Maxent模型复杂度对物种潜在分布区预测的影响

生态位模型在入侵生物学和保护生物学中具有广泛的应用, 其中Maxent模型最为流行, 被越来越多地应用在预测物种的现实分布和潜在分布的研究中。在Maxent模型中, 多数研究者采用默认参数来构建模型, 这些默认参数源自早期对266个物种的测试, 以预测物种的现实分布为目的。近期研究发现, Maxent模型采用复杂机械学习算法, 对采样偏差敏感, 易产生过度拟合, 模型转移能力仅在低阈值情况下较好。基于默认参数的Maxent模型不仅预测结果不可靠, 而且有时很难解释。在本研究中, 作者以入侵害虫茶翅蝽(Halyomorpha halys)为例, 采用经典模型构建方案(即构建本土模型然后将其转移至入侵地来评估), 利用ENMeval数据包来调整本土Maxent模型调控倍频和特征组合参数, 分析各种参数条件下模型的复杂度, 然后选取最低复杂度的模型参数(即为最优模型), 综合比较默认参数和调整参数后Maxent模型的响应曲线和预测结果, 探讨Maxent模型复杂度对预测结果的影响及Maxent模型构建时所需注意事项, 以期对物种潜在分布进行合理的预测, 促进Maxent模型在我国的合理运用和发展。作者认为, 环境变量的选择至关重要, 需要综合分析其对所模拟物种分布的限制作用和环境变量之间的空间相关性。构建Maxent模型前需对物种分布采样偏差及模型的构建区域进行合理地判断, 模型构建时需要比较不同参数下模型的预测结果和响应曲线, 选取复杂度较低的模型参数来最终建模。在茶翅蝽的分析中, Maxent模型的默认参数和最优模型参数不同, 与Maxent模型默认参数相比, 采用调整参数后所构建的模型预测效果较好, 响应曲线较为平滑, 模型转移能力较高, 能够较为合理反映物种对环境因子的响应和准确地模拟该物种的潜在分布。     

MaxEnt模型参数设置对其所模拟物种地理分布和生态位的影响——以茶翅蝽为例

【目的】生态位模型被广泛应用于入侵生物学和保护生物学研究,现有建模工具中,MaxEnt是最流行和运用最广泛的生态位模型。然而最近研究表明,基于MaxEnt模型的默认参数构建模型时,模型倾向于过度拟合,并非一定为最佳模型,尤其是在处理一些分布点较少的物种。【方法】以茶翅蝽为例,通过设置不同的特征参数、调控倍频以及背景拟不存在点数分别构建茶翅蝽的本土模型,然后将其转入入侵地来验证和比较模型,通过检测模型预测的物种对环境因子的响应曲线、潜在分布在生态空间中的生态位映射以及潜在分布的空间差异性,探讨3种参数设置对MaxEnt模型模拟物种分布和生态位的影响。【结果】在茶翅蝽的案例分析中,特征参数的设置对MaxEnt模型所模拟的潜在分布和生态位的影响最大,调控倍频的影响次之,背景拟不存在点数的影响最小。与其他特征相比,基于特征H和T的模型其响应曲线较为曲折;随着调控倍频的增加,响应曲线变得圆滑。【结论】在构建MaxEnt模型时,需要从生态空间中考虑物种的生态需求,分析模型参数对预测物种分布和生态位可能造成的影响。     

Using maximum entropy to predict the potential distribution of an invasive freshwater snail

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A practical guide to MaxEnt for modeling species’ distributions: what it does,and why inputs and settings matter

The MaxEnt software package is one of the most popular tools for species distribution and environmental niche modeling, with over 1000 published applications since 2006. Its popularity is likely for two reasons: 1) MaxEnt typically outperforms other methods based on predictive accuracy and 2) the software is particularly easy to use. MaxEnt users must make a number of decisions about how they should select their input data and choose from a wide variety of settings in the software package to build models from these data. The underlying basis for making these decisions is unclear in many studies, and default settings are apparently chosen, even though alternative settings are often more appropriate. In this paper, we provide a detailed explanation of how MaxEnt works and a prospectus on modeling options to enable users to make informed decisions when preparing data, choosing settings and interpreting output. We explain how the choice of background samples reflects prior assumptions, how nonlinear functions of environmental variables (features) are created and selected, how to account for environmentally biased sampling, the interpretation of the various types of model output and the challenges for model evaluation. We demonstrate MaxEnt’s calculations using both simplified simulated data and occurrence data from South Africa on species of the flowering plant family Proteaceae. Throughout, we show how MaxEnt’s outputs vary in response to different settings to highlight the need for making biologically motivated modeling decisions.     

Evaluating models to assess the distribution of Buxus balearica in southern Spain

Question: Which is the best model to predict the habitat distribution of Buxus balearica Lam. in southern Spain? Location: Málaga and Granada, Spain, across an area of 38 180 km². Methods: Prediction models based on 17 environmental variables were tested. Six methods were compared: multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), maximum entropy approach to modelling species' distributions (Maxent), two generic algorithms based on environmental metrics dissimilarity (BIOCLIM and DOMAIN), Genetic Algorithm for Rule‐set Prediction (GARP), and supervised learning methods based on generalized linear classifiers (support vector machines, SVMs). To test the predictive power of the models we used the Kappa index. Results: Maxent most accurately predicted the habitat distribution of B. balearica, followed by MARS models. The other models tested yielded lower accuracy values. A comparison of the predictive power of the models revealed that climate variables made the highest contributions among the environmental variables studied. The variables that made the lowest contributions were the insolation models. To examine the sensitivity of the models to a reduction in the number of variables, a test showed that accuracy of over 0.90 was maintained by applying just three climatic variables (spring rainfall, mean temperature of the warmest month, and mean temperature of the coldest month). Maps derived from the algorithms of all models tested coincided well with the known distribution of the species. Conclusions: Model habitat prediction is a preliminary step towards highlighting areas of high habitat suitability of B. balearica. These data support the results of previous research, which show that MaxEnt is the best technique for modelling species distributions with small sample sizes.     

The challenge of modeling niches and distributions for data‐poor species: a comprehensive approach to model complexity

Models of species ecological niches and geographic distributions now represent a widely used tool in ecology, evolution, and biogeography. However, the very common situation of species with few available occurrence localities presents major challenges for such modeling techniques, in particular regarding model complexity and evaluation. Here, we summarize the state of the field regarding these issues and provide a worked example using the technique Maxent for a small mammal endemic to Madagascar (the nesomyine rodent Eliurus majori). Two relevant model‐selection approaches exist in the literature (information criteria, specifically AICc; and performance predicting withheld data, via a jackknife), but AICc is not strictly applicable to machine‐learning algorithms like Maxent. We compare models chosen under each selection approach with those corresponding to Maxent default settings, both with and without spatial filtering of occurrence records to reduce the effects of sampling bias. Both selection approaches chose simpler models than those made using default settings. Furthermore, the approaches converged on a similar answer when sampling bias was taken into account, but differed markedly with the unfiltered occurrence data. Specifically, for that dataset, the models selected by AICc had substantially fewer parameters than those identified by performance on withheld data. Based on our knowledge of the study species, models chosen under both AICc and withheld‐data‐selection showed higher ecological plausibility when combined with spatial filtering. The results for this species intimate that AICc may consistently select models with fewer parameters and be more robust to sampling bias. To test these hypotheses and reach general conclusions, comprehensive research should be undertaken with a wide variety of real and simulated species. Meanwhile, we recommend that researchers assess the critical yet underappreciated issue of model complexity both via information criteria and performance on withheld data, comparing the results between the two approaches and taking into account ecological plausibility.     

Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation

Accurate modeling of geographic distributions of species is crucial to various applications in ecology and conservation. The best performing techniques often require some parameter tuning, which may be prohibitively time‐consuming to do separately for each species, or unreliable for small or biased datasets. Additionally, even with the abundance of good quality data, users interested in the application of species models need not have the statistical knowledge required for detailed tuning. In such cases, it is desirable to use “default settings”, tuned and validated on diverse datasets. Maxent is a recently introduced modeling technique, achieving high predictive accuracy and enjoying several additional attractive properties. The performance of Maxent is influenced by a moderate number of parameters. The first contribution of this paper is the empirical tuning of these parameters. Since many datasets lack information about species absence, we present a tuning method that uses presence‐only data. We evaluate our method on independently collected high‐quality presence‐absence data. In addition to tuning, we introduce several concepts that improve the predictive accuracy and running time of Maxent. We introduce “hinge features” that model more complex relationships in the training data; we describe a new logistic output format that gives an estimate of probability of presence; finally we explore “background sampling” strategies that cope with sample selection bias and decrease model‐building time. Our evaluation, based on a diverse dataset of 226 species from 6 regions, shows: 1) default settings tuned on presence‐only data achieve performance which is almost as good as if they had been tuned on the evaluation data itself; 2) hinge features substantially improve model performance; 3) logistic output improves model calibration, so that large differences in output values correspond better to large differences in suitability; 4) “target‐group” background sampling can give much better predictive performance than random background sampling; 5) random background sampling results in a dramatic decrease in running time, with no decrease in model performance.     

Opening the black box: an open‐source release of Maxent

This software note announces a new open‐source release of the Maxent software for modeling species distributions from occurrence records and environmental data, and describes a new R package for fitting such models. The new release (ver. 3.4.0) will be hosted online by the American Museum of Natural History, along with future versions. It contains small functional changes, most notably use of a complementary log‐log (cloglog) transform to produce an estimate of occurrence probability. The cloglog transform derives from the recently‐published interpretation of Maxent as an inhomogeneous Poisson process (IPP), giving it a stronger theoretical justification than the logistic transform which it replaces by default. In addition, the new R package, maxnet, fits Maxent models using the glmnet package for regularized generalized linear models. We discuss the implications of the IPP formulation in terms of model inputs and outputs, treating occurrence records as points rather than grid cells and interpreting the exponential Maxent model (raw output) as as an estimate of relative abundance. With these two open‐source developments, we invite others to freely use and contribute to the software.     

Profile or group discriminative techniques? Generating reliable species distribution models using pseudo‐absences and target‐group absences from natural history collections

Aim The presence‐only data stored in natural history collections is the most important source of information available regarding the distribution of organisms. These data and profile techniques can be used to generate species distribution models (SDMs), but pseudo‐absences must be generated to use group discriminative techniques. In this study, we evaluated whether the SDMs generated with pseudo‐absences are reliable and also if there are differences in the results obtained with profile and group discriminative techniques. Location Ecuador, South America. Methods The SDMs were generated with a training data set for each of the five species of Anthurium and six different methods: two profile techniques (BIOCLIM and Gower’s distance index), three group discriminative techniques [logistic multiple regression (LMR), multivariate adaptative regression splines (MARS) and Maxent ] and a mixed modelling approach genetic algorithm for rule‐set production (GARP), which employs a combination of profile and group discriminative techniques and generates its own pseudo‐absences. For LMR, MARS and Maxent , three types of absences were generated: (1) random pseudo‐absences in equal number to presences and excluding a buffer area around presences (except for Maxent , which assumes that this background sample includes presences), (2) a large number (10,000) of random pseudo‐absences, also excluding a buffer area around each presence and (3) ‘target‐group absences’ (TGA), consisting of sites where other species of the group have been collected by the specialist, but not the species being modelled. To compare the predictive performance of the SDMs, the area under the curve statistic was calculated using an independent testing data set for each species. Results MARS, Maxent and LMR produce better results than the profile techniques. The models created with TGA are generally more accurate than those generated with pseudo‐absences. Main conclusions The advantages and disadvantages of different options for using pseudo‐absences and TGA with profile and group discriminative modelling techniques are explained and recommendations are made for the future.     

A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists

MaxEnt is a program for modelling species distributions from presence‐only species records. This paper is written for ecologists and describes the MaxEnt model from a statistical perspective, making explicit links between the structure of the model, decisions required in producing a modelled distribution, and knowledge about the species and the data that might affect those decisions. To begin we discuss the characteristics of presence‐only data, highlighting implications for modelling distributions. We particularly focus on the problems of sample bias and lack of information on species prevalence. The keystone of the paper is a new statistical explanation of MaxEnt which shows that the model minimizes the relative entropy between two probability densities (one estimated from the presence data and one, from the landscape) defined in covariate space. For many users, this viewpoint is likely to be a more accessible way to understand the model than previous ones that rely on machine learning concepts. We then step through a detailed explanation of MaxEnt describing key components (e.g. covariates and features, and definition of the landscape extent), the mechanics of model fitting (e.g. feature selection, constraints and regularization) and outputs. Using case studies for a Banksia species native to south‐west Australia and a riverine fish, we fit models and interpret them, exploring why certain choices affect the result and what this means. The fish example illustrates use of the model with vector data for linear river segments rather than raster (gridded) data. Appropriate treatments for survey bias, unprojected data, locally restricted species, and predicting to environments outside the range of the training data are demonstrated, and new capabilities discussed. Online appendices include additional details of the model and the mathematical links between previous explanations and this one, example code and data, and further information on the case studies.     

Machine learning of large‐scale spatial distributions of wild turkeys with high‐dimensional environmental data

Species distribution modeling often involves high‐dimensional environmental data. Large amounts of data and multicollinearity among covariates impose challenges to statistical models in variable selection for reliable inferences of the effects of environmental factors on the spatial distribution of species. Few studies have evaluated and compared the performance of multiple machine learning (ML) models in handling multicollinearity. Here, we assessed the effectiveness of removal of correlated covariates and regularization to cope with multicollinearity in ML models for habitat suitability. Three machine learning algorithms maximum entropy (MaxEnt), random forests (RFs), and support vector machines (SVMs) were applied to the original data (OD) of 27 landscape variables, reduced data (RD) with 14 highly correlated covariates being removed, and 15 principal components (PC) of the OD accounting for 90% of the original variability. The performance of the three ML models was measured with the area under the curve and continuous Boyce index. We collected 663 nonduplicated presence locations of Eastern wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) across the state of Mississippi, United States. Of the total locations, 453 locations separated by a distance of ≥2 km were used to train the three ML algorithms on the OD, RD, and PC data, respectively. The remaining 210 locations were used to validate the trained ML models to measure ML performance. Three ML models had excellent performance on the RD and PC data. MaxEnt and SVMs had good performance on the OD data, indicating the adequacy of regularization of the default setting for multicollinearity. Weak learning of RFs through bagging appeared to alleviate multicollinearity and resulted in excellent performance on the OD data. Regularization of ML algorithms may help exploratory studies of the effects of environmental factors on the spatial distribution and habitat suitability of wildlife.     

Spatial sampling bias and model complexity in stream‐based species distribution models: A case study of Paddlefish (Polyodon spathula) in the Arkansas River basin,USA

Leveraging existing presence records and geospatial datasets, species distribution modeling has been widely applied to informing species conservation and restoration efforts. Maxent is one of the most popular modeling algorithms, yet recent research has demonstrated Maxent models are vulnerable to prediction errors related to spatial sampling bias and model complexity. Despite elevated rates of biodiversity imperilment in stream ecosystems, the application of Maxent models to stream networks has lagged, as has the availability of tools to address potential sources of error and calculate model evaluation metrics when modeling in nonraster environments (such as stream networks). Herein, we use Maxent and customized R code to estimate the potential distribution of paddlefish (Polyodon spathula) at a stream‐segment level within the Arkansas River basin, USA, while accounting for potential spatial sampling bias and model complexity. Filtering the presence data appeared to adequately remove an eastward, large‐river sampling bias that was evident within the unfiltered presence dataset. In particular, our novel riverscape filter provided a repeatable means of obtaining a relatively even coverage of presence data among watersheds and streams of varying sizes. The greatest differences in estimated distributions were observed among models constructed with default versus AIC_C‐selected parameterization. Although all models had similarly high performance and evaluation metrics, the AIC_C‐selected models were more inclusive of westward‐situated and smaller, headwater streams. Overall, our results solidified the importance of accounting for model complexity and spatial sampling bias in SDMs constructed within stream networks and provided a roadmap for future paddlefish restoration efforts in the study area.     

Modelling spatial patterns in harbour porpoise satellite telemetry data using maximum entropy

The distribution of harbour porpoises in EU waters is poorly understood, and modelled predictions of their distributions could inform the strategic spatial planning of future exploitation of the marine environment to avoid potential conflicts. We analysed satellite telemetry data from 39 harbour porpoises Phocoena phocoena in inner Danish waters using a modelling tool rooted in maximum entropy: Maxent. Maxent does not require absence data and has been shown to be effective for data characterised by small sample size, sampling bias and locational errors. For each season we used an iterative bootstrapping procedure to randomly select among the most precise records from each of the 39 tagged individuals, and ran Maxent on pooled records based on explanatory environmental variables hypothesised to serve as good proxies for harbour porpoise prey abundance. Among our environmental variables, distance to coast and bottom salinity had the most explanatory power, and their response shapes were relatively consistent across most seasons. The predictive power of the models (assessed by ROC‐AUC) ranged from 0.70 to 0.86 within seasons. The southern Kattegat, the Belt Seas, most western part of the Baltic Sea and the Sound were predicted to have relatively high probabilities of occurrence across seasons. In contrast, the central part of Kattegat and the Baltic Sea south and east of Limhamn and Darss Ridge consistently showed low probabilities of occurrence. Areas with the lowest probabilities of occurrence were generally characterised by high predictive uncertainty. Our methods have implications for the analyses of satellite tagged animals in terrestrial and marine environments. By coupling a bootstrapping procedure with Maxent we circumvented some of the statistical challenges presented by satellite telemetry data to generate spatial predictions within the inner Danish waters.     

Spatial modelling provides a novel tool for estimating the landscape level distribution of greenhouse gas balances

A long-term challenge in managing the climate effects of land use is the development of an efficient, comprehensive approach to the identification of greenhouse gas (GHG) balances. The approach would help in establishing robust methods for the cost-effective and climate-friendly targeting of land use options, for example, in peatlands, which are globally important sinks and sources of GHGs. The aims of this study were to create spatial models with the maximum entropy method Maxent so as to 1) identify the environmental variables that control the distribution of GHG sinks and sources in forestry-drained peatlands in Finland and 2) predict the landscape-level distribution of GHG balances in two regional mire complex zones (the aapa mire and the raised bog zone). Several environmental datasets were used as sources of explanatory variables. Even though the significance of the explanatory variables were different between mire complex zones, the variables describing habitat conditions, such as drainage intensity and site fertility, contributed most to the models. Drainage intensity describes indirectly the moisture conditions and can thereby be used as a proxy for the water table. The results showed that relatively coarse-scale environmental data (25 ha grid cells) combined with spatial modelling have potential in explaining and predicting GHG balances at the landscape level. To our knowledge, this is the first time that spatial Maxent models have been used to model the distribution of GHG balances.     

Bioclimatic and altitudinal variables influence the potential distribution of canine parvovirus type 2 worldwide

Canine parvovirus type 2 (CPV‐2) is extremely contagious and causes high rate of morbidity to many wild carnivores. It has three variants (CPV‐2a, CPV‐2b, and CPV‐2c) that are distributed worldwide with different frequencies and levels of genetic and antigenic variability. The disease poses a threat to the healthy survival and reproduction of wildlife. The research on the relationship between CPV‐2 epidemic and environmental variables is lacking. To fill this research gap, we used maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach with principal component analysis (PCA) to evaluate the relation between CPV‐2 and environmental variables and to create a world risk map for this disease. According to the PCA results, 18 environmental variables were selected from 68 variables for subsequent analyses. MaxEnt showed that annual mean temperature, isothermality, altitude, November precipitation, maximum temperature of warmest month, and precipitation of warmest quarter were the six most important variables associated with CPV‐2 distribution, with a total of 77.7% percent contribution. The risk of this disease between 18°N and 47°N was high, especially in the east of China and the United States. These results support further prediction of risk factors for this virus to help secure the health and sustainable survival of wild carnivores.     

Modelling the Meteorological Forest Fire Niche in Heterogeneous Pyrologic Conditions

Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent). In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both). Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition.     

Ecological Niche Models using MaxEnt in Google Earth Engine: Evaluation,guidelines and recommendations

Google Earth Engine (GEE) has revolutionized geospatial analyses by fast-processing formerly demanding analyses from multiple research areas. Recently, maximum entropy (MaxEnt), the most commonly used method in ecological niche models (ENMs), was integrated into GEE. This integration can significantly enhance modeling efficiency and encourage multidisciplinary approaches of ENMs, but an evaluation assessment of MaxEnt in GEE is lacking. Herein, we present the first MaxEnt models in GEE, as well as its first statistical and spatial evaluation. We also identify the limitations of the approach, providing guidelines and recommendations for its easier applicability in GEE.We tested MaxEnt in GEE using 11 case studies. For each case, we used species of different taxa (insects, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals) distributed across global and regional extents. Each species occupied habitats with distinct environmental characteristics (nine terrestrial and two marine species) and within divergent ecoregions across five continents. The models were performed in GEE and Maxent software, and both approaches were contrasted for their model discrimination performance (assessed by eight evaluation metrics) and spatial consistency (correlation analyses and two measures of niche overlap/equivalency).MaxEnt in GEE allows setting several parameters, but important analyses and outputs are unavailable, such as automatic selection of background data, model replicates, and analyses of variable importance (concretely, jackknife analyses and response curves). GEE provided MaxEnt models with high discrimination performance (area under the curve mean between all species models of 0.90) and with spatial equivalency in relation to Maxent software outputs (Hellinger's I mean between all species models >0.90).Our work demonstrates the first application and assessment of MaxEnt in GEE at global and regional scales. We conclude that the GEE modeling method provides ENMs with high performance and reliable spatial predictions, comparable to the widely used Maxent software. We also acknowledge important limitations that should be integrated into GEE in the future, particularly those related to the assessment of variable importance. We expect that our guidelines, recommendations and potential solutions to surpass the identified limitations could help researchers easily apply MaxEnt in GEE across different research fields.     

Modelling and predicting fungal distribution patterns using herbarium data

Aim The main aims of this study are: (1) to test if temperature and related parameters are the primary determinants of the regional distribution of macrofungi (as is commonly recognized for plants); (2) to test if the success of modelling fungal distribution patterns depends on species and distribution characteristics; and (3) to explore the potential of using herbarium data for modelling and predicting fungal species’ distributions. Location The study area, Norway, spans 58–71° N latitude and 4–32° E longitude, and embraces extensive ecological gradients in a small area. Methods The study is based on 1020 herbarium collections of nine selected species of macrofungi and a set of 75 environmental predictor variables, all recorded in a 5 × 5‐km grid covering Norway. Primarily, generalized linear model (GLM; logistic regression) analyses were used to identify the environmental variables that best accounted for the species’ recorded distributions in Norway. Second, Maxent analyses (using variables identified by GLM) were used to produce predictive potential distribution maps for these species. Results Variables relating to temperature and radiation were most frequently included in the GLMs, and between 24.8% and 59.8% of the variation in single‐species occurrence was accounted for. The fraction of variation explained by the GLMs ranged from 41.6% to 59.8% for species with restricted distributions, and from 24.8% to 39.3% for species with widespread/scattered and intermediate distributions. The two‐step procedure of GLM followed by Maxent gave predictions with very high values for the area under the curve (0.927–0.997), and maps of potential distribution were generally credible. Main conclusions We show that temperature is a key factor governing the distribution of macrofungi in Norway, indicating that fungi may respond strongly to global warming. We confirm that modelling success depends partly on species and distribution characteristics, notably on how the distribution relates to the extent of the study area. Our study demonstrates that the combination of GLM and Maxent may be a fruitful approach for biogeography. We conclude that herbarium data improve insight into factors that control the distributions of fungi, of particular value for research on fleshy fungi (mushrooms), which have largely cryptic life cycles.     

Finessing atlas data for species distribution models

Aim The spatial resolution of species atlases and therefore resulting model predictions are often too coarse for local applications. Collecting distribution data at a finer resolution for large numbers of species requires a comprehensive sampling effort, making it impractical and expensive. This study outlines the incorporation of existing knowledge into a conventional approach to predict the distribution of Bonelli’s eagle (Aquila fasciata) at a resolution 100 times finer than available atlas data. Location Malaga province, Andalusia, southern Spain. Methods A Bayesian expert system was proposed to utilize the knowledge from distribution models to yield the probability of a species being recorded at a finer resolution (1 × 1 km) than the original atlas data (10 × 10 km). The recorded probability was then used as a weight vector to generate a sampling scheme from the species atlas to enhance the accuracy of the modelling procedure. The maximum entropy for species distribution modelling (MaxEnt) was used as the species distribution model. A comparison was made between the results of the MaxEnt using the enhanced and, the random sampling scheme, based on four groups of environmental variables: topographic, climatic, biological and anthropogenic. Results The models with the sampling scheme enhanced by an expert system had a higher discriminative capacity than the baseline models. The downscaled (i.e. finer scale) species distribution maps using a hybrid MaxEnt/expert system approach were more specific to the nest locations and were more contrasted than those of the baseline model. Main conclusions The proposed method is a feasible substitute for comprehensive field work. The approach developed in this study is applicable for predicting the distribution of Bonelli’s eagle at a local scale from a national‐level occurrence data set; however, the usefulness of this approach may be limited to well‐known species.     

Dealing with vagueness in complex forest landscapes: A soft classification approach through a niche-based distribution model

The increasing interest in biodiversity conservation has led to the development of new approaches to facilitate ecologically based conservation policies and management plans. In this context, the development of effective methods for the classification of forest types constitutes a crucial issue as forests represent the most widespread vegetation structure and play a key role in ecosystem functioning. In this study a maximum entropy approach (Maxent) to forest type classification in a complex Mediterranean area, has been investigated. Maxent, a niche-based model of species/habitat distribution, allowed researchers to estimate the potential distribution of four forest types: Holm oak, Mixed oak, Mixed broadleaved and Riparian forests. The Maxent model's internal tests have proved a powerful tool for estimating the model's accuracy and analyzing the effects of the most important variables in the produced models. Moreover the comparison with a spectral response-based fuzzy classification, showed a higher accuracy in the Maxent outputs, demonstrating how the use of environmental variables, combined with spectral information in the classification of natural or semi-natural land cover classes, improves map accuracies. The modeling approach followed by this study, taking into account the uncertainty proper of the natural ecosystems and the use of environmental variables in land cover classification, can represent a useful approach to making more efficient and effective field inventories and to developing effective conservation policies.