Acclimation effects of heat waves and elevated [CO2] on gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence of northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.) seedlings

Heat wave frequency and intensity are predicted to increase. We investigated whether repeated exposure to heat waves would induce acclimation in Quercus rubra seedlings and considered [CO₂] as an interacting factor. We measured gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence of seedlings grown in 380 (C _A) or 700 (C _E) μmol CO₂ mol^?1, and three temperature treatments (ambient, ambient +3 °C, and an ambient +12 °C heat wave every fourth week). Measurements were performed during the third and fourth +12 °C heat waves (July and August 2010) at Whitehall Forest, GA, USA. Additionally, previously unexposed seedlings were subjected to the August heat wave to serve as a control to determine acclimation of seedlings which were previously exposed. Seedlings with a history of heat wave exposure showed lower net photosynthesis (A _net) and stomatal conductance (on average ?47 and ?38 %, respectively) than seedlings with no such history, when both were subjected to the same +12 °C heat wave. During both heat waves, A _net significantly declined in the +12 °C treatment compared with the other treatments. Additionally, the A _net decline during the August compared with the July heat wave was stronger in C _E than in C _A, suggesting that elevated [CO₂] might have had a negative effect on acclimation capacity. We conclude that seedlings subjected to consecutive heat waves will moderate stomatal conductance outside the heat wave, to reduce water usage at lower temperatures, increasing survival at the expense of carbon assimilation.     

The impact of heat,cold, and heat waves on hospital admissions in eight cities in Korea

Although the impact of temperature on mortality is well documented, relatively fewer studies have evaluated the associations of temperature with morbidity outcomes such as hospital admissions, and most studies were conducted in North America or Europe. We evaluated weather and hospital admissions including specific causes (allergic disease, asthma, selected respiratory disease, and cardiovascular disease) in eight major cities in Korea from 2003 to 2008. We also explored potential effect modification by individual characteristics such as sex and age. We used hierarchical modeling to first estimate city-specific associations between heat, cold, or heat waves and hospitalizations, and then estimated overall effects. Stratified analyses were performed by cause of hospitalization, sex, and age (0–14, 15–64, 65–74, and ≥75 years). Cardiovascular hospitalizations were significantly associated with high temperature, whereas hospitalizations for allergic disease, asthma, and selected respiratory disease were significantly associated with low temperature. The overall heat effect for cardiovascular hospitalization was a 4.5 % (95 % confidence interval 0.7, 8.5 %) increase in risk comparing hospitalizations at 25 to 15 °C. For cold effect, the overall increase in risk of hospitalizations comparing 2 with 15 °C was 50.5 (13.7, 99.2 %), 43.6 (8.9, 89.5 %), and 53.6 % (9.8, 114.9 %) for allergic disease, asthma, and selected respiratory disease, respectively. We did not find statistically significant effects of heat waves compared with nonheat wave days. Our results suggest susceptible populations such as women and younger persons. Our findings provide suggestive evidence that both high and low ambient temperatures are associated with the risk of hospital admissions, particularly in women or younger person, in Korea.     

A climatic threshold triggers the die‐off of peat mosses during an extreme heat wave

Heat waves, which are projected to be more frequent and intense in a warmer climate, could become a serious threat to plants that rely on water surplus availability, such as bryophytes. Here, I take the advantage of the European summer 2003 climate anomaly to assess the impact of an extreme heat wave on peat mosses of the genus Sphagnum, a group of bryophytes forming the bulk of living and dead biomass in peatlands. With this aim, 20 selected bogs in the Italian Alps were checked for Sphagnum survival in the years following the heat wave. Over the study area, the period May–September 2003 was characterized by higher mean monthly air temperature (13.5 °C) and lower mean monthly precipitation (87 mm) compared with normal climatic conditions (11.5 °C and 117 mm, respectively) so that the heat wave coincided with a drought spell. As a consequence of the unusual water stress, I documented an increased mortality of peat mosses forming high hummocks. In particular, at habitat scale, the distribution of desiccated peat mosses was restricted to the hummock face receiving the greatest amount of solar irradiation. However, at regional scale, the present study identified a climatic threshold, simply defined by the ratio of precipitation to temperature (P : T), which triggered an irreversible desiccation of peat mosses when mean monthly P : T dropped below 6.5 (mm : °C) during May–September 2003. The absence of any sign of recovery after 4 years since the drought must be seen as a harbinger of the deleterious effects of extreme heat waves on organisms not adapted to cope with abrupt climate anomaly.     

The effect of heat waves,elevated [CO2] and low soil water availability on northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.) seedlings

The frequency and intensity of heat waves are predicted to increase. This study investigates whether heat waves would have the same impact as a constant increase in temperature with the same heat sum, and whether there would be any interactive effects of elevated [CO₂] and soil moisture content. We grew Quercus rubra seedlings in treatment chambers maintained at either ambient or elevated [CO₂] (380 or 700 μmol CO₂ mol^?1) with temperature treatments of ambient, ambient +3 °C, moderate heat wave (+6 °C every other week) or severe heat wave (+12 °C every fourth week) temperatures. Averaged over a 4‐week period, and the entire growing season, the three elevated temperature treatments had the same average temperature and heat sum. Half the seedlings were watered to a soil water content near field capacity, half to about 50% of this value. Foliar gas exchange measurements were performed morning and afternoon (9:00 and 15:00 hours) before, during and after an applied heat wave in August 2010. Biomass accumulation was measured after five heat wave cycles. Under ambient [CO₂] and well‐watered conditions, biomass accumulation was highest in the +3 °C treatment, intermediate in the +6 °C heat wave and lowest in the +12 °C heat wave treatment. This response was mitigated by elevated [CO₂]. Low soil moisture significantly decreased net photosynthesis (A_net) and biomass in all [CO₂] and temperature treatments. The +12 °C heat wave reduced afternoon A_net by 23% in ambient [CO₂]. Although this reduction was relatively greater under elevated [CO₂], A_net values during this heat wave were still 34% higher than under ambient [CO₂]. We concluded that heat waves affected biomass growth differently than the same amount of heat applied uniformly over the growing season, and that the plant response to heat waves also depends on [CO₂] and soil moisture conditions.     

A comparative analysis of heat waves and associated mortality in St. Louis, Missouri – 1980 and 1995

 This research investigates heat-related mortality during the 1980 and 1995 heat waves in St. Louis, Missouri. St. Louis has a long history of extreme summer weather, and heat-related mortality is a public health concern. Heat waves are defined as days with apparent temperatures exceeding 40.6°C (105°F). The study uses a multivariate analysis to investigate the relationship between mortality and heat wave intensity, duration, and timing within the summer season. The heat wave of 1980 was more severe and had higher associated mortality than that of 1995. To learn if changing population characteristics, in addition to weather conditions, contributed to this difference, changes in population vulnerability between 1980 and 1995 are evaluated under simulated heat wave conditions. The findings show that St. Louis remains at risk of heat wave mortality. In addition, there is evidence that vulnerability has increased despite increased air-conditioning penetration and public health interventions. Received: 12 August 1997 / Revised: 12 January 1998 / Accepted: 13 February 1998     

Excess mortality and morbidity during the July 2006 heat wave in Porto, Portugal

The purpose of this study was to understand the effects of the July 2006 heat wave through the use of the heat index, in mortality (all causes) and morbidity (all causes, respiratory and circulatory diseases) in general, and in people over 74 years and by gender, in Porto. In this paper, the Poisson generalized additive regression model was used to estimate the impact of apparent temperature (heat index) and daily mortality and morbidity during the July 2006 heat wave. Daily mortality, morbidity and heat index were correlated with lags of apparent temperature up to 7 days using Pearson correlation. For a 1°C increase in mean apparent temperature we observed a 2.7 % (95 % CI: 1.7–3.6 %) increase in mortality (all cause), a 1.7 % (95 % CI: 0.6–2.9 %) increase in respiratory morbidity, a 2.2 % (95 % CI: 0.4–4.1 %) increase in respiratory morbidity in women, a 5.4 % (95%CI: 1.1–6.6 %) increase in chronic obstructive pulmonary morbidity, and a 7.5 % (95 % CI: 1.3–14.1 %) increase in chronic obstructive pulmonary morbidity in women, for the entire population. For people?≥?75 years, our results showed a 3.3 % increase (95 % CI: 1.7–5.0 %) in respiratory morbidity, a 2.7 % (95 % CI: 0.4–5.1 %) increase in respiratory morbidity in men, a 3.9 % (95 %CI: 1.6–6.3 %) increase in respiratory morbidity in women, a 7.0 % (95 % CI: 1.1–13.2 %) in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and a 9.0 % (95 % CI: 0.3–18.5 %) in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in women. The use of heat index in a Mediterranean tempered climate enabled the identification of the effects of the July 2006 heat wave in mortality due to all causes and in respiratory morbidity of the general population, as well as in respiratory morbidity of individuals with more than 74 years of age.     

Effects of simulated heat waves on an experimental community of pepper plants,green peach aphids and two parasitoid species

Heat waves – extended periods of abnormally hot weather – are predicted to increase in severity and frequency under climate change. The severity of heat waves should impact communities and food webs through effects on performance of individual species and through changes in the strength of interactions between them. This study tested the effects of severity of simulated heat waves, with daily maxima of either 32°C or 40°C, on a tritrophic food web consisting of plants, Capsicum anuum, aphids, Myzus persicae and two parasitoids, Aphidius matricariae and Aphelinus abdominalis. Osmolarity of plant sap (concentration of dissolved solids) was highest under 40°C heat waves, suggesting the presence of secondary plant compounds involved with stress responses. Population growth of aphids was lower under heat waves (both 32°C and 40°C daily maxima), compared to environments with periodic hot days. Development time of parasitoids was longer under heat waves. Heat waves decreased the proportion of winged aphids in the population. When both parasitoid species were present, impacts on aphid populations were greater in heat wave environments than environments with periodic hot days. When either parasitoid species was by itself, heat waves did not affect the interaction between parasitoids and aphids. Numbers of A. matricariae were reduced in heat wave environments, whereas numbers of A. abdominalis were not. In addition to direct effects on individual species, we also obtained indirect evidence for the effects of heat waves on the bottom–up effects of plant stress compounds on herbivore performance, and on the strength of inter and intra‐specific competition. Our results demonstrate that heat waves could have important effects on community structure, and on important, community‐level processes such as intra‐guild interactions and trophic cascades.     

Impact of heat waves on mortality in Croatia

The aim of this work was to determine the criteria for heat loads associated with an increase in mortality in different climatic regions of Croatia. The relationship between heat stress and mortality was analysed for the period 1983–2008. The input series is excess mortality defined as the deviations of mortality from expected values determined by means of a Gaussian filter of 183 days. The assessment of the thermal environment was performed by means of physiologically equivalent temperature (PET). The curve depicting the relationship between mortality and temperature has a U shape, with increased mortality in both the cold and warm parts of the scale but more pronounced in the warm part. The threshold temperature for increased mortality was determined using a scatter plot and fitting data by means of moving average of mortality; the latter is defined as the temperature at which excess mortality becomes significant. The values are higher in the continental part of Croatia than at the coast due to the refreshing influence of the sea during the day. The same analysis on a monthly basis shows that at the beginning of the warm season increased mortality occurs at a lower temperature compared with later on in the summer, and the difference is up to 15 °C between August and April. The increase in mortality is highest during the first 3–5 days and after that it decreases and falls below the expected value. Long-lasting heat waves present an increased risk, but in very long heat waves the increase in mortality is reduced due to mortality displacement.     

Heat tolerance of early developmental stages of glacier foreland species in the growth chamber and in the field

In glacier forelands, seeds readily germinate, however, a high proportion of seedlings die shortly after their appearance. We hypothesized that besides drought, frost and missing safe sites, heat on the ground surface could be one of the major threats for seedlings. The heat strain in different ground strata was assessed from 2007 to 2010. The heat tolerance (LT₅₀) of eleven alpine species from different successional stages was tested considering imbibed (G1) and germinated seeds (G2) as well as seedlings (G3). Additionally, the heat hardening capacity of seedlings was determined in the field. Across all species, LT₅₀ decreased significantly by 9 K from G1 (55 °C) to G3 (46 °C), similarly in all species of the successional stages. Field-grown seedlings had mostly an increased LT₅₀ (2K). Intraspecifically, LT₅₀ of seedlings varied between 40.6 and 52.5 °C. Along the chronosequence, LT₅₀ in G1 was similar, but was higher in G2 and G3 of early successional species. The highest temperatures occurred at 0–0.5 cm in air (mean/absolute maximum: 42.6/54.1 °C) posing a significant heat injury risk for seedlings when under water shortage transpirational cooling is prevented. Below small stones (0–0.5 cm), maxima were 4 K lower, indicating heat safer microsites. Maxima >30 °C occurred at 32.3, >40 °C at 6.2 %. Interannually, 2010 was the hottest year with heat exceeding LT₅₀ at all microsites (0–0.5 cm). Temperature maxima on sandy surfaces were lower than on microsites with gravel (diameter <5–10 mm). The hot summer of 2010 may be a small foretaste of in future more severe and frequent heat waves. Ground surface temperature maxima at the pioneer stage are already now critical for heat survival and may partly explain the high seedling mortality recognized on recently deglaciated terrain.     

Heat wave impacts on mortality in Shanghai, 1998 and 2003

A variety of research has linked extreme heat to heightened levels of daily mortality and, not surprisingly, heat waves both in 1998 and in 2003 all led to elevated mortality in Shanghai, China. While the heat waves in the two years were similar in meteorological character, elevated mortality was much more pronounced during the 1998 event, but it remains unclear why the human response was so varied. In order to explain the differences in human mortality between the two years’ heat waves, and to better understand how heat impacts human health, we examine a wide range of meteorological, pollution, and social variables in Shanghai during the summers (15 June to 15 September) of 1998 and 2003. Thus, the goal of this study is to determine what was responsible for the varying human health response during the two heat events. A multivariate analysis is used to investigate the relationships between mortality and heat wave intensity, duration, and timing within the summer season, along with levels of air pollution. It was found that for heat waves in both summers, mortality was strongly associated with the duration of the heat wave. In addition, while slightly higher than average, the air pollution levels for the two heat waves were similar and cannot fully explain the observed differences in human mortality. Finally, since the meteorological conditions and pollution levels for the two heat waves were alike, we conclude that improvements in living conditions in Shanghai, such as increased use of air conditioning, larger living areas, and increased urban green space, along with higher levels of heat awareness and the implementation of a heat warning system, were responsible for the lower levels of human mortality in 2003 compared to 1998.     

Short-term effects of extreme hot summer temperatures on total daily mortality in Barcelona, Spain

The summer of 2003 was exceptionally hot, leading to an excess of mortality in Europe. Here, we assess the short-term effects of extreme hot summer temperatures on total daily mortality in Barcelona (Spain). Daily mortality from burial records, maximum temperature, relative humidity and photochemical pollutants, were collected for the period 1999–2003. Data was analysed using Poisson regression with generalised additive models. Mortality shows a considerable increase when maximum temperatures are over a threshold temperature of 30.5°C. The risk of death associated with an increase of 1°C above the threshold was 6%, 7% and 5% after 1, 2 and 3 days, respectively. Exposure to extreme hot temperatures leads to an significant increase in mortality.     

Heat waves imposed during early pod development in soybean (Glycine max) cause significant yield loss despite a rapid recovery from oxidative stress

Heat waves already have a large impact on crops and are predicted to become more intense and more frequent in the future. In this study, heat waves were imposed on soybean using infrared heating technology in a fully open‐air field experiment. Five separate heat waves were applied to field‐grown soybean (Glycine max) in central Illinois, three in 2010 and two in 2011. Thirty years of historical weather data from Illinois were analyzed to determine the length and intensity of a regionally realistic heat wave resulting in experimental heat wave treatments during which day and night canopy temperatures were elevated 6 °C above ambient for 3 days. Heat waves were applied during early or late reproductive stages to determine whether and when heat waves had an impact on carbon metabolism and seed yield. By the third day of each heat wave, net photosynthesis (A), specific leaf weight (SLW), and leaf total nonstructural carbohydrate concentration (TNC) were decreased, while leaf oxidative stress was increased. However, A, SLW, TNC, and measures of oxidative stress were no different than the control ca. 12 h after the heat waves ended, indicating rapid physiological recovery from the high‐temperature stress. That end of season seed yield was reduced (~10%) only when heat waves were applied during early pod developmental stages indicates the yield loss had more to do with direct impacts of the heat waves on reproductive process than on photosynthesis. Soybean was unable to mitigate yield loss after heat waves given during late reproductive stages. This study shows that short high‐temperature stress events that reduce photosynthesis and increase oxidative stress resulted in significant losses to soybean production in the Midwest, U.S. The study also suggests that to mitigate heat wave‐induced yield loss, soybean needs improved reproductive and photosynthetic tolerance to high but increasingly common temperatures.     

A first assessment of the impact of the extreme 2018 summer drought on Central European forests

In 2018, Central Europe experienced one of the most severe and long-lasting summer drought and heat wave ever recorded. Before 2018, the 2003 millennial drought was often invoked as the example of a “hotter drought”, and was classified as the most severe event in Europe for the last 500 years. First insights now confirm that the 2018 drought event was climatically more extreme and had a greater impact on forest ecosystems of Austria, Germany and Switzerland than the 2003 drought. Across this region, mean growing season air temperature from April to October was more than 3.3°C above the long-term average, and 1.2°C warmer than in 2003. Here, we present a first impact assessment of the severe 2018 summer drought and heatwave on Central European forests. In response to the 2018 event, most ecologically and economically important tree species in temperate forests of Austria, Germany and Switzerland showed severe signs of drought stress. These symptoms included exceptionally low foliar water potentials crossing the threshold for xylem hydraulic failure in many species and observations of widespread leaf discoloration and premature leaf shedding. As a result of the extreme drought stress, the 2018 event caused unprecedented drought-induced tree mortality in many species throughout the region. Moreover, unexpectedly strong drought-legacy effects were detected in 2019. This implies that the physiological recovery of trees was impaired after the 2018 drought event, leaving them highly vulnerable to secondary drought impacts such as insect or fungal pathogen attacks. As a consequence, mortality of trees triggered by the 2018 events is likely to continue for several years. Our assessment indicates that many common temperate European forest tree species are more vulnerable to extreme summer drought and heat waves than previously thought. As drought and heat events are likely to occur more frequently with the progression of climate change, temperate European forests might approach the point for a substantial ecological and economic transition. Our assessment also highlights the urgent need for a pan-European ground-based monitoring network suited to track individual tree mortality, supported by remote sensing products with high spatial and temporal resolution to track, analyse and forecast these transitions.     

Thermal acclimation of broiler birds by intermittent heat exposure

Heat stress impairs the performance of broilers which increases the economic losses. Effect of duration of heat exposure on performance and acclimatory responses in broiler birds was investigated. At 21 d of age 160 Hubbard birds (80 males+80 females) were equally distributed into 5 treatments (T). The T1, T2, T3 and T4 were acclimated by daily exposure to heat (38±1 °C, 62±2% RH) for 1, 2, 3 and 4 h/d, respectively, for 14 d. T0 was the non-acclimated control (kept at 22±2 °C, 65±2% RH). At 36 d of age the thermotolerance of all birds was evaluated under simulated heat wave conditions by exposing them to an acute heat stress (43±1 °C, 55±3% RH) for 4 h. Body weight (BW), average daily gain (ADG) and average daily feed intake (ADFI) were not affected in T2 and T3, while T3 and T4 showed significant reductions in BW, ADG and ADFI compared to the control. Daily changes in ADFI/kg of metabolic BW (ADFI/BW^0.75), rectal temperature (Tr), rate of increase in rectal temperature (RITr) and evaporative water loss (EWL) showed biphasic patterns of acclimatory responses. The 2 phases were distinctly differentiated by plateau days. Phase 1 characterized by a sharp decline in ADFI/BW^0.75 followed by a gradual increase until the plateau, while Tr, RITr and EWL increased sharply followed by gradual decreases until the plateau. Beyond the plateau (phase 2), homeostatic responses in ADFI/BW^0.75, Tr, RITr and EWL were observed toward the end of the study. Acclimated birds were able to withstand the simulated heat wave with 0% mortality, lower Tr, and longer survival time compared to the control. In conclusion, acclimation could protect birds from acute heat waves and associated heat stress mortality until marketing age. However, applicability of these results towards the industry needs further investigations.     

Climate warming and heat waves affect reproductive strategies and interactions between submerged macrophytes

Extreme climatic events, such as heat waves, are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity during the next hundred years, which may accelerate shifts in hydrological regimes and submerged macrophyte composition in freshwater ecosystems. Since macrophytes are profound components of aquatic systems, predicting their response to extreme climatic events is crucial for implementation of climate change adaptation strategies. We therefore performed an experiment in 24 outdoor enclosures (400 L) separating the impact of a 4 °C increase in mean temperature with the same increase, that is the same total amount of energy input, but resembling a climate scenario with extreme variability, oscillating between 0 °C and 8 °C above present conditions. We show that at the moderate nutrient conditions provided in our study, neither an increase in mean temperature nor heat waves lead to a shift from a plant‐dominated to an algal‐dominated system. Instead, we show that species‐specific responses to climate change among submerged macrophytes may critically influence species composition and thereby ecosystem functioning. Our results also imply that more fluctuating temperatures affect the number of flowers produced per plant leading to less sexual reproduction. Our findings therefore suggest that predicted alterations in climate regimes may influence both plant interactions and reproductive strategies, which have the potential to inflict changes in biodiversity, community structure and ecosystem functioning.     

Time trends in minimum mortality temperatures in Castile-La Mancha (Central Spain): 1975–2003

The relationship between air temperature and human mortality is described as non-linear, with mortality tending to rise in response to increasingly hot or cold ambient temperatures from a given minimum mortality or optimal comfort temperature, which varies from some areas to others according to their climatic and socio-demographic characteristics. Changes in these characteristics within any specific region could modify this relationship. This study sought to examine the time trend in the maximum temperature of minimum organic-cause mortality in Castile-La Mancha, from 1975 to 2003. The analysis was performed by using daily series of maximum temperatures and organic-cause mortality rates grouped into three decades (1975–1984, 1985–1994, 1995–2003) to compare confidence intervals (p < 0.05) obtained by estimating the 10-yearly mortality rates corresponding to the maximum temperatures of minimum mortality calculated for each decade. Temporal variations in the effects of cold and heat on mortality were ascertained by means of ARIMA models (Box-Jenkins) and cross-correlation functions (CCF) at seven lags. We observed a significant decrease in comfort temperature (from 34.2°C to 27.8°C) between the first two decades in the Province of Toledo, along with a growing number of significant lags in the summer CFF (1, 3 and 5, respectively). The fall in comfort temperature is attributable to the increase in the effects of heat on mortality, due, in all likelihood, to the percentage increase in the elderly population.     

Effect of low temperature on emergence, fecundity, longevity and host-feeding by Trichogramma brassicae

The occurrence of sub-optimal temperatures during development of immature parasitoids can have important consequences on adult fitness. We investigated the impact of different regimes of low temperature on emergence, differential mortality, longevity and fecundity in Trichogramma brassicae Bezdenko (Hymenoptera: Trichogrammatidae). The host-feeding behaviour of adult females was also measured as an indicator of energy reserve at emergence. Acclimation of 30 days at 10 °C or 24 days at 13 °C allowed T. brassicae immatures to develop with a lower mortality than those exposed directly at 5 °C. Longevity and fecundity of females decreased at a lower rate with acclimation at 10 °C suggesting that acclimation at 13 °C may have depleted the energy reserves of individuals more than acclimation at 10 °C. Short photoperiod exposure during the maternal generation had no effect on progeny’s fitness. We found no difference among the treatments in females’ host-feeding behaviours, in differential mortality at emergence, in female’s mobility and in F1 sex ratio.     

Are heat waves susceptible to mitigate the expansion of a species progressing with global warming?

A number of organisms, especially insects, are extending their range in response of the increasing trend of warmer temperatures. However, the effects of more frequent climatic anomalies on these species are not clearly known. The pine processionary moth, Thaumetopoea pityocampa, is a forest pest that is currently extending its geographical distribution in Europe in response to climate warming. However, its population density largely decreased in its northern expansion range (near Paris, France) the year following the 2003 heat wave. In this study, we tested whether the 2003 heat wave could have killed a large part of egg masses. First, the local heat wave intensity was determined. Then, an outdoor experiment was conducted to measure the deviation between the temperatures recorded by weather stations and those observed within sun‐exposed egg masses. A second experiment was conducted under laboratory conditions to simulate heat wave conditions (with night/day temperatures of 20/32°C and 20/40°C compared to the control treatment 13/20°C) and measure the potential effects of this heat wave on egg masses. No effects were noticed on egg development. Then, larvae hatched from these egg masses were reared under mild conditions until the third instar and no delayed effects on the development of larvae were found. Instead of eggs, the 2003 heat wave had probably affected directly or indirectly the young larvae that were already hatched when it occurred. Our results suggest that the effects of extreme climatic anomalies occurring over narrow time windows are difficult to determine because they strongly depend on the life stage of the species exposed to these anomalies. However, these effects could potentially reduce or enhance the average warming effects. As extreme weather conditions are predicted to become more frequent in the future, it is necessary to disentangle the effects of the warming trend from the effects of climatic anomalies when predicting the response of a species to climate change.     

A simple indicator to rapidly assess the short-term impact of heat waves on mortality within the French heat warning system

We propose a simple method to provide a rapid and robust estimate of the short-term impacts of heat waves on mortality, to be used for communication within a heat warning system. The excess mortality during a heat wave is defined as the difference between the observed mortality over the period and the observed mortality over the same period during the N preceding years. This method was tested on 19 French cities between 1973 and 2007. In six cities, we compared the excess mortality to that obtained using a modelling of the temperature-mortality relationship. There was a good agreement between the excess mortalities estimated by the simple indicator and by the models. Major differences were observed during the most extreme heat waves, in 1983 and 2003, and after the implementation of the heat prevention plan in 2006. Excluding these events, the mean difference between the estimates obtained by the two methods was of 13 deaths [1:45]. A comparison of mortality with the previous years provides a simple estimate of the mortality impact of heat waves. It can be used to provide early and reliable information to stakeholders of the heat prevention plan, and to select heat waves that should be further investigated.