Generalized Linear Dynamics of a Plant-Parasitic Nematode Population and the Economic Evaluation of Crop Rotations

In 1-year experiments, the final population density of nematodes is usually modeled as a function of initial density. Often, estimation of the parameters is precarious because nematode measurements, although laborious and expensive, are imprecise and the range in initial densities may be small. The estimation procedure can be improved by using orthogonal regression with a parameter for initial density on each experimental unit. In multi-year experiments parameters of a dynamic model can be estimated with optimization techniques like simulated annealing or Bayesian methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). With these algorithms information from different experiments can be combined. In multi-year dynamic models, the stability of the steady states is an important issue. With chaotic dynamics, prediction of densities and associated economic loss will be possible only on a short timescale. In this study, a generic model was developed that describes population dynamics in crop rotations. Mathematical analysis showed stable steady states do exist for this dynamic model. Using the Metropolis algorithm, the model was fitted to data from a multi-year experiment on Pratylenchus penetrans dynamics with treatments that varied between years. For three crops, parameters for a yield loss assessment model were available and gross margin of the six possible rotations comprising these three crops and a fallow year were compared at the steady state of nematode density. Sensitivity of mean gross margin to changes in the parameter estimates was investigated. We discuss the general applicability of the dynamic rotation model and the opportunities arising from combination of the model with Bayesian calibration techniques for more efficient utilization and collection of data relevant for economic evaluation of crop rotations.     

Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s

Improved crop yield forecasts could enable more effective adaptation to climate variability and change. Here, we explore how to combine historical observations of crop yields and weather with climate model simulations to produce crop yield projections for decision relevant timescales. Firstly, the effects on historical crop yields of improved technology, precipitation and daily maximum temperatures are modelled empirically, accounting for a nonlinear technology trend and interactions between temperature and precipitation, and applied specifically for a case study of maize in France. The relative importance of precipitation variability for maize yields in France has decreased significantly since the 1960s, likely due to increased irrigation. In addition, heat stress is found to be as important for yield as precipitation since around 2000. A significant reduction in maize yield is found for each day with a maximum temperature above 32 °C, in broad agreement with previous estimates. The recent increase in such hot days has likely contributed to the observed yield stagnation. Furthermore, a general method for producing near‐term crop yield projections, based on climate model simulations, is developed and utilized. We use projections of future daily maximum temperatures to assess the likely change in yields due to variations in climate. Importantly, we calibrate the climate model projections using observed data to ensure both reliable temperature mean and daily variability characteristics, and demonstrate that these methods work using retrospective predictions. We conclude that, to offset the projected increased daily maximum temperatures over France, improved technology will need to increase base level yields by 12% to be confident about maintaining current levels of yield for the period 2016–2035; the current rate of yield technology increase is not sufficient to meet this target.     

Short and long term effects of simulated bullfinch damage on the cropping of Conference pear trees

Trials in which Conference pear trees were disbudded by hand to simulate bullfinch damage were carried out over 5 years to ascertain the short and long term effects on yield. The first crop following damage was depressed in proportion to the severity of bud loss; the second crop following damage was enhanced in proportion to bud loss but cumulative yields for the 2 years were still depressed, though not significantly so. Trees that were damaged annually for 5 years had yields depressed in every year, but crop loss was not consistently related to damage level after the first year. Trees that were damaged in alternate years had significantly depressed yields in the first year only. No difference could be detected between the yields of trees subjected to simulated bullfinch damage (clustered disbudding) and those of trees which had been evenly disbudded.     

The potential for gene flow between cultivated and wild sunflower (Helianthus annuus) in the United States

The transfer of genes from crop plants to their wild relatives via hybridization has emerged as one of the primary risks associated with the commercialization of genetically engineered crops. Although previous studies have revealed relatively high levels of hybridization when crop plants come into contact with their wild relatives, the frequency of such contact across the range of cultivation of any crop taxon is unknown. Here we report the results of a multi-year, range-wide survey of the potential for reproductive contact between cultivated and common sunflower (Helianthus annuus). The results of this work indicate that the opportunity for crop-wild hybridization exists throughout the range of sunflower cultivation. Approximately two-thirds of all cultivated fields occurred in close proximity to, and flowered coincidentally with, common sunflower populations. In these populations, the phenological overlap was extensive, with 52-96% of all wilds flowering coincidentally with the adjacent cultivar field. Moreover, there was morphological evidence of hybridization in 10-33% of the populations surveyed within a given year. These findings indicate that crop-wild hybridization is likely across the range of sunflower cultivation in the USA.     

Excessive rainfall leads to maize yield loss of a comparable magnitude to extreme drought in the United States

Increasing drought and extreme rainfall are major threats to maize production in the United States. However, compared to drought impact, the impact of excessive rainfall on crop yield remains unresolved. Here, we present observational evidence from crop yield and insurance data that excessive rainfall can reduce maize yield up to ?34% (?17 ± 3% on average) in the United States relative to the expected yield from the long‐term trend, comparable to the up to ?37% loss by extreme drought (?32 ± 2% on average) from 1981 to 2016. Drought consistently decreases maize yield due to water deficiency and concurrent heat, with greater yield loss for rainfed maize in wetter areas. Excessive rainfall can have either negative or positive impact on crop yield, and its sign varies regionally. Excessive rainfall decreases maize yield significantly in cooler areas in conjunction with poorly drained soils, and such yield loss gets exacerbated under the condition of high preseason soil water storage. Current process‐based crop models cannot capture the yield loss from excessive rainfall and overestimate yield under wet conditions. Our results highlight the need for improved understanding and modeling of the excessive rainfall impact on crop yield.     

Stability analysis of grain yield in barley (Hordeum vulgare) in the US mid-Atlantic Region

Stability of grain yield performance is an important characteristic in the selection of new crop cultivars. Information from cultivar trials, however, is seldom fully analysed for genotype by environment interactions and, therefore, information on stability of current crop cultivars is lacking. The objectives of this study were to investigate the stability of agronomic traits among genotypes of barley (Hordeum vulgare) across 17 environments (location‐years) in Maryland (USA) from 1994 through 1997 and to examine the effect of locations and years of testing on grain yield performance in this region. Significant differences were observed among barley cultivars and experimental lines for grain yield, plant height, and heading date. Grain yield was positively correlated with plant height and negatively correlated with heading date. Genotype x environment interactions measured through regression analysis were significant for grain yield, heading date and plant height, with the environmental component having the largest effect. Most barley genotypes tested (90%) had regression slopes for grain yield that did not differ from 1.0, indicating good potential for yield response under improving environmental conditions. The most widely grown cultivar in the mid‐Atlantic region, ‘Nomini’, had a regression slope that was higher than 1.0 for grain yield. This indicates that it tends to respond with increasingly higher yields under favorable conditions. In this study, the slope and the standard error of the slope were moderately correlated with grain yield. The genotype's coefficient of variation was not a good indicator of stability for this region. Grain yields of genotype entries common to all years and locations were correlated with corresponding yields at each of the locations and years to assess the relative performance of each location and year. Correlation coefficients across locations were relatively high (r=0.64) within each year of testing. Correlations between years for the same and across locations were generally much lower. The data presented here supports a testing program over more years rather than increased locations to fully characterise the performance of new cultivars.     

Impact of sulphur fertilisation on crop response to selenium fertilisation

UK wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) has a low selenium (Se) concentration and agronomic biofortification with Se is a proposed solution. A possible limitation is that UK wheat is routinely fertilised with sulphur (S), which may affect uptake of Se by the crop. The response of wheat to Se and S fertilisation and residual effects of Se were determined in field trials over 2 consecutive years. Selenium fertilisation at 20 g ha^?1 as sodium selenate increased grain Se by four to seven fold, up to 374 µg Se kg^?1. Sulphur fertilisation produced contrasting effects in 2 years; in year 1 when the crop was not deficient in S, grain Se concentration was significantly enhanced by S, whereas in year 2 when crop yield responded significantly to S fertilisation, grain Se concentration was decreased significantly in the S-fertilised plots. An incubation experiment showed that addition of sulphate enhanced the recovery of selenate added to soils, probably through a suppression of selenate transformation to other unavailable forms in soils. Our results demonstrate complex interactions between S and Se involving both soil and plant physiological processes; S can enhance Se availability in soil but inhibit selenate uptake by plants. Furthermore, no residual effect of Se fertiliser applied in year 1 was found on the following crop.     

The relative contributions of changes in yield and land area to increasing crop output

Global average yields of the world's main food crops have increased over the past 50 years, and these yield increases have varied over time. For most crops, yields have grown significantly faster during periods of higher demand growth, and the contribution of yield growth to output growth has varied between crops. These variations reflect the range of measures available to growers to enhance yields of each crop, which are typically not fully deployed during periods of low demand growth and low relative price. This paper applies two methods using consistent, long‐term historic relationships to demonstrate that crop yield, area and price changes are not independent, and that area changes and yield changes in response to market signals are different for different crops and regions. One of these methods is used to show the expected percentages of exogenous estimates of overall demand growth that will be met by yield growth and by land use change for a range of biofuel crops. The estimated percentage of incremental output growth delivered by yield growth is 78% for EU cereals, with the remainder being met by area growth.     

Crop yield response to climate change varies with cropping intensity

Projections of the response of crop yield to climate change at different spatial scales are known to vary. However, understanding of the causes of systematic differences across scale is limited. Here, we hypothesize that heterogeneous cropping intensity is one source of scale dependency. Analysis of observed global data and regional crop modelling demonstrate that areas of high vs. low cropping intensity can have systematically different yields, in both observations and simulations. Analysis of global crop data suggests that heterogeneity in cropping intensity is a likely source of scale dependency for a number of crops across the globe. Further crop modelling and a meta‐analysis of projected tropical maize yields are used to assess the implications for climate change assessments. The results show that scale dependency is a potential source of systematic bias. We conclude that spatially comprehensive assessments of climate impacts based on yield alone, without accounting for cropping intensity, are prone to systematic overestimation of climate impacts. The findings therefore suggest a need for greater attention to crop suitability and land use change when assessing the impacts of climate change.     

Evaluating spatial within plot crop variability for different management practices with an optical sensor?

Subsoil constraints to root growth exacerbate frequent water and nutrient limitations to crop yields in Mediterranean-type environments. Amelioration of subsoil constraints can relieve these limitations by opening root-access to subsoil water and nutrients. However, decisions in subsoil amelioration are hampered by seasonally variable yield responses in these environments. We used the APSIM model to analyse the impact of subsoil constraints on yield and yield variability. The simulated yield data were used to calculate the financial benefits of subsoil amelioration across several scenarios. There was a strong yield-dependence on accessible soil water governed by root depth. Root depth development was limited to a minimum of either the effect of subsoil constraints or the weather-dependent depth of the soil wetting front. Insufficient rainfall in dry years or in a drier region often resulted in shallow soil wetting fronts and correspondingly shallow roots even in the absence of subsoil compaction. In these situations, there is little response to subsoil amelioration. Positive yield responses and positive financial returns to subsoil amelioration are therefore greater in good rainfall years and are more likely in a wetter region. A yield response to amelioration is also greater in coarser textured sand than finer textured sandy loam in an average rainfall season because the same amount of rainfall results in a deeper wetting front in sand than in sandy loam. Hence, roots in a sand are required to grow deeper compared to a sandy loam to access the same amount of water and therefore benefited more from subsoil amelioration in an average rainfall year. In wet years, sands leach more nitrate than sandy loam, which decreases yields and the response to subsoil amelioration in sands is more than in the sandy loam. Environmental threats occur along with yield loss when roots cannot access subsoil water. These include increased nitrate leaching and deep drainage due to unused water remaining in the soil profile. By allowing roots to access deep soil water, ameliorating subsoil is expected to yield financial gains in average to good rainfall seasons and decrease the environmental risk of drainage and leaching loss. The financial gains are expected to offset potential financial losses in dry and dry finish seasons especially in coarser textured soils and wetter environment. Responsible Editor: Jan Vos.     

Establishment and Short-term Productivity of Annual and Perennial Bioenergy Crops Across a Landscape Gradient

Bioenergy crops may help achieve multiple energy, economic, and environmental objectives in the US Midwest, but a portfolio of crops must first be developed and tested in comparison to the current standard, maize (Zea mays L.). The nascent, but long-term and ongoing Landscape Biomass Project in Boone County, Iowa, USA examines five cropping systems including continuous maize, a modified maize–soy [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] rotation, nurse cropped maize–switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), double-cropped triticale (Triticosecale?×?Whit.)/sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench), and intercropped triticale–aspen (Crandon [Populus alba?×?Populus grandidentata]) over an elevation gradient. Here, we report perennial establishment and crop productivity across five landscape positions during the first 4 years (2009–2012) of this experiment. Perennials (switchgrass and aspen) established successfully across the gradient with minimal effect of landscape position. Continuous maize had the highest biomass yields both within and over growing seasons, but they declined over time. In comparison, the diversified and perennial systems had lower, but stable or increasing yields over time, despite extreme weather conditions. Landscape position did not consistently influence biomass yield; its effect depended on year and cropping system. Cropping system productivity was generally consistent across the landscape within a given year with greater variability between years. Findings help explain why landscape is often disregarded in Midwestern crop management: it does not seem to substantially drive crop, and thus economic, performance in the short term. Conversely, related Landscape Biomass studies find landscape influences important ecosystem functions (e.g., soil carbon storage) and should be an integral management consideration.     

Tillage,crop residue,legume rotation,and green manure effects on sorghum and millet yields in the semiarid tropics of Mali

Alternative soil management practices are needed in semi-arid West Africa to sustain soil fertility and cereal production while reducing the need for extended fallow periods and chemical fertilizers. An experiment was conducted at the Cinzana Station near Segou, Mali to assess the effects of tillage, crop residue incorporation and legume rotation on the growth and yield of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) and pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum L.) for a period of eight years on a loamy sand and a loam soil. The following treatments were compared under tied ridging and the traditional open ridging: continuous cereal with crop residue removed, continuous cereal with crop residue incorporated, cereal in rotation with cowpea (Vigna unguiculata (L.) Waip.), cereal in rotation with sesbania (Sesbania rostrata Bremek. & Oberm.), and cereal in rotation with dolichos (Dolichos lablab L.). Legumes in rotation were incorporated as green manures except cowpea which was removed after each harvest. Tied ridging improved cereal grain yield from 1022 kg ha⁻¹ with open ridging to 1091 kg ha⁻¹ on the loamy sand and from 1554 kg ha⁻¹ to 1697 kg ha⁻¹ on the loam, when averaged across management regimes and years of cropping. Incorporation of cereal residue at the beginning of the rainy season every other year had only small and inconsistent effects on cereal yield. Rotation with cowpea increased cereal grain and stover yields by 18 and 25%, respectively, on the loamy sand, and by 23% and 27%, respectively, on the loam compared to continuous cereal, when averaged across tillage regimes and years. Sesbania and dolichos performed similarly as green manures on both soils. Incorporation of these legumes as green manure at the end of the rainy season increased cereal grain and stover yields by 37% and 49%, respectively, on the loamy sand, and by 27% and 30%, respectively, on the loam, compared to cereal monoculture without organic amendment, when averaged across tillage regimes and years. A significant linear increase in cereal yield was observed during the eight years of the study on the loam soil when sesbania and dolichos green manures were incorporated. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Can Impacts of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation Strategies Be Accurately Quantified if Crop Models Are Annually Re-Initialized?

Estimates of climate change impacts on global food production are generally based on statistical or process-based models. Process-based models can provide robust predictions of agricultural yield responses to changing climate and management. However, applications of these models often suffer from bias due to the common practice of re-initializing soil conditions to the same state for each year of the forecast period. If simulations neglect to include year-to-year changes in initial soil conditions and water content related to agronomic management, adaptation and mitigation strategies designed to maintain stable yields under climate change cannot be properly evaluated. We apply a process-based crop system model that avoids re-initialization bias to demonstrate the importance of simulating both year-to-year and cumulative changes in pre-season soil carbon, nutrient, and water availability. Results are contrasted with simulations using annual re-initialization, and differences are striking. We then demonstrate the potential for the most likely adaptation strategy to offset climate change impacts on yields using continuous simulations through the end of the 21^st century. Simulations that annually re-initialize pre-season soil carbon and water contents introduce an inappropriate yield bias that obscures the potential for agricultural management to ameliorate the deleterious effects of rising temperatures and greater rainfall variability.     

Long‐term research avoids spurious and misleading trends in sustainability attributes of no‐till

Agricultural management recommendations based on short‐term studies can produce findings inconsistent with long‐term reality. Here, we test the long‐term environmental sustainability and profitability of continuous no‐till agriculture on yield, soil water availability, and N₂O fluxes. Using a moving window approach, we investigate the development and stability of several attributes of continuous no‐till as compared to conventional till agriculture over a 29‐year period at a site in the upper Midwest, US. Over a decade is needed to detect the consistent effects of no‐till. Both crop yield and soil water availability required 15 years or longer to generate patterns consistent with 29‐year trends. Only marginal trends for N₂O fluxes appeared in this period. Relative profitability analysis suggests that after initial implementation, 86% of periods between 10 and 29 years recuperated the initial expense of no‐till implementation, with the probability of higher relative profit increasing with longevity. Importantly, statistically significant but misleading short‐term trends appeared in more than 20% of the periods examined. Results underscore the importance of decadal and longer studies for revealing consistent dynamics and emergent outcomes of no‐till agriculture, shown to be beneficial in the long term.     

Quantifying effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning across times and places

Biodiversity loss decreases ecosystem functioning at the local scales at which species interact, but it remains unclear how biodiversity loss affects ecosystem functioning at the larger scales of space and time that are most relevant to biodiversity conservation and policy. Theory predicts that additional insurance effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning could emerge across time and space if species respond asynchronously to environmental variation and if species become increasingly dominant when and where they are most productive. Even if only a few dominant species maintain ecosystem functioning within a particular time and place, ecosystem functioning may be enhanced by many different species across many times and places (β‐diversity). Here, we develop and apply a new approach to estimate these previously unquantified insurance effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning that arise due to species turnover across times and places. In a long‐term (18‐year) grassland plant diversity experiment, we find that total insurance effects are positive in sign and substantial in magnitude, amounting to 19% of the net biodiversity effect, mostly due to temporal insurance effects. Species loss can therefore reduce ecosystem functioning both locally and by eliminating species that would otherwise enhance ecosystem functioning across temporally fluctuating and spatially heterogeneous environments.     

The important but weakening maize yield benefit of grain filling prolongation in the US Midwest

A better understanding of recent crop yield trends is necessary for improving the yield and maintaining food security. Several possible mechanisms have been investigated recently in order to explain the steady growth in maize yield over the US Corn‐Belt, but a substantial fraction of the increasing trend remains elusive. In this study, trends in grain filling period (GFP) were identified and their relations with maize yield increase were further analyzed. Using satellite data from 2000 to 2015, an average lengthening of GFP of 0.37 days per year was found over the region, which probably results from variety renewal. Statistical analysis suggests that longer GFP accounted for roughly one‐quarter (23%) of the yield increase trend by promoting kernel dry matter accumulation, yet had less yield benefit in hotter counties. Both official survey data and crop model simulations estimated a similar contribution of GFP trend to yield. If growing degree days that determines the GFP continues to prolong at the current rate for the next 50 years, yield reduction will be lessened with 25% and 18% longer GFP under Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP 2.6) and RCP 6.0, respectively. However, this level of progress is insufficient to offset yield losses in future climates, because drought and heat stress during the GFP will become more prevalent and severe. This study highlights the need to devise multiple effective adaptation strategies to withstand the upcoming challenges in food security.     

下辽河平原农业生态系统不同施肥制度的土壤养分收支

本试验是在潮棕壤上进行了10年的定位试验,研究了在养分循环再利用的基础上采取不同施肥制度下作物养分移出量,并结合施肥量计算出土壤中N,P,K养分收支。结果表明,在保持农业系统养分循环再利用的基础上,根据养分供给力设计化肥施用量,不仅可实现作物主产,而且可平衡土壤养分收支,避免土壤中肥料养分过剩（主要是N）进入环境,并揭示了我国我国在20世纪70年代以前大面积农田土壤缺P和80年代农田土壤大面积缺K的原因。     

Can Cover Crop Use Allow Increased Levels of Corn Residue Removal for Biofuel in Irrigated and Rainfed Systems?

Corn (Zea mays L.) residue removal at high rates can result in negative impacts to soil ecosystem services. The use of cover crops could be a potential strategy to ameliorate any adverse effects of residue removal while allowing greater removal levels. Hence, the objective of this study was to determine changes in water erosion potential, soil organic C (SOC) and total N concentration, and crop yields under early- and late-terminated cover crop (CC) combined with five levels of corn residue removal after 3 years on rainfed and irrigated no-till continuous corn in Nebraska. Treatments were no CC, early- and late-terminated winter rye (Secale cereale L.) CC, and 0, 25, 50, 75, and 100% corn residue removal rates. Complete residue removal reduced mean weight diameter (MWD) of water-stable aggregates (5 cm depth) by 29% compared to no removal at the rainfed site only, suggesting increased water erosion risk at rainfed sites. Late-terminated CC significantly increased MWD of water-stable aggregates by 27 to 37% at both sites compared to no CC, but early-terminated CC had no effect. The increased MWD with late-terminated CC suggests that CC when terminated late can offset residue removal-induced risks of water erosion. Residue removal and CC did not affect SOC and total soil N concentration. Particulate organic matter increased with late-terminated CC at the irrigated site compared to no CC. Complete residue removal increased irrigated grain yield by 9% in 1 year relative to no removal. Late-terminated CC had no effect on corn yield except in 1 year when yield was 8% lower relative to no CC due to low precipitation at corn establishment. Overall, late-terminated CC ameliorates residue removal-induced increases in water erosion potential and could allow greater levels of removal without reducing corn yields in most years, in the short term, under the conditions of this study.     

Improving Index-Based Drought Insurance in Varying Topography: Evaluating Basis Risk Based on Perceptions of Nicaraguan Hillside Farmers

This paper discusses a methodology to model precipitation indices and premium prices for index-based drought insurance for smallholders. Spatial basis risk, which is borne by the insured, is a problem, especially in variable topography. Also, site-specific drought risk needs to be estimated accurately in order to offer effective insurance cover and ensure financial sustainability of the insurance scheme. We explore farmers'' perceptions on drought and spatial climate variability and draw conclusions concerning basis risk with regards to the proposed methodology. There are technically many options to represent natural heterogeneity in index insurance contracts while serving the customer adequately and keeping transaction costs low.