Inferring Selective History from Multilocus Frequency Data: Wright Meets the Hamiltonian

We describe a method to study characteristics of the dynamics of multilocus population genetic models without specifying the form of selection a priori. Our approach consists of specifying initial and final genotypic frequencies (either completely or partially) and then determining the minimum time to go from the initial condition to the final condition according to a continuous time genetic model, with arbitrary constraints on the strength and possibly the form of selection. In analyzing a two-locus, two-allele model with this approach, we show that--so long as r is not much larger than s--substantial linkage disequilibrium can be generated from an initial state of linkage equilibrium in a few hundred generations. We also show that unless recombination is much larger than selection, there is only weak dependence on r of the minimum time to reach a specified state. Thus, similar strengths of selection can lead to similar levels of disequilibrium over a fixed time and a range of small recombination rates. This implies that, within the level of a single gene, selection cannot in general be assumed to lead to any particular relationship between recombination rate and levels of disequilibrium. We indicate a number of other ways in which our method can be useful in asking theoretical questions and in interpreting data.     

Inferring the Joint Demographic History of Multiple Populations from Multidimensional SNP Frequency Data

Demographic models built from genetic data play important roles in illuminating prehistorical events and serving as null models in genome scans for selection. We introduce an inference method based on the joint frequency spectrum of genetic variants within and between populations. For candidate models we numerically compute the expected spectrum using a diffusion approximation to the one-locus, two-allele Wright-Fisher process, involving up to three simultaneous populations. Our approach is a composite likelihood scheme, since linkage between neutral loci alters the variance but not the expectation of the frequency spectrum. We thus use bootstraps incorporating linkage to estimate uncertainties for parameters and significance values for hypothesis tests. Our method can also incorporate selection on single sites, predicting the joint distribution of selected alleles among populations experiencing a bevy of evolutionary forces, including expansions, contractions, migrations, and admixture. We model human expansion out of Africa and the settlement of the New World, using 5 Mb of noncoding DNA resequenced in 68 individuals from 4 populations (YRI, CHB, CEU, and MXL) by the Environmental Genome Project. We infer divergence between West African and Eurasian populations 140 thousand years ago (95% confidence interval: 40–270 kya). This is earlier than other genetic studies, in part because we incorporate migration. We estimate the European (CEU) and East Asian (CHB) divergence time to be 23 kya (95% c.i.: 17–43 kya), long after archeological evidence places modern humans in Europe. Finally, we estimate divergence between East Asians (CHB) and Mexican-Americans (MXL) of 22 kya (95% c.i.: 16.3–26.9 kya), and our analysis yields no evidence for subsequent migration. Furthermore, combining our demographic model with a previously estimated distribution of selective effects among newly arising amino acid mutations accurately predicts the frequency spectrum of nonsynonymous variants across three continental populations (YRI, CHB, CEU).     

Inferring Demographic History from a Spectrum of Shared Haplotype Lengths

There has been much recent excitement about the use of genetics to elucidate ancestral history and demography. Whole genome data from humans and other species are revealing complex stories of divergence and admixture that were left undiscovered by previous smaller data sets. A central challenge is to estimate the timing of past admixture and divergence events, for example the time at which Neanderthals exchanged genetic material with humans and the time at which modern humans left Africa. Here, we present a method for using sequence data to jointly estimate the timing and magnitude of past admixture events, along with population divergence times and changes in effective population size. We infer demography from a collection of pairwise sequence alignments by summarizing their length distribution of tracts of identity by state (IBS) and maximizing an analytic composite likelihood derived from a Markovian coalescent approximation. Recent gene flow between populations leaves behind long tracts of identity by descent (IBD), and these tracts give our method power by influencing the distribution of shared IBS tracts. In simulated data, we accurately infer the timing and strength of admixture events, population size changes, and divergence times over a variety of ancient and recent time scales. Using the same technique, we analyze deeply sequenced trio parents from the 1000 Genomes project. The data show evidence of extensive gene flow between Africa and Europe after the time of divergence as well as substructure and gene flow among ancestral hominids. In particular, we infer that recent African-European gene flow and ancient ghost admixture into Europe are both necessary to explain the spectrum of IBS sharing in the trios, rejecting simpler models that contain less population structure.     

Matrilineal Fertility Inheritance Detected in Hunter–Gatherer Populations Using the Imbalance of Gene Genealogies

Fertility inheritance, a phenomenon in which an individual's number of offspring is positively correlated with his or her number of siblings, is a cultural process that can have a strong impact on genetic diversity. Until now, fertility inheritance has been detected primarily using genealogical databases. In this study, we develop a new method to infer fertility inheritance from genetic data in human populations. The method is based on the reconstruction of the gene genealogy of a sample of sequences from a given population and on the computation of the degree of imbalance in this genealogy. We show indeed that this level of imbalance increases with the level of fertility inheritance, and that other phenomena such as hidden population structure are unlikely to generate a signal of imbalance in the genealogy that would be confounded with fertility inheritance. By applying our method to mtDNA samples from 37 human populations, we show that matrilineal fertility inheritance is more frequent in hunter–gatherer populations than in food-producer populations. One possible explanation for this result is that in hunter–gatherer populations, individuals belonging to large kin networks may benefit from stronger social support and may be more likely to have a large number of offspring.     

Formulating a Historical and Demographic Model of Recent Human Evolution Based on Resequencing Data from Noncoding Regions

Background

Estimating the historical and demographic parameters that characterize modern human populations is a fundamental part of reconstructing the recent history of our species. In addition, the development of a model of human evolution that can best explain neutral genetic diversity is required to identify confidently regions of the human genome that have been targeted by natural selection.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We have resequenced 20 independent noncoding autosomal regions dispersed throughout the genome in 213 individuals from different continental populations, corresponding to a total of ∼6 Mb of diploid resequencing data. We used these data to explore and co-estimate an extensive range of historical and demographic parameters with a statistical framework that combines the evaluation of multiple models of human evolution via a best-fit approach, followed by an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) analysis. From a methodological standpoint, evaluating the accuracy of the parameter co-estimation allowed us to identify the most accurate set of statistics to be used for the estimation of each of the different historical and demographic parameters characterizing recent human evolution.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results support a model in which modern humans left Africa through a single major dispersal event occurring ∼60,000 years ago, corresponding to a drastic reduction of ∼5 times the effective population size of the ancestral African population of ∼13,800 individuals. Subsequently, the ancestors of modern Europeans and East Asians diverged much later, ∼22,500 years ago, from the population of ancestral migrants. This late diversification of Eurasians after the African exodus points to the occurrence of a long maturation phase in which the ancestral Eurasian population was not yet diversified.     

Inferring the Structure of Social Contacts from Demographic Data in the Analysis of Infectious Diseases Spread

Social contact patterns among individuals encode the transmission route of infectious diseases and are a key ingredient in the realistic characterization and modeling of epidemics. Unfortunately, the gathering of high quality experimental data on contact patterns in human populations is a very difficult task even at the coarse level of mixing patterns among age groups. Here we propose an alternative route to the estimation of mixing patterns that relies on the construction of virtual populations parametrized with highly detailed census and demographic data. We present the modeling of the population of 26 European countries and the generation of the corresponding synthetic contact matrices among the population age groups. The method is validated by a detailed comparison with the matrices obtained in six European countries by the most extensive survey study on mixing patterns. The methodology presented here allows a large scale comparison of mixing patterns in Europe, highlighting general common features as well as country-specific differences. We find clear relations between epidemiologically relevant quantities (reproduction number and attack rate) and socio-demographic characteristics of the populations, such as the average age of the population and the duration of primary school cycle. This study provides a numerical approach for the generation of human mixing patterns that can be used to improve the accuracy of mathematical models in the absence of specific experimental data.     

Probing the Architecture of a Simple Kinetochore Using DNA–Protein Crosslinking

In budding yeast, accurate chromosome segregation requires that one and only one kinetochore assemble per chromosome. In this paper, we report the use of DNA–protein crosslinking and nondenaturing gel analysis to study the structure of CBF3, a four-protein complex that binds to the essential CDEIII region of Saccharomyces cerevisiae centromeres. We find that three subunits of CBF3 are in direct contact with CDEIII over a region of DNA that spans 80 bp. A highly asymmetric core complex containing p58^CTF13 p64^CEP3 and p110^NDC10 in direct contact with DNA forms at the genetically defined center of CDEIII. This core complex spans ~56 bp of CEN3. An extended complex comprising the core complex and additional DNA-bound p110^NDC10 also forms. It spans ~80 bp of DNA. CBF3 makes sequence-specific and -nonspecific contacts with DNA. Both contribute significantly to the energy of CBF3–DNA interaction. Moreover, important sequence-specific contacts are made with bases that are not conserved among yeast centromeres. These findings provide a foundation for understanding the organization of the CBF3–centromere complex, a structure that appears to initiate the formation of microtubule attachment sites at yeast kinetochores. These results also have implications for understanding centromere-binding proteins in higher cells.     

Demographic Divergence History of Pied Flycatcher and Collared Flycatcher Inferred from Whole-Genome Re-sequencing Data

Profound knowledge of demographic history is a prerequisite for the understanding and inference of processes involved in the evolution of population differentiation and speciation. Together with new coalescent-based methods, the recent availability of genome-wide data enables investigation of differentiation and divergence processes at unprecedented depth. We combined two powerful approaches, full Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis (ABC) and pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent modeling (PSMC), to reconstruct the demographic history of the split between two avian speciation model species, the pied flycatcher and collared flycatcher. Using whole-genome re-sequencing data from 20 individuals, we investigated 15 demographic models including different levels and patterns of gene flow, and changes in effective population size over time. ABC provided high support for recent (mode 0.3 my, range <0.7 my) species divergence, declines in effective population size of both species since their initial divergence, and unidirectional recent gene flow from pied flycatcher into collared flycatcher. The estimated divergence time and population size changes, supported by PSMC results, suggest that the ancestral species persisted through one of the glacial periods of middle Pleistocene and then split into two large populations that first increased in size before going through severe bottlenecks and expanding into their current ranges. Secondary contact appears to have been established after the last glacial maximum. The severity of the bottlenecks at the last glacial maximum is indicated by the discrepancy between current effective population sizes (20,000–80,000) and census sizes (5–50 million birds) of the two species. The recent divergence time challenges the supposition that avian speciation is a relatively slow process with extended times for intrinsic postzygotic reproductive barriers to evolve. Our study emphasizes the importance of using genome-wide data to unravel tangled demographic histories. Moreover, it constitutes one of the first examples of the inference of divergence history from genome-wide data in non-model species.     

Inferring the History of the Polyploid Silene aegaea (Caryophyllaceae) Using Plastid and Homoeologous Nuclear DNA Sequences

The origin of the rare allotetraploid Silene aegaea was inferred from plastid rps16 intron sequences, homoeologous copies of nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequences, and an intron from the nuclear gene coding for the second largest subunit of RNA polymerase II (RPB2). The nuclear DNA regions support the S. sedoides and S. pentelica lineages as most closely related to the two S. aegaea paralogues. A few recombinant ITS sequences were found, but as PCR recombination could be demonstrated, no true recombination could be demonstrated. No recombination was found in the RPB2 sequences. Plastid rps16 intron sequences strongly support S. pentelica as the maternal lineage. The strength of the approach of using homoeologous sequences of several loci is demonstrated, and its usefulness for the study of phylogenies of groups including polyploids is emphasized.     

Estimation and Short-Term Prediction of the Course of the HIV Epidemic Using Demographic and Health Survey Methodology-Like Data

Background

Mathematical models have played important roles in the understanding of epidemics and in the study of the impacts of various behavioral or medical measures. However, modeling accurately the future spread of an epidemic requires context-specific parameters that are difficult to estimate because of lack of data. Our objective is to propose a methodology to estimate context-specific parameters using Demographic and Health Survey (DHS)-like data that can be used in mathematical modeling of short-term HIV spreading.

Methods and Findings

The model splits the population according to sex, age, HIV status, and antiretroviral treatment status. To estimate context-specific parameters, we used individuals’ histories included in DHS-like data and a statistical analysis that used decomposition of the Poisson likelihood. To predict the course of the HIV epidemic, sex- and age-specific differential equations were used. This approach was applied to recent data from Kenya. The approach allowed the estimation of several key epidemiological parameters. Women had a higher infection rate than men and the highest infection rate in the youngest age groups (15–24 and 25–34 years) whereas men had the highest infection rate in age group 25–34 years. The immunosuppression rates were similar between age groups. The treatment rate was the highest in age group 35–59 years in both sexes. The results showed that, within the 15–24 year age group, increasing male circumcision coverage and antiretroviral therapy coverage at CD4 ≤ 350/mm³ over the current 70% could have short-term impacts.

Conclusions

The study succeeded in estimating the model parameters using DHS-like data rather than literature data. The analysis provides a framework for using the same data for estimation and prediction, which can improve the validity of context-specific predictions and help designing HIV prevention campaigns.     

UPA, a universal protein array system for quantitative detection of protein–protein, protein–DNA, protein–RNA and protein–ligand interactions

Protein–protein interactions have been widely used to study gene expression pathways and may be considered as a new approach to drug discovery. Here I report the development of a universal protein array (UPA) system that provides a sensitive, quantitative, multi-purpose, effective and easy technology to determine not only specific protein–protein interactions, but also specific interactions of proteins with DNA, RNA, ligands and other small chemicals. (i) Since purified proteins are used, the results can be easily interpreted. (ii) UPA can be used multiple times for different targets, making it economically affordable for most laboratories, hospitals and biotechnology companies. (iii) Unlike DNA chips or DNA microarrays, no additional instrumentation is required. (iv) Since the UPA uses active proteins (without denaturation and renaturation), it is more sensitive compared with most existing methods. (v) Because the UPA can analyze hundreds (even thousands on a protein microarray) of proteins in a single experiment, it is a very effective method to screen proteins as drug targets in cancer and other human diseases.     

Combining Genetic and Demographic Data for the Conservation of a Mediterranean Marine Habitat-Forming Species

The integration of ecological and evolutionary data is highly valuable for conservation planning. However, it has been rarely used in the marine realm, where the adequate design of marine protected areas (MPAs) is urgently needed. Here, we examined the interacting processes underlying the patterns of genetic structure and demographic strucuture of a highly vulnerable Mediterranean habitat-forming species (i.e. Paramuricea clavata (Risso, 1826)), with particular emphasis on the processes of contemporary dispersal, genetic drift, and colonization of a new population. Isolation by distance and genetic discontinuities were found, and three genetic clusters were detected; each submitted to variations in the relative impact of drift and gene flow. No founder effect was found in the new population. The interplay of ecology and evolution revealed that drift is strongly impacting the smallest, most isolated populations, where partial mortality of individuals was highest. Moreover, the eco-evolutionary analyses entailed important conservation implications for P. clavata. Our study supports the inclusion of habitat-forming organisms in the design of MPAs and highlights the need to account for genetic drift in the development of MPAs. Moreover, it reinforces the importance of integrating genetic and demographic data in marine conservation.     

Demographic Inference Using Spectral Methods on SNP Data, with an Analysis of the Human Out-of-Africa Expansion

We present an implementation of a recently introduced method for estimating the allele-frequency spectrum under the diffusion approximation. For single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) frequency data from multiple populations, the method computes numerical solutions to the allele-frequency spectrum (AFS) under a complex model that includes population splitting events, migration, population expansion, and admixture. The solution to the diffusion partial differential equation (PDE) that mimics the evolutionary process is found by means of truncated polynomial expansions. In the absence of gene flow, our computation of frequency spectra yields exact results. The results are compared to those that use a finite-difference method and to forward diffusion simulations. In general, all the methods yield comparable results, although the polynomial-based approach is the most accurate in the weak-migration limit. Also, the economical use of memory attained by the polynomial expansions makes the study of models with four populations possible for the first time. The method was applied to a four-population model of the human expansion out of Africa and the peopling of the Americas, using the Environmental Genome Project (EGP) SNP database. Although our confidence intervals largely overlapped previous analyses of these data, some were significantly different. In particular, estimates of migration among African, European, and Asian populations were considerably lower than those in a previous study and the estimated time of migration out of Africa was earlier. The estimated time of founding of a human population outside of Africa was 52,000 years (95% confidence interval: 36,000–80,800 years).     

Trauma-Related Mortality among Adults in Rural Western Kenya: Characterising Deaths Using Data from a Health and Demographic Surveillance System

Background

Information on trauma-related deaths in low and middle income countries is limited but needed to target public health interventions. Data from a health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) were examined to characterise such deaths in rural western Kenya.

Methods And Findings

Verbal autopsy data were analysed. Of 11,147 adult deaths between 2003 and 2008, 447 (4%) were attributed to trauma; 71% of these were in males. Trauma contributed 17% of all deaths in males 15 to 24 years; on a population basis mortality rates were greatest in persons over 65 years. Intentional causes accounted for a higher proportion of male than female deaths (RR 2.04, 1.37-3.04) and a higher proportion of deaths of those aged 15 to 65 than older people. Main causes in males were assaults (n=79, 25%) and road traffic injuries (n=47, 15%); and falls for females (n=17, 13%). A significantly greater proportion of deaths from poisoning (RR 5.0, 2.7-9.4) and assault (RR 1.8, 1.2-2.6) occurred among regular consumers of alcohol than among non-regular drinkers. In multivariate analysis, males had a 4-fold higher risk of death from trauma than females (Adjusted Relative Risk; ARR 4.0; 95% CI 1.7-9.4); risk of a trauma death rose with age, with the elderly at 7-fold higher risk (ARR 7.3, 1.1-49.2). Absence of care was the strongest predictor of trauma death (ARR 12.2, 9.4-15.8). Trauma-related deaths were higher among regular alcohol drinkers (ARR 1.5, 1.1-1.9) compared with non-regular drinkers.

Conclusions

While trauma accounts for a small proportion of deaths in this rural area with a high prevalence of HIV, TB and malaria, preventive interventions such as improved road safety, home safety strategies for the elderly, and curbing harmful use of alcohol, are available and could help diminish this burden. Improvements in systems to record underlying causes of death from trauma are required.     

Practicalities of Using Non-Local or Non-Recent Multilocus Sequence Typing Data for Source Attribution in Space and Time of Human Campylobacteriosis

In this study, 1208 Campylobacter jejuni and C. coli isolates from humans and 400 isolates from chicken, collected in two separate periods over 12 years in The Netherlands, were typed using multilocus sequence typing (MLST). Statistical evidence was found for a shift of ST frequencies in human isolates over time. The human MLST data were also compared to published data from other countries to determine geographical variation. Because only MLST typed data from chicken, taken from the same time point and spatial location, were available in addition to the human data, MLST datasets for other Campylobacter reservoirs from selected countries were used. The selection was based on the degree of similarity of the human isolates between countries. The main aim of this study was to better understand the consequences of using non-local or non-recent MLST data for attributing domestically acquired human Campylobacter infections to specific sources of origin when applying the asymmetric island model for source attribution. In addition, a power-analysis was done to find the minimum number of source isolates needed to perform source attribution using an asymmetric island model. This study showed that using source data from other countries can have a significant biasing effect on the attribution results so it is important to carefully select data if the available local data lack in quality and/or quantity. Methods aimed at reducing this bias were proposed.     

Preliminary Data on the Behavior,Ecology, and Morphology of Pygmy Tarsiers (<Emphasis Type=Italic>Tarsius pumilus</Emphasis>)

We here present the first behavioral, morphological, and ecological data on a living group of highland pygmy tarsiers, Tarsius pumilus, and compare them with the lowland tarsier species of Sulawesi. Pygmy tarsiers were previously known only from 3 museum specimens and had not been seen alive since the first specimens were collected in 1917 and 1930. As part of a 2-mo exploratory study, we recently located a group consisting of ≥4 pygmy tarsiers in the mossy cloud forest of Lore Lindu National Park, Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. We captured 1 adult female and 2 adult male group members. The tarsiers weighed a mean of 50 g, less than half the weight of adult lowland tarsiers. Our behavioral observations indicate that these tarsiers live in small groups that return to the same sleeping tree each morning. Though our data are preliminary, pygmy tarsier body proportions appear to differ from the lowland Sulawesian tarsier species, with relatively long hind limbs compared to total body length. We also observed differences in grouping and communication behaviors. Unlike lowland tarsiers, pygmy tarsiers possess multiple adult males per group and rarely vocalize or scentmark. These differences may correlate with variables unique to their high altitude habitat, especially a reduction in food and tree resources, given that tree density declined sharply along an altitudinal gradient. Our preliminary study identifies the importance of altitudinal ecological gradients to tarsier behavioral ecology in Central Sulawesi, providing questions and predictions for future research directions.     

Using Age-Based Life History Data to Investigate the Life Cycle and Vulnerability of Octopus cyanea

Octopus cyanea is taken as an unregulated, recreationally fished species from the intertidal reefs of Ningaloo, Western Australia. Yet despite its exploitation and importance in many artisanal fisheries throughout the world, little is known about its life history, ecology and vulnerability. We used stylet increment analysis to age a wild O. cyanea population for the first time and gonad histology to examine their reproductive characteristics. O. cyanea conforms to many cephalopod life history generalisations having rapid, non-asymptotic growth, a short life-span and high levels of mortality. Males were found to mature at much younger ages and sizes than females with reproductive activity concentrated in the spring and summer months. The female dominated sex-ratios in association with female brooding behaviours also suggest that larger conspicuous females may be more prone to capture and suggests that this intertidal octopus population has the potential to be negatively impacted in an unregulated fishery. Size at age and maturity comparisons between our temperate bordering population and lower latitude Tanzanian and Hawaiian populations indicated stark differences in growth rates that correlate with water temperatures. The variability in life history traits between global populations suggests that management of O. cyanea populations should be tailored to each unique set of life history characteristics and that stylet increment analysis may provide the integrity needed to accurately assess this.