广义模型及分类回归树在物种分布模拟中的应用与比较

比较3个应用较广的模拟物种地理分布模型:广义线性模型(GLM)、广义加法模型(GAM)与分类回归树(CART)对中国树种地理分布模拟的优劣,以提出更为合适的模拟物种地理分布模型,并用于预测气候变化对物种地理分布的影响。3个模型对中国15种树种地理分布的模拟研究表明:除对油松、辽东栎分布的模拟精度稍差外,对其余树种分布的模拟精度均较高,其中以GAM模型最好。结合地理信息系统(GIS),比较分析了这3个模型对青冈、木荷、红松和油松4种树种的地理分布模拟效果,结果亦表明:这3个模型均能很好模拟青冈和木荷的地理分布,而GLM模型对红松分布的模拟结果不太理想,3个模型对油松分布的模拟结果均不甚理想,其中以GLM模型最差。基于3个模型对未来气候变化下青冈与蒙古栎地理分布的预测表明:GLM模型与GAM模型对青冈分布的预测结果较为接近,青冈在未来气候变化情景下向西和向北扩展,而CART模型预测青冈在未来气候变化情景下除有向西、向北扩展趋势外,广东和广西南部的青冈分布区将消失;3个模型均预测蒙古栎在未来气候变化情景下向西扩展,扩展面积的大小为:模型的模拟面积>模型>模型。     

Is there spatial segregation between reproductive groups of southern right whales along the coastline of southern Brazil?

Santa Catarina State, in southern Brazil, is an important breeding ground for the southern right whale and it is possible to record mother-calf pairs and unaccompanied adults that migrate to this coast to either give birth, mate, or socialize. From the geographical position of the sightings, spatial segregation was evaluated between mother-calf pairs and unaccompanied whales. Using GAM, we analyzed 15 years of aerial survey data from 2003 to 2018. The study area (780 km²) was divided into 500 × 500 m grid cells. Whale count per grid cell was modeled using a set of explanatory variables. The explanatory variables of latitude, coast distance, seabed, and maximum SST were selected for both classes. However, coast type was also selected for unaccompanied whales, while coast linearity and bathymetric slope were additionally selected for mother-calf pairs. The response curves fitted by models indicated a certain degree of spatial segregation, by which mother-calf pairs remained closer to the coast, where the curve peak is reached at 500 m from the coast, compared to unaccompanied whales where the curve peaked near 1,000 m from the coast. Also, unaccompanied whales more frequently appeared in the southern boundaries of the study area, at latitudes south from 28.4°S.     

There Is No Need To Be Normal: Generalized Linear Models of Natural Variation

Both ecological field studies and attempts to extrapolate from laboratory experiments to natural populations generally encounter the high degree of natural variability and chaotic behavior that typify natural ecosystems. Regardless of this variability and non-normal distribution, most statistical models of natural systems use normal error which assumes independence between the variance and mean. However, environmental data are often random or clustered and are better described by probability distributions which have more realistic variance to mean relationships. Until recently statistical software packages modeled only with normal error and researchers had to assume approximate normality on the original or transformed scale of measurement and had to live with the consequences of often incorrectly assuming independence between the variance and mean. Recent developments in statistical software allow researchers to use generalized linear models (GLMs) and analysis can now proceed with probability distributions from the exponential family which more realistically describe natural conditions: binomial (even distribution with variance less than mean), Poisson (random distribution with variance equal mean), negative binomial (clustered distribution with variance greater than mean). GLMs fit parameters on the original scale of measurement and eliminate the need for obfuscating transformations, reduce bias for proportions with unequal sample size, and provide realistic estimates of variance which can increase power of tests. Because GLMs permit modeling according to the non-normal behavior of natural systems and obviate the need for normality assumptions, they will likely become a widely used tool for analyzing toxicity data. To demonstrate the broad-scale utility of GLMs, we present several examples where the use of GLMs improved the statistical power of field and laboratory studies to document the rapid ecological recovery of Prince William Sound following the Exxon Valdez oil spill.     

Are niche‐based species distribution models transferable in space?

Aim To assess the geographical transferability of niche‐based species distribution models fitted with two modelling techniques. Location Two distinct geographical study areas in Switzerland and Austria, in the subalpine and alpine belts. Methods Generalized linear and generalized additive models (GLM and GAM) with a binomial probability distribution and a logit link were fitted for 54 plant species, based on topoclimatic predictor variables. These models were then evaluated quantitatively and used for spatially explicit predictions within (internal evaluation and prediction) and between (external evaluation and prediction) the two regions. Comparisons of evaluations and spatial predictions between regions and models were conducted in order to test if species and methods meet the criteria of full transferability. By full transferability, we mean that: (1) the internal evaluation of models fitted in region A and B must be similar; (2) a model fitted in region A must at least retain a comparable external evaluation when projected into region B, and vice‐versa; and (3) internal and external spatial predictions have to match within both regions. Results The measures of model fit are, on average, 24% higher for GAMs than for GLMs in both regions. However, the differences between internal and external evaluations (AUC coefficient) are also higher for GAMs than for GLMs (a difference of 30% for models fitted in Switzerland and 54% for models fitted in Austria). Transferability, as measured with the AUC evaluation, fails for 68% of the species in Switzerland and 55% in Austria for GLMs (respectively for 67% and 53% of the species for GAMs). For both GAMs and GLMs, the agreement between internal and external predictions is rather weak on average (Kulczynski's coefficient in the range 0.3–0.4), but varies widely among individual species. The dominant pattern is an asymmetrical transferability between the two study regions (a mean decrease of 20% for the AUC coefficient when the models are transferred from Switzerland and 13% when they are transferred from Austria). Main conclusions The large inter‐specific variability observed among the 54 study species underlines the need to consider more than a few species to test properly the transferability of species distribution models. The pronounced asymmetry in transferability between the two study regions may be due to peculiarities of these regions, such as differences in the ranges of environmental predictors or the varied impact of land‐use history, or to species‐specific reasons like differential phenotypic plasticity, existence of ecotypes or varied dependence on biotic interactions that are not properly incorporated into niche‐based models. The lower variation between internal and external evaluation of GLMs compared to GAMs further suggests that overfitting may reduce transferability. Overall, a limited geographical transferability calls for caution when projecting niche‐based models for assessing the fate of species in future environments.