Phylogenetic properties of Tertiary relict flora in the east Asian continental islands: imprint of climatic niche conservatism and in situ diversification

Understanding biodiversity patterns on islands has long been a central aim in ecology and conservation biology. Island‐specific biogeographical processes play substantial roles in the formation of endemic biota. Here, we examined how climate niche conservatism and geohistorical factors are interactively associated with in situ diversification of Tertiary relict flora in the east Asian continental islands. We generated two novel datasets for species distribution and phylogeny that included all of the known vascular plant species in Japan (5575). Then we tested phylogenetic signal of climatic tolerance, in terms of absolute minimum temperature and water balance, and explored environmental predictors of phylogenetic structure (evolutionary derivedness and clustering) of species assemblages. Although phylogenetic signal of climatic tolerance was significant across the phylogeny of most species, the strength of climatic niche conservatism differed among ferns, gymnosperms, angiosperm trees, and angiosperm herbs. For angiosperm trees, cold temperatures acted as environmental filters that generated phylogenetic derivedness/clustering of species assemblages. For fern and angiosperm herb species, however, phylogenetic properties were not associated with climatic harshness. These contrasting patterns among groups reflected climate niche evolution in vascular plants with different growth forms and traits; for example, diversification of angiosperm trees (but not fern and herb) occurred in response to historical climatic cooling. More importantly, geographical constraints contributed to evolutionary radiation that resulted from isolation by distance from the continent or by elevation. Quaternary climate change was also associated with clade‐specific radiation in refugial habitats. The degree to which geographical, geological, and palaeoclimatic variables explain the phylogenetic structure underscores the importance of isolation‐ and habitat‐stability‐related geohistorical processes in driving in situ diversification despite climatic niche conservatism. We propose that the highly endemic flora of the east Asian islands resulted from the interplay of idiosyncratic regional factors, and ecological and evolutionary processes, such as climate niche assembly and adaptive/nonadaptive radiation.     

Biogeographical determinants for total and endemic species richness in a continental archipelago

We examined the relationship between plant species richness and biogeographical variables (island area, island maximum elevation, distance from nearest inhabited island, distance from nearest mainland) using a data set comprising 201 islands of the Aegean archipelago. We found that endemic species richness was strongly correlated to total species richness. Single-island endemic species richness was most strongly correlated to island maximum elevation, and then to island area, with an apparent small island effect for islands smaller than 47 km². Total species richness was most strongly correlated to island area (with no apparent small island effect), and less strongly correlated to island maximum elevation. Distance from the mainland or other inhabited islands displayed limited predictive value in our data set. The slope of the relationship between species richness and geographical factors (island area, elevation, distance from island/mainland) was steeper for endemic species richness than for total richness. Finally, the different scales of endemicity (single-island endemics, island group endemics and Aegean regional endemics) displayed similar qualitative trends and only differed quantitatively. Thus, we conclude that different biogeographical factors act as drivers for total species richness than for endemic species richness.     

Quaternary and pre‐Quaternary historical legacies in the global distribution of a major tropical plant lineage

Aim The relative importance of current climate and past historical legacies is hotly debated. Here, we assess their role in determining the global distribution and diversity patterns of palms (Arecaceae), a widespread, species‐rich group of keystone ecological importance in tropical ecosystems. Location Global. Methods We assembled country‐level species lists world‐wide and compiled associated data on potential contemporary environmental drivers (current climate, habitat heterogeneity, area, and insularity), Quaternary glacial–interglacial climate change and major biogeographic regions to evaluate to what extent the global distribution and species richness patterns in palms reflect Quaternary climatic oscillations or regional effects reflecting pre‐Quaternary legacies. We also assessed for the first time if historical legacies differ between continents and islands, providing novel insights into determinants of insular species richness. Results Palm species richness was significantly affected by Quaternary climate changes and further differed between biogeographic regions even when both current environmental conditions and Quaternary climate changes were accounted for. In contrast, global limits to the distribution of the palm family were best explained by current temperature while biogeographic regional differences were unimportant and Quaternary climate change caused only a small constraint. Historical legacies were weak on islands, with only a small regional effect and no effect of Quaternary climate changes. Main conclusions Strong historical legacies supplement current environment as determinants of palm species richness. These primarily comprise pre‐Quaternary historical effects, reflected in low African species richness (possibly linked to pre‐Quaternary extinctions) and outstandingly high Neotropical and Indomalayan palm species richness (possibly linked to these regions' long‐term climatic suitability for palms). In contrast to species richness, the global distribution of the family range is largely in equilibrium with current climate. The small historical effects on islands are consistent with climatic buffering from their oceanic environment.     

Determinants of bird species richness,endemism, and island network roles in Wallacea and the West Indies: is geography sufficient or does current and historical climate matter?

Island biogeography has greatly contributed to our understanding of the processes determining species' distributions. Previous research has focused on the effects of island geography (i.e., island area, elevation, and isolation) and current climate as drivers of island species richness and endemism. Here, we evaluate the potential additional effects of historical climate on breeding land bird richness and endemism in Wallacea and the West Indies. Furthermore, on the basis of species distributions, we identify island biogeographical network roles and examine their association with geography, current and historical climate, and bird richness/endemism. We found that island geography, especially island area but also isolation and elevation, largely explained the variation in island species richness and endemism. Current and historical climate only added marginally to our understanding of the distribution of species on islands, and this was idiosyncratic to each archipelago. In the West Indies, endemic richness was slightly reduced on islands with historically unstable climates; weak support for the opposite was found in Wallacea. In both archipelagos, large islands with many endemics and situated far from other large islands had high importance for the linkage within modules, indicating that these islands potentially act as speciation pumps and source islands for surrounding smaller islands within the module and, thus, define the biogeographical modules. Large islands situated far from the mainland and/or with a high number of nonendemics acted as links between modules. Additionally, in Wallacea, but not in the West Indies, climatically unstable islands tended to interlink biogeographical modules. The weak and idiosyncratic effect of historical climate on island richness, endemism, and network roles indicates that historical climate had little effects on extinction‐immigration dynamics. This is in contrast to the strong effect of historical climate observed on the mainland, possibly because surrounding oceans buffer against strong climate oscillations and because geography is a strong determinant of island richness, endemism and network roles.     

Strong indication of an extinction‐based saturation of the flora on the Pacific Robinson Crusoe Islands

Oceanic islands are vulnerable ecosystems and their flora has been under pressure since the arrival of the first humans. Human activities and both deliberately and inadvertently introduced biota have had and continue to have a severe impact on island endemic plants. The number of alien plants has increased nearly linearly on many islands, perhaps resulting in extinction‐based saturation of island floras. Here, we provide evidence for such a scenario in Alejandro Selkirk, Robinson Crusoe Islands (Archipelago Juan Fernández, Chile). We compared species richness and species composition of historical vegetation samples from 1917 with recent ones from 2011. Changes in species’ relative occurrence frequency were related to their taxonomic affiliation, dispersal mode, distribution status, and humidity and temperature preferences. While total species richness of vascular plants remained relatively similar, species composition changed significantly. Plants endemic to the Robinson Crusoe Islands declined, exotic species increased substantially within the period of ca. 100 years. Further, the relative occurrence frequency of plants with preferences for very warm and humid climate decreased, while the opposite was found for plants preferring drier and colder environments. Potential drivers responsible for this dramatic shift in the vegetation within only one century might have been the large goat population affecting especially small populations of endemic plants and climatic changes. Taking into account a substantial extinction debt, we expect further shifts in the vegetation of this small oceanic island toward alien plants. This would have significant negative consequences on global biodiversity, considering that island floras contribute substantially to global plant species richness due to their high proportion of endemics.     

Butterfly,spider, and plant communities in different land-use types in Sardinia,Italy

Butterfly, spider, and plant species richness and diversity were investigated in five different land-use types in Sardinia. In 16 one-hectare plots we measured a set of 15 environmental variables to detect the most important factors determining patterns of variation in species richness, particularly endemicity. The studied land-use types encompassed homogeneous and heterogeneous shrublands, shrublands with tree-overstorey, Quercus forest and agricultural land. A total of 30 butterfly species, among which 10 endemics, and 50 spider (morpho)species, were recorded. Butterfly and spider community composition differed according to land-use type. The main environmental factors determining diversity patterns in butterflies were the presence of flowers and trees. Spiders reacted mainly to habitat heterogeneity and land-use type. Traditional land-use did not have adverse effects on the diversity of butterflies, spiders, or plants. The number of endemic butterfly species per treatment increased with total species richness and altitude. Butterfly and spider richness did not co-vary across the five land-use types. Butterflies were, however, positively associated with plant species richness and elevation, whereas spiders were not. Conclusively, butterflies did not appear to be good indicators for spider diversity and species richness at the studied sites.     

Species richness, rarity and endemicity on Italian offshore islands: complementary signals from island-focused and species-focused analyses

Aims To investigate the relative explanatory power of source faunas and geographical variables for butterfly incidence, frequency, richness, rarity, and endemicity on offshore islands. Location The western Italian offshore islands (Italy and Malta). Methods Thirty‐one islands were examined. Data were taken from our own field surveys and from the literature. Two approaches were undertaken, described as island‐focused and species‐focused, respectively. Offshore islands were allocated to their neighbouring source landmasses (Italian Peninsula, Sicily and Sardinia–Corsica) and compared with each other for faunal attributes, source and island geography. Generalized linear and stepwise multiple regression models were then used to determine the relationships of island species richness, rarity and endemicity with potential geographical predictors and source richness, rarity, and endemicity (island‐focused). Species frequency and incidence were assessed in relation to geographical and source predictors using stepwise linear and logistic regression, and inter‐island associations were examined using K‐Means clustering and non‐metric scaling (species‐focused). Results The analysis reveals firm evidence for the influence of the nearest large landmass sources on island species assemblages, richness, rarity and endemicity. A clear distinction in faunal affinities occurs between the Sardinian islands and islands lying offshore from the Italian mainland and Sicily. Islands neighbouring these three distinct sources differ significantly in richness, rarity and endemicity. Source richness, rarity, and endemicity have explanatory power for island richness, rarity, and endemicity, respectively, and together with island geography account for a substantial part of the variation in island faunas (richness 59%, rarity 60% and endemicity 64%). Source dominates the logistic regression parameters predicting the incidence of island species [13 (38%) of 34 species that could be analysed]; three ecological factors (source frequency, flight period and maximal altitude at which species live) explained 75% of the variation in the occurrence of species on the islands. Species found more frequently on islands occurred more frequently at sources, had longer flight periods, and occurred at lower altitudes at the sources. The incidence of most species on islands (84%) is correctly predicted by the same three variables. Main conclusions The Italian region of the Mediterranean Sea has a rich butterfly fauna comprising endemics and rare species as well as more cosmopolitan species. Analysis of island records benefited from the use of two distinct approaches, namely island‐focused and species‐focused, that sift distinct elements in island and source faunas. Clear contemporary signals appear in island–source relationships as well as historical signals. Differences among faunas relating to sources within the same region caution against assuming that contemporary (ecological) and historical (evolutionary) influences affect faunas of islands in different parts of the same region to the same extent. The implications of source–island relationships for the conservation of butterflies within the Italian region are considered, particularly for the long‐term persistence of species.     

厦门近岸海域无居民海岛植物区系和物种组成相似性

为摸清厦门近岸无居民海岛的主要植物群落类型, 于2017年10月调查了12个无居民海岛的植物组成, 共记录到维管束植物360种, 其中乔木78种, 小乔木或灌木109种, 藤本23种, 草本150种; 包含外来入侵植物49种, 其中恶性入侵种10种。植物区系分析表明, 厦门周边12个无居民海岛植物主要由泛热带分布种及其变型组成, 以热带、亚热带成分占主导地位, 符合其亚热带地理分布特点。总体上, 维管束植物物种相似性较高, 物种丰富度受海岛面积的影响较大, 与海岛面积存在显著的对数和幂函数关系。此外, 岸线长度、高程、周长/面积比等空间参数也对海岛物种丰富度产生一定的影响。岛屿间维管束植物物种相似性受生境多样性和岛屿边缘效应的影响, 仅吾屿可能存在小岛屿效应。     

Endemic regions of the vascular flora of the peninsula of Baja California,Mexico

Question: Can we recognize areas of high endemism and high endemic richness, using data from collections, and what are the ecological variables that best explain these areas? Location: Peninsula of Baja California, Mexico. Methods: We analysed the distribution of 723 endemic vascular plants species along the peninsula of Baja California and neighbouring islands distributed in 218 cartographic cells 15’ x 20’ in size. By means of a residual analysis, we identified areas of significantly high endemic species richness, and we calculated the degree of endemicity (or rarity) in each cell by giving to each species a weight factor inversely proportional to the land area it covers. Results: Nine regions of high‐endemicity and/or high endemic species richness were found. Discussion and conclusions: The analyses of rarity and endemic species richness showed two contrasting scenarios: High endemicity values in oceanic and sky islands accounts for a high number of species with a restricted distribution, promoted most likely by genetic isolation and high environmental heterogeneity. High endemic richness along the peninsular coast is related to ecotonal transition along vegetation types. After correcting for collection effort (i.e. the number of specimens collected within a cell), we found the phytogeographic region and altitudinal heterogeneity to be the variables that best predicted endemic richness. Both high endemism and high endemic richness have distinct geographic patterns within our study region. The nine endemic regions provide elements for priority definitions in future conservation programs.     

The Hitchhiker’s guide to island endemism: biodiversity and endemic perennial plant species in roadside and surrounding vegetation

Roadsides are habitats with very specific environmental conditions, often substantially differing from their natural surroundings. However, roads can have a positive effect on local vascular plant species richness. Endemic species on oceanic islands are considered to be less disturbance-adapted than native non-endemics and thus should be negatively affected by roads. Islands provide optimal conditions for testing this, as they possess a large share of clearly defined endemic species. This study focuses on a comparison of endemic plant species in roadside and surrounding communities and the interacting effects of elevation, vegetation type and trade wind-induced precipitation differences. We applied 96 circular plots with 50 m radius along two elevational gradients on the eastern (humid) and western (dry) slope of La Palma, Canary Islands, ranging from 100 to 2,400 m. Interestingly, we found roads to have a significant positive effect on endemic richness and the percentage of endemics as well as the same tendency for plant species richness after correcting for elevation and precipitation. Endemic species turnover was relatively high. The opening of cliffs during construction and, not to be overlooked, the protection from disturbances such as fire and omnipresent introduced herbivores (mainly rabbits or goats) probably leads to a positive effect of roads on endemics. In addition, many endemics might profit from species-specific dispersal capabilities well suited for roadside conditions. However, we do not argue for the use or even construction of roads for nature conservation but suggest protecting existing endemic populations because natural areas have a higher conservation value.     

Disproportional risk for habitat loss of high‐altitude endemic species under climate change

The expected upward shift of trees due to climate warming is supposed to be a major threat to range‐restricted high‐altitude species by shrinking the area of their suitable habitats. Our projections show that areas of endemism of five taxonomic groups (vascular plants, snails, spiders, butterflies, and beetles) in the Austrian Alps will, on average, experience a 77% habitat loss even under the weakest climate change scenario (+1.8 °C by 2100). The amount of habitat loss is positively related with the pooled endemic species richness (species from all five taxonomic groups) and with the richness of endemic vascular plants, snails, and beetles. Owing to limited postglacial migration, hotspots of high‐altitude endemics are situated in rather low peripheral mountain chains of the Alps, which have not been glaciated during the Pleistocene. There, tree line expansion disproportionally reduces habitats of high‐altitude species. Such legacies of climate history, which may aggravate extinction risks under future climate change have to be expected for many temperate mountain ranges.     

海南和台湾蕨类植物多样性及其大陆性特征

海南和台湾是我国南部和东部两个最重要的大陆性岛屿,具有极为丰富的蕨类植物多样性。特有现象揭示着植物区系和植物多样性的历史,间断分布揭示着与邻近或相关植物区系的联系;特别是在岛屿地区,这种现象和意义尤其明显。海南有蕨类植物区系55科、135属、466种,其中特有种有32种,台湾蕨类植物区系57科、142属、599种,其中特有种达66种。在海南与台湾两地,有共有属104属,共有种仅有176种。台湾海峡出现始于晚白垩世,持续至第四纪;琼州海峡出现于早第四纪,因此,两地的特有现象远少于种子植物(台湾有801种,海南有501种),原因与蕨类植物具有更广的散布性相关,而且在被子植物中起重要作用的物种生物学障碍(机制)在蕨类是缺乏的;形态学的、生殖生物学特征导致蕨类植物具有较缓慢的物种演化历史和较低的灭绝率(Smith,1972)。海南和台湾蕨类植物区系的比较还表明,地理位置和海拔高度对植物区系的物种分化和物种多样性产生了极大的影响。     

Butterflies of European islands: the implications of the geography and ecology of rarity and endemicity for conservation

Depending on their faunal content islands can function as important ‘vehicles’ for conservation. In this study, we examine data on 440 butterfly species over 564 European islands in 10 island groups. To determine the status of the butterfly fauna, we have adopted two approaches, island-focused and species-focused, examined using principal components analysis and regression modelling. In the former, we relate species richness, rarity and endemicity to island geography (area, elevation, isolation and location in latitude and longitude); in the latter, species occurrence on islands is examined in relation to distribution, range, range boundaries, and altitudinal limits on the continent as well as species’ ecology (number of host plants) and morphology (wing expanse). Species on islands are also assessed for their status on the continental mainland, their distributional dynamics (extinctions, distribution changes) and conservation status (Red Data Book, European Habitat Directive, Species of European Conservation Concern and Bern Convention listing. Unexpectedly, we find that a large fraction of the European butterfly species is found on the islands (63.4%; 59% on small islands) comprising some 6.2% of the land area of Europe. Although species occurring on the islands tend, on the whole, to have lower conservation status and are not declining over Europe, 45 species are endemics restricted to the islands. Species richness shows only a weak locational pattern and is related as expected to isolation from the continental source and island area; but, both rarity and endemicity have distinctive geographical bias to southern Europe, on islands now under increasing pressure from climate change and increasingly intensive human exploitation. The vulnerability of species on islands is emphasised in the relationship of island occurrence (% occurrence and presence/absence of species on any island) with continental distributions. A large proportion of the variation (84%) is accounted by continental distribution, the southern range limit and lower altitudinal limit. Most species (69%) occur on very few islands (<5%). In view of ongoing species dynamics on islands, migrations and extinctions of species, island repositories of species depend in large part on conservation of butterflies at continental sources. The unique faunas and rare species on islands also depend on appropriate concern being given to the island faunas. Conservation of European islands is thus a two-way process, sustaining sources and conserving island refuges. Residuals from the regressions (islands with more or fewer species, rare and endemic species; species occurring more or less frequently than expected on islands) provide warning signals of regions and islands deserving immediate attention.     

A transcontinental comparison of the diversity and composition of tropical forest understory herb assemblages

Although tropical forests are renowned for their high plant diversity, to date there has been no global quantitative evaluation of the local species richness of terrestrial forest herbs in tropical forests. In this paper, richness and composition of terrestrial herb assemblages is compared in tropical forests of America, Africa and South East Asia. We established 86 non-continuous transects of 445 m each. Herb species richness was analysed and compared to six environmental parameters using minimal adequate regression models and simultaneous autoregressive models. At the global scale, we found a close relationship between herb species richness and temperature parameters, with no differences between continents. The subdivision into three main taxonomic groups (ferns, monocots, dicots) showed that each group has distinct relations to environmental factors and differences in richness between continents. Most of the 72 families found have pantropical distributions but 12, 11, and 16 families were significantly over-represented in America, Africa, and Asia, respectively. Although total species richness was closely related to climatic factors, ferns, monocots and dicots were represented by distinct sets of families with varying species richness on each continent. Which species are found at a given site may thus reflect group-specific evolutionary and historical factors.     

Vascular plant diversity in eastern Asia and North America: historical and ecological explanations

Taxonomic diversity of vascular plants (ferns, gymnosperms and angiosperms) was compared between eastern Asia and North America. Eastern Asia has significantly higher species richness in all three classes but the difference was greatest in ferns and least in angiosperms. Differences in taxonomic treatments between the two continents are not likely contributors to these patterns. The relationship of regional to global species richness across the three plant classes suggested that diversity patterns were relatively homogeneous at three taxonomic levels. Thus, differences in species richness are established at the family level and are therefore relatively old. The previously noted fact that eastern Asia has a higher proportion of primitive taxa was shown by analyses both among and within plant classes. Diversity patterns across three taxonomic levels (i.e. family, genus and species) of the three classes may reflect the relative historical positions of the two continents (following continental drift) to the centre(s) of their origin, neighbouring land masses, differential speciation/extinction rates, and switches in dominance levels associated with climate change (including glaciation), as well as reproductive/dispersal mechanisms of the three plant classes.     

Patterns of endemism in riverine fish of the Northern Hemisphere

Loss of endemic species represents a symptom of general degrading ecosystem conditions that is the indirect result of biodiversity alteration. Here, we developed a predictive model relating species richness of endemic riverine fishes to measured biological, climatic, and historical variables using data from 118 rivers distributed all over the Northern Hemisphere. In a minimally adequate multiple general least square model, total riverine fish species richness, historical biogeography (Pleistocene glaciations), and comtemporary climate accounted for 63% of the variability in endemic species richness; the strongest correlate being riverine fish species richness. Our findings suggest that (i) endemism and richness patterns are generally similar (fish diversity "hot-spots" areas sustain higher endemic species richness); (ii) glaciation in the Pleistocene have had a significant negative influence on endemic species richness in the more septentrional areas; and (iii) certain basins situated in desertic areas (subtropical dry-zone of deserts) have unusually high numbers of endemics. These last areas should not be overshadowed when setting conservation priorities.     

Current and historical factors influencing patterns of species richness and turnover of birds in the Gulf of Guinea highlands

Aim The aims of this paper are to: examine how current and historical ecological factors affect patterns of species richness, endemism and turnover in the Gulf of Guinea highlands, test theoretical biogeographical predictions and provide information for making informed conservation decisions. Location The Gulf of Guinea highlands in West Africa. Methods We used multivariate and matrix regression models, and cluster analyses to assess the influence of current climate and current and historical isolation on patterns of richness and turnover for montane birds across the highlands. We examined three groups of birds: montane species (including widespread species), montane endemics and endemic subspecies. We applied a complementarity‐based reserve selection algorithm using species richness with irreplaceability measures to identify areas of high conservation concern. Results Environmental factors influenced richness for all groups of birds (species, endemic species and subspecies). Areas with high and consistent annual rainfall showed the highest species and endemic richness. Species clusters for all groups of birds generally differentiated three major montane regions, which are topographically isolated. Multiple mantel tests identified these same regions for endemic species and subspecies. The influence of historical isolation varied by species group; distributions of endemic montane species and subspecies were more associated with historical breaks than were all montane species, which included widespread non‐endemic species. Main conclusions Our analyses indicated important geographical structure amongst the bird assemblages in the highlands and, therefore, conservation prioritization should include mountains from within the geographical subregions identified in these analyses because these regions may harbour evolutionarily distinct populations of birds.     

Plant invasion and speciation along elevational gradients on the oceanic island La Palma,Canary Islands

Ecosystems that provide environmental opportunities but are poor in species and functional richness generally support speciation as well as invasion processes. These processes are expected not to be equally effective along elevational gradients due to specific ecological, spatial, and anthropogenic filters, thus controlling the dispersal and establishment of species. Here, we investigate speciation and invasion processes along elevational gradients. We assess the vascular plant species richness as well as the number and percentage of endemic species and non‐native species systematically along three elevational gradients covering large parts of the climatic range of La Palma, Canary Islands. Species richness was negatively correlated with elevation, while the percentage of Canary endemic species showed a positive relationship. However, the percentage of Canary–Madeira endemics did not show a relationship with elevation. Non‐native species richness (indicating invasion) peaked at 500 m elevation and showed a consistent decline until about 1,200 m elevation. Above that limit, no non‐native species were present in the studied elevational gradients. Ecological, anthropogenic, and spatial filters control richness, diversification, and invasion with elevation. With increase in elevation, richness decreases due to species–area relationships. Ecological limitations of native ruderal species related to anthropogenic pressure are in line with the absence of non‐native species from high elevations indicating directional ecological filtering. Increase in ecological isolation with elevation drives diversification and thus increased percentages of Canary endemics. The best preserved eastern transect, including mature laurel forests, is an exception. The high percentage of Canary–Madeira endemics indicates the cloud forest's environmental uniqueness—and thus ecological isolation—beyond the Macaronesian islands.     

Effects of climate change on the distribution of plant species and plant functional strategies on the Canary Islands

Aim

Oceanic islands possess unique floras with high proportions of endemic species. Island floras are expected to be severely affected by changing climatic conditions as species on islands have limited distribution ranges and small population sizes and face the constraints of insularity to track their climatic niches. We aimed to assess how ongoing climate change affects the range sizes of oceanic island plants, identifying species of particular conservation concern.

Location

Canary Islands, Spain.

Methods

We combined species occurrence data from single-island endemic, archipelago endemic and nonendemic native plant species of the Canary Islands with data on current and future climatic conditions. Bayesian Additive Regression Trees were used to assess the effect of climate change on species distributions; 71% (n = 502 species) of the native Canary Island species had models deemed good enough. To further assess how climate change affects plant functional strategies, we collected data on woodiness and succulence.

Results

Single-island endemic species were projected to lose a greater proportion of their climatically suitable area (x ̃ = −0.36) than archipelago endemics (x ̃ = −0.28) or nonendemic native species (x ̃ = −0.26), especially on Lanzarote and Fuerteventura, which are expected to experience less annual precipitation in the future. Moreover, herbaceous single-island endemics were projected to gain less and lose more climatically suitable area than insular woody single-island endemics. By contrast, we found that succulent single-island endemics and nonendemic natives gain more and lose less climatically suitable area.

Main Conclusions

While all native species are of conservation importance, we emphasise single-island endemic species not characterised by functional strategies associated with water use efficiency. Our results are particularly critical for other oceanic island floras that are not constituted by such a vast diversity of insular woody species as the Canary Islands.     

Conservation of oceanic island floras: Present and future global challenges

Current threats to the planet's biodiversity are unprecedented, and they particularly imperil insular floras. In this investigation, we use the threat factors identified by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment as the main drivers of biodiversity loss on islands to define and rank 13 current, continuing threats to the plant diversity of nine focal archipelagos where volcanic origin (or in the Seychelles a prolonged isolation after a continental origin) has produced a high degree of endemicity and fragility in the face of habitat alteration. We also conduct a global endangerment assessment based on the numbers of insular endemic plants in the endangered (EN) and critically endangered (CR) IUCN categories for 53 island groups with an estimated 9951 endemic plant species, providing a representative sample of the world's insular systems and their floristic richness. Our analyses indicate that isolation does not significantly influence endangerment, but plant endemics from very small islands are more often critically endangered. We estimate that between 3500 and 6800 of the estimated 70,000 insular endemic plant species worldwide might be highly threatened (CR+EN) and between ca. 2000 and 2800 of them in critical danger of extinction (CR). Based on these analyses, and on a worldwide literature review of the biological threat factors considered, we identify challenging questions for conservation research, asking (i) what are the most urgent priorities for the conservation of insular species and floras, and (ii) with the knowledge and assets available, how can we improve the impact of conservation science and practice on the preservation of island biodiversity? Our analysis indicates that the synergistic action of many threat factors can induce major ecological disturbances, leading to multiple extinctions. We review weaknesses and strengths in conservation research and management in the nine focal archipelagos, and highlight the urgent need for conservation scientists to share knowledge and expertise, identify and discuss common challenges, and formulate multi-disciplinary conservation objectives for insular plant endemics worldwide. To our knowledge, this is the most up-to-date and comprehensive survey yet to review the threat factors to native plants on oceanic islands and define priority research questions.