Detecting emerging transmissibility of avian influenza virus in human households

Accumulating infections of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in humans underlines the need to track the ability of these viruses to spread among humans. A human-transmissible avian influenza virus is expected to cause clusters of infections in humans living in close contact. Therefore, epidemiological analysis of infection clusters in human households is of key importance. Infection clusters may arise from transmission events from (i) the animal reservoir, (ii) humans who were infected by animals (primary human-to-human transmission), or (iii) humans who were infected by humans (secondary human-to-human transmission). Here we propose a method of analysing household infection data to detect changes in the transmissibility of avian influenza viruses in humans at an early stage. The method is applied to an outbreak of H7N7 avian influenza virus in The Netherlands that was the cause of more than 30 human-to-human transmission events. The analyses indicate that secondary human-to-human transmission is plausible for the Dutch household infection data. Based on the estimates of the within-household transmission parameters, we evaluate the effectiveness of antiviral prophylaxis, and conclude that it is unlikely that all household infections can be prevented with current antiviral drugs. We discuss the applicability of our method for the detection of emerging human-to-human transmission of avian influenza viruses in particular, and for the analysis of within-household infection data in general.     

The evolutionary emergence of pandemic influenza

Pandemic influenza remains a serious public health threat and the processes involved in the evolutionary emergence of pandemic influenza strains remain incompletely understood. Here, we develop a stochastic model for the evolutionary emergence of pandemic influenza, and use it to address three main questions. (i) What is the minimum annual number of avian influenza virus infections required in humans to explain the historical rate of pandemic emergence? (ii) Are such avian influenza infections in humans more likely to give rise to pandemic strains if they are driven by repeated cross-species introductions, or by low-level transmission of avian influenza viruses between humans? (iii) What are the most effective interventions for reducing the probability that an influenza strain with pandemic potential will evolve? Our results suggest that if evolutionary emergence of past pandemics has occurred primarily through viral reassortment in humans, then thousands of avian influenza virus infections in humans must have occurred each year for the past 250 years. Analyses also show that if there is epidemiologically significant variation among avian influenza virus genotypes, then avian virus outbreaks stemming from repeated cross-species transmission events result in a greater likelihood of a pandemic strain evolving than those caused by low-level transmission between humans. Finally, public health interventions aimed at reducing the duration of avian virus infections in humans give the greatest reduction in the probability that a pandemic strain will evolve.     

人感染H7亚型禽流感事件

本研究综述了自1959年以来国内外发生的人感染H7亚型禽流感事件。大多数是在家禽爆发禽流感期间,农场工人在处置感染鸡群过程中被暴露而感染;也有曾接触活禽或曾到过活禽市场而感染;有经禽流感病毒致病的哺乳动物（海豹）感染于人或实验室感染（事故）所致。引起人感染的H7亚型中已知有H7N2、H7N3、H7N7以及2013年在中国发现的新的致病亚型H7N9。H7N2、H7N3、H7N7感染以结膜炎为主,大多为轻症;而H7N9感染以严重的呼吸道感染为特征,表现为重症肺炎,呼吸窘迫综合症,病死率高达33.6%。     

Evidence of infection with H4 and H11 avian influenza viruses among Lebanese chicken growers

Human infections with H5, H7, and H9 avian influenza viruses are well documented. Exposure to poultry is the most important risk factor for humans becoming infected with these viruses. Data on human infection with other low pathogenicity avian influenza viruses is sparse but suggests that such infections may occur. Lebanon is a Mediterranean country lying under two major migratory birds flyways and is home to many wild and domestic bird species. Previous reports from this country demonstrated that low pathogenicity avian influenza viruses are in circulation but highly pathogenic H5N1 viruses were not reported. In order to study the extent of human infection with avian influenza viruses in Lebanon, we carried out a seroprevalence cross-sectional study into which 200 poultry-exposed individuals and 50 non-exposed controls were enrolled. We obtained their sera and tested it for the presence of antibodies against avian influenza viruses types H4 through H16 and used a questionnaire to collect exposure data. Our microneutralization assay results suggested that backyard poultry growers may have been previously infected with H4 and H11 avian influenza viruses. We confirmed these results by using a horse red blood cells hemagglutination inhibition assay. Our data also showed that farmers with antibodies against each virus type clustered in a small geographic area suggesting that unrecognized outbreaks among birds may have led to these human infections. In conclusion, this study suggests that occupational exposure to chicken is a risk factor for infection with avian influenza especially among backyard growers and that H4 and H11 influenza viruses may possess the ability to cross the species barrier to infect humans.     

Distinct Host Tropism Protein Signatures to Identify Possible Zoonotic Influenza A Viruses

Zoonotic influenza A viruses constantly pose a health threat to humans as novel strains occasionally emerge from the avian population to cause human infections. Many past epidemic as well as pandemic strains have originated from avian species. While most viruses are restricted to their primary hosts, zoonotic strains can sometimes arise from mutations or reassortment, leading them to acquire the capability to escape host species barrier and successfully infect a new host. Phylogenetic analyses and genetic markers are useful in tracing the origins of zoonotic infections, but there are still no effective means to identify high risk strains prior to an outbreak. Here we show that distinct host tropism protein signatures can be used to identify possible zoonotic strains in avian species which have the potential to cause human infections. We have discovered that influenza A viruses can now be classified into avian, human, or zoonotic strains based on their host tropism protein signatures. Analysis of all influenza A viruses with complete proteome using the host tropism prediction system, based on machine learning classifications of avian and human viral proteins has uncovered distinct signatures of zoonotic strains as mosaics of avian and human viral proteins. This is in contrast with typical avian or human strains where they show mostly avian or human viral proteins in their signatures respectively. Moreover, we have found that zoonotic strains from the same influenza outbreaks carry similar host tropism protein signatures characteristic of a common ancestry. Our results demonstrate that the distinct host tropism protein signature in zoonotic strains may prove useful in influenza surveillance to rapidly identify potential high risk strains circulating in avian species, which may grant us the foresight in anticipating an impending influenza outbreak.     

Emerging and re-emerging viral infections in Europe

Emerging viral infections are becoming a serious problem in Europe in the recent years. This is particularly true for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), West Nile virus (WNV) disease, Toscana virus (TOSV) disease, and potentially for avian influenza virus (H5N1). In contrast, emergence or re-emergence of severe viral infections, including tick borne encephalitis virus, and viral haemorrhagic fever caused by Hantavirus and dengue virus have been frequently reported in several European countries. Laboratory diagnosis of these viral infections based on viral isolation or detection by immune electron microscopy, immunoassay and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) has dramatically improved in the recent years, and SARS represents a good example of a diagnostic approach to emerging viral infections. Finally, old and new promising agents are in the pipeline of pharmaceutical companies to treat emerging viral infections. However only prevention based on large epidemiological studies, and research and development of new vaccines may be able to control and eventually eradicate these deadly viral infections.     

Role of receptor binding specificity in influenza A virus transmission and pathogenesis

The recent emergence of a novel avian A/H7N9 influenza virus in poultry and humans in China, as well as laboratory studies on adaptation and transmission of avian A/H5N1 influenza viruses, has shed new light on influenza virus adaptation to mammals. One of the biological traits required for animal influenza viruses to cross the species barrier that received considerable attention in animal model studies, in vitro assays, and structural analyses is receptor binding specificity. Sialylated glycans present on the apical surface of host cells can function as receptors for the influenza virus hemagglutinin (HA) protein. Avian and human influenza viruses typically have a different sialic acid (SA)‐binding preference and only few amino acid changes in the HA protein can cause a switch from avian to human receptor specificity. Recent experiments using glycan arrays, virus histochemistry, animal models, and structural analyses of HA have added a wealth of knowledge on receptor binding specificity. Here, we review recent data on the interaction between influenza virus HA and SA receptors of the host, and the impact on virus host range, pathogenesis, and transmission. Remaining challenges and future research priorities are also discussed.     

禽流感及其免疫防制研究

禽流感一直是严重危害世界各国养禽业发展的头号大敌,近期又成为继严重急性呼吸道综合症(SARS)后又一严重威胁人类生命安全的重要疾病,由于禽流感病毒抗原及其致病力的易变性,这就要求未来的防制策略要采取快速检测,并用先进的分子生物学技术进行病毒鉴定、检疫及免疫保护等措施,建立全国性甚至全球性禽流感检测防制网络,并且搞清禽流感与人类流感的关系,从而保证人和动物的安全.     

Scientific barriers to developing vaccines against avian influenza viruses

The increasing number of reports of direct transmission of avian influenza viruses to humans underscores the need for control strategies to prevent an influenza pandemic. Vaccination is the key strategy to prevent severe illness and death from pandemic influenza. Despite long-term experience with vaccines against human influenza viruses, researchers face several additional challenges in developing human vaccines against avian influenza viruses. In this Review, we discuss the features of avian influenza viruses, the gaps in our understanding of infections caused by these viruses in humans and of the immune response to them that distinguishes them from human influenza viruses, and the current status of vaccine development.     

The aetiology of SARS: Koch's postulates fulfilled

Proof that a newly identified coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) is the primary cause of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) came from a series of studies on experimentally infected cynomolgus macaques (Macaca fascicularis). SARS-CoV-infected macaques developed a disease comparable to SARS in humans; the virus was re-isolated from these animals and they developed SARS-CoV-specific antibodies. This completed the fulfilment of Koch's postulates, as modified by Rivers for viral diseases, for SARS-CoV as the aetiological agent of SARS. Besides the macaque model, a ferret and a cat model for SARS-CoV were also developed. These animal models allow comparative pathogenesis studies for SARS-CoV infections and testing of different intervention strategies. The first of these studies has shown that pegylated interferon-alpha, a drug approved for human use, limits SARS-CoV replication and lung damage in experimentally infected macaques. Finally, we argue that, given the worldwide nature of the socio-economic changes that have predisposed for the emergence of SARS and avian influenza in Southeast Asia, such changes herald the beginning of a global trend for which we are ill prepared.     

Quantification of Bird-to-Bird and Bird-to-Human Infections during 2013 Novel H7N9 Avian Influenza Outbreak in China

From February to May, 2013, 132 human avian influenza H7N9 cases were identified in China resulting in 37 deaths. We developed a novel, simple and effective compartmental modeling framework for transmissions among (wild and domestic) birds as well as from birds to human, to infer important epidemiological quantifiers, such as basic reproduction number for bird epidemic, bird-to-human infection rate and turning points of the epidemics, for the epidemic via human H7N9 case onset data and to acquire useful information regarding the bird-to-human transmission dynamics. Estimated basic reproduction number for infections among birds is 4.10 and the mean daily number of human infections per infected bird is 3.16*10⁻⁵ [3.08*10⁻⁵, 3.23*10⁻⁵]. The turning point of 2013 H7N9 epidemic is pinpointed at April 16 for bird infections and at April 9 for bird-to-human transmissions. Our result reveals very low level of bird-to-human infections, thus indicating minimal risk of widespread bird-to-human infections of H7N9 virus during the outbreak. Moreover, the turning point of the human epidemic, pinpointed at shortly after the implementation of full-scale control and intervention measures initiated in early April, further highlights the impact of timely actions on ending the outbreak. This is the first study where both the bird and human components of an avian influenza epidemic can be quantified using only the human case data.     

Little Evidence of Subclinical Avian Influenza Virus Infections among Rural Villagers in Cambodia

In 2008, 800 adults living within rural Kampong Cham Province, Cambodia were enrolled in a prospective cohort study of zoonotic influenza transmission. After enrollment, participants were contacted weekly for 24 months to identify acute influenza-like illnesses (ILI). Follow-up sera were collected at 12 and 24 months. A transmission substudy was also conducted among the family contacts of cohort members reporting ILI who were influenza A positive. Samples were assessed using serological or molecular techniques looking for evidence of infection with human and avian influenza viruses. Over 24 months, 438 ILI investigations among 284 cohort members were conducted. One cohort member was hospitalized with a H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus infection and withdrew from the study. Ninety-seven ILI cases (22.1%) were identified as influenza A virus infections by real-time RT-PCR; none yielded evidence for AIV. During the 2 years of follow-up, 21 participants (3.0%) had detectable antibody titers (≥1∶10) against the studied AIVs: 1 against an avian-like A/Migratory duck/Hong Kong/MPS180/2003(H4N6), 3 against an avian-like A/Teal/Hong Kong/w312/97(H6N1), 9 (3 of which had detectible antibody titers at both 12- and 24-month follow-up) against an avian-like A/Hong Kong/1073/1999(H9N2), 6 (1 detected at both 12- and 24-month follow-up) against an avian-like A/Duck/Memphis/546/74(H11N9), and 2 against an avian-like A/Duck/Alberta/60/76(H12N5). With the exception of the one hospitalized cohort member with H5N1 infection, no other symptomatic avian influenza infections were detected among the cohort. Serological evidence for subclinical infections was sparse with only one subject showing a 4-fold rise in microneutralization titer over time against AvH12N5. In summary, despite conducting this closely monitored cohort study in a region enzootic for H5N1 HPAI, we were unable to detect subclinical avian influenza infections, suggesting either that these infections are rare or that our assays are insensitive at detecting them.     

Comparative analysis of avian influenza virus diversity in poultry and humans during a highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H7N7) virus outbreak

Although increasing data have become available that link human adaptation with specific molecular changes in nonhuman influenza viruses, the molecular changes of these viruses during a large highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAI) outbreak in poultry along with avian-to-human transmission have never been documented. By comprehensive virologic analysis of combined veterinary and human samples obtained during a large HPAI A (H7N7) outbreak in the Netherlands in 2003, we mapped the acquisition of human adaptation markers to identify the public health risk associated with an HPAI outbreak in poultry. Full-length hemagglutinin (HA), neuraminidase (NA), and PB2 sequencing of A (H7N7) viruses obtained from 45 human cases showed amino acid variations at different codons in HA (n=20), NA (n=23), and PB2 (n=23). Identification of the avian sources of human virus infections based on 232 farm sequences demonstrated that for each gene about 50% of the variation was already present in poultry. Polygenic accumulation and farm-to-farm spread of known virulence and human adaptation markers in A (H7N7) virus-infected poultry occurred prior to farm-to-human transmission. These include the independent emergence of HA A143T mutants, accumulation of four NA mutations, and farm-to-farm spread of virus variants harboring mammalian host determinants D701N and S714I in PB2. This implies that HPAI viruses with pandemic potential can emerge directly from poultry. Since the public health risk of an avian influenza virus outbreak in poultry can rapidly change, we recommend virologic monitoring for human adaptation markers among poultry as well as among humans during the course of an outbreak in poultry.     

Conservation of T cell epitopes between seasonal influenza viruses and the novel influenza A H7N9 virus

A novel avian influenza A (H7N9) virus recently emerged in the Yangtze River delta and caused diseases, often severe, in over 130 people. This H7N9 virus appeared to infect humans with greater ease than previous avian influenza virus subtypes such as H5N1 and H9N2. While there are other potential explanations for this large number of human infections with an avian influenza virus, we investigated whether a lack of conserved T-cell epitopes between endemic H1N1 and H3N2 influenza viruses and the novel H7N9 virus contributes to this observation. Here we demonstrate that a number of T cell epitopes are conserved between endemic H1N1 and H3N2 viruses and H7N9 virus. Most of these conserved epitopes are from viral internal proteins. The extent of conservation between endemic human seasonal influenza and avian influenza H7N9 was comparable to that with the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1. Thus, the ease of inter-species transmission of H7N9 viruses (compared with avian H5N1 viruses) cannot be attributed to the lack of conservation of such T cell epitopes. On the contrary, our findings predict significant T-cell based cross-reactions in the human population to the novel H7N9 virus. Our findings also have implications for H7N9 virus vaccine design.     

Emergence of influenza A viruses.

Pandemic influenza in humans is a zoonotic disease caused by the transfer of influenza A viruses or virus gene segments from animal reservoirs. Influenza A viruses have been isolated from avian and mammalian hosts, although the primary reservoirs are the aquatic bird populations of the world. In the aquatic birds, influenza is asymptomatic, and the viruses are in evolutionary stasis. The aquatic bird viruses do not replicate well in humans, and these viruses need to reassort or adapt in an intermediate host before they emerge in human populations. Pigs can serve as a host for avian and human viruses and are logical candidates for the role of intermediate host. The transmission of avian H5N1 and H9N2 viruses directly to humans during the late 1990s showed that land-based poultry also can serve between aquatic birds and humans as intermediate hosts of influenza viruses. That these transmission events took place in Hong Kong and China adds further support to the hypothesis that Asia is an epicentre for influenza and stresses the importance of surveillance of pigs and live-bird markets in this area.     

人禽流感疾病流行病学特征及其防治措施

最近几年来,因禽流感病毒感染而死亡的患者逐年增多,人禽流感在世界各地的流行已给许多国家和地区造成了不同程度的经济损失。为了更好地防止该病毒在全世界大规模流行,研究者开始重视对禽流感病原学特性、临床症状、传播途径、治疗方法及预防措施等进行研究与总结。我们针对人禽流感的研究进展及其预防与控制措施做简要概述。     

Emergence of mammalian species-infectious and -pathogenic avian influenza H6N5 virus with no evidence of adaptation

The migratory waterfowl of the world are considered to be the natural reservoir of influenza A viruses. Of the 16 hemagglutinin subtypes of avian influenza viruses, the H6 subtype is commonly perpetuated in its natural hosts and is of concern due to its potential to be a precursor of highly pathogenic influenza viruses by reassortment. During routine influenza surveillance, we isolated an unconventional H6N5 subtype of avian influenza virus. Experimental infection of mice revealed that this isolate replicated efficiently in the lungs, subsequently spread systemically, and caused lethality. The isolate also productively infected ferrets, with direct evidence of contact transmission, but no disease or transmission was seen in pigs. Although the isolate possessed the conserved receptor-binding site sequences of avian influenza viruses, it exhibited relatively low replication efficiencies in ducks and chickens. Our genetic and molecular analyses of the isolate revealed that its PB1 sequence showed the highest evolutionary relationship to those of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza viruses and that its PA protein had an isoleucine residue at position 97 (a representative virulence marker). Further studies will be required to examine why our isolate has the virologic characteristics of mammalian influenza viruses but the archetypal receptor binding profiles of avian influenza viruses, as well as to determine whether its potential virulence markers (PB1 analogous to those of H5N1 viruses or isoleucine residue at position 97 within PA) could render it highly pathogenic in mice.     

Risk maps for the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry

Devastating epidemics of highly contagious animal diseases such as avian influenza, classical swine fever, and foot-and-mouth disease underline the need for improved understanding of the factors promoting the spread of these pathogens. Here the authors present a spatial analysis of the between-farm transmission of a highly pathogenic H7N7 avian influenza virus that caused a large epidemic in The Netherlands in 2003. The authors developed a method to estimate key parameters determining the spread of highly transmissible animal diseases between farms based on outbreak data. The method allows for the identification of high-risk areas for propagating spread in an epidemiologically underpinned manner. A central concept is the transmission kernel, which determines the probability of pathogen transmission from infected to uninfected farms as a function of interfarm distance. The authors show how an estimate of the transmission kernel naturally provides estimates of the critical farm density and local reproduction numbers, which allows one to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies. For avian influenza, the analyses show that there are two poultry-dense areas in The Netherlands where epidemic spread is possible, and in which local control measures are unlikely to be able to halt an unfolding epidemic. In these regions an epidemic can only be brought to an end by the depletion of susceptible farms by infection or massive culling. The analyses provide an estimate of the spatial range over which highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses spread between farms, and emphasize that control measures aimed at controlling such outbreaks need to take into account the local density of farms.     

Genesis of pandemic influenza

During the last decade the number of reported outbreaks caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in domestic poultry has drastically increased. At the same time, low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) strains, such as H9N2 in many parts of the Middle East and Asia and H6N2 in live bird markets in California, have become endemic. Each AI outbreak brings the concomitant possibility of poultry-to-human transmission. Indeed, human illness and death have resulted from such occasional transmissions with highly pathogenic avian H7N7 and H5N1 viruses while avian H9N2 viruses have been isolated from individuals with mild influenza. The transmission of avian influenza directly from poultry to humans has brought a sense of urgency in terms of understanding the mechanisms that lead to interspecies transmission of influenza. Domestic poultry species have been previously overlooked as potential intermediate hosts in the generation of influenza viruses with the capacity to infect humans. In this review, we will discuss molecular and epidemiological aspects that have led to the recurrent emergence of avian influenza strains with pandemic potential, with a particular emphasis on the current Asian H5N1 viruses.     

Avian influenza virus

Recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in chickens and ducks that occurred in 9 Asian countries including Japan alarmed to realize that there is no border for infections and gave a rise to great concern for human health as well as for agriculture. This H5N1 virus jumped the species barrier and caused severe disease with high mortality in humans in Viet Nam and Thailand; 15 deaths of 22 cases and 8 of 12, respectively. A second concern was the possibility that the situation could give rise to another influenza pandemic in humans since genetic reassortment may occur between avian and human influenza viruses when a person is concurrently infected with viruses from both species. This process of gene swapping inside the human body can give rise to a new subtype of the influenza virus to which humans would not have immunity. The outbreaks also emphasized the need to continue active surveillance on avian influenza throughout the year to undertake aggressive emergency control measures as soon as an infection is detected.