection is predicted.     

Hard selection in haploid species

The formulation of hard selection is reviwed in the context of haploid viabilities and the criteria for stability of the fixation states are given. In contrast to soft selection, both fixation states can be simultaneously stable. However, this is not possible if the migration matrix is positive definite. In the case of only two demes there is at most one polymorphic equilibrium as occurs under soft selection, but the internal equilibrium may be unstable in contrast to the soft selection case. The question of hard versus soft protection is posed in the context of haploid viabilities and the principle hard protection implies soft protection holds with a similar degree of generality as in the diploid case.     

Evolutionarily stable strategies and short-term selection in Mendelian populations re-visited

This note concerns a one locus, two allele, random mating diploid population, subject to frequency-dependent viability selection. It is already known that in such a population, any evolutionarily stable strategies (ESS), if only accessible by the genotype-to-phenotype mapping, is the phenotypic image of a stable genetic equilibrium (Eshel, I. 1982. Evolutionarily stable strategies and viability selection in Mendelian populations. Theor. Popul. Biol. 22(2), 204-217; Cressman et al. 1996. Evolutionary stability in strategic models of single-locus frequency-dependent viability selection. J. Math. Biol. 34, 707-733). The opposite is not true. We find necessary and sufficient parametric conditions for global convergence to the ESS, but we also demonstrate conditions under which, although a unique, genetically accessible ESS exists, there is another, "non-phenotypic" genetically stable equilibrium.     

A multi-locus continuous-time selection model

Summary A continuous time selection model is formulated for a diploid monoecious population with multiple alleles at each of an arbitrary number of loci, incorporating differential fertility and mortality as well as arbitrary mating and age structure. The model is simplified in the case of age-independence and for the case of a stable age distribution. The age-independent model is examined in detail for the special case of multiple alleles at each of two loci. This model is analyzed under the assumptions of random mating and additive fertilities, with close attention given to the behavior of the system with respect to Hardy-Weinberg proportions and linkage equilibrium.M. M. was supported by a U.S. Public Health Service training grant (Grant No. GM780).     

The two-locus model of Gaussian stabilizing selection

We study the equilibrium structure of a well-known two-locus model in which two diallelic loci contribute additively to a quantitative trait that is under Gaussian stabilizing selection. The population is assumed to be infinitely large, randomly mating, and having discrete generations. The two loci may have arbitrary effects on the trait, the strength of selection and the recombination rate may also be arbitrary. We find that 16 different equilibrium patterns exist, having up to 11 equilibria; up to seven interior equilibria may coexist, and up to four interior equilibria, three in negative and one in positive linkage disequilibrium, may be simultaneously stable. Also, two monomorphic and two fully polymorphic equilibria may be simultaneously stable. Therefore, the result of evolution may be highly sensitive to perturbations in the initial conditions or in the underlying genetic parameters. For the special case of equal effects, global stability results are proved. In the general case, we rely in part on numerical computations. The results are compared with previous analyses of the special case of extremely strong selection, of an approximate model that assumes linkage equilibrium, and of the much simpler quadratic optimum model.