全球陆地保护地60年增长情况分析和趋势预测

保护地建设已成为全球生物多样性保护的第一道防线。掌握其在不同尺度上的发展状况和变化趋势对保护地规划和建设有重要意义。针对已有研究在时间跨度、空间尺度以及结果对比方面的不足, 本文基于世界保护地数据库(World Database of Protected Areas, http://www.protectedplanet.net), 对全球、洲际、地区及国家尺度1950-2013年陆地保护地的增长情况进行描述和短期预测。结果发现: (1)全球保护地增长速率不断加快, 特别是在20世纪90年代以后。(2)洲际和地区保护地发展大致呈现3种增长趋势: 在美洲及大洋洲, 多数地区的保护地增长速率一直在加快; 在亚洲和欧洲, 多数地区的发展高峰出现在20世纪80、90年代; 在非洲, 多数地区的发展高峰为20世纪70年代及21世纪前10年。(3)各国保护地建设存在不平衡性, 仍有近一半国家的陆地保护地比例小于10%, 但这种差距随时间的推移有缩小的趋势。(4)绝大部分保护地增速均匀性低的国家分布在非洲。(5)虽然全球的《爱知生物多样性目标》在2020年预计不能完成, 但包括中国在内的22个国家有望如期达到目标。本文结果为未来保护地规划和建设工作的开展提供了参考依据。     

自然保护地生物多样性保护研究进展

建立自然保护地是保护生物多样性最为重要的措施之一。总体来看, 自然保护地生物多样性保护研究主要围绕关键生态系统以及珍稀濒危物种等保护对象的状态以及变化两个层面进行, 并重点关注自然保护地数量与面积、保护了多少重要生态系统和物种、能否有效保护生物多样性等一系列科学问题。然而, 在自然保护地生物多样性保护研究方面, 还缺少针对上述研究领域的系统性综述。为此, 本文系统梳理了自然保护地空间布局及其与生物多样性分布的关系、自然保护地生物多样性变化及其保护成效等近20年来相关领域的研究进展。自然保护地的空间布局以及与生物多样性分布的关系主要围绕自然保护地与生物多样性在某一阶段的状态开展研究, 致力于探究自然保护地“保护多少” “代表性如何” “在哪儿保护”等一系列关键科学问题。同时, 自然保护地内的生物多样性会随着气候变化、人类活动以及自身演替等发生时空动态变化, 基于自然保护地生物多样性变化分析, 各国学者在全球尺度、国家尺度和单个自然保护地进行了大量的保护成效评估研究, 并逐渐发展出了自然保护地内外配对分析方法以提升保护成效评估的精度, 进而识别出不同自然保护地的主要影响因素。在此基础上, 本文进一步对自然保护地生物多样性保护研究提出了展望, 主要包括: (1)综合考虑自然保护地生物多样性状态和变化; (2)开展多目标协同的自然保护地空间优化布局; (3)强化自然保护地主要保护对象的识别、调查与监测; (4)提升自然保护地的质量和连通性; (5)探究自然保护地管理措施与保护成效的关联机制。本文可为“2020年后全球生物多样性框架”的制定与实施特别是在自然保护地体系建设与优化方面提供参考与借鉴。     

大兴安岭地区重点保护和珍稀动物保护空缺分析

大兴安岭地区是我国唯一的寒温带针叶林生态区, 具有全球重要性和特殊的自然保护价值。本研究针对该地区重点保护及珍稀动物未全部纳入保护地范围以及保护地分布破碎化的现状, 在建立物种信息数据库的基础上, 生成该地区重点保护及珍稀动物10 km × 10 km物种空间分布数据, 并结合土地利用、植被覆盖、海拔和坡度等与栖息地相关的辅助数据, 分析重点保护及珍稀动物的现有空间分布格局, 以Shannon-Wiener多样性指数作为重点保护和珍稀动物的丰富度指标, 通过将现有保护地范围与物种空间分布进行叠加, 得到重点保护及珍稀动物的保护空缺。结果显示: (1)现有空缺区域内濒危、易危和近危物种均有分布, 主要保护空缺对象有黑嘴松鸡(Tetrao parvirostris)、紫貂(Martes zibellina)、小天鹅(Cygnus columbianus)等; (2)保护程度较高的区域主要位于额尔古纳市北部和呼玛县西部等地。尽管重点保护和珍稀动物的空间分布与现有保护地范围基本匹配, 但不同地理空间仍存在不同程度的保护空缺; (3)保护空缺主要有两种类型, 即尚未受到保护的空白地区和未被完全纳入现有保护地的空缺地。基于以上结果, 建议针对两类不同的保护空缺采取不同的保护措施, 如对于根河市与牙克石市交界处未建立保护地的保护空白区, 建议新建保护区或保护小区; 对于重点保护和珍稀动物未被完全纳入现有保护地体系的区域, 如内蒙古阿尔山自然保护区北部外延的空缺地, 建议通过对现有保护地进行相应程度的扩建, 完善现有保护地体系, 从而促进大兴安岭地区重点保护及珍稀动物的保护进程。     

基于社会网络分析的全球自然保护地治理模式研究

治理模式的选择在自然保护地有效治理过程中起着关键作用,适宜的治理模式是实现保护地生态、社会、经济和文化效益最大化的重要途径。但是,目前国内外保护地体制机制研究大多集中在保护地治理模式的理论体系分析、体制机制构建与经验总结等方面,缺乏对全球尺度上自然保护地治理模式的系统分析,尤其是对于目前全球保护地网络的治理模式呈现何种结构,以及各类治理模式之间是否存在关联性等更未涉及。为弥补此短板,对IUCN全球保护地数据库中全球保护地的治理模式进行统计分析,结果表明:全球自然保护地治理模式主要呈现以"政府治理"为主,其他治理模式为辅的多样化状态,并且治理模式随保护地的空间分布及保护地类型的不同呈现差异性;进一步,利用社会网络分析法对全球保护地治理模式结构进行定量与定性相结合的系统分析,分析结果表明:目前全球自然保护地治理模式呈现一个较明显的双中心"核心-边缘"网络结构特征,形成以"联邦政府或国家部门/机构"、"地方政府部门/机构"为主要治理模式,"合作管理"为次要治理模式的核心圈,在边缘处形成以"通过社区建立和管理"的治理模式为主的独立中心,说明保护地社区治理模式的重要性不容忽视;并且通过研究发现"地方政府部门/机构"与"通过非营利组织",以及"通过社区"、"通过个人土地所有者"、"政府授权管理"这两组治理模式内部的治理模式间呈现较强的关联性,这表明同一国家/地区倾向于同时采用有关联的保护地治理模式。     

自然保护地保护成效评估: 进展与展望

自然保护地(protected areas)保护成效是指自然保护地对主要保护对象的保护效果, 及其在维持生物多样性和保障生态系统服务功能等方面的综合成效。近年来自然保护地保护成效评估逐渐成为国内外的研究热点之一。 本文分别从不同空间尺度、评估对象、评估方法以及评估指标等方面综述了相关的研究进展。总体来看, 近年来的研究已基本覆盖了全球、区域、国家和单个自然保护地等不同尺度, 针对森林、湿地、草地和荒漠等代表性生态系统以及野生动植物等主要保护对象进行了评估, 发展了“matching”技术等更为有效的分析方法, 探索了系统的自然保护地保护成效评估指标体系, 并应用一些指标进行了保护成效的案例研究。自然保护区(nature reserve)是我国自然保护地的主体, 近年来我国自然保护区相关管理部门也相继开展了保护成效评估工作, 建议未来进一步加强自然保护区网络尺度和各类型自然保护区的保护成效评估研究, 将自然保护区保护成效评估与管理评估相结合, 研究自然保护区保护成效面临的新问题和潜在影响, 为提升我国自然保护区管理质量提供科学依据。     

国外生态保护地体系对我国生态保护红线划定与管理的启示

中国共产党第十八届三中全会和《环境保护法》明确提出依法划定生态保护红线, 实施最为严格的源头保护制度。世界上大多数国家都实行了将天然或近天然的区域划作保护地、建立生态空间体系对物种及其生境进行保护。在国际上虽未有“生态保护红线”这一提法, 但是划定生态保护区域的做法是相似的。作者基于相关文献, 对世界自然保护联盟(IUCN)保护地系统, 以及美国、欧盟、俄罗斯、日本等地区和国家的生态保护地(区)体系的保护地面积和管理实践进行了系统梳理和总结。大多数国家的生态保护地(区)的面积在5-40%之间, 并建立了专门的保护管理职能部门或成立了多部门分工负责的管理体制, 根据人类活动强度的不同制定差异化的管控措施。对比我国现有保护地体系的空缺分析以及保护地分类管理中存在的问题, 本文提出了整合与优化我国现有各类保护区域, 通过重要性、敏感性评价对在生态系统服务功能、生物多样性和生境保护方面作用最为重要的土地优先划入生态保护红线内, 面积比例以占到陆地国土总面积的30%以上为宜。为严守生态保护红线, 根据我国现有部门职能分工, 建议强化环境保护部门对生态保护红线区域的统一监督管理职能, 制定生态保护红线管理办法, 在生态保护红线区域内实行分级分类管理。     

中国与公海保护地建设

近10年来,海洋保护迅速成为全球环境治理的热点议题。作为一种综合性的管理工具,海洋保护地也受到了广泛的重视,其应用在世界各地也有很大的发展。根据世界自然保护联盟(IUCN)最新统计资料,海洋保护地面积占海洋总面积的比例依然远远低于陆地,但是国家管辖内海域的保护比例又高于陆地,公海保护地的面积只占公海总面积的1.2%。     

全球视角下的中国生物多样性监测进展与展望

生物多样性强烈的时空尺度依赖性和多层次性决定了生物多样性现状与变量的分析需要在不同生态系统进行多空间尺度、全面和连续的监测。因此, 构建生物多样性研究监测网络是生物多样性保护和研究的基础工作。近年来, 对地观测组织-生物多样性观测网络(GEO BON)、亚太生物多样性监测网络(APBON)等全球、区域以及国家尺度的生物多样性监测网络蓬勃发展。中国陆续在国家尺度上建立了针对生态系统和物种的长期监测网络, 其中, 中国生物多样性监测与研究网络(China Biodiversity Observation and Research Network, Sino BON)于2013年启动建设, 在我国主要生态系统和环境梯度设置30个监测主点和60个监测辅点, 目前已建成10个专项网对动物、植物和微生物进行监测, 并建立了以数据标准与汇交、近地面遥感为核心的综合监测中心。Sino BON打造了从地下、地面到森林林冠的多尺度、多类群(功能群)以及多营养级交互为重点的监测与研究平台, 为理解生物多样性变化趋势及其驱动因素、研究生物多样性维持机制, 以及国家履行《生物多样性公约》、保护生物多样性和生物资源提供详实可靠的生物多样性变化数据。为进一步支撑国家生物多样性治理能力、深化全球多样性保护合作, 我国生物多样性监测亟需在监测技术、监测区域、数据标准、综合信息平台等方向谋求更大的发展。     

城市空气污染对周边区域空气质量的影响

京津冀地区是全球以PM_(2.5)为首要污染物的空气污染最严重的区域之一,并已严重制约区域发展。大区域尺度上(例全国尺度)开展城市与其周边区域的PM_(2.5)的研究通常直接比较二者的浓度差异,以定量地评估城市PM_(2.5)污染对周边区域的影响,但这种方法在小区域较难精细地刻画城市对周边区域的影响的方向性和距离性差异。利用京津冀地区13个城市2000年,2005年,2010年,2015年PM_(2.5)浓度和土地覆盖类型数据,以城市重心到城市边界的平均距离为基本距离,建立每个城市的一级(一倍基本距离)和二级(二倍基本距离)缓冲区,然后将缓冲区分成8个象限,以定量分析城市PM_(2.5)污染对周边区域影响的方向性和距离差异。结果发现:(1)2000—2015年,京津冀城市群各地级市与周边区域空气质量时空分布分为以下两种模式:第一种模式是城区浓度高,周边区域低;第二种模式是城区浓度低,周边区域高且浓度差异很小。(2)各地级市对周边区域影响程度和范围呈上升趋势,并且这种影响具体表现在距离性和方向性两方面:(1)大部分城市距离城区越远,受城市PM_(2.5)污染的潜在影响越大。(2)2000—2015年,除天津、廊坊、衡水和沧州,其余城市空气污染对周边影响的方向性特征差异显著。通过建立城市空气污染对周边区域定量化方法并在京津冀开展实证研究,拓展了城市空气污染对周边区域空气质量影响研究的方法体系,为定量地开展城市化的生态环境效应研究提供了方法和实证拓展。     

福建省自然保护地管理有效性评估——基于保护地快速评估和优先性确定方法

在自然保护地管理体制改革之际,对保护地开展管理有效性评价可以识别保护地面临的威胁与压力,确定保护地管理工作的优先性。研究以保护地快速评估和优先性确定方法(Rapid Assessment and Prioritization of Protected Areas Management, RAPPAM)为基础,结合福建省省情优化管理评价指标体系,对福建省9个地级市的53处自然保护地开展管理有效性评估,识别自然保护地面临的主要压力与威胁,分析保护地管理上的优劣势,并选用斯皮尔曼相关性分析,识别有利于减轻保护地威胁的相关管理环节,为福建省保护地管理工作的优先性调整提供参考。结果表明：(1)福建省自然保护地面临的主要威胁和压力依次为火灾、种养殖、虫害、环境污染和旅游,其中,环境污染与旅游对保护地的影响严重。(2)福建省自然保护地体系管理水平总体一般,存在地域性差异。自然保护地普遍存在多头管理、管理投入不足、管理实施计划缺失等问题。(3)由斯皮尔曼关联性分析可知,保护地管理过程与投入的提升有助于降低火灾、虫害、种养殖的威胁。环境污染和旅游威胁受宏观经济发展、保护地及周边用地规划影响显著。     

A comparison of Australia’s anuran records against the reserve system

We compared the location of anuran site records with the protected area network of Australia. We determined how many sites fell within protected areas (PAs) and assessed whether the available distribution of record sites matched that which could be expected by random chance. We also determined the number of PAs that each species was located in and how many were larger (>1,000 ha) PAs. A total of 25,961 from 96,947 record sites (26.78%) for 211 anuran species fell within 1 of 7,416 International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) criteria “reserves” that protect 7,689,024 ha (10.54%) of mainland Australia. One hundred and sixty-nine species represented by >30 records had a mean 30.05% of record sites within PAs, with 36 species having >45% of record sites in PAs and 18 species <10% of record sites within PAs. Highly “reserved” species are typically montane, prefer rainforest, and have small distributional ranges. Poorly “reserved” species either occur in northern Australia or within highly productive and poorly protected agricultural lands of eastern and western Australia. Several species from coastal eastern Australia have relatively high proportions of record sites within PAs (e.g., Litoria olongburensis and Uperoleia tyleri), even though they are generally believed to be threatened by habitat loss. The number of records available for each species was related to the area of occupancy and the length of calling season, but not to the relative frequency of calling activity. The number of record sites in reserves was greater than expected by chance and most species of frogs are found in many reserves. Species dependent on native vegetation that are prevalent in agricultural areas represent the most pressing issue, as there is already low reservation of such habitats and the remaining native vegetation continues to be cleared.     

The scientific value of Amazonian protected areas

Protected areas (PAs) are under increasing pressure to demonstrate their broader value and contribution to society. Scientific research and associated knowledge production comprise one such value, which has received relatively little attention in the academic literature. Here, we use the Amazon region as a case study to quantify scientific knowledge production (as measured by scientific publications in peer-reviewed journals) in PAs and identify the main biophysical, geographical and social characteristics that influence such production. We adopt a multi-model inference approach with an innovative hurdle regression model to independently assess the factors influencing the presence of research and the number of studies in PAs. Our results indicate a highly skewed pattern of scientific production, with many PAs with few or no associated scientific articles. Larger, older and more highly protected PAs in Ecuador and Peru were most likely to have scientific production, while time since first publication was most strongly associated with the number of publications from a PA. These findings provide important insights that could be used to support and strengthen policy aimed at increasing the value of Amazonian protected areas for scientific research.     

Interface processes between protected and unprotected areas: A global review and ways forward

Land‐use changes and the expansion of protected areas (PAs) have amplified the interaction between protected and unprotected areas worldwide. In this context, ‘interface processes' (human–nature and cross‐boundary interactions inside and around PAs) have become central to issues around the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. This scientific literature review aimed to explore current knowledge and research gaps on interface processes regarding terrestrial PAs. At first, 3,515 references related to the topic were extracted through a standardized search on the Web of Science and analyzed with scientometric techniques. Next, a full‐text analysis was conducted on a sample of 240 research papers. A keyword analysis revealed a wide diversity of research topics, from ‘pure' ecology to sociopolitical research. We found a bias in the geographical distribution of research, with half the papers focusing on eight countries. Additionally, we found that the spatial extent of cross‐boundary interactions was rarely assessed, preventing any clear delimitation of PA interactive zones. In the 240 research papers we scanned, we identified 403 processes that were studied. The ecological effects of PAs were well documented and appeared to be positive overall. In contrast, the effects of PAs on local communities were understudied and, according to the literature focusing on these, were very variable according to local contexts. Our findings highlight key research advances on interface processes, especially regarding the ecological outcomes of PAs, the influence of human activities on biodiversity, and PA governance issues. In contrast, main knowledge gaps concern the spatial extent of interactive zones, as well as the interactions between local people and conservation actions and how to promote synergies between them. While the review was limited to terrestrial PAs, its findings allow us to propose research priorities for tackling environmental and socioeconomic challenges in the face of a rapidly changing world.     

Effectiveness of strict vs. multiple use protected areas in reducing tropical forest fires: a global analysis using matching methods

Protected areas (PAs) cover a quarter of the tropical forest estate. Yet there is debate over the effectiveness of PAs in reducing deforestation, especially when local people have rights to use the forest. A key analytic problem is the likely placement of PAs on marginal lands with low pressure for deforestation, biasing comparisons between protected and unprotected areas. Using matching techniques to control for this bias, this paper analyzes the global tropical forest biome using forest fires as a high resolution proxy for deforestation; disaggregates impacts by remoteness, a proxy for deforestation pressure; and compares strictly protected vs. multiple use PAs vs indigenous areas. Fire activity was overlaid on a 1 km map of tropical forest extent in 2000; land use change was inferred for any point experiencing one or more fires. Sampled points in pre-2000 PAs were matched with randomly selected never-protected points in the same country. Matching criteria included distance to road network, distance to major cities, elevation and slope, and rainfall. In Latin America and Asia, strict PAs substantially reduced fire incidence, but multi-use PAs were even more effective. In Latin America, where there is data on indigenous areas, these areas reduce forest fire incidence by 16 percentage points, over two and a half times as much as naïve (unmatched) comparison with unprotected areas would suggest. In Africa, more recently established strict PAs appear to be effective, but multi-use tropical forest protected areas yield few sample points, and their impacts are not robustly estimated. These results suggest that forest protection can contribute both to biodiversity conservation and CO2 mitigation goals, with particular relevance to the REDD agenda. Encouragingly, indigenous areas and multi-use protected areas can help to accomplish these goals, suggesting some compatibility between global environmental goals and support for local livelihoods.     

Multi-criteria spatial identification of carnivore conservation areas under data scarcity and conflict: a jaguar case study in Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta,Colombia

Human–wildlife conflict, habitat loss, and prey hunting are the main threats to carnivore species worldwide. Forest conversion as consequence of deforestation and agricultural expansion increases the proximity between carnivores and humans, thereby escalating conflicts. Knowledge about carnivore species in data-poor countries, such as Colombia, is scarce which has the potential to result in poor landscape planning decisions. For many species, the only existing spatial information resides in expert-driven approaches which result in coarse-resolution ‘extent-of-occurrence’ maps. There is an increasing need for the development of methodologies to identify conservation and management areas at appropriate scales. Multi-criteria approaches will allow the inclusion of diverse species attributes enabling environmental institutions to address complex landscape decisions that result in conservation and management of carnivore habitat. We present a multi-criteria spatial identification tool for conservation and management areas, focused on Jaguars (Panthera onca) in the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta, in northern Colombia. Our approach identifies areas based on the relationship between three spatial criteria: (1) suitable habitat patches, (2) habitat connectivity, and (3) zones of higher likelihood of human–jaguar conflict. We identified areas with the presence of at least one spatial criteria in 32% of the study area. Only 16.28% of these occur within protected areas (PAs) and the remaining fall on private lands (83.72%), either within (35.68%) or outside (48.04%) buffer zones of PAs. Our results highlight the need for multi-stakeholder collaborative approaches given that most proposed conservation areas fall on private rather than public lands.     

American Exceptionalism: Population Trends and Flight Initiation Distances in Birds from Three Continents

Background

All organisms may be affected by humans'' increasing impact on Earth, but there are many potential drivers of population trends and the relative importance of each remains largely unknown. The causes of spatial patterns in population trends and their relationship with animal responses to human proximity are even less known.

Methodology/Principal Finding

We investigated the relationship between population trends of 193 species of bird in North America, Australia and Europe and flight initiation distance (FID); the distance at which birds take flight when approached by a human. While there is an expected negative relationship between population trend and FID in Australia and Europe, we found the inverse relationship for North American birds; thus FID cannot be used as a universal predictor of vulnerability of birds. However, the analysis of the joint explanatory ability of multiple drivers (farmland breeding habitat, pole-most breeding latitude, migratory habit, FID) effects on population status replicated previously reported strong effects of farmland breeding habitat (an effect apparently driven mostly by European birds), as well as strong effects of FID, body size, migratory habit and continent. Farmland birds are generally declining.

Conclusions/Significance

Flight initiation distance is related to population trends in a way that differs among continents opening new research possibilities concerning the causes of geographic differences in patterns of anti-predator behavior.     

Assessing habitat diversity and potential areas of similarity across protected areas globally

Biophysical characterization analyses of protected areas (PA) that provide information on their ecological values and potential areas with similar characteristics are needed to make informed PA network planning and management decisions. This study combines and further develops methodologies that use remote sensing and modelling to identify habitat functional types in PAs and map similar areas at the ecoregion level. The study also develops new terrestrial habitat diversity and irreplaceability indices at habitat and PA scale that allow the comparison and ranking of PAs in terms of biophysical gradients and singular environmental conditions. Six PAs were selected to highlight and discuss the results of the proposed methodology. Both individual and composite indices should be considered when trying to compare PAs to understand the overall complexity and ecological values of each PA. Results can inform planning and management of individual and protected area networks as well as identify new areas for conservation. The information provided by the model about similar habitats outside protected areas can also help assess their representativeness and support studies to strengthen ecological connectivity. Besides systematic comparisons, detailed assessments of protected areas can also be performed using medium and high-resolution input variables. This is especially relevant for protected areas in developing countries where undertaking fieldwork is very difficult and the budget devoted to conservation is limited.     

Role of African protected areas in maintaining connectivity for large mammals

The African protected area (PA) network has the potential to act as a set of functionally interconnected patches that conserve meta-populations of mammal species, but individual PAs are vulnerable to habitat change which may disrupt connectivity and increase extinction risk. Individual PAs have different roles in maintaining connectivity, depending on their size and location. We measured their contribution to network connectivity (irreplaceability) for carnivores and ungulates and combined it with a measure of vulnerability based on a 30-year trend in remotely sensed vegetation cover (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index). Highly irreplaceable PAs occurred mainly in southern and eastern Africa. Vegetation cover change was generally faster outside than inside PAs and particularly so in southern Africa. The extent of change increased with the distance from PAs. About 5% of highly irreplaceable PAs experienced a faster vegetation cover loss than their surroundings, thus requiring particular conservation attention. Our analysis identified PAs at risk whose isolation would disrupt the connectivity of the PA network for large mammals. This is an example of how ecological spatial modelling can be combined with large-scale remote sensing data to investigate how land cover change may affect ecological processes and species conservation.     

Protected areas: mixed success in conserving East Africa's evergreen forests

In East Africa, human population growth and demands for natural resources cause forest loss contributing to increased carbon emissions and reduced biodiversity. Protected Areas (PAs) are intended to conserve habitats and species. Variability in PA effectiveness and 'leakage' (here defined as displacement of deforestation) may lead to different trends in forest loss within, and adjacent to, existing PAs. Here, we quantify spatial variation in trends of evergreen forest coverage in East Africa between 2001 and 2009, and test for correlations with forest accessibility and environmental drivers. We investigate PA effectiveness at local, landscape and national scales, comparing rates of deforestation within park boundaries with those detected in park buffer zones and in unprotected land more generally. Background forest loss (BFL) was estimated at -9.3% (17,167 km(2)), but varied between countries (range: -0.9% to -85.7%; note: no BFL in South Sudan). We document high variability in PA effectiveness within and between PA categories. The most successful PAs were National Parks, although only 26 out of 48 parks increased or maintained their forest area (i.e. Effective parks). Forest Reserves (Ineffective parks, i.e. parks that lose forest from within boundaries: 204 out of 337), Nature Reserves (six out of 12) and Game Parks (24 out of 26) were more likely to lose forest cover. Forest loss in buffer zones around PAs exceeded background forest loss, in some areas indicating leakage driven by Effective National Parks. Human pressure, forest accessibility, protection status, distance to fires and long-term annual rainfall were highly significant drivers of forest loss in East Africa. Some of these factors can be addressed by adjusting park management. However, addressing close links between livelihoods, natural capital and poverty remains a fundamental challenge in East Africa's forest conservation efforts.