Are niche‐based species distribution models transferable in space?

Aim To assess the geographical transferability of niche‐based species distribution models fitted with two modelling techniques. Location Two distinct geographical study areas in Switzerland and Austria, in the subalpine and alpine belts. Methods Generalized linear and generalized additive models (GLM and GAM) with a binomial probability distribution and a logit link were fitted for 54 plant species, based on topoclimatic predictor variables. These models were then evaluated quantitatively and used for spatially explicit predictions within (internal evaluation and prediction) and between (external evaluation and prediction) the two regions. Comparisons of evaluations and spatial predictions between regions and models were conducted in order to test if species and methods meet the criteria of full transferability. By full transferability, we mean that: (1) the internal evaluation of models fitted in region A and B must be similar; (2) a model fitted in region A must at least retain a comparable external evaluation when projected into region B, and vice‐versa; and (3) internal and external spatial predictions have to match within both regions. Results The measures of model fit are, on average, 24% higher for GAMs than for GLMs in both regions. However, the differences between internal and external evaluations (AUC coefficient) are also higher for GAMs than for GLMs (a difference of 30% for models fitted in Switzerland and 54% for models fitted in Austria). Transferability, as measured with the AUC evaluation, fails for 68% of the species in Switzerland and 55% in Austria for GLMs (respectively for 67% and 53% of the species for GAMs). For both GAMs and GLMs, the agreement between internal and external predictions is rather weak on average (Kulczynski's coefficient in the range 0.3–0.4), but varies widely among individual species. The dominant pattern is an asymmetrical transferability between the two study regions (a mean decrease of 20% for the AUC coefficient when the models are transferred from Switzerland and 13% when they are transferred from Austria). Main conclusions The large inter‐specific variability observed among the 54 study species underlines the need to consider more than a few species to test properly the transferability of species distribution models. The pronounced asymmetry in transferability between the two study regions may be due to peculiarities of these regions, such as differences in the ranges of environmental predictors or the varied impact of land‐use history, or to species‐specific reasons like differential phenotypic plasticity, existence of ecotypes or varied dependence on biotic interactions that are not properly incorporated into niche‐based models. The lower variation between internal and external evaluation of GLMs compared to GAMs further suggests that overfitting may reduce transferability. Overall, a limited geographical transferability calls for caution when projecting niche‐based models for assessing the fate of species in future environments.     

How important is long‐distance seed dispersal for the regional survival of plant species?

Long‐distance seed dispersal is generally assumed to be important for the regional survival of plant species. In this study, we quantified the importance of long‐distance seed dispersal for regional survival of plant species using wind dispersal as an example. We did this using a new approach, by first relating plant species’ dispersal traits to seed dispersal kernels and then relating the kernels to regional survival of the species. We used a recently developed and tested mechanistic seed dispersal model to calculate dispersal kernels from dispersal traits. We used data on 190 plant species and calculated their regional survival in two ways, using species distribution data from 36,800 1 km²‐grid cells and 10,754 small plots covering the Netherlands during the largest part of the 20th century. We carried out correlation and stepwise multiple regression analyses to quantify the importance of long‐distance dispersal, expressed as the 99‐percentile dispersal distance of the dispersal kernels, relative to the importance of median‐distance dispersal and other plant traits that are likely to contribute to the explanation of regional survival: plant longevity (annual, biennial, perennial), seed longevity, and plant nutrient requirement. Results show that long‐distance dispersal plays a role in determining regional survival, and is more important than median‐distance dispersal and plant longevity. However, long‐distance dispersal by wind explains only 1–3% of the variation in regional survival between species and is equally important as seed longevity and much less important than nutrient requirement. In changing landscapes such as in the Netherlands, where large‐scale eutrophication and habitat destruction took place in the 20th century, plant traits indicating ability to grow under the changed, increasingly nutrient‐rich conditions turn out to be much more important for regional survival than seed dispersal.     

Ditch the niche – is the niche a useful concept in ecology or species distribution modelling?

In this first of three papers we examine the use of niche concepts in ecology and especially in species distribution modelling (SDM). This paper deliberately focuses on the lack of clarity found in the term ‘niche’. Because its meanings are so diverse, the term niche tends to create confusion and requires constant qualification. The literature houses many idiosyncratic ideas of what the niche is, but few examples where niche is more explanatory than the terminologies of population and community ecology or the statistical methods used to implement SDM analyses. In many cases the original (and inspirational) concepts are not directly applicable to our modern applications (e.g. set theory). There are some conceptual limitations found in individual definitions of niche (e.g. the fundamental niche concept), so it is perhaps understandable why more neutral terminology is becoming popular in SDM. An examination of the literature reveals a wide range of uncritical use of niche terminology. Our findings in this paper do not necessarily support the position of niche as a universally useful concept.     

Do traits of plant species predict the efficacy of species distribution models for finding new occurrences?

Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to test ecological theory and to direct targeted surveys for species of conservation concern. Several studies have tested for an influence of species traits on the predictive accuracy of SDMs. However, most used the same set of environmental predictors for all species and/or did not use truly independent data to test SDM accuracy. We built eight SDMs for each of 24 plant species of conservation concern, varying the environmental predictors included in each SDM version. We then measured the accuracy of each SDM using independent presence and absence data to calculate area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and true positive rate (TPR). We used generalized linear mixed models to test for a relationship between species traits and SDM accuracy, while accounting for variation in SDM performance that might be introduced by different predictor sets. All traits affected one or both SDM accuracy measures. Species with lighter seeds, animal‐dispersed seeds, and a higher density of occurrences had higher AUC and TPR than other species, all else being equal. Long‐lived woody species had higher AUC than herbaceous species, but lower TPR. These results support the hypothesis that the strength of species–environment correlations is affected by characteristics of species or their geographic distributions. However, because each species has multiple traits, and because AUC and TPR can be affected differently, there is no straightforward way to determine a priori which species will yield useful SDMs based on their traits. Most species yielded at least one useful SDM. Therefore, it is worthwhile to build and test SDMs for the purpose of finding new populations of plant species of conservation concern, regardless of these species’ traits.     

The Scotch broom,Cytisus scoparius (Fabaceae), a paradox in Denmark – an invasive plant or endangered native species?

Scotch broom, Cytisus scoparius, spreads rapidly in parts of Denmark and is considered an invasive species by some authors. However, the species has been present in the Danish flora for centuries and is therefore considered native to Denmark. In the present study we explore whether Danish Scotch broom consists of one or two gene pools with potential differences in phenotype and invasiveness. One plastid and five nuclear microsatellite markers were used to reveal potential substructuring of Danish Scotch broom. Nine populations were included representing populations exhibiting invasive behaviour and populations showing non‐invasive behaviour. An Italian population was used as reference. Bayesian analysis based on genetic markers indicated that the sampled populations form two distinct gene pools, and this pattern was supported by neighbour‐joining trees. Measurements of height and width of the analysed plants showed that the two gene pools correspond to populations exhibiting either a horizontal habit and non‐invasive behaviour or an erect habit and, in some cases, invasive behaviour. The Italian population clustered with the erect ones. We discuss the origin and taxonomic status of the two gene pools and conclude that Danish horizontal Scotch broom should be given a formal taxonomic status in order to initiate conservation activities for its protection. © 2012 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, ●● , ●●–●●.     

Spatial distribution patterns of Rhynchostegium megapolitanum at the landscape scale ‐ an expanding species?

Question: Is Rhynchostegium megapolitanum an expanding species? Location: Viennese Basin (120‐220 m a.s.1.), Austria. Methods: 121 dry grasslands, were investigated for the occurrence of R. megapolitanum. Nineteen environmental variables at 50 randomly selected sites, species composition at sites with and without R. megapolitanum and the spatial patterns of distribution of the species at the landscape scale were analysed. We compared actual distribution data of three rare species (Didymodon acutus, Pleurochaete squarrosa R. megapolitanum) and a common one (Brachythecium rutabulum) with the distribution obtained by vouchers that were collected between 1860 and 1940 in the investigated area. We calculated a GIS based model pattern and compared it with the actual distribution. Results: R. megapolitanum was detected in 28 of these sites, almost 50 % of its populations produced sporophytes. We found significant differences between sites with and without R. megapolitanum with regard to grassland size, the percentage of silt and of sand in the soil. There were fewer occurrences of historic herbarium vouchers of R. megapolitanum than our current field survey discovered. The GIS based analyses of distribution patterns at the landscape scale showed a clustering of sites in which R. megapolitanum was present or absent. Simulations with a spatially realistic expansion model showed high similarities to the actual distribution of the species. Conclusions: All these analyses suggest that R. megapolitanum has been expanding in the investigated area. A significant increase in temperature and nitrogen deposition within the last hundred years might be the underlying cause for the species' spread.     

Enterococcus faecalis infection in root canals – host‐derived or exogenous source?

Aims: Enterococcus faecalis is associated with a significant number of refractory endodontic infections. Previous studies report a prevalence of Ent. faecalis ranging from 24% up to 77% in teeth with failed endodontic treatment. The origin of the micro‐organism remains unclear, as enterococci do not belong to the normal oral microflora. The aim of this study was to determine whether these enterococci were of endogenous or exogenous origin. Methods and Results: Fifty consecutive patients with apical periodontitis in need of endodontic orthograde re‐treatment were included. Samples were collected from root canals, saliva and faeces and subjected to microbiological culturing. The genetic relationship between Ent. faecalis from root canals and isolates from the different host sources was determined using pulsed‐field gel electrophoresis. In 16% (8/50) of the patients, enterococci were collected from the root canal samples. The genetic analysis showed that the isolates from the root canals were not related to those from the normal gastrointestinal microflora. None of these patients had enterococci in their saliva samples. Conclusions: Endodontic infections with Ent. faecalis are probably not derived from the patient’s own normal microflora, which indicates that these infections ent. faecalis are of exogenous origin. Significance and Impact of the Study: This is the first study to genetically compare endodontic infectious Ent. faecalis isolates with isolates from the hosts’ own normal microflora.     

To ∼P or Not to ∼P? Non‐canonical activation by two‐component response regulators

Bacteria sense and respond to their environment through the use of two‐component regulatory systems. The ability to adapt to a wide range of environmental stresses is directly related to the number of two‐component systems an organism possesses. Recent advances in this area have identified numerous variations on the archetype systems that employ a sensor kinase and a response regulator. It is now evident that many orphan regulators that lack cognate kinases do not rely on phosphorylation for activation and new roles for unphosphorylated response regulators have been identified. The significance of recent findings and suggestions for further research are discussed.     

Changes in plant species density in an experimentally fragmented forest landscape: Are the effects scale‐dependent?

The establishment of commercial tree plantations is a common cause of habitat fragmentation globally, yet the influence of this land use on plant species density in fragmented native forests requires further understanding. Theory predicts species density will be highest in large areas of habitat, and should decline as area is reduced, but whether these effects are scale‐dependent is largely unknown. We assessed plant species density (total, common and uncommon species) in experimentally fragmented eucalypt forest remnants (0.25, 0.88, 3.06 ha) surrounded by a pine plantation, at three spatial scales using nested quadrats. Specifically, we consider how plant species density varies across three different sized fragments, and whether the response of species density is magnified in common or uncommon species. Species density in small fragments was higher than continuous forest for all species groupings at the smallest spatial scale (1 m²), and for total and common species at the next smallest spatial scale (16 m²). No species groupings responded to reductions in habitat area at the largest spatial scale (144 m²). We suggest that pine plantations may cause higher species density in small fragments via two mechanisms, either by allowing species to infill unoccupied areas within small fragments, or by buffering small fragments from species losses during a severe and prolonged drought. In both cases we suspect reduced moisture stress (e.g. increased soil moisture, higher shading and reduced temperature) in small fragments has led to the observed changes in species density.     

Profile or group discriminative techniques? Generating reliable species distribution models using pseudo‐absences and target‐group absences from natural history collections

Aim The presence‐only data stored in natural history collections is the most important source of information available regarding the distribution of organisms. These data and profile techniques can be used to generate species distribution models (SDMs), but pseudo‐absences must be generated to use group discriminative techniques. In this study, we evaluated whether the SDMs generated with pseudo‐absences are reliable and also if there are differences in the results obtained with profile and group discriminative techniques. Location Ecuador, South America. Methods The SDMs were generated with a training data set for each of the five species of Anthurium and six different methods: two profile techniques (BIOCLIM and Gower’s distance index), three group discriminative techniques [logistic multiple regression (LMR), multivariate adaptative regression splines (MARS) and Maxent ] and a mixed modelling approach genetic algorithm for rule‐set production (GARP), which employs a combination of profile and group discriminative techniques and generates its own pseudo‐absences. For LMR, MARS and Maxent , three types of absences were generated: (1) random pseudo‐absences in equal number to presences and excluding a buffer area around presences (except for Maxent , which assumes that this background sample includes presences), (2) a large number (10,000) of random pseudo‐absences, also excluding a buffer area around each presence and (3) ‘target‐group absences’ (TGA), consisting of sites where other species of the group have been collected by the specialist, but not the species being modelled. To compare the predictive performance of the SDMs, the area under the curve statistic was calculated using an independent testing data set for each species. Results MARS, Maxent and LMR produce better results than the profile techniques. The models created with TGA are generally more accurate than those generated with pseudo‐absences. Main conclusions The advantages and disadvantages of different options for using pseudo‐absences and TGA with profile and group discriminative modelling techniques are explained and recommendations are made for the future.     

Lipopolysaccharide‐induced increase in signalling in hippocampus is abrogated by IL‐10 – a role for IL‐1β?

Parenterally administered lipopolysaccharide (LPS) increases the concentration of the pro-inflammatory cytokine interleukin-1beta (IL-1beta) in the rat hippocampus and evidence suggests that this effect plays a significant role in inhibiting long-term potentiation (LTP). The anti-inflammatory cytokine IL-10, antagonizes certain effects of IL-1beta, so if the effects of LPS are mediated through an increase in IL-1beta, it might be predicted that IL-10 would also abrogate the effect of LPS. Here, we report that IL-10 reversed the inhibitory effect of LPS on LTP and the data couple this with an inhibitory effect on the LPS-induced increase in IL-1beta. LPS treatment increased hippocampal expression of IL-1 receptor Type I protein. Consistent with the LPS-induced increases in IL-1beta concentration and receptor expression, were downstream changes which included enhanced phosphorylation of IRAK and the stress-activated kinases, JNK and p38; these LPS-induced changes were reversed by IL-10, which concurs with the idea that these events are triggered by increased activation of IL-1RI by IL-1beta. We provide evidence which indicates that LPS treatment leads to evidence of cell death and this was reversed in hippocampus prepared from LPS-treated rats which received IL-10. The evidence is therefore consistent with the idea that IL-10 acts to protect neuronal tissue from the detrimental effects induced by LPS.     

N for AsN – O for StrOcture? A strand–loop–strand motif for prokaryotic O‐glycosylation

So far, it has not been possible to identify a general sequence motif for O-glycosylation in bacteria. In this issue, Charbonneau et al. (2012) demonstrate why O-glycosylation is mediated by a 13-residue strand-loop-strand motif which is part of a 19-residue imperfect repeat in the passenger domain of bacterial autotransporters. This motif provides a convenient 'glycosylation cassette' and raises intriguing questions about the structural regulation of the glycosylation pathway.     

Post‐dispersal seed recovery by animals: is it a plant‐ or an animal‐driven process?

The ability of animals to find and consume hoarded seeds (i.e. seed recovery) is a key stage within the seed dispersal process. However, the ecology of seed recovery is still poorly understood. Here, we analyze the factors controlling seed recovery by scatter‐hoarding rodents in an oak‐dominated temperate forest. We examined the relative importance of intrinsic seed traits (i.e. plant‐driven) and extrinsic seed factors (i.e. animal‐driven) on the probability of seed recovery. We found that seed recovery is mainly driven by extrinsic seed factors, mostly related to animal behavior (pilfering frequency, microsite preference, predation risk, burial depth and cache size). Important intrinsic traits such as seed size, seed quality and seed‐drop timing were, on average, of lower significance in the probability of seed recovery (2.8‐times less important than extrinsic factors); only seed quality was an important intrinsic trait. On the other hand, larger and nutritionally more valuable seeds showed a removal–recovery tradeoff as they enhance seed removal and hoarding (increasing dispersal quality) but also favour seed recovery (increasing predation). We find that other mechanisms beyond seed traits (e.g. masting) are needed to decrease seed recovery and, thus, increase seed survival. We conclude that, as seed recovery is mostly driven by animal behavioural factors, it substantially differs from other previous stages of the seed dispersal process that are more dependent on seed traits. We argue that seed recovery needs further attention to advance our understanding of the ecology of seed dispersal and the role of secondary dispersers as a selective force for seeds.