Flowering phenology, fruiting success and progressive deterioration of pollination in an early-flowering geophyte

Spatio-temporal patterns of snowmelt and flowering times affect fruiting success in Erythronium grandiflorum Pursh (Liliaceae) in subalpine western Colorado, USA. From 1990 to 1995, I measured the consistency across years of snowmelt patterns and flowering times along a permanent transect. In most years since 1993, I have monitored fruit set in temporal cohorts (early- to late-flowering groups of plants) at one site. To assess ‘pollination limitation’, I have also conducted supplemental hand-pollination experiments at various times through the blooming season. The onset of blooming is determined by snowmelt, with the earliest years starting a month before the latest years owing to variation in winter snowpack accumulation. Fruit set is diminished or prevented entirely by killing frosts in some years, most frequently but not exclusively for the earlier cohorts. When frosts do not limit fruit set, pollination limitation is frequent, especially in the earlier cohorts. Pollination limitation is strongest for middle cohorts: it tends to be negated by frost in early cohorts and ameliorated by continuing emergence of bumble-bee queens in later cohorts. This lily appears to be poorly synchronized with its pollinators. Across the years of the study, pollination limitation appears to be increasing, perhaps because the synchronization is getting worse.     

Benefits to shorebirds from invasion of a non-native shellfish

Introductions of non-native species are seen as major threats to ecosystem function and biodiversity. However, invasions of aquatic habitats by non-native species are known to benefit generalist consumers that exhibit dietary switches and prey upon the exotic species in addition to or in preference to native ones. There is, however, little knowledge concerning the population-level implications of such dietary changes. Here, we show that the introduction of the Manila clam Tapes philippinarum into European coastal waters has presented the Eurasian oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus ostralegus with a new food resource and resulted in a previously unknown predator-prey interaction between these species. We demonstrate, with an individuals-based simulation model, that the presence of this non-native shellfish, even at the current low density, has reduced the predicted over-winter mortality of oystercatchers at one recently invaded site. Further increases in clam population density are predicted to have even more pronounced effects on the density dependence of oystercatcher over-winter mortality. These results suggest that if the Manila clam were to spread around European coastal waters, a process which is likely to be facilitated by global warming, this could have considerable benefits for many shellfish-eating shorebird populations.     

Ocean acidification disrupts induced defences in the intertidal gastropod Littorina littorea

Carbon dioxide-induced ocean acidification is predicted to have major implications for marine life, but the research focus to date has been on direct effects. We demonstrate that acidified seawater can have indirect biological effects by disrupting the capability of organisms to express induced defences, hence, increasing their vulnerability to predation. The intertidal gastropod Littorina littorea produced thicker shells in the presence of predation (crab) cues but this response was disrupted at low seawater pH. This response was accompanied by a marked depression in metabolic rate (hypometabolism) under the joint stress of high predation risk and reduced pH. However, snails in this treatment apparently compensated for a lack of morphological defence, by increasing their avoidance behaviour, which, in turn, could affect their interactions with other organisms. Together, these findings suggest that biological effects from ocean acidification may be complex and extend beyond simple direct effects.     

Changing seasonality and phenological responses of free-living male arctic ground squirrels: the importance of sex

Many studies have addressed the effects of climate change on species as a whole; however, few have examined the possibility of sex-specific differences. To understand better the impact that changing patterns of snow-cover have on an important resident Arctic mammal, we investigated the long-term (13 years) phenology of hibernating male arctic ground squirrels living at two nearby sites in northern Alaska that experience significantly different snow-cover regimes. Previously, we demonstrated that snow-cover influences the timing of phenological events in females. Our results here suggest that the end of heterothermy in males is influenced by soil temperature and an endogenous circannual clock, but timing of male emergence from hibernation is influenced by the timing of female emergence. Males at both sites, Atigun and Toolik, end heterothermy on the same date in spring, but remain in their burrows while undergoing reproductive maturation. However, at Atigun, where snowmelt and female emergence occur relatively early, males emerge 8 days earlier than those at Toolik, maintaining a 12-day period between male and female emergence found at each site, but reducing the pre-emergence euthermic period that is critical for reproductive maturation. This sensitivity in timing of male emergence to female emergence will need to be matched by phase shifts in the circannual clock and responsiveness to environmental factors that time the end of heterothermy, if synchrony in reproductive readiness between the sexes is to be preserved in a rapidly changing climate.     

Plasticity predicts evolution in a marine alga

Under global change, populations have four possible responses: ‘migrate, acclimate, adapt or die’ (Gienapp et al. 2008 Climate change and evolution: disentangling environmental and genetic response. Mol. Ecol. 17, 167–178. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-294X.2007.03413.x)). The challenge is to predict how much migration, acclimatization or adaptation populations are capable of. We have previously shown that populations from more variable environments are more plastic (Schaum et al. 2013 Variation in plastic responses of a globally distributed picoplankton species to ocean acidification. Nature 3, 298–230. (doi:10.1038/nclimate1774)), and here we use experimental evolution with a marine microbe to learn that plastic responses predict the extent of adaptation in the face of elevated partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂). Specifically, plastic populations evolve more, and plastic responses in traits other than growth can predict changes in growth in a marine microbe. The relationship between plasticity and evolution is strongest when populations evolve in fluctuating environments, which favour the evolution and maintenance of plasticity. Strikingly, plasticity predicts the extent, but not direction of phenotypic evolution. The plastic response to elevated pCO₂ in green algae is to increase cell division rates, but the evolutionary response here is to decrease cell division rates over 400 generations until cells are dividing at the same rate their ancestors did in ambient CO₂. Slow-growing cells have higher mitochondrial potential and withstand further environmental change better than faster growing cells. Based on this, we hypothesize that slow growth is adaptive under CO₂ enrichment when associated with the production of higher quality daughter cells.     

Swimming against the tide: resilience of a riverine turtle to recurrent extreme environmental events

Extreme environmental events (EEEs) are likely to exert deleterious effects on populations. From 1996 to 2012 we studied the nesting dynamics of a riverine population of painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) that experienced seven years with significantly definable spring floods. We used capture–mark–recapture methods to estimate the relationships between more than 5 m and more than 6 m flood events and population parameters. Contrary to expectations, flooding was not associated with annual differences in survival, recruitment or annual population growth rates of the adult female segment of the population. These findings suggest that female C. picta exhibit resiliency to key EEE, which are expected to increase in frequency under climate change.     

Long-term effects of ocean warming on the prokaryotic community: evidence from the vibrios

The long-term effects of ocean warming on prokaryotic communities are unknown because of lack of historical data. We overcame this gap by applying a retrospective molecular analysis to the bacterial community on formalin-fixed samples from the historical Continuous Plankton Recorder archive, which is one of the longest and most geographically extensive collections of marine biological samples in the world. We showed that during the last half century, ubiquitous marine bacteria of the Vibrio genus, including Vibrio cholerae, increased in dominance within the plankton-associated bacterial community of the North Sea, where an unprecedented increase in bathing infections related to these bacteria was recently reported. Among environmental variables, increased sea surface temperature explained 45% of the variance in Vibrio data, supporting the view that ocean warming is favouring the spread of vibrios and may be the cause of the globally increasing trend in their associated diseases.     

Predicting the fate of a living fossil: how will global warming affect sex determination and hatching phenology in tuatara?

How will climate change affect species'' reproduction and subsequent survival? In many egg-laying reptiles, the sex of offspring is determined by the temperature experienced during a critical period of embryonic development (temperature-dependent sex determination, TSD). Increasing air temperatures are likely to skew offspring sex ratios in the absence of evolutionary or plastic adaptation, hence we urgently require means for predicting the future distributions of species with TSD. Here we develop a mechanistic model that demonstrates how climate, soil and topography interact with physiology and nesting behaviour to determine sex ratios of tuatara, cold-climate reptiles from New Zealand with an unusual developmental biology. Under extreme regional climate change, all-male clutches would hatch at 100% of current nest sites of the rarest species, Sphenodon guntheri, by the mid-2080s. We show that tuatara could behaviourally compensate for the male-biasing effects of warmer air temperatures by nesting later in the season or selecting shaded nest sites. Later nesting is, however, an unlikely response to global warming, as many oviparous species are nesting earlier as the climate warms. Our approach allows the assessment of the thermal suitability of current reserves and future translocation sites for tuatara, and can be readily modified to predict climatic impacts on any species with TSD.     

How the timberline formed: altitudinal changes in stand structure and dynamics around the timberline in central Japan

Background and Aims

Altitudinal timberlines are thought to move upward by global warming, a crucial topic in ecology. Tall tree species (the conifer Abies mariesii and the deciduous broad-leaved Betula ermanii) dominate the sub-alpine zone between 1600 and 2500 m a.s.l., the timberline, on Mount Norikura in central Japan. Dwarf pine Pinus pumila dominates above the timberline to near the summit (3026 m a.s.l.). This study evaluated how the timberline formed on Mount Norikura by examining altitudinal changes in stand structure and dynamics around the timberline.

Methods

One hundred and twenty-five plots of 10 m × 10 m were established around the timberline (2350–2600 m a.s.l.). Trunk diameter growth rate during 6 years was examined for A. mariesii, B. ermanii and P. pumila. Mortality during this period and mechanical damage scars on the trunks and branches due to strong wind and snow were examined for A. mariesii only.

Key Results

The density, maximum trunk height and diameter of A. mariesii in plots decreased with altitude. The maximum trunk height of B. ermanii decreased with altitude, but density and maximum trunk diameter did not decrease. In contrast, the density of P. pumila abruptly increased from around the timberline. A strong negative correlation was found between the densities of P. pumila and tall tree species, indicating their interspecific competition. Trunk diameter growth rates of A. mariesii and B. ermanii did not decrease with altitude, suggesting that these two tall tree species can grow at the timberline. The ratio of trees with mechanical damage scars increased with altitude for A. mariesii, a tendency more conspicuous for larger trees. The mortality of larger A. mariesii was also greater at higher altitude. Tall tree species may not increase their trunk height and survive around the timberline because of mechanical damage.

Conclusions

This study suggests that the altitudinal location of the timberline is mainly affected by mechanical damage due to strong wind and snow rather than by growth limitation due to low temperature. Therefore, the timberline would not move upward even under global warming if these growth and mortality characteristics do not change for a long time.     

North Sea ecosystem change from swimming crabs to seagulls

A recent increase in sea temperature has established a new ecosystem dynamic regime in the North Sea. Climate-induced changes in decapods have played an important role. Here, we reveal a coincident increase in the abundance of swimming crabs and lesser black-backed gull colonies in the North Sea, both in time and in space. Swimming crabs are an important food source for lesser black-backed gulls during the breeding season. Inhabiting the land, but feeding mainly at sea, lesser black-backed gulls provide a link between marine and terrestrial ecosystems, since the bottom-up influence of allochthonous nutrient input from seabirds to coastal soils can structure the terrestrial food web. We, therefore, suggest that climate-driven changes in trophic interactions in the marine food web may also have ensuing ramifications for the coastal ecology of the North Sea.     

Climate change affects key nitrogen-fixing bacterial populations on coral reefs

Coral reefs are at serious risk due to events associated with global climate change. Elevated ocean temperatures have unpredictable consequences for the ocean''s biogeochemical cycles. The nitrogen cycle is driven by complex microbial transformations, including nitrogen fixation. This study investigated the effects of increased seawater temperature on bacteria able to fix nitrogen (diazotrophs) that live in association with the mussid coral Mussismilia harttii. Consistent increases in diazotroph abundances and diversities were found at increased temperatures. Moreover, gradual shifts in the dominance of particular diazotroph populations occurred as temperature increased, indicating a potential future scenario of climate change. The temperature-sensitive diazotrophs may provide useful bioindicators of the effects of thermal stress on coral reef health, allowing the impact of thermal anomalies to be monitored. In addition, our findings support the development of research on different strategies to improve the fitness of corals during events of thermal stress, such as augmentation with specific diazotrophs.     

Lake warming favours small-sized planktonic diatom species

Diatoms contribute to a substantial portion of primary production in the oceans and many lakes. Owing to their relatively heavy cell walls and high nutrient requirements, planktonic diatoms are expected to decrease with climate warming because of reduced nutrient redistribution and increasing sinking velocities. Using a historical dataset, this study shows that diatoms were able to maintain their biovolume with increasing stratification in Lake Tahoe over the last decades; however, the diatom community structure changed. Increased stratification and reduced nitrogen to phosphorus ratios selected for small-celled diatoms, particularly within the Cyclotella genus. An empirical model showed that a shift in phytoplankton species composition and cell size was consistent within different depth strata, indicating that altered nutrient concentrations were not responsible for the change. The increase in small-celled species was sufficient to decrease the average diatom size and thus sinking velocity, which strongly influences energy transfer through the food web and carbon cycling. Our results show that within the diverse group of diatoms, small-sized species with a high surface area to volume ratio were able to adapt to a decrease in mixing intensity, supporting the hypotheses that abiotic drivers affect the size structure of planktonic communities and that warmer climate favours small-sized diatom cells.     

Evidence that implicit assumptions of ‘no evolution’ of disease vectors in changing environments can be violated on a rapid timescale

Projected impacts of climate change on vector-borne disease dynamics must consider many variables relevant to hosts, vectors and pathogens, including how altered environmental characteristics might affect the spatial distributions of vector species. However, many predictive models for vector distributions consider their habitat requirements to be fixed over relevant time-scales, when they may actually be capable of rapid evolutionary change and even adaptation. We examine the genetic signature of a spatial expansion by an invasive vector into locations with novel temperature conditions compared to its native range as a proxy for how existing vector populations may respond to temporally changing habitat. Specifically, we compare invasions into different climate ranges and characterize the importance of selection from the invaded habitat. We demonstrate that vector species can exhibit evolutionary responses (altered allelic frequencies) to a temperature gradient in as little as 7–10 years even in the presence of high gene flow, and further, that this response varies depending on the strength of selection. We interpret these findings in the context of climate change predictions for vector populations and emphasize the importance of incorporating vector evolution into models of future vector-borne disease dynamics.     

Phenology of two interdependent traits in migratory birds in response to climate change

In migratory birds, arrival date and hatching date are two key phenological markers that have responded to global warming. A body of knowledge exists relating these traits to evolutionary pressures. In this study, we formalize this knowledge into general mathematical assumptions, and use them in an ecoevolutionary model. In contrast to previous models, this study novelty accounts for both traits—arrival date and hatching date—and the interdependence between them, revealing when one, the other or both will respond to climate. For all models sharing the assumptions, the following phenological responses will occur. First, if the nestling-prey peak is late enough, hatching is synchronous with, and arrival date evolves independently of, prey phenology. Second, when resource availability constrains the length of the pre-laying period, hatching is adaptively asynchronous with prey phenology. Predictions for both traits compare well with empirical observations. In response to advancing prey phenology, arrival date may advance, remain unchanged, or even become delayed; the latter occurring when egg-laying resources are only available relatively late in the season. The model shows that asynchronous hatching and unresponsive arrival date are not sufficient evidence that phenological adaptation is constrained. The work provides a framework for exploring microevolution of interdependent phenological traits.     

Low genetic diversity in pygmy blue whales is due to climate-induced diversification rather than anthropogenic impacts

Unusually low genetic diversity can be a warning of an urgent need to mitigate causative anthropogenic activities. However, current low levels of genetic diversity in a population could also be due to natural historical events, including recent evolutionary divergence, or long-term persistence at a small population size. Here, we determine whether the relatively low genetic diversity of pygmy blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus brevicauda) in Australia is due to natural causes or overexploitation. We apply recently developed analytical approaches in the largest genetic dataset ever compiled to study blue whales (297 samples collected after whaling and representing lineages from Australia, Antarctica and Chile). We find that low levels of genetic diversity in Australia are due to a natural founder event from Antarctic blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus intermedia) that occurred around the Last Glacial Maximum, followed by evolutionary divergence. Historical climate change has therefore driven the evolution of blue whales into genetically, phenotypically and behaviourally distinct lineages that will likely be influenced by future climate change.